growth in six years. crisismerica stays in mode. europe's non-goldilocks scenario. inflation ekes out again. -- ekes out a gain. daimler slashing jobs. the carmaker will cut thousands of jobs worldwide by the end of 2022. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this friday, november 29. obviously, a really quiet day over the last 24 to 48 hours. we are drifting into the weekend a bit lower on s&p futures. you have to imagine there's not going to be a lot of volatility or movement in these markets. close at 1:00. bond markets close at 2:00 p.m. now we want to get today's global exchange. from london to frankfurt to toronto, our bloomberg voices are on the ground with the top

stories. we begin with ongoing protests in hong kong. president trump signed a bill backing protesters. this pump to china to threaten retaliation against the u.s. as it nears a phase one trade deal. the chinese spokesman saying u.s. stopsuggest the sticking obstinately to its course or china will take resolute countermeasures." where does this leave them in that phase one trade deal? reporter: it is very interesting because for several days, we've had the chutneys threatening nonspecific countermeasures, but there haven't really got into any detail. the most we've had is the suggestion they might put a ban on those who drafted the bill from entering china or hong kong, which is a pretty low-key response. the fact that we had several days of this without any suggestions -- without

any specifics suggests beijing is grappling with how to handle this. it is clear the u.s. once a trade deal done very soon. the chinese want a trade deal done as soon as possible. they don't want to bring in tensions over hong kong into those talks, even as beijing is very angry that president trump signed that bill into law. the fact we haven't heard specifics, the longer that goes on suggests the more that china will probably adopt a bit of a lower key response in kinds of any specific. alix: the priority also in the u.k. is to get another deal done. u.k. prime mr. boris johnson is now signaling that present trump should not say anything that could potential he undermined the conservative party election campaign. pm johnson: we have very close relationships and friendships

with the united states at every level of government, but what we don't do traditionally, as loving allies and friends, but we don't do traditionally is get involved in each other's election campaigns. alix: only two more weeks to go. can you give us the latest? os: boris johnson is still ahead in the opinion poll. he's got quite a lead, which suggests he might be on course to get the majority he wants in order to go back to parliament and say you now need to pass the brexit deal. he is. trying to give the focus very much on brexit. he is trying to draw away labour voters by saying the only way to get brexit done is to vote for the tories in this case. but he's coming into a difficult week ahead because the u.s. president is visiting for a few days, and they are obviously quite close. they share common views on things. donald trump has intervened before by backing boris johnson quite overtly in the campaign,

and also commenting on the national health service, which is an important election issue. the concern in the tory camp is that donald trump will come and perhaps make some comments or a tweet, or say something during a briefing that could actually work against boris johnson in the final week or so. . it could help jeremy corbyn. that is something the conservatives are looking to minimize in terms of the amount of time boris johnson spends with donald trump, the photo ops and that kind of thing, and keeping them to a and among -- keeping them to a minimum. alix: thank you very much. german unemployment dropped unexpectedly amid a slump in manufacturing that seems to be stabilizing and trade tensions easing. i am calling it the non-goldilocks scenario. walk us through some of the european data this morning. speaking,generally good news. the economy does remain fairly weak, but the data today goes to moving things in the right direction.

it is still well below the goal of under 2%, but going the right direction, plus beat expectations. growth was the highest in seven months. if you're going to get inflationary pressure, that is probably going to come through wages. that for -- through wages. therefore you need a tight labor .arket noted, german jobs fell --xpectedly, down by 16,000 i should say german unemployment fell unexpectedly, down by 16,000. so there almost 70%, are fractures across the euro area. we need more data. pmi's come out the next week, and the week after that, christine lagarde's first policy

meeting as european central bank president. that is one to watch. alix: thank you so much, paul gordon. now we want to turn to india, with third-quarter gdp coming in at four point 5%, a six year low. india'sus is bloomberg economist. what does india have to to get it higher? reporter: yes, the gdp data just came in moments ago and surprised me, at least, quite negatively. it came in at 4.5%, in-line with consensus. it is going to put pressure on the government to revive the economy, and also the bank of india. so far the consensus estimate of the r.b.i. was to divert it when he five basis point rate cut. i think now they are likely to be pressured into delivering a

bigger rate cut as they get 40 to 50 business points next week. the discourses are likely to move on what else the government can do. from here on, i think the government might need to take more sector specific measures to revive the economy. also, one of the big factors behind the slowdown has been a financial sector shock which is been hurting the economy. what has been happening is in the nonbanking financial sector, or shadow banking sector, hasn't been getting credit, and as a result, the on lending to consumers has really taken a showing upich is now lower consumption figures and

affected the growth numbers for the economy. i think they need to do more to .ix the financial sector rules certainly more policy report -- more policy support is going to be needed. alix: thank you very much. now we had to the u.s., the was important retail season for consumers. the national retail federation expects more than 100 625 million shoppers today. putting me on the phone from d.c. is bloomberg opinion's sarah halzack. what is the early read here? sarah: the early read is good. the data from shopping last night that $4.4 billion were spent online alone just yesterday. good momentum for retailers heading into today, and you're

is notthe black friday the holiday used to be, but it still should be a monster day of shopping. it contributes to that 105 million overall that was shot between black friday and cyber monday. -- that will shop between black friday and cyber monday. it is a big test of their labor allocation. stores increasingly not only have to serve customers in the traditional way, but they have to fulfill online orders. stores,be in there in checking and seeing how retailers do on that front. the good news for them is consumer sentiment is a real tailwind coming into this this holiday weekend. consumers are feeling upbeat and the earnings results we saw come out, a few big ones bumped up

their guidance. walmart, target, best buy. they are suggesting that if retailers were executing well, they have a good chance of bringing up sales. alix: thank you very much. finally, we want to end in toronto, where we await canada gdp this morning after a weeklong rail strike has halted grainnts of oil and across the country. going me is bloomberg some -- is bloomberg's managing editor for canada. this time it is going to be quite important. reporter: we are certainly going to see a slowdown, probably to the tune of about 1.3%, 1.4%, for the quater. consumers taking a bit of a pause. see the impact of that railway strike into november, but it does raise the question,

