have shown some signs .f life perhaps we are to the advanced stages of that. >> terrible disappointment. >> well is us. so up healthy gains. >> -- still up healthy gains. >> the record watch continues to next week. industrial companies the ones showing the damage from the trade wars. the russell 2000 gaining as well. you wonder where they fit in among this trade optimism. fort has been a crazy week semi-dr. -- semi conductor

companies. -- dive deeper looking at equities, bonds, currencies and commodities. >> let's take a look at the s&p legitimate day of taking on record highs stop first shot happening and crossing right around 3026 come off almost coming above the all-time high, just slightly short of that not hitting it on the close. most of the indexes gained have come in the first quarter five this time, during the moving day average moving to creep out of

range. we could see the s&p 500 put in new highs next week or at least the coming weeks. >> you talk about a potential record for the s&p. it is all about the chipmakers. winners,a lot of companies like intel really highlighting that they have weathered the trade fight pretty well and i want to take a look at a chart here inside the terminal. look at to do dive and it in particular. up,have the stocks index for example the nasdaq only up about 3% or so. taking a look at gold would

just at about a 1% weekly gain and underscores the threat of clothing global glove -- growth global growth. [no audio] and gold,the assets so no surprise gold has gained as many% this year banks have adopted looser monetary policies. geopolitical uncertainty. richard hastings said earlier concerns over and impeachment and trade could further hinder goals.

>> let's look ahead to next week and the fact we have the fed coming. does the fed need to say? >> at think most people were expecting the hawkish cut which is an indication they will be more circumspect going forward. the market could be getting its head -- getting ahead of itself. foster --s changes its posture the last several months and now we are cycling through the economy. >> something that really caught my eye this week is if you look at some of the industrial or

cyclical companies, those look fantastic. company --the bow boat company. i know the question sounds absurd, but it is getting increasingly harder to find evidence in this market of a recession. >> just to take the other side>> two examples, you have a lot of baby boomers retiring. fromr as recession goals the stock market, i'm not sure it is the best place to look. i think there is something to be

said when cyclical's start rolling over. i would start to look at financials. lately, they have been a good canary. market worry about the right up to the eve of recession. i'm not sure we will get a strong signal. >> just to be clear, we are definitely going in the wrong direction stop >> a lot depends --where treasury yields go direction. >> a lot depends on where treasury yields go. [no audio] where do you see the path forward? it is kind of odd what is going on, very difficult to tell what is fundamentally driven and

what is technically driven. that said, back to the recession conversation. another way to frame it is we have it sector by sector. the manufacturing sector is basically another sector. underneath, there's a lot more going on. >> one thing that has been really important in recent weeks withat the fed has done the market. it has effectively brought that that has brought the neutral market rates down -- backl market rates down

below 2%. i think that is an incentive to get out. >> bonds or turn, -- return, the highest since 2016, up 11 straight days. that does not seem to signal much of a recession concern either. >> especially when you look at the crossover sections. the lower quality is signaling some trouble. ithink you want to look at sector by sector and the word recession is too broad and we have certain areas and pocket we want to watch. expansion, there is always control areas and it seems to me there's always been

worry, never has been for your clean and it does not feel particularly in a different now so when you look at the populace , maybe oneit market itld make the argument overall doesn't have to much euphoria or fear. >> the troubled quite as -- credits are failing, but it is not systemic. do have a lot of debt and a lot of leverage, so we should not be too complacent that there are bigger troubles out there. it is a time to stay up in quality. >> i want to get your thoughts on investors more focused on

before weity than work attempted to come to market . how do you see that playing out? ofi think this sort speculative area of the market, highly valued our little taboo topit brings it back to the of the s&p as a whole. a lot of people look at that as a central resistance, but it kind of disguises another important area and these levels are approaching 20 times earnings, but both of those are have petered out.

athink it depends if you have lower handle or higher handle. thatthink you are seeing move up. >> matt, thank you so much. migrating, we thank you as well. [indiscernible] from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> live from bloomberg in new york, i'm caroline hyde. >> here's a snapshot of how markets closed on the day. not-- s&pno cigar, at the record. [no audio] deja vu in argentina, the national reserve shrinking as the country heads to the polls and a different kind of american years, newafter 17 jersey's megamall is opening its doors. but, will it actually pay off? francis standing alone. amanda macron blocking the european union's attempt to block brexit for another three months.

