tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg December 1, 2019 6:00pm-8:01pm EST
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morning.ry good i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. shery: good evening from global headquarters in new york. i'm shery ahn. sophie: and i'm sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: asia." ♪ haidi: top stories this monday. china's factory output prices, manufacturing improving. above 50 for the first time since april. nissan looks ahead to the new ceo as they face slumping prices
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-- slasheed to skash costs and jobs. and in hong kong, police and protesters clash again after a week of relative calm. shery: consumer inflationshery:. year cpi numbers. growth of 0.2 percent. but this is missing expectations that we would see a rise of 0.7%. despite the missive estimates, we are seeing growth from the previous month when the inflation number was flat. month on month, disappointing 0.6%. a contraction of estimates were for a slight growth. this is contraction from the previous month of october. we know south korea faces challenges including negative base effects. last year in 2018, we saw a
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higher food and crude oil prices back then. the year on year number remains under pressure so we are seeing growth of only 0.2% for the month of november. those expecting third-quarter gdp numbers out of south korea on tuesday, after the bank of korea kept the rate unchanged. inflation numbers looking not too strong of the moment. australia has just kicked off trading. sophie: aussie shares opening on the upside a little bit on a busy start to december with a bunch of pmi data do this monday. a private reading from china will be official. kospi will be put to the test on the continued stuff we saw. let's check in on the aussie dollar. it is carrying earlier gains while the kiwi is gaining ground on the term of trade, rising
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more than forecast in the third quarter. in the end, holding steady after a weekly decline and checking in on the british pound, as the tories lead in the polls. let's get you to first word news with paul allen in sydney. paul: boris johnson will paint the conservative party as a champion of law & order this week. london recovers from a terror attack that killed two people. the deaths throw a shadow over the election campaign and threatened to narrow the tory lead over labor less than two weeks out from the pope your the prime minister says he's determined to tighten security laws and blames opponents for failing to act. thehat i have said since last three or four months is i think the whole system of automatic early release, which was brought in by the labour party, it was under that system -- i have only been in office --
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>> you are leader of the conservative party. the conservative party is in power for two years. >> one of the reasons we are having this election is because we have speech blocked by parliament amongst other things, brexit.t rex it -- we need to get it done to move forward. i think it's ridiculous. i think it's repulsive. paul: the german government faces crisis after its coalition partner elected a new leader seen as a threat to chancellor merkel. her own choice to head the social democrats was soundly fierce couldn as a except the christian democrat led government.they say they have no intention of toppling merkel, but may issue policy to -- demands the chancellor might find hard to accept. the european unit is beginning a new era with leadership changes. jean-claude juncker being replaced estimation president. christine lagarde succeeds ardo draghi at the ecb. the new lineup gathers to honor the 10th anniversary of the lisbon treaty. beens oil strategy has
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upset with one leading member stepping away from the generally agreed plan. iraq says the cartel and its independent allies are considering deeper curbs on production despite indicating last week currently border -- levels are sufficient. the group meets this week and is expected to prolong restrictions belong -- beyond the experian march. -- beyond the expiration in march. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. gauge ofe latest china's manufacturing sector jumped unexpectedly, signaling a recovery and government support. indexal manufacturing growth of 50.2, thus the first time it was above 50 since april. our china correspondent tom mackenzie this story in beijing. give us context whether this is bottoming out or a
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turnaround of recovery. reporter: if you look at the data on face value, this is much better than expected. in terms of the manufacturing pmi, the strongest number since april, nonmanufacturing, the strongest since march, if you look at production and demand, much stronger. in terms of overall business sentiment, that also improved. look at new export orders out of pmi.anufacturing that reached a seven month high suggesting the easing trade tensions are having a material impact on the ground. nonmanufacturing coming in strongly in the expansionary area. 54.4, services picking up. things like i.t., finance, and logistics. here are the caveats. there are of course seasonal effect. we had the october national day holiday, a number of days where work. were not going to that was changed in november so you have a tick up in the number of days of people working.
