tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg October 30, 2019 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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>> a very good morning. we are under an hour away from the market opening in japan and south korea. shery: good evening from new york. welcome to daybreak asia. our top stories this hour. the fed cuts again. jerome powell says it is time for a pause with monetary policy in a good place. hopes of a handshake in doubt as chile cancels the apec summit
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were the u.s. and china were expected to sign a partial trade deal. all-timeks hit an high. apple, lift, and facebook, all top earnings estimates. the start of trading begins in asia. the start of training in sydney trickling online. trading has already been underway in new zealand. weekve policy stocks in from the of it. new zealand trading flat at the moment. the kiwi dollar has been on the move. higher after 1% west bank said the rmb would pause from november from cutting rates. central-bank action is the name of the game as investors and asia decide for the meaning of what fed chair powell said overnight. it was a hawkish cut, saying things would stay on hold until the material changes to the
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economic outlook. in his press conference, suggesting inflation is key as to whether they would be any hikes down the road. that does not look likely at the moment. as wes looking positive go into a bank of japan decision day. shery: we have south korea's industrial production numbers jumping 2% after a contraction of 1.4% in the month of august. it is higher than estimated. industrial production growing 0.4%. the expectation was for a contraction of 1.9%. we have seen this industrial production slump. we are going to get ip numbers out of japan later. in about 50 minutes or so. we are expecting numbers out of south korea on friday. watch out for those.
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industrial production in south korea jumping and beating estimates. let's get the first word news. >> hopes of an initial u.s.-china trade deal are undoubted -- are in doubt after chile forest to cancel the apec summit where the leaders were forced -- were expecting to sign an agreement. organizers say they have no plan to hold the event elsewhere. chile also canceled a u.n. climate conference scheduled for december. israel is stepping up a security panel to wanted terry foreign investments after pressure from the u.s. to scrutinize flows from china. the move comes after benjamin netanyahu met with steven mnuchin. u.s.-born israel if it did not take aggressive steps to check for an investment, he could jeopardize telogen sharing agreements with washington.
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the u.s. justice department has struck a deal with fugitive anancier jho low to recoup billion dollars looted from one mbd. than $4 billion and used it to pay for a private jet and hollywoodnd finance movies. the settlement would be the yet from theery malaysian investment fund. board ofces say the french carmaker bsa group has approved a merger with fiat chrysler. the combined entity would be split equally between shareholders of each company. a $6 billionld get dividend. a 3 billionng stake. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg.
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haidi: some breaking news crossing the bloomberg. a japanese cabinet minister is set to resign. it is the second resignation in a week. the japanese justice minister plans to resign according to nhk. a resignation on friday -- sorry, i should say -- yes, we are getting more details on that. all right, the federal reserve has signaled a major policy turn. so againt will not do unless the economy maturely weakens. more.en hays is here with it was interesting because the cut itself seemed aching -- seemed like a hawkish cut. the comments from jay powell set the markets at ease. >> this was pretty much expected.
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when the september meeting the trade were intensified, when there was so much concern about the global economy, we did see up odds for a december cut around 80% the fed started bike. --ing out a -- started around 80%. the fed started by taking out a key phrase. answered questions in his prepared testimony. he made it much clearer what the fed is trying to say. >> we see the current stance of monetary policy is likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains wildly consistent with that outlook of modern -- of moderate economic growth, a strongly market, and inflation near our 2% objective. >> the bar is higher for a rate cut in december. may be ruled out unless the economy weakens.
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a cut are seen -- the chance are one in five. the market jumping to this conclusion that the fed might be thinking about hiking rates, chief powell seems to be -- when he was saying what would make them cut if the economy changes to really, appreciably. he is not talking about an inflation rise. it is much more about a shift away from the economy in a good place to something that is not so good. shery: stick around because we want to continue the conversation. vice chairman is robertetary economist eisen based. thank you for joining us. monetaryying the policy stance. what does this mean for future rate cuts come december? >> i think he was pretty clear.
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-- hit thehleen had nail on the head in describing what he said. he said the economy was performing about as expected, about at potential. said policy was calibrated appropriate for that kind of economic growth and performance. he was downplayed a little bit -- he downplayed a little bit the concerns that had been put on the table about the trade situation. that is still a potential source of uncertainty. right now, it is steady as it goes. number come out today. what was the source of the growth for this quarter? it was the consumer. to me, look at what the consumer is doing going forward. we start to see a real take out
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on the consumer. that is the kind of thing that is going to move the fed to make a policy move. it is interesting when you look at the bond market. they do not seem convinced we are not going to see another move from the fed. going into next year, the market still prices in another move by november. is this an insurance tactic against the worsening on the trade war and the worsening of global economic data? >> there is a number of people who are concerned about global growth, concerned about the trade situation, concerned about political risk in the world economy. all of that makes you nervous. therefore, makes you want a little more comfort and assurance. that is why they are thinking about a rate cut. >> we started talking about the
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fed in the last hour. charles plosser, he is complaining, why are you cutting today if the economy is doing better? here is what he said. he is concerned about the message the fed is sending. >> the problem with me is not so much the cuts or not cuts. it is the communications surrounding it that the fed is modeling the waters. >> he is saying, how are we going to know what he is going to do next? >> i think charlie is pretty much right on. i was not in favor of the cuts they did. i did not think they were necessary. it is hard to point to positive impacts they have had. they are using up potential ammunition that in the case we do have a turndown. i am not unsympathetic to his point at oh.
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-- at all. the more you talk down things, particularly when you are creating the concern on people's parts about risk and uncertainty and so on, that sort of puts people on edge and makes them nervous and makes them want a rate cut. i thought he laid out a little bit that are today than they have in the past. they say, we have an economy that is going to grow 2%, something like that, and that is the potential for the economy. that is what we have. when you put that together with the labor market situation, the fact that more people are working than ever, you have an historically though unemployment low, -- historically unemployment rate, wages are going up, these are all positive strengths for an economy growing at the rate.
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whatt fan the flames is partly what his message was. shery: people are getting anxious. the gtv chart on the bloomberg showing that consumer confidence has dropped to a four month low. i wonder how in line is soft data against hard data? in this case, i look at the nfib survey. what are small is doing? that is a smart -- that is a solid survey. i am more concerned about estment. inv if you look at the gdp number they came out, there is virtually nothing except for exports that is adding to gdp. it is mainly the consumer. number ismer spending not really consistent with a decline in consumer sentiment that we have seen.