bloomberg executive editor joins us from london with the story. you think he would be aligning himself with boris johnson of the u.k.. what is the view here, they will manage to push for an election or push the deal through? >> the first priority is to get a deal through. has never been a fan of extending brexit. he has resisted before and in this case, he is saying three months is too long and the pressure needs to stay on the british to get this deal through and he is aligning himself carefully with horse johnson who also wants to hold parliament's feet to the fire. >> could it work if the eu

ultimately comes back and says we are not going to do the long extension? could boris johnson have a pass to get the withdrawal agreement? alternativeuse the on octoberl brexit 31. the question is how do europeans aligned himself? macron has until tuesday to negotiate. they all have to be in agreement to have that extension. right now, mo cowan seems to be on the outer am a but we could be down to the wire to get him in alignment with the other european leaders to avoid that brexit. existential, what

lettinga drawback is this play out a little longer on the u.k. side? givest seemed inclined to that extension. if anything, for months could be too short. -- three months could be too short. [no audio] there's a sense of frustration of how long this is taking, but the biggest concern is you have the u.k. crashing out without a deal. for them, it makes sense to give them as much time as possible. chaos for people, that kind of confusion is ultimately what you want to avoid. thanks for that update. we will continue this

conversation with more insight. we want to bring in the of a capital management. i stay wedded to the u.k., to london? >> where we today? it has been three years and a half. hopes over the past 10 days just reacting on what president macron said today. i think taking the stance of what you hear, i think the train is goingg now and it to march to get the rights. >> they moved the pound, the ftse. every once in a while, they move other markets, but mostly it is just a messick.

-- domestic. does [indiscernible] factor into how you feel about european asset? s? is and remains the financial center of europe. >> what makes you so sure of that? there was noto even a european union or anything like that. when it comes to europe, let's go back to basics. been on thelways continent. italy, spain and what we have to move on so the uncertainty around

brexit is something that has to .e dealt with obviously >> it has impacted business investment and impacted the real estate market. i'm still a homeowner largely because i could not somewhat house. inre are the opportunities at what point can you enter if nothing is being sold? more are seeing many contrary and investors. and -- contrarian investors. [no audio] what we are seeing is more global investors are rebalancing

it into other european countries. >> what does the u.k. have to do to keep those people engaged? i think the first thing is to move -- remove any uncertainty. they hate uncertainty. last week, you're talking about [indiscernible] and this week we were talking about a solution. as soon as we can remove the .ncertainty marioeurope, we just had draghi's final press conference or final meeting handing off the reins to christine lagarde. is there a framework in place to revive european growth and a meaningful degree or are we still going to have this grind andonetary policy reluctance to do anything

structural and fundamental? >> mario draghi has done a terrific job in context of the situation. imfas been a very good president and finance minister. the leadership now required, the is overallke today negative interest rates, is a big situation. hopefully we are not just building the next crisis. >> thank you very much. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> intel reporting that its stock rose about a percent, but concerns saloons about the u.s.-china trade war -- 8%, but concerns still loom about the u.s.-china trade war. about 200 million of that was pulled in from the fourth quarter in light of the exciting about the availability of products, so not a whole lot of it, but some of it, but despite that, we did take up our fourth-quarter outlook as well. >> you say your reviewing the supply chain. i'm just wondering if you can share any insight from that review. are you making any changes? >> i think for our customer base, we have china, a large market for us in terms of ,ustomers for china consumption

but also for global oems that have more of their assembly and test operations, so what we are saying is in light of the debates around tariffs, we are trying to work to ensure they can get the product most effectively by leveraging out global supply chain to diminish the impact that tariffs could so we have a wonderful global supply chain and we are close with our customers to deal with the dynamics we are wrestling with. i would say we are encouraged that china and the u.s. are talking because we are a strong believer in global trade, we don't find tariffs to be a destructive mechanism for trade, so we are encouraged that the two sides are back at the table. , mitigate thee

impact to our customers around the world. huawei, who has ?een blacklisted by the u.s. >> they have been an important partner and we continue to see them as an important customer going forward, but at the same time, we have to adjust to the laws in the markets which we aree, so to the extent we allowed to under the current into the list -- entity list. >> are you getting the temporary waivers and licenses? >> we have put applications in to get licenses, but we have not heard back. we hope to hear sometime soon. >> that was bob swan.

coming up next, argentina's election. this is bloomberg. here, it all starts with a simple...