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onn of course, this data saturday goes against the grain for the rest of the data points in china whether that is export or factory gate prices. that is the context. the question is whether we can read into this. most economists say you have to wait until at least the first quarter of 2020 before we can start to make that call. by the way, we are going to get that private sector survey around 9:45 local time. that is focused on smaller, private companies and it should steer about how broad-based manufacturing is. shery: of course, a game changer for the chinese economy could be a resolution to the u.s.-china trade war. any progress? reporter: we are waiting to see whether or not china will "retaliate" to the decision by president trump to sign off on the pro hong kong bill. they said they would do that without any details yet.
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we have heard from a state backed tabloid. if this is accurate the way they are characterizing it, certainly we have clarity into what's holding up the talks at this point. they say it's not good enough just to remove the threat of december 15 tariffs by the u.s. the chinese side wants to see a rollback of those tariffs. they are also apparently concerned the u.s. are trying to pin them down on an exact number in terms of agricultural purchases, so they are pushing back on that and they have a line into commentary for the suggesting interference in china's domestic affairs, and that's on log to the hong kong bill signing. givess is accurate, it insight into what is holding up trade talks when we have potentially an unofficial deadline of december 15. that's when the u.s. has this -- suggested these additional tariffs could come into play. haidi: the balance of risk and the potential reinsurance of
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recovery being what they are, we have heard from the pboc. is there any indication there's a change in strategy at all? no.rter: essentially, we heard from the pboc governor. no sense that the central bank is planning any time soon to follow in the footsteps of the likes of the ecb or the doj in terms of unconventional monetary policy. the governor wrote a piece over the weekend saying monetary policy should remain "prudent with room for adjustment." he points to a potential for a prolonged downturn in the global economy, a slightly bleak outlook. he is saying they should stick the pboc to conventional policy for as long as possible and do not want to go down the pass of -- path of competitively lowering rates to zero. comments from the governor come
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from a crucial meeting of the top economic and financial leadership in beijing, expected at some point in december where they set the growth targets. change.lly, no major they will continue a targeted, focused approach. shery: tom mackenzie in beijing, thank you, our china correspondent. more on the outlook for china's economy later on. of course, we have inflation numbers out of south korea. year, month year on on month, core inflation all missed estimates. we saw deflationary pressures, contraction of 0.6%. the estimate was for inflation numbers to grow. this is showing a slack and the south korean economy. be ok holding steady, but we are expecting gdp
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numbers holding steady as well. export numbers over the weekend dire.retty we are talking about november exports falling 14.3% from a year earlier, the sixth consecutive month of double-digit declines in south korea. latest.lk about the study when bok fall we are seeing not only inflation coming in lower than expected, but the economy sending signals it may be tanking again? >> right. the korean economy is in a dire situation. datarday, korean traded was disappointed with export slumps continuing for a 12 straight month. but under the hood, there is some positive changes coming. firstly, the volume increase in november, led by key korean export items like semi
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conductor, petrochemical products, and autos. there is some hope for a rebound in 2020. net volume increases are some of the positive changes the equity has been longing for for a long time. secondly, the slide in korean exports in china as moderated in november to the least since april. the outlook for korean exports trading, the main partner, has bolstered china's pmi improvement of the weekend. that indicated the mainland factory output and activity could strengthen in the future. market sentiment has been a little jittery after some are saying hong kong is supporting the protesters, but underlying market confidence is not likely
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to be shaken too much, as long as the deal remains on track and theglobal economy rebuilds potential for rebound in 2020. haidi: we are also seeing an interesting divergence when it comes to treasury yield, which has not moved very much, where are as we are seeing a higher dollar-yen. do we expect this to continue, and what opportunities are within this divergence? reporter: there was quite an interesting divergence that you mentioned. has climbeden together with positive trade progress, but that was a little bit testy. after the signing of the hong kong bill, but i think the chinese response was not really further escalation of retaliation threat.
