at first you don't succeed , try again and again and again. u.k. prime minister boris johnson will try to get his brexit deal approved in parliament as the eu weighs extension. thinghink the biggest donald trump has is the relation to critics and the terms of trade. alix: kristi lagarde says global growth is all about trade -- christine lagarde says global growth is all about trade. and industrials and the consumer. of earningslf reports this week. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this monday, october 21. in the markets, it's all about reading through on brexit and what it winds up meaning for the currency market and yields. yields higher, cable rate really whippy. now we are flat on the day. those of the takeaways leading

to a weaker dollar and higher yields across the globe. time now for global exchange. we are going to bring you today's market moving news from all around the world. our bloomberg voices are on the ground with this morning's top stories. we want to start with the breaking news in the u.k. the pound is strengthening against the dollar on brexit optimism. francine lacqua is live at westminster. give us the lay of the land as we start trading this morning. francine: i have to say, you are absolutely right. you have to look at the currency. there's this renewed optimism after a lot of ministers say they will be able to pass this first, we don't know whether boris johnson will be eight able to push his deal once again through a vote in parliament. cow in the past has

said no because this is the same deal. we could have various moments forcing the prime minister to ask for a referendum or forcing the u.k. to stay in the customs union. if it gets amended, word on the ground is that the prime minister will pull his deal, and what comes after that, we are not sure. we are waiting for the eu to say yes to the extension that the u.k. asked last saturday. alix: what is the probability that there will be some kind of extension? francine: it was interesting. the mood of the music last thursday at the eu brussels summit was first, the european commission president jean-claude juncker saying we will not extend. then you had macron saying they would extend. i would see it very difficult for the eu to say no because they will be blamed for a hard brexit.

from what i'm hearing on the ground in brussels, that's the last thing they want to be blamed that. alix: thank you so much. sort of a rowdy set there at westminster. in asia, we are seeing signs of how the trade war is eroding the global economy. exports in japan, south korea, taiwan extending declines. selina wang joins us from edging. walk us -- from beijing. walk us through the data and give us the perspective. china appears on course for this tentative deal. we are not seeing any momentum in trade risk. exports during the first 20 days of october falling when he percent -- falling 20% from a year earlier. of course, in addition to the u.s.-china trade war, south korea is hurt by trade with

21%., dropping a whopping inan's exports dropped september, also pressured by week. overseas. demand that is extending the longest --line streak since only 16 since 2016. not to mention the tie exports -- the thai exports dropping, as well as in taiwan. alix: thank you so much, bloomberg's selina wang. now to canada, where elections will be held today between interest year and justin trudeau -- between andrew scheer and justin trudeau. reporter: the question is whether any party can get a majority. it looks like justin trudeau

will probably end up with the most, but he will have to gather the support of a left-leaning party. he will likely expand his forecast deficits if he governs with the support of a left leaning party. alix: if there needs to be a coalition going forward, what will you have to give up to get that done? reporter: it's a good question. one question would be the pipeline he bought. they are still trying to build that. his most obvious coalition partner doesn't want it built. candidates usually don't do formal coalitions. they tend to take it vote by vote, and trudeau might do the same. but we don't know. it looks like there's some late momentum in his favor, so it's possible he could get a fairly wide margin that would be more comfortable, but the narrow

minority could get a little more unpredictable. alix: thank you. emergencya state of has been declared as protests grow violent against government plans to increase subway fares. this really came as a shock to the international community that things would get so volatile so quickly in a country that looks to be stable in latin america. reporter: i agree completely. it took everybody by surprise, especially because the protests started mostly by students jumping be turnstiles in the metro. they would use social media to coordinate the events before, and then just run into the subway, and it was a disruption, and they would leave. wouldter saying they tough and security and call a state of emergency, this has gone violent way too fast. --ht now, there's the port there's reports of between eight

and 11 people dead. more than $300 million in damages to the metro. the images out today are of people trying to get to work, the subways working only partially. there are buses crammed with people. they have been two nights with a curfew. helicopter sounds during the whole night, reports of vandalism. you seen the images. have beents attacked and burned, and some banks as well. came as aast night surprise because it was much noe belligerent, with mention of the word dialogue to try to appease the situation. he said that chile is basically at war, and either you join us or you are against us. he spoke of an organized opposition or an organized violence group. this has caused some people to

react. copper worker unions are announcing strikes for today or stoppages for today, and maybe even a strike in the rest of the week. several sectors criticizing the speech that he gave, even after he suspended the subway fare increase saturday evening. alix: eduardo, thank you very much. those pictures are just unbelievable. another story we are all watching this morning, even some diehard trump fans say the president went a little too far, and i may have been one of the reasons the president reversed his decision to hold next year's g7 summit at his doral resort. mick mulvaney, acting chief of staff, discussed it over the weekend. >>, he still considers himself , he- at the end of the day

still considers himself in the hospitality business. he wanted to put on the best show, the best visit he could manage. alix: now mick mulvaney's career could be in jeopardy. coming up on this program, much more on your morning trade and analysis in the markets in today's first take. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time now for bloomberg first take. in-housee from our panel of wall street veterans and insiders, gina martin adams , and alsot cignarella here on set with us, marvin loh,

state street global macro strategist. vince, what do traders do this morning? vincent: pretty much just play the flows, i think. the decision is not going to come today. the decision is not likely to come tomorrow. we are still when a trading range for sterling, but probably base,g at 1.28 at the 1.30 and i have on the topside. if someone comes in them wants to buy it, you buy it. if someone wants to sell it, you sell it. marvin: absolutely. we've got the ranges. we saw the high 1.35 over the summer when it looks like there was a deal coming. heavy lifting is still forthcoming. this just gets them to a point where they can actually negotiate a deal. when do you think the market starts to focus on what a deal looks like? alix: we forget that actually

has to happen. marvin: mid-2020 is something people need to start thinking about because you need to put stuff on paper to get things done by the end of 2020, or else we start looking at another delay. everyone is gina: already sort of position for nothing to happen. if something eventually does happen with brexit or trade or with any sort of policy resolution, it could create a pretty volatile reaction and all asset classes. i do think it's really difficult as an investor at this particular point in time. u.k. stocks are the cheapest in the world. they are going to remain the cheapest in the world yet. everyone is chomping at the bet for when i will have a resolution because at that point, i've got to consider this a component of my global portfolio. that does bring in what morgan said, that you basically want to get into stocks.

