that. been beyond pretty much well over half of the gains made by the rest of world equities since jackson hole which is when the u.s., half of that has been given up since november 5. perhaps this is a good time to perhaps this is the america first trade coming back to the fore. pointne: less than two move once again on the s&p 500. joe: certainly quiet. scarlet: having said that, the nasdaq is at a new high. any gain at this point with been a record high. the s&p 500 is within points of a record high. caroline: let's dive deeper into the action and get the excitement that happened below the indexes. abigail: it is interesting that you talk about excitement

because stocks may be barely moving but as joe was saying, bonds are moving in a big way. 10 year yield and treasury note back to october. while stocks are drifting on these record highs, we have a big rally for bonds. , a big bond bull says if it goes beyond this trendline in yellow, you would continue to see bonds selloff. bondecent pullback for yields, it is right on that line. stillnow, this chart may point to a move higher for yields. mike: who says there is no yield left to be found anywhere? check out this exchange traded fund, an etf that tracks limited

partnerships in the energy spaces. it has really gotten hammered since its high. caused the yield to jump above 10% for the first time since 2019. reducedan etf that has payouts pretty significantly, almost 9% over the past three years. still, that double digit yield proves to be a good entry point. hit int time it was 2018. the caveat in 2017, when oil prices dipped. the yield was above 20%. taylor, obviously, whether this 10% yield is too good to be true or not depends on what happens with oil.

if you believe oil is range bound or headed higher, that is a pretty juicy looking yield. it would not be too surprising to see those payouts get cut further. wanted to touch on something that luke was talking about at the beginning of the hour, where the consumer is still relatively strong despite some of the week retail data today. tomorrow, according to the bankers association. if you take a look at a chart i am showing in my terminal, in blue, inverse of yields, so that rising blue line is falling yields. it has been pretty steady at 3.7%. it should give more into the holiday season.

with lower rates continuing, should bode well for refinancing applications and perhaps more cash for the consumer as we head into the holiday season. scarlet: we have some news on suntrust. bb&tsuntrust merger -- -suntrust merger says it has been approved. the fed says it will not object to the capital plan. they do require enforcement action. they have sanctioned suntrust past violations. they have to divest 30 branches as well as deposits as part of this merger. the bottom line is that this is a deal that has been okayed by the united states central bank. caroline: still with us, mona bloomberg's luke

kawa. if we are going to get the confirmation, the earnings confirmation to breakout higher, is it the banks that finally get some love? mona: i think the cyclical trade would have room to run if we get theirmation that pmi's in u.s. and abroad are bottoming. about 45% of that index is cyclically oriented. first about 20, 20 5% on the s&p. europeans, the global trade have room to run. we continue to like a barbell approach. we would rotate from defensive to cyclical. joe: before the bell, we were talking about the fact that we have seen a bit of a bid reemerge in safe havens, treasury yields. how much of a role could that still be playing in portfolios?

is its time to buy or going to go higher? mona: i think generally safe havens should be a part of every portfolio. nice to have some of those sectors in your portfolio. interestingly, we remain bullish or positive on gold still as well, another safe haven that continues to do well. nice to have as global central banks continue to ease. generally, we would say yes. in terms of 10 year yields come at this range, 180, we think the potential to move downwards a little bit but we think the 170, 2% range is intact. flatet: as we marvel at the s&p 500 has been, what do you see with volatility? amy from silverman was telling us earlier that if you go out on

the futures curve, there is still quite a bit of volatility that people are pricing in down the road. luke: i fully agree with that and make the larger point that volatility is lower now than september 2018 or the january 2018 market peaks. the vix is higher. the tangoe at the front of the curve, bigger than it was then. the back of the curve, much higher than it was then. all of this talk about a record vix short signals complacency, not at all. that is not what it appears to be saying. caroline: in terms of complacency, we have not brought up the so-called phase i deal. if we don't get it, what is the risk? i think there is a lot being priced in. it is interesting, president

trump saying today that in fact he would raise tariffs further. that is the real risk. i think what markets have been pricing is perhaps we have reached an and -- reached an end. if we return to the environment where there is potential for tariff escalation, i think we see that risk reemerge. obviously, optimism over the trade war something that has been helping the markets. also the view that data has been a little bit better than people expected two months ago. how much does the fed deserve credit? is it part of what we are seeing in terms of this trough or rebounding? the cuts we saw earlier in the year. luke: i almost think you could credit the hikes just for causing the risk off sentiment. the fed has changed its tune on this. recently, if you asked jerome