what does the bank of canada do now? we have not seen a rate cut since 2015. unlike the fed. you've got the highest rates in the g7. there's no asportation of a cut next week. but it raises the prospect of a move perhaps in january or march. it could be sitting on his hands. if the u.s. economy can continue this rebound, that's going to help canada. alix: thank you so much. here is something else i am watching. mercedes-benz current daimler is going to cut at least 10,000 jobs worldwide, and it is not alone. also wound up lowering bonuses for some of its workers. this is r&d for some of the main

german auto manufacturers. you can see just how much it's really ramped up. done where is that blue line, looking about a 9.2 billion euros for this year and next year. a big part of that is electric vehicles. you have higher emission standards coming out of europe, making them switch into different cars. . then you have this really big push for ev's. denolly once about 50 electric vehicles by 2022. program, morehe on your morning trade and analysis in today's first take. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time now for bloomberg first take. from our in-house team of wall street veterans and insiders, luke kawa, brooke sutherland,

and vassili serebriakov, ubs fx and macro strategist. luke, you are playing the role of vincent today. you're dealing with hong kong versus china versus u.s. what do traders actually care about? betterbetter --luke: hair, though, right? this situation is one that, for quite a while, u.s. traders have been very able to enforce a 2 -- therefore, when this clears up, you have the prospect that you downverreact to a day that did relate to the passage of the bill in the senate, and then china's warning it would be forced to retaliate. it is something that has been in the background, but for so long throughout the cycle. the more the issues

cross pollinate, this could be something that takes a little more time to develop. alix: everything is so calm. the billa signing of on wednesday, which you can argue is like taking out the trash. then china's response is very calm. maybe they are both under pressure for a deal. brooke: does this prompt some some of consumer backlash towards american brands? maybe not a direct hit, but it consumer retaliation, or that they do reapply those tariff rates in december. emma: stress warning signs luke:ah: stress warning --

stress warning signs are here. vassili: the market is at multi-decade lows. alix: but aren't the forwards telling us there is a middle of growth? vassili: there are a number of issues. the good thing is stability will pick up, but it hasn't happened yet. alix: we have stress is everywhere in china. the question is, and you get monetary and fiscal stimulus to help? brooke: the u.s. has been surprised at how much economic

pain china has been willing to endure. their hands are tied because they don't want to unleash too much stimulus to continue to encourage this behavior. you want to inject more discipline without also increasing the risk of default and having the pain be too much to bear. but i think china is in a really difficult spot incomes of not only signaling to the u.s., but in terms of what they actually do. think -- and that is a part of the issue in asia as that is a belief we would expect, but there is a need to balance belief against things like deleveraging. this is where china is stuck in particular where normally at this point of the cycle, you would have expected a bigger boost to the economy from the somerities to deal with issues. that the same time, they don't want to create this over leveraging problem.

well,lies globally as that the ones who might be willing to do fiscal stimulus are not able. [no audio] luke: -- keep cutting rates. it probably won't work until you clean up shadow banks a little more, get the credit channel going, and maybe get this go even into higher gear when places in high-growth economies are really needing to get fiscal into gear to support growth. it probably tells you the rest story. alix: when you get the data out of europe, and i bless with the

fact that it is ok. it's not great. it is not amazing, awesome growth, but it is hard to make the proper fiscal stimulus based on inflation now at 1%. vassili: i completely agree. be careful what you wish for in europe. we had potential for german fiscal stimulus, and there is space, but the economy would have to get worse, which is probably not what investors want. brooke: a lot of the contrast in the data is the job cuts, though. saw that from daimler, siemens, volkswagen. at what time does that hit the economy and you need to pump in money to keep the growth going? you never want to root for bad economic news, ever. it is a case of people hoping for bad u.s. data so we get more rate cuts. you don't want to ever do that. but if growth is ever a rounding error, it was probably very

bullish that germany ended up avoiding a recession. you can see the ink was not dry on that growth trend before the finance minister came out and there is no need. it reinforces the state of low inflation and slow but positive growth. it is better than alternatives, but still, i think we all get the sense this is not optimal. this is not the ideal. -- whenen you do one. you do wind up getting some fiscal stimulus like in japan, you have mr. kuroda can really do?so even when you're doing it, it is not working. vassili: i think that is the past we haven't exhausted fully. i think everybody agrees that monetary policy is reaching its places around the world. i think fiscal stimulus is what we're going to be talking about

for several years to come. alix: good. you are going to be staying with me. luke and brooke, thank you so much. to check any of the charts we used on the program, go to gtv . this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." saudi aramco's initial public offering has drawn total bids of $44 billion. 4.9 people applying for shares. the startup plans -- the ipo plans to raise capital by

selling stake in the oil company. bloomberg has learned the traders are acute of -- are accused of mismarking losses. morgan stanley isn't commenting. of theshares of cotto -- british e-commerce company system. to market its robots will sell customer orders for home delivery. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. as we kick off black friday, this may be the only item not on sale, christmas trees. the average cost of a fresh tree in 20 was $78, and that could be headed higher this year. the head of the national christmas tree association says supplies are tight and demand is rising. but if you want a bargain, you

gear tree just before christmas eve. that's a little tight. you've got to decorated and go fast. coming up, we take a look at the biggest risks to growth and what investors should be watching. in the market, it is not a lot. you're seeing a bit of a drift lower her s&p futures, down by about 0.1%. still looking for gains. ford i think at three months now and a road oil eking out another monthsr the month -- now. oil eking out another gain for the month. equity markets close at 1:00. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." everybody.y, s&p futures down by about 0.1%. you're still seeing the third month of gains for global

equities. in the dax, and a gain but the gain despite the fact that daimler will become jobs. inflation moving to 1% in the euro zone. spreads in the u.s. really flat. now at 13, 14 basis points. very different from about three weeks ago in the markets where just weeks away until 202020, and investors are bracing for what the new year has in store. >> our economic outlook has gotten better. . >> now that we are stabilizing, there's more positives within the stuff that matters to markets. >> they near-term pass for global growth is actually up. markets andsset rate markets extend that. >> the overlook for the global economy is relatively stable, but we don't share the near-term optimism of the imf. >> today i think we are sitting in a place where the risks are