this brings a rotation into european equities. they are overweight european banks. too soon or smart? vincent: thing about where everyone was maybe a month ago when we talk about it on the show. it's all garbage. now we are at 1.30, and you feel like you misty boat. you haven't. there is still a long way to go. get really choppy 25.around 1.3 but at the end of the day, you would think we have to get to an end game eventually. at that end game, u.k. assets or the place to be. they are the cheapest ones. that goes for real estate in london to u.k. stocks to gilts, etc. marvin: certainly from a valuation perspective, that thes a lot of sense, but

economy as it exists, whether we are talking about the u.s., talking about the world now versus six months ago is a very different place. certainly it has punted central banks to do what they felt they needed to do, but there are headwinds out there. dealing with brexit and dealing with a free-trade agreement when your whole world is slowing down, like we heard from the imf and all the finance leaders last week, is just another challenge. that comes into the discussion ultimately. alix: but is it the earnings we've seen -- but the earnings we've seen haven't been terrible. it could have been worse, and clearly we are going to get a lot of read through this week. i think you make a really good point. you have to hedge because we are just at the very beginning of earnings season. some tech and industrial and health care companies that have reported, and across the

board, beating expectations. but then again, and what earnings season do they not beat expectations? honestly, last week was really interesting because even though most of the financials beat current quarter expectations, the future reporters yet to come through continue to pummel forecasts. they keep pushing down where they're going to go so that they can beat expectations. when you look into 2020, nothing has changed. about managing expectations for third quarter. we've got to come in better than what we suggest we will get. is a lot of manipulation in the short term. what we try to get is a readthrough. are you actually going to see a justification in sales? we just haven't seen any change. alix: people on the conference calls were not talking. we are not going to give you 2020. we are not saying anything. how do you deal with that?

that's nuts. tough.t's as an equity investor, you are of a slew looking for forward forecasts. currently, the sell side forecast is clearly not what the investor base is expecting. i think you have to balance that. if you should just we are getting 10% earnings growth, no one is invested on that premise. you can see a decent amount of downward revision estimates and not have significant down pressure on stocks. that said, if you start getting commentary that we are not going to get that single-digit growth, that is the risk that comes out of this earnings season. if there is a place we are going to see it, it probably is the companies in the world most exposed to overseas risk and dollar strength, which is been the story for most of this year. marvin: i think investors have

most certainly been position for that global growth slowed down. estimates around tdb continue to come down around the world, and just in terms of how sector performance has worked, anything that has international exposure, anything more trade focused because we still don't have any resolution on trade has not percent -- has not dissipated to the same degree. vincent: i would worry about the next one because of the trade situation, the delays of the tariffs to december. i feel at that has brought fourth quarter growth into the first quarter. industrial markets and corporations bringing product in and bringing up inventory so as not to have the tariffs weigh on their profitability. if you bring that it to the third and fourth quarter, it has to come from somewhere. alix: how do you have a model for that?

vincent: you can't. you can watch and wait out the industrial sector because eventually, the inventories will go loss, and then you have to rebuy and build up again, but depends onat lasts how it is coming off the shelves. gina: we put almost 30% growth in the s&p 500 in third quarter 2018. that comp gets a lot easier going forward. don't end of the first quarter, you only have to be at 0% growth. i think you have to consider this in your general view. look at where we've been and how much we've comped going forward. analysts are, forecasting 5%. i think you want to consider where the sequence of earnings growth has gone, the fact that

we just came off a peak. alix: what i find really everyoneng is how glum winds up pounding, but no action. "with the facts in plain sight and the need for policy changes all too apparent, central bankers have some little sense of urgency and even less signs of action. the world could be stumbling into the next global recession. you're laughing. vincent: i'm laughing at the "unhinged administration." [laughter] alix: but no one is doing anything. you can wax poetic about all the issues. vincent: you are not going to hear it from the central banks. i imagine draghi will give us the truth, but you will not hear from central bankers now because they do not want to cause a

panic. alix: but yet, we have seen yields climb higher. i feel like that would have been ridiculous a few months ago. gina: if you think about where we stand, the anomaly in this cycle was really qt. when the fed started tightening the balance sheet, that was unusual. the balance sheet tends to increase over time. to go through quantitative typing restricting growth in the flow of capital was pretty anomalous. we came through it smelling like roses. what is normal in an environment where we've got this balance sheet that is enormously inflated in the first years of the cycle? now we got to normalize that balance sheet, so there's a lot of volatility in the bond market as a result. where the balance sheet has upward status is a pretty major victory for central banks, where six month ago we were talking

about, we are in an inverted curve. such low growth expectations and have upward sloping curves to me as a victory. . marvin: there's so much in that change of the curve and central-bank policy that went into the s&p this year. over the last two years, s&p is up only 4%, 5%. all certain degree, we are traders. we've us to that 20%, effectively put into the market seven to eight rate cuts, going from three hikes in the beginning of the year, and then for pricing. if central bankers actually start to push back, are we back and another situation where the volatility and interest rates have driven a lot of the risk-taking we seen so far? the fact that we got these geopolitical sermons, how do we

model? we don't. we don't know how to. ultimately, we take a position, but we are just one tweet away from a complete change. its way into data and we have more clarity on what interest rates are going to look our, what we will use in models, we will adjust accordingly. alix: really great morning conversation. gina martin adams and vincent cignarella, and marvin loh estate street will be sticking with me. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak." shares of wirecard are rising. the digital payment company ,ired kpmg to conduct an audit the latest attempt to calm investors rattled by reports of accounting irregularities.

boeing says it told u.s. regulators many times of changes to flight control software on the boeing 737 max. that software was later linked to two fatal crashes. the faa had criticized boeing for not revealing negative comments about the software from pilots. alix: thanks so much. it was a flight for the record book, qantas' flight from new york to cindy. it lasted 19 -- to sydney. it lasted 19 a half hours. there were only a couple of passengers on board. they made them do exercises and regulated when they could eat and sleep. coming up, recession fears on the rise in the u.s. yields are climbing higher. we will look ahead this week. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." it's really all about the news flow with brexit devising what's

happening with the equity markets. s&p futures sitting on the 3000 to push above it and sustain it. aboverate just pushing 1.30. across the board, you're seeing yields move higher, curves move steeper, not dramatically, but nonetheless. are almost certain the fed will cut rates at the end of this month. policymakers have done little to the spell the notion -- to dispel the notion that cuts are coming. here's what larry summers said when he spoke to bloomberg friday. >> a 35 percent chance of a recession having started by the end of 2020, that feels in the neighborhood of right, perhaps slightly optimistic relative to my guesses. you've got the prospect of the