powell, he really attributed the big rally and their relation to -- your view of the u.s. really can't diverge too much from the rest of the world. -- it definitely helps in .erms of financial conditions definitely give the fed some credit. scarlet: when did you think when you saw the headlines that president trump asked jay powell to go over to the white house? think it was noble of jerome powell to accept this invitation. it is a tough situation to be in. i do think he has been consistent in his view that he has been independent and they will act in the best interest of the economy. i also think president trump

should be thankful that they are not only implementing these rate cuts but they are increasing the balance sheet once again which i do think has been supportive of risk assets globally. thinkquidity system, i that helps. caroline: what are you looking out for for the rest of the week? mona: i would say that pmi number, even though it is market pmi, could be an indicator of what's to come. scarlet: we are still pretty tentative when it comes to the outlook. mona mahajan, allie youngs strategist, and thanks to luke kawa. coming up, we will be talking to steve bullock about the race for 2020. this is bloomberg. ♪

caroline: we are live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york here is a snapshot of how we held record highs for fornasdaq but slight losses the other benchmarks. joe: the question is, "what'd you miss?" caroline: hong kong, further demonstrations, as washington takes notice. protest despite warnings from mainland china. week results from home depot and about these doubts american consumer with black friday around the corner. racing for the white house.

the candidates keep changing. we have one democrat nominee hopeful, steve bullock. first, the protesters in hong kong calling for further demonstrations on wednesday while in washington, the senate is expected to pass legislation supporting the protests. let's get the first take from the head of chinese and northeast asia coverage in eurasia group. you have just come back. what is the sentiment like? >> the mood is negative. that does not necessarily mean that people are fearful of imminent crackdown by beijing. i still think there is a fairly high bar for that. political situation is fluid, the security situation is fluid. maybe evenoncern, medium-term, that hong kong's future role given the situation.

joe: in terms of the u.s.-china relationship, we have the senate debating a measure that would condemn what is going on in hong kong and voiced support for the protesters. is there a risk that the two issues intersect, trade and hong kong, and derail or in some way complicate the trade negotiations? >> i thing the risk is there. president will probably sign it because it will have a vetoproof maneuver -- vetoproof majority. the bill itself probably will not disrupt the negotiations. the administration has a lot of wiggle room in terms of how to interpret the bill and follow-up on it. the danger is if the political situation in hong kong worsens, then the administration will be backed into a corner in terms of

holding his fire on hong kong. this could easily become an , ablethat, if it worsens make it that much harder for this phase i deal to be finalized. romaine: if the u.s. is not willing to play that role of pushing back, are there any other countries that could fill that role? has -- the u.k. has a special obligation to hong kong given that it used to be a u.k. territory but the u.s., it will be a noticeable silence if the u.s. does not speak up. if president trump does not speak up, you will hear more calls from congress. caroline: thus far, beijing has, as you have said, shown restraint. .hey have left it to hong kong why has president xi not acted more?

>> i think there are financial risks in terms of the stability of hong kong, there is the diplomatic/, and then there is this practical consideration. in the risk of stepping into a quagmire that is hard to de-escalate. for now, i think beijing is perfectly content to have the hong kong police force be the front end of this and it is focused more on the long game, which is looking to bring hong kong to order, both in a physical security sense and also strengthening some of the legal authority that beijing has over hong kong. that looks like the next effort. joe: there are a lot of critics obviously of the president's approach. i think because of the trade war and what is happening in hong kong but there is a level of

discussion, for example treatment of the muslim minority , that you just did not hear about much before. there is a lot of criticism and human rights abuses. you have senator marco rubio calling for entities in the u.s. to divest from china exposure. even if the trade war does get degree over what the next months or years could they change the relationship with china? for the nexttion year is that we will probably get to a phase i. then the action will shift to all of these foreign policy and security issues. it may not come from robert lighthizer, but more from the white house, because they are determined to confront beijing. tariffs,n trade,

doesn't mean we will see a slowdown against actions from chinese technology companies, actions on the trade front. those pressures will weigh on the sustainability. romaine: can we talk about maybe what the resolution could be? there seemed to be a sentiment that this was sort of hong kong united or as united as you could be in a society like that. i am starting to get the sense now that this is not necessarily the case? >> the political crisis, had it in addressed in june, we might have seen an easy resolution. now there are deep fissures in hong kong society and the identity relative to the mainland. it will be difficult to see reconciliation. the next few weeks are likely to be critical. we are at the moment right now where some of the support for the protesters has declined as people become worried about the

