francine: hong kong find stuff at the center of tensions. beijing vows to retaliate after president trump supports the protesters. with two weeks until elections, a major poll forecasts a sizable majority. in the markets give thanks. u.s. stocks at fresh eyes as the fed upgrades its growth outlook. ♪ francine: happy thanksgiving.

francine lacqua here in london. u.s. treasuries are closed for the day. a lot of markets will be thin. stoxx 600 gaining 0.1%. the other big market movement this was happening -- is what is happening to the pound. we will speak to the pollster that put this yougov hole putting the majorities ahead. it always a good idea to look at yen. gives us a good litmus test for risk out there. coming up on bloomberg, we speak to the football legend rio ferdinand 30 minutes from now. we'll ask him about what business can learn from sports and why he is working with the u.k. property market. the hong kong -- hong kong has found themselves at the center of tensions after president trump signed a bill supporting city protesters.

requires special review of the trade status as well as sanctions against officials deemed responsible for human rights abuses. it threatens to copper gate trade talks at the two sides get close to a deal. let's get the latest from jodi schneider. first of all, trumps action is expected to result in immediate retaliation. what kind we talking about? -- are we talking about? >> we don't really know what it would be. it is unidentified countermeasures china has said they would engage in if the bill was passed. china wasmbassador to summoned the foreign ministry and was told that this would certainly not help the relationship. but there were not specifics on what would happen. president trump tried to ,ownplay any kind of tension

saying he did not want it to change the relationship. he was doing it, he said, out of could comeping they to some kind of conclusion. clearly, themp domestic concerns outweighed the international concerns. a veto would have been overwritten in congress because there was overwhelming support for this legislation. thank you for the update. we will continue to keep an eye on hong kong. let's get straight to first word news in london. in the u.k., the conservative party could be set for its biggest majority in decades according to a poll that closely predicted the election results. it forecasted tories getting a 68 seat majority or number of

gains are by small margins. there are still two weeks ago before election day. earlier this year, rudy giuliani pursued business from ukraine's top prosecutor. the washington post says he negotiated to represent the official for $200,000 at the same time he was seeking information about joe biden. there is no sign the agreement came into force. no comments from either side. up thes speeding issuance of its trillion yuan bond sales, ordering local governments to accelerate the sale of debt. that is so that proceeds can be invested early to help shore up the slowing economy. no details on when the bond sales will actually begin. japan, where retail ,ales are plunging after sales

tax hikes, and a typhoon kept shoppers at home. it's the worst on record that economist had only forecast a decline of over 10%. there will now do need to consider this as they look at the size of a possible spending package. apple maps is facing backlash from ukraine after some versions of its mavs app depicted crimea as parts of russia. the foreign minister tweeted that the area is under occupation but its sovereignty has not changed. google maps uses a dotted line to show that boundary. b --global news, 24 hours a day on air, on tictoc, and on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: thank you so much. let's talk about risk sentiment being soured again by u.s.-china tensions. --you are tracking bought broad declines in asia.

i'm delighted to be joined the global head of research at blackrock. great to speak deal, he makes sense of the market that times seems directionless. is all about trade what banks can do? >> i'm afraid it boils down to those two things. , what we call the protectionism push has been the most important driver, shaving 20% off u.s. equities. a lot of the rally we have seen has been on positive news on the trade front. it very much is the key driver. is part of it. francine: are we at the limit of what central banks can do? it was suggested helicopter money was the only way. jean: we were taking the

perspective over the next couple of years, not quite now. there is room in the near term, in principle. that said, when you look over the next few quarters, we think it will be harder for the fed to ease forward. we might affect a bit more easing on the ecb front. but point is, we think we are reaching limits that are getting real. there is not clearly a plan on how to deal with those limits. francine: how do you deal with treasuries? what do treasuries do in this environment where equities and treasuries are telling us something quite different. bigger's related to the question about reaching limits on the central bank front. but we have advocated and continue to believe that sovereign bonds play very important role in the portfolio in terms of providing

protections or edging against tensions. view, thens, in our case for treasuries. we may be reaching our limit, until we get there this a lot of room for treasuries. it is less clear for bonds for japanese bonds in that context. francine: there is a good chart. , and there iting is. we're looking at what happens for gold. ,f you look at block trade looking at some of the gold that could have increased since the last couple of quarters. are we going to see a risk off move as we try to understand the limits of growth? constructivefairly .

we think that despite the noise on the trade front, the chance of a mini-deal is more likely than not. favoresult, we tend to the pro-risk in this environment. we don't think this is kind of the market narrative just yet. that's more of a near-term view, and as we go beyond, the big question will be whether or not we see a more pronounced slowdown than what we have already baked in that will depend on the u.s. consumer. we are not seeing that happen as the baseline so as a result, the flight to safety is not the direction we would go. but that will heavily depend on the u.s. consumer. francine: do you see any bubbles? jean: it would be a bold call to say we don't see any anywhere. there are pockets of exuberance in different parts of the

markets, but if you make a broad statement about reaching levels we think are systemic, we are not there yet. systemic kind of imbalance that would necessarily require a spark be triggered. francine: thank you very much. stay with us, plenty is coming up. he play for his country 81 times. we discussed business in the world's most popular start with english legend rio ferdinand. decade,e enter a new what should investors be watching out for? we talk 2020. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." get straight to the bloomberg business flash in london. some investors are being given the option of getting their money back after the lender was accused of the biggest a breach of money-laundering laws in australian history. retail investors who applied for shares before the allegations came to light have the chance to change their mind. amazon is doubling holiday hiring, a signal the world's biggest online retailer expects a strong fourth-quarter. they are achieving the hiring growth to the increased range of its logistics operations. they are expected to spend a record amount online in the final two months of this year. ipa --i arabia, aramco's ipl offerings are now fully over 32 went into

billion riyals and's obstructions. they hope to raise more than $25 billion by selling 1.5% of stock toaluing the energy giant up $1.7 trillion. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: let's talk about the biggest risks to growth and what investors should be looking out for. still with us is our guest. what happens to the consumer and inflation? what is one thing you are concerned will blindside markets? i do know if it's because they are focusing on the wrong thing or because it is easy to measure. we think there is the good likelihood of having a constructive environment, but what could derail that? risks ise bigger around inflation.

inspecting -- are expecting inflation to get out of hand, but it is so understated as a risk and there is no pricing of inflation in the long-term. positioned on not that front and rear seeing inflation is slowly inching up. -- we are seeing inflation slowly up. there are factors behind the scene that you would think are part of something driving inflation. part of the central bank easing we see. it is a very unusual pit towards a large amount of central banks. is something that is very unusual. there are forces behind that. francine: what would you look at for a better indication? jean: we want to track the

actual out turn of inflation, breakevens would be a key indicator. again, given the dynamics you can see building up i think you would see the risk to be the upside in this combination is interesting. francine: if inflation is higher than expected, it changes everything. , positioning in portfolios and the weight you want to think of allocation between equity and bonds. this is a story where correlation and bonds and equity could be different or break down. that's where we think it is an important risk going forward. it's not like we think inflation has a risk of getting out of hand, that in a world surprising to the upside, it is not what we

have seen recently. francine: how do you see the trade war escalating? do you worry about the strength of the economy? jean: yes. we think the economy is slowing, but in a contained manner. time isdifferent this the fact that we don't expect china to play the role it has played throughout the expansion, which is basically to be the one to pop up stimulus -- pump up stimulus. we think they are more geared on ensuring the imbalances in china. they are not a source of weakness but they will not be the source of most that comes in 2020. the trade tensions we think will go sideways, which is not good news, but better than the escalation we have seen.

that context, we don't see additional headwinds. if we were to see an escalation, it calls into question the growth outlook we see for the u.s. and you question whether it spills over to the consumer. francine: thank you very much. coming up a hotly anticipated pole sees boris johnson's forervative party on track the biggest majority in 30 years. we have the latest on the pole and what it means for sterling. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." u.s. markets are closed as americans head home feast on turkey. here is an reordered, looking at the turkey numbers -- annmarie hordern, looking at the turkey numbers. annmarie: according to official statistics, this dinner will moreyou just a penny expensive than it was last year. not really breaking the bank. the centerpiece is the turkey, and luckily, historically we have seen prices come down for turkeys because stores just want to get people in to buy the extras. it's all about the sides. the numbers coming out, you will see a massive drop. thanksgiving dinner may not break the bank, but american consumers may be paying more at the pumps.