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we could see some of the rebound in business confidence and spending. then i think it should move higher to converge within the dollar yen. haidi: thank you so much. some breaking news. filing the market firm for chapter 11 bankruptcy as has been planned after it reached a deal that would wipe out its debt, about $3 billion, and return ownership to its creditors. lenders and bondholders with more than 70% of its loans and 80% of the notice signed onto the chapter 11 reorganization to keep acosta in business. acosta is a company that has provided marketing and consulting services to some pretty well-known household brands like coca-cola, kellogg's, campbells. the business has been seeing a
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quick squeeze as customers handle more marketing tasks at companies and house. acosta filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy, that just crossing the bloomberg. we will get you more details on that story as they become available to us. looke meantime, taking a at emerging markets. could they need more than just the surprise recovery in china's pmi? we willdiscuss the process. shery: a challenge ahead for ross mcewan. this is bloomberg. ♪ is is bloomberg. ♪
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some of the protesters, but we are seeing this resumption back to what has been the new normal over the past almost six months. stephen: this might be a case of the protesters, one, they are emboldened by the district council election victories over the pro-establishment past pro-democracy candidates, and also the signing of the hong kong human rights and democracy act exacerbated by carrie lam not giving into any of the concessions. status quote on the local government front. up somed of builds animosity again, even more, if possible, emboldened by other victories. they did take to the streets. it started brewing again saturday evening when protesters started marching. they also set fire to an mtr
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entrance. it continue to sunday. there was a fairly peaceful march in support of the u.s. action up to the consulate, nearby here, but then it turned more sour in the evening. there was some teargas that was fired to disperse protesters in the key tourist area at the tip of the peninsula. there was also some vandalism in the nearby district. all in all, more teargas fired, more bricks hurled by protesters, and more condemnation from the chinese side. we had comments over the weekend from beijing saying they strongly oppose an opinion piece published in the local newspaper , the south china morning post, by the u.n. high commissioner for human rights. the leader urged for an independent commission or inquiry into police brutality. the chinese government accused her of meddling and emboldening protesters. keep in mind as well the new police commissioner here in hong
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kong, i believe on saturday, said an independent probe would be on trust. more fuel on the fire for protesters. shery: does this mean there will be no respite for retail sale numbers?we get another batch this afternoon. stephen: retailers have absolutely been battered over the last six months or so as the unrest has escalated. some of the protesters have taken their ire out on particular shops. we have seen the companies .inked to china in october, the estimate year-over-year of retail sales down 28.8%. we knew it was going to be bad because on friday, we got the tourist arrival numbers. usually for golden week we get a surge of mainland tourists. they shop the most per capita of any.
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the numbers down 45.9%. they didn't come and spend. retail numbers are going to be bad. that will spill over to a lot of the retailers who basically need the holidays. whether it's christmas or the upcoming chinese new year, they need the numbers up. for many of them, it will be the last hope. an economist with ing here in hong kong says there's about a 70% chance there will be a wave, a surge of closures of retail outlets in the first quarter of .ext year shery: thank you, plenty more to come on "bloomberg daybreak: asia." this is bloomberg. ♪
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the ceo says we are not there you. he spoke with our canadian affiliate. >> we don't see anything in the current economic environment that troubles us that there will be something happening tomorrow morning. having said that, we are close to 11 years into this economic cycle. i don't think economic cycles have been repealed. there will be a recession in the developed markets. some countries are heading up today, particularly in europe. because of that, we have very high stock markets and there will be disruption in credit markets and stock markets. you are in anen environment that is more robust than you might otherwise have in an average environment, you should just be careful.
