total breakdown. as police and gas protesters clash. president trump, the optimist or the skeptic? which president shows up at the economic club of new york? to equities on the road nowhere. investors look for a catalyst to the up or down side as money pours into money market funds. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this tuesday, november 12. .&p futures right at 3088 you still have end-of-the-year performance that you have to catch up on. that dynamic potentially playing out across asset classes. it is time for global exchange, where we bring you today's market moving news from all around the world, from hong kong to berlin to new york and washington. our bloomberg voices are on the ground with today's top stories. we started hong kong.

protesters brought the city's financial district to a standstill. teargas disrupting the commute for a second consecutive day. executive carrie lam says she still hopes district elections will be held as scheduled. we still hope we can hold the elections and try our very best to do so because it is an important election to respect and safeguard, but there's the issue of safety in order, so we have to work hard to satisfy these two requirements. alix: 20 meet on the phone from hong kong is karen -- joining me on the phone from hong kong is karen leigh. what happens next? karen: carrie lam urging order, and at the same time, we had two days of really jarring images and clashes, especially here in the financial hub. these aren't images we've seen

before. this feels like a bit of an escalation. this is something that led police this afternoon to warn that the city was on the brink of total breakdown. carrie lam talking about how she still hopes district elections will be held in a couple of weeks. those have become a bastion of democracy since beijing took over in 1997. residents here are looking at what is going on in the streets. we have classes on college campuses, classes in the financial district, a man being set on fire yesterday, dozens injured, dozens arrested. the city feels like it is in a state of chaos. there's an eerie feeling hovering over everything. there'sthere'a close watch to see if we are headed into day three of this. alix: we want to go to berlin now, where angela merkel signals

her support for a european banking union. it gives tacit approval for her finance minister's plan to explore the policy. joining me from berlin is bloomberg's german government reporter. what exactly did she say about a potential banking union? was aer: well, it surprise move we saw from the german chancellor last night during her visit in rome. her party is extremely critical of this banking union, but she said it was actually a good push by the german finance minister in the social democratic party, and it got the discussion moving, which was a surprise. he has been rather -- she has

been rather critical of this process from the beginning. italians to the work of banks to reduce risks. at the same moment, she said it would be a huge proof of trust to create such positive insurance, but it the first time really she has openly embraced .his concept maybe the problems of italian banks are not as big anymore. alix: thank you very much. now we turn to the latest in the streaming space. the much-anticipated disney+ watches today. the family focused service features at least one to five new tv shows and 10 new films in the post year, along with a -- in the first year, along with a huge archive of disney films. here with more is paul sweeney. what is at stake? paul: this is a big day for the walt disney company. they are debuting disney+ today.

it is pretty attractively priced. disney tends up to go against netflix. this is their big response against the streaming business. disney+ has a tremendous programming platform. they have over 300 movies from the disney library that has been built up over decades, plus all the films from marvel studios, the star wars and pixar movies as well. in addition, disney acquired the majority of 21st century fox earlier this year, so they get all the great fox programming as well. the pivot to streaming won't come cheaply for the walt disney company. they are going to spend billions of dollars every year, and don't expect to break even until 2024, so this is a big investment on behalf of the company. get 60ap breakeven is to to 90 million subscribers. that will get them to breakeven. it is a very competitive , with the likes of

comcast, at&t, and apple getting into the space. the streaming starts today. alix: looking forward to it because of "hercules." is my favorite cartoon. let's turn to the fed. fed vice chairman richard clarida spoke at a conference in zurich. advantage of our current framework, it has provided the committee with the ability to assess a broad range of factors and information, and these actions can and do vary depending on economic circumstances in order to achieve our goals. alix: this comes as we await president trump's speech at the economic club of new york. joining me with more is michael mckee. lay out what we can expect from mr. trump today. michael: you know what is the

most interesting thing? to watch trading volumes during the noon hour. the president can take the market in any direction, and markets will be hanging on every word. the question is whether there will be a deal with china. last weekend, the president seemed to hedge a little bit, and there's no date yet for a signing ceremony. no place, either. europeans say he's going to delay, but this will also involve south korea, japan, maybe mexico and canada. stay tuned on that. other questions, will there be any kind of election-year bid, perhaps new tax cuts he will propose? others at the fed will be watching to see if he bashes jay powell and his colleagues once again. he will tout the record stock market, the low unemployment rate, and talk about how this may be the best

economy in history, even if it is not. where else to seco? -- where else does he go? impeachment, the middle east? these speeches usually last about a half-hour, but donald trump doesn't do half-hour, read the teleprompter speeches. as the chinese would say, it could be an interesting time. alix: most definitely. stay with bloomberg because we will have full coverage of president trump's remarks at the economic club of new york starting at 12:00 p.m. eastern time. finally, house democrats are taking their effort to impeach president trump into a risky new phase of public hearings that the president is easy to turn into a made-for-tv personal battle echoing his successful white house run in 2016. joining me for more is kevin's a really --is kevin's a kevin said really -- the flock -- kevin cirilli.

kevin: how will republicans look to push back against the democrats going after president trump, and specifically, how will they target former vice president joe biden? how will biden be up located in many of these hearings? the second point is how will the president respond? he tweeted in the last when he for hours he will release the original transcript of that call between himself and you came president zelensky -- and ukraine president zelensky. all of this comes during a potential government shutdown on ratifying usmca. all of this impeachment saga, the markets haven't been moving off it, but they are going to potentially be looking to see if this provides cover for more contentious issues like usmca, which has divided the democratic caucus to get it over the finish line. alix: thank you. one other story i'm watching, i

love this data point, the small business owner survey. it is looking a little bit more optimistic. in the lastke up reading, and part of it, there are inventories rising, for example. spending -- capex spending could rise. another stock i am watching this morning is dean foods. this stock is halted in the premarket. it has announced it will file for chapter 11 bankruptcy. it is reorganizing, and is in talks with dairy farmers of america for a potential sale. this has been struggling for a long time, and it has put itself on the sale block for almost a year, and nothing has come of it. it seems like the next step is to clearing bankruptcy, chapter 11, looking for the dairy

farmers of america. coming up, more of your morning trade and analysis on the markets in today's first take. his is bloomberg. -- this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time for bloomberg first take. teamng me for our in-house of wall street veterans and insiders, vincent cigna rella -- and insiders, vincent cignarell and joining uss, equity andaiser, ubs derivatives research.