gasoline prices are the highest in years this weekend, but if ,ou look at other weekends thanksgiving is coming in a little bit cheaper. that's one thing to be thankful for. francine: you are also thankful if you are one of the two pardoned turkeys. butter and bread? there you. -- there you go. until thely two weeks elections, paul separated a big win for boris johnson. the yougov pole forecast the majority of 68 for conservatives with losses for labor and programs areas. we'll talk more about the survey later in the hour, but first let's discuss what it means for investors. we're going to speak to the pollsters in 20 minutes and he will explain the margin of error

, but as an investor, can you take these at face value? the pound rallied on the back, there's a danger that we get a repeat of 2017. of the market, it has moved in the direction of taking on board the status quo. outcome, we think it is a reasonable place to be. in an environment where that is confirmed, we expect a continued rally of the sterling in line with the movement we have seen. that kind of directionality make sense and is in line with our thinking. that said, one of our lessons from last few years with the rise of populism and divided politics is polling is a lot trickier. we have seen that repeatedly in many countries, even like two

weeks before the election. it's difficult to put all your money on the result of a pole. francine: we have a terminal looking at the pole that moved. if the conservatives have a larger majority, what is it actually mean for brexit? -- what does it actually mean for brexit? jean: it means we are moving in the direction of a deal quickly. it would provide more certainty on the direction or near-term outlook. this going to be a lot to be sorted out, the broader story becomes cleaver. francine: so if there is a larger majority does that mean we avoid a no deal brexit? jean: that is our starting point we get a glimpse of what could look like in the lead up to think with aand i get into a world where we are likely to get this done. francine: the sortable run, so

we will get you back and talk about u.k. best sums. -- investments. we will be speaking to the political research manager at 9:40 a.m. u.k. time. coming up, he played for his country 81 times and one six premier league titles as a cup player. we will discuss football with rio ferdinand. and we can't forget the data check. but these are your markets. the yen is measuring higher, gold is higher as well. there are concerns about the trade deal. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: hong kong finds itself at the center of u.s.-china tensions.

beijing promises to retaliate after president trump signs legislation supporting the city's protesters. with exactly two weeks until the u.k. election, a big poll predicts a big win for boris johnson. u.s. stocks hit fresh highs. equity and bond markets are closed for the thanksgiving holiday. good morning, good afternoon, good evening depending on what part of the world you are in. this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's discuss the business of the world's most popular sport. my next guest is a football legend, one of the most decorated england players of all time. he joined manchester united for a record 30 million pounds. he played 81 times for his country and won six premier titles and the champions league. now, as well as a successful career as a tv bond, he is a brand ambassador for reliable

surveyors, which provides property information to first-time homebuyers. when you look at reliable surveyors, how do you choose what you associate your name with? why reliable surveyors? rio: from a business perspective, does it make sense? a close second is, is it good for everybody else? is it something that simplifies things for other people? this fit both criteria perfectly. getting on the property ladder, especially for first-time buyers, is a difficult process. that is the job of reliable surveyors, to make that process as streamlined, simple, effective, and efficient as possible. the customer experience is at the forefront of that. francine: a lot of people say it is up to the government to make sure there is affordable housing and to help first-time buyers. what is the role of the private sector in this? rio: simplifying it, making the

consumer understand all of the details. when you go to buy a house, there is so much stuff that is almost there for you not to understand. this is the job of reliable, to make sure you are fully aware of everything available to you so you can execute in the most simple fashion possible. francine: what will you associate yourself with next time? rio: along those lines, that criteria, i think housing is something i am very interested in and that is why reliable is perfect. you spoke about affordable housing. i think if the government could just kinda be consistent and plan,long the long-term and really talk to people may be like myself who are there for the community aspect and to build community rather than just blocks. francine: how did you approach business and investment when you are a professional football player? rio: i was very -- i did stuff i

was very interested in and had a passion for. to get into a business you have no passion for, that does not excite me at all. something that will be there for people to simplify their lives and make it easier for them excites me. this is definitely a project that does that. francine: do you miss playing? is there a player you look at now that you look at like, he's got it. rio: virgil reminds me a bit of myself. i would love to be playing now. the game is bigger than what it was when i was playing. the growth is crazy. with social media as well, i would have loved to be a part of that and play football with my personality. i had a great career, longtime, and i really enjoyed it. francine: do you think it is ever getting too big? that there is too much money for the big clubs and not enough for the smaller clubs? rio: the finances being spread

throughout the league would be great but i think all businesses suffer from that. the rich get richer type scenario. i think that is up to the governing bodies to control that and help find a solution. the game could never be too big. it is a great sport, and i continue to be a part of it. francine: does that change the game? rio: it adds a bit of drama. good or bad, he is good tv. he became a tad miserable towards the end of manchester united, understandable when you are not winning. i wish him well. francine: when you look at the football female team, it is amazing. how will that grip? -- growth? shoot -- grow? rio: she usually, especially in the last couple of years. the u.s. has been at the forefront of the growth of the u.s. came -- women's game. my old teammate was the manager.

we want the ladies to be as successful as the guys, hopefully be more successful. francine: more successful. why has that changed? four or five years ago, nobody really noticed. rio: i think that is the business, football has to take ownership of that. at the moment, that is at the forefront of a lot of people's minds, making sure the women's game has the exposure it deserves. that will not happen overnight. i am sure we are on the right track. francine: did they need the support of male players? rio: i think they have got that. you see the male players current and past who champion the women's game, commentate and pundit on the women's game. the support is there. it is just time, more resources put behind it. they are on the right track. francine: how do you think football will change in the next 5-10 years? do you worry about transfers from europe? rio: brexit. the global situation is

something that has to be on the agenda of the governing bodies to make sure they can see where it is going in that respect. i think the game will continue to grow. when i was retiring, we were sitting with my team mates, this is the biggest is going to be. look at it now. i think that growth will continue at the rate it's been going -- will continue. i don't think it will continue at the rate has going for the past four years. it is a game that unites people. you can be from any background, speak a different language is. put a ball on the pitch, the cage, wherever it is, and you can play football. it is universally loved all over the world. francine: do you remember your favorite game? is there one game you will never forget? rio: winning the champions league in moscow. i had some of my best friends there, my family. when thepeople get to champions league -- win the champions league. francine: the parallels between

business and sport, it is a team game. would there be any advice you would give a chief executive today? rio: i just think delegating is a very important but having the awareness of your team, your colleagues emotionally, not just from a business perspective. if somebody sends you an email at 1:00 in the morning, some people champion that but is that great in terms of output for continued success of the company? just having awareness of people around you to make sure you take care of people. it's like football, he looks a bit tired today, the same with business. francine: why were you so good? rio: people look for a detailed answer. it is simple. work hard. i brought that to my life after football in terms of my business ventures, work ethic, preparation, and evaluating your performance. if you can be honest and brutal with yourself, you have got a great opportunity to be

successful for a long amount of time. francine: your best advice, your best to peter for a young football player watching who -- best tipl with for a young fellow player watching? rio: i will lean on the work ethic. that's what i tell my children. if you can work hard, you have a chance of being successful. with business if you can be diligent in your research and going into businesses where, from a business perspective, it makes sense, you can be successful. there is an opportunity and also an opportunity to make other people's lives easier and better. francine: we will get back to the business question. how do you make manchester united better? rio: they need time. young squad, young players that have been recruited. to ask for immediate success would be wrong. you are not often given time

in today's game. francine: final piece of advice to a young football player who needs to invest money or do business so they have a career after football? rio: take your time. don't rush into anything. find what your passion is and work into going towards that area. that is what i continue to do. francine: rio ferdinand, what a fun interview that was, the former manchester united captain and brand ambassador for reliable surveyors. with exactly two weeks until the u.k. election, a big poll predicts a big win for boris johnson. chris curtis joins us next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: this is "bloomberg

surveillance." let's get more on the u.k. election. back in the 2017 vote, one poll shook up the race. survey predicted theresa may would lose her majority. of course, that turned out to be correct. the same poll this year is predicting a big win for boris johnson. there predicting a conservative majority of 68. let's talk now to chris curtis, political research manager at yougov, who is in charge of the poll. so you think this is the most accurate poll? what can happen between now and december 12? chris: what we are trying to do is use the best data we can get our hands on. 100,000viewed over on people over the past week. the best technique we are using

to come up with the best analysis of where the race currently is. the conservatives have a 8, but we cannot predict where things will end up time. week's francine: we charted it with bloomberg. it seems quite volatile -- i mean, not volatile. what would make a change so quickly? chris: politics is much more uncertain in britain. that chart is shocking. there have been 4 different parties that have led the polls at some point in the past 12 months. that has never happened in my industry before. it is based on the fact that there are more voters willing to vote for lots of different parties than they used to be. traditional party loyalties have declined. francine: are voters volatile?

