the u.s. will roll that tariffs. how much perfection is priced in? safe haven carnage. suffer bigtrades losses as investors price out fed cuts. and the economics of the south. atlanta fed president raphael bostic joins us to talk wages and inequality. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this friday, november 8. i'm alix steel. just a quick check here. in the markets, we are seeing a little bit of a rally. paring gains from yesterday. just a pause in the reversal we have seen the last couple of days. time now for the global exchange, where we bring you today's market moving news from all around the world, from hong kong to brussels, london and new york. we want to kick off with latest in china. china's trade data had some

bright spots. exports declined less than domestic but weak demand continues to bite. joining us from hong kong is in karenrrent -- is in the -- is enda curran. is pickingps demand up, and might put a floor on the economy into year end. there was a weaker import, and that underlines that the domestic demand is still weak. we know that new orders of the official manufacturing pmi remain weak as well come us adjusting that bottoming out still has a little bit to go before we can fully call it stabilization in china's economy. the trade numbers were ok. there were certainly some optimism, but the big picture remains whether the government can push ahead and reach this phase i agreement they've been talking about. alix: speaking of, the

conversation has been to digitally that the phase i deal will happen in a rollback. the ministry of commerce spokesman in china saying that there have been serious discussions, and agreed to remove the tariffs in phases as progress is made on the agreement. what is the real conversation on the ground? enda: clearly this was a redline for china. they've been demanding that they wanted tariffs rolled back on goods. all indications are that both sides do seem to be heading for some common ground on this. we had the white house suggesting overnight they agree with the principle of rolling back tariffs. the big question is when they will agree that these tariffs should be rolled back or removed. we are not yet at the point where a final deal has been agreed, so we don't know the final details. it will be crucial to see where the two sides can meet in the middle and at which point they can roll back tariffs on each other's goods. that is a critical detail that needs to be ironed out. alix: thank you so much for

joining us. we now want to head to brussels, where euro area finance ministers are meeting to discuss the banking union, economic outlook, and the ecb board. maria tadeo joins us. a lot of topics on the table. what so far has been the biggest take away? there's many calls right now in europe to get germany to get spending. the european commission cut its growth forecast. they see the country in a technical recession. we are seeing more european space to that have spend or need to grow their economy should do it now, but obviously a clear reference to germany. when you speak to the german finance minister, he is sticking to the script. he says there is no need to deploy major funds now because germany does believe the fundamentals remain strong. they have a very strong labor market, and they point out

external factors. they say our model is not flawed, and we have not become too dependent on china. this is all to do with trade tensions. the minute they go away, we will see germany move back from negative headlines and pickup growth. the export data that came out for september does back his point to a certain extent. we saw exports pickup for the month of september. the bigger question now, but the europeans are really keeping an eye on, is whether president trump is going ahead or not with those tariffs at the end of the month on european carmakers. that would really hit germany. the last we heard from jean-claude juncker, head of the european commission, is that he believes trump will not enact those tariffs on european cars. alix: thank you. now we want to turn to disney. shares rising in premarket after orderly profits top estimates. they've also agreed to put their new streaming service on amazon devices, ensuring more access to online viewers at next week's

launch. >> we are pleased to announce additional distribution partnerships with amazon fire, samsung, and lg. disney+ will also be available in a bundle with espn+ and $12.99 ated hulu for month. alix: what were some of your take away from the quarter, the good and the bad? reporter: this is company firing on all cylinders. even the broadcast unit. weirdly, we are looking at a really strong final period of the year as they've got "frozen coming out. wars" disney+ lunches next week in the u.s. we also heard that the service will come to europe 31 march

next year. an," the star wars spinoff, has really got people excited. the question is the impact this will have on netflix. most analysts think there is enough room for both of these platforms to grow over the next three to five years, but i think 20/20 is going to be a really interesting year to see how much impact not just disney+, but yes pin -- but espn+ and the hulu services have. it is going to be a really disruptive time next year for netflix in the streaming market. alix: thank you very much. we want to stay in london because alibaba is moving ahead with plans to raise as much is $15 billion in a hong kong shares sale ahead of the company's most import sales event of the year, singles' day. joining me is alex webb. what was your take on a

potential listing in hong kong despite the recent protests in the weaker global economy? alex: there really is some relief for hong kong. this is a sale which has been in the works for a long time. the initial target was it would happen over the summer, and reporting from sources was they are targeting a $15 billion listing in hong kong to raise more capital. that would represent the biggest listing of the year so far, before we know what happens with saudi aramco, and the exact timing of that. the timing of the news the listing itself comes just ahead of singles' day, november 11. this is an informal holiday celebrating singledom in china, which has been sort of co-opted over the past decade by alibaba to replicate the effect of black friday in the u.s., defined a peak event where you can sell a huge amount of merchandise and retail products online.

about $30 billion gross revenue last year. the question is, with china's slowing growth, whether that pace can be maintained this year. either way, it provides a lot of heat for alibaba as it moves toward that listing. alix: finally, in the u.s., risk assets are really losing their luster. the 10 year treasury yield spiked nine basis points yesterday, a huge move. joining me on the phone for more is ira jersey of bloomberg intelligence. are we oversold in the treasury market? ira: very short term, perhaps, when you look at the technical indicators. but we have fair value at about two point 1%, so there is the likelihood could see a bit more of a backup to over 2%. i still think there is this underlying fear that the economy is still fragile, so at some point you will probably see some buying and probably making a new

range. when you think about what's happened to the treasury market this year, you had very distinct ranges for two or three months, and then big moves into some kind of new range. alix: when it comes to the curve , where is the path of least resistance? next 0.5%ast for the or so on 10 year yields, directional with rates. as we move higher in 10 year treasury yields, you will likely see the curve steepen. you will wind up getting to the 30, 35 area may be on the two-year tenure -- on the two-year-10 year. i think we will probably cap there in terms of yields. if we do, you will wind up seeing a little more of a flattening trade as yields go up. alix: really appreciate it. ira jersey of bloomberg intelligence. something else i am watching every day is the potential saudi aramco ipo. crown prince mohammed bin salman is said to have lowered his

valuation target for aramco, but some of the world's biggest investors say that is not actually enough. the prince reportedly now is willing to accept a $1.7 trillion valuation, down from $2 trillion. some believe it is worth less. part of the issue, if we take a look at where yields are, it is hard to entice investors with very big yields. point $6 trillion valuation, saudi remco would still just beat that redline of 4.7%. we are now hearing rumors it will go up to maybe $80 billion a year or $100 billion a year plus. program, muchhis more of your morning trade and analysis of the markets in today's first take. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time now for bloomberg first take. joining me from our in-house team of wall street insiders .xperts, damian sassower are you credit or equity? credit? of the cignarella bloomberg audio squawk. also joining us is sarah hunt, alpine woods capital investors portfolio manager. kudlow basically says if everything works, we are going back to tariffs. we had that huge move yesterday in equities and bonds area events, the trade for you this morning -- and bonds. vents, the trade for you this morning? vincent: maybe there's a trade deal, maybe there isn't a trade deal.