vince, are we seeing fomo action into the end of the year, or are people in cash because they don't know what is going to happen? i think they don't know what is going to happen. we'll find out at about 12 a lot this afternoon -- at about 12:00 this afternoon. areent: i think the algos going to have fun around 12 clock. he is speaking to the economic club. he's going to be somewhat conciliatory that the trade conversation is going in the right direction. the worry is that he will go off-topic and say something like we are not there yet, we are still in the tariff situation, etc. but the take on the street, we are feeling the asymmetric risk is going to be a risk on day. we will see if the president spoils that. all in all, we are expecting a good day today. alix: in your world of

derivatives, is it the same kind of thing, that you want to position for the upside? stuart: i think the large cash balance is emblematic of the investment community at large gang defensively position for most of the year, the s&p in a range from 2800 to 3000, and all of that being stress tested as we break through the upside. one of the things we've been looking at is call options volumes. the open interest in those indexes is up about 200% over the last month, so you ca terminus chase for upside amongst investors because they -- so you see a tremendous chase for upside amongst investors because they are in a range. investors are being stress tested. your defensive positioning is being stress tested. policy events like today add further to that. peggy: i think it is also important to point out that we are coming to the end of the year, and a lot of wealthy

clients tend to make changes, take some money off the table at the end of the year. i think a lot of wealthy clients are waiting for that opportunity. we are in the 11th year of the record expansion in the u.s., oftentimes having cash on the sidelines allows you to jump in and get a great deal when things turn around. i think having cash on the sidelines is sometimes a way for people to pounce as well. vincent: there will be opportunities for sure. it always happens as you get into this time of year. october is always more volatile, but contrary to history, where everybody thinks october's returns are horrible because we had crashes and such during that time, it is a positive month for the stock market. it tends to come up barring any jarring to political risk see down the road, tends to set us up for a good end of the year. alix: except for last year. vincent: that was a completely different story. i think the one thing the president does have right is both sides do need to make a deal. china's aggregate loan demand over the weekend is really poor.

if there's no demand for money, there's no demand for goods and services, and no demand for the economy. both sides are feeling it pretty hard. the president has an election year. he's got to start getting some wins if he expects to get reelected or even come close to it. alix: i feel like we are in the sort of dynamic, do you want to position risk on before noon, then go take lunch, then come back and reassess? be activelyoing to looking and trading on the algorithms? how do you deal with that on a short-term basis? vincent: 12:00 to 1:00 today, let the algos do their thing. i think things will revert to the mean more or less at the end of the day. i don't think the speech is going to be so this is the end of the world, the trade deal is off, or the greatest news in the world. we will get some pros and cons. the market is going to move up and down. at the end of the day, i think we fade. more towards the middle peggy: i

think it is important to remember -- fade more towards the middle. peggy: i think it is important to remove her that every little move has gotten the market's attention, but they have been incremental. get justill trying to stage one of the deal. the december 15 tariffs still on the table, but open to those not going into new tariffs. then we had news last week that there's potentially roback on about $100 billion of goods into backr -- potentially roll on $100 billion of goods in september. but we are still looking for just phase one. alix: do you agree? stuart: i agree. it's been a tricky year for trade because most of the last on years, when the news trade was really good -- alix: vince feels good about that. stuart: but again, the last month has been different.

the news on the trade site has been positive, or skewed positive. the news on president has been positive -- on brexit has been positive. i think it's boot traders a little bit -- i think it spooked traders a bit on the headlines. it has made it a lot more difficult. alix: so are you saying you want to be dying protection here? are you selling vol? stuart: for the last month, we've been telling investors to own the tells. if you're really worried about trade, she protection will handle that. our narrative has changed quite a bit. the labor report changed things a lot for us. to push through the lower end of that s&p range, you needed u.s. consumer data to weaken, and we have unequivocally not seen that. so some of the downside has been taken off, and that has given the confidence to let the market run into year end. if you'd asked me a month ago, i would have said that active managers would have a nice year. they don't want a repeat of that

december meltdown. i think that's the direction we are moving in. unfortunately, the market has just moved through the all-time highs globally, and that has created a lot of uncertainty, which is why you are seeing this bid for call options on the upside. it is a way to keep a defensive portfolio, but own a little but of that lottery ticket if the market continues to move. vincent: that started in a big way two weeks ago in the treasury futures market. the bottoms that went through that market were really size. it was impressive to watch. you are seeing twos, tens, fives, major position swings, and you could sense that the traders were getting out of that long treasury position, squaring up, going short. now we are at kind of interesting levels, 1.90% to 2%. . clearly the risk on sentiment in the treasury market flipped, and we are here now because of that. i think the equity guys followed

along quite nicely. peggy: also, the economic data has been looking solid, almost like companies are not shedding jobs even though there's been this overhang of uncertainty around trade. we've gotten some more clarity on where the fed is going. they've cut three times this year, but powell was effective in messaging in this latest cut. certaintyere's also for investors, or a bit more certainty for investors on where we are going in terms of interest rates for those bond buyers out there as well. alix: i have to say, juncker called it. he is a fully informed man. we may not see european car tariffs now. vincent: i will wait for the other shoe to drop. we will see how informed juncker is or not. [laughter] vincent: we've got when he for hours still. i wouldn't play that for another day. it may come out today. alix: it depends on the market reaction and all that. thanks a lot.

great to see you. stuart kaiser of ubs investment management is sticking with me. a reminder, we will use charts throughout the next two hours. if you want to check them out, go to gtv on the terminal. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ is "bloomberg daybreak." disney had the battle for streaming customers. disney+ went live early today. fiveompany hopes within years, it can attract 90 million users. the streaming business is getting crowded, though. disney, netflix, amazon, and five apple, soon to be joined by at&t and comcast. nissan still struggling to get back on track after the arrest

of former chairman carlos cohen. the cut -- chairman carlos ghosn. the owner of jaguar land rover is looking for strategic partners. bloomberg has learned tata group has approached carmakers. india's largest conglomerate wants to save on costs and talks are still in the early stages. that is your bloomberg businessflash. i'm also looking at tesla. bloomberg asked 5000 tesla owners, what is it like to drive elon musk's electric car? here are some of the cool things we found. a car reallyee is for millennials and gen x, so most of the owners were between 30 and 50 with above average incomes, and almost 95% were male. what car did the buyers give up for a tesla?

this i found super interesting. toyota prius was number one, followed closely by bmw series three, and the beemer was only er was and the beam the only one within the model three price range. when you measure luxury cars traded in for model threes, bmw proved to be a lot more vulnerable. part of that is ev's are really for a certain type of income in dividual. some bought it for elon musk, some didn't. invescop, rob waldner, fixed income chief fixed income strategist will be joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." the bond markets are now open. s&p futures sitting right at 3089.