decline in confidence as people start to see a recession, and that becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. there's a sense that policy can't do a lot about it. alix: marvin loh of state street is still with me. do you get the feeling we are at 35% chance of recession? marvin: i still think recession is in the back of people's minds. hase's no doubt the data deteriorated, but the jobs market and the u.s. consumer is still engaged, so it will make the process longer and probably a bit narrower. but we should be thinking about it because the risks of the world is certainly in a recession. alix: have you learned anything so far from earnings? this week we can industrials come but really we get discretionary. vincent: discretionary --marvin: discretionary and a lot of the

more international companies. i think we will learn a lot. i find it interesting that the whole game in terms of lowering and then beating has gotten to the point where we've got very large beat numbers come about the marginsrs, but are very narrow. for the most part, i don't think margin growth is all that impressive yet. we do have topline growth, but we are really not converting it the way we have in the past. alix: there is a narrative that if you take a look at the fed and the ecb, that now the market is starting to get on board with more coming from the fed than the ecb, and that's why you are seeing the dollar get weaker. you could see the treasury bund spread narrower. marvin: ultimately, if we do slow down the way it appears a lot of the data is showing come

of the fed always has more the amount of bullets that the ecb had and the willingness to go down that route seems to be wavering a little bit. i found it interesting that the whole pushback against negative yields, clearly there's unintended consequences to yields also. it's a good part of the discussion. unfortunately, it is very deep into an expansion. central-bank efficacy has always been an issue, but it seems to be really a concern that is going to be a 2020 theme. alix: this is the u.s. treasury-bund spread. what is the trade for you? marvin: i still like u.s. rates. the fact that u.s. rates -- debt,so you buy the basically -- the dip, basically?

marvin: i do. the news flow has been fabulous for risk. i think there's a demand for income going forward. i think the fed is buying. you might not want to call the buying qe, but there's going to be a lot of buying over the next couple of quarters, and if the economy slows down, they might be in a situation where they are not going to be able to stop buying once again. alix: do you see the steepeners, then? curve: i think a steeper is something that still has some legs to it. i do think the fed is going to need to be as aggressive as what the market is saying. isx: the other part is what happening in the repo market. jp morgan had a note out saying that u.s. money market stress could actually be getting worse, and it is not convinced that the fed has resolved all the problems. what do you think? marvin: i don't think we are

done with this until the curve steepen's. i do think they put bandages on things. i think the transmission mechanism around putting things on reserve is imperfect at best. we've got additional debt coming into the market with a less attractive treasury market for foreign buyers. until all of that comes together and you get a steeper curve, and the basis comes off a little so foreign buyers become more aggressive into the treasury market, you still have those stresses. 8%'re taking care of 6.5% to repo rate like we saw a month a half ago, but in terms of actually functioning without the fed being aggressive, i don't think you're there yet. buyers? you get foreign you have the german ten-year bund yield at -35 basis points. it is a -80. china wasn't buying. japan was come of a more btp's was,anything else -- japan

but more btp's than anything else. marvin: when you look at how they hedge those purchases, right now it's actually more attractive for them to stay in negative yielding debt than to come to the u.s.. once that changes, they certainly welcome back. alix: what has to happen for that to change? marvin: i think the steepness of the curve. we are starting to see the fed -- or the belief that the fed is going to continue to cut and be willing to go beyond the tune they already have, and we stephen the curve. if we steepen it more, you get the foreign buyer interested in u.s. treasuries. alix: i can't believe i've had you for 40 minutes and we haven't talked about trade. [laughter] marvin: thank you very much. alix: you're welcome. we have the chinese five premier saying we are working on phase one, etc.

what is actually priced in? marvin: we are certainly taking the threats we have an trading them positively from a risk perspective. the way i'm approaching it is that escalation in terms of what we had seen over the summer might be something we don't need to be as concerned about. but in terms of it being enough to change the data, i'm still worried. i think we could get a light deal. i think that could potentially take some of the concern of tariffs on everything going into next year off the table a little bit, which is the positive. we've already seen negative data start to emerge from what we have. until we roll that back, until we get more stability in terms of how to approach trade, companies are not going to be aggressive in investing. that confidence is still waiting out. alix: marvin, great to chat with you. marvin loh of state street. now we want to get an update on what is picking headlines outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with first word news. viviana: kurdish forces are

giving into demands from turkeys president erdogan. erdogan threatening to resume his offensive if they didn't pull back tomorrow night. turkey denies claims it is violating the cease-fire. china's top trade negotiator says talks with the u.s. are making progress. first premier -- vice premier liu he says both sides are working towards a partial trade deal. inna will buy $50 billion additional farm goods, and the u.s. would suspend additional tariffs. u.k. primen whether minister boris johnson will be able to get a brexit deal through parliament. the government hopes it still can get brexit legislation approved in time for the october 31 deadline. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. tonto -- i'ma or

viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: for more on brexit and how leaders are reacting to recent development's, maria tadeo joins us from brussels. will an extension be granted? where is that conversation? that is the big question here in brussels, but i have to say, the mood right now is just wait and see. the europeans do not want to precipitate events. they do not want to set a timetable in motion. they want to wait and see what the prime minister is able to do back home. one of the things we were reminded of over the past 24 hours is that the prime minister has not actually lost the vote. he's not been defeated, and when he came to brussels last week, he told european leaders that he was optimistic he could get the votes needed before october 31, so there is already a conversation about the extension. that is something the europeans will have to come to terms with this week, but for the time

being, that reaction is contained. they just want to see where we go from here in the u.k. parliament. that is still seen as the biggest obstacle to get this deal done. alix: based on that, what is the risk? who's behind it? who's not? who are the holdouts? maria: at this point, those are -- at this point, there are two camps. those who just want enough time for the prime minister to get legislation done and have an orderly brexit. there are others, with angela merkel last week, that say it is time for everyone to take a step back and perhaps go for a longer extension. there isndeniable is no appetite to force a no deal brexit. jean-claude juncker said he would not be inclined to give more time. officials here do not want to be blamed for a no deal brexit, and do not want to be seen as pushing a prime minister who is

very close to a deal into a no deal brexit. alix: maria, thank you very much. appreciate that update from bloomberg's maria tadeo, joining us in brussels. coming up, another goldman sachs trader gets arrested for insider trading allegations. if you have a bloomberg terminal, check out tv . watch us online, click on our charts and graphics, interact with us directly. go to tv on your terminal and check it out. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." coming up in the next hour, rajnish kumar, state bank of india chairman.

