tom: yes. they never should. if it is on some buddies mind, it is probably already in the stock so i don't think you should trade based on political risk. scarlet: i say that because the bernie sanders have mine came in with the heart surgery. caroline: it is all about trade. earnings doing potentially well. thinking

abigail: the s&p 500 clearly outperforming, up 23%, on pace for its best year since 2013. the energy sector is a positive at this point this year but up 6%. looking at beaten-down sectors to get some ketchup potential. energy is one of them. some traders are going that way on the day. renita: i'm taking a look at marble technologies, which is rising to its highest since august, upgraded to outperform from market perform at wells

fargo. gary mobley says he has seen a we exhibition in the data center capital expenditures. to put it in perspective, the stock is up more than 65% so far this year. he says marble is seeing robust demand for components from 5g base stations to nokia and samsung. that the company can generate $600 million in 5g customers.it's they also expect to see this demand for 2019 and 2020. taylor: i am looking at shares of uber. set theing enough, lyft bar pretty high last week after they had pretty tough top and bottom lines. the pressure is on now really uber as they look to diversify from uber money, uber

eats, growth of all those different lines of business. i want to take a look at a chart here that i am showing in my terminal. you are showing some of those profits impact the yields of the bonds, yielding almost 8%. a lot of this is the cost of ab-5, that legislation that takes effect january 1. they are saying that could cost them thousands if not millions of dollars. it would force the companies to treat the drivers as employees, not contractors. caroline: let's return to the inside track with sarah ponczek. risks,t uber, regulatory the lockup period is expiring,

but your perspective on what has been a brutal time for ipo's. we have pellet on, softbank -- peloton, softbank tomorrow. this?you stand on all of the commona lot of thread is they have been asset light companies and subscription models. if the world is going cyclical, reflationary, inflation picking up, subscription models don't work well. caroline: you think inflation will pick up? to: if you look at employee population ratio, it is telling us 50 basis points increase next year and inflation. joe: speaking of inflation, how much is some of this latest bout of investor optimism engine on those comments by powell about the high bar of rate hikes and

the need to see sustained upward level of inflation. the comments from powell were definitely cited as some of the reason. i think you have to acknowledge the argument -- rlet: sorry to interrupt, but uber has come out with results. loss per share of $.68. analysts were looking for a loss of $.63. gross bookings, weaker than expected. taylor mentioned some of the other parts of the business like uber eats. -- on thisre looking market, it eats the consensus -- it is which is narrower than what was

anticipated. year, they expect a -- narrowings of the full year loss, the forecast for the year. still not profitable. caroline: what will happen when the lockup expires? , this ist to remember a stock that has fallen 30%. do you want to lockup that at the moment? scarlet: what do you think we will see in two days for a company like uber. tom: i think a lot of these have massive profits. i would think they would want to diversify. anyone invested in uber have 50 other portfolios, some of them

are going to go public. why not take some risk off? joe: some of those numbers, and i am picking about those lyft numbers last week, they looked good initially and some dumped them. uber is down 50%, obviously bouncing around a lot already. the type of news, --iously for as much as lyft, investors did say the company would be profitable by 2021 and they did seem to like that. the magic words in the past, if they want to be more optimistic on a company like uber that is burning through so much cash, they want is aderstand that there

plan in place. they don't want to keep spending cash to just expand by scale and know that they are actually going to be a prophet turning company in the next couple of years. , it is interesting that inflation is something you were looking at when it comes to these asset-light businesses. do you think the investment mindset has changed, that we care more about profitability rather than monthly active users when it comes to the big social media companies or, when it comes to uber, the fact that the gross bookings were missing. i think not everything should be a subscription business and not everything has network effect that makes monopoly value capture. in a scenario where wages go up, competition rises, subscription models have to outgrow that.

in a subscription market, that is the challenge. i think it is tougher to differentiate yourself if we are seeing wave after wave of subscription businesses. scarlet: how many companies do you think can make the transition from subscription model to something else? tom: apple can flip either way. what would you do if apple went either way. true monopoly companies do not need a subscription model to work? joe: one number that is standing out for me is the miss on uber eats. companies, these this was supposed to be a positive area of diversification, expanding those network effects. hardly anyone is making money

and even the bookings are not as good. caroline: let's talk about an area you do like. you like hedge funds. how is that working? do you like hedge funds -- hedge funds, lower exposure inequities? where are you seeing that possibility to get into at the moment? on: i am strangely bullish active equity management in the next few years. as you know, what has been brutal to the active management industry is falling interest rates. it makes fees look expensive. if rates go up, it is great for money-management. there are a smaller number of active managers. the things that were more bullish like labor shortage going asset heavy, millennials. thosean overweight whereas passive indices get sector weights to those. our granny shots are

