feeling that the u.s. and global economy has been taking over softbank group set to report into a recession. results on wednesday. uber and we work, of course, the a reversal ofe brightest stars, now among its the trade that has really been worst performers. in place all year long. this is bloomberg. ♪ caroline: there we have it. theit new record highs for dow jones and nasdaq. joe: one of the -- romaine: when you look at some of the individual movers, these are not the barnburner companies. the 18%mour today after selloff. uber though. 28.01. 3% on thevolumes up nasdaq. range bound. let's dive deeper into the action. i am looking at shares of square. they are falling less than 4%

after they wondering if the cost of their spending is paying off. there have her spending -- their heavy spending is failing to buy a lot of that loyalty. the cost for each download has more than doubled. compare that to venmo, which has a fairly highly engaged customer base. what that means, it is dragging down all the other things, visa, mastercard, american express for example. tencentrship over saying they are allowing visa cardholders to use their visa romaine: time now for a look at card in china. what stories are trending across instead of having to rely on the bloomberg universe. cash, they can use their visa terminal users are reading about the new mcdonald's ceo, who card. doesn't hold a single share in i am taking a look at the restaurant chain. in may, he sold the entire stake shake shack shares, which are he had accumulated, almost floating today after an earnings

11,000 shares. miss. 27,900 exercised about the third quarter missed expectations for store sales. options and liquidated that the company cited a transition holding. grubhub as its sole delivery 4.4transaction netted him partner as what contributed to billion -- $4.4 million before the drop. shake shack executives cautioned taxes. the company that was once the up that more volatility is ahead enemy of america's shale gas thanks to the grubhub transition but the company does expect to fortune, and now there is a warning that they may not be see financial benefits in the able to outlast prices. coming quarter. wall street cosigned the they posted a wider than sentiment saying its full-year expected loss for the quarter. sales forecast implies a fourth-quarter decline and it is aboutmarket value expects a grubhub transition the $2.6 billion. tictoc is reporting that last into the year 2020. microsoft japan experimented with a four-day workweek last august and the company's results >> these are 10-year note have been staggering. anding electricity by 23% treasury futures, actually trading in the direction of bonds. we see a decline, down three decreasing pages printed. japan is notorious for crumpton with days in a row, 1%. overworking employees. prime minister abe is looking to the move since early october suggesting that the risk on move bloomberg first word news. fix that because of the long today, house committees hours and the company' -- the

once again. investigating president trump released more transcripts from a we put it together with country's aging population. closed-door testimony. u.s. ambassador to the eu gordon caroline: let's talk jamaica. positioning, it is kind of interesting. it had a banner 20 18 the in 2017, you see that the net sondland testified for a promise longs were very strong. to investigate -- testified that the president pressured ukraine world's best performing stock exchange. in 2018, the shorts trying to play to the fact that bonds were the island's main index for a promise to investigate joe outperformed everyone. biden for a white house meeting. selling off. and there is the huge risk off. kurt volker defended biden's the is interesting, during efforts to pressure ukraine to this year, the jamaica stock exchanges up 30% year-to-date. recent selloff, some of these short that have been coming out fire a prosecutor, saying he was this is as the imf is saying the over the past couple of weeks missing the three day selloff we executing u.s. policy at the time. country's economy is looking are seeing at least right now. mexico says president lopez better than ever before. it is 50 years old, you have romaine: thanks. still with us at the desk, this killer few years. what is getting in so right? michael, chairman and ceo of the with thereally to do obrador has called president market field asset management, trump. and bloomberg's sarah ponczek. andomy, that we are stable, agole were killed who long let's start with bonds selloff. broke away from the church of where a long way from the people are optimistic about three-plus percent at the jamaica. jesus christ of the latter-day business people, consumers, we beginning of the year. saints and some have ties in utah. are optimistic about what is mitt romney says that the going on in your makeup. along way from where we were couple of months ago. attacks were probably closely