level of violence. the challenge right now for the hong kong authorities is, can they find some way to diffuse tensions. it is going to be very difficult. they have not handled this well. they have misread a lot of the political signals. romaine: we are always going to turn to michael hirson. of thanks to michael hirson the eurasia group. coming up, home depot and kohl's both cutting their forecast. we will discuss why their outlooks are raising concerns about consumer strength heading into the holiday season. this is bloomberg. ♪

joe: new retail outlets have

translated into some market jitters as we look ahead to that holiday season. lowering its growth outlook can timing just -- outlook for the second time in just months. bloomberg retail reporter matt townsend joining us now. ugly day for retail beyond home depot. kohl's getting slammed. -specific company story, a retail story, or economic story? let's start with home depot. are you able to clearly tie this to things that

what the company is doing? matthew: the analyst community, they have taken a line that said, we believe that. there is a lot of defense of the home depot stock among the analysts. they are a home improvement company, which is basically the strength of the consumer economy. they have had three straight quarters where they have missed topline sales estimates. we don't know distinctly that this is a problem with the consumer but if you are a investor and see this three quarters in a row, that raises red flags people. -- does does this raids this raise red flags about their management? we also saw a earnings from kohl's. a lot of the issues were not about systemic issues in the economy and more of the fact, if you are going to be a business where i drop off my amazon return, that might not be the path to profitability. or is there something we can extrapolate about the broader economy? at this point, it is hard to make a big take away.

's results, walmart they were fine. play.x, a value tjx, walmart, some of these other companies have done well. is discussion that maybe they are trading down and that has been a problem with department stores for a long time. if the consumer economy is in trouble, that means the overall economy is in trouble. caroline: it will be interesting to see if they managed to be more sustainable. who, of the retailers this week, should we be thinking more of potentially. think lowe's is a perfect example. they have been in a turnaround

and unlike home depot they have had two really good quarters this year. if they put up a quarter that disappoints. that might lowe's say some thing. joe: macy's plunging 11% because their website got hacked? >> it is part data breach, part kohl's had a backorder. people selling off retail today. in general, it is the kind of macy's does not need right now. .hey are struggling a hack is causing people to say, maybe i will shop at amazon. romaine: i bought a showerhead at home depot. did you know there is a home depot right around the corner from our bloomberg world headquarters. caroline: romaine is long home depot in the area of

showerheads, it would seem. matt townsend, thank you. let's get a quick check on the latest business flash headlines. sayseo says -- of visa consumers are not slowing down. causingtwo things are the increase. one is smaller items. a lot of people using tap and pay. boeing building momentum for when it's grounded 737 max jet returns to the sky. astana signed a letter of intent. plus, a customer has ordered 20 of them. the orders total more than $6 billion at list prices. coming up, montana governor steve bullock will not be on the democratic debate stage tomorrow night but instead he is here with us. path to thes a

presidency. this is bloomberg. ♪

'mark: the house has voted to pass a four-week spending bill to avoid a government shutdown that would have kicked in later this week. the stopgap will extend funding through december 20 this paves the way for the military to receive a 3.1% pay increase and allows the census bureau to spend the money it needs to prepare for the 2020 headcount. alexander nmo -- vindman today told the impeachment hearing of what he described as the power disparity between president trump and

ukrainian president zelensky, he trump's request for investigation into a rival as a demand. it was. vindman: inappropriate, improper for the president to demand an investigation into a political opponent, especially foreign rest --ere there is where there is at best dubious belief that this is a nonpartisan investigation. mark: he added, when a senior tells you -- asks you to do something, it is not taken as a request, it is taken as an order. iranovernment protests in are raising the question if the trump administration's pressure is starting to work. iran raised the price of

gasoline. that led to the internet blocked and people being killed. pulled out of the nuclear deal and re-economic sanctions. new york has joined the ranks of states suing the biggest e-cigarette manufacturers which have allegedly contributed to 42 deaths and thousands of injuries nationwide. ,> there is no doubt that juul the largest e-cigarette company, has caused this addiction. in fact, they hold 70% of the market. attorney general james accused juul of taking a page from big tobacco's playbook. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am. this is bloomberg. joe: he is the only sitting

governor in the 2020 residential race. that is a position that used to be a springboard to the white house. joining us now, man time governor -- montana governor steve bullock. he will not be on the debate stage but he is here at this hour. gov. bullock: there is no better place to be than right here. romaine: let's get down to it. you are a democrat, elected twice in a state that is traditionally republican. a lot of people think that is sort of a signal that you can sway voters. is the propensity for what voters did twice in montana, does that translate to the other states? gov. bullock: i was the only democrat in the country to win a statewide election in a state that trump won.