we see a chase or a pullback? we are all waiting for noon, when president trump will speak at the economic club of new york. autos have a nice day in europe if we don't get those tariffs on eu cars. it is a stronger dollar story across the board. you have a weaker again, weaker euro. still seeing a bit of movement in the bond market, but holding steady at 25 basis points. he did have better sentiment from germany, but nonetheless, you still see that weaker euro. november isn't even half over, and it is already the worst month for fixed income investors since april 2018. the bloomberg barclays global aggregate index is down about 1.5%. joining us with more is rob income, invesco fixed chief fixed income strategist, and rob waldner of ubs is still with me. do you buy the dip? rob: you do not. what we had recently is

investors positioning for late cycle, for a growth slowed down, and i think that will come with the realization that this is very different than typical late cycle because there is no inflation. the fed is easy, and we are told they will stay easy until there is inflation. it is not your typical late cycle. in that environment, this could extend for a couple more years. in that environment, people who have been positioning for this late cycle drop in interest rates are having to reposition their portfolios across different asset classes. alix: so where they repositioning from and to? rob: this year so far, there's been outflows out of equity funds. equity fund flows have been negative basically all year. fixed income flows have been positive basically all year. that is very consistent with this kind of late cycle expectation. if we are going to continue for a while, that tells you there's a lot of money on the sidelines for equities, and a lot of people who have duration assets in the portfolio that don't need

to buy more of those. alix: in your world, what does that mean? stuart: active investors in a defensive portfolio, across as said investors have generally been overweight in, overweight overweight yen, overweight gold, overweight the u.s. 10 year. ralliedty market has through to its all-time highs. when you look at most other assets, we are back to where we were and of july, early august. when you look at equities, we have blown through that level. the defensive portfolio in the equity space is feeling even more pressure potentially than some other asset classes because we've blown through what was the resistance level previously. i would also point out the fed has cut rates, which is abnormal for this point in the cycle. when you look at the drivers for markets, equity is growing

stronger than it has all year, and the fed has gone from qt to now not qe. shrinking them balance sheet to money supplies ofwing, that says the risk recession has a position for the end of the cycle. stuart: the two big economic narratives have been a bottoming of global pmi's and the white knight status of the u.s. consumer. the pmi's heaven bottomed. we could argue about that, but if you squint well, they look pretty good. jobs data in the u.s. is very strong. you have the pbo see -- you have the pboc and others easing. this is a goldilocks scenario. the data which was the big risk sentiment has bottomed out. plus, you have money supply going for the system. is forcingt i think

people to look at their defensive portfolio and ask, am i positioned correctly for what this cycle might look like? rob: we agree. the data for the economy slowed over the last year, but now appear to have bottomed. that slowing was off of the fiscal rush in the u.s. we are back to potential in the 2%, 1%.mewhere around that is decent growth continuing to use resources. alix: this is manufacturing and all of the different countries. we are sort of bottomed here. where left do we have to rotate for a late cycle? to both of you guys. how much more selling in utilities, for example, or gold? stuart: but we thought was interesting last week, you had utilities down 3%, banks up to percent or 3%. if you took out the sectors and looked at growth for equities,

they were about sideways. what you are having at the sector level is a very powerful rotation. the question is, does it find its way to the single stock level? if it does, you will see active managers rotating out of these low vol leadership positions. we got a shot across the bow of that in early september. when you have uncertainty about the medium-term growth outlook, it is hard to get people out of this defensive portfolio. it seems now people are questioning that medium-term growth outlook. our view is that the first half of next year is going to show significant slowdown in the data. if that materializes, you are going to have people question it in a few months. if you don't, what you're seeing is a chase for a cycle that has been stretched a little bit to the future, potentially. stuart: in fixed income --rob: in fixed income, we have seen an asset like bank loans, lower credit quality, has really underperformed this year. things of duration and in higher

credit quality, you look at that spread, it is a very widespread right now from a yield perspective. it looks like a great trade. if investors start to reposition their portfolio, they might want to go back into these types of assets which have credit exposure, which should do ok in an extended late cycle, and out of the duration focused assets which had done very well because of the duration tailwind this year so far. alix: what you do with the ccc's andky, like high and leveraged loans? an asset class, that has underperformed this year. it's been a real laggard tipped period, but this is a where they can catch up. there's a lot of pockets there. idiosyncraticy asset class, see you can't just

buy across the board. but those lower quality credits should be supported by that lack of inflation, the fears of inflation dissipating. alix: and in terms of leverage loans as well, that is going to change? rob: it should outperform those duration focused assets, and our view. alix: so what is the risk? stuart, you mentioned a potential slowdown in the first half of 2020. what is going to do that? isart: our economists' view that that slowdown is almost baked in because of the tariffs put in place and the drag it is going to put on the economy. the question is how much of a slowdown we get, and does the market price that is transitory? or if you get a meaningful slow down does that get people a little spooked that the cumulative effect of tariffs is going to have a real risk on the economy? we will see. our base case is everything that has been announced and implement it will stay in place. obviously, that is a fluid

situation. a lot of investors are expecting/hoping that the to summer tariffs will be rolled back -- that the december tariffs will be rolled back instead of delayed. it all comes back to the data. if the data holds, particularly private payrolls, labor market, retail sales, it is hard to imagine you go into recession if those data points are holding pretty solid. that's our area of focus, much more on retail sales and employment data. if there's a meaningful weakness in that, it is hard to imagine us staying at all-time highs on the equity side. rob: we think the consumer will need to push the economy forward. on these big geopolitical risks, brexit, trade, it is hard to predict those, but in our view, no matter where you look, the markets have priced in a lot of risk. it's not like it's exogenous risk the market is not aware of. brexit looks to us like it is

tracking towards a better outcome, which means not a hard brexit. most likely a managed brexit. trade, certainly we've had a lot of good news on that in the near term. very hard to predict from day-to-day, but there's a lot priced into the market in our view. because it is priced in, it is probably less relevant for that outlook. so what do you do for em or european corporate credit? what you do with those kind of assets? rob: we savor some of those areas of european credit. the ecb is buying. the things that's happened over the last year and a half is that em currencies have really lagged. em credit in dollars has done well this year, especially higher-quality.

local interest rates come down, but currency is lagging. where we think the fed is going to stay easy and conditions are easy, there could be opportunity for em currencies to do better. was a big there downgrade of em growth last year. even the imf expects an uptick in growth in 2020, so that could be an area of investment, local currency em. ofx: all right, rob waldner invesco fixed income, stuart kaiser of ubs, thank you. we want to get an update on headlines about side the business world. sebastian salek is here with more. hong kong police warning that the city is on the brink of a total breakdown. monday's demonstrations led to about 260 arrests and left almost 100 50 people injured. president trump expected to delay imposing tariffs on european cars. the president said he would decide by the end of this month.