now to your bloomberg business flash. just as the global economy cools off, private jet sales are soaring. this year, aircraft deliveries are expected to rise 9%. honeywell international expecting 740 planes will be delivered next year. better fuel efficiency, choir cabins, and gadget packed cockpits have spurred sales. the average value rising for the year. new listings plunged 30%. that shows how prospective sellers were reluctant to put houses on the market because of the brexit crisis. ubs is cutting 40 jobs in the asia-pacific region. the cuts are roughly split 's markethe swiss bank and investment teams. ultimately, it may eliminate

hundreds of positions. i'm viviana hurtado. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: we turn now to wall street beach. first up, goldman banker arrested for insider trading. the banker allegedly shared deals tips with a restaurant tour. and bridgewater's flagship fund still suffering from the low bond yield. and the new world order. the u.s. continues to be the center -- will the u.s. continue to be the center of economic power? joining us is bloomberg's sonali basak. let's start with goldman. this blew up over the weekend. sonali: another insider trading scandal. three is a lot in 18 months. the most recent is interesting because a guy was leaking information for almost three years, and goldman didn't know until the guy was arrested. so how do you not know that this is going on inside your bank? i think that is a tough one. for what it is worth, goldman is

not the only one lately. alix: sure. brian cohen is basically an investment banker here in new york that was arrested friday. can you walk us through what the allegations are? sonali: he was showing tips on pretty high-profile deals. guy who wase last accused of the same thing, there are hundreds of thousands of dollars that were made on these trades. i think something remarkable to me is over the course of your career, you are going to be making a lot more money than that, so i don't understand the incentive is to make a couple hundred dollars on some of these trades with a bunch of friends. alix: that's a good point. sonali: it doesn't make sense. just don't do it. alix: let's get to bridgewater. ray dalio basically unable to recoup the losses from low bond yields in august.

sonali: this has been a story all year, and this is off of last year, when they gained about 14.6%. i love pointing out the story from the beginning of the year where there was a small county dozensfornia that pulled of millions of dollars from the fund because they didn't like their performance after a good year. it, i think ito is something really interesting to ask after a tough year like this one. alix: but also, ray dalio has been out there talking about how bad everything is, how bad the cycle is going to be when it turns, basically, you would think he would be sticking with these lower bond yield calls. sonali: the environment has changed quite a bit. bankers have been not reacting the way they always have. that was the theme throughout last week. ray dalio has called this a great sag of an economy.

what people are thinking is lower for longer in a lot of ways, across the world. you see germany negative, japan negative. if that's the case, whether he is really going to change his calls of conviction, we will see. and i wonder, are we had a binary risk for these kind of investors? you either had a recessionary view, or you don't. it is a binary hit or miss. for what it's worth, macro investors had large have not been down this much as he has. a lot of other people had the same call that rates would be lower, but not ever but it was hurt by them. alix: good point. let's get to our third story. you worked all weekend with the iaf. when we ask you about the highlight, you brought the new world order. what does that mean? institute of international finance, i sister of the imf, you would think they

would be talking about performance or yields or anything, but it is not really like that. they were talking about whether the u.s. can retain its dominance, and what its relationship would be like with china moving forward. when i spoke with larry summers, he said that the erratic behavior of the u.s. is something that could risk the u.s.'s credit ability. leadersy asked several whether the u.s. and china would be able to fix their peoplenship, you saw laughing. they were so negative. this is what's funny? it's so depressing. alix: did you get any sense how bankers, how the international community is dealing with that, and how they go do business? sonali: a lot of the embassies were actually having parties thursday and friday night, and a lot of the bankers were at the parties have the different

embassies. so you do see people trying to get a handle globally about how all of these tensions are going to impact deal flow, economic activity. so they are placing their bets where they can see the most payoff. alix: did you go to an embassy party? sonali: i was not allowed at the embassy party. [laughter] alix: thank you so much. could to catch up with you. beaten street, this is my favorite story of the day. according to "the wall street obsession withs baking competitions has spread to london's finance district. financers and traders have taken a cue from "the great british bake-off," a great show that pits bakers against each other in a great britain way -- a great british way. they are nice and supportive of each other. if you don't watch it, that's said.

coming up, the lira's relief rally fades. that's coming up next in today's traders take. plus, retailer hudson's bay has agreed to be taken private at $10.30 canadian per share. that stock closed at just under $10 friday. we've been waiting for that target for a while now. if you are heading to your car, tune into bloomberg radio, heard across the u.s. on sirius xm channel 119 and on the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time now for traders take. joining me is vincent cignarella, voice of the bloomberg audio squawk. you can listen to him everyday if you type in squa on the terminal. vincent: looking at the turkish lira today. i'm not touching cable today.

the turkish lira has been really wicked last week. , andd sanctions announced then the cease-fire announced by pence, and the currency rallied about 12 big figures. you have to believe most of the positioning is washed out, at least the short-term day players. the government expects the kurds to evacuate that strip of land tomorrow. that should ease some of the hostilities. the u.s. would then be in a position to reduce even more sanctions going forward. this is a nato ally. we need to get close to them. can't have russia develop a foothold in that region. if it all plays well and we have a central bank that will cut interest rates likely, that still leaves a good positive 5% yield.

looking at the chart, if we stay below 585 as a substantial rally for the lira, potentially down to that blue line, there's a lot of things that have to falling to place first. but it seems to be teeing up that way. the united states definitely doesn't want to see that situation escalate. the government has no appetite for more war in the middle east. alix: do you think we would hold that, or if they were risk of line for thew that lira? vincent: it depends on whether or not the kurds if i q8 strip by tomorrow -- the kurds evacuate that strip by tomorrow. if they don't come of the turkish army will go back in. we will see the threat of sanctions from the house and senate once again, and the wheels fall off. either way, it's a fun currency exchange. alix: there you go. vincent cignarella, thank you very much. coming up, rbc capital markets'

head of u.s. equity strategy will be joining us about a quarter of the s&p companies reporting this week. break, let's to take a look at some of the movers in premarket. some are moving big, some are not. we will talk about that within the next hour. lots of concerns and questions of who knew what, when, how, and did the faa or boeing know the risks to the 737 max? in the broader market, it's all really about brexit moving, but also about backup in yields. a steeper curve in the u.s., yields moving higher in europe as well. europe really the underperformers there. this is bloomberg. ♪