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usually, you would see spending fall off. it is not fallen off -- it has not fallen off that much. whether the trade deal gets sign or gets kicked down the road, does that make a meaningful difference to the fed's trajectory are what the data looks like in the next few months? >> that is one of those particular areas that the fed is going to be watching very carefully. if it gets kicked down the road yeah, that isthen going to be another heightened risk. >> are we in a position where the fed may be on an indefinite hold. not so much on the front burner. inflation has been stuck below 2%. the fed has already said they would be willing to see a go higher. could the fed be on hold for a long time?
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>> that is a possibility, particularly since part of the discussion when people asked policywhether he thought was accommodative, he said he thought we had a slightly negative real interest rate. that is a sign of really positive accommodation on the part of policy. if you look at the chicago fed financial accommodations index, it says -- it is as accommodative as it has been in a financial crisis. the policy is accommodative. if the economy is growing, the real side is performing, and we have the employment situation, it can afford to wake to let employment -- to let inflation pick up. wait and see. be there for a long while.
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is a definite high probability event as far as i'm concerned. haidi: thank you so much for joining us. as well as our own global economics and policy editor. big tech does not disappoint. apple and facebook both reporting strong results. we will be live in second two for more. -- in same just go for more. shery: chile has canceled the apec summit were president trump and xi jinping were supposed to sign a partial trade agreement. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the doj expected to potentially announce further stimulus measures given the recent weakness and the fed cutting rates a few hours ago. this is daybreak asia. china had u.s. and seemed all set to sign a phase one trade deal at the apec summit in santiago. chile has canceled due to ongoing protest. what does that leave the trade deal? what is next? this is another hurdle in what was already a difficult ceremony. >> absolutely. you both sides in the last two weeks saying they made significant progress in terms of the phase one deal that involves agricultural purposes, a commitment around china involving intellectual property,
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and a commitment on the u.s. for holding off on tariffs. they were both looking toward the summit in chile. the announcement seemed to take the white house by surprise. they are saying -- u.s. officials -- that they are targeting a november date to get this deal signed. ordo not have a date location, but we have heard both been looking at alternative venues. we will have to see whether they find anything. we are hearing from the likes of the csis, that this just adds uncertainty. if they cannot get this phase one deal done, what happens to phases two and three? does this ease the pressure in terms of not having a fixed deadline on the negotiators to make concrete movement to get signedene -- this thing
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off. this could mean we do not get the second and third phases. it adds the uncertainty for businesses in the risk you knock it real traction. i should emphasize, u.s. officials are saying they are looking at this timetable as around november to get the deal done. haidi: china pmi today. what are we expecting? >> data at around 9:00 a.m. local time. the forecast is for manufacturing pmi to come in at 49.8. the sixth straight month of contraction. that will be in line with the september number. bloomberg intelligence think it is going to be weaker than the consent is. there are a couple of reasons. we had the national day holidays in october. you had some working days taken off the calendar. that is going to play into the
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mix. also, the external environment remains challenging. you see that from the pmi's in the legs of the euro zone. -- in the likes of the euro zone. business sentiment amongst small and private enterprises remain fragile as well. a furthert points to contraction for manufacturing pmi. they think that is going to be below the consensus number. we are going to get nonmanufacturing numbers, nonmanufacturing pmi. that is expecting to weaken. you are still looking at a number of 53.6 for nonmanufacturing pmi. tos all go -- all come down headwinds of the trade war. our analysts saying you are going to see continued pressure on the manufacturing pmi's intel there is a resolution in terms
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of the u.s.-china trade spat. shery: we have breaking news. -- the hong kong monetary authority cutting the bank rate to 2.3%. this is in line with the u.s. fed cutting. the hong kong dollar is pegged to the u.s. dollar. the hong kong essentially importing u.s. monetary policy. indicators range of weakening in hong kong given the months of protest. that is necessarily mean a rate cut would feed into the cost of credit because we have heard the hkma saying the local banks have their own funding considerations. the hong kong monetary authority following the fed and cutting the base rate to 2%. cao andp next, boeing esme bloomberg phased more fire from house lawmakers in his second day -- boeing ceo dennis
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haidi: this is daybreak asia. shery: the boeing ceos second day of see -- second day of testimony before u.s. lawmakers ended with families of the crash victims urging him to quit. -- 27 37 max planes crashed. >> we heard lawmakers preventing internal memos indicating boeing had advanced knowledge before the second crash that there were advanced problems. on the hearing yesterday before the senate, he began with family members holding up the pictures of victims right behind the ceo. that was a dramatic moment. it happened before the hearing. at the end of the hearing, which
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was before the house today, the family members confronted the ceo directly after his testimony told him he should resign. go back to iowa were some of the comments that were made. he indicated that he felt it was face the mistakes that were made. the internal memos on the flight control system and admitting to the house members that there were mistakes. >> we made some mistakes. as we have gone back and taken a look at this, moving from a single sensor to a dual sensor feed was part of that. providing additional training information, the feedback we have gotten from the pilots is part of that. revisiting these decades long industry standards. >> we should note that during the testimony tuesday before the
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senate, the stock did go up. the stock ended slightly lower. heraldthe sydney morning reporting that qantas engineers union is asking the airline to ground its entire fleet of boeing 737 jets. there was concerns about a crack in one of the planes. >> according to the report that a second crack has been found -- it is important to note that when concernsly were raised, they had asked all jets with a certain mileage be checked. the qantas flight is relatively young. these checks were not done on a lot of the planes. there is a concern from the union that they should be done. a quote from a qantas spokesman was they would never operate an aircraft unless it was completely safe to do so.
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>> we believe monetary policy is in a good place. we see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook. we see the risks to the outlook as perhaps having moved in a positive direction over the course of this time. we would have busy a certificate move up in inflation that is persistent before we would consider raising rates during our outlook overall is for moderate growth of around 2%. that is our outlook. could be better, could be worse. you never say you have achieved it.