is this prolonged selloffs or do associated with the business of years, but wee of you think rates will settle the cartels rather than a targeted attack on the religious also have been doing, somewhere in the range of where encouraging jamaican companies we are now? community. to do better in terms of romney's own father was born in corporate governance, training, a similar but different group in >> i think they will move higher. etc.. a target.o is northern mexico. we have been putting in the hard >> the facts continue to get work for the companies to perform well and it is paying the 200 day moving average is a little bit higher. clarified. obviously, it is a great tragedy dividends. joe: i just looked, there is no i think the short end of the when any citizens, mexican or curve will settle around 175. american, in this case american jamaica etf. citizens, brutally murdered. i wonder if there is interest in the end, it will listen to it is moms, children. the fed and understand that the from outside jamaica to be able this is really unthinkable. mark: earlier today, president to more easily invest in the fed will probably not move again. joe: if you had gone back to country, and i wonder if that trump tweeted an offer to help may be in the works. mid-summer and told people that againstwage war" uber would be cut like 50%, we >> there was one just launched about two or three months ago. work would not get out the door, mexican cartels suspected of it is not directly called etf committing the killings. obrador said,z how shocked would people be but it does the same thing. that this was a market at "the worst thing you can have is all-time highs? respect toork and >> i think people would be war." the leader of britain's fairly shocked. the regulations. different levels of risk. --osition party an promised with we work and uber, you were we are moving in that direction. think two newally talking about extreme risk. to brexitised an end

up to this point, a sense of indices. risk aversion. you look at the sector in the last six months, the wrangling of his party wins. jeremy corbyn said he needed six financial index and also the composition, although we have seen a change to the cyclicality months. manufacturing and distribution he told party supporters that if lately, and a lot of it was index, all of that, built off movements on defensive labor wins, it would negotiate a amplification of doing more areas of the market there was a new brexit divorce deal that etf's. keeps close relations with romaine: what sort of interest britain and the european union, are you seeing from foreigners sense of caution. now, you are really seeing this with regards to investing? divergence. then hold a national referendum >> it is growing very rapidly, people are feeling a little bit more confident in the public about whether to leave on those terms will remain in the bl which is why we are here in new markets. york and we were just in canada. oc. the extremely risky ipo's just continue. it is time toid resultsre seeing the to be secular stories, not cyclical stories. call out prime minister johnson over his handling of brexit. but more so, what is happening is corbyn: boris johnson is that, when you look at how even in technology, you have seen this divergent trying to hijack brexit to sell the companies themselves are performing, they are performing post-september where software out our national health service well. has badly lagged the cyclical and the working people of this there is a dividend payout, the country. he is trying to cash in on the portion of technology. i actually think the votes of millions who voted to stock price appreciation. leave the eu by buying political venture-capital cycle is very overall, we are doing pretty good. the stock exchange is really a power for himself, then sell barometer. caroline: i am just digging into important in terms of its cultural shift back to general them out with another dose of cyclicality. caroline: will they continue if austerity in the future.

that is all that johnson offers. the out performers. mark: in an open letter to the they are not showing a direct 410% in the last 12 line of profitability? prime minister yesterday, corbin >> very clearly, it is now two months. the exchange itself is up 180%. urged him to come clean and already clear path to explain what your plan really profitability as opposed to a is. iran will begin injecting radio jamaica, caribbean cement. clear path toward parabolic what sectors really outperform? growth. joe: just to expand on this, uranium gas into more than 1000 sector, theacturing the of the -- part of centrifuges. . reason the cyclical stories were iran's 2015 nuclear deal, banking and finance are doing well. en vogue while growth is so those sectors are doing well. these machines are supposed to what we also have now in terms spend without gas injection. mild, you can't get it without of the junior market, all second some secular growth story. president rouhani says the machine at the nuclear facility sustained?n this be will be injected with uranium actually -- all how long can we see sort of this gas as of wednesday. new flavor, this new tilt? there was no immediate comment from the international atomic sectors are actually coming into united nations nuclear be listed on the exchange. romaine: when we look at the >> for a a while. you had a tilt like this in companies popping up on the screen, it is a pretty watchdog. global news 24 hours a day on place post-brexit into the air and at tictoc on twitter, diversified mix. powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over one of the knocks on the economy beginning of 2018. 120 countries. certainly, through the end of mark crumpton. in the caribbean and that part the year, through the end of the of the world is the lack of diversification. i wonder, what is sort of the first quarter, and probably at this is bloomberg. joe: goldman sachs was stung by

some point something new thread that got you to this point? happens. andes in uber and wework, 18 month movean >> what we did, in terms of companies, we did not cherry there is a message in there for pick. in the opposite direction. it will take time for this one the stock exchange really went investors in growth stocks. profit adders. to run out of gas. romaine: keep in mind the speaking to bloomberg about out. backdrop of the cyclicality it set up the order takers. discussion. unicorn ipo companies going public and balancing growth and we are getting earnings and it out toally went is kind of a mixed bag. profitability. aramcore involved in the you are still getting companies companies and we said, you have a good company, why not look to coming across the wire that ipo but i will not comment on continue to disappoint, not just something that is an active equity capital? quarterly earnings but forward transaction like that. we have had a leading role in the problem here, the interest guidance as well is that going to be enough to sort of push the the ipo business around the rate was very high. market higher, or is it still world for the last 30, 40 years. what that did was stagnate any generally speaking, we are dependent on the fed, are we companies. still dependent on some opportunity ton fortunate to be in a position to resolution out of the white help our clients. house in terms of trade? it seems difficult to value this one. it seems difficult to value ipos say -- many companies were >> the fed has said that they are on pause. afraid of doing that because one in general. there was a time when people of the things they feel many if you look at all of next year were talking about wework as a times, because many of them are -- if you look at the pricing, small and medium-sized, they we have seen, just yesterday, $60 billion, $65 billion company. think, if they do that, they why is it so hard to put a value will lose the company. when it comes to pricing, we have seen next year still on companies this close to going pricing in a 25 basis point cut. our message had to be on target