is real deal on the street the end of the trade war, not the trade deal. we don't care what the deal is. i don't care if it's $18 billion of agriculture. i don't care what it is. take the uncertainty off the table. we could go into 2020 and a bit of a calm. capex spending comes back, the economy gets lifted. this is what trump needs to rally his base to put him in a position to it least hope to win the election. i think treasuries are definitely going to go to 2%. we got a sentiment indicator out at 10:00. sarah: i have to say i agree. people just want it over with. no matter what the phase is, as long as we get rid of some of , it isariffs eventually going to be better. what i am worried about his last summer, where everybody was ready for a signed deal and it completely fell apart. i think it is more important to get something done because you

are running into an election year whereas this summer, you weren't. certainly the market is pricing in the fact that we are on our way to solving this problem, and once it gets solved, you can start talking about other things. damian: as much as there are carafate -- as much terra phases as phases of the moon -- there are as much tariff phases as phases of the moon. [laughter] that?: do you like what really speaks to me is e-sports to the southeast that she's exports to the southeast asian region -- is exports to the southeast asian region picking up. to the em index yesterday. you've got some other ring shoots coming up. pmi data has been relatively resilient across the whole of em

. things are looking a little rosier this morning. i think that while we may see 2% in 10 years, at 1.90% it is getting kind of interesting. but you move yesterday alone $17 trillion in negative debt to 12 point $5 trillion in essentially a week. there's a great deal of momentum behind this. i wouldn't stand in the way of it. i think it goes to 2.25% at the end of the day if this followthrough. what we are looking at right now if you think about it is very interesting. you talk about russia influencing election. man int powerful the world right now is hesident xi because controls the most powerful man in the world, president trump. he's doing this regional economic comprehensive partnership in southeast asia, which is going to capture 1/3 of the global gdp for china

exports. these making great strides. he's in a very strong position, and the united states, navarro notwithstanding, they need to do this deal. whatever it is, i think it is going to get done because they don't have a choice. damian: we saw moody's downgrain their outlook overnight. a littled s&p are behind the eight ball, but it is interesting if you look at the response. the want is up for ash the yuan -- the yuan is up through seven. vincent: there's the geopolitical situation, so that comes into play as well. alix: you heard them debate the fx and rate point, but if you come to the market today, the

question for me is are we priced for perfection now, or is there more upside to go? do we have the vulnerability now have a tweet? where is president trump? i haven't seen his deal saying we've got a deal done. vincent: because we don't. sarah: the pendulum always swings a little too far. can you go further up? sure. the question is what happens afterward. we are partially negative. when you look at where the market is, the multiple is are just expanding again is everyone is thinking we are getting these terrible risks author table. so what happens the next 12 to 24 months? just because you take some of these risks off the table, you haven't priced that in to what can be earned in this. you're looking at the fed cutting rates when the market is making new highs.

the enthusiasm in the equity markets is largely because we just had $17 trillion worth of negative yielding debt, and now we are moving up further, but fixed income is not a robust place to be. to the are vulnerable fact that once you get through .ll of this do they start to back off a little bit? does the fed say maybe things are good enough that we don't have to keep going, and then those questions start to become a what is going to drive you to the next leg? alix: we have french 10 year yields over zero. that's huge. .05%, we made it. sarah: mind blowing. alix: but what was kind of overlooked ivy china stuff, jean-claude juncker giving an interview in europe said that there will not be any automobile tariffs. he won't do it. you are talking to a fully informed man. [laughter] alix: first of all, that's

probably the best sentence i ever heard. is the strong arm angle. it is a material difference. vincent: i think juncker is lest informed that he really believed. alix: he's a fully informed man. [laughter] vincent: he's not really taken seriously on the street, to be honest, sorry to say. he's probably a lovely guy, but he's not in a position of power. he's in a position of being potentially informed, but he doesn't make any decisions. i think he's kind of going out on a limb here. if there is a problem with this deal with xi, whatever way it breaks down with china, i think trump is going to need a diversion, and the easiest is to go after europe. the best thing that could happen for germany is that this deal gets done with china. otherwise, for nothing less than a distraction, i think the president will turn to europe. damian: the dollar has

appreciated relative to most of the g10 crosses, but relative to senate -- look at the the sentiment indicators, my goodness, we are two to three standard deviations below the whole of the em complex. yields toigh nominal try to take on some of that carry, but do it on a hedge basis. your kind of basically taking more risk there. look at the tangential evidence of growth positioning and long equity funds coming up, people are punting it to the end of the year. need to see these benchmarks, which are all up double to its. you're going to see a little more of that. we have risks coming at the end of the year with the fed plummeting -- with the fed

plumbing. sarah: we also just saw a switch. that was pretty fast, and you're talking about changes in data .hat weren't so huge i think there's a lot of very short-term big swings. just look at interest rates. we don't see interest rates move that fast, generally. that was a huge sentiment shift. there's a number of events we cannot plan for. alix: enough said, and we will leave it there. moves, whatever. [laughter] alix: sarah hunt of alpine woods, you're sticking with me. a reminder, all the charts we use and more throughout the

program, no to gtv on your terminal. browse the features, check it out. this is bloomberg ♪ -- this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak." it will be hong kong's biggest first timeshare offering since 2010. to $15 hopes to raise up billion in a-shares sale in the city. next week carol -- next week there will be a listing in hong kong. no deal is too big for blackstone's real estate investors. since june, blackstone has done two deals worth almost when he $5 billion. -- cohead of real estate almost $25 billion. he cohead of real estate telling berg what she looks for -- telling bloomberg what she looks for. >> we look at what can drive performance, the quality of the transaction is not measured or limited by size.

viviana: blackstone's play on e-commerce has shifted to smaller spaces in cities, what customers such as amazon want. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. robin am watching, too, hood markets getting some unwanted scrutiny in washington. it seems some of its customers took advantage of a flaw in the system that allows them to make highly leveraged trades without putting down enough cash to back the transaction, like putting down $4000 to get about $1 million. that triggered losses of less than $100,000 and some questions from regulators. coming up, much more about china data, as well as the regional trade and what it means for a trade deal with the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." crazy four days in the market. s&p futures are up, pretty much flat, though. we had a nice risk on rally, a

rotation into value, rotation into cyclicals, and now taking a little bit of a pause. even european automakers going nowhere even though juncker said the u.s. won't put on trade tariffs. other asset classes a similar story. year,is points in the 10 1.94%. let's go to china now, because that is really also helping the lake markets. data paints a somewhat better picture. , exportsok at exports declined less than expected in october amid rising optimism a trade deal with the u.s. could happen. the picture is getting a bit .righter top negotiators had serious constructive discussions and agreed to remove additional tariffs in phases as progress is made on the agreement. joining me now is alex wolf, jp

morgan head of investment strategy for asia, and still with me as sarah hunt of alpine woods capital investors. which is it? do we get a trade deal and things are going to be ok, or is there still regional weakness in asia? alex: there is definitely still regional weakness. it looks like global external demand might be troughing, might be on the path to improving. the import data shows domestic demand in data is still very weak. it's contracted for six months in a row. that is important because that's how the global economy feels chinese growth is weak. understand that is regional trade weakness versus a growth issue? how do you read that? alex: that is chinese specific weakness.