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>> i am mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. congressional democrats in federal court today. a washington judge has ruled the justice department must turn over a less redacted version of the mueller report. the justice department had opposed the request, citing secrecy, but the ruling says congress needs the grand jury material to avoid a possible injustice in the impeachment inquiry.

[no audio] two-day summit of nato defense ministers in brussels. westlaw allies have different views, we agree they must build to make progress in efforts to find a political solution in syria and need to maintain wemitment to the region and must fight against isis. says they call on turkey to address the humanitarian crisis and investigate allegations of war crimes and maintain control of isis prisoners. two former presidents, obama and clinton, joined at a baltimore church today for the journal services of elijah cummings.

thosepelosi was among who diedng cummings after complications from long-standing health problems. , proudah was a proud man of his heritage, product baltimore-- proud of and proud of america. our battleppealed to angels and called for a higher purpose. >> on thursday, congressman cummings became the first black lawmaker to lie in state at the u.s. capitol where he served for 23 years. global news 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts and at tictoc on twitter, in more than 120 countries.

i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. start of arking the campaign blackout in argentina, citizens heading to the polls to choose between the sitting president and the incumbent. jp.more, j pace pennetta -- is there any ambiguity about the outcome? >> as he said, we had that result in the primary. they were ahead by 16 percentage points. it will be difficult for the incumbent to turn around the election and actually make it to the runoff.

for him, it is not crucial to win the election. is within 10 to be points of difference from the so in that manner, he will be able to make it to a runoff. >> can you give us a sense here. what are people voting for? what are the main issues driving it --ector -- elector electorate? >> this is all about the economy, it is in pretty bad shape. itarrived promising that would be better.

it grew during the four years, people -- it is about the economy basically. >> whatever happens, it seems the economy deteriorating going into this election, people would tell amazing stories, the lines outside the banks to access any cash they have. nevertheless, people looking to vote for that potentially come even worse? >> it could always get worse. with then has to do financial system here and people [indiscernible] we saw down

in buenos aires, a lot of people trying to go to the banks and get that money and try to move them to safes, just to be sure. the local on currency, you're going to lose. we will have to see. we need to see what happens with the renegotiation of the debt and it is not a question of months or years, it is a question of days and weeks. >> thank you so much for the update. more, let's bring in albert o. it feels this has tumbled so quickly. what are you watching for?

how quickly does he need to make is economic plans clear? >> i would say very quickly. sentiment is very fragile. the macro picture is pretty ugly. you talk about high interest rates, close to 70%. a deep recession will enter into they haveyear and strained their relationship with the imf. the onus is on the next .dministration oddly enough, some policies need to be in place for a certain time and you will see the effects. the economy was moving in the right direction.

it is no longer as wide as it used to be. adjustment, inflation starting to come down. >> does imf or whoever else need general rethinking the playbook for helping a country get out of distress? you need pension reform, structural reform, tighter monetary policy, they are never andlar in politics is real it has become difficult to avoid politics. if you only go so far before you see a real reaction. does that need to be taken into account for the next time someone is in this situation?

>> it does. .ou look at the policies they don't have a way to fund it . i think fiscal adjustment was enough. they need to reach a competitive sometimes the situation is so fragile, it is too late to rescue in a smooth way. i don't think the imf was designed.y badly what happened was not a shot. what was a shot is after the primaries people started to fear . >> existing investors, there will be a debt restructure.

most -- what do you think he can work out? to him is more palatable is more palatable to investors. you can choose whatever depending on expression, but indian they need some -- in the end, they need some debt relief. it doesn't really help that it is just a light restructuring. you have to do it again. where allbe stakeholders commit in a stakeholders commit in a credible way to a certain path and you work out what type of debt relief they need. i'm not so sure and eventual reduction will be enough.