significant and not reflect ed. >> we have no reason to believe that turn in the cycle is going to be particularly strong. >> this downdraft is probably behind us. to be earnings are going a bit more sluggish. >> the earnings trends will be weaker >> potentially we will still be locked in a trade war was tariffs, which potentially means higher yields and an economy that is lower. >> what is really bothering me is i don't necessarily see a big acceleration,ry either. >> we debate when the end of the cycle is coming, what is going to push as they are, how long is it going to last. that is a depressing thought to me. alix: this alisa briar called of ubs is still with me -- vassili serebriakov of ubs is still with me. what do you think? vassili: we think growth will pick up, but we are below

consensus in terms of how fast and visitors this word manages. growth rate accelerating around 3.5%. this should be good for risk assets. i think your best that's are going to be in parts of the that have been most affected by the trade wars. we think in the currency markets, the dollar will weaken, , against the dollar, i would look more at the central european currencies, for example. some of the asian currencies as well. the brazilian rail we think -- the brazilian real will ultimately rebalance come of it in is in a weak spot right now. the conditions for stronger growth are there next year. it is just going to take a while

to be reflected in the currency. trades,e all risk on mostly, but it is important to be patient. there's still a lot of headwinds. everyone has been focusing on the trade war. the trade war is sort of a switch on and off kind of issue. don't forget that we have a very weak auto cycle and a very weak tech cycle. those cycles are turning, but in a more gradual manner. this is why we are also expecting recovery to be a little bit more -- a little less steep and fast. alix: fairpoint because those things worked cyclical. they weren't related to trade. vassili: i think trade is more of a supply driven issue, and we get some news and -- some good news and the market is excited. demand issues take longer to work through. alix: for your dollar call, do you see a dollar top, but not a dollar decline?

top,li: it's a dollar beginning with dollar reversal and dollar weakness. it is just happening in a very gradual manner. the dollar is still the best yielding currency, apart from the canadian dollar. those are the two high-yield ears. it is expensive to do that when volatility is low, when you are expected -- when your expected return has a hard time being the .5% carry on the euro, for example -- hard time beating the two point 5% carry on the euro, for example. alix: this is my favorite chart of the last five years. the vix is the white line, and the blue line is treasury volatility, and the yellow is jp morgan fx vol. you are having expectations hopefully for a vol pick up. where you see this level?

there's he's got to say some upside. we are going to go back to the levels of two or three years ago -- will they go back to the levels of two or three years ago? probably not. but before, the market would get excited about global growth, get long some of the high risk currencies or high-yielding currencies. this back-and-forth is what creates volatility on the fx market. you don't get a lot of back-and-forth these days. that keeps things relatively steady. i think we do need to global cycle to really pick up ultimately for investors to regain their appetite outside the u.s.. alix: anything on the euro, the? -- the euro, though? where you stand?

vassili: one of my favorite charts is actually equity inflows into europe from the outside, which have really picked up in the last couple of months. remember, we've never had a euro .ally without that inputs i think taking currency risk on the euro is not a great ad yet still. taking a view on european equities going higher, some of those undervalued european assets, that is what is happening. but it is not in the currency space yet. alix: really appreciate it. good to get your perspective this morning. our thanks to vassili serebriakov for waking up early without this morning. next month's eu leaders summit in brussels. incomingeo cut up with

european commission president ursula von der leyen. we knowder leyen: climate change is existential, but there is a huge opportunity in it, too. we are the european front runner in fighting climate change, new technologies, and green financing. we have 40% of all the patents. it is not only good for the planet. it is not only good for the people. but it will also be good for the european economy because we will knowledgeerts are of and technology, and the frontrunner then. when youlook -- >> look at the friction we have seen between germany and france as head of european commission, do you see a bagel role for nato within eu, or think it is time to consider a bigger european army?

leyen: without any question, nato is the strong this military alliance in the world. the european union, of course we have many european member states in the natoo alliance. where we do not see nato, but the european is called -- the european union is called upon. the european union has the will crises in fight terror. we are building up the defense union knowing that it will become from entry tomato. become ag that it will

front entrant. alix:alix: for more on europe's clement priorities, bloomberg economics senior fellow joins us on the phone. the peterson institute recently published an article on climate change. be should the central banks instrumental in helping to fight climate change? precisely foris the reason that von der leyen just said. this is an existential crisis that touches a part of every aspect of the economy, people's lives, and there is therefore no reason that central banks should have the luxury, if you like, of sitting out this fight. they should, like every other aspect of government and businesses and individuals, be called upon to do their part. alix: how?

there's three ways of seeing it floated. one is that you should take into account climate change when trying to stress test banks. you can have the ecb buying green bonds to help develop that market. or three, you take limit change into your economic forecast. what do you think it peterson? jacob: we have different views, but my personal view on this is you should do all of the above. i think absolutely, you should change when you think about risk capital and banks. the question is, should you make it more costly in capital terms energies" or"brown fossil fuel energies, or should you make it less capital -- or forr capital requirements investments in green energy? i'm sure if there was large-scale issuance of

government backed green bonds for other institutions in the eu come of the ecb will be very happy to buy them because it would lower -- or it would increase the availability of assets they could buy without capitalto change the key of their asset purchase program. alix: from one to 100, what is the pub ability of this actually being implement it -- the probability of this actually being implemented? jacob: i think the political commitment is very clear. agoaw a poll a few days which said that 40% across this should be the is whatissue, and this

people wanted european action on. this is not something european policymakers can afford to sit out. obviously there is economic opportunity for the eu in this area. alix: jacob, appreciate you joining us. take of kierkegaard -- jacob kierkegaard of the peterson institute. now we want to check the first word news. here's viviana hurtado. viviana: president trump flew to afghanistan to have dinner with u.s. troops. . the president also met with the afghan president. he said peace talks with the taliban has resumed. the president is pushing the taliban to agree to a cease-fire. he says the u.s. will keep reducing its troop deployment in the region. how will china hit back at the u.s. over hong kong? the foreign ministry giving another warning. thatng is unhappy president trump signed bills backing hong kong protesters, saying it could delete -- it

could lead to delays in negotiations. time fore or break america's retailers. black friday kicking off the traditional holiday shopping season. for the bargain stores like macy's or kohls, a large percent of revenue is captured in this quarter. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: thanks so much. i'm a morgan stanley ousting traders for allegedly mismanaging. if you have a bloomberg terminal, head to tv . watch us online, interact with charts and graphics, interact with us directly. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." retail chain edge and i'm testing a clothing rental -- retail chain h&m testing a clothing rental service for $37 a week. banana republic and urban outfitters have launched similar services. the fashion chain's chris has -- chain and pollution is criticized for waste and pollution. only kevin grew -- only cabin crew and pilots will get there salaries on time at hong kong airlines. decades,than three