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daybreak" on this monday, october 21. here's everything you need to know at this hour. let's take it from the top. pm johnson: we've reached the best possible solution. alix: prime minister boris johnson will make another push today for his brexit deal. francine: we don't know whether boris johnson will be able to push his deal once again for a vote in parliament. alix: johnson lost a crucial vote saturday that forced him to write to the european union asking for a three-month delay. >> he was honestly surprised at the level of pushback. alix: donald trump may work in the oval office, but he still think of himself as being in the hospitality business, according to acting white house chief of staff mitch -- chief of staff mick mulvaney. the president canceling his plans to hold the g7 summit at his doral resort. more problems in hong kong. anti-beijing demonstrators set

fires and direct stores -- and wreck stores. police used teargas and water cannons to break up demonstrations. it is election day in canada, where prime esther justin trudeau appears set to retain power, but lose his majority in parliament. that would force him to rely on the left-leaning party to stay in office. s&p futures trending right around the 3000 level, but still unable to break above and sustain that level. it is all about cable, all about yields. yields moving higher, cable rate trading around that $1.30 level. with me for the hour is ed hammond. hudson's bay finally going private. this?o we make of all ed: it's been a long time coming. the interesting thing here is is a bid from the chairman, so obviously they've had to form a

special committee on the board to get this thing done and done cleanly. big premium, 62%. it's gone up from nine dollars and change to just over $10. sure there is a counter bid. i'm not sure they will come up with that. alix: i feel like we've been trying to get something done on the hudson bay for a long time. if it hasn't come by now, i don't really know. mixed messages for 2019 have investors questioning growth at the tipping point. "it is not entirely cheer if we are -- entirely clear if we are on the cusp of growth are at a tipping point where the growth scare morse into economic contraction." joining me is the woman behind this note, lori calvo sena -- na, rbc capital head

of u.s. equity strategy. how do you know if it is a tipping point? think, from a bottom-up perspective, what we typically tend to see -- i think the confirmation comes after the market has already inflated one way or another. ed: one interesting thing for me in the note was that a lot of companies have reported on the 2020 guidance, and we can't do it because there is so much uncertainty. what does that tell us about where we are in the cycle? lori: i think it tells us what we were trying to say in the note. we know there are some clear and present pressures on the market. it's not exactly clear whether or not the market is going to actually break as opposed to simply bending. as we were going through the transcript last week, we found this question was coming time and time again. analysts are really pushing it in terms of what do you think for 2020, and the companies were all saying, we don't know. we don't have that visibility.

we've got to get into 4q. alix: if you don't know what your earnings are going to be, how do you find them? ed: it's a reasonable question. i ask m&a bankers all the time, were you expecting going into 2020? with all of the macro uncertainty, it is really hard to predict. that's funny because it is only just over two months away. alix: exactly. lori: i'm guilty of this, but all of us on the strategy side are looking at analysts who do bottom-up estimates and saying, you need to cut your numbers. you've still got 10% growth baked in. i've got 5%. you go through these transcripts and you have a lot of sympathy for these analysts because they are not getting that direction that they need to go make big adjustments for next year. ed: does that mean that if you are a fundamental analyst and looking at companies from the

bottom up, that that doesn't really apply anymore because we have so much going on in the background that could tip things bit? even if you do have a lori: i think there are also things the analysts need guidance from companies from. one is buyback activity. the other is things like tax rates. if you look back the last couple of reporting seasons, demand impacts have been seen from some of these uncertainties, but simply haven't been uniform across industries and sectors. there's been winners and losers within each. who are going to be those winners and losers? they are not getting any kind of new color at this point in time. alix: you like industrials. you were talking about holding your nose and just buying it. i'm what you talk me -- i want you to talk me through how you see this chart. this week we get so many earnings from both of those sectors. the blue line are earnings estimates, and white line is the performance. what does this chart tell you

about why you're sticking with that overweight? lori: in terms of industrials, we had been market wait for year-and-a-half until last month, and then took it mid-september to overweight. we had been talking ourselves overweight. it started with discussions with clients about, when we are five years down the road, when the trade war is a distant memory, whatever has happened economically, what will we have wished we did? frankly, we thought it would be buying things that were sensitive to the trade war, and we kept talking about machinery stocks. that got us looking at the industrial sector. if you look at industrials versus the s&p on a forward-looking multiple, you're basically back down to financial crisis lows. something new we pointed out was if you look at sell side net by ratings, you were down to 2016 lows, which happened to be historical lows. the sentiment of baking in all the bad news, that doesn't mean to say that we are not going to hear from some of the companies, but we think the bad stuff is baked in.

let's just say we are at the tipping point, not the turning point. it is going to be because you look at consumer, we don't see cheap evaluations, washed up sentiment, or risks coming into this earnings season. ed: a quote in the story over the weekend where we have someone from rabobank saying, " the frustration from investors does not does appear. it is difficult to invest." lori: what really rattled people was late august, early september, when we had that sudden style shift, and the momentum trade broke down. there was consternation about defensive areas breaking down, but the heart of that was some of these tech areas. when you say it's been too easy for too long, buying the secular growers because we don't know

what is happening globally, that has been an easy call. but when you look at ownership, skyhigh overweights relative to the broader market. if you look at the hedge data for q2, to me, that is the area you want to hold your nose and sell. alix: it also raises the question for what is the panacea for fixing everything? the glass actually looks pretty empty rather than half of day, to be. the trade war stuff has been an irritant as opposed to the underlying call. the economy running out of road in the u.s., running out of capacity, running out of labor. i just don't see any major reason why some improvement in some of these minor irritants is going to turn around the bigger oil tanker of the global economy. alix: what do you think about that? lori: i think it's another point of we just don't know at this point in time. when we talk to our economist,

one of the things he likes to tell us is that the consumer is unbelievably strong. own when we stress test our earnings models for mild recession scenarios, they are not that bad. maybe that gives me a little bit of a confidence to come in and buy some of these areas because we think the worst case scenario might not be that bad, but i think it captures what we are all struggling with right now. i of rbc alix: lor capital will be sticking with ed and i. we will talk about the energy hafir,with our s citigroup cohead of m&a. this is bloomberg. ♪

companye royal services

out with earnings this morning. shares posted an 11% drop in north america, citing a challenging market. for more, joining us now is marvin shafir, citigroup global cohead of m&a. theammond still with me for hour. mark, good to see you. is the way forward for oil companies, services, or emts going to be merging or bankruptcy? mark: i think we will see more consolidation. you've got a number of smaller independents that will probably consolidate. scale will matter in a declining oil price environment. production in shale, that sort of stuff. so i think we will see consolidation primarily in the upstream. ed: one of the things we were just talking about is the uncertainty going into 2020. if you are going after a big merger right now, how do you factor in that you might have this very long closing period, entering that you could see all

kinds of political and macroeconomic shocks? mark: i have maintained for a while that i think we should be in what i call a risk off market. but at the beginning of the year, i was talking about a 10% to 20% decline in volumes. it is now looking more like flat or down 10%, so i clearly missed it. the market is still being driven by large deals. it is kind of interesting. if we get a recession, libby mild will it -- will it be mild? will it be deeper? there's a lot of questions with china and the hong kong situation. i'm a little surprised, quite candidly. alix: someone told me you that investors hated the deal. they really punished parsley stock. why? what do you make of that?