chinese import demand has been exceptionally week. i think a lot of things get blamed on trade. most things get blamed on trade and geopolitics. sarah: does part of that have to do with the fact that some company's have made decisions to say that maybe i want some of my factories outside of china property? -- china proper? is part of it the fact that the supply chain has been disrupted to the extent that people are having a difficult time trying to figure out exactly where they are going to source from if these tariffs didn't go away, and that puts a bit of a damper , that weto begin with need the economy to be stronger generally? capex, ite look at has come down quite sharply. the other data point, if you look at chinese outbound fdi, it

has slowed down substantially. you can look in other countries where they are looking to set up factories. it is a big source of import demand. alix: there was news overnight withthere was a bank turnines -- the country's to fix it, but they aren't necessarily doing it very quickly. alex: they're going to let bankruptcies pickup. they're looking at bankruptcies as a sort of creative disruption. by allowing more bank these -- more bankruptcies, it will improve the efficiency with which banks output capital. sarah: i also look at the global picture and see autos have been

very weak. that's been a big problem for global gdp. we put a lot of out of horrid by doing a lot of financing at thing else, and they say, ok, is there also a problem globally with capacity. re: over quepasa tithing -- are we over capacity? this is where i start worrying about, here we are with the market at high levels, and all of these things are going on underneath. do we get back to some sort of higher trend growth? it feels a little bit like we've pulled forward a lot of that demand. vincent: the other thing is --alex: the other thing is since the crisis, every few years of so we've had these mini cycles, and each time we've been lifted out of the trough it's been because of chinese stimulus. it is hard to see what the catalyst might be because chinese stimulus really isn't there. it's hard to see where that catalyst is going to come from, especially with rates negative

throughout most of europe. do have theen you pboc that has indicated, this week in particular, by lowering rates for certain loans, that they are really stimulating. the question is will they be in a rate cutting cycle, and does that change? if you have a pboc that is dovish, that counts. yes or no? in thees, it counts context of many banks globally. if you look at the number of banks that are cutting, it is now at a pace that we would expect to see pmi's eventually rebound. it'shina specifically, piecemeal, but it is so far less than what they've done in the past that it is hard to see it having that much of an impact. , you went also through this time where the u.s. was like, we are not going to let industries keep going down. we are going to normalize. i haven't heard a lot about

normalization in the secondary adoration once we get through this easing cycle. if you think that this is now not going to be temporary, but more permanent, you start having all of those discussions about what does that mean for multiples, where should the market be, and every thing else, and that gives you a little more room. alix: or we've heard a lot about stimulus, but now we might actually get stimulus. we've heard in japan that we might see a stimulus package for the first time since 2016 because they are worried about a global slowdown. is that your base case for certain countries that can do it? alex: it is not our base case yet. we are looking at japan, looking at germany to see if the politics will allow for more fiscal stimulus. but i think you are seeing the trend shift in that direction. one of the surprising countries has been korea, kind of the germany of asia where they had a very large surplus, but they have been unwilling to stimulate. but you've seen fiscal stimulus that helping to support the economy. it is not creating much of a rebound, but it is a good step

in the right direction. alix: so look at actionable, then. we talked about the rotation into value encyclicals. valuehat also count into when it comes to em, when it comes to europe? sarah: i think people are starting to look for someplace they can catch up. i'm so worried about a negative reversion on some of the valuations and some of the sectors, so i think that people really started to look at individual companies and say, even within a sector, where am i going to get some value? it is tough given the fact that you had such big runs and so much money come into equity markets that you look at valuations, and it becomes difficult to say i definitely want to add some exposure. i think people are starting to look at that, and you have seen that rotation into value. some things are value traps, but i differently think you see movement in that direction. alix: what is good value? sarah: that is a tough one. alix: i don't know. [laughter] sarah: normally you would say

industrials should be, but they are all almost back to where they were. you have to look into individual places and say, within the defense sector, right now it looks cheaper than some of the other ones. within this sector, i think that looks better. you look at a relative scale because on an absolute scale, they all seem to be higher. then you see what are the process -- the prospects going forward. i think he would see some sector issues along with health care, defense, some of the areas we are right now. right now we are not pricing any changes in in policy. it is early to do so, but that is something that could also happen into next year. alix: what about in your world? it's a longer term view. it's a private bank. how do you view value? basically, it is time to spend a little. it is time to get into value now versus a year ago. what do you tell your clients?

alex: at the moment, we are looking a bit more at cyclicals. we take a long term, but also a bit of a short-term tactical in the u.s. as well. some of the boiling up we are seeing in markets on the back of reduced tail risks around recession and around geopolitics. alix: do you feel like your clients would want to get more invested now, take on more risk? or just diversify what they have? alex: the clients i generally deal with are in asia. i think there is still a bit of skepticism around the trade talks, particularly in hong kong as well, given the stress we are having their. there is skepticism about taking more risk on at the moment. alix: really great perspective. really appreciate you joining us, alex bolt, jp morgan. sarah hunt will be sticking with me. withur to otto is here first -- viviana hurtado is here

with first word news. viviana: president trump will not impose tariffs on autos in europe, according to european commission president jungle juncker. -- president jean-claude juncker. over to the state of alabama, where jeff sessions will run for the u.s. senate seat he gave up to become president trump's first attorney general. sessions says he remains a strong trump supporter despite "our ups and downs." last year, after months of insults from the president, he resigned from the cabinet having recusal from the 2016 investigation into russian influence. salman reportedly cutting his valuation for aramco to 1.7 trillion dollars, but money managers still think that is too high.

the firm says lowering the valuation would be a sign of strength on aramco's part. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm the vienna or tonto. -- i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: thank you. anyir question, is there annual dividend that saudi aramco could pay out that would make you feel good about taking on long-term oil risk? sarah: if you look at where the other national oil companies and big oil companies are trading, i thicket is difficult. look at bp. you got high yields there. a lot of high-yield and the sector, and it is difficult to get people interested. where there is value in the butet, it is an energy, that seems to be an area that is very difficult to invest because you just keep getting hit on the head again. alix: i should point out, this is one of my favorite charts. this redline is where saudi aramco's dividend would be at a $1.6 trillion valuation.