gartman has published the gartman letter. he says he will still be radio, tv, and print interviews, and a podcast may be in the future. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: man, end of an era. congratulations. we turn now to wall street beat. first up, morgan stanley ousts fx traders after a probe. missast four traders marketed securities. then, hedge fund managers see a lackluster tober despite robust gains in the broader market. with one dayipo left to go, more than fully covered after 4 million investors applied to buy shares. joining us is bloomberg's -- andbasak and, parmar

hema parmar. i'm telling you, morgan stanley doesn't lose a lot of money. they don't have a lot of days that they have outsized trading gains and losses. to see $140 million losses on their books, the ceo must have said, what happened? we don't do this. so what happened is these traders allegedly miss marketed securities and tried to hide it. save are going to get caught when things like that happen. time it's not the first we have seen that happened. citigroup was fined by the bank of england for an accurate reporting. there were some flaws in the system. texas recently suspended -- also not texas -- also natixis regionally suspended one of its traders. obviously, risk-taking

has gone down a lot post volcker , and now you have volker unwinding. this is happening when the banks could potentially take on more risk, so you have this is not the greatest thing. alix: our second story is hedge funds. this is your baby. how did they do in this bizarre uber world? -- bizarre october world? hema: october was lackluster. the worst strategy we have seen this year is the macro hedge fund strategy. it's been difficult for them to really make money in this current environment. they haven't done well for a number of years, and some of the bigger hedge funds, but last week we saw louis bacon, a very large hedge fund trader, returning outside capital. their performance hasn't been so great. another macro hedge fund shut

down last week. so it hasn't been too great on that side, but there are some winners. sonali: you were better off investing in gold than investing in a macro hedge fund this year, frankly. [laughter] alix: let's get to our third story, the saudi aramco ipo. how are they doing? sonali: they are doing ok. this is not blowing up as the big offering everyone thought it would become of that they are oversubscribed. only about 10.5% of this offering is going to be non-saudi, so there's a lot of saudi retail investors. they've been talking to abu rain, china, kuwait, all -- kuwait,o bahrain. hema: this is it was to be the centerpiece of the crown prince's plan to modernize the

economy, so we will see how this pans out. alix: ok it's probably not the way that mbs wanted to describe his ipo. coming up, how traders are positioning themselves for december. if you are jumping into your car, tune into bloomberg radio on sirius xm channel 119 and on the bloomberg business at. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time now for trader's take. going me is process it reporter luke kawa. volatility in liquidity today, and how everyone is position for next week. will right now, the story probably be don't be a hero. if you've made it for the year, you are probably sitting on performance. if not, you are probably chasing into december. more about setting up what kind of trade you think will be working for next year.

that is why you are seeing a lot of flows already into european equities. those are getting a lot of love from u.s.-based funds that in europe. that invest in that is interesting because you haven't seen them perform at well lately. the u.s. lately has been outperforming. so it's a bit of a broader geographical value overgrowth play. alix: i also noticed it is hard to find a strategist with a concise call because they are all like, we think it is this, but it feels like there's a good chance that their base case of negativity will come through as well. it is hard to see conviction either way. luke: you see a lot of it will be a year of two halves. i'm doing the same thing in reverse, slightly. i am looking at the 2019 calls that haven't have not worked, and it's been nearly impossible to find a lot of people who have gotten this year right. there's very few. a couple of interesting ones.

one at deutsche bank had the 3100 plus s&p target. it's been a very tough year. i think it's been a year more of of how the in terms treasury rally to find the year. i think that has some semblance of stability there. inn as we've been whipsawed november, that can give people higher conviction if we know there is some stability in rates. alix: good stuff. really appreciate you joining me, luke kawa of bloomberg news. will bep, tom to mark joining me. you do not want to miss his call on the market. this is bloomberg. ♪

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november 29. i'm alix steel. let's take it right from the top. india grows at the slowest pace in more than six years, and bank of korea tries to sound positive despite cutting its outlook. >> i see the economy is near bottom. although i am cautious in making a forecast, starting may 2020, we see global uncertainties ease exports andents in equipment investment. alix: president trump makes a surprise visit to afghanistan. pres. trump: the tele-band wants to make a deal. we will stash the taliban wants to make a deal -- the taliban wants to make a deal. we will see if they want to make a deal. and they want to make a deal because you are doing a great job. that's the only reason they want to make a deal. cut thousandswill of jobs worldwide by the end of

2022. it's a. black eye for germany, all reducing the need for fiscal stimulus. and open up your wallets, it is black friday. >> -- stress test for retailers. it is a test of whether or not these digital systems they've built throughout the year can withstand traffic. alix: a survey from deloitte says almost 80% will go shopping over this holiday weekend. i am trying to get there, guys. in the markets, not a lot of action here. the market closes for equities at 1:00, the bond market at 2:00. not a lot of price action. for me, it is about however what is position for the last month of the year. joining me for the hour is romaine bostick. like,u anchoring for, nine hours today?

omaine: i wanted to be out there with the crowds. [laughter] alix: he does not shut. does did you buy that -- not shop. where did you buy that? tom: neiman marcus. alix: we are just about four weeks away -- what is it with -- guys and cranberry sauce four weeks away from 2020. . investors are bracing for the new year and what it has in store. >> our economic outlook has gotten better. >> there are more positives that matter for markets. >> the most risky asset markets and rates markets front run that. >> the overall outlook for the global economy is relatively stable, but we don't share the near-term optimism of the imf.