could there be something, personality, or policy that could actually shift mood completely? chris: yes. i know that we are saying there will be a big conservative majority at the moment. the data underlying this, it does not need to be a massive shift in order to change things. there are 30 seats where we currently have the conservatives are ahead by less than 5%. if you see the labour starting to squeeze the national polls more, it's very easy to see how we could end up in a hung parliament territory. it's definitely possible. francine: do you think voters are voting on brexit or are they voting on policies? is expanding? is that just -- is it spending? is it just character of the leaders? chris: i think brexit is important. conservatives gaining a lot of lead voters. that's why we see these big

swings. think labour we'll try to turn the issues back onto the things they know they poll better on. they still have the crucial difficulty that boris johnson is significantly more popular than jeremy corbyn, the leader of the opposition and they will be hoping to close that gap. francine: boris johnson holding onto scotland is quite amazing. did that surprise you? chris: it did, it really did. one of the things that came out of this model is that the conservatives are holding almost all of the seats that they gained in scotland in 2017. seats. are gaining some francine: what is happening with the lib dems? they did so well and european election -- in the european elections. rio: this has not --

chris: this has not been a good campaign for the lib dems. their vote share has gone down quite considerably. under the first -- under the system we have in the u.k., they are doing a bad job at turning that into winning many or even any extra seats. francine: how do people get their information about the candidates? can atv debate really make or debate really make or break a leader? chris: they do tend to have an impact. we will have to keep tracking over the couple of weeks. we still have a couple of tv debates left. ng will have to keep seei if this moves the dial idle. lsancine: how many more pol will come out? last time, was it less volatile? chris: the last election was very volatile as well.

we saw the conservatives start off with a comfortable lead and every day during the campaign, that lead was shrinking. the two main parties have started to squeeze back voters of the smaller parties. that comfortable conservative lead has held fairly steady. we will have to see if the party can do a better job of squeezing those votes more. we will be doing some lls and also -- this once more. it tends to do a fairly good job. boris johnson is a bit more popular in his party, jeremy corbyn is a little bit less popular in his party at the moment. we will see if that changes during the remainder of the campaign. francine: chris curtis, public research manager at yougov. he will be very busy for the next two weeks. and brexit the

u.k. chief executive of. american fast food chain five brexit with the u.k. chief executive of american fast food chain five guys.

♪ francine: economics, finance,

politics, this is "bloomberg surveillance." let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. here's leigh-ann gerranss. >> some westpac investors are being given the option of getting their money back after the lender was accused of the biggest breach of money laundering laws in australian history. retail investors who applied for shares before the allegations came to light have the chance to change their mind. apple maps is facing backlash from ukraine after some versions of its map app depicted crimea as part of russia. its sovereignty has not changed. the more widely used google maps uses a dotted line to show the boundary. over to japan, with the retail sales plunging in october after a sales tax hike and a typhoon kept shoppers at home. the fall of 14.4% is the worst on record.

economists had only forecast a decline of just over 10%. the government will now need to consider this as it looks at the size of a possible spending package. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: many americans will be sitting down to a thanksgiving feast later today but turkey is menu at a beloved american burger brand gaining a foothold in the u.k. five guys is a restaurant with about 100 stores in the u.k. and has an expansion plan despite brexit uncertainty and market conditions. i am joined by the five guys chief executive, john eckbert. it is one of the most beloved restaurants and chains. do you worry about overexpansion? do you worry about brexit impacting your business? still.t is early days we think we may be halfway there

in the u.k.. it feels like early days for the premium burger segment in the u.k. five guys was founded 30 years ago in america so we are only six years in here. feels like there is a long way to go. francine: is it a crowded segment in the u.k.? in the last three years, suddenly this was a big thing to have. john: competition for where you go out to eat will always be intense. certainly, burgers is the most popular item on any menu. there will always be competition. you welcome competition. there is going to be competition. francine: where do you choose where to open? john: a lot it comes from where people contact us from. people will email us and go on our website and say please come here. we will look and study the demographics and who shops there and how busy is any given street. we do a lot of due diligence and where we will go next. francine: do you worry about the inflation in the u.k. and what

it means for the things you buy? john: sure. cost of goods is a major part of our business, of course. one of the biggest impacts has been the pound versus other currencies. if you are buying product in non-pound currency and you are pounds, youey in have a foreign-exchange challenge in addition to inflation associated with it. both from a currency perspective and product inflation perspective, you have to be aware of both. francine: what is your biggest concern for the chain? we are talking about food and inflation. is it attracting the right talent to your restaurant? john: we are growing quite quickly with 100 stores in the europe. 44 stores in we will open 47 stores next year so it's keeping the culture of the business. you are only as good as a last burger you have made and that is

all the customer cares about, what is my food like. that is driven by who is in the restaurant and who cares about your food being made for you. so having people in the store, leaders in the store that are passionate about the company, that care about the food they are preparing, that has to be the top concern everywhere. francine: it is a cross between culture for the company and i guess food safety, how do you translate that? john: it is the culture of the business. i am fortunate to work for a family owned business. five guys is owned actually by five guys and their mom and dad. there is a seven-member family that stands behind everything at five guys. they meets every tuesday and talk about the business and how it is driven, which is really different from a public he traded companies. it a really different mentality how our company functions. francine: thank you so much. restauranth monday --

the 100th restaurant is opening up on monday. francine: tom is off for thanksgiving. we will be talking to huw van steenis. markets. your treasuries not trading today because of the thanksgiving holiday. a lot a focus will be on u.s.-china trade. we are a bit thin on the news today. probably welcome, because we are thin on volume as well. what traders will focus on is that latest poll. and prospects for an interim trade deal between the u.s. and china. gold higher. this is bloomberg. ♪ when it comes to using data, everyone is different.

which is why xfinity mobile is a different kind of wireless network that lets you design your own data. choose unlimited, shared data, or mix lines of each and switch any line, anytime. giving you more choice and control compared to other top wireless carriers.

and now get $250 off when you buy a new samsung phone during xfinity mobile beyond black friday. plus, you can save up to $400 a year. click, call or visit a store today. ♪ francine: hong kong finds itself

at the center of u.s.-china tensions. beijing vows to retaliate after president trump signs legislation supporting the city protesters. exact exactly two weeks -- it is exactly two weeks until the u.k. election. markets give thanks. u.s. stocks set fresh highs. equity and bond markets are closed for the thanksgiving holiday. good morning, good afternoon, good evening. this is "bloomberg surveillance." tom keene is off for thanksgiving. let's go straight to hong kong finding itself at the center of these u.s.-china tensions after president trump signed into law a bill in support of the city's protesters. the legislation requires annual reviews of hong kong's a special trade status and sanctions against officials deemed responsible for human rights abuses. the move threatens to complicate trade talks with beijing as the sides get close to a phase one deal. let's get the latest from our senior international editor in hong kong. after the signing of the bill,

china said they will retaliate. any idea how? does this go back to trade? >> we really don't know yet. they have been threatening this through the process, saying if the bill passed, they would have unspecified countermeasures and i thet did, did, -- and once it did, the president signed it. we don't know what this retaliation could look like or whether it will be a war of words for a while. we do know that the trade talks are continuing and that both president trump and the chinese negotiators said they are continuing. the other day, they said they had been making progress. president trump clearly felt that the domestic concerns outweighed the international

ones enforcing this hand to sign the bill. he would have likely had an override, a veto if he had chosen that path given the overwhelming bipartisan support for the legislation in the u.s. congress. francine: should we really worry about hong kong as a financial hub? and should we worry about the banks? >> at this point, we are hearing that this is not an issue. we heard from the hong kong monetary authority saying that the dollar peg still remains. , thely, the issues measures that could be taken in this bill are not likely to be taken anytime soon. these are the kinds of things they really have to certified 'sat there would be hong kong

autonomous. it does give the state department the ability to change the way that hong kong is treated under trade laws if they do not find it is semi-autonomous. no one expects that to change soon. the situation in hong kong and the situation with businesses here is largely going to be determined in the short run on whether the protests turn violent again. right now, it has been calm for the past few days. i think businesses are looking and seeing whether they expect things, how they expect things to be on the streets and on the ground in hong kong, not so much what the u.s. has done with this legislation, certainly not in the short run. francine: thank you so much. our senior international editor with the latest on hong kong. let's get the latest first word news. >> this may be a new test for president trump over north korea. kim jong-un's regime appears to