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that is fed chair jerome powell after delivering a widely expected 30 straight rate cut chair -- third straight rate cut. is how we are seeing trading across our markets. we are seeing downsides for the broader aussie market off by 2/10 of 1%. new zealand trading flat at the moment. chicago nikkei futures have taken to the green cutie -- into the green. the kilos of the fed's latest evening move and costly futures looking like we will see a balance of have a percent going into the open. so far in theopen sydney session. we are kicking off earnings week with a down side of over 2% of anz after profits down cited.
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regulatory concerns for the difficult conditions for trading at the bank. treasury 1, 1 of the stocks trading to the upside. 18%.ts to china jumping we are seeing good gains across oil and energy. over 2%.y up the company saying it is on track to meet 2020 guidance. one of the time gainers on the is this morning, saying it reviewing the dividend policies as well as the potential restructuring or a spinoff by way of a demerger that could unlock 2 billion aussie dollars of value for shareholders. let's get you a first word news check. u.k. prime minister boris johnson off with opposition leader jeremy corbyn in their first parliamentary clash of the election campaign. corbin accused johnson of
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cutting funds to the national health service and planning to privatize it. jeremy corbyn would deliver an economic catastrophe for britain and a second referendum would ruin what should be a glorious year in 2020. >> the time for protest is over. it is time for leadership. that is what this government provides. >> hope of an initial u.s.-china trade deal is in doubt after protests forced chile to cancel the apec summit where the two leaders were expected to sign an agreement. organizers say they have no plan to hold the event elsewhere. chile also canceled a u.n. climate conference scheduled for december. more than three and is 80,000 pg&e customers are without power in california as strong winds fan more fires. the national weather service called an extreme morning from
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much of the southern half of the state. cruise thursday evening -- at least 10 large wild fires are burning across the state. the winds are expected to -- global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. jumped inle shares late trading after reporting fourth-quarter earnings across the board topping estimates for last quarter results. theing us for the latest is bloomberg technology analyst. we did see iphone sales declining. wire investors shrugging this off? >> that is a good question. expectations earlier this year were so low after the last holiday season, apple missed sales targets so badly. this is been a year where apple
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is rebuilding confidence, the confident of wall street. this quarter's results were a perfect example. holiday forecast for this holiday time beat expectations by one or $2 billion. wall street took that is very positive. the shares have already been rebounding on signs that the latest iphones have produced solid demand. if you look at the iphone business on a relative basis, it is still down year-over-year. that is a problem for apple. they are taking various steps to try to deal with that. there is nothing getting over it. the smartphone market in general is saturated. apple cannot escape that. shery: one of the ways they are trying to get over that was by raising prices in order to offset the sales declined. what will the new strategy be? >> there has been a reversal with that. the iphone 11 was $50 cheaper
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than the previous phone. competitive is compared to other phones, especially in the u.s. support is going away. next year, apple may bring you a brand-new phone that is $400, which is almost unheard of for apple. the strategy seems to be now that apple is going for a volume strategy. next year, they are going to try to sell a lot more funds by bringing out a wider range and cheaper devices. the goal from that point on is to make sure the hundreds of millions of older iphones -- when those are upgraded, those users do not go to android find. they keep them in the ecosystem and sell them more services and products. what did we hear about the china business, which even
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without trade tensions and tariffs was even without -- was even having its onset of challenges >>? there is a similar pattern. it is still shrinking year-over-year. the issues are not quite as acute as they were a year ago. that to laste year's holiday quarter, that was down 27%, which is a real shock. on a call, tim cook was saying trade tensions are a little bit less, which is great. they have had some pretty positive response to some of the products in china. again, it is still not that good, but it is a lot better than it was a year ago. haidi: thank you so much for joining us. tech, continuing regulatory challenges and political regulatory criticisms cannot stop facebook. sales rose better than
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projected. it also added 25 million new users. it's bring in the bloomberg technology reporter. what are the numbers tell us? it really goes to some of the criticism that has come from politicians about the dominance and influence of facebook globally. >> it does not seem that anything hurts facebook these days. it is under an antitrust investigation by four different groups, but here it comes out and has a record quarter first sales. 35 million new users on the quarter including 3 million who came from the u.s. and canada. we started to think maybe facebook is saturated here. they come out and add 3 million new users. it really was a testament to how big of a business they have built that they cannot be derailed or even hurt by the kinds of drama they are dealing with outside of the company. haidi: in the meantime, mark
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zuckerberg waited into the criticism about free speech. how did he perform? ofpart of the topical nature this was that way before s earnings call, twitter ceo jack dorsey came out and said they are not going to sell political ads. facebook ceo mark zuckerberg had to reply to that without directly replying. he repeated a lot of things we heard him say the last few weeks, which is not that he or any tech company should be deciding what is true and false. he sees political ads as an important part of the election process. he does not want to put restraint on that as facebook. he had to defend himself, something he has been doing, but it was heightened because of the fact that right before he went on, jack dorsey made the announcement. shery: we actually have sheryl
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sandberg responding to comments about political ads. take a listen to what she said. >> we are not doing it because of the money. this is less than 1% of our revenue. the revenue is not worth the controversy. what mark said is that we believe in free expression. we believe in free speech. ads can be part of that. shery: this is not the only criticism facebook is getting. we are also seeing criticism from antitrust regulatory authorities as well. we're talking about the sec, the doj. have we seen any impact on facebook so far? >> it does not appear to have had an impact. as we mentioned, the business numbers look better than expected. from mark or hear zuckerberg. he talked about the instagram acquisition today at length and reflected on what it was like one may acquired instagram and how they did not see the app as
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a competitor at a time -- at the time. they sell it as complementary to what they were doing. i cannot help but feel he is setting the groundwork for a broader argument that we will be hearing over the next year as these investigations move forward that facebook built instagram into the instagram we know today. when they acquire the company, it was not -- when they acquire the company, it was not the behemoth we know today. haidi: curling in san francisco with the latest. -- curt wegner in san francisco the latest. bloomberg withhe samsung. third quarter consolidated sales. andnumber at 62 trillion one. we are looking for a breakdown across businesses. he had the optimistic projected sales forecast from apple, which
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could suggest we see better demand for samsung. that side of the business as well. we had seen shares rising. largely on expectations that the terrible downturn in the ship business is about to end across the industry. we know prices have stabilized in the third quarter. the commentary is going to be interesting given we have had a rosy beat from the likes of sk hynix last week talking about a man coming from 3g as well as the stabilization of chip prices. we are also looking at shipments in the third quarter looking stronger from samsung. finally, we are looking for more details on the smartphone business given all of the excitement over this and some -- over the samsung development -- with the galaxy full. good -- just some numbers
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shery: this is daybreak: asia. coming hours, we will get another's sense of how well or unwell chinese economy is putting up a messed the slowdown and the trade war. dueracturing pmi data is for release. expecting it to follow further into contraction territory. our next guest is a little more optimistic. ethics rights and strategist. great to have you. let me start by painting a picture for viewers.