it wasn't by changing the values i hold. at the end of the day, this election is about math. if we cannot win places back like a chicken, wisconsin, pennsylvania. somebody that governed used to matter, executive experience. do think i have something really unique. joe: obviously, as romaine mentioned, you are not making the debate tomorrow night. race oryou still in the what is your goal and what are you hoping to accomplish either in terms of winning or what issues you would like to raise? gov. bullock: it has always been the early states that take a big field and narrow it down. at fourry in 2004 was

points before the iowa caucus. i have been spending a lot of time in iowa. -- in montana, we connect urban and rural. how you punch your ticket through this is doing fairly well in iowa. caroline: does a centrist viewpoint punch through in iowa? at the moment, some of the leading candidates in the democrat field are not winning by being centrist? gov. bullock: i have made more progress than any of the senators when it comes to health care, education, kicking dark money out of our elections. there was a new york times article that was a big wake-up call, which said that when we

look at those states that we need to win, it becomes a lot more difficult. we can have a diversity of opinion within the democratic party. what i see time and time again, people are not asking for everything free. they are not asking for the complete disruption. what they want is a fair shot. they want to know that you work hard and have a fair shot at the american dream. romaine: health care is obviously something that voters have gravitated to as an issue. elizabeth warren are bernie sanders essentially saying, we will give you the whole hog when it comes to medicare for all or something like that. gov. bullock: we need to make

sure that everyone has affordable, accessible health care. from my perspective, the way to do that is to build on the affordable care act, which is the biggest step we have taken since medicare. republicans have tried 70 times to gut it overall. the fact that we are still covered with pre-existing conditions, young folks can stay on, is still there. i would have a public option. it is insane for me that cosco can negotiate federal -- can negotiate drug prices and the federal government cannot do so. we need to start changing the way we compensate. the idea that what we are going to do is take away health care from 160 million people who have employee-sponsored care and say, start over. raises $3 only

trillion, we at another 2.5, $3 trillion per year for health care, i don't think that is the best policy. hillary care went nowhere because of what would be taken away. when new gingrich -- when newt gingrich rolled back medicare, it was what is going to be taken away. if we are going to take away health insurance from 160 million people in the promise of something better, i don't think that dog will hunt. joe: can trump be impeached, removed? gov. bullock: i think the inquiry needs to go forward. i think we have all seen exactly what he did. i was not for impeachment until ukraine. in iowa, people talk about trade policy, worried about losing their rural hospital, they are worried about impeachment.

do you think the impeachment becomes sort of an impediment or distraction in itself. look, i don't know how it works politically but when this all came out with republic,or the this we have to move forward. we vest the president of the united states uniquely with the ability to speak with foreign powers and if he is doing that to abuse his powers, for electoral purposes, it has to go forward. 2020fontana governor and presidential candidate steve bullock. thanks for coming on the show. speaking of the impeachment hearings, as mentioned, week two of the hearings kicking off today with lawmakers hearing and lt.nifer williams

col. alexander vindman, the official calling president trump's conversation with ukraine leader inappropriate. ,et's bring in jordan fabian who joins us from washington. what was the key or the pivotal moment of what we have heard today from the hearings? pivotal moment really came in the opening statement when vindman basically said point blank when he said that he views what the president said to the president of ukraine was inappropriate. attacks on the civil service as wrong. there were fireworks throughout this hearing. we had republican members of the committee and the republican counsel asking of questions that suggested that vindman, was born in ukraine,

had dual loyalties. talking about the fact that vindman was wearing his army uniform. there were a lot of fireworks. caroline: meanwhile, it continues and we understand that kellogg said he was andhe trump-zelensky call did not hear anything wrong. what is the next key piece of information? who is the next key speaker we will be hearing from that could really move the needle? jordan: you pointed to something there that the administration, keith kellogg, and the white house, spent the day contradictory jennifer williams, ,he pence official and vindman so the white house attacking individuals who work for them. i think everyone following this is looking forward to tomorrow the gordon sondland,

ambassador to the eu, will testify. he has been a key person in this secret channel with rudy giuliani. volker talked about how what giuliani is doing may have been inappropriate. bloomberg'sht, jordan fabian with the latest from d.c. coming up, we will discuss how trade talks and rising unrest in hong kong is contributing to increasing political pushback. this is bloomberg. ♪