>> today i think we are sitting in a place where the risks are significant and not relifted and the valuations. >> we do not see reason to believe the turn and the cycle will be particularly strong. >> we are in a sluggish economy, but this downdraft is probably behind us. >> the economy is going to be a bit more sluggish. >> we think u.s. equities will be un-underperform an ear. the earnings trends will be weaker. >> we are still going to be locked in a trade war with tariffs, which potentially means higher yield and an economy that is slower. >> what is really bothering me is i don't necessarily see this big re-acceleration coming. >> stocks are going to do well on weaker growth, and we are all going to be left scratching her head. >> we debate when the end of the cycle is coming, what is going to push us there, how long it is going to last. honestly, that is a depressing thought. alix: joining us now, kathrin -- us now,, bulltick kathryn rooney vera, bulltick

head of research and strategy, h,d in london, seema sha printable global investors chief strategist. what is your call? tohryn: i think we are going see stable and above trend potential growth for the u.s. economy. romaine: are you concerned that maybe the market has gotten a bit ahead of itself? when you look at the valuations, how far we have come since september, are we pricing into much? kathryn: there's two different scenarios. the real economy is strong, then there's the market pricing. i completely concur. the markets have gotten way ahead of themselves, which is the reason i am actively recommending a put option with march expiry. it cost you a little bit above 3% of your return, and you

protect yourself through two fed meetings, any negative surprises from the democratic primaries, and any fallout from the december 15 tariffs on china, which are still in the offing. , for all of the optimism we have now that the economy in the u.s. and globally may avoid some of the worst case scenarios, there are still some overhangs with the 2020 election , with brexit in the u.k. and some concerns in europe. when you factor that all income or do you want to be positioned here? seema: it's a difficult market at the moment, as you said. so many different asset classes, it is difficult to find where there is still some value. the area to think about, we like europe increasingly, although there are still concerns, whether it is german fiscal stimulus, lori still about brexit.

we like emerging markets. we think there is some value there. increasingly, we are looking at the s&p 500 for 0% to 5% returns. we are seeking real estate is our favorite pick. alix: what i am also interested in is the range of outcomes for next year. i want to show you this chart some of the s&p high-end on the low end of strategist estimates. we are arranging almost 100 points. it basically tells me that no one has any idea what is going to happen next year, so positioning yourself is made much more difficult. seema: i think that is key here. a lot of the forecasts are resting on the is something that there will be a partial trade deal. if that doesn't come through, you're looking at potentially a very different perspective. on top of that, because you've had most of the movement in equities driven by multiple expansion, not really a stronger underlying economy, if things go

wrong for any reason, you could see a very quick unraveling of equity markets. i think that is why you're seeing such a huge dispersion across forecasts. kathryn: i agree with that. x year, bank on volatility. bank on any negative catalysts from the political sphere, whether from a very left-wing person from the democratic party who could come in and take the nomination, or from some fallout from the impeachment process. a lot of it is already priced in, but there is volatility. you have to protect yourself and protect your accumulated return in front of this downside. one of the ways seema mentioned as alternatives. i agree with that. building up your cash position, buying options to protect yourself. these are ways that you don't have to buy into this herd mentality that the markets are going higher forever. talk about that mentality. one thing about the rally over the past few months, it has been

concentrated in a lot of those large mega cap names. we've seen outperformance from others as well, but it is still the apple, microsoft, united health, those sort of companies. does that create a little bit more risk should that unraveling force in? kathryn: you are exactly right. the recent upside on the s&p 500 is almost exclusively tied to tech shares rising. so yes, a market based on one istor or three stocks vulnerable to downsides in those sectors and did not stock. so i would be very careful at current levels. romaine: a lot of folks are looking to protect themselves. kathryn was talking about going into options. obviously you can do it by picking the right stocks. he mentioned real estate. are there any other defensive or defensive like areas that you

would say would be a good place to look to as we head into 2020? of the areas, we still like mega caps. you maintain your overweight to make a caps, maybe reduce the large caps area, but also play a little bit with the small caps. if you are going to get a slight uptick, and we believe there will be a sluggish upturn next year, that means small caps could outperform. but it is really about protecting, as well as trying to be plugged into the market. alix: where are the risks, in particular when you talk about turn of assets? the more you go into alternative assets, if you have players in the market who don't understand it -- and i am not talking about you, but more retail -- what is the risk? seema: we are trying to tell investors there is no reason to reach for yield. yields are really low, you don't need to go to the high-yield space.

but in liquid areas, at least you are getting a bit of a pickup. the key is global diversification. diversification across regions and asset classes. by no means put all your eggs in one basket. you also have to consider that that is where you are going to get a bit more upgrade. with real estate, it tends to be more insulated from the geopolitical shocks he would have. you would have to pick the to mr. cut economy -- the domestic economy and still protect yourself against all the risks present. kathryn: i am wondering what your view is with regard to negative interest rate policy, and any bubbles you see in the markets or across the markets engendered from negative interest rate policy, quantitative easing, even in europe, where you're located. european central bank's really pumping the markets, pushing investors out the yield curve, out the risk curve, potential he

accumulating positions and risk that he or she should not be positioned in. this is absolutely the theme for 2020, we think. they are walking away from negative policy rates because the concern of having created an asset price bubble in swiss banks. they believe negative rates have generally been counter productive. in germany, we hear signs that savings have increased because of number of people out there believe that in big of rates will get lower and lower. so we do think that the ecb and the bank of japan, there's not going to be further rate cuts next year. that's not to say you will get a massive selloff in global bonds because you think they are going to keep expansion going for the balance sheet. we think there will be a push for fiscal easing, but not very significant. romaine: in terms of protection, we have a viewer question. . a lot of folks waking up on this post thanksgiving morning, on "daybreak:

americas." kathryn: i think it is a good idea to position yourself in a real asset, even the physical aspect of gold. if we are right, and seema concurs with my theory that negative policy is a detriment, especially in current markets, we keep seeming to dig ourselves deeper and deeper. to extend the economic expansion , it's just take negative rates a little lower. maybe it will work this time. let's do another round of qe. regardless, admit be unconscious of the negative repercussions that could come to the fore over the coming years. i do like the gold trade. i think you should expect gold to go higher. alix: kathryn rooney vera of

bulltick and seema shaw of principal global investors, thank you. we will break down india's sputtering growth next. this is bloomberg. ♪

yes growth slowing down. the economy grew at its slowest pace in six years, so what do you do? with a still are kathryn rooney seema shawltick and of principal global investors. where do you like investing in em? kathryn: emerging markets is really becoming consensus. a lot of people are saying go overweight and emerging markets, and it is not a bad trade.