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this chart of the trade war thess starting two-way on -- manufacturing pmi and new export orders in the blue. you have expectations that we are seeing bottoming out when it comes to manufacturing? is it more worrisome that we are starting to see services that are traditionally a stronger pillar in recent months start to fall as well? >> good morning. we do expect rebound in china's pmi in october for two reasons. moderating risk of the u.s.-china trade were. we know the escalation of the trade war has seen -- has been one of the key west factors for global growth since the middle of 2018. growth has slowed down in the u.s. and china and perhaps the rest of the world. with the u.s. and china working
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deal,er on the phase one we think we will likely d -- likely see the deal signed before the end of this year. that a comprehensive deal, but a sufficient one that is able to boost confidence. that is why we are expecting economic activity to pick up correspondingly. secondly, china's fiscal stimulus has picked up notably since late q3, especially in september. economicld also help activity, especially infrastructure investment. on top of that, the central bank has cut the requirement ratio. to medium andted smaller blanks -- smaller banks collectively, releasing -- that should also help improve
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credit condition of both manufacturing sector and service sector. is it an issue of transmission we have not seen too much of an impact from the easing measures so far what you it will be forced to do more? -- or do you think it will be forced to do more? >> if you look aggregated finance growth in september, it is beating expectations. i believe it takes some time. only effective in the middle of september. the next one, we have effective in the middle of november. we expect to release 60 billion in liquidity. it will take a couple of months
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for the policy transmission to eventually release -- eventually reach the corporate sector, consumer sector. it will take some time because if you look at the statistics, some of the early q2 data in july and august primarily reflect market concerns, business sentiment weakening in response to escalation of u.s.-china trade wars. it mixes signals from q3. i think we will see more evidence of rebound of economic activity in q4. shery: what about the transmission to the rest of the asian region? form ofe around, the stimulus coming from beijing policymakers seems to be different from the past. >> that is a very good question. in fact, i think this round of china hasmulus --
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considered both the short-term impact but also keeping and i on the long-term macro leverage risk. leverage inoverall china is still at around 250% of gdp. it is quite elevated already. , mores in the near-term aggressive credit easing. i cannot think there is broad consensus of fiscal and monetary easing. in addition to that, we have started to see cpi rising. this is another risk in the next couple of months. with the chinese new year festival season coming up, primarily driven by pork prices, swine flu. however, i think from the september inflation, we are drivinghe pork prices
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more of a broader pick up of inflation pressure chain we do feel that -- inflation pressure. we do think there is a risk of cpi continuing to rise above 3%, perhaps breaking three to have percent or 4% in the next couple of months. that in the near term has constrained policy accommodation, especially monetary policy accommodation in the near term. say time around, i would china's fiscal and monetary policy is more measured, more targeted. in the near term, given the inflationary pressure is the priority relative to monetary easing. thank you for your time today. let's turn to japan. we are getting the september industrial production numbers coming in at 1.4% growth.
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this would be the preliminary numbers. beating estimates. the expectation was for growth of only .4%. this is a reversal from the contraction we saw in the previous month. we are seeing the growth rate of 1.1%. expectation was for a contraction. we had contracted the previous month more than 4%. this time around, production growing 1.1%. we had seen some signals from corporate plans that we could see an increase in industrial production. this is what we got after the south korean pedestrian -- south korean production numbers. ween the industrial slump had seen around the world. let's get more analysis with our chief asian correspondent who is right outside of the bank of japan in tokyo. it has been a conundrum for the boj. they had previewed they will be
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looking at their price trends, the global economic slowdown. as these numbers show, the domestic economy seems to be much more resilience. -- much more resilient. >> this could be an anomaly as well. the august numbers were pretty bad. tradeis a weak external system. the difficulties that china has right now with south korea. october 1, you had the value added tax up to 10%. october 1, that was expected to dampen demand. there were a lot of government countermeasures put into place as well as a lot of buying for the october 1 hike. this could be short-lived. we are in front of the bank of japan, we are overrating
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-- we are awaiting the rate decision. this is more ammunition for those to say, hold off right now. we will keep the status quote. the -- maybe they will put in more language saying they could ease further down the road. the bojnomists expect to stand pat. we had subsequently, hong kong cut rates as well. fixed asian -- chief asian correspondent there. including the former bank of japan board members. as well as ed rogers from rogers investment. stay tuned. this is bloomberg. ♪
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beating expectations on the back of sela demand for the smartphone business. also on displays as well. displays from the latest iphone helping to cushion the weaker side of the business, which has been in which apps for the last few quarters. the three-month end of september, better's expectations of five and have trillion and one that was the average projection. we are looking at profits when it comes to the memory industry. starting to improve as well coming out of the protracted downturn. estimates are that pricing for memory chips are starting to turn the quarter in the third quarter. the smartphone business has and if it up from huawei analogies abroad and demand for the iphone 11 at apple. shery: this coming at a time and we are hearing from south korea that the semi conductor inventory is down 13.7 percent.
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haidi: good morning. asia's major markets are just opening for trade. shery: good morning. welcome to daybreak asia. ♪ haidi: our top stories this thursday. a boost for japan's sentiment as industrial production beats expectations. how that may affect the central banks great plains. shery: samsung profit beats estimates. haidi: hope for the deal in doubt.