outperforming by almost 600 basis points this year and it is all thematic traits. scarlet: what is your call on bitcoin? tom: we published a piece last week. the bitcoin misery index actually troughed october 24. we think bitcoin is about to participate risk on the way the s&p has. sarah ponczek, tom lee, thank you so much. that does it for "the closing bell." romaine bostick steps in next deepere will be diving into hooper result and the sharing economy. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: we are live from bloomberg's world news headquarters in new york. numbers whenurse it comes to uber. it looks like they have to a large extent missed when it comes to their overall numbers, user numbers in particular. they are narrowing their forecast for a loss so we will have to dig into the upside and downside for this particular company. let's get a look at the results with bloomberg intelligence senior analyst. a lockout. expiring,ut period concerns may be about the loss

of a subscription not rising as much as expected. clear isnow, what is the company is focusing on driving revenue per user. they have stopped focusing on user growth, which is what you are seeing. the user growth has decelerated. the focus is now on improving the path to profitability. that is what investors care about when it comes to the rideshare sector. i have to say that topline numbers look pretty good. revenue growth up 30%. they did not miss by much. it is the user number they missed on. i it shows you they are focusing more on profitable growth. romaine: stick with us. we want to bring into the conversation a professor at business at the nyu stern school of business and the author of "the sharing economy: the end of employment and the rise of

ground-based capitalism, -- of crowd-based capitalism." will uber be able to eat some of these additional costs? >> at this point, it looks like uber is trading off growth for profitability. , oncek, in the long run , the growthehicles potential of this sector will be immense. what i have been hoping is that uber can hold on and continue to grow steadily until that point without sort of paring back on user growth. i think today's numbers are telling us that their ceo is focused very heavily on the path to profitability rather than taking the amazon strategy of ofing, profitability in some

the markets, let's sacrifice profitability for growth. joe: i feel like this is a .ommon theme across peopleit with wework, were like, tell us how profitable some of your original offices were. people still trying to wrap their head around profitability in new york city or los angeles. should these company be offering more granular info? >> uber gives you more granular metrics as compared to lyft it i think what -- compared to lyft. i think what investors want to know more about, the profitability as it comes to certain regions. models,based on our uber is generating the bulk of their revenue growth and profits

in developing markets and subsidizing their growth and expansion in asia-pac. it is the subsidies that they are using to expand in asia, that is what is eating into the profits. i think that is what they should kind of give more clarity. back to the amazon analogy, we tolerate losses for over a decade because there was wasidence that amazon profitable in the early markets. it was clear that they were sacrificing profits for growth rather than questions about whether they had a profitable business model at all. have a uber and lyft profitable business model in the united states, perhaps in sao paulo, mexico city as well.

showing there are operating margins i think could show investor confidence. caroline: how long do you have until autonomous drivers. if we are just getting rid of the drivers, apologies drivers, but you are saying that will be the rocket fuel? who then wins? players ine multiple multiple places? >> i think you can have multiple players because the market is so big. once you have realistic autonomous vehicles, the unit economics change in a way that makes, say, half the united states up for grabs. that is a $1 trillion per year market. i am talking about the market people buying used cars. globallook at the

market, it may be low-margin but it still makes bigger than the market that sustains evaluations of facebook and google. i think there can be multiple winners. differentiated product with multiple players. the size of the market is so big that we see it sustaining o, uber,ns for waym lift. romaine: uber has lost a few executives i believe since the last earnings report in august where they had the loss. is he doing the things he needs to do to instill confidence within the rank and file employees. >> i think so. dara comes with a history, running expedia for so many years, where they made an acquisition. i think if there is anyone out there who has the experience,

given that uber kind of place in that travel place where expedia is a big online travel company, you definitely have the experience in terms of getting this company to profitability. joe: great stuff. really appreciate the insights. professor of business at the nyu stern school of business. he is the author of "the sharing economy." coming up, mcdonald's announcing another executive departure today after the ceo was fired. we will discuss that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

ousted ceodonald's

steve easterbrook after this consensual ceo with an employee materialized. us right now from washington with more on what is going on, bloomberg opinion columnist sarah. your column basically says, keep calm and carry on. easterbrook, by most accounts, was a successful leader for this company over the last 4.5 years. why shouldn't i be worried if i am an investor? basicallycessor offers more of the same. he is the most safe and logical choice. he has been right by his side through these initiatives such as the big restaurant remodeling program and revamping the menu. he has been integrally involved with those decisions.