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in funds,re powder more cash on the balance sheet. the balance sheets are more financed long-term, getting we canor the point where capitalize on situations if the markets turn. if they don't, we will be fine. we will keep investing, but we are more cautious today than we were in 2009. in 2009, every dollar we possibly had, other than the ones we were keeping just in case the market went down a little more, every dollar we had, we knew if we would be invested, it would be fine. you knew you were buying at $.50 on the dollar, which in hindsight is a case. but there are some places in the world today that are like 2009 in the u.s. most people think of the prism we have in north america, for example, india. crisisas a financial
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situation going on similar to what happened in the u.s. in 2009. probably not quite as bad, but the banks are not in great shape. non-bank financials are in trouble. consumers don't have access to capital and we have been buying a number of things in india lately. haidi: brookfield asset manager ceo bruce flatt speaking to amanda laying to our canadian affiliate. shery: ashery: quick check of the latest business flash headlines paired the saudi aramco ipo has drawn a total bids of more than $44 billion from institutional and retail investors, about 1.7 times the amount the government is seeking to raise bids. closed. now institutional investors have in.l wednesday to buy there might be a last-minute
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surge, but so far it has not been as well subscribed as other big sales in the kingdom. haidi: singapore's estate owned investment company is in talks to invest up to $100 million in an indian fitness startup app. that's according to the mint newspaper. the platform offers a range of work out platforms at the gym or at home as well as healthy food delivery services. the report says the app is seeking valuation of that $800 million. shery: fiat chrysler has clinched a tentative new deal with united auto workers union after agreeing to double investments in u.s. production, announced earlier this year. the carmaker has already to -- committed to spending $4.5 billion to boost outputs of jeep trucks. ram it will invest the same in the next four years and will add almost 8000 new jobs at the same time. coming up next, nissan's new ceo takes the wheel later with a long list of problems to fix. we look at the road ahead a year
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>> this is daybreak asia. police and protesters clashed again in hong kong at the weekend. unrest flared late saturday as demonstrators blocked roads and set fire to the entrance of a subway station. thousands of people marched into the busy tourist district on sunday, angry the government despitenothing new district council elections and support from the u.s. congress. australia setting up a task force to tackle the threat of foreign interference amid speculation china has been meddling in its political affairs. the government has put aside 60
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million u.s. dollars. it will draw on support from the federal police, crimes agency, and cyber intelligence experts. thousands of people were injured in the southern -- in a southern poor city amid protest on services and lack of jobs. -- thetests, as protests, after the resignation of the prime minister. reports from japan say the government is putting together a fiscal stimulus package that could be worth or than $90 billion. the nikkei news says ministers will discuss the plan this week. is stubbornly weak. the size has risen. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. haidi: what are you watching? sophie: let's take a look at what is happening in australia. stocksals and resources are among the guest drags. nab losing ground. as the new ceo take the reins. nikkei futures rising in chicago. eking out slight gains after the holiday shortened week you let's check in on bond markets. ozzie yields slightly higher. -- aussie yields slightly higher. traders hold out for more convictions. ggp --
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there may be some cautious ahead of tuesday's auction. yen traders are in a wait and see mode. currency near a six-month low. shery: let's talk about one company in japan. the new ceo of nissan beginning his first week. he faces a number of challenges. he will start with a news conference on monday. what can we expect to hear from him? we can expect his main goal will be to set out a plan and leadershipn about at the top of the country, which is under pressure from different directions. they have already set out a plan that includes job cuts. there will probably me some more details about that. the extent of those and perhaps some details about where they will be. we would not expect him to be
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making major announcements in terms of vehicle lineups. he has just been named. the main goal will be for him to show he is completely in charge and that the company's new direction is one where he will be looked at to provide some confidence that has gone away for this company. shery: how important is his role the nissan already over how management leadership a month ago and adopted this collective style leadership? intoght, that does tie naming him. he has a reputation of being a very calm, thoughtful leader. ghosn.eone as flashy as that shows they are taking seriously this idea of collective leadership. . they will be moving forward carefully. ghosn came in and made big changes. there were some risks involved.