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whether the u.s. and china were expected to sign that partial trade pact. shery: let's get a quick check of the markets. japan, south korea coming online. both countries beating estimates on their industrial production numbers this morning. the nikkei up 3/10 of 1%. this after falling for the first time in eight sessions. they are still in that overbought territory above the 70 level on the 14 day. the japanese yen strengthening slightly. they've been holding within a range of around 108. policyead of the boj decision were most expect the boj to stand pat. the 10 year yield fell in the last session after reaching the highest level since june. we are seeing more pressure ahead of that boj policy decision. of course, after the boj left its bond portion amounts of a regular operation unchanged, take a look at what south korea
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is doing. two days of losses for south korea. rebounding and up half a percent. we are watching samsung electronics very closely. it is gaining 1.2% after their third-quarter net profit. -- profit beat estimates. the korean won has been under pressure after rising to four-month highs this week on some trade optimism. now, we are seeing it strengthen again. the asx 200 being led lower by energy and financials. falling for the first time in eight days. kiwi stocks, down slightly. let's get the first word news with ritika gupta. of of initial u.s. china trade deal are in doubt after ongoing protests forced chile to cancel next months summit where the two leaders were expected to sign an
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agreement. the white house says it will continue to press to finalize the phase one deal in the coming weeks. organizers say they have no plans to hold the event elsewhere. chile canceled a u.n. climate conference scheduled for december. israel is setting up a security panel to monitor foreign investment after pressure from the u.s.. the move comes after prime metster benjamin netanyahu with u.s. treasury secretary steven mnuchin. the was warned israel that if it didn't take aggressive steps to check for an investment, it could jeopardize intelligence sharing agreements with washington. number sources say the board of french carmakers have approved a merger with chrysler. it would create one of the world's largest auto manufacturers. the entity would be split equally between shareholders of each company. investors would get a $6 billion dividend.
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the u.s. just -- justice department has struck a record deal with jho low to recoup almost $1 billion looted. he orchestrated the theft of more than $4 billion. the settlement filed in california would be the biggest recovery yet from the malaysian investment fund. global news 24 hours a day on air and on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is labor. shery: thank you. the federal reserve has at the policy's button, cutting its key rate for the first time this .ear -- third time this year saying it won't do so again unless the economy materially weakens. kathleen hays is here with more.
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what does this mean? could the fed be on hold for the longest come in definitely basically -- longest, and definitely basically? >> they based these rate cuts on the fact that the u.s. economy was ok, worried about the global economy. worried about trade tensions. they said this cut, third time this year, that was expected. what will jay powell signal about what happens next? what he seemed to signal is, we are going to wait and see. the policy statement drop the pledge to act as appropriate to sustain the economic expansion. here's what jay elaborated on when he talked at the press conference. >> we see the current stance of monetary policy as unlikely to remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains probably consistent with their outlook. moderate economic growth, strongly the market, and
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inflation near are symmetric to present objective. >> he also said monetary policy is in a good place to keep the economy growing. our bloomberg ego fed team in washington is writing a great story tonight. they speculate, is he saying the fed has finally achieved a soft landing? a rateline, the odds of cut in december are down 21 in five. we will be watching very closely to see what the fed does next. shery: thank you so much for that. our global economics and policy editor. let's take a look at our markets reacting to the fed. mliv editor joins us now. the cut was described as hawkish but the comments seem to take the edge off of that. why we aret -- seeing treasury markets react? >> yes. that is probably right.
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investors are pretty happy to have heard that the fed may be on hold but they are not considering raising interest rates again. they made that very clear when jerome powell was speaking. he said they would need serious inflation for the fed to consider raising rates anytime in the future. it almost gives an asymmetrical biased to the market, what the fed is saying is that we are on hold. if there is we data, we would cut rates again. if inflation takes up, we will look through it. we call it a temporary move and we will worry about that at some other time. from the market point of view, this is a good scenario. they can be sure that rates have come down 75 basis points. .hey will stay there at least that gives businesses more confidence. they can plan going ahead. people can focus on what is really going on. when you have positive earnings, that helps the stock market.
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the bond market can go sideways there. people can start looking at other fundamental pictures as well. if we start to get some reasonable data, we saw the gdp in the usa wasn't too bad. we have seen data in asia today which is really good. ip beat for japan and korea. the goldilocks scenario is not too far-fetched. from here, assets could do reasonably well until the end of the year. things are not looking too bad. shery: it's difficult. if you are looking what potential developers can make the fed start cutting again or hiking again, we spoke to the former philly fed president and he said he doesn't understand. if the economy is doing well, why did they go today? that said confusion as to what would make them move in the next step. >> they made it pretty clear
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that their rate cuts are seen as a insurance policy. if you look back at the previous times when the fed has done something of this type, 75 basis points in total seems to be about the measure they used as being an insurance cut. back as jeromet powell is saying. they can hold in way for a while and see how things develop. fed is pretty clear that they are sensitive to what happens in financial markets especially. equities were to really go into a tailspin, as they did in december last year, the fed would probably be pretty quick to reassure markets that they will come back. for the time being, they will be pretty happy to watch the data come through. it will be hoping.
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they don't need to do anything for some time. shery: we also get the boj rate decision today, not to mention ego data out of china. what will matter most for markets? >> the big one will be the china pmi. if it was to miss by a large factor, that could really derail markets today. it's expected to come in below 50 again. it has been steadily around that level for a while. people are getting used to the idea that the chinese economy has slowed. it seems to be stabilizing at a slower pace. it is not deteriorating too much more than it was earlier in the year. at least people can see that china is finding a place over there. doj, not too much excited from them. the yen has weakened a bit. japanese stocks have been recovering. bank of japan can afford to hold.
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they are ready to do more easing if they need to. they can push it back into next year. there is no urgency for the boj to move just yet. shery: thank you so much for that. breaking news out of japan. shinzo abe speaking to reporters in tokyo, apologizing to the japanese people. saying he feels great responsibility for the appointment of justice minister who has just announced her resignation. it is the second cabinet minister to resign in one week. shinzo abe saying he has decided to appoint -- as the successor. next justiceme the minister. this also coming after last week we saw the japanese trade afterer resigning accusations of election law violations. that also just a month after
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haidi: this is daybreak asia. bloomberg economics expects little change in policy or key targets from the bank of japan later thursday. they are not ruling out a minor -- forwardr guidance guidance. let's head to tokyo for some insights into the japanese economy. stephen engle is standing by with the former bank of japan policy board member. >> that's right.