more of a passing of the baton. joe: what specifically is working at mcdonald's, in terms of the next leg of decisions, the strategic moves? atthe next leg is winning digital and delivery. some groundwork has been laid with their partnership with uber east. -- uber eats. it will be up to mcdonald's to capitalize on that and build more sales in that space. i also think watching the value-conscious customer, potentially with a recession looming, that is certainly a diner that mcdonald's depends on. 1, 2, 3 value menu will be important to keep in traffic and business up at the restaurant. when you i know that were writing your opinion piece in particular, that the decision

made was the right one in giving fairness to the whole organization. there are concerns about harassment in the organization in general. coo leave,o seen the the vco leave. are you thinking this is a steady ship and it just sometimes look this way? >> it is hard to connect those dots. the chief marketing officer, the chief communications officer, those happened a little over a month ago, i believe, and don't necessarily seem connected to that issue. you're right that mcdonald's has to be thinking big picture about how the movement is shaping corporate values. we have seen that come to the fore with the allegations about discrimination and sexual harassment in their restaurants.

the board has to be taking a holistic look here and it is good that they acted swiftly and decisively on easterbrook. any new product's we should expect about -- expect out of mcdonald's? easterbrook was known for expanding the food options. what do they have left in the pipeline? >> they are testing beyond meat in the canada market. that would be a huge coup for beyond meat to secure that business and i'm sure people will be watching to see if that gets a wider rollout. caroline: we appreciate you coming on and discussing some of your thoughts with us. coming up, competition heats up in crypto is more state actors look into the currency. this is bloomberg. ♪ the game doesn't end after that insane buzzer beater.

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with i'm mark crumpton bloomberg's first word news. president suffered another setback in his effort to guard his financial information. a federal appeals court today refused to block a subpoena for his tax records. the subpoena was issued by the manhattan strict attorney. it moves the trump tax case closer to issued at the u.s. of -- closer to a showdown at the u.s. supreme court. hereon -- a statement came as iran said it has a new prototype centrifuge that works 50 times faster than those allowed under the landmark deal. >> the european union remains

committed to the implementation of the jcpoa because it is a matter of respecting international agreements, it is a matter of our security. announcement today came as iranians marked the 40th anniversary of the 1979 embassy takeover and the start of the hostage crisis. u.k. brexit party leader nigel barrage says he is certain that u.k. would not leave the eu without the support of his party. he says his party will contest every constituency in england, scotland, and whales unless conservative prime minister boris johnson scraps his eu divorce deal. he asked today, what has boris johnson done? >> he has picked up that treaty, amended it, made it slightly better in terms of the customs

union membership for great britain. -- a path ofhe has the united kingdom despite his promises that he would never do such thing. mark: the brexit party says leaving with a deal as johnson wants would mean continuing to follow some eu rules and having years of talks on negotiations. new york city's police commissioner is retiring. mayor bill de blasio made the mayor bill de blasio made the announcement at a city hall news conference. he said that commissioner james o'neill will be replaced by chief of detectives dermot shay. andill wanted citizens officers to understand the work ethic and sacrifice. >> this is not an easy job. not my job, the job that police officers do every day. mark: o'neill will remain on the job until next month when he leaves for a job in the private sector.

global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. caroline: thank you. romaine: let's get a check on some of the earnings going on out there. we can take a look at what we have sort of gotten here after hours. we can start with myriad genetics, down about 30%. this will be one of the biggest one-day moves for the stock. patiently, their full-year forecast, down from a range of 19.to shake shack, a huge mix for them. their full-year forecast, 1.5%. they had been 2%, also cutting their revenue forecast as well as other key metrics for the

fiscal full-year. caroline: uber off by almost 5%. it has improved in some metrics but disappointed in others. stock currently trading that much lower in after hours. adobe gaining after beating on the top and bottom line. now, let's talk about the crypto world. upcoin having a good month, a lot on china optimism, down again. thet 15% there since beginning of october. as more states and entities look at getting into this space, i want to bring in chief investment officer for coinshares, one of the largest

digital asset managers in the ince and also a rare female what is an extremely male-dominated industry. there was a study out today that everybody was blasting, they are destroying it. some tests -- some texas --demics are saying that almost everyone is very skeptical of this study. nonetheless, for people interested of this space, how confident can they be that they are in a transparent industry where they can trust the market movement. an ongoing concern around data availability and data accuracy. what is important to know is that this is not the first by thisublished academic. the same team released a report

on tether. i think, again, what we look back to is that most of the data used to analyze is on the lock chain. this is one of the benefits of having a public ledger, there is more data. i think one of the big challenges is that activity has started shifting from on chain to now off chain. many exchanges are now in the business of transactions. it is very difficult to interrogate the efficacy and accuracy of the data. caroline: what is needed in terms of the overall coming-of-age of crypto that will make it more transparent? is it the options market, more pay? needere an element that we