investors cannot get on board with that kind of thing. mark: i think the sector is out of favor with investors. any material transaction generally, you're going to see some pressure. that stop did come back somewhat, so -- but look, it is a tough time in the oil patch, no question. investors are very skeptical about the sector, so it is not that surprising to me that that transaction, even if you say we need consolidation come on the day, investors have been pretty tough on the sector. ed: it has been a tough time in the energy sector for a while. does that dictate more transactions are fewer? mark: lori: -- mark: in the upstream, i think we will see more. as a general matter in this environment, i think we will see more, not less. you spend a lot of time looking at the magnitude of the premium pay to try to gauge investor

reaction, but more importantly, if you do get some pressure, you will see some recovery afterwards. is it a very rational fit in terms of the properties in question? that stuff really matters. ed: take us into the boardrooms. on monday and what they are looking outcome of what is the m&a,ine ash on m&a -- on what is the pipeline like and what are they looking at in terms of deals? mark: it's remained as good as it has given the significant potential macroeconomic headwinds and some of the geopolitical stuff we see, i think most of us feel that business will be pretty good could --f the backlog of the backlog. the real question is what happens thereafter. i think a lot of it is still going to come.

we will certified some of the logic, you could say, but i think it is going to be interesting. alix: lori calvasina of rbc capital markets is still without. positive view on energy stocks and had to renege from that. what would make you feel better? lori: we pulled it back to market weight. i think the reality is we couldn't answer that question. we look at energy no more of a trading sector, and we know it is unbelievably cheap. one of the things we are about our climate concerns and growth expectations. one of the things i talk to clients about is energy being derated. investors feel at they don't have to own the sector. then he sort of look at who are the buyers of the sector. it tends to be the hedge fund community. they are pretty neutral versus the s&p.

value investors are already loaded up. when things are going well in the energy sector and we haven't had one of these m&a deals, look at all the dividends they are doing, one of the highest yielding dividend sectors in the s&p. look at all the buybacks they are doing. then we get these m&a stories, and all of that shareholder story gets swept to the side. so we just structurally didn't understand what was going to really power in move outside of the trading range. ed: you see this interesting thing of activists really jumping into the sector. if i look at something like marathon, a fairly classic energy company, and what is going on there, you have these sort of defenses against the downside call, get rid of them. they wanted to spin off the gas stations and spin off the pipelines. they are basically saying we would prefer that we have pure play energy companies to invest in. do we play that sort of trading

game? alix:alix: that reminds me of when exxon continued to get pressure to sell off their businesses and become more , and rex tillerson was like, no, no, and it ended up protecting them. what do you think? mark: from my vantage point in the sector, i agree to the point about climate concerns and esg. comported theesg conversation around deals. obviously it is further ahead in europe than the u.s., but unequivocally, that does matter. in terms of whether we should have more pure play players versus large, diversified majors, i am not smart enough to make that call, but to your point, exxon did weather the storm. in energy generally, it's not going away for the foreseeable future. clearly the emphasis on renewables makes a lot of sense,

and we want to get there. in the interim, how do you manage it, and were you managing to? there's of the kinds of issues we see. i still think consolidation makes sense in an environment like that where you will have shrinking demand over time, and you've got esg concerns, and you really got to figure out, if you are a ceo, how do you run your business for the future as opposed to looking in a rearview mirror? ed: another big theme at the moment, china trade tariffs, etc., everything we seen with the nba and what that has done for the rhetoric with sports and such. were apprised of one of the most contentious deals with broadcom. what is the risks now for any company that has that exposure, that we don't want anything that has china risk? mark: it is high, particularly

if it is national security-related or infrastructure. if you do get it done, it will take you 18 months to two years. to be hanging around a transaction for 18 to 20 months, you get the risk of employees leaving, business stalls, all of that stuff. i think it is a very tough environment right now. alix: how does that factor into certain sectors? where they grow? now they might go slower because they can't merge. how do you think about that? mark: it reinforces the idea that --lori: it reinforces the idea that this is a trading sector. you're going to be nimble. one thing i stress is that even though there are some of these challenges, whether politically or from climate change, there is a lot of value in this space. we are seeing the relative multiples on a cash flow basis hidden levels they typically bottom out yet. you don't want to totally

abandon it, but just try to be nimble. ed: that's quickly end on retail because we are going into the last quarter. where are you guys predicting going into the back of the year? underweight the consumer discretionary sector, looking at and excluding internet retailers. one of the things i don't like about the sector is that even x internet retailers, i don't see a lot of value. some stocks have been beaten up on trade war concerns, but specialty retailers look pretty overvalued to us. i would contrast it with what we see in the past week >> -- with what we've seen the past week. i think we are going to see a tale of two different reporting seasons between these sectors. alix: great conversation.

lori calvasina of rbc capital markets, thank you. marvin shafir of citi, thank you. next, all about brexit. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak." last year, the u.s. created more than half the world's millionaires. the u.s. accounted for 675,000 new millionaires. one reason, the booming stock market. japan and china contributed the second and third-most millionaires. there's reportedly been a last-minute settlement in the opioid case in ohio. according to dow jones, four drug companies reaching a deal. it will allow them to avoid a trial seeking to blame them for fueling the crisis. no details have been released. the companies include cardinal health, amerisourcebergen, and test pharmaceuticals -- and test

pharmaceuticals. economists believe the odds are now in favor of the brexit agreement ratified by christmas. in relation to global peers, the msci u.k.'s valuation is at a 30 year low. that's your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much, the vienna. we have some breaking news here -- so much, viviana. we have some breaking news here. opioid settlement described from people familiar with the millionworth about $250 from different companies like teva, nd work -- from inwork, and cardinal health. i am trying to take a look at what some of the stocks are doing. i can't tell if it is $50 million per or total.

we were looking at 18 billion so $50 at $18 billion, million seems quite small. -- so $250 million seems quite small. ed:ed: i think at this point they are settling state-by-state, so this is probably a lower number. the really interesting thing is with these companies, they were high-growth companies sort of dialing to the stock market for a long time. now all of them getting crushed because of this. teva is only down slightly on the day, about 3% on this. not hugely surprising news, obviously. alix: more on this in just a few moments. coming up, we will speak with the chairman of india's biggest bank. this is bloomberg. ♪ from the couldn't be prouders