shell and bp are all up here. this is what you were talking about before about a value trap. is it all energy, or are there areas that aren't a value trap? sarah: at the moment, it all feels like a value trap. the stoxx were not refunding higher oil prices -- the stocks were not reflecting higher oil prices. they just keep going down when oil comes down, and that seems a very difficult place to invest unless you have a fairly long time horizon. you get a lot of sentiment discussions that we are moving to ev's and we don't need hydrocarbons, and you have a lot of hydrocarbons, so that mix it difficult. all that scarcity back in the day when oil was climbing, you're not seeing that scarcity. that max it very difficult unless you have a long time horizon. alix: especially for saudi aramco. always a pleasure. thank you very much. sarah hunt of alpine woods. coming up on this program, disney+ launches next week, and its ceo is all into reading --

is all in to win the streaming war. if you have a bloomberg terminal, check out tv . this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." disney trying to ensure it will have access to tencent's billions of online viewers, the comedy reaching an agreement to put it on amazon, samsung, and lg devices. next week, disney+ debuts. the swiss parent of cartier reporting half-year earnings that missed estimates. double-digit sales slumped in hong kong. protests there have bettered

richemont. investments in e-commerce are sapping profitability. morgan stanley could be facing a $28 million fine. france's market regulator accusing it of manipulating european bond markets. the bank allegedly was trying to avoid big losses on government bond trades. morgan stanley denies these allegations. i'm viviana hurtado. that's your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. we turn now to our weekly "bloomberg businessweek" feature. first up, bob iger all in for the streaming wars. disney+ debuts next week and could define the ceos legacy. and a radical fix for the health-care crisis, a home insurer gives homeless medicaid recipients places to live. farm life.' new wall street bankers heading out with shovels in hand for their new lives. let's start with the cover, which is bob iger.

it is like a mean, aggressive, nasty picture on the front. what was the gist of the article? reporter: potentially this is bob iger's legacy. he's going to be outgoing in 2021 as of his latest contract, and disney+ is there big entry into the streaming wars. he built his whole career on these giant 10 figure acquisitions. pixar, lucasfilm, and the most recent is this tech company that is basically designed to help stream videos. this is their entry. disney+ is there big offering. it is going to be family friendly programming, a bunch of new shows, new movies, as well as the disney vault, star wars, the marvel cinematic universe. this starts next week on november 12, $6.99 a month. alix: oh i know. we already bought it. reporter: that's there big thing, it is almost half the price of netflix. alix: first of all, in terms of

content, how much are investors going to be willing to the content costs lie? on the flipside, they don't have to report their streaming numbers, do they? reporter: right. it is a big risk. they pulled their stuff off of netflix. ,t is very easy money for them so it is a risk for them to pull it onto their own platform. they are fighting netflix subscriber numbers. 160 million is nowhere near the netflix at 300 million at that point. they are really fighting to draw people in with legacy content. movies, the disney series, the avengers movies. they are really going to keep you coming back for that. alix: let's go to our next story here. the congress said to u.s. hospitals you can't turn any patient away.

this is taking a twist. when it comes to where people have a place to sleep, we don't really have that yet the united health care, america's largest insurer, has begun a pilot program in a couple of cities, phoenix, milwaukee, las vegas. they create apartment housing complexes in house about 60 people, recipients on medicaid who are formerly homeless, and whose health care costs are really extravagant. a lot of homeless people will go -- theer, to be saying er, may be saying my chest hurts. they know they will get a place to sleep. shifting that a location of, if you have a place to live, you might have a more stable lifestyle. you may not go to the er as many times. they've actually seen, in one case, a reduction of cost by up to 80%.

there's a particular target. it is not going to work for every person who's homeless, but people who have chronic health conditions, really high medical costs, may actually benefit from this kind of unusual thing that really points to a weird lack of social policy in the u.s., where you have a for-profit company coming in and saying, we have a solution for this. alix: it is an amazing article, so everyone definitely read this one. this last one, this is basically farming for rich people as a hobby? reporter: exactly. gentlemen and gentlelady farmers, in some cases retired bankers, and some cases people doing this on the weekends, taking to the country, buying up land. there's a little loophole, you do get a tax break for having agriculture land. but people taking back to the land and realizing they want to get involved in farming. in one case, you have a banker who went to spain and said, i have to re-create this, so he started farming this one particular type of pig to get

the ham to be just so. kind of a nice lifestyle farming. alix: i don't think farming would be relaxing for me on the weekends, but ok. silvia killingsworth, thank you so much. you can read all of these stories in the latest issue of "bloomberg businessweek," in digital on news -- digital and on newsstands now. whenber these ads, investment banks showed their warmer side through videos, showing traders hard at work? i'm a general partner at bear stearns. >> richard hill is one of the new breed of men. >> mortgage backed securities everyday. [indiscernible] there will be some type of decline in the next when he months. it will be earthshaking.

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69is apparently a brisk degrees fahrenheit to keep traders awake. if you are jumping into your car, tune into bloomberg radio on sirius xm channel 119 and the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time for trader's take. joining me as vincent cignarella, voice of the bloomberg audio squawk. you're looking at the yen. walk me through. vincent: we are going to go a little macro on this. a good strategist reminded me a few days ago in london that all of the sentiment indicators we -all ofking at work pre this positive attitude. when you look at where something is going to go, as a trader, you need to get ahead of the crowd.

chasing it doesn't usually help. in this situation, as you know, about a month ago, we liked dollar-yen to hold the 1.07 handle. in this scenario, next month, when you see the sentiment indicators come out, if the momentum continues as we hope it will come of the sentiment indicators will push dollar-yen higher, looking at potentially 1.125. alix: i like it. vincent cignarella, thank a lot. you can listen to him every day on squa . coming up in the next hour, raphael bostic, atlanta fed president, will join us. this is bloomberg. ♪

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november 8. i'm alix steel. let's take it right from the top. >> in the past two weeks, the leaders of the two sides have conducted serious and constructive discussions. alix: china and the u.s. remove a key roadblock to an interim trade deal. >> the big question is when they will agree that these tariffs should be rolled back or removed. alix: and where it will be signed. chinese imports shrink for the sixth month in a row. >> the thing people are the most concerned about here is how this could inflame protests that had in recent weeks dropped off. they've gotten smaller than we've seen earlier in the summer, and people are worried that this could recharge that kind of activity. alix: and hong kong come of the death of a student may have an impact on this weakens protests. the student died near the scene of a demonstration, but the circumstances aren't clear. our safe havens still the place be?