have fired off two missiles today as kim has threatened to break open nuclear talks with the u.s.. . he's demanding president trump ease up on economic sanctions by the end of this year. the president has recently ignored north korea's test.range missile the u.s. is pushing to wrap up negotiations on a new trade deal with mexico and canada. the agreement has become president trump's top legislative priority. the administration and house democrats have been locked in talks for months to secure a vote before the end of this year. democrats want more enforcement of labor issues. both mexico and canada say they have -- there has indeed been progress. it is the most hotly anticipated poll of the british election campaign and it is predicting boris johnson's conservative party will win its biggest majority in more than three decades. according to the yougov poll,

the conservatives will win a majority of 68 seats in the december 12 election. it used a technique that closely predicted the 2017 election. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. treasuries are actually closed because of thanksgiving and there has been trading volumes. euro area november economic confidence rising 101.3 for that consumer confidence in the eurozone zone instead of 101 that we were expecting. it is a little bit of a lift. we have some breaking news out of opec. opec says it sees balanced oil markets in 2020 with current output cuts. we spoke to the iea. a lot of focus will be on peak

oil when it happens. on thanksgiving day, trading volumes are thin but there are still quite a lot of things going on. i am looking at european stocks slipping. there are concerns about trade. i say that most days but today seems to have taken a little bit more of a turn because of what happened with hong kong and the fact that donald trump signed a bill backing the hong kong protesters. that raises concerns about the prospects for an interim deal. yen higher, gold higher. giving theugov poll conservatives a lead and that is 1.2931 for cable. risk sentiment has been soured again by u.s.-china tensions. stretch,s now, jeremy and marija veitmane, the state street multi-asset strategist. thank you both for joining us, especially on thanksgiving. let's kick it off with you,

jeremy. a lot of volatility on the back of just china trade or is it difficult to capture? jeremy: there is inevitably the ongoing spat between the u.s. and china. it creates ongoing uncertainties. in a sense, after the significant run we have seen in the equities in the last few sessions, it is understandable that we see a little bit of a correction after the signing of this deal -- bill. it adds another layer of complexity or potential risk arising to the process of trade negotiations. it makes sense for a little bit of risk off mentality on what is a relatively liquid session to play out. francine: what kind of markets are we seeing? are they sophisticated? or is it risk on, risk off? marija: markets have very much been following the news so that is kind of day to day. longer term, i think we have opportunities to be a bit more constructive.

yes, economies are slowing, but then we have central banks kind of supporting us. that sounds quite sophisticated. very much, it is is it on, is it off? francine: if we see higher inflation in the u.s., permeating across the world, which we could, that changes everything. jeremy: we could ended. we have had a -- indeed. --have had a what is the outlook for 2020? are we going to see a little degree of optimism? i think in a sense, we would take the view that we will see a better macro economic environment in 20 relative to mes year, not -- in between 2020ive this year -- in relative to this year.

bittart to see a little more focus or impact on the fiscal side. maybe that will be the impact that will drive markets and start to steepen up the curve bias rather than necessarily purely on the basis of seeing any inflationary impulses. francine: are you trying to figure out the macroeconomics and therefore the impact on the markets? marija: a good question. we have been quite constructive for risk markets this year, mainly because everybody else was so pessimistic. our view was yes, things are bad, but not terrible. that was enough to get some strong returns in pretty much any asset you look across. that is probably bubblelike territory. are we going to burst? i would probably venture to say yourcentral banks -- so question yesterday, what markets should be thankful for his central bank liquidity.

it is very hard to see that going away anytime soon. we probably are in a bubble. is this bubble going to burst anytime soon? hopefully not. francine: so central bank support, what does that mean for dollar? does it strengthen from here? jeremy: i think that central bank support is very important. going into december, 2018, we saw the question of central bank liquidity being thrown into the market. i think in the context of essential bank liquidity, if you transpose that into 2020, we could well start to see an excess of supply of dollars in the market. if we see a less risk-averse type mentality, which has been beneficial for the dollar, i think we can and will see an environment in 2020 where we will see a cheapening up of the value of the dollar. francine: thank you very much. jeremy stretch and marija veitmane both stay with us. while the u.s. markets are

closed for thanksgiving, many people gearing up for tomorrow's black friday. yes, the official kickoff to the holiday shopping season is expected to see strong e-commerce sales. also tomorrow, lawmakers are set to confirm the government's budget for 2020. leaders of the seven major political parties in the u.k. will take part in a live election debate on the bbc. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> the definition of our primary objective of price stability. we have to clarify in particular various horizons, are

our variouss, -- time horizons, as well as our commitment to symmetry. bank of: that was the france governor talking. jeremy stretch and marija veitmane are still with us. when you look at ecb and what madame lagarde can do, is it only fiscal that she can push? marija: i think fiscal would probably have the most impact. she talked a lot about it. it was interesting yesterday, european commission elections. yes, it is about environment, climate change and digital economy. those things can garner the need for spending and investment. that is probably one of the things that the government can get behind. maybe we don't want to

particularly spend but spending on environment is ok. i think that is quite optimistic. francine: jeremy, what happens to euro? jeremy: i think the euro is cheap.emarkably you can argue that the downturn we have seen in the euro zone economy this year has been reflected in terms of the valuation of the euro. i think we see a slightly weaker dollar environment and some improvement in the metrics in terms of growth trajectory. we see increasing debate about the longevity of that budgetary ball seat in germany -- policy in germany. i think we can and will see a gradual appreciation of the euro, not a massive one. i think that is the sort of trajectory we should be looking for. francine: thank you both, jeremy stretch, marija veitmane both stay with us. a hotly anticipated paul sees boris johnson's conservative party on track to win its biggest majority in over 30 years. we will have the latest on that poll and what it actually means

for sterling next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> this is "bloomberg surveillance." i am leigh-ann gerrans. let's get your bloomberg business flash. the retail section of aramco's ipo is fully covered with one day to go. the lead manager says 3.7 million people bought $8.7 billion of shares. most transactions were made online and at bank branches.

retail investors are key to the aramco ipo. it has become a mainly regional affair. amazon is a signaling it expects a strong fourth quarter. largest online retailer has doubled its holiday hiring in the u.s.. they will be used to get products into warehouses, past boxes, and even make deliveries. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: it is exactly two weeks until the united kingdom will go to the polls for the third time since 2015. a big poll has predicted a big win for boris johnson using a technique which closely predicted the result last time. pollpoll the forecast -- the 68l forecast a majority of for the conservatives. let's discuss what it means for investors. yougov a great poll, the poll. it is a good way of actually

looking at how these polls have changed over the last quarter. you can see there was definitely a flip in july, 2019. joining us now to talk more about the poll is rotten lynn matheson -- rosalind matheson. jeremy stretch and marija veitmane are still here. we have a great poll. we spoke to the person that did said voters are quite volatile so they could flip quite quickly. is that fair? >> that's correct. is probablyhis poll a strong disappointment to the labour party and a buffer for boris johnson. there is still two weeks to go. if the tories go from 11 points to seven or below, that is still enough to flip them. all is not lost, even though this poll suggests a majority of potentially up to 76. francine: how can we be so sure

that the way this poll was done is more accurate than traditional polling? >> it was intimate because it was the poll that got it right in 2017. it is quite a large sampling size. they are trying to identify certain voting types. they have to get those types right, then the questions right. itself saying that this is not completely scientific because voting moods change. it has to be because for concern for labour party to see these numbers come up. francine: sterling moved quite significantly on the back of that poll. >> there was a lot of anticipation ahead of the propagation of that poll right at the witching hour in new york last night. the markets were pent up waiting to see what the outcome was going to be. inyou look at that poll

isolation, provides the opportunity or would provide the opportunity for the brexit process to be driven forward. we have not been able to extend that to this morning because we are now starting to think about the broader perspectives around the poll and the validity. there was another poll out last night that had a seven point lead for the conservatives. yes, this poll is influential, but there are a a number of crosscurrents, a number of elements which i think are leaving people mindful about reading too much into one individual poll. onncine: i guess the concern how whoever ends up in power deals with the brexit is you have a transition. are you expecting u.k. assets to be much more volatile for the next 12 months? marija: the opportunity is definitely there. to me, what is very interesting is that markets are taking -- as positive