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coming out this week. we just got the latest on a potential opioid settlement in ohio. s&p futures around 3000. not necessarily moving over it but not moving below it. in other asset classes, it is still a weaker dollar story, stronger cable world, and higher rates. and etp in italy the underperformers in europe come over here, still a stronger yield curve. the market can handle it. the conversation at the imap was about the case for fiscal policy. leaders warning of slowing growth and limits to monetary policy alone. >> at this point, i would pricing one more cut for the rest of the year, and that i would sit back and watch and wait. >> room for further monetary easing may have become limited. >> you do see bankers and finance ministers alike share

beings about the monetary at its end. >> i think central bankers are heroes. the only problem is we cannot expect them to be heroes again and again. even the central banks run out of ammunition. >> if you want to improve gdp growth and potential growth, we will need broader economic policy. >> a sound world economy will need to depend on much more than monetary policy. >> there is a consensus being built on the need for fiscal policy and structural reforms so we can have a stronger growth going forward. alix: joining us to break that down is state bank of india chairman. so good to get your perspective. thank you for being with us. >> thank you for inviting me. india is being -- alix: india is doing both, fiscal and monetary policy. have you noticed anything in terms of demand for corporate?

what do you see? >> the projection for growth in the din economy has been around 6% and as been down from 7%. imf, there was an indication that india will grow 7% again. there is been action on the monetary policy front and as well as fiscal. the latest was the corporate tax rate cut by the finance minister and before that, consistently .he bank of india as a result of all of this, it is expected there'll be more investment in the corporate tax rate -- three weeks back, the profits which now the corporate will be able to retain. it is expected that there will

be investment in the economy. we had a good month, not very monsoon. a good when there is a good monsoon, the hopes around the upcoming season are good. festival season we are seeing the demand pick up and these factors and the availability of the credit, there is liquidity in the system, banks are sitting on comfortable liquidity. these are the pointers where there has been demand. one more thing is about the -- the plans are big. we have defined money -- we have to find money to fund the partnership between the government and the private sector will be crucial. ofhave achieved the target

$1.5 trillion u.s. investment for the next five to six years. >> one thing that is interesting is you have this tremendous growth rate, income per capita is still fairly low, how much leveraged you need to sustain the growth rate, whether it is leverage on companies or leverage of the personal level? rajnish: companies have consistently brought up their leverage issues. that is there when we talk about the credit growth. we are seeing it is subdued. ofis more on the utilization what we call the working capital side. this indicates there is still a scope for improving [indiscernible] after the introduction of the solvency code, there has been a consistent effort by the companies and the bankers to ensure the leverages remain

within the normal level so they can service their debt. alix: do you feel like leverage is in a good place? talking about the credit quality you are noticing now, households and corporate and how that is affecting your business. 2018,h: corporate's, in did aur central bank quality review of all of the banks, then the recognition part, the recognition, that was completed in 2018 by all of the banks. after that, we have seen consistent decline and real system of percentage dumps. that is a result of conscious decisions by the corporate to deleverage and stepping up the efforts by the banks to record advice among the

partial write-offs are moving the nps from the balance sheet to the balance sheet. [indiscernible] there is progress on that front. on the household front, as compared to many of the countries, india's household debt is not as high. >> i noticed just looking at this that both bank and non-bank credit are following in the commercial sector. let's end on this. you have this huge sense of fear in the west about all of these issues, whether brexit or trade and tariffs. what are indian companies most worried about and do they see what is going on in the west as an opportunity? rajnish: the global headwinds are not in favor as of now. the global environment is not as good. there are opportunities for indian companies to increase their exports. there is no doubt about it.

subdued theand was last few months. that is expected to come back. expectation that there may be some movement of manufacturing from china to other countries and india could be one of the beneficiaries of that. alix: have you noticed any of that yet? rajnish: not yet. but these are the things that always come. thead a statement from administrator in washington that government will be helping the companies who want to come and look and india. seen quickly, we have also pushback within india of companies like amazon and google that want to come into india. there has been a pushback. what do you do? if you need to do a deal with mobility, you need to invest, how do you do that? rajnish: e-commerce is flourishing in india. in festival season they have

done well. the issue is about the policies. there is a concern and it impacts the local traders. other than that, i think india has no issues as far as e-commerce goes. they are homegrown as well as international. , they are doing very well in india, particularly the demand is coming from cities. .hey play by the rules i do not think there's any major issue. alix: state bank of india chairman, thank you for stopping by. we appreciate it. we want to give you an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with first word news. viviana: kurdish forces are

giving into the man's from .urkey's president turkey denies claims it is by letting the cease-fire. china's top trade negotiator says talks with the u.s. are making progress. the vice premier said both sides are working toward a partial trade deal. buyu.s. has said china will $50 billion of american farm products. in return, the u.s. would suspend additional tariffs. there is growing optimism boris johnson will be able to get a brexit deal through parliament. cabinet minister's saying johnson is undeterred after saturday's vote that forced him to ask for three-month delay. the government hopes up and still get brexit legislation approved in time for the october 31 deadline. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. hurtado.ana this is bloomberg. alix: thanks so much.

the u.k. parliament opens for business in about an hour. bloomberg surveillance coanchor francine lacqua is live at westminster. what can we expect today? francine: we know prime minister boris johnson once this deal through parliament. we know also that it to: 30 p.m., in about 45 minutes, we will hear from the house speaker about whether he will allow such a vote to take place. what we also know is that when legislation then goes through parliament tomorrow, if the vote is not done today, which is a pure vote like we've done on saturday, and we think boris johnson has the numbers, then we will possibly see amendments to this bill if the amendments have enough sway through parliament, we could see some kind of referendum attached. u.k. could see the reinforcing the customs union. that will depend on whether the dup supports it. that it is back to the hands of boris johnson, whether he sticks

with the deal or pulls the deal because it is not what he wanted. we are also expecting to see whether the eu will grant the extension the prime minister asked for. alix: i do not envy your job. francine lacqua, thank you very much. coming up on this program, the settlement on the ohio opioid case. more on the bottom line. remember, bloomberg users did and wrecked with the show at gtv on the terminal. browse the features and check it out. gtv . this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm viviana hurtado in the hewlett-packard enterprise greenroom. coming up in the next hour, mohamed el-erian, alliance chief

economic advisor and bloomberg opinion columnist. now you're bloomberg business flash. just as the global economy cools off, private jet sales are sorry. this year, business aircraft deliveries are expected to rise 9%. honeywell international expects 740 planes will be delivered next year. quieteruel efficiency, cabins, and gadget packed cockpits have spurred sales. ubs is cutting 40 jobs in the asia-pacific region. bloomberg has learned the cuts are switched between the swiss bank market and an investment team. ubs launched a sweeping overhaul of its investment bank. ultimately, it may eliminate hundreds of positions. goldman sachs is in the midst of an unwelcome streak. in the last 18 months, three goldman bankers have been charged with insider trading. the latest, goldman investment banker brian cohen was arrested