gold gets slammed, treasuries fall the most since summer, and defensive stocks sink. pleased to announce additional distribution partnerships with amazon fire, samsung, and lg. disney+ will also be available in a bundle with espn plus and ad supported hulu for $12.99 a month's. alix: disney trying to ensure that users will have access to its new service. disney+ did use next week. in the markets, we have this amazing four-day rally in equity. yields pushing higher. now we are taking a break. s&p futures at 3082. do you want to continue to rotate out a value into risk, or have we taken it too far? 10-year gilts up by two. really, you're looking at potentially 2% on the 10 year. joining me for the hour is

michael mckee, bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent. mike and i, for everyone, we are really close. this is really nice. i called him my first work cousin. it's good to have you for the hour. where were looking at for the hour? michael: i had this tongue-in-cheek theory that we are kind of in a boredom phase, which we haven't been in in years. the reason is impeachment because the president's tweets are all about impeachment. they are not about the economy or the fed. there isn't much for people to react to. maybe that is overplaying that whole aspect of it. there is a sort of momentum trade feel to this. we get some good numbers, some stimulus from central banks, and everybody starts moving in the same direction, and then you are trying to catch up with everybody else. in both of those theories, it's kind of a what's beneath it. is it really holding up, and could we reverse quickly? that's what i'm watching today.

if there's anything out there that some people in another direction. alix: where are the trade tweets? i'm waiting. you could say it was trade optimism that gave that bump to risky assets. you can see the ferocity of the moving yields in september, october, november. joining us now is rick bensignor, bensignor investment johnegies president, and mathews, ubs wealth management head of ultrahigh net worth america's. do you still sell treasuries at this point? sell treasuries. about six weeks ago or so, we said there was a bottom at 1.45% on the 10 year, the low for the year. 1.9%, i we are above think you really start to cross 2%, you have a lot of people on the wrong side of this market. you will see more pain in the

bond market. so i think when we talk about what is going to happen between , the averageend portfolio manager on the street, chances are he's trailing his benchmark. they've been wrongly positioned for almost the entire year. most people came into the year very defensive. that was not the right place to be. in the last month, look at what reads have done. the second leader has fallen to almost flat. it is still outperforming the s&p, but it has given up so much. so you've got seven weeks to go. forced toey are benchmark. you're not going to see immaterial decline between now and to summer 31st. the worse the s&p gets, this pulls -- to december 31. diverse the s&p gets, this pulls back. bonds are not working. stocks are working.

gold is not working. i think you stay there. michael: is this a moment i'm trade that everyone is trying to get to the end of the year, to follow the market so they don't lose? or already vulnerable to a tweet? -- or are we vulnerable to a tweet? john: i think this rally cut everybody by surprise, frankly. but we are still at historical lows. unemployment is very low at this time. i think the u.s. economy is really strong. the rest of the world, maybe not so much. in europe you have a different set of problems. interest rates are negative. you can't seem to get the markets going anywhere. the u.s. is still the driving force. we are not really looking at it from a portfolio manager's point of view, but more of a client point of view. our clients got back into the markets, but many of our wealthy clients today are waiting for some sort of a pullback or opportunity to deploy cash at a

better time. it's caught people by surprise, and i think we will have to see what happens through the next couple of weeks. this whole thing about tweets, though, it is amazing that a tweet here or there will completely change the debt, of the market. michael: do we see resistance there that maybe keeps us in a range for a while? rick: 2.07%. alix: not to be specific. [laughter] rick: once you climb up to 2%, it is 2.07%. alix: it is interesting. em, andincludes europe, value in the u.s., but you're still really concerned in the u.s. still top of the block. why do you see it is more of the latter than the former? our clients are looking from a more long-term point of view. they still feel strongly in the

of us economy. most of them live and work here. they feel good about where we are. they go back and look at unemployment, and interest rates are at historic lows. the price in liquidity has been volatility. the volatility aspect of it is what has kept cash and bounces higher enable market cycle then normal. michael: we are hearing a lot about that these days. there is so much cash being put on the sidelines. is it because people are worried about meeting cash because there's a liquidity shortage? is it because they are worried about where the economy is going ? they can't find the returns. it literally is an alternative to fixed income not because they need cash, but because they are looking for opportunities. that's the other big piece. rick: so what happens if the market actually doesn't pullback

and doesn't give the chance to go in, and we just keep drifting? alix: as it has for a long time. rick: the entire year has been that case. john: we saw that last year. we saw a lot of people get out of the market only to get in too late earlier this year. our job as financial advisors is to try to keep our clients invested properly based on what their plans are over time, and also to stay diversified. if you are not in these markets before these moves, many times you miss them or you just get into lake. alix: which is -- get in too late. alix: which is your point of why we could see this continue. rick: correct. if you have to go through the whole process of an investment committee to make decisions about reallocations, by the time that gets done, you've missed the move. that's why so many people are trailing their benchmarks this year. there's something in behavioral finance that we talk about, cognitive dissidents. the internal battle -- cognitive

dissonance. the internal battle. do i do what's best for my clients, or what is best for me? as you get close to year end, apm needs to think about, am i going to have a job next year if i am badly trailing my benchmarks? do i chase after the market? maybe i'm not bullish, but to save my own rear end? that's what i need to do. this internal battle to me, at the very least, sisters benchmark chasing between now and year-end. john: i agree. when you start chasing benchmarks, things can happen. that's the issue. you are chasing performance, you can have that surprise go the other way really quickly. what we try to do, our perspective is more from a client perspective than a portfolio management perspective. our view is got to keep and i on the long-term, and you got to stay true to what you're trying to do. you're going to have volatility

and gyrations all through the timeframe you are working with, but you've got to stay true to what your plan is. michael: how solid do you think we are in this move upward, this general change in attitude towards the global economy? -- wewe were monitoring were moderately underweight equities coming into this, so we haven't been right on track either, but it is amazing. a quick tweet, the news comes out that there may be some sort of trade deal between the u.s. and china, the markets rally dramatically. not?if there's what is the next suite says that was all fake news or it is not working out there we wanted to. what happens to the markets? it is easy to stay defensive because you don't know what is coming next. alix: you wind up having larry kudlow saying to bloomberg if we get a deal, we will roll back. i still haven't seen the tweet from president trump that says if we get a deal, i will roll this back. michael: he made it clear when he came out following kudlow and

said only one man can make that decision. talk about chasing benchmarks, people chase this china trade deal tweet. one little bit of good news, and everybody is up. one little bit of bad news, everybody is down. why can't people wait until we see what happens? alix: that's not fun. [laughter] rick: because they have a responsibility both to themselves and to the clients. they have jobs, and they need to perform. you can't just let the market go high and not protected -- and not partake in it. michael: it seems like a risk. you are at risk of losing money for reacting in such a short period of time. rick: but you have career risk if you are a portfolio manager and you don't partake. if the s&p ends up a 25% this year and you are up 16% because you've been badly position for the bulk of the year, that's it. if you are up a fraction of

that, you're going to have a hard time keeping your assets. there's a real game here. we have to think about the human element. it's not just machines and robots who do this. there are people who are making decisions all the time. they need to think about their own career risk. there's so much stuff out there that easily gave you reasons not to be fully invested, or to be very defensive for the bulk of the year. they are mainly trailing the s&p. alix: so what is your trade right now? rick: i'm long copper. i think copper has put a real bottom in. gold is real touch and go. and you are a commodities gal. you look at the commitments trading report the last couple of months, the specs are way long. as much as seven to one long versus short.