? >> i think the conversation you have heard repeatedly is that it is about transparency in trust. a lot of what investors are looking for is that transparency and trust. part of it has to do with the infrastructure that has historically been unprotected from the financial market. bitcoin has their own market. now, that process, with what happened in established -- established regulated markets is challenging. first digitally native asset we have ever seen so it does not fit cleanly into the reservations we have. we experienced this in getting an etf launch. we are constantly trying to create new product construction.

obviously, bitcoin creates new challenges. market infrastructure, changing narratives, but also changing rules and regulations. that raises the question of what is next. what is the success of the crypto space, and awareness, comes more regulation and competition. we have been hearing that with libra, a lot of central banks are saying, we will not just let private companies dominate the crypto space. how do you deal with that potential challenge ahead from players who presumably can't be beat? >> what i would say to that, which i said to congress, is that libra is not a cryptocurrency. i tend to delimit -- to delineate bitcoin, which truly is a cryptocurrency. caroline: stable coins.

>> stable coins pegged to the dollar, right. they serve fundamentally different this is. lot of room is a for them to coexist together. the commodity space became an asset class when a lot of people thought it would be. joe: a lot of are looking for further clarity, the ability to -- not only will we not allow for a bitcoin etf, we don't even want banks transferring money from bitcoin exchanges? and is thet enough, infrastructure robust enough that it could sustain that? 157 businesses in the industry, access to bank accounts. the challenges, here in the u.s.

in particular, there has been a lot of pressure from the regulatory side. serving u.s. customers, being sold to an asian conglomerate that will be taking over the operations of that exchange. i think we will start to see some of the markets start to shift to -- i think the challenge in the u.s. is enforcement.n we have seen who they go after and how, with the vast differences in settlement agreements and what they decided to take forward and what they have decided not to take forward. i think the u.s. will continue challenging markets for retail markets in particular. there are a lot of new funds

launching, a lot of investment products launching, so i continue to be optimistic that the investing space, the u.s. will continue to lead. caroline: we thank you. coming up, it is exactly 300 65 days until the u.s. presidential election. how the economy may impact the polls. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: one year to go until the election here in the u.s.. though we have a ways to go before we know who the democratic candidate will be, it is not too early to start thinking about the backdrop of the election. abigail: 360 five days until the next presidential election. it is promising to be a wild

year. let's take a look back to glean what could be ahead. first of all, the stock market. the first year out of president trump's election, there were pretty solid stock gains. in fact, the fifth best in history. people were happy with the president's performance perhaps about the -- perhaps around the tech plan and other factors. three years in, it is a little bit more average at least relative to sin obama, if you can call -- relative to president obama, if you can call 50% gains average. in white, president obama's elections, basically tied fifth where president trump is three years in. the stock market performance for president trump is pretty strong and may suggest that investors

will be happy with that and american voters will be happy with that. from a fundamental perspective, it is also fairly strong. we see most sectors making big gains, agriculture up about 10%, management up about 6%. of course, there is a very unusual factor that could come into play, and that is impeachment. this is a remarkable chart in the terminal. probabilityt is the that president trump completes his first term. back in july, only at 83%. in white, we are looking at the probability that he will be impeached. we now see the probability of being impeached the probability -- impeached outweighing the probability that he would finish his first term. they were two other presidents who were impeached. andrew johnson and will clinton, both impeached but the senate

found both equated -- the senate acuitedd both -- senate both. it will be interesting to see what the next year does bring for stocks. romaine: thanks for that. sticking with politics, let's turn to china. china reviewing locations within the u.s. where president jie zheng penn could meet with president trump -- president xi jinping could meet with president trump to sign a trade deal. >> i think we are in good shape. we are making good progress. there is no natural reason why it couldn't be. but whether it will slip a little bit, who knows? it is always possible. romaine: joining us, bloomberg's sarah mcgregor from l.a. with the latest. when we say they are trying to

find a location, what does that mean? are they just looking for a conference room somewhere? sarah: one might think in the final sprint to get this deal agreed to, that that would be the hardest part of this deal, but location has become an issue now that the apec summit has been canceled for chile. this has become a bit of a public relations exercise for trump. he is not getting everything he wants in this deal even if they were to agree to it. to get the message out there during u.s. hours on his turf is a pretty important aspect for him right now. maybenother thing that giving some cheer to markets, it is looking likely that phase i seems to be on track even if there are some technical issues as to where they will sign it. what about some trade tensions with europe?