because we are less likely to have no deal brexit. what is very interesting is it is about the withdrawal agreement but what happens with future relationships? who knows. we cannot even rule out no deal brexit. maybe we have a closer relationship with europe. all the news about how impossible it is to do a deal. what it means for potential deal with europe, so actually, once ofexit europe, the degree possibilities of future rules is almost as wide as we had before. we always talk about, after this election, after this poll, after this vote we will get some clarity uncertainty. will we have volatility? absolutely. what we see from our conversations is it is really difficult for people to invest in u.k. assets. i am not talking about currency

but thinking about stocks, bonds. yes, people would speculate around the news and around the news flow. if theree surprised are many people far from benchmarks and equity markets. francine: i know there is no easy fix but who would go in collusion with who? is it possible? would you assume that if there was not a majority, that it would be almost impossible to form a coalition? >> it seems the smaller parties will probably rally behind the labour party. you would have to have a really close result for that to happen. got my mandate, the british people have spoken. if it is that close, you will find the smaller parties probably will rally behind labor even though there are fundamental differences between them. what jeremy corbyn need to do is go back to labour party voters. he's not talking about brexit to anybody. lots of labour party voters want

brexit and they are feeling left down. what labour party needs to do is go to those voters and say, i hear you, because those are the voters that seem to be drifting to the tories. those are the ones he needs to bring back. francine: thank you all for joining us. rosalind matheson there, jeremy stretch and marija veitmane of state street both stay with us. up next, backing the bill. beijing summons the u.s. ambassador after president trump signed legislation supporting hong kong protesters. we will hear from both sides of the conflict and what this means for investors. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> of course, it is not welcome news, but as you can see the market reaction has been pretty calm. >> it is a proxy thing.

>> it is another thing like having the tariffs, a thanksgiving present for everyone. >> this too shall pass. >> this is more posturing than substance. substance is trade. >> it will be a headache to figure out what will be a violation of human rights. >> it is a foregone conclusion that he would sign it, so china is prepared or was prepared for this. >> the new administration and congress -- hong kong on human rights and not being override. >> i don't think they have hong kong's freedoms, hong kong's democracy, and hong kong's human rights in mind. it is all about china. tom: some of the rate -- francine: some of the reaction after president trump signed a bill in support of hong kong

protesters. catch bloombergtv's special report on hong kong on edge. here is leigh-ann gerrans. leigh-ann: in japan, retail sales plunged more than 14%. a supertype cap shoppers at home. that is a worse than expected outcome. they are considering the size of a spending package to support growth. a powerful winter storm in midwest u.s. is making life miserable for thanksgiving travelers, dropping close to a foot of snow in some areas and forcing airlines to cancel hundreds of flights. conditions on the west coast stranded drivers. fast inces are climbing the largest emerging markets. asia's two largest countries face a price surge.

in china, the price of pork has soared. in indiana, onions have skyrocketed. price hikes have not convinced central banks to tighten up. is still at anon all-time low. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine: incoming e.u. commission president r sela vendor lay-in has vowed to shift -- ursula von der leyen has vowed to shift the focus to the environment, and the greendale is a must. she spoke to maria tadeo. >> i think it is a must for all of us because we know that climate change is existential. it is a huge opportunity in it, because at the moment, we are

the european front runner in fighting climate change and new technology and green financing. we have 40% of all of the renewable energy worldwide, so if we do well, it is not only good for the planet and the people, but it will also be good for the european economy because we will be the front runner. maria: when you look at the friction between germany and , as the head of the european commission do you see a bigger role within nato, or is it time to consider a european army? urszula: nato will always be defense of article five and the strongest military alliance in the world. we have many european member states that are also members in

europeans,ce, and as , the european union had the well to answer the crisis, without destruction. we are building up the defense union, knowing that it will be complementary to nato, but it is for cases where we need the european union with the huge toolbox we have from development, investment, diplomacy to servicemen and servicewomen, so we are able to act when called upon. francine: that was the incoming european commission president. on any is moving forward pledge to lead a public-sector switch.

next year, the finance minister will sell green government bonds. where we arerlin joined by the leader of the economic advisory committee. what do you need from the commission to make your life easier? daniel: think you for having me. germany is facing structural challenges. we see a declining economy and we have to modernize our economy in terms of green. i expect the hardware industry in germany with a strong chemistry, scenery, and automobile industry to get structural changes. activere a lot of entrepreneurs, but we need a regulatory framework setting an ambitious target in meeting the paris climate agreement. makery used to be a trade

in these politics, but we are not anymore. i think the german government should follow the ambitious target of ursula von der leyen. we tried to push the green agenda forward. francine: does the debt break need to be reformed and can it be reformed? danyal: the debt break is an institution that has been institutionalized to limit the debt, which is a good idea, but up to now we see we are not investing enough. germany is facing a declining economy, so i am eager in modernizing this debt break so we can utilize it in low interest fields and more credit. we have structural challenges and we have to green up the economy. my proposal from the green economy -- green party's we use 1% of our gdp in terms of credit , 30 billion euros to 35 billion

euros every year for investment. this would help to green up the economy and organize our technological sovereignty, when you think about 5g. it is one of the most important things in reforming the debt break. francine: as the green party behind the banking union? is it enough to unlock? danyal: first of all, we are very pro-european topics we are discussing, a banking union, completing the single market, and so on, and i'm thankful to the finance minister that he has pushed the public forward and is campaigning for the chair of the social democrats. topic it is not only of of discussion for the interparty. up until now, it was germany and the german government on the

break in terms of this discussion, so my expectation is the german banks and government is eager in completing the banking union. it is an important pillar on completing the european single market and capital markets union. i am thankful for this proposal and we are eager in pushing this forward. francine: do you see the upcoming spd election as a threat to the coalition and would you ever go into a coalition to avoid fresh elections? danyal: i don't know, it is a black box, so i'm interested how this all will end up. my expectation is that the party schulz -- holala no incentivere is

for the democrats to leave the coalition. a is important that we have stable government, stable coalition. germany will run the european council within the next year so we need a stable government. if there is snap elections coming up or a situation where other parties have to take a seat at the table to negotiate a contract, the greens will be open to participating. we did this last time. it was not us that left the table, it was the liberals, so we are interested in negotiating. francine: thank you so much for your time. the bundestag green party economic advisory committee leader. black friday is back, but where are shoppers planning to shop? even more people are expected to shop digitally.

we dive into online versus the brick-and-mortar battle, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg "surveillance." i am francine lacqua in london. with thanksgiving following on his latest possible date, there are only 26 possible shopping days until christmas. americans are planning to spend more this holiday season than ever before. jeremy stretch and marija veitmane are both still with us. we have to start the conversation on the strength of the economy, inflation in the u.s., and it boils down to the u.s. consumer. is he and she their and strong?

there butey are still may be feeling more fatigued so there may be some question marks as to whether they can maintain the pace. when it comes to black friday sales, you can never discount the fact that the shopper will be out in force. i was in new york last week and the shops seemed quite empty but that could be waiting for the sales. francine: if they shop too much during the discount, it does not help much the overall economy. marija: consumers are looking to spend less. in financial markets, we are focused on the black friday sale. i think i received about 100 emails in the last week about black friday. sales willke probably continue a bit longer.

have a longer sale season, i suspect. another important point particularly about the u.s. to bear in mind, last year we had the government shut down and depressed sales so the year on year numbers will probably look quite reasonable and that potentially could cheer us up a little bit. consumer does the u.s. spend less because of trade or headlines or not really? marija: people who don't send into people like ourselves are probably quite happy. unemployment is close to record low and wages are growing. metrics for the consumer look ok. if you read "the financial times" too much you will worry about china and trade, but that is probably not the majority of consumers. most people feel fairly comfortable and we got the gdp

report yesterday. the economy is doing better than ok, so i would not worry too much. francine: i cannot believe someone would not watch bloomberg with the trade headlines. is the consumer overall as strong as in the u.s., elsewhere in the world? jeremy: probably not, and that is interesting. we tend to fixate on the big centers but we should not lose sight on middle america where there will be a different interpretation. other jurisdictions in thinking about the consumer, there are obvious consumer headwinds in many jurisdictions. to the point that we will see a greater degree of discounts and more prolonged sales over the next month, because it is the never ending battle that retailers are forcing additional discounts to maintain volume. you are looking at volumes and trying to differentiate that in

terms of underlying margins and profitability. there is a little bit of a distinction. consumers are savvy and will find bargains, and retailers will be forced to discount or maintain volumes. francine: thank you both. in the last couple of minutes, we are getting some news out of china. we did here earlier today that china was repeating at's hong kong bill would be met with strong countermeasures and they would retaliate. we were having discussions on whether that would happen or whether this is speaking more to their domestic public. in the last couple of minutes, there was a tweet by the editor-in-chief of the global times, very close to china, saying based on what i know, out of respect for president trump, the u.s., and its people, the china is considering to put the act on the noe

entry list. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ leigh-ann: this is bloomberg