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later today, we are expecting the boj rate decisions, then a press conference with corroded. no changes expected. maybe a change in some of that forward guidance is what they will provide. after the a few hours fed had that rather hawkish rate cut. let's bring in our guest to will over the numbers that just came out. we have our guest, thanks so much for joining us. to the strong numbers from industrial production compared to august change the narrative of what we will hear today? >> i don't think so. this ip data is fluctuating. the machinery order is not doing well. inhave signs of weakness
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terms of business investment. consumer sentiment is fluctuating. overall, the economy is very good shape. >> was there a pickup ahead of the vac increase? there have been government countermeasures. >> exactly. thehe last few times japanese have raised the vap, into recession. they did artificial stimulus. >> this time, the government spot desperate lots of money. that's why you don't see any panic. people are quite calm because there are a lot of temporary subsidies. >> you don't expect any cut today? >> i don't think so. exchange rate is moving around when away. that's a good number. i don't see any why -- any reason why the boj we do additional monetary easing. >> what does it mean if he extends the forward guidance?
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right now, the forward guidance is pledging for extremely low rates at least until the spring of 2020. so, they extend that date until the fall of 2020? does that mean much? >> they will maintain current low interest rates or lower. deepen the negative interest rates. beyond thetend spring of 2020. that is really worse. it doesn't mean much. everybody knows that. there is no impact on stimulating aggregate demand. the boj wants to show that they are willing to do some actual if necessary. >> what ammunition does he have? he has shown willingness to lower those negative rates. >> that is the only option. that is really risky. when we think about the financial sector, insurance
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companies, they don't want that. kuroda knows it. it's a dilemma. >> what are the big costs? >> profits are dropping. it's a very bad impact on the insurance and asset management. it could really really undermine the financial sector. on the interest rates are low. what can we expect by having lower interest rates? it is not going to increase demand. >> how does the fed decision overnight impact what they might be mulling in the building over here? >> the boj feels lucky. they don't say that they will cut interest rates further. they are hinting that they are not going to do it. that is good for the boj. they don't have to worry about the impact on appreciation.
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>> we have heard corroded talking about the steepening yield curve, that that is something he is welcoming. >> on the long and, yes. 20, 30 years. they want to increase it. >> is kuroda satisfied with the current steepening? >> they want to steepen further. they want forty-year bonds. you can see that they worry about the impact on the issuance companies. strengths current temporary? we will go in the cycle again because of the external situation. what stimulus is there? there has been a lot of natural disasters, big typhoons, lots of rain. there will have to be some public work projects. >> there's a lot of damage on
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the infrastructure and housing and buildings. government has to spend a lot of money. someps the boj will do official lending programs to the commercial banks which provides some financing to the area. the boj may do that. the boj may do that. >> on the vap hike, there hasn't been a big outcry. it was baked into the equation for quite some time. people expected it. there were those countermeasures i talked about. when will we start seeing the downside to that? people there -- put their money under the caps on soup and stop spending. ussubsidies are provided to if we use noncash payments. you could get quite a big refund. that will be gone by june,
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sometimes middle of next year. then people might start to feel things are becoming very expensive. >> they will get some rebates if they pay their bills electronically and also free kindergarten. >> that will continue. >> you are saying that kind of stimulative impact will start waning by mid next year. isn't that when the limbic system -- olympics are starting? >> this will happen after the limbic's. that is very important. >> it is not pretty after the olympics. thank you so much. we are sitting on the corner of the boj and a shopping mall here. we are waiting for the boj decision later today. >> all right. thank you so much for that.
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steve engle in tokyo for us at the boj. breaking news crossing now. china planning to scrap the allegedly due to clashes between senior management teams as well as uncertainty over how the united states, given the backdrop of the trade tensions and geopolitical tensions, how the u.s. would treat global assets. this is according to the financial times. really, this treatment of this agrochemical giant and how it would be traded by u.s. national security watchdogs has been a key headache in these talks of the potential megadeal between these stayed on groups. the merger would really put to an end this ambition to create one of the world's largest chemical conglomerates. we have been reporting various senior human resources moves between the two companies in
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setting up for this merger deal. willeport says sinochem attempt to take over some of chemchina's most valuable assets. therefore, a smaller acquisition process than the big megamerger initially planned. we will get you more details on that breaking news according to the ft. meantime, you can get a roundup of the other stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. bloomberg subscribers can go to your terminal in the bloomberg anywhere app. getk those setting so you the news on the industries and asset classes that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪
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reduce proportion of its .ividends the bank maintained its second half dividends. $.80 a share, 70% of the payout will be eligible for banking credits. it came in line with estimates. shery: alibaba is said to be aiming for share sales in hong kong as early as november. reuters says the company plans to seek approval shortly after its big online retail event on november 11. alibaba may lift towards the end of november for an early december and raise as much as 15 -- dollars. it would be a major boost for hong kong after ongoing protests. spoke softbank group ceo to a near empty room at a major saudi investment form, fielding
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speculation surrounding the diminished appeal of his vision fund. saudi arabia contributed $45 billion to the first vision fund. it didn't mention any saudi commitments to the second fund. southbank is planning a $5 billion write-down to the original vision fund after a plunge in the value of holdings including we work and uber. shery: mark zuckerberg has denied that facebook's 2012 acquisition of instagram harmed competition and should've been blocked. he told investors on an earnings call that instagram wasn't a true competitor and has only grown because of the social media giants resources. the u.s. federal trade commission is investigating whether facebook has violated antitrust laws. let's get a quick check of the big movers in south korea. profit beatinget estimates coming in at 6.1 one trillion want. other chipmakers in south korea
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ritika: the fed has cut again, reducing interest rates by 0.25% for the first time this year. jerome powell signals a pause in further cuts unless the economic outlook been to really changes. he believes monetary policy is make a place. treasury weakens on the announcement. stock in the dollar showed straight gains. >> the current stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate as long as incoming information about the economy remains broadly consistent with our outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong labor market,