sarah: we have these auto tariffs, decisions that need to be made. trump needs to decide this month whether he will move forward. right now, europe is pre-much the only region that does not have an agreement in place. we saw that wto case go forward, the u.s. hit tariffs in some of the european goods. really, that is sort of the one weak spot right now, there seems to be a lot of scope for the tensions to escalate. china, right now, the markets definitely and some of the expectations are perhaps that these are really the times that they can get a deal forward. caroline: what is the next meeting we should look out for? the next statement we should look out for? this event between the chinese premier meeting the u.s. delegation in asia, what is the next shoe to drop? sarah: even as all of this

happens, we have the december 15 tariffs coming up. those with that goods, apple goods like the iphone. a lot of people seem to think a deal as possible, not guaranteed but possible. will trump drop those tariffs in exchange for the deal? i think this is why the location is interesting, because, will the trumpet ministration -- trump administration exchange for having china signed this in the u.s., will that be a bargaining chip for dropping those tariffs? doesne: if xi jinping, travel to the u.s., this idea that it won't be an official state visit? sarah: we have heard reports that china may be willing to budge on that, that they don't necessarily need an official state visit.

china will also want to save face but if they can find a way to couch the whole thing in it being a good deal for them and not having to give up their sovereignty or take a hit to their national pride, it would be good for them. the number one thing they want is for tariffs to be rolled back. caroline: sarah mcgregor, we thank you for the breakdown. coming up, india calls it quits. why, after seven years, the company has decided against joining the china backed regional trade agreement. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: let's get you a quick update without lube or as performed -- with how uber has performed. they did come in with a more

improved forecast for the year. are promisingy they will break even and bring a profit as soon as 2021. india has decided against joining the china backed regional trade agreement. indian officials felt that the deal would not protect service workers or farmers. seven years and they drop this. than: seven years, more two dozen rounds of discussions, and there was a timeline, the deadline was supposed to be this weekend when they met in bangkok. other nations were pretty annoyed when officials kept bringing new conditions and finally india saying they will not join. concernsid, they had over service workers. prime minister modi really

trying to protect his core constituents. he was not happy with the fact that they would get swift access into other countries and not happy about the fact that they have a $55 billion deficit with china last year and that would continue to grow more with r cep. romaine: from india to australia. a rate decision overnight. shery: another rate decision from the rba. we have seen the rba cut rates since june. 0.75% low. a record romaine: they have got some wiggle room, right? shery: in this day and age, a lot of leeway. they don't want to see all that ammunition go. they have seen the inflation

rate rises little bit and employment rate lower. the mandates seem to be working out for them. you are getting close to the reversal rate where you do more harm to the economy than good. you can see the cash rate, the inverted line, the line in yellow, that is at our record low. business and consumer confidence starting to fall since june. record lows, why do you need more cuts? romaine: australia, this is a come -- this is a country everyone sort of fawns over. joe: like three decades without a recession. romaine: have you for about the big fight over honey? between australia and new zealand.

as a loyal watcher of daybreak australia, i want a segment on this. shery: i love manuka honey. if you love australian news, the melbourne cup this week. romaine: rugby? shery: yes. [laughter] joe: i like the segment where romaine just gives segment requests. onry: why don't you join us " daybreak: asia?" romaine: a spoon, that is all i need. caroline: romaine taking commodities focus to a whole new level. for more on her stories, don't miss daybreak australia and daybreak asia. the u.k. parliament tomorrow will dissolve by days end ahead of next month's election. joe: i will be looking at ism

nonmanufacturing out tomorrow. has releasedton its first quarter report. investors focusing on growth. "bloomberg technology" is next in the u.s. joe: this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ taylor: i'm taylor riggs in san francisco, and for emily chang, and this is "bloomberg technology." bloomberg disappoints. third quarter -- uber discipline. third quarter estimates missed. we break down the numbers. over an's ceo out inappropriate relationship.