"surveillance." private equity firm apollo global management raised its offer for tech data 11%. the new price is $1.5 billion in cash. the move was prompted by a competing offer. tech data is a distributor of tech products. citigroup's new president is getting a 12.4 -- $12.5 million bonus. him.is looking to retain he will be awarded half in cash .nd half in stock both will be invested in annual installments over four years. that is the bloomberg business flash. with one we set down of the most decorated england players of all time. with a record 30

million pounds, played eddie one-times for his country, and he won six premier league titles. he is a brand ambassador for a -- we asked called how football will change in the next 10 years. >> the global situation is something that has to be on the agenda of the governing bodies so they can see where it is going in that respect. the game will continue to grow. when i was retiring, we were sitting with my teammates, this is the highest and the biggest it will be. i think that growth will continue. i don't know if the rate continue. francine: why are people so passionate about football? rio: because it unites people. you can speak different language, put a ball in the pitch or in the cage and it is

universally loved. francine: do you remember your favorite game? is there one game you will never forget? rio: winning the champions league in moscow, i had some of my best friends and family. not many people get to the champions league so that was the top. francine: the parallels between business and sports is quite a lot because it is a team game, you have to rely on others, there is an attack, defense. is there any advice you would give a chief executive? rio: having the awareness of your team or your colleagues emotionally, not just from a business perspective, at 1:00 it in the morning, maybe some people champion that, but is that great for output and continue success of the company? just make sure you take care of people. they may need a day off. in football, he looks a bit

tired today. the same in business. francine: that was rio ferdinand. do you follow football? you just decided to come on because he was on, right? jeremy: i knew nothing about it, but his career is something i have followed across the last few decades. it is fascinating how he is trying to transcend the success he had in football into other spheres, and is a tremendous role model. francine: if you are in the markets, i'm trying to make a transition that is quite uneasy, i don't know if you follow football. what are the unknown unknowns of what we are living through at the moment? is there a groupthink that the markets focus too much on trade, on central banks, and maybe miss the canary in the coal mine of things that could go wrong? marija: it is interesting, and i

think his work on narrative economics, that captures investors' imagination. following investor sentiment, that is very interesting. fronture in football, my -- my son follows football quite closely and it is the chemistry of the team that makes the team win games. that is kind of the narrative within financial markets and what drives markets. that has been the thing that helped this year. at the beginning of this year if somebody told you the economy would slow down, the trade deal would not be signed, hong kong protests, who would have thought the markets would be up? the central banks will help the markets up stronger. tom: five years ago, -- francine: is this the year central banks will normalize? will they ever normalize? jeremy: we are a decade on from

the crisis and generally in many instances are in crisis mode. becomes we have normalized in terms of unconventional policies being kept in play for longer than you would assume. because of the nature of this perception of liquidity being ,ssential for asset valuations and central banks are mindful of the uncertainty that would come inh the associated fallback terms of asset prices, we are almost implicit. unless we see inflation picking up, the normalization is another decade away, it seems like. jeremy: thank you both. -- francine: thank you both. ♪

everyone uses their phone differently. that's why xfinity mobile lets you design your own data. you can share 1, 3, or 10 gigs of data between lines, mix in lines of unlimited, and switch it up at any time. all with millions of secure wifi hotspots and the best lte everywhere else. it's a different kind of wireless network, designed to save you money. switch and save up to $400 a year.

and now get $250 off google pixel 4 during xfinity mobile beyond black friday. that's simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today. ♪ francine: hong kong finds itself

at the center of u.s.-china tensions. afterg vows to retaliate president trump signs legislation supporting the protesters. a paul predicts a big win for boris johnson. markets give thanks. u.s. stocks set fresh eyes. equity and bond markets are closed for the holiday. from ourloomberg, live world headquarters in london. i am francine lacqua. a lot of focus will be on your markets but we are seeing subdued markets and focus on what has happened with hong kong as it found itself at the center of the u.s.-china tension as president trump signed a bill into law in support of the protesters. sanctions against officials deemed responsible for human

rights violations. the two sides get close to a phase one deal. latest.t the always great to speak to you. from --ago, we heard close to the chinese government that they will not allow entry to the people who drafted the bill. is that the least aggressive retaliation we could have seen? derek: i have covered marco rubio for a long time and he would consider that a present. the people who wrote this legislation would be thrilled if china retaliated against them personally, it it is, but it is from a markets perspective the least china can do. it is a symbolic action. we are not talking about a retaliatory action that would

impact trade talks. that was something some people worried about. it is also not a military reaction or anything like that. the hong kong legislation, as you know very well, is a very symbolic piece of legislation, doesn't do very much now. it requires reports and gives the u.s. windows by which they can reconsider the special status hong kong has, but does not do much except for state the u.s. position. importantsymbols are and this was a very big symbol for the hong kong protesters. francine: what can you tell us about the protests going forward? are they touch and go? will they be similar to the last 10 to 15 days? derek: i think it will be interesting to see how it goes from here. the police were going into poly spot, sweeping

through there, doing fingerprint analysis and things like that. there has been a little bit of a come down i think in hong kong, but previous things like that have been just pauses, not stops. one thing you have seen after the hong kong local elections where democratic leading candidates really swept through, it was a really big stinging rebuke at a local level, that is a very big sign going forward, how that will happen. we have not seen any ease off from the protesters and we have not seen any big signs from beijing they are willing to capitulate on any of those major things yet. francine: thank you very much, derek wallbank joining us from singapore. leigh-ann: good morning. this may be a new test for president trump over north korea. to jong-un's regime appears

have fired off two missiles to breakhe threatened off sputtering nuclear talks, demanding president trump ease up on economic sanctions. he has largely ignored their short range missile tests. opec expects the oil market to be balanced in 2020 if the compound remains -- retains current production levels. it is a signal they are deciding to stick with their output cuts. it is the most hotly anticipated campaign,e british predicting the conservative party will win its biggest majority in more than three decades. the conservatives will win a majority of 68 seats in the election. technique --did a used a technique from the 2017 election. global news 24 hours a day, on

air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. this is your data check. andfocus is on u.s.-china went president trump signing the bill means. nudging higher is gold, a risk off move. we have thanksgiving, so a lot of americans are off and volumes are thin. the pound rising against the dollar yesterday, paring back some of the gains. a poll suggested a u.s. -- the conservatives would deliver a huge majority. is right but it could change quickly because volatile voters are more volatile now than they were five years ago. turning to markets, risk sentiment has been soured again by u.s.-china tensions.

joining us now, i am delighted anday, is kuvin cmis christian schulz. when you for joining us you look at markets around the world and the economy, is it all about trade? if trade continues for the next 10 years, what kind of economy will we inherit? economyn: what kind of will we inherit? trade clearly plays a big role in the outlook for the coming the rules based international trade system we are use to has been damaged and perhaps are quite some time, even if we see signs that the escalation phase is about to end. it will be difficult to rebuild

this rules-based framework, and that will weigh on global supply chains for a long time, which means we will have to -- manufacturing companies in particular will have to work to nationalize supply chains or regionalized them, and that will mean some reonshoring away from the hubs today to where the consumer sits. francine: you look at the reshaping global economy, the fact that u.s.-china could simmer for the next 5, 10 years. and it impact supply chains investment or just chief executive psychology? huy: clearly, trade tensions -- and they are starting to be impacted particularly around the technology sector. they are trying to create options in other jurisdictions

and some are changing supply chains. we have a huge monetary stimulus this year that is soothing a lot of pain. is down to anl all-time low and an all-time high on the s&p. anna terry policy is soothing a lot of the pains. francine: i actually have that chart and i will get it up in a second. are we reaching the end of monetary policy? and its efficacy? christian: we are reaching operational limits on negative interest rates. we still have cash with a 0% return which limits how low central banks can go. it is hurting banks' profitability and perhaps setting some inverse incentives for savers who are liability driven, who need a certain .mount of pensions

, thee balance sheets space ecb will probably run out of bunds to buy. overall, monetary policy is starting to hit the limits in more and more jurisdictions, so people are looking elsewhere for support. where people are not looking so much at the moment is how can it be made possible that central , can you abolish cash altogether? what can you do for central banks to lower the rates? what can you do to do more from the monetary policy side and if not you have the fiscal policy debate. francine: you were mentioning volatility.