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this is a signal they are not looking at taking big risks. they want more of a contemplative readership. someone who is not going to make big waves but is going to restore confidence. that is what this carmaker needs to do. it is a major global force, especially when you take a look at the alliance with mitsubishi. there decision is they are thinking they need someone who can exert this calming influence on the management and show this collective plan is going to work. haidi: in terms of the liens and -- of the alliance, is he likely going to be able to restore some confidence, and is that going to be a top priority? >> yes, i think the alliance is key to the future for nissan. in particular, how the alliance will help them attain the scale
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they need in a letter to vehicles and autonomous vehicles that are -- and indeed to vehicles and autonomous vehicles. serious investors are investing heavily. nissan is more in a retrenchment phase. they have to expand their model lineup or at least renew their model lineup and invest more in electrical vehicles at the same time they are cutting jobs and retrenching in all of their markets. north america is very important to them. that still makes up the largest part of their sales. they have to reestablish aemselves in that market, get top-selling suv at the same time they are refreshing their lineup. it is a real juggling act. one that is even more complicated when you do not have atictator type like ghosn
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the top. you have this decision-making that creates the perception that may be decisions will be slower. he has to be able to show he can strike that balance and move decisively, yet at the same time, not exert the kind of authority that ghosn did that some say went too far. one national australasian bank as welcoming a new leader. him acewan brings with new broom. emily is here with a look. , was one of the nightmare stories that turned into one of the great corporate turnaround. that experience, he is going to need coming into the situation. >> we had the year-long royal commission, which excoriated the
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industry and led to the departure of the ceo and chairman. he is coming and said that atmosphere -- he is coming into that atmosphere. we had the accusations of the money laundering laws. haidi: every time we think we are turning the corner, there is something around the corner -- there is something we run into. >> any times we think we cannot get any words for australian banking, something else happens. that is the atmosphere he is coming into. by all accounts, he is a levelheaded person. he is affable. he is approachable. as well as the task of restoring the reputation of the australian banking industry, some withdrew morale over national australia. he has been battered over the past year. shery: beyond the regulatory overhang, what will you face in terms of the industry, bank
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lending and so forth? >> all of these reputational woes are coming at a time when the operating environment for the banks is getting harder. we are at record low interest rates in australia. it is crimping margins like everywhere else. there is intense political pressure on the banks to give borrowers a good deal, meaning margins are under pressure. with the economy slowing, there is not that much credit growth going on in the wider economy. it looks like the housing market is rebounding. it should be a bit of a tailwind for the break -- for the bank profits. the credit crisis is still lackluster. there are more and more of these slash people trying to off the bank business. it is a ralph -- it is a rough operating environment. it is a tough gig to take on.
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haidi: michelle levine was saying how devastating her research has found the consumer when it comes to what is going on with the banks. does it matter to the banks, given that there greatest responsibility -- given that responsibility is to answer to the shareholders. thingsof the interesting -- despite the level of outrage we have seen and -- the level of switching has been relatively low among consumers. people are switching, but there is not much huge evidence people are switching because of the scandal. that reflects, where do consumers actually go? their people weigh personal feelings about how banks behave with the fact that the bank offers a pretty good
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user situation. they do care because it is the foundation of their business, equally, how much consumers will have to -- will actually shift is a different question. our finance investing reporter. emily with us here in sydney. coming up, we take a look at what the rba easing bias means for the aussie dollar. this is bloomberg. ♪
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six week low. the drag may continue with a private survey of chinese factories expecting to pull back. we will have more australian data point and dissipated throughout the week. third-quarter gdp due on wednesday likely to show tepid growth. more policy stimulus is almost --vitable as deutsche bank the australian economy, just not strong enough. haidi: sophie in hong kong. bloomberg's most accurate forecast for the aussie in the third quarter. sean joins us now. great to have you as always. further to what sophie was mentioning, we saw the brief bump after the positive pmi number. is that enough? does it change the story further aussie, particularly as we have the rba meeting next week. we might have market pricing in