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and inflation near are symmetric 2% objective. squaredboris johnson off with jeremy corbyn in the first parliamentary clash of the election campaign. corbyn accused johnson of cutting funds for the national health service and planning to privatize it. johnson said corbyn would deliver an economic catastrophe for britain. >> the time for protests is over, mr. speaker. it is time for leadership. that is what this government provides. ritika: more than 360,000 pg&e customers are still without power in california as strong wind fans more fires. the national weather service calls an extreme warming for much of the southern part of the state through thursday evening. at least 10 large wildfires are burning across the state. the wind is expected to ease on the weekend. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700
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journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. america could do. this is bloomberg. shery: let's get a quick check of the markets. we are seeing the japanese make a gaining ground after falling for the first time in eight days. we are seeing the japanese yen holding in the pattern at around 108 level. this coming ahead of that boj policy decision. the nikkei and topics gaining ground at the moment. be of 7/10 of 1%. the big mover right now is samsung. it is the heaviest weighted stock on the cost be. in aboutping the most a week after its third-quarter net profit beat estimates. the asx 200 is under pressure. energy and financials leading the decline. haidi: the u.s. and china have seen the offset sign of phase
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one in a few weeks at the apec summit and santiago. chile has canceled a meeting due to ongoing protests. let's talk for chief asia eckert -- economic. where does this leave the trade deal? >> the critical question is, expectations are so high now that some kind of a deal will be done. the question is whether or not this is a logistical hurdle and both sides will agree on another venue and push ahead with signing some kind of interim deal in mid-november. or, it becomes an excuse. a lot of observers have been saying, even a deal that they , the terms about will take a longer time to work out than the mid-november deadline the people have been talking about. will they use this as an excuse to put off the deadline and
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lower-level officials continue negotiating for some time until they do sign off on an agreement? it is up in the air. the expectations are main that both sides are pushing toward the deal and that they will want to sign it somewhere. at the same time, there's an element of doubt in the whole process. shery: potentially that loss of momentum could be pretty damaging to sentiment. with the market be looking at? one would assume they were considering a plan b if they were serious about this, given the developments in july. an early response from either beijing or washington to put alternative venues on the table or signal that they are both going to agree on some kind of a neutral ground would certainly soothe concerns and suggest that both sides are on for this. we know they have made some progress in some areas.
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both economies are starting to feel some pain from the trade war. these are a political imperative to get this done. if the narrative emerges that both sides are dragging their feet, they are not agreeing on a venue, neither side wants to go, then we go back to that second scenario whereby expectations might become lower-level. that mid-november deadline could slide. we continue to watch and wait as always. economicsasia correspondent. percentsorts raising a on last year. they are expected show gains in quarterly profit despite the trade war and slowing chinese economy. our next guest says the rest of 2019 will remain tough but he's bullish on the mac market in 2020. great to have you with us. strategy to -- this
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mass markets, is it starting to turn out well? >> in macau, the trend of going away from vip toward mass and premium mass, cause i vip in that market, it has been the trend for five or six years. melco has been at the forefront of going into the premium mass-market with their city of dreams property in macau and the expansion they had last year, opening up the morpheus development. now it seems to be successfully working even what is a pretty soft market. they are gaining market share. haidi: is the worst over? >> well, the third quarter was fairly weak. melco had pretty good numbers. they took 300 basis points of market share overall in revenues. that was widely expected by investors. if you look at the numbers
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within the quarter for the entire market, bnp was still down over 20%. mass was still healthy, growing at around 11%. we expect mass trends to continue to be fairly strong over the next two quarters, maybe showing a little bit of relative weakness compared to the third quarter just on more difficult comparisons. the vip market over the last month seems to be at least stabilizing. if that trend continues in vip, which we think it might over the next five months, and mass continues to hold up in the high sectordigit, the macau is set for a re-rating upwards. that is what typically happens in this space. shery: why would you see stabilization in the vip market when we see the chinese economy slowing down? >> the vip market is a very nuanced market in terms of what drives negativity. what we have seen over the past
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year with vip being negative, we just get into it is your comparison sexier. these comparisons always matter. you have one year of a pretty severe downturn. it makes the following year easier. your year-over-year negativity won't be as bad. if you look at what has been driving the negative aspect of vip, it has been a couple of things. the macro environment in china has been soft. that leads to high rollers having less of a desire to spend money on gaming and other high-end luxury items. the other issue is liquidity. that has been a real negative factor for vip. that is liquidity at the player level, where many of these players are asset rich, and when liquidity gets constrained the way it has been in china, there's a tendency to have softly up in numbers. that may be loosening up as china continues to go down the
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path of monetary stimulus. vip doesn't matter that much. it represents less than 40% of gross gaming revenues. it represents below 20% of contribution for this industry. the future for macau is about the mass market. that is what every operator is focused on. shery: what about those property developments? how will this be the game changer for some of these casinos? year, we haven't had any new property openings. next year, we won't have any new property openings until esther a.m. opens their new property towards the end of the year. withll go two years plus no new property openings in macau. that does create a tendency for stagnation. players may be don't come as frequently when there's not any property opening. when we start getting into the end of 2020, we will have two large properties opening up. galaxy opening up phase three.
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we will have esther a.m. opening up. -- sjm opening up. that bodes well for the mass market growth in macau. is of the constraints capacity constraints in terms of hotel rooms. macau's already running at 92% occupancy almost every month. rooms inore hotel macau to continue to drive mass-market at 10% or so long-term growth. vip will be the variable. it is driven by a small number of players. that will be volatile. we will have high-growth years and negative years. to continue. the real focus should be on mass markets. haidi: have you seen much of an impact from the protests and unrest in hong kong? do you expect to see that worsen? >> we don't think there has been much of an impact on macau. it has been marginally negative.
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some visitation from china has reduced. that has been partly made up with greater visitation flows into macau directly from china. we are also lapping difficult comps because the macau hong kong bridge had opened last november. inare not seeing an impact the conversations we have had with operators. they are not really pointing at the hong kong situation as any kind of negative on macau. marginally, probably. nothing that is impactful. shery: thank you so much for joining us. stay with hong kong. the city releasing its latest economic growth numbers later thursday. third-quarter gdp is expected to confirm the city has slipped into recession, battered by andhs of violent protests the ongoing trade war. we got a preview from hong kong.