they cut it to 421, but that is still a real must balance. seve got people on the wrong side. it is down again today. until that kind of settles down, you are covering the shorts into .pec traders you're not going to find a bottom yet in gold. i was telling one of my clients yesterday, probably between $1435 or so. japan broke out of a 20 year sideways pattern i guess a year-and-a-half ago, and started moving up. you would think this would be the beginning of a massive move, and it actually fully corrected and came all the way back to a range. golda broke out of a six year range. everybody bullish gold, people talking $2000, $3000. soon, ande in sue here we are -- came in so soon,

and here we are. we haven't gone anywhere for gold. rick bensignor of bensignor invest in strategies, thank you so much. john mathews of ubs wealth management stays with us. we will have more on his new billionaires report. plus, mike and i will speak with raphael bostic, atlantis had president, so don't miss that. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: 2018 was not the best year for billionaires. over the five years to the end of 2018, billionaire wealth grew over 34%, reaching $8.5

trillion. in 2018, that wealth dropped by one put your percent. so what happened? john mathews of ubs wealth management is with us for more on his billionaires report, and also with us is bloomberg's sonali basak. so what happened? there's 2201 billionaires out there in the world. once again come of the u.s. economy proved resilient. we are the only region in the world where billionaires grew in wealth and in numbers, which i think is incredible. every other region in the world fell dramatically. sonali: but a lot of that came from tech wealth. something i'm wondering about this, what happens after the wework effect? we are seeing so many things miss valued. now the trajectory of growth in the u.s., is that set to stop into next year? john: i don't think so.

wework is an interesting question, but i think what you tech, they almost doubled the network for tech billionaires, which is interesting. quite a bit more than the other industries. if tech billionaires were a region themselves, they would be the second largest country behind the united states. but it's on the backs of the changing of tech billionaires. it was built on software, internet, and now it is on fintech, e-commerce. you have a new group of technology entrepreneurs and innovators coming along. so we don't think it is going to stop. i think it is going to continue. tech is the driving force in our economy right now, even when you look at consumer and retail. you almost have to think those are tech companies now through e-commerce. very resilient in the u.s.. sonali: if tech makes its own country, does that mean you are not just flying over to silicon

valley? where else are you flying these days to meet all of these billionaires? john: we are a global firmjohn:, and we have businesses in asia, europe, and the united states. we see this happening in the u.s. and driving into asia, specifically china. china is very volatile. you had 106 billionaires drop off the list, and 56 get added to the list. china is still in a very volatile stage. most of these billionaires are tied up in their operating companies. the markets are all in. with mark about agility, you will see that continue to happen. the whole asia-pacific area, there's 7.7 billion people on the planet today, and 4.4 billion live in that region of ---specific -- of a specific of asia pacific. sonali: last year i felt like china was the great hope of the billionaire class, and this year america. alix: for women also.

that also continue to more women billionaires. john: i think it is a really important piece in our report. women billionaires are growing at a faster pace than male billionaires. they are up 46% the last five years to 233. that is off a smaller base come up with trend will not change. that is going to continue to accelerate. you will see more women billionaires. there's a misconception that it may be inheritance or whatever. it is not. they are more and more self-made. sonali: what changed? are they getting more promoted, making more money? why is it that all of a sudden, you are seeing more women rise in the ranks? john: all of the above. many times, if it is part of a wealthy family, they take it to the next level. we see that the women in the families do a great job helping the longevity succeed down the road. michael: one question i have,

when these people get the money and they've got their billions, what are they doing with it? are they just investing to get higher returns, or starting to put it to work starting other companies, doing other things that build the global economy? john: that's a great question. you brought up this group i think is going to be really important to get involved in philanthropy. they do today, but even more down the road. if we are going to try to achieve these 17 u.n. goals, there's no way governments and ngos can do this alone. we are going to need the help of very wealthy people like billionaires. if you think of the giving pledge, 204 families have signed on, which means they signed on to give away more than half of their wealth. those are in 23 different countries, starting in the u.s. that is a big part. they are trying to make a positive impact on society, at least a number of them, and we need that.

investment, i said this in the earlier segment, liquidity in the markets has been translated into volatility. it doesn't matter if you are a billionaire or a normal investor, volatility sometime is not your friend, so we see a lot of our wealthier clients actually go into private companies, direct investments. there's not as much liquidity, but much more long-term focus. they are more interested in having a hands-on effect for the long-term, so we do see that. alix: really appreciate you bringing that study to us. john mathews of ubs, and sonali basak, thank you. coming up, david einhorn versus elon musk. it could be fun. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." the coalition that includes,

hbo, and cable industry titans is going to cut down on password sharing, a loophole that could be costing them billions of dollars. there considering a number of including texting codes to users to keep watching. disappointing third-quarter growth sent shares falling. the company includes name brands and bananabrands gap republic. learnedg has regulators are holding off until they can look at electric car sales data the next few months. cutting subsidies could deal another blow to a once burgeoning industry, now facing an unprecedented slump. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. one of the things i love most

about the stories today is the david einhorn versus elon musk. david einhorn as lashed out in a letter to investors, but then lost money in recent months on his bet against tesla, so elon musk takes to twitter and is like, "you have our sympathies. we know you want to save face with investors." this is the new way of communicating, i guess. in the old days it would have been a letter to the board. he invited david einhorn to visit the factory. but now he is trying to insult him on twitter. einhornr, musk said short shorts to insult him. alix: coming up, we speak to raphael bostic, atlanta fed president. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ the game doesn't end after that insane buzzer beater.