this is the chart, euro volatility. will we see a lot more into 2020? huw: this chart tells me is the market assumes there is no vol and it is an unhappy thanksgiving for an fx trader. i like to think about what are the risks and surprises for next year? if there were to be a reflation trade in europe, the market is not pricing it in so it is probably cheap optionality to play euro reflation. the ecb saying there are three more years of hard calls on negative rates. agative rates was sort of good idea amongst policymakers and has now gone to a necessary evil. the next phase is it may be doing more harm than good. we have passed the reversal rate and the damage it is doing, the banks in asset bubbles, there

will be a real consideration -- reconsideration. both stay -- francine: both stay with us. the u.s. markets are closed for the thanksgiving holiday, many people gearing up for black friday, the official kickoff to the holiday season is expected to see strong e-commerce sales. german lawmakers are looking to confirm the balance budget for 2020. leaders of the seven major political parties will take waste and a live election debate on the bbc, plenty more on that throughout the day. andcracy activists supporters are holding a thanksgiving rally for the u.s. after passing the hong kong act. those are live pictures. we had a tweet from someone very close to the chinese government, the editor of the global times saying based on what he knows,

china is considering to put the list,rs on the no entry barring them from entering china, hong kong, and macau. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ about the definition of our primary objective of price stability, we have to clarify in ,articular our time horizons our various time horizons, as well as our commitment to symmetry. banque dethat was the france governor.

let's talk more about the ecb. i feel like we should start with you, christian, because you are in frankfurt and they have given the ecb the most pushback. what can christine lagarde do to get the germans on side? christian: the most important thing is for the ecb to maintain price stability. from a german perspective, there is a twist that lower inflation is better than high inflation, but gaining the germans' trust is important. she has very good contacts to berlin and has worked with angela merkel, so she probably has some leverage and can tell people what she said in her big speech in frankfurt last week, that there is a shortfall in demand and monetary policy is only one of the tools that can address that. i think that logic will be

transmitted again and again to berlin, and that is where many of the hopes of these central bankers go, that berlin opens s.e floodgate huw: on my trips to germany, that is not my impression. demands for fiscal policy are intense. the president has an interesting opportunity with a strategic review to challenge the status quo, and the inflation targeting is the least interesting of the changes. one would be, i still think negative rates are doing more harm than good, but maybe we should change the way we think about it. one weakness in the ecb institutional structure is it does not have a macro prudential body. macrok actually having a pru body would be incredibly valuable. how do they weigh out the stress for banks and are negative rates

doing more harm than good in terms of asset bubbles? they started talking about the side effects but they do not have any powers, so having powers at a macro prudential level could be a game changer. francine: how much is negative rates hurting german banks? christian: substantially. we have enormous retail deposits at these banks, which they charge zero on, zero interest rates, but they have to invest that money at the ecb policy rate of 50 basis points, putting them at a negative carry. they have to cross subsidize these depositors from somewhere else. what used to be the business model that you take the money from the grandmothers and others and lended out to the bakers and the grandmothers subsidize the bakers, it is now going the other way potentially. that is not good for the economy

overall. it is clearly a problem that is not really the ecb's problem, it is a legislative problem or a business practice problem that the banks pass on the negative rates to their customers, and they should start doing that. that would make this reversal for's nots not -- such a big problem -- for banks not such a big problem. i don't think we will see fiscal stimulus from germany anytime soon and that is not a bad thing. createstimulus usually big long-term problems. francine: thank you both. coming up, it is black friday. where are consumers planning to shop, department stores or digital? we dive into the online versus brick-and-mortar battle, next.

this is what is happening in hong kong, yesterday donald trump legislation expressing u.s. support for protesters, 's retaliation. activists and supporters holding a thanksgiving rally after the passing of that act. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ this is bloomberg

"surveillance." let's get your bloomberg business flash. the retail section of aramco's ipo is fully covered with one day to go. the leading managers said 3.7 shares.people formed -- retail investors are key to the aramco ipo. it has become mainly a regional affair. switzerland is pushing ahead with revised capital standards for its biggest banks. they will be forced to set aside an additional $20 billion in reserves to make sure swiss institutions can withstand the crisis. that is your bloomberg business flash. francine: with thanksgiving falling on its latest day possible, there is only 26 shopping days until christmas despite 32 last year. americans are planning to spend more than ever before.

christian schulz and huw van steenis are still with us. oversimplify,o but the u.s. consumer is strong in the world economy is ok. the u.s.e be so sure consumer will continue to be strong? christian: the fundamentals are still clearly in place. the labor market is very strong. ofhave seen a bit idiosyncratic in recent years. wage growth is starting to pick up. check.on is in the stimulating effect of the tax cuts under donald trump as may be wearing off a little bit, but overall we think that the u.s. consumer is still in good shape and will support u.s. and global growth going forward. francine: overall, what does the u.s. consumer need? is it a fix with the u.s.-china

trade war or something through the fed? thestian: i doubt u.s.-china trade war is weighing much on individuals' decisions. the u.s. elections as they approach, given how wide the difference between the various choices could be depending on who the democrats are going to select, could really have an impact on consumer behavior, but probably only once we know who is running against whom, so maybe april or so next year. overall, what the consumer needs is a stable housing market, low interest rates and inflation, high employment, low unemployment, and rising wages. most of these are in place. huw: there is two things i'm focused on. a finger on the pulse of how the u.s. consumer is doing and manufacturing weakness, how much

has it bled to the consumer. to be a bigng acceleration online this year? the online payment spaces red hot and for investors is one of the key topics. they have outperformed the fangs. -- faangs. shiftin the u.k., the from off-line to online is accelerating. the manufacturer of queens in the dust coins in the u.k. lost last year -- coins in the u.k. lost last year because the demand for coins is going down. francine: brexit and pound, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> of course, this is not welcome news, but as you can see, the market reaction so far has been pretty calm, so to speak. >> it is a proxy.

>> basically just another thing like having the tariffs, a thanksgiving present for everyone. >> this too shall pass. >> this is more posturing. >> it will be a headache to figure out what will be a violation of human rights, how will they decide that? >> it is a foregone conclusion that he would sign, so china is prepared or was prepared for this. >> the consensus from the u.s. administration and congress is hong kong -- not be override by the trade negotiations. >> i don't think they have hong kong's freedoms, hong kong's democracy, and hong kong's human rights into mind. it is all about china. francine: some of the reaction, we are hearing from both sides of the conflict after president trump signed legislation

expressing support for hong kong protesters. head to youtube to catch bloomberg's special report of hong kong on edge. house is: the white pushing to wrap up negotiations on a new trade deal with mexico and canada. the agreement known as usmca has become president trump's top legislative priority. the administration and democrats have been locked and talks for months to secure a vote by the end of the year. democrats want more enforcement of labor issues. a powerful winter storm in midwestern u.s. is making life miserable for thanksgiving travelers, dropping close to a foot of snow in some areas, and forced airlines to cancel hundreds of flights. conditions on the west coast stranded travelers in california and oregon.

retail sales plunged more than 14% in japan as a supertight cap shoppers at home, a worse than expected outcome. they are considering a spending package to support growth. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am leigh-ann gerrans. this is bloomberg. exactly two weeks until the united kingdom goes to the polls for the third time since 2016, a big win for boris johnson is predicted. of pole forecasts a majority 68 four -- for conservatives. >> we are saying there is going to be a big conservative majority at the moment, but if you look at the data underlying this, it does not need to be a massive shift in order to change things.

there are 30 seats where we have the conservatives ahead by less than 5%. if you see the labour party closing the gap in those seats, it is very easy to see how we could end up in a hung parliamentary. us for more onng brexit, jeff shankman. us are christian schulz and huw van steenis. there is a pole and another pole. andvolatile are these polls the popularity of the leaders? is to see them as part of the election campaign, they are part of the story but can change the story. it gives a seat by seat analysis for the first time, and many want to use this paul to encourage more -- pole to

encourage more tactical voting. better britain is pro-remain, anti-brexit, they had their own paul. -- poll.. why don't you hold your nose and vote for another candidate who will stop brexit and boris johnson? francine: do we just not trust the polls? jess: this was the one that correctly predicted the 2016 election so it has a halo around it. we actually don't know. time and time again, we have seen them getting it wrong. francine: is this only on brexit or on energized spending and how popular these leaders are? jess: it is absolutely a question of the popularity of the leaders and we have seen jeremy corbyn have a bad week of her accusations of anti-semitism. in the north of england, people

have one thing they want to talk about and that is brexit. many say jeremy corbyn does not know whether he is coming or going, and boris johnson has a clear message and wants to get it done. francine: do you trust the polls? huw: this is one of the most instructive and will influence the outcome for more tactical voting. the end ofsure where season one, season two, or season three of the saga. what i have been struck by is the amount of capital on the sidelines which wants to commit, and in particular people talking about a brexit break their basket and private equity and the merger arbitrage, thinking the there be a flurry if tories will win? we have two weeks to find out. francine: what kind of you a -- what kind of u.k. economy will we be left with?