friday in new york and accused of passing deal tips to a restaurant tour. alix: thanks so much. what you make of that? the goldman sachs insider trading? >> it is amazing. it should not be surprising. he is the third to be brought up on these charges. we broke a couple of the deals that are referenced. report, youm&a intimately watch the stock of any company or doing a story on to see if anyone else will chase it. i remember with buffalo wild wings, it was trading up, the day before our story ran it was starting to trade up. we were thinking this is odd because it was moving. now we know why. alix: time for bottom line. we will take a look at companies worth watching. we are looking at the ohio opioid case settlement, worth $250 million. joining us is bloombergs drew armstrong, who leads health care

coverage in the u.s.. the deal. what is it and what we know? about $250 million between these four companies. they control about 90% of the u.s. pharmaceutical distribution. this is not the big case we are talking about, the multidistrict litigation where we have over 2000 city states and counties involved. this is a small piece and an indicator of where these might be going. >> you said they control over 90% of the market. is it that in itself worrying? three companies with much control? is a question for the ftc commissioner. these guys are the giants of distribution. any drug that flows through america's medicine cabinet are touched by these guys. the debate around them was you are sending vast quantities of opioids to certain pharmacies. it should have been obvious that

something wrong was going on. you bear some responsibility for failing to spot and stop this problem before it claims tens of thousands of american lives. that is the issue with them. is $250e main question, million a lot? drew: to me it is. alix: for these companies, is a lot? the: this will play into bigger settlement talks we are talking about for the larger legislation. these companies have put $18 billion over 18 years on the tape was a settlement amount. that is probably a very and eventual -- a very manageable amount. $3 million a year over 18 years, they can handle that. but look at where the stop is trading before the market. you're seeing cardinal way down, people are looking at this as a bad sign for where the settlement talks might be headed. alix: drew armstrong joining us from bloomberg. we will also take a look at

boeing. brooke sutherland is here. a lot of different headlines over the last 24 hours. where is boeing and at 737 max defense? boeing haswing -- put out a couple of different information about what happened. one of the company's top liaisons with the faa talking about concerns he had with the flight control software system that is at issue with these two crashes. seemed to be raising concerns in november of 2016, which is before the plane was certified. boeing is trying to say he was talking about the simulator acting up and not acting as you would expect when reviewing the flight control software system. they also pointed out that they gave the documents over to the doj. some reporting thing that was done in february, which was before the second crash of the max, and the faa is up in arms that they are only just now

finding out about the existence of these messages, according to that regulatory body. >> does the faa not have some responsibility in all of this? one fact that came out of your reporting is the faa takes boeing employees and uses them to do the faa's work. the people making the plane -- it is a bizarre relationship. brooke: it is an extremely bizarre relationship. that dynamic did have bipartisan support. as a long-standing process of outsourcing report to boeing employees. that has come under a lot of scrutiny from these crashes. to your point, the faa does have a credibility problem. it does not help boeing to escalate the tensions. you have the relationship of mutual mistrust. the plane has not been put back up into the air. that is an ongoing process. i can see the timeline getting stretched out, which for boeing raises the process of you have to shut down production of the max?

they are piling these up in parking lots. they cannot keep going forever. then are you looking at material job cuts? which has significant ramifications for the supply chain and the broader economy. lot,eing is down quite a but is there a case it should be unaffected. the government is not going to let boeing fail. it is the main airplane in the country. i think it is interesting the stock has dropped as much as it did on this news. it has held up well throughout the crisis, it has fell down a little bit but not as much as you would expect for a like this. what is making analysts concerned is does this increase boeing's liability in the ongoing civil and criminal investigation, does this create bigger issues for the company branding wise. you have to convince customers to get on the airplane, not only this airplane but also the other models. one of the questions i have is

that healthy you have a duopoly protecting boeing? does that prohibit the company from making the kind of deep changes it should be making? the more that comes out on this, the more the pressure increases on boeing to take a step back and rejigger its priorities. maybe you are redesigning some of the airplanes than making incremental upgrades. that does start to be an issue for investors. alix: brooke sutherland, thank you so much. bloombergs ed hammond, thank you for joining me. .t worked out breaking,als airplanes, what more do you want? if you're-- alix: headed your car, tuning to bloomberg radio on channel 119, sirius xm. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time for technically speaking. bill maloney joints me now. you can listen to bill on the bloomberg. we were just talking about going. you have the chart. what you see? bill: stock to cart on friday. -- stop hit hard on friday. downgraded at credit suisse and ubs. the fort -- the first support zone around 330 to 337. it falls below that, then you're looking at 320, that is your second support level. 337, 320. we are in a trading range. alix: i feel like it is a theme for you, a trading range. let's get to johnson & johnson. we heard a potential opioid settlement in ohio when it comes america's, johnson & johnson not in that settlement. bill: another stop down friday,

fractionally higher today. the first key support is this 127 level. if that fails, you're looking at december lows of 121. another trading range. alix: how firm is that 127 support? bill: in december and january it held again, july through the end of september. it should hold 127. if it does not, there is an air pocket at 121. alix: halliburton coming out with earnings this morning. earnings were ok, but the north american revenue was down 11%. that was ugly. what do we see with the chart? bill: revenue did miss the lowest estimates. the stock is knotting the trading range. atdid have the first support 117, 118. if you go back five years, clear long-term downtrend dating back to 2018. 117 is your floor, still downtrend below 20.

alix: great stuff. till maloney, great to chat with you. that wraps it up here. open," mohamedhe el-erian will be joining jonathan ferro. in the markets, looking in equity futures pushing higher, up .4%. you could see a rolloff with the tariffs in december. they may not be put on. the recent headline helping push equities over 3000. in other asset classes you are looking at higher yields and a steeper curve and a weaker dollar. the cable rate flirting with the 130 level. can we break about that. we will see when parliament opens at 9:30 a.m. eastern time. that is your market check. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now.

♪ up the weekendg passing without a breakthrough. the prime minister pushing to passes brexit deal. japan and south korea. the latest signs the trade dispute is hitting the global economy. the fed's final word doing little to reship rate cut bets. good morning. here is your monday morning price action. futures at session highs and through the thousand, up 12 points on the s&p 500. year.on the 10 the euro unchanged on the dollar of 1.1161. let's begin with the big issue. without a breakthrough, the brexit story spilling into a new week. >> looking at the weekend event, they were definitely an anti-climax. >> brexit does have its own sense of time. >> mp's have not rejected the deal. >> boris johnson's position is