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two cuts and not just one more going forward. blip, i really only a think. similarly, the price action on the aussie in terms of correlations with a record high in equity markets and various places around the world and progress on u.s.-china trade really has not done much to the aussie at all. the price action over the past six or nine months is that it really is about the rba for the aussie. when we had the speech last week, the governor was very -- inin terms of the terms of how he would approach qe. we do not think we are going to need it. we are not planning and at this stage. not really discussing it. the markets took away was that the cash rate can go as low as 0.25%. if they did conduct quantitative
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easing, it would be purchases of government bonds. essentially, the government seems to be betting on the rba getting its growth forecasts wrong. we do have cash rates pushing lower over the past week. that seems to be a steady factor , just chipping away at the aussie dollar. 16% sinceare down 15, early last year. you would think they would become the level of the currency now. >> you would. the way they talked about making clear they have an easing bias against their impression they were worried it would rally steeply where they to indicate rates were on hold. beingeep talking about prepared to do more in terms of monetary easing if necessary. relative for the time being, the aussie is staying very low. those back to the gse. later this week, we will see one of the positives from that when
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australia print another large trade surplus. we have had a great run of trade surpluses even as the u.s.-china trade were has picked up. shery: despite the uncertainty, we have seen the policy when to're volatility falling where we have not seen since 2007. implying thes are quietest year in two decades or so, will this play out given everything that is happening around the world? good pointis a because clearly, this scene has been the quietest since the middle of 2007. even lower to go for for a 12 month, you have to go and 2008 were98 very volatile years.
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for the aussie, it is a bit of a warning that yes, we have had a placid price -- a action. volatility has continued to fall. i'm not going to be calling the aussie one direction sharply or the other for the next few days. a lot of uncertainty for where the aussie rates end up. it is a bit of a dangerous time that volatility would be so low. shery: what about when it comes to the chinese yuan? the aussie and the chinese economies are so closely linked. we are seeing the trading range pretty tight the past week. >> it does seem that will be on a short leash near-term. the markets are just waiting. as the weeks tick by and we wait for clarity on trade, there will be a deal this month.
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inclination is that the risks are for the upside on the dollar yuan, perhaps as far as seven or 710 above. if we get a bit of disappointment, that has tended to be the direction where they have been playing it for the most of this year. things are looking positive, that it is sensitive to a setback. if we do not get a deal by year end, we are starting to get into year and next year weather will be focused on the impeachment trial. benext year where there will a focus on the impeachment trial. the u.s. might be straining to get a deal in the new year. near-term, it is fairly stable. impact do youh see on it comes to the broader em conflicts? we had the mildly positive pmi
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data out of china. last week was the 3rd street week we have seen weakness out of emerging markets. we have a slowdown in india. the worries when it comes to downside pressure for emerging-market currencies breaking through it all? >> a little bit. the risk in near-term, particularly, they were focused on the korean one, which is most sensitive to trade flows. terms ofne to watch in a potential downside. there are some glimmers of hope on the economic side. you mentioned the pmi in china. asiane most part, the central banks and em in general are somewhat on the back force. we have had a bit of a reprieve in recent weeks. there are certainly signs there has been no substantive improvement in terms of economic
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turnaround. there are breakthroughs on trade volumes. that is the near-term risk on the emerging-market currencies. that they do we can around year end. in with someo jump breaking numbers on capital spending out of the pan, that number pretty imprint -- out of japan. that number pretty impressive. expectations. this is for the third quarter. accelerating from the 1.9% in the previous quarter. not quite getting back to -- or rather, getting back to the strength we saw in the first quarter. we are seeing a lower base effect as well. including -- excluding software, meeting expectations of 4.4%. taking up from the contraction of almost 2% the previous quarter. company profits contracting 5.3% . worse than the 2% contraction.
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slightly better than the 12th percent contraction we saw in the second quarter. that set ofg out data. a contraction of 