>> it is going to be huge. aromas from's -- of goldman sachs -- romas from goldman sachs. we have some breaking news? moody's already happen to be .ne rating york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the unrest from chilly spilling into the streets,

.raffic in a standstill of latinh us, head america research over at goldman sachs. we have seen the protests in chile and some of the day-to-day a issues. we are also seeing protests. when you see these types of outbursts by the public course policies that have largely been well received by markets, but not benefited or the perception they have not benefited the people, how does that get reconciled? i think you raise a very interesting point. i think in general, we live in an age of diminished

expectations. the trouble and the angst out there. there, they are looking at low wages, low growth, a political system in which they don't feel represented. there witnessing corruption scandals. now, it is on the authorities to authorities to ease those anxieties, but in a way that everybody enjoys -- in a way that addresses shortcuts and does not undermine the investment into the economy. understandtant to and thes is real

political class finds a way to , but without compromising market stability compromise also social stability. >> for years, i read about how great the chilean pension system is in they are a relatively wealthy country. it is one thing to have these protests on the streets. signalsearlier warning so doesn't have to come to this? thehen you look at payments, the system delivered something. [no audio]

some people do not contribute -- in in what they call terms of the minimum pension entitled. , you need to be mindful of that, but i think those cannot be addressed and the only way to address them is one that attracts investment and growth. it is a different reality and provides a segway in the streets. >> has there been a violent view to try to people tend

broadbase the emerging markets and not look at it as [indiscernible] countries. how much have recent people pull back because of this rise in protests? emerge markets issa beehive growth and high yield. changes and there's still benefits, but for we have to knowledge that the supportingno longer the growth cycle and we see signs of political and social and there seems to be . more widespread phenomenon .e saw significant shifts

>> you brought up the commodity space. the collapse we have seen has obviously played a part in this. all this ties back into the global growth story. exalt --t be enough to ?f exalt -- absolve favorable to grow at external conditions. outside has traditionally not been enough, relatively limited, so we need those external things. worsenow, it is not the -- worst.

why in so many parts, they need to reform. the region does not trade enough. >> it is great to get your expertise. economic [indiscernible] for the region. the united auto workers members have ratified the contract. they said they ratified what is , it has the breach currently cost gm $2 billion. important noty only to gm, but the labor dates in general. >> it started to weigh in on some parts of the economy. we just talked about their downgrade. >> those for plants, those are

going to remain closed. investors, butr a lot of workers said it wasn't good for them. they have obviously found a way to balance it out. >> coming up, why a group of developers are taking on the retail apocalypse. will new jersey be the new mall of america? questionable. that is next. ♪

>> the american dream in new jersey, that is what we are talking about. the american dream megamall opening today in new jersey. the $5 billion development includes animism park, ice rink, indoor ski park and over 100

dining options all under one roof. have you been to all 100 dining options? chick-fil-a and chipotle? to gett of all, we have across and the company did not do a good job. only the amusement park and ice break his opening today -- ice rink is opening today. >> what is the eta on the rest of it? >> march and i think the ski slope is going to open before that. i sound very cynical and

negative, but in the end of probably take my daughter. >> the question is, how do you get there? someone is telling me you have to get a bus. >> that is one of the big question marks. they expect 40 million people to go to this year. that is more than disney. >> and you can't drive there. -- theyan take a bus will have 30,000 parking spaces. >> can i ask a serious question? >> i thought malls were dying. why is this going to work? >> that is another question. >>we already know that barney's, lord & taylor's.

the owners say we have taken that into account. that is why we are doing all the experiences. we will see. it is a big gamble and thought ago, pre-iphone and pre-internet and will be a traffic nightmare. >> unless they are building a monorail or something. >> i think i am getting excited. ourselves.t kid we are all going to go. >> the thing is are you only going to go once? >> amen. >> matt townsend, great reporting -- i am in. matt townsend, great reporting. >> i will be watching bank

earnings. >> executives from boeing scheduled to testify before the senate regarding the now grounded 737 max 8. >> bloomberg technology is next. have a great evening, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> i am taylor riggs in san francisco, this is bloomberg technology. coming up in the next hour, start the prices. that is what facebook's news cap will do for publishers. plus, prime paying. one-day shipping is causing hurt now, but will benefit in the long run