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with the power of your voice. that's simple, easy, awesome. say nba league pass into your voice remote to upgrade for a great low price - or go online today. alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am alix steel. here is where we are settling in on this friday. s&p futures pretty much flat after the nice risk on we saw. in other asset classes is where

we get interesting. still seeing us off the bond market. the bear steepeners continue to take over. the 2-10 the biggest mover this week at 26 basis points. that up being reflected in the equity market or the commodity market. cyclical commodities getting hit with crude off over 1%. you rotate into value, do you chase the rallies or selling to treasuries or take a pause? we saw a lot of money into global equities, the most we have seen in a long time this week for the first time in two years. gold taking a hit. we want to highlight the global market. u.s. china trade still in focus. if there is a deal, do you see buying in the equity market? we want to market our bloomberg television and radio listeners. joining us here for a special conversation is raphael bostic, president of the atlanta fed, the perfect one to help us answer these questions. you said you would probably

dissent and vote against and interest rate cut at the last fomc meeting. why? raphael: one of the things we try to do in the six district is what is the economy and how much are the risks to being taken on by businesses and consumers? wering from our directors, were not hearing that and a material way. we had already done a fair amount of combination, we had moved twice. it was my view we should let that go and wait and see how it plays out. then if we see there is more need for accommodation, we could act at that point. we had already done a lot and i was willing to let and see how that plays with the economy. were you concerned rates are too low? is there a concern with where rates are? what would be the problem? raphael: we are slightly accommodative. that is fine. i do not think our position is

likely to spark the economy to get into an overheated mode where we might expect there to be some weakening in response to that. i worry about the policy space , 1.75, that is not a lot 1.75, that is not a lot of space, when you think historically what the responses to recession, we do not have much space. i want to make sure that when we do deploy our tools they are deployed to maximum effect in a way that weed leaves us with policy options moving forward. -- that leaves us with policy options moving forward. michael: you mentioned recession. there seems to be a change of mood and wall street with the idea of a downturn being priced out. people getting optimistic. have you seen that change on the ground in your district or did wall street see something that the businessmen you talk to do not see? raphael: my business contacts have been consistent for the year. the consumer has been solid.

revenues have been solid. profits have been stable. for many, it is more than what they expected at the beginning of the year. what they told me is they're expecting that to continue into 2020. i have not heard much of a change in perspective. they have always been a positive space and that is what we are expecting moving forward. alix: to add on to the speech you gave yesterday, the trade policy impact on the business sector remains modest, slowing capital expenditures by a few percentage point and leading to a small change in overall employment -- like you were saying, it is not doing that much. walk me through what higher yields do. we freak out when we go from 1.3 to 1.8 and there is lots of volatility on wall street. we freak out. what does it mean for you? for me and many businesses, we take a longer view. this day-to-day volatility is not what affects them because it

is not what is driving their consumers when they walk into their stores to buy goods. when you see the longer arc, the risks are out there, there is uncertainty, much of it has not not resolved in been resolved in ways we know what the impacts are. what i am hearing from businesses is they understand their incentives, there is a wide set of them, they are making contingency plans and starting to think about diversifying supply chains and ways to get goods to market. not with the level of panic or consternation i have heard articulated. michael: when you look at the uncertainty, and everybody blames that on the trade wars, our companies saying they need to expand but they are afraid to , or are they pretty much comfortable with the resources, the supply they have to meet demand? raphael: i think it is more the latter. for many businesses 2018 was a

record year in terms of performance. staying at a bad thing. i think staying at this level is something businesses will be comfortable with. if there were opportunities to grow and do things that were pressing, they would want to do that. in that context, the biggest constraint i am hearing them say is finding quality labor. the labor market is tight. they are looking for ways to get the right people into position so they can take advantage of opportunities. michael: if your -- alix: if you are watching bloomberg television or listening to bloomberg radio, we want to welcome you. we are speaking with atlanta fed president raphael bostic. where is the labor sector most tight? raphael: i would say not in sectors but in segments of the labor market. trying to get entry-level workers has become extremely competitive. businesses are changing their screening requirements, drug

tests are being dropped. looking at prison records is being dropped. we even heard of a restaurant hiring you and you started on the same day. they are being aggressive in trying to get the entry-level worker and the wage pressures are significant. we know that engineers, tech people, nurses, places where the thatmy is super strong for and looking for those sorts of workers, or where we know we have shortages of workers, in the cases of nurses or truck drivers, we are seeing definite competition and that is showing up in wages. michael: the question is why aren't wages overall rising given where we are at unemployment? is there extra slack or have we just gotten used to a low-wage environment? raphael: i think it is a combination of a number of factors. when i first started this job to and a half years ago, i asked

this question. we have to find out why this is happening. if you're complaining about shortages of workers, just pay them more and you will compete better. some of them said i remember seven years ago when i had to lay off one third of my staff. that was so painful. i am going to be reticent to quickly take people on that way. others said that today's workers, many of them are not looking for wages, they are looking for flexibility in the work schedule, they are looking to bring their pet to work, they are looking to a lot of different things. alix: bring your pet to work? that is a thing. yes.el: oh alix: i am a cap person. michael: we have that in common. -- i am a cat person. michael: we have that in common. raphael: the third is on the

consumer side. willingness to push wages has changed a lot as well. that was 10 years ago, almost. more than 10 years ago. psychology, the further away you get, the more you get into a more regular type of mindset, a more historically normal mindset. what we are seeing is significant -- if you look at our wage tracker we have on our website, you are seeing significant jumps in wages for people who are changing jobs. this notion you are starting to get from energy and the labor force, that is an important sign things are not so irregular and we may be getting back into a more normal phase. michael: in this political season, there is a lot of talk about two americus and how some are doing well, particularly urban areas, you have big urban

areas in your district, and you have some very poor areas. are there two americas? do people see things differently as you travel around your district? raphael: there are definitely multiple americas. our district is incredibly diverse. if you look at the map, most of my area is not the big cities. it is smaller towns, it is rural, it is agricultural. there are places where many of them used to have a mill that used to employ a lot of workers, but as the economy has evolved, those things have disappeared. you go to places like south georgia or northern alabama, northwestern alabama, or the eastern half of tennessee once you get past chattanooga and the like, you see places or they are not experiencing 3% growth. nation andation died

their demographics -- their population stagnation and their demographics are aging rapidly. you face a different challenge in nashville or midtown atlanta. we try to talk to them differently about the economy and about what things they need. what are the skills that might be required for being competitive for the workforce of tomorrow? how do you think about the regionto project that and be in the mind of employers looking for that next place to open? it is a very different conversation that we have in some of the hot places where it is how do you preserve affordability and access to neighborhoods and getting amenities more evenly spread across the area? michael: we are talking with atlanta fed president raphael bostic on bloomberg television and radio. what you do about that? can you help these other areas, not necessarily the fed, but can they be helped with economic policies or have we moved on to

a time period where you have to live in the bigger cities if you want to see economic growth? raphael: i think you can do something about this. one is let's make sure the people living in these places that have stagnated know where the opportunities are. is of the senses i have had there is a global economy, things are changing, in many instances it stops there and is it not say change imposes cost but also brings opportunities, and you can position yourself to take advantage of those opportunities. i go to places and they do not know what the opportunities are. they have not had people have that conversation. there are things like automation, all of these new developments. jobs come with them. the jobs have a different set of skills and we need to make sure they understand what those skills are and that we also have pipelines and pathways so they can get those skills. historically in the u.s., we