latin america is slowing down and prone to a lot of domestic come up, as you can see in columbia -- domestic come old -- seestic tummult, as you can in colombia, bolivia, chile. chinese consumption i think has further to run. within emerging markets, i would say look at china. romaine: there's a consumption story here, but also an fx story. when you overlay the strength of the dollar on top of the opportunities, how do you see it playing out? seema: i think that is going to be key for emerging markets. don't see much further dollar strength. i think that is the first thing to consider. we do expect there to be global stabilization in the economy. treasuriesyou have having that big pickup over other yield around the world, it

is going to continue to attract capital, so we don't see much room for dollar weakness, but at least no movement up. that does play well for emerging markets. --otally agree with c with kathryn. romaine: you mentioned the fiscal side of the equation for some of these nations, monetary policy wise. america, everyin major sovereign has cut rates, with the exception of col -- of colombia. monetary policy is where it's at. what i've been pushing for, especially in europe, and i would love to hear seema's views on this, is supply-side reform. deregulation, tax code some litigation, labor markets like civility. these are the things that incite

real gdp growth, not negative interest rates, not quantitative easing, not even government spending. you can get a near-term spark from fiscal policy come about what you really need, especially in europe and latin america, are these structural, fundamental economic changes. alix: but if you get that, like china has been trying to, moody's says you will have more corporate defaults. you have a steel producer defaulting on debt. it is hard to do, and it might not work. seema: europe is a perfect example of that. there are a number of countries with had -- of countries which have tried and suffered deficiencies. you go through weakness for a number of years before you come out the other side. for governments who tint to be short-term, it is a difficult decision to make. for europe, the positive thing is with christine lagarde, she's bringing in a lot of imf policies into the ecb.

she's posting for fiscal stimulus and investment, into infrastructure. hopefully we will see some movement, although i don't expect it to be enormous. romaine: that is a good point because when we talk about fiscal stimulus, different types of fiscal stimulus produce different results. when using about what lagarde seems to be pushing and what you see in other countries, will that end up with different results? kathryn: sure, government transfers has a different impact then does capital investment, which is infrastructure. germany has the space to do fiscal stimulus. if we are looking within europe, germany is one country that i would say, if we do get a u.s.-china trade accord, germany stands to disproportionately benefit because they are the export powerhouse of the region and of the world. alix: but no way that they do fiscal, right?

you heard even before you got that anemic growth in the fourth quarter, the finance minister being like, we don't want to do it, and unemployment is actually falling. so why would they even think about it now? seema: absolutely. prettygot the bund yield much all negative. why is the government not taking advantage of this for fiscal stimulus? but that pushes going to be on the green side, and not very significant. but if there is a deal in play between the u.s. and china, then germany really stands to benefit, but they are less likely to go ahead with the fiscal stimulus which they need more, arguably, then the trade deal. to bet think it's going anywhere close to a 2% growth rate in that area. kathryn: you're right, and i think if we get some trade accord, germany doesn't need the fiscal stimulus. but it is also a good time to enter the markets in germany with the entire yield curve

negative. germany is on the cusp of recession. all of that is currently baked in. europe has done pretty well so far this year, but there could be some room for upside, so i would look in that space. alix: kathryn rooney vera of bulltick and seema shaw of principal global investors are sticking with us. coming up, daimler says it is going to be cutting about 10,000 jobs. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak." saudi rim goes initial public offering -- saudi aramco's initial public offering has drawn 4.9 million people applying for shares. the saudi government plans to raise more than $25 billion by selling 1.5% stakes in the oil company. at least four morgan stanley foreign-exchange traders ousted for allegedly hiding losses of as much as $140 million.

they are accused of mismarking securities to conceal the losses. the loss was linked to emerging market currencies. morgan stanley isn't commenting. by the end of 2022, mercedes-benz parent daimler plans to cut thousands of jobs worldwide. the personnel chief telling bloomberg more than 10,000 positions are likely to be eliminated. daimler is trying to revive profit margins that have been heavy investment in electric and self driving vehicles. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. i have a chart that shows you the why. this might be my favorite chart today. this is all of the r&d for the major european automakers. you can see on much it has increased in the last few years. daimler is that blue line. that is truly an easy story. -- truly an ev story.

they don't necessarily have the technology to do it, but they've got to do it or else they are going to be far behind. romaine: you're going to see the winners and losers. that's really what it is going to boil down to. it is not that they are spending, but how they spend it. gm obviously was pretty aggressive in doing this. volkswagen as well. but if any of these come at is are going to survive in the future, they've got to be leaner and divert that money to electric. athryn, how do you structures this money that has nothing to do with trade? romaine i think that as said, the cup needs need to be leaner to continue to produce -- the companies need to be leaner to continue to produce good earnings. we saw this last quarter come out negative, but marginally so. going into the future, they have to be leaner, smarter, more

efficient. with regards to germany, even if you get some incipient economic growth, you could have the major corporations in conjunction with some phase i trade accord really outperforming this next year. alix: i think volkswagen is 150 billion euros in five years, some thing like that. coming up, the holiday shopping season officially kicking off in the u.s. with black friday. bought something and tapped out. where are they buying, and what? we will break all that down next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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and get a notification the instant someone new joins your network... only with xfinity xfi. download the xfi app today. alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am alix steel. thanksgiving.r having some fun on set. it is a soft trading day. s&p futures off .2%.

similar in the fx market. you did wind up getting better data out of europe. inflation stabilizing around 1%. the euro weaker. the spread in the u.s. continues to haul around 14 basis points. shoppers hunting for deals into the stores this black friday but many more heading online, crashing some sites with heavy traffic. we are joined by kathryn rooney vera and seema shah joins us as well. do you like retail? do you like consumer discretionary? seema: yes. there is a lot resting on this. this time of year is so important for retailers. -- we have more concerns and retail companies because of the margins being compressed and we would rest entirely on those trade tariffs. if they go ahead, we think the

forecast for retail will be negative, if they do not go ahead, the market will love it. romaine: the consumers what saved us from recession. a lot of people agree that was the case in 2019. there is some concern some of this is built on increases in consumer credit, consumer debt. is it still at a level with regards to the debt picture, household spending, is that still at a level where we can be confident of the consumer spending trend will continue? kathryn: if the fed stays low in terms of rates and global central banks continue to keep rates exceedingly low, then the bubble does not burst. across the board, from the u.s. consumer to the brazilian consumer took corporate to sovereigns, everyone has taken out deck. it makes sense. rates are very low. my concern is when inflation comes back, and i think a misconception globally in the market is inflation as an