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we saw a couple of stimulus packages from the government. they haven't helped at all. >> they have helped in some sectors. for example, property a little bit. overall, the economy is expected to contract further in the third-quarter. the predictions for that falling by 0.6%. that is after a 0.4% contraction in the second quarter. that would put it in technical recession for the first time since the global financial crisis. hong kong's economy has been assaulted from all sides. take a look at retail sales. infelt by a record 23% august. for september, even further. down by 25.6%. that date is out on friday. we will look at those numbers. plunging the most since 2003. we have another bloomberg terminal we can show you. even before the hit to tourism
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and retail precipitated by protests, the trade war was already sending the economy down. carrie saying the near-term outlook for trade remains dismal. this survey that shows that businesses expect conditions to worsen. haidi: pretty painful indicators. do we have any kind of gauging as to how long the pain is going to last? that is a much more difficult one to forecast. it depends on how long these protests go on for. most people are saying there isn't any quick and insight to them. .f course, the trade war a for your contraction is very likely. carrie lam did say that relief measures will be provided as necessary. hong kong focuses on four main economic pillars.
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one of those is trading and logistic. trade and shipping is really a big part of that. it has taken a big blow. some sectors have shown resilient -- resilience. these are the latest figures we have. hsbc didhong kong's show that revenues in hong kong group in the latest earnings. executives have said there have not been a significant outflow of funds. that sector is holding up. economists agree that the gloom could last a fair while. next, we speakp exclusively to the world's largest industrial real estate as theynt trust continue a multibillion-dollar spending spree. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: this is daybreak asia. haidi: one of the world's willst warehouse owners exchange almost $10 billion for its stock. this is its latest drive to dominate the industrial rate space. ofy have been a big acquirer rivals in recent years. joining us now from tokyo is the company's chairman and ceo. great to have you. does the pace of acquisition and expansion continue? what does that mean for expansion in asia? predictvery hard to strategic acquisitions. those opportunities can't be planned for. companiesught for since 2015 for a little bit more than $30 billion. that only represents about once
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those transactions are completed, a little less than 30% of our asset base. with we are at 110 billion the completion of the liberty transaction. we will be at 125 billion of assets. it sounds like big numbers. it is not significant. by far the most important aspect of our growth strategy is organic growth through operations. u.s., this is a huge e-commerce play. it's an amazon fueled level of growth we are seeing. in asia, it is quite different. structure of your business change when it comes to markets like indonesia or china, where in terms of e-commerce in delivery, the logistics picture is very different, and the demand is very different as well? >> we are actually not in indonesia. we are in china in japan.
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the economies fall within a continuum. the very developed economies like the u.s. and europe already have a very strong installed base of bricks and mortar retail. e-commerce penetration is in the teens. it is growing rapidly. and some of the markets in asia where the established retail network has not been built in the bricks and mortar world, e-commerce penetration is much higher. the growth in that sector across the board is very significant. we shouldn't forget that littlerce, at most, is a bit over 20% of the entire business. estate is driven by consumption of all forms. including e-commerce. it's not entirely any calmer story. even though that gets most of the headlines. we are pretty basic aspect of growth in the economy everywhere. shery: here in the u.s., you
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compete with blackstone when it comes to those warehouses. we just had the blackstone vice chairman talking about the opportunities in australia. take a listen. >> we bought a bunch of retail. we have been net sailors -- sellers of retail. it has become an internet shopping destination. shery: what do you think of australia? it's a good market. it is pretty small, very well served with local competitors who are entrenched. for the moment, it's not within our growth plans. there is plenty of growth opportunity in the larger markets around the world. we are really in a different business than blackstone. we both obviously love warehouses. that's our only focus, that's all we do. we don't do anything else. as a result, we are not in the business of trying to buy list
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ask ones -- would just year and sell retail the other year and rotate around. we are in the business of building and operating company focused on logistics as our sole focus and growing that business around the world. we feel it's a business that has 10-20 years.her haidi: you have been 20 years in japan. what opportunities do you see their? how is the logistics market looking? >> it's interesting. i'm here in japan to celebrate with the team of our 20th anniversary of being in the market. my colleagues actually invented the modern logistics business in japan. it didn't really exist when they first started. japan is obviously a very developed economy. it's logistics business has changed over the years from one on exports ofly
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goods to other countries, to a consumption market where japan imports a lot of its consumption goods. it is beginning to have a logistics infrastructure that is more u.s. like. the number of modern logistic buildings that can accommodate this kind of transformation are less than 3%, maybe 4% at most. we think the other 95% is just a matter of time before that transforms into a logistics base. it is counterintuitive. it's a mature economy was slow growth. the logistics business has very strong growth project -- prospects going forward. haidi: interesting. you said that in addition to the acquisitions that have made headlines on bloomberg, you will be looking at some asset disposals as well. have you decided what assets they will be? is that part of a broader consolidation that might happen? >> yes.
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we operate in a very specific quality spectrum of logistics. we are interested in large, metropolitan areas where the majority of the consumption takes place. any portfolio acquisition will have some of those properties but will also have other properties. in the case of liberty, there are some office building assets which are clearly not a business we are in. over time, we will be disposing of the office portfolio in the logistic assets that are in smaller markets in the ones that are not within our target locations. al in all, we think about little under 30% of the entire portfolio will eventually be sold. we will be very patient in that strategy. shery: how has the macroeconomic picture, like slowing global economy, trade tariffs, affected your business and logistics? world is obviously
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slowing. the u.s. continues to be reasonably strong. china slowing down. latin america is slowing down a little bit. europe is slowing. we are in a business that is growing at double-digit growth rates. the underlying growth of the economy is not as important for our prospects as the capturing of the share or shift in share between regular bricks and mortar or retail and e-commerce. e-commerce needs three times the logistics base as regular retail does. we are in the unique situation that even in a slow-growing economy, we have the tailwind of e-commerce that is making our business more interesting than the underlying economy. i expect that to continue for some time into the future. shery: great insight into your industry. they give so much.
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0.5%. the cost be gaining on the back of those. samsung results were better than expected. shery: take a look at futures trading at the moment. u.s. futures unchanged after the s&p 500 closed again at a record high. the offshore yuan holding steady. strength, potential optimism of of that china u.s. trade deal. aipac has been canceled so we will have to keep a close eye on that. coming up, we hear from former chinese deputy finance minister for his thoughts on the u.s. china trade war. the china open is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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