have always had technological disruption. everyone used to be a farmer. now we do not need as many farmers. in those days the skills you needed to do farming were not so different from the skills you needed to work in a factory. today the skills you need to do many of the jobs being disrupted are different. we need to have robust and mature training programs and facilities to allow people to get those skills. alix: is that anything you can do? raphael: we do not do that is the fed. alix: it sounds like that has to be all the government. raphael: it needs to be institutionalized. sometimes that will be the public sector. other times it will be the private sector. i had a director in my new orleans branch who ran a hospital. see said we do not have enough nurses. she set up a school. differenting many

hands, private sector, public-private partnerships, nonprofits get involved. one of the things we try to do is try to understand what is in that community that can come together to be the building blocks for those strategies to make that change? michael: let's bring it back to monetary policy. chairman powell has talked about leaving rates low to help those people out as much as possible to get the expansion into those corners of the economy. how comfortable are you with interest rates where they are and how long would you be able to leave them there in order for that to happen? raphael: i think it is great that the chair is willing to talk about the distributional impact of monetary policy and there fact there might be distributional impact. we know in economic cycles there are certain segments of our population that are the last ones to benefit. the longer you can have a growth cycle, the more possibilities and opportunities there are for that group to become part of the

labor force and labor market. my biggest concern is if you run low in the market gets too hot, almost every time we get to a place where the market is too hot, the labor market gets too tight, that is usually a signal is this is are taking risks and we often will find there will be a recession after that. when that happens, it is often the case that the last ones in are the first ones out. the benefits wind up not being as great. one of the things i'm hoping for his sustainable growth. , a's have this go along steady way so we do not get to the overheating position, so when we get new jobs there jobs that will sustain. for me, that is part and parcel with what we are trying to do writ large. my hope is we will not see those signs of overheating. we will not see pockets of the economy where it looks like there is significant risk taking

building up that might spill over into a broader economic experience or event. that is where we are right now, where my head is at. alix: atlanta fed president raphael bostic, thank you so much. great to spend time with you. for all of our television and radio listeners, thank you for joining us. disney's streaming magic awaits you after yesterday's earnings beat. will be speaking to michael nathanson in today's bottom line. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time for bottom line. we will look at three companies worth watching. today i'm joined by michael mckee for the hour. i will be taking a look at blackstone. the firm's cohead of real estate says anything is possible

looking ahead to 2020. erik schatzker spoke exclusively to blackstone's kathleen mccarthy. >> we have great relationships with investors and access to great funds, so we look at transactions more in terms of what we contrive in terms of performance. a transaction is not limited by size. alix: interesting blackstone is betting it all on real estate. michael: they have never done that before. [laughter] alix: if you keep having the light -- the rise in yields -- michael: it is interesting because of the repricing in the bond market. they must not think it will last forever. alix: what are you looking at? michael: speaking of real estate, madison square garden reported this morning big losses, $3.36 per share. the stock has been up. the reason is they have come up with their latest plan to separate out the two parts of

the company, the entertainment part, which is madison square garden the arena, the beacon theater in new york, the forum in los angeles, from the two sports teams, the knicks and the rangers. analysts say the sports teams are worth more than the combined company is at this point. the view is they can make more money that way, by separating them out. it does not say anything about whether the sports teams are going to do better. the makes have only -- the knicks have onlyknicks have onle this year. it looks like the new orleans -- the nolans will still be in charge of both of the entities. alix: we have not ever talked about this. michael: if you're going to analyze this, expense report my knicks tickets. alix: the third company michael and i are watching is disney.

joining us on the phone is michael nathanson with a buy rating for disney. what you make of the quarter. what will be the biggest catalyst for the company? michael: can i just a ranger fan and it is killing me, too? there are auarter, lot of worries heading into this parks business, about the fox integration. the stock is up today because some of the numbers were put to bed for the quarter, and now we are looking forward to the disney plus launch, which is a week away. there were a lot of nervous folks heading into last night's earnings, but i thought the results were good and keep people excited about what is to come, which is disney plus. gapyeah, butt this a report? you look the numbers and you say

yeah, but disney plus is coming. won't people overlook the performance of the parts -- the parks and look at disney plus? put up: if disney could big numbers in the first couple quarters of this new product's life, people will be dreaming a dream about how big it could be. you've seen this on netflix for many years. i think people are framing this the right way, which is we do not know the final resting place butdisney plus or hulu, near-term momentum gets people excited. it is a game changer in terms of sentiment. michael: i have a question about how we will view disney plus and the other competitors coming online. apple launching. nbc getting into the business. netflix, of course. in with as to come lot of subscribers.

will they be able to hold onto this or is this one of those we try to have subscribers instead of profits kind of deal? n.: one of the things we've been writing about his it feels like a race to the bottom on pricing. if you have verizon phone plan you can get disney plus for free. if you have apple phone, you get apple plus. if you have at&t and get hbo max. in the near-term, you are seeing a ton of product promotion. i tend to agree that longer-term the question is going to be was this a good privet -- a good pivot for the industry? is this a lower roi business that should not be valued the same way traditional media was? i say that is a concern two or three years from here. what was accomplished by pivoting this aggressively? alix: good to chat with you. michael nathanson.

thank you very much. coming up we will be talking disney in today's technically speaking. mike, it was a pleasure. michael: great to be back. to be reunited. alix: we have not sat together in five years. much more on technically speaking in a moment. if you're heading out, tune into bluebird radio heard across the radio on sirius xm channel 119 and on the bloomberg's app. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time for technically speaking. bill maloney, voice of bloomberg equity squad joints me now. listen to bill all day on bloomberg by typing in squa . bill: yields are moving higher again today. first resistance will be yesterday's high, 1.97. if we close above 1.94, we are back in this 1.94 to 2.15 trading range.

expect choppiness if we stay there. alix: let's get to disney. we just talked to the analyst. it was expected to be about subscriber numbers and looking forward to growth issues. what you see? bill: disney is up about 6%. it has been holding the 200 day. first resistance today will be 142. above that the june high, your levels are 142 and 145. alix: thanks a lot to bloombergs bill maloney. that does it for me on bloomberg daybreak: americas. open withon the jonathan ferro, megan greene. happy friday. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪

jonathan: coming up, equities advancing for a fifth rate week. investors remain patient for a phase one deal. another sign the global economy may be bottoming out. china's exports declining less than expected. as european stocks outperform, jean-claude juncker says trump will not hit the eu with auto tariffs. 30 minutes until the opening bow. good morning. friday morning price action. futures lower .1%. the dollar stronger. the treasury selloff continue. yields higher by three basis points. 1.95 is your yield on the u.s. 10 year. let's begin with the big issue. the global bond market selloff continues. >> it feels that in the bond market, yields could go higher. >> close to 2%. >> we think you can go beyond 2% by year end. >> there is a tremendous pile of cash.