in return, the eu threatened to retaliate with tariffs on $39 billion of american goods. efforts by german automakers to highlight new investments in the u.s. have helped in negotiations. former president jimmy carter has been hospitalized in atlanta. he is undergoing surgery to relieve pressure on his brain. he's fallen ill at least three times this year. he is 95. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. salek.astian this is bloomberg. alix: coming up, could t-mobil'' s chief turnaround? on the bloomberg terminal, checkout tv go. you can watch us online, check out all the charts and graphics, interact with us directly. this is bloomberg. ♪

sebastian: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak." data visuals in the u.s. are stepping up scrutiny of google. the goal is to get a deeper understanding of google's business is and the dynamic of the markets it operates in. more than two states have opened an investigation into google over advertising practices. banks in europe see a new way to get around practical rules being set by brussels -- around capital rules being set by brussels. the european commission is holding a conference on the issue today. of asia'ses of two markets property

are diverging. hong kong has plunged to the bottom of the list after antigovernment protests. salek.astian that is your bloomberg business/. alix: we turnout -- business flash. alix: we turn now to wall street beat. first up, wework talking to t-mobile's ceo, one of the many candidates being considered. then wall street's very young unicorn. a startup worth $2.5 billion emerges not from silicon valley, credit. street world of and traders and bankers may see bonuses falling this year, so who's worse off? equity traders. joining me a sonali basak. did a really good job at t-mobile. he turned that company around in a big way. sonali: it is funny to think about, wework is going to be run

by two telecom executives. isething i was sitting about john leger global crossing. he really led them through some tough times. that can be kind of comparable to this experience. he does have a very curious personality. alix: channeling adam neumann. sonali: and many times, he's been called a cost cutter, a penny pincher. somebody to clamp down on some of these issues that wework is having, people are reacting pretty well for him to be the next person, not to mention he also has a strong relationship with masayoshi son. alix: because softbank has a stake in sprint. he could leave a lot of money on the table. sonali: he does have this big golden parachute, more than $50 million. alix: he gets paid by the

sprint-t-mobile merger first. sonali: right. when the deal was first announced, he was supposed to stay on board. it does seem like the two teams are creating a secession plan that is graceful. alix: somewhat in the softbank landscape. second-story.he basically, a wall street unicorn. what is this, worth $25 billion? sonali: people are taking big stakes in private equity firms. now that private equity firms have become so hotly valued, people are moving to direct lending firms. rush hourte credit rock was create -- rush owl rock was created by executives at blackrock. ,hey did this stakes sale thing sold the stakes. the biggest stakes sale business was recently raised, $9 billion, in the largest ever fund to take stake in firms just like this.

alix: interesting, and you mean direct lending firms? sonali: direct lending firms, private equity firms, hedge fund firms. but as we know, the hedge fund industry has a lot of problems these days, but direct lending is still hot. firms like owl rock compete directly with the bank. they are doing bigger deals. they recently signed onto a $1.6 billion deal, one of the largest ever of its kind. so the private equity firms are all working together in these private debt markets, and that is the opportunity here. alix: interesting. the same way we talk about private equities building up capital markets arms, or merging as a real competitor to banks in that way as well. sonali: they are seriously working altogether. in that deal, you had kkr, goldman, a lot of of the direct lenders as well. alix: worries about direct lending? the whole point is you go there because you might not get a limb somewhere else. -- you might not get a loan

somewhere else. sonali: this is that shadow banking that people are worried about. do they have enough capital to withhold the risks they are taking on? remember, they are not a bank. this is lp money coming in. but that doesn't mean they aren't necessarily edging to riskier parts of the capital structure that others are not willing to go into. alix: fair. if you have big people behind you, that might help you take on that risk. let's get to bonuses. we always get these stories towards the end of the year. who is getting hurt? sonali: equity traders are certainly getting the most hurt. i think winning is interesting also because investment bankers and advisory groups are supposed to be gaining a little bit. if you look at the jobs and associates estimates, hedge fund and private equity will be 0.5 and 1%.een it doesn't add up to me because investment bankers have had a tough year, but you know, maybe

we are not seeing -- we are seeing a disparity in the private capital universe that is keeping their bonus levels on par with the bankers. alix: i get hedge funds. i thought that's where all the money was going? sonali: something is a little weird to me. it is not super surprising that traders are going to be losing, but i said, what does your bonus pool look like? he said, listen, it's november. it's not december. he was trying to keep the troops working hard to the end of the year. alix: well, fair. he's not going to be, like, no bonuses. sonali: go home. alix: you have a lot of investors in cash right now because they're worried about december because last year's was so terrible. sonali: at least the last quarter was better than we thought it would be. the volatility is not going to be everybody on the sidelines. there is some risk on attitude now. alix: love the bonus stories. sonali basak, thank you very

much. in today's women of wall street, where we look at how women are shaping the world of finance, we focus on opportunity losses. the male-dominated finance industry is now missing out on $700 billion a year by big mooring women. according to management consultant t oliver wyman, the industry fails to listen to women or taelor wealth products wealthm -- or tailor products for them. you wonder at what point shareholders are going to want to get that money from insurers. coming up china needs a deal. the u.s. needs a deal. what is the macro view i had of president trump's speech? if you are heading into your car, tune into bloomberg radio, heard across the u.s. on siriusxm channel 119 and on the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time now for trader's take. joining me as vincent cignarella of the bloomberg audio squawk. earlier, you stay with what the algos do, but you seem optimistic on movement in phase one trade. vincent: i think it depends on trump today at the economic club. he's not going to be downbeat on this crowd. we seen sentiment numbers come out from germany, sentiment starting to pick up in the united states. we are starting to get some good momentum going. we've seen aggregate loan demand drop as a result of the trade were. september, thein imports dropped dramatically. that was basically when china called off the trade talks. aggregate loan demand falls

three months later, and that drops off. this is a situation where china basically needs to do a deal. the economy is sagging. i would expect he would be a little bit upbeat today. i think powell is going to be very pragmatic, but upbeat as well. something about the auto tariffs situation? i kind of would like to think he wants to keep everything on the back burner. he needs to do china, needs to do germany, needs to do usmca none of this plays well into next year, into the election if we don't keep the momentum going. alix: in your world, what is priced in? vincent: i don't know the lot is priced in. we've got some room to run in dollar yen. some room to run

a little bit in the dollar in general. if we see some room to run in the equity markets, they could catch a good tale when into the end of the year. alix: if you want to know what is happening moment by moment, . chandlup next hour, marc bannockburn. you're getting a nice dollar bid here. you would lower, euro lower, despite stabilization in the data. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ alix: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this tuesday,