private? to say, no, this is a regulation >> when the rubber hits the that has to be in the hands of road, it is what are investors after the nonmanufacturing ism shareholders. numbers this morning, that has is what are investors been pushed out to 2021. we went out and spoke with idbanies, we also engaged the market is believing we will not see a rate cut this year. willing to pay for a company when they have the transparency, in terms of putting on a program when it comes to earnings, if we the real financial information that has been vetted and presented in an appropriate way. continue to see an earnings when you have that, the market will speak. season like the one we do now, example,ork as an that sells access to finance, to yes we have seen q4 numbers come equity capital. down, 2020 numbers come down. we went out, looked at these there is a lot of hype around that. when they are able to provide companies, actually worked with feedback and work with an them. but the markets have held up. more order making against underwriting group, it was pretty clear where the company ordertaking. romaine: this is a very -- if you do believe we would go public. >> this group of companies, the interesting story. have had ipot our thanks to marlene problems or if not performed will get 9% growth, and well post-ipo, like uber mru street-forrest, the managing director of jamaica stock investors said even if you do get the historical trend, that concerned we are seeing exchange. -- likeons of the.com let's look at that, the big would take you down to 5% or so. online dating company. then the market should be ok uber, are you concerned we are they have dozens of dating apps. with that. caroline: if we don't get a caroline: tender. romaine: your favorite, seeing reflections of the dotcom era? trade, how much will the -- a caroline. david: these are real companies.

trade deal, how much will the they missed on a number of we can debate the valuations but markets not be ok with that? estimates and the earnings period. they are certainly real >> it depends of we get a brexit companies. during that time in the dotcom also sort of suffering as a result. or not, because that is another match fromast month, thing out there. at thego back and look bubble, there were companies that were in a different state the ftc for allegedly deceiving getting two markets. first week of september, china the monetary policy that has been rampant around the world and the u.s. were still fighting consumers. this is bloomberg. and you had boris johnson with has basically forced people out ♪ his slightly crazy idea to on the risk curve. one of the things they have been prorogue parliament. it was the first idea the market chasing his growth. i think there has been a got that frexit was heading sentiment that if you can hook toward a resolution. your wagon to a company that has i came to believe over the a lot of growth and is focused course of the last year that for on growth, then something good non-u.s. markets, brexit might will come from that. -- that nothing was incentivized companies to spend it very aggressively to going to get better. drive topline growth without understanding the consequence of i think brexit mattered more. profitability. i think the market here is speaking and telling people, withey go back to playing let's rein that in a little bit. it is important for people to tariffs, we are not in a good grow but there has to be a clear place. joe: speaking of europe,

and articulated path to obviously we have the transition profitability and earnings. i am a big believer that, over time, a company can only be in the ecb. worth the discounted future value of its earnings. policy, is that a big it is important that you have a business model ultimately that can generate profitability. part of the mix or as they more i think there is a little more market discipline and i think -- or is there more that they that is healthy for markets. can do with the tools they have caroline: of course, when we now? >> i am not sure it is talk about the ipo scenario, necessary. what happened with wework, the i think it would be icing on the cake. failed ipo is likely to weigh on is expanding its balance sheet. -- softbank obviously has vision than they were 18 fund, it is hoping to have months ago. still have further to go. vision fund 2. the ecb is sort of in the middle doing something. it has made big bets and not all it is better than nothing. are paying off. fiscal policy would help but i am not sure it is necessary. >> bernstein expects that uber might have a $3.5 billion hit. caroline: thank you. that is it for "the closing caroline: in terms of the bell." valuation they have locked in? "what'd you miss?" is up next.