joe: u.s. political pressure

growing overinvestment in china. federal government savings programs investing in chinese stocks. our next guest tries to help investors when they invest. overweight -- it excludes the worst human rights offenders. perth tolle joins us now. obviously your approach, your index, your etf is underweight countries that have bad human rights and democracy track record. how do you quantify that so you can make it an investable factor? perth: the data has to be very robust, transparent. a foundation out of germany, that we usedata set

and we have worked for these guys for time and they are independent from us. a setcore each country on differentes, 79 variables. i break it down into three categories. right to life, right to liberty, and right to property. i use the composite country score to then determine my country allocation. joe: we have the top four countries that were on there. china, one of them. how do you structure sort of an investment plan that factors china out of the equation when it is such a huge market, at least for consumer goods, manufacturing, and now technology? perth: china is one of the excluded countries. we don't have any allocation. romaine: what about indirect allocation? can you invest in apple, tesla,

which have physical operations there. every emerging-market does trade with china, invest with china. with countries that are big traders with china. the market cap weighted index, the problem that marco rubio and his team has having, they have 30% to 35% in china, direct allocation, plus they are adding a shares. there are about to quadruple the amount of a shares they have. that is a lot of direct and indirect allocation. we do have indirect allocation to china, absolutely, but we don't have the direct allocation. caroline: we just saw pictures of arco rubio.

how much has that delivered people of interest in your particular indices, have you seen an uptick? i don't know if it will turn into any bigger than that. we do not typically advocate for government or shares in private markets. the good news is that we have a private free-market solution for .t already the freedom countries get a weight.ight, -- higher bring. what we try to ideaso everyone likes the that you can invest more in line

with your values, green indices, other funds and indexes with something about sustainability and delivers better returns. atn you look historically how your approach does, how important is democratic accountability and human rights in the long-term performance of various markets. perth: we are looking very long term. if you look at history, you can see that the freer markets tend to be more dynamic and left free free marketse less tend to stagnate. an example of that now would mostbly be venezuela, the unfree market in the data set we use, not in our index. freer markets tend to recover faster from drawdowns and use their labor more efficiently -- use their capital and labor more efficiently. you can't look at that on a more

day-to-day basis, you have to look at decades. romaine: our thanks to perth tolle, founder of life and liberty. coming up, warby parker wants to sell you more than just glasses. why the retailer decided to get into contacts. this is bloomberg. ♪

joe: warby parker made a name for itself with its stylish, affordable glasses that sold online. now they are moving into contacts. the focus will keep bunking -- the focus will be on keeping the price point low. andy parker's cofounder co-ceo spoke with bloomberg today. >> we are excited to release contact lens at a much better price point that you can find elsewhere in the market and it

is really the first opportunity contact wearers, really the first opportunity to enter into an affordable contact lens daily. joe: for more, let's bring in bloomberg's austin carr. i think warby parker has a style, pretty cool, retro, like your warby parker's you are wearing now. what gives you the sense that they can thrive in contacts? austin: it is a marketing challenge but when you think big brandthat is the they have built around their business. it is the idea that, could you make glasses cool, could it be a part of your identity? with contacts, can they bring those intangible qualities to contacts.

they say it is all about the shipping company medical makes the brand. ,aroline: your story says can they create a fashion brand for contacts. ? for me, it is a medical experience. i can see the price point argument, but how can they get any slicker? >> i assume you have had to go to an eye exam or optometry office. these are dull places. warby parker is tripling the number of optometrists on staff. they are bringing more exam rooms into their retail scores. sales -- of eyeglass can you simplify that process?

apps to update your prescription online using just a macbook. romaine: if someone is poking around in my eye, i would rather than be a little bit dull and professional. warby parker, the company has been around for a long time. at some point, don't they have to transition into something else or something bigger than just selling frames? >> that is the question, will they transform into an e-commerce giant, like stitch fix? a lot of these other unicorns that have played off the war be warby model, the they have created brands off of it, but whether you will create the next amazon, that remains to be seen. caroline: don't miss this.

alibaba will set a final offer price for its hong kong listing. joe: i will be watching october fed minutes at 2:00 p.m. eastern romaine: that is offered "what'd you miss? -- that is all for "what'd you miss?" romaine: joe: this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ i'm taylor riggs in san francisco, in for emily chang, and this is "bloomberg technology." investors sink their teeth into faang. big tech delivers strong returns. some say companies like apple have room to run. plus, food delivery company door -- considers a