november 12. let's take it right from the top. >> it is an important election with the rights of 4 million voters to respect and safeguard, but there is an issue of safety and order. alix: in hong kong, on of the day of police firing tear gas at protesters in the financial district. days of reallyo jarring images and clashes, especially here in the financial hub. this feels like a bit of an escalation. alix: authorities warned that the city's on the break of total breakdown. >> we are still relatively small in terms of the scope of things. alix: disney's battle with netflix officially underway. the company launched its disney+ streaming service this morning. >> the pivot won't come cheaply for walt disney company. they will spend billions of dollars every year, and don't inspect a breakeven until 2024. alix: fed chair -- vice chair

richard clarida discusses the advantages of the current framework. he spoke at an event in zurich. >> in advantage of our current framework over the makeup approach, it has provided a flex ability to assess a broad range of factors and information, and choosing policy actions. these actions can undo vary depending on economic circumstances to best achieve our goals. pres. trump: we make the deal we want. if it is not a great deal, i won't make it. alix: the markets listen closely when president trump speaks today at the new york economic club. >> the president could take the markets in any direction, and you can bet traders are going to be hanging onto every word. alix: investors wonder if the president will go off script and ,istress -- and discuss taxes drug prices, and every thing in between. in the markets, we are waiting for what is going to happen at noon. the question broadly, do you

stay in cash, or is it fear of missing out? you don't want to miss any rally for the end of the year. the dollar stronger on the day. some earnings trickling out syria -- earnings trickling out. .bs beating estimates revenue coming in stronger as well. where it wound up falling a little short was entertainment operating income and a year on year basis. shakeup comeceo all of that hiding -- all of that highlighting a cbs and viacom move together. chandler, is marc bannockburn global forex managing partner. what you most excited about on disney+? marc: i think it's got to be the old classic "no white. -- classic "no white -- classic

"snow white." alix: my daughter loves that one. arc: at the end of a five-week mb, now we arer back above 7.0. i think they are disenchanting. they are taking away the magic of the 7.0 level by letting the dollar go back around it. it is not a major devaluation. we are talking about a 3.5% move, which is very small compared to the other major currencies. alix: is your favorite dwarf happy? marc: i'm afraid so. [laughter] alix: staying on the broader market, are we looking at fear of missing out? investors moving back into the equity market after sitting on the sidelines most of this year, afraid of missing out on that rally. that's according to bank of america's monthly fund manager

survey, which found the expectations surge by a record at the start of november. cash levels plunged to the lowest since june 2013. joining us is art hogan, national securities chief market strategist. ?re you buying into it do you like it? art: not only is money coming back into the market, it's been a long time on the sidelines. bank of america merrill lynch has done a good job keeping abreast of this ever wake. the is more intriguing is markets broadening out. we are seeing a breakout in transports, some industrials. we are seeing the financials do significant better. as opposed to what we saw almost the entirety of this year, where it was just momentum stocks, we are starting to see some action in the middle. i think that is very healthy. investment is coming in at a time where the markets are at a healthier place. the last time we are at these high levels bulls -- the last time we were at these high-level, multiples were

higher. marc: there might be a lot more cash on the sideline waiting to come in? art: this is the beginning, not the middle. it's been a while. you have a lot of investors that saw what happened at the fourth quarter last year. at any point in time, it feels like this market is fragile. we are one tweet away from tragedy. we saw that in the month of may, a great example of, walking away from the trade negotiations and the market fell 2% to 3%. that will stay with us for a long time. investors are starting to warm up to the fact that the trade around -- the tone around trade is probably a bit better. earnings came in better than anticipated. the data seems to be more positive than we are giving the economy credit for. marc: we said this in the beginning, you are not concerned that we are at the late stage? that these are people coming to the new year's party close to midnight?

art: the problem with saying how much we are up this year is putting in the review how much we were down in fourth quarter. it's a great year, but not as spectacular as the year-to-date. i would rather look at where we are in terms of multiples, the forward multiple in the s&p 500 is reasonable. i don't think this is a runaway freight train. i think this is a point in time where investors are seeing things doing better than just momentum. a lot of those momentum names that carried most of this year have sold off precipitously. i think we are in a better place with markets broadening out. it's a good time for investors to be a bit more confident. alix: are you asking because you are worried, or that is just the narrative in the market? marc: i think everybody has turned bullish on the stock market, and it scares me. it scares me also that the fundamentals, i'm not sure it's justified. i'm not sure about ernie's guidance for the first quarter. i'm looking at the best for the fourth quarter.

-- about earnings guidance for the first quarter. a point inare at time where u.s.-china trade is going to at the very least become static, we get to a truce, whatever that looks like, a great deal of the uncertainty apex may be back c removed. this economy has been driven by consumer spending. start getting worse, we can start doing some hiring, invest in our business. that could release economic energy. i think that's what investors are anticipating right now. it is perhaps like at the end of the tunnel, where that hadn't been the case the last 12 months. alix: do you not look at it like that? you can look at the same data and see two things. it could literally be the exact same chart. marc: to me, i look at the same things and say, well, this is

the longest bid cycle in u.s. history. it is not a time where businesses are going to be spending more money. despite some decent numbers from the german conscience survey, still looking at europe at 1%, the possibility we learned this week that the german economy, despite negative interest rates, fell into recession, and japan hit with a typhoon and a tax increase, they also look like they. are slowing. the latest data from china -- but they are slowing. the latest data from china still looks like they are slumming at 6%. -- they are slowing at 6%. alix: but can't you find the counter to that? maybe it is priced in, that is more backward looking. you get stimulus now from japan to offset the taxes, and the pboc helping aggregate loan demand. marc: i think that is what makes the market smart right now. alix: i think you like grumpy, actually, not the happy dwarf. [laughter] art: i think the euro zone has

come around to the fact that monetary policy is not working. there's going to be a push in the next 12 months for fiscal policy, which is what they've desperately needed for a while. i think all of those things you just talked about or what is going on in trade. are we going to put tariffs on autos? remove that uncertainty, and i think that releases economic energy. that is something we haven't seen for the better part of. two years. i think there's more good news -- better part of two years. i think there's more good news than bad news in front of us. i think the fed is more reasonable in singing they are at neutral on rates -- in thinking they are at neutral on rates. it's 180 degrees from where we were this time 12 months ago. alix: i want to get your take on dividend yield versus where we are in the bond market. we talk about the selloff in rates, how high it can go. the s&p dividend yield is now below the 10 year treasury.