>> yes. last quarter, the vision fund group results. we will wait to see the numbers. helped prop up profit. this is bloomberg. ♪ this quarter, we might see the opposite with uber, we work, then the vision fund itself as a number of other investments here. the entire strategy and their ability to raise money from vision fund 2. joe: there is the vision fund, bankchina's central then it also makes investments directly that are not in the reducing the cost of one year vision fund. funding, the first time it has done so since 2016. there is also like a telecom in there, right? sonali: they have a japanese the market nervous about tightening liquidity. for more, let's bring it shery mobile arm that is supposed to add to profits. ahn. even with that said, the vision ebitis about 30% of their obviously, part of this story, seven describe this. da at times. the write-downs really don't help them in any given quarter. they will de-consolidate sprint. shery: cautious. sprint will not show up as it wasn't a benchmark rate cut. clearly in the profit in this we have not seen since the last coming report. romaine: the vision fund, they

obviously have a few dogs and huge number of stimulus a years back. you mentioned the optimism over their portfolio right now. they have some winners though trade. two. one example, 40-something the gdb charts on the bloomberg percent, why aren't you talking showing that last week we saw about them? they are up 10-x. yields rise as much as they have since made. sonali: think about how much 3.25%, yieldsate money they poured into wework. fell again. romaine: i guess the big question why didn't the pboc cut for them, that is a strategic issue. you can raise the money for the main benchmark? business fund two. shery: pork prices. that is why people aren't sending thee fever talking about the winners here. caroline: i do feel that vcs are pork prices higher. meant to make bad bets. i am waiting for next year for that line in red, core cpi. arm holdings to go public again. and uber are your justg cpi could reach 4% this month. that really gives them limited winners -- caroline: massive in india. on: i want to get your take space to carry out. my favorite story of the day.

cautious given that robin hood, the free stock trading app that young people there are other parts of the economy where you don't want to like, there was a glitch and see bubbles like we saw in 2015. people got literally infinite , thisne: some are saying leverage. is that bad? sonali: simply, yes. cut plays into the fact that actually china does not want a once you are working on borrowed stronger currency. money, these are personal hedge funds. romaine: didn't it start with shery: the guy who posted that youtube 6.8, the strongest we video where he lost $50,000? have seen it since august. from bloomberg what is robin hood doing? sonali: they are working on it theould see a move in world headquarters in new york, i am caroline hyde. here's a snapshot of how we on a number of isolated customers. long-term rate, the de facto if you are looking to get banking charters, this is not managed to clinch some new rate at the 20th of the month. caroline: for more on these records in certain benchmarks. the greatest situation in the world. happenedntially what enthusiasm around equities. stories, don't "daybreak: asia u.s. stocks close around record -- caroline: someone found a highs. bonds are going out of fashion. -- don't miss "daybreak: asia." loophole. sealing a deal on trade. joe: they found a loophole where china insists that president romaine: "bloomberg technology" you are able to like sell trump must give up tariffs. is next in the u.s.

covered calls, but they counted the two sides maybe i and alaska joe: this is bloomberg. the sale as part of your capital ♪ or iowa. and then you are able to lever softbank. that further. the company profits plunge with what you sell should not be leverage bull capital. a write-down on division fund and asset values. there was someone on reddit there is still time for the claimed that with a $4000 vision fund to come clean. funding, they had a $1 million selloff acrosse position. slightly they seem global bond markets deepening. going afoul. that trick,ou have better-than-expected data in the u.s. services sector. investor appetite for safe haven why would you put it on reddit? assets. joe: where else would you put here to discuss, katie it, that's the real question? groenefeld. ira jersey, us, coming up next, we will talk about the secret sauce of chief interest rate strategist for bloomberg intelligence. jamaica's stocks. how big is this move? what keeps pushing the island's put it in perspective. stock exchange up? obviously, we had that extraordinary move in august, this is bloomberg. ♪ then it sort of faded, we continued to see pressure.

quantify the selloff we have seen. upie: we have 10 year yields eight basis points on the day, which is a big move but it is not 2015 levels. it is really just the global nature of this move that really has investors rattled. it also, at least to me, is surprising you are seeing this big selloff and not much of a response in the stock market. when i see the 10 year yield up eight basis points, i expect to see some reaction in the stocks. part of that is a supply story. the u.s. is set to auction off 10 year and 30 year bonds in the days ahead. those midmonth auctions tend to move the curve around more than those end of month sales. romaine: barclays track long-term treasuries. still setting up for -- one of the best years in 2011 or 2008,

a time when the stock market was setting up for its best year in quite some time. ira, chime in. a lot of people talking to me about bulls flattening, bears deepening, things i don't really understand. what is the trade that people are going for? >> i would like to focus a little bit on what you were talking about with the long end treasuries rally. you have seen the long-term yields go from 3% at the beginning of the year down below 2%. if you remember, in 2016, after president trump got elected, you ended up seeing a pretty substantial selloff in the treasury market, which kind of wiped out a lot of people's years in the bond market. i think we got overextended. in the bond market, people were pessimistic and is soon as you