economic phenomenon is dead and buried, when it does come back we will see some pain. alix: it looks confusing to me because it looks like the health of the consumer has gotten better when it comes to housing, versus the orange line which is overall consumer debt service ratio. at what point do you get nervous? kathryn: i get nervous when we see inflation come back. that is when rates are going to go higher because the fed and the ecb are going to eventually have to come off of negative deposit rates. the fit will have to hike rather than cut. stays on holdd the entirety of 2020. if inflation does come back, and it is supposedly a monetary phenomenon, then you will see pain. you will see corporate's that have over level themselves, have difficulty repaying their debt obligations. you will see consumers that have indebted themselves and have

difficulty in coming back. i think a lot is tied to global central bank interventionism, proactive monetary policy, there is where i put a lot of the problem. a lot of it, not to sound alarmist, is it reminds me of the last crisis we had in 2008 when you hear guys saying the market will keep going higher, real estate will keep going higher, now the level of complacency in the market is incredible. alix: i remember those days. for more on retail, we are joined by stacy widlitz, s w retail advisors joining us from london. what is your early read on black friday which is now spreading to europe? certainlyck friday, the online numbers for yesterday look like they are up 20%. black friday now is on thanksgiving day and in many cases black friday has been moved weeks and even a month before the actual day today.

the growth that is online of 20%, that is pre-much in line with what we have seen for most of retailers that have reported already. romaine: when you take a look at what is going on, we know that this time of year the spending levels are typically higher, but so are the discounts. i'm wondering from a retailer perspective, does this end up being a profitable period for them if the discounts end up being too heavy? for some yes and for some no. black friday is globally. it is in germany. france is trying to get rid of it. it is in the u.k. it is all over. everybody is under pressure to meet what the neighbors are doing. 20% off is the basic bar. you are still making money but there are others like the gap and old navy and victoria's secret who are 40% or 50% off the entire store.

that is a harder proposition. showing pictures of folks hanging out in the stores, doing their thing. the brick-and-mortar experience is not quite what it used to be on black friday, where people would rush through the doors. now everyone wakes up in the morning it goes on to their computer, or some people? stacy: exactly. you're right. it used to be line-up thanksgiving night at 5:00. some people still do that and crash in the doors. now it is a more extended period. retailers are making it so easy and then you can pick up your product a few days later in-store if you feel like it rather than have it delivered and that is a win-win for the consumer and also for the retailer because that transaction, if you pick it up in store, is the most profitable one for retailers. nordstrom talked a lot about gaining share in that target is the one doing the best in terms of getting the consumer to pick

up the digital order so the gross margins are higher. romaine: -- alix: i want to get your take, because we have seen the rise of rental clothes. it is not new, but it does feel real stores like h&m are doing that. people are not owning clothes for longer, they do not buy them, they rented. at is that playing to the changing retail world? stacy: i think that is going to be a huge issue going forward. z'sink millennials and jegen have made it clear that sustainability is key for them and purchase decision-making and they do not see the need to pack their closet with permanency. rather they are going up and renting and because of the success of rent the runway, a lot of retailers are doing it themselves. inventory management is difficult, a lot of them are fulfilling it through a company

called castle. i think that is the future and could represent up to 20% of apparel sales going forward and eat into that business. definitely keep that on your radar. romaine: when you take a look at the discounts we have been seeing at certain retailers such as gap, which seems to be in this perpetual state where it always has to offer a discount in order to get people in the store, how to some of these retailers rebound once you get back into january and february where they would have to go back to a full price model. are they still going to get people into the stores or onto their sites? stacy: that is a great question. some of the retailers like victoria's secret or the gap have been on permanent promotion for years. 50% off today is not exactly like the biggest deal in the world for the gap. it is one of their highest, but

it is not like this never happened. for them, they have trained the consumer never to pay full price. it is very difficult to walk your way back from full price. target,r retailers like they have done an amazing job with private labels and being differentiated and redoing their stores, so they can have promotions today but they will get those consumers to pay full price later because the product is truly differentiated. and value-oriented. alix: stacy, thank you very much. we appreciate this perspective. stacy widlitz, great to see you. were talking earlier about consumer discretionary and retail. is there a derivative play to be had if you want to play the consumer but do not want to go into this space? if you want seema: to play consumer discretionary, you need to find a different sector that can be plugged into the cyclical.

some people will be confused by this, but we think there is an opportunity in financials. u.s. financials, not european. we still like technology. many of the structural parts of technology we think will do well if there is an upturn, even if it is sluggish. romaine: she makes a good point. if you want to plan to consumer trends you do not have to buy into a gap or nordstrom. there are other ways to do it. what are some of those ways? the toy market. a quarter of toy purchases are online. it is much more convenient. one thing i will add a lot of people are concerned about is the december 15 increase in tariffs. we are talking about the tariff covering the totality of chinese imports, which could impact electronics. iphones, laptops. one thing i will tell the consumer that could be worried about this in the holiday season

is the inventory has already been imported for this year. you do not have to worry about it. this year's inventory has already been brought in. the tariff impact, were they go through december 15 will not impact this year. rather it be something for 2020 and the holiday season starts right around the time of the presidential election, which should make for some interesting times. alix: thanks a much. kathryn rooney vera and seema shah. what we did not get to is how do you rent clothes? they will fall apart after you buy them. no longevity. romaine: it seems like it is geared toward women -- although i guess they're starting to see some of the men's lines getting into it. alix: i do not quite understand it. we will give you an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here. viviana: we begin with thanksgiving day surprises from president trump.

he went to afghanistan to have dinner with u.s. troops and meeting with the afghan president. he said peace talks with the alabama -- with the taliban have resumed. he says the u.s. will keep reducing troop deployment in the region. how will china hit back at the u.s. over hong kong? today the foreign ministry giving another warning. beijing is unhappy the president signed the bill backing hong kong protesters. there is speculation it could lead to delays in the trade deal being negotiated. in the past, china has threatened the u.s. over various issues. not much has happened. in canada, the economy slowing sharply over the third quarter. down from a revised 3.5% pace. there was an -- there was a drop in exports and a drop-down in business inventories. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: thanks so much. in terms of the currency rate,

we are seeing the cad make a little bit of gains. i am into this because it is an oil story but it is also part of this rail union strike that has been resolved but might have an impact on next quarter, particularly for inventories. they cannot move stuff. people being laid off, stuff just sitting there not being able to be transported. romaine: i am wondering how much you could read into this data point. we still sell residential investment relatively strong, as well as consumer spending. if they can sort out some of the political or labor issues -- alix: the labor issues keep cropping up, you have auto issues in the u.s. and the rail strike, something to think about. coming up, we'll look into the boutique fitness space. anthony geisler will make romaine and i feel bad for not working out. browse all of the features on gtv . this is bloomberg.