when it is above it, you've got to go by equities. equities. to go buy at some point, do you get nervous? is there going to be too much of a shift? chart.at is such a great we don't talk about it enough. if we were to have this conversation in a normal rate environment, we would never be talking about this. if you were to ask me five years ago, at what yield on the u.s. 10 year does money get pulled out of equity markets because it is so attractive, certainly it is not someone with a 2% or 3% handle. for me, the argument is always been, where can i get a modicum of return? it is not the u.s. 10 year right now. dividend yield on the s&p 500 has bounced back and forth to what should have been a buy signal.

but where people say, hey, wait a minute, i can get 2% on my money for 10 years? i'm getting out of equities right now. it just doesn't make any sense. it used to make sense where you get to 4% or 5%. equity risk premiums are just not there right now. marc: assuming the bullish outlook, what are the key sectors to be looking at? art: there are three things i think you can focus on. this is just starting to play out in the third quarter earnings season. we have a yield curve which is not flat anymore, net interest margins that are suboptimal, but loan demand from every bank the reports in this quarter has been spectacular. that works its way out all the way out to the regionals in super regionals, so the financial sector is doing a lot better. we are excited about that. we think that his early innings in terms of a driver. thee's an assumption that economy is going to pick up pace next year, not slow down.

in the third, it is going to be controversial, i think you could look at health care right now, agnostic to what is going on in the election cycle, and to out that noise we hear every four years when someone run for president has those -- for president and says we are going to cut prices on health care because it just never happens. it is very difficult to do. clinton never got anything done. obama took into his second term to get something done. i think the health care sector, away from facilities, but tech and pharma look extremely good here. alix: we will get more on this with grumpy and happy. art hogan f national securities will be sticking with us. coming up, we dig a look at how small-cap companies are faring gannon, royce funds cio. this is bloomberg.

♪ cio. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: small business optimism rebounding from a six-month low, according to the latest data from the nfib. it shows small business owners are looking at more comp. joining us to discuss is francis gannon, royce funds co-cio. we were just having a fascinating conversation about small caps. why do you think we are going to see a rally in small caps? francis: one of the unique things about the market is what happens in the third quarter. i don't think people give it that much credence. you saw major reversals in our market, from growth to value, large to small, and cyclical away from defensive. that took place august 27 of this past year and continued. ironically enough, it happened

in an upmarket, which is usually unusual. from our perspective, the small-cap market, i think what you are seeing in general today, it was interesting listening to you all before, i think there's a norm is amount of capital concentrated in the larger end of the market today. there's enormous opportunity in what is left behind in the small-cap market, for a variety of reasons. therein lies our opportunity. even with the muted economic background we might be in right now. art: that bubble has always been with us to a certain extent. it has always been an outsize driver of performance. how much more now that historically? francis: at the end of the third quarter this year, the top names in the s&p 500 accounted for $2 trillion of market capitalization versus about $2.2 trillion for the whole russell 2000. that percentage ratios typically

runs somewhere around 57% back in time. right now it is in the high 90's. if the economy tends to pick up a little here, which i think, if you have an accommodative fed and a lot of the bad stuff is priced in domestically, the small caps have a chance to have a nice run. alix: we have an interesting note out from bloomberg intelligence, looking at the russell 2000 versus the twos-tens spread. we are seeing a bit of divergence. the ism really isn't going anywhere, but the curve is picking up in the russell 2000 is picking up. do you need to see the ism get better, or just stabilize, to see that performance? francis: we just did a study on the ism and what happens in these particular moments, when the ism is where it is from a contracting standpoint, and having an accommodative federal reserve. you're getting into the seasonal aspect of the market in general. we can see that some all caps nextquite well over the

one year period. so it is an interesting time for us right now. marc: this goes in line with what you were saying before. small caps begin purchase baiting in a bigger way. art: i think the point you make is a very good one. what happened in august, all of a sudden we said we don't need just momentum or just defensive. i think what happened was valuations. when you look at those, earnings were in low single digits. it was throwing off yields that were historically low. to the other side of your point, that large cap bubble was happening in a broader way -- a broad array of software names come security. i'm not going to get fired for owning this right now because it is working. i think the reverse is happening now, and i think it is rationalizing. i think the tipping point was wework didn't make it. everybody said, wait a minute, you can't have revenue growth and no earnings.

investors said, if investors are shifting away from that, looking at valuations here -- francis: i think it would also write around the time that all the attorneys general in the united states talked about regulating these technology companies, which is interesting. the point i think is even more important, to build on what you were saying, is the idea that innovation is not the sole problem of these mega cap companies. there's enormous innovation in the united states today, as well as middle and small cup companies not recognized in the market right now. if any of that market cap comes out from a momentum standpoint and goes into these incredibly innovative businesses, small-cap has a real shot. alix: can those small caps as a group rally without energy? francis: that's a good question. they have of late, the past several years. energy has been an interesting area of the market.

is not an area we have a lot of exposure to as a firm. if energy starts to participate, but more importantly, if financials start to participate, we see the small-cap role do a little better. there are certain things about the small-cap space. the russell 2000 is comprised of 30% of those companies that make of 37% ofs now -- those companies that make no earnings now. if you get this conversation turning towards companies that are actually profitable, that make money, that have cash flow, the other part of the market is going to be quite powerful, and i think people have forgotten about that. art: i think that's a great question. the energy component in the s&p 500 is much smaller. the russell 2000 is a little larger, but the largest component is financials. i think that is going to be one of the drivers. alix: 26% in financials, 15% in health care. you can give us specific names, one of your top toothpicks in this -- specific names.

what are your top two picks in the space? francis: economically since his businesses, as we've had to deal with tariff talk, people forget in the small-cap space, we've got two 25% plus corrections within the past five years. most recent,most recent, the for of last year. so the tone has changed in the market. if you do see the shift away from defensive area cyclicals, defensive's should be doing much better. we shift to companies like quaker chemicals, which happens to be reporting after the close this evening. those are the types of businesses that are innovative in their space, and the market is not recognizing the value. marc: do you think small to medium-size businesses need stronger growth? francis: what is interesting, we have many management teams come for our office. we ask them specifically, do you

see recession on the horizon? the answer is no. are cautiously optimistic about growth and outlook for the market. if growth picks up, it will clearly benefit them. but the better managed businesses, any company that has cash flow, who's actually going to have good earnings growth, the earnings season for us so far has been quite good, surprisingly so. i think people are missing that point as well. if we add any growth, it will be quite good. alix: thank you so much. francis gannon, rose funds co. cio. art hogan and marc chandler will be sticking with me. coming up, on the break total breakdown. it's how hong kong police described the situation in the territory. more next. this is bloomberg. ♪