saw any kind of stabilization, you look back more toward fair value. our fair value estimate is around 2.1%. 10 year yield, two standard deviations below that in terms of our model. now we are more within the fair value range. actual, if you do get an trade deal, you can well up above 2%. caroline: katie, you were saying how prices are not locking onto stocks. ♪ this is like the march of the santa rally already upon us. which is terrifying to think. i'm taylor riggs in san do you think the timing of this at play, in terms of auctions, francisco, in for emily chang, but what about the seasonality of the -- of what we are seeing? and this is "bloomberg technology." record low. uber stock sinks tuesday. katie: i have been talking to we have details. investors about the fact that we plus, what is going on for its are getting to year end. biggest investor, softbank, duration has been the trade of

which is poised to post the year in fixed incomes. earnings? plus, peloton 70% has actually returned year-to-date, which is pretty incredible for fixed income. i was talking to morgan stanley earlier today and they have been reducing durations. some of the selloff might not be that people are suddenly bright on the u.s. economic outlook. they are really just trying to lock in gains. it is hard to look your portfolio right now and think it might disappear. joe: in the wake of that fed decision, the first move we saw was flat. since reeses deepened. what is the message week -- pened.thestee message we heard from powell, no hikes or cuts any time soon most likely? >> that has been the year. when the fed was cutting, i think the market was worried

about whether we get toward a get toward a zero bound and the fed would start there. in doing that, that meant that the market needed to flatten. now that you are seeing the market selloff and that off the table. romaine: our thanks to ira jer sey and katie greifeld. let's get a quick check on some earnings that have been crossing the wire. on a lottchers, a miss of their key metrics. you can see they are down about 15, 16% at one point. we also got earnings for inch.com, down about 14% after-hours trading, again missing on a lot of key metrics. we also have some other earnings out for microchip technology. bigid get earnings from the

kidney dialysis company, a bright spot among a lot of the large-cap names. up about 4.6%. weight watchers romaine:, a sizable move. they keep missing. caroline: the rebrand. romaine: meanwhile, there is a line around the block for the popeye's chicken sandwich. caroline: coming up, let's talk bankers. warren tove from combat wall street access. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: wall street has its eye

on elizabeth warren. hopeful's populist message to rein in excess and combat corruption -- according to our next guest, fears of warren driving the stock market into the ground are a bit misplaced and it is really private equity who has the most to lose. a new york times columnist joins us now. so, private equity should be quaking in their boots? why? that,ren has already said in a previous proposal in july that she would come after private equity, limit their ability to collect fees, hold their feet to the fire in terms of the investments they make. it seems to be that those are credible threats if she were to become president. she would have the power to at least try to go after those proposals. those are concrete examples where private equity has to fear. she what do you think

possibly could do? some of the pushback of the elizabeth warren doom talk is that even if she wins, the health care plan, very longshot to get in because of the challenges of getting senate approval. these are huge hauls. is there anything specific in your view that she could do that would really harm the current business model of private equity? >> i think that is the right question. here is where i think the wildcard is. private equity, there is so much money going in that the competition is stiff, the valuations are high, and that causes private equity to go further afield, looking for deals. i think americans are increasingly coming into contact the private equity and negative impact from failed deals. if that were to continue, i think you might have a uproar

provide theht impetus for a president warren to reach across the aisle and get this passed. short of that, you would have resistance from the industry but the question is how much damage would be done and whether that would cause americans to say, we need something like this. caroline: it is interesting on the day that bloomberg breaks the scoop that walgreens is looking at what will be the largest ever leveraged buyout, that this is something that could take the wind out of it sales. would it just be sentiment that would change and the money flows, or what sort of exact details do we have in terms of policymaking? >> i think there are two sides. if warren got her way, it would significantly increase the liability for private equity

firms. it will put them on the hook for debt they put on these companies, obligations. it would also limit their ability to allow dividends and collect certain fees. it would hurt the liability but also hurt their ability to make money from the activity. i think that would fundamentally transform the industry and limit the flows we are seeing currently to private equity. caroline: always great getting your take. now i quick check on the latest business flash headlines. the new ceo of mcdonald's looking for 4% growth in u.s. comparable sales next year. also expecting customer traffic to be flat. that is according to a video made from store operators. chesapeake energy is warning that it may not be able to continue as concern is plummeting.

they say natural gas and oil prices may hinder its ability over the next year. downgraded charles schwab to the equivalent of hold. coming up, investor giant