they have to think about the transition period and the relationship with the e.u. if the conservatives win, no deal risk is off the table. many people would be relieved. tax hikes the labour party is planning would be off the table, probably more relief. the bad news is the conservatives have negotiated a brexit deal which when it comes to the future relationship is very bare-bones, not much more agreement, ands there's only one year to prepare for that. there is not any fiscal stimulus as an antiseptic to help the economy. buts a short-term gain long-term pain if the conservatives win. francine: when you look at the polls, and i will get that chart up that hilary clark did, why are the lib dems not doing as

well? jess: another poll shows joe swinson's popularity has plummeted in the last week. she has not really cut through with voters. the loss in popularity has come from remain voters. she has a very strong message. she said, i can be prime minister, even though she only has 13 seats, and some people find it uncomfortable that the lib dems would completely revoke article 50 without a referendum power, and sheo has not one over the public like they hoped she would -- won over the public like they hoped she would. francine: we are two weeks away and people can change their mind. way you seen a shift in the

we look at things and the way voters latch onto policies at the last minute? huw: trying to be led by the data and get out and about, the data is telling us there is resistance to the labour and lib dems's messages. the one potential goal is where labour and the lib dems make a to allow-- mistake boris johnson an election in his honeymoon period. we keep on hearing that maybe there is money waiting on the sidelines to come back into the u.k. or come into the u.k. when we have more clarity on what happens. will that come after december 12, after the transition period, or what is the catalyst? christian: there may well be some money that comes in after the election because we have the transition period and no hard

brexit immediately, but a lot of the investment we have seen was just maintaining the capacity that companies had as long as brexit is not clear. now that it will be clear that the u.k. leaves and with a pretty rough deal at the end of next year, a lot of disinvestment will happen and capacities in the u.k. will be moved from manufacturing and financial services. i am not optimistic on business investment in the u.k. next year, especially when brexit happens. francine: thank you for joining us, christian schulz joining us from frankfurt. we stay on with huw van steenis of ubs. latin america becomes home to three of this year's worst-performing emerging-market currencies as they trade bills at record lows. emerging markets and structural reforms, and of

course the dollar. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: is bloomberg "surveillance." as the first woman to be elected president of chile twice and to hold the position of united nations director of gender and quality -- equality, she is currently the high commissioner for human rights and is watching closely the unrest in her country. the former to lay in president said the protests -- she lay in president said the protests -- >> it is in other places in the

world as well and it is linked to people who feel they do not have equal access to different opportunities and they do not want to accept that anymore. i think it is important that the government listen to the people. >> do you think the government and police in chile do not listen to the protesters? there has been criticism of the tactics of the police that people think it is not the right way to do it. >> all the protests we have seen governments started listening to the protesters, what they are protesting for, but the solutions they want to convey to their governments, all governments. has responded with law-enforcement. i have received reports for my team and i would like to reach a

final conclusion, and i've talked to the republic several times and send some concerns of what is happening and what injuries we have been seeing, and to look at the protocols because it looks like there has been certain difficulties with the protocols, if we look at the damages, etc. i will wait until my team will come back and gave a full report so we can really do what we need to do. do the report but mainly do recommendations. unrestou feel the social go on? >> i hope there will be an important political dialogue linked to the new constitution. work in arnment, i new constitution. we sent a project for parliament but it was stopped. i hope there is a new discussion. participatory

consultations, two hundred thousand people participated, so this bill was built on the discussion of these people. the government sent they will do the same. i hope that will be an opportunity to sit down and listen to the demands and find the ways to get out. chileope, because i think is a country that has great possibilities and i hope there is this political will from all sides to develop a specific dialogue, plus social measures that need to be taken. this is a continuum on all democratic governments to improve salaries, pensions, health, education, etc. francine: that was the former chilean president. chile is not the only latin american country facing problems.

our executive editor for emerging markets justin carrigan joins us now. great to have you to figure out whether this is endemic and spread out over latin america, or more to do with specific countries. answer tothink the that as there are some similarities, not that many. apart from the fact that in many cases, there are popular protests going on and it is mostly happening in south america, if you discount places like lebanon and hong kong. a continent that is encountering these problems at the moment for a variety of reasons, you just heard her describe eloquently how this is ostensibly a case of inequality, dissatisfaction with the rate at which, if you like, recovery or growth

story is filtering to the masses. it is a similar story in colombia where it is a question of austerity hurting people at the ground level. brazil is a different story in that it is largely a case of perhaps contagion from the region, and a central bank that signaled clearly it will continue to cut interest rates to revive growth, and that is harping -- hurting their real. we have seen the brazilian real andhing records this week, it has not been a good month for latin american currencies as a whole. francine: when you look at some of the concerns over all with emerging markets, does it go back to dollar strength? justin: that is definitely one of the factors. we have seen the dollar really

doggedly staying stronger, despite a lot of forecasts to the contrary. people expecting the dollar to ease off, but it is really how the trade talks have kept the dollar trade on. that is only one of the factors. the other factor of course is this variety of pressures in these countries. what is interesting is that mexico has been largely exempt from this, even though the country has just dropped into a recession. chile is a more long-running one. we have seen problems in bolivia and ecuador to a degree. it remains a case of how long this will last before we get out of the woods. francine: thank you so much, justin carrigan, bloomberg executive editor for emerging markets. we are getting some live

pictures of president emmanuel macron of france and the nato general. we will keep an eye on anything to do with europe and defense. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg isrveillance." still with us huw van steenis of ubs and you wrote project syndicate and you have done a number on crypto and libra. you say the rapid pace and sheer monetary-- indicates a revolution is forthcoming. the choice is to stand in front of a train that is gaining steam or get on board and reap the benefits. where well the big disruption come from when it comes to crypto? huw: one thing which is really key is to unpick what crypto means. is it the token, the payment rails, or the wallet or the data? libra was trying to do all four and little wonder it was

explosive in terms of the central bank reaction. it is much more about the token, can we use crypto technology to improve the encryption and technology of the message? i was struck how they say maybe the ecb should have its own cryptocurrency. francine: will we ever see a cryptocurrency held by a central bank? huw: we need to rein back. voltaire said the holy roman empire was neither holy nor roman nor an empire. the cryptocurrencies that the central banks are not talking about are not distributed. they are basically the same same but with extra encryption and messaging standards. this is more eva lucian mary then revolutionary, dutch evolutionary then revolutionary, but the cost of data is going up as the cost of payments go down.

who leverages that data? that is the most important question rather than whether a central bank does a crypto. francine: is this going back to the trade war or the arms race in the technological space between the u.s. and china? scale and pace of technology change when you go to china or the states. with alibaba's listing, financial has got three quarters of a trillion climb on its super apps. super apps is where it is at and we do not have a super app company in europe. -- is championing clout cloud and payment? maybe we should be thinking about the private space. they thiswhat do understand about crypto? huw: the quality of the

messaging layout helps in the same way we use a zip code to send a letter. actually, written into the tosage is important and simplify and make it frictionless and fraud lists. .rancine: huw van steenis this is what your markets are doing today, thin volumes. a lot of the focus is on tech and these trade worries. yen higher, gold up as well. this is bloomberg.

♪

anchor: president trump signed legislation backing hong kong protesters. china threatens to retaliate. markets left wondering what that means for an interim trade deal. indicates boris johnson's conservative party will win its biggest majority in 30 years, which could boost the odds of getting his brexit deal through parliament. will bes the oil market balanced in 2020 if it sticks to current production levels. the latest sign the cartel will stay the course at next week's meeting in vienna. a warm welcome to this special edition of "bloomberg markets." i'm anna edwards come alive from london -- i'm anna edwards, live from london on this u.s. thanksgiving holiday. here in europe, we see some weakness coming through on european equity markets. we are off session lows, but down about 0.1 percent on the stoxx 600 right now.