sebastian: this is "bloomberg

daybreak." dean foods has filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy reorganization. the company is in advanced talks with dairy farmers of america about a potential sale. dean foods has been losing money since it lost its biggest customer, walmart. americans have been tricking less cow milk and competition has squeezed margins. nissan still struggling to get back on track after the loss of former chair lynn -- former chairman carlos ghosn. the company says it is now undersized on a payout. two of asia's hottest property market are diverging. singapore is now her neck -- is now ranked number one for property outlooks, and hong kong has been shrinking. that is your bloomberg businessflash. alix: what do you make of hong

kong? what are the longer-term ramifications in your world of this? marc: when we leave aside the politics, as a very important financial center for asia, many of us expected that over time, they would bring that initial center to shanghai. i think they had plans to do this, and it was over many years, but i think the demonstrations and hong kong are going to accelerate this. fewer banks, fewer financial centers. there's competition for the next financial center in asia besides shanghai. singapore. tokyo is going to try to make a bid for other aspects. alix: interesting. much more to come on that, no doubt. marc is sticking with me. president trump speaking at noon. this is bloomberg. ♪

this isan: -- alix: s&pomberg daybreak." futures at 3088.

do you stay into cash or run into equities and a fear of running out? we may not get tariffs on e.u. cars. up one dollar into the trump speech is the trade of the morning, and the curve goes nowhere in the u.s. the two biggest players in the u.s. economy are taking the stage today, president trump speaking at the u.s. economic club and jay powell tomorrow testifying on capitol hill. richard clarida discussed monetary policy and bond yields. richard: an advantage of our current framework has provided the committee with the flexibility to assess a broad range of factors and information in choosing policy actions, and these can and do vary in terms economic circumstances to

achieve our goals. alix: joining us is michael hogan,peggy collins, art and marc chandler. i will start with the first thing with president trump, you will be going to the lunch and we will be watching it. walk us through how your team is watching it. peggy: first up, trade. are we closer to reaching a deal with china in terms of a phase i deal? have we reached a signing agreement? the next is how the president will approach the economy. will he focus on the strong jobs report, or where will he focused investors? minds. >> he has a hostile audience tonight and that his big economic programs, tariffs, not be a favorable issue.

michael: if i may quote the president, record stock market and i cut your taxes. >> criticism of the federal reserve, the idea of negative rates in the u.s., these will not be pondered in this audience. he will be a cheerleader for the economy but that is not strong for this audience. >> the environment he will be in today is in large part against what he thinks in terms of trade policy. asis so stuck in his script billions of dollars are coming into the treasury and china is paying for it. that is when the world will say, this is not true and that is not how this works. if he can stay on teleprompter and on script and not go to his usual, this is great, trade wars are good, then we could get positive news. the logic around his team has actually worked into a place

where they would like to get this phase one deal done. they choreographed good news in front of an election cycle and this is the good news. it depends on the last person he talks to before he gets in. michael: i am willing to bet he does not stick to the script. the two possible bits of news today could be if he announces a china deal. alix: more than phase i? michael: just phase one, that it will happen. two, that he will try to get passed another tax cut next year, those things, depending how strong he is on the phase one deal, could have more leg with the market. whereise, it is a thing you trade quickly and it goes away because of more noise. alix: how, if he talks about the fed, can you talk about a strong economy and say the fed has to cut?

how do you wrap that in? michael: we have never accused donald trump of being consistent in his thinking. if you follow his argument, it is the greatest economy in history but would be greater if the fed would cut interest rates below zero. economists do not agree. alix: there is the point of a catalyst. wrote, thetrategist stock market will remain stuck in fundamental purgatory which investors continue to debate when the economic cycle will end and what will end it, meaning there is no catalyst on the upside or downside. how are people looking at it? peggy: do we see a catalyst? for this year, the catalyst for downturn has been uncertainty around trade, the tariffs, how much is it affecting manufacturing, hiring, and

business affected -- bigness -- business investment in the u.s.? business has pulled back in tight.nd hiring is even though there is uncertainty, i am not going to cut jobs because i don't know if i can find the talon i need if things swing the other direction. i am not sure trump sees himself walking into a room where the audience will be negative or hostile to him. i think he takes credit for the economy where it is, and is likely to say the fed listened to me, we cut rates, we should do more. he sees himself as the driver of the economy. art: the point about trade being a catalyst and cap ask not happening, is -- capex not happening is a big point. i think that will be the incentive, the next catalyst

that is not being mentioned. marc: i worry. i don't want to be too gloomy. alix: you can be grumpy. i am concerned about what the president thinks he is doing and what the audience will take away from it, they do not give economict for the recovery which is 10 years in the making. the treasury has taken in $70 billion in tariffs but it is us who are paying for, and people in the room know that. michael: i think most of the people in the room on the trading desks are watching. before,all this stuff so does it have a lasting impact? that is the question. he will have to say something substantive because tomorrow we are talking about something else otherwise. alix: i wonder tomorrow how much you get glass half-full/half-empty if we get a

trade deal, but i will not roll block -- rollback tariffs. great, what does that mean? art: the important part is what does that mean? we are not escalating. alix: we are good enough, but not better. marc: the market has been able to -- art: the market has been able to come hartman allies straight -- compartmentalize trade. are inthe things that the back of your mind, if we get to a phase i deal, that means we are standing steel -- still. we are static, not dynamic. marc: i think we are static on one issue, but earlier this week or last week, the commerce department accuses china of dumping ceramic tiles in the u.s., so we slept 300% tariffs tariffs on dutch 300%

tariffs on another set of companies. what the chinese call fighting and talking. michael: that is the pattern of this administration, there is no telling what is coming next. they want to make sure that things do not get worse, but you make a good point. i am calling this -- i will pivot to jay powell tomorrow -- the fed will be in good enough mode. if you take a look at the terminal chart i brought in, the fed funds rate is now below estimates of the neutral rate. we are mildly accommodative and that is good enough. 1.7%, goodon is enough. certainly the unemployment rate, 3.6% is good enough. the fed wants to step back and say, things are good enough, we

don't need to take action. peggy: the fed has made it very clear, powell himself, that what we need now because we are in a good place or good enough, immaterial reassessment in order to change their tact. that is clear signals to investors and to your point, they are saying we have taken some action, it has worked, we have seen movement in housing to the positive side and the economy is in a good place so we are holding steady. marc: i don't think the market believes this. they are cut -- pricing in another 25 basis point cut next year. alix: that is different than three. marc: that is different than mission accomplished. michael: that is december next year. i pulled this up, june of next year. you can see how the idea of no change, the blue line, has