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viviana: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak." i am viviana hurtado with your bloomberg business flash. protests in hong kong dragging down the city's third-largest airline. hong kong airlines saying demonstrations has severely affected it. only overseas staff will get there november wages on time. everyone else will be paid on december 5. apple air pods firing up to be one of asia's top stocks. shares of china's lugs share position assembled -- tripled. the company assembles the apple products. this year sales of air pods are expected to double to 60 million. stands to be the biggest beneficiary.

that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: time for bottom line. we will look at companies worth watching. i am watching saudi aramco. we had the retail tranche of saudi aramco will close today, it is oversubscribed. 120% of the portion set aside for retail investors. i'm not surprised, but i wonder if it is enough to generate the kind of buzz been solomon once -- mohammed bin salman wants. romaine: obviously this a domestic focused investor base. it will be interesting is to see once it does price in saudi arabia whether that will expand globally. i think that will take more cruising through their financials. alix: and a little bit more politics horse trading. what are you watching? romaine: tech data, this is the big distributor of a lot of tech products. some of it goes directly to companies like apple and microsoft. buying them out for $145 a share

and originally a 140 -- $130 offer, then cnbc is reporting one of the bids was from berkshire hathaway and warren iffett, which made it appear they connect the dots that is why apollo ended up at $145. this deal looks like you will go through a value company around $5.6 billion. a pretty big deal in the textbased, not a household name but a big deal. apparently berkshire thought it could do something with this. berkshire has been outbid quite a bit over the last couple of years. alix: despite their pile of cash. another company we are watching is exponential fitness, one of the world's largest and fastest growing franchise companies, boutique brand that includes pilates, cycling, and stretching workout classes. we are joined by anthony geisler, exponential fitness founder and ceo. thanks for joining us. from your lens, how is business,

how's the consumer, how is that market? it has been amazing. we continue to grow at a rapid pace year-over-year. we are not seeing any trends of any kind of downturn. consumers continue to come in, same-store sales continue to do well. we have only -- we have over 1300 locations open and continue to open more. romaine: what is the main buffer for your business. anytime you have a fitness company run the risk that what is hot today will not be hot tomorrow. we are all spinning? alix: you spin? romaine: no. alix: i do not see it. romaine: it is popular now. there are a lot of things popular 10 years ago that nobody does now. how do you buffet your business against that? anthony: exponential has the best and boutiques. stuff like yoga. romaine: i do yoga. alix: that i can see. thosey: yoga, pilates,

things have been around for a long time. that is the core of our business holdings. then we have dance and rowing and stretching and running. correlated with what people do in their daily lives. alix: how do you compete with the likes of peleton. anthony: they are in a different market than we are in. we are communal animals so people love to get out of and work with people with similar interests. peleton is a great piece of equipment to work out at home with, but we focus on the market of people who love to work out together. romaine: this kind of boutiqueification of fitness has been interesting. you are cobbling these together under one umbrella. you think there is a risk from a perception standpoint that somebody might say he is just some gigantic corporation. do people worry about that or is that a not a concern?

anthony: not a concern because we are a franchise. the person owning and operating this boutique is operating in their community, in the local shopping center. even though we are that bigger what they are getting is the independent owner operator that has part of the community. alix: how do you keep the number of stores set? you do not want to over store yourself. how do you balance that? anthony: we use a lot of data research. we look to a lot of our members to figure out where they live and how they operate. with that, we want to make sure -- the same exact thing, we are staying in line. romaine: are most of your franchises in urban areas or are you seeing more success in suburban? anthony: both. with 1300 plus locations in 46 states we are having to operate in all sorts of different

environments, but they are doing really well because they're a part of the community. alix: great to see you. thank you so much anthony geisler, exponential fitness ceo. thanks so much to you romaine. coming up, warning signs of a market top. more on today's technically speaking. if you are heading out and jumping in your car, tune into bloomberg radio heard across the u.s. on sirius xm channel 119 and on the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time for technically speaking. joining me as a superstar of technical, tom demark, to mark analytics-- demark founder and ceo. you've been looking for a market top. are we almost there? tom: we are almost there, finally. we have been coming very close

and one component of identification of market tops and bottoms was present but the other wasn't. received what we call a 13, which is an alert that a potential market top existed. we are not fulfilled the upside price protection. about a week and a half to two weeks later there was a second 13. we came within four points of our price objective. it remained stubborn throughout the decline in august and september. we stayed positive throughout the period, which is unusual for us, because we saw the trend is up and we remain positive. if today we are able to stay above friday's low, i mean wednesday's low, and rally as high as 317352, the market could top. stocker of the other indices have satisfied the requirements of price fulfillment, the equivalent of 3173, and they also require the

-- satisfy the requirements of the price pattern. the only one that is deficient is the s&p and the qqq. they both require one to two more days. and seasonally the day after thanksgiving has been strong. it is a shortened day and i'm disappointed, but we saw an opportunity. today is not the monday or tuesday for the market to top. we have compared the current market with the rally we experienced in june and july. it was 38 trading days. this week were reported 38 trading days and the trajectory to the upside is identical. you can see in the chart. alix: we have to leave it there. tom demark of demark analytics. that does it for "bloomberg daybreak -- americas." ♪

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪

coming up, little sign that support for hong kong protesters is derailing trade talks. optimism rising. the worst is over for euro. german unemployment unexpectedly dropping. does care retail economies in america -- two retail economies in america where target thrives and macy's dives. here is your friday morning price action. four day winning streak on the s&p 500 into today. 500, -.2%. the s&p a stronger dollar in g10, euro-dollar south of 1.10. treasury yields grinding higher to 1.78 on the u.s. 10 year. let's begin with the big issue. can hong kong tensions and trade talks remain on separate tracks? >> one story. >> two tracks. >> the political story is important. >>