crossed the red line of a cut. if jay powell leaves that graph the same way tomorrow after his testimony, he will be happy. alix: that was a vibrant conversation. mckee, and peggy collins. stay with bloomberg today. we will have president trump's comments at the economic club of new york. we want to give you an update on what is making headlines outside of the business world. sebastian: police in hong kong worn the city is on the brink of a total breakdown. they battled with protesters for the second straight day. mondays protests led to 200 pedros and left -- sanchez is forming a coalition to break the political deadlock. the social lyrical -- socialis

party will team up with -- it is the end of an era on prime time tv. sean spicer has been eliminated from abc's dancing with the stars after just eight weeks. he had enough fans to make him one of the final six contestants. president trump saluted him on twitter. that is your global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am sebastian salek. this is bloomberg. alix: nothing will replace that amazing lime green outfit. coming up, it is finally here, disney plus launches. a whole new world of streaming wars. pj solomon, head of media and tech services on today's bottom line. and the chartss

we have shown throughout the show on g tv . this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ this is bloomberg daybreak. state officials in the u.s. are stepping up their scrutiny of google over antitrust issues. they met with outside experts to get a greater understanding of googles business and the markets it operates in. the initial investigation is on advertising practices. banks can argue they are too weak bank to comply with steps. deutsche bank would need to raise capital to meet standards.

they are holding a conference on the issue today. burger king started offering its t-free hamburger. the whopper is being sold at more than 2500 burger king's in 25 countries. that is your bloomberg business flash. line,time now for bottom three companies worth watching. i am looking at european tech companies. both of them are up. they have beat and a raise. they supply apple, so is there a positive readthrough to apple sales and the iphone 11? you are watching carbo ceramics. been watching the shale sector in the u.s. because it is the key to business investment. here's a company that provides the sale the fractures use.

-- reportedrted they lost about half their value. this is showing us that what we anticipated was the fragmentation in the shale sector is coming to an end. there will be rationalization through emergency acquisitions and failures, and this is one of the first signs along with the decline in the rig count. it shows that growth may be slowing. alix: i love that you brought in shale. a company we are looking at is disney, out with its long-awaited streaming service disney plus. joining us is mark boidman. how transformative will this be torn not? transformative.

if you think about how cable evolved to streaming, as more and more companies migrate to streaming and you evolve consumers from cable tv over to streaming. alix: are we going to reach saturation where i don't want to pay $15 for netflix or five dollars or four dollars? who wins and loses? mark: the consumer is saying, i am paying for cable and will evolve into streaming. as more and more people cut the cord, they have more cash flow to say, i will subscribe to more streaming channels, and streaming is much more flexible. it is what networks -- netflix has been doing. this sounds exciting for the rise of the consumer no longer being a slave to the tv schedule, but what is it mean for the socialization? i think about this book, the

idea that we have lost public socialization. if people got there socialization watching tv and we lose the social trust to build a civic society, does streaming take it a step further? alix: you cannot connect what you're watching and talk about it. mark: that is the opportunity, to create a dialogue where you are watching a lot of shows, you are streaming. it is something you can talk about by the water cooler or at a bar. streaming is something that is so unique because it is anytime, anywhere. alix: what about content spend? where are we going forward? disney can repurpose their stuff. they they can -- mark: can, but they will have to come up with new stuff. launching, the

expectation is next year they will have 7500. the scale of netflix is significant so disney plus has a lot of work to do in terms of original programming. disney has a lot of high rated content, so the question, is it quality or quantity? bringing back are the marvel superheroes? you: clearly that is why buy it. the competition of your current library versus making new stuff versus taking the marvel universe and making new episodes , they are not apples to apples if you measure netflix to disney. mark: netflix has been quite bold, spending $15 billion in 2019 on content. his knee plus will innovate and do new things, -- disney plus will innovate and do net -- new things, but netflix brings you

everything whereas disney plus tends to be focused on children. that being said, marvel, disney has invested in content for a wider audience. alix: what pace of the cord cutting can we see? mark: this will accelerate it, and it benefits netflix. it will convince a lot of people who say, i will keep my pay-tv subscription because i need tv, but as more content migrates to netflix, it will migrate -- it will benefit them. marc: people can have tv shows when they want to see them. alix: have you cut the cord? marc: yes. alix: i did a few years ago. apple wants to sell services, amazon wants you to buy amazon prime, netflix wants you to get their content.

does that matter how to strategize? marc: it absolutely matters. if you think about it, the opportunity is to get into the apple ecosystem. you buy an apple product, sign up for subscription services, surround the consumer. same for amazon. it is about one and two day shipping. alix: if we look at content in the next frontier, what do they all start to compete on? mark: a couple of things. it is password sharing, to bring people onto their networks. it is an uncomfortable balance for some of these ceos, and they address password sharing. how will the consumer have so much streaming, how will they pay for this? developing and trying new content. netflix is probably ok with you heading off your password for someone to try it and once they have tried it, maybe they can

subscribe longer-term. alix: really appreciate it, mark boidman, and marc chandler, thank you for joining us. marc: always a pleasure. alix: great to spend the hour with you. cvs shares wavering in premarket. we will look at the resistance level the market -- they could hit today. turn into bloomberg radio across the u.s. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ --x: though maloney joins bell maloney joins me now. boeing.looking at today,own a little bit but it failed the two day moving average yesterday and 368,

another resistance level. if we can break out above there, the stock is in this massive trading range since the mass selloff. alix: advanced auto parts reported this morning, 200 day, what do you see? -- bill: downnd around 6%. below 104, you have a long term support zone around 150. alix: how wide is that trading range? bill: 180 at the top of the trading range, and 150. alix: cvs coming out with earnings. -- cbs coming out. it is all about the cbs-viacom merger. back if the market rallies

, youryour december lows long-term support zone, 35 to 3850 dates back to 2015. alix: bill maloney, thank you so much, getting you set up for your technical trades. coming up on "the open" with jonathan ferro, lisa shalett. it is steady as she goes as we wait for president trump to begin speaking at 12:00 p.m. dollars and yields go nowhere. the question is what he says about cars and tariffs. noon. that and more, at ♪

,onathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide, in jonathan ferro. now.open" starts ♪

coming up, equities trading wars, investors looking for clarity on trade policy. president trump taking center stage, delivering an address at the economic club of new york as the united states is expected to delay a call on european autos tariffs. good morning. equities going absolutely nowhere on the s&p 500, dead flat. stronger dollar broadly in g10. treasuries reopened following veterans day, yield on the 10 year 1.93. donald trump taking center stage. mentioned anything about progress with respect to china? >> he is willing to take this phase one deal. >> we are hoping for easier conditions with respect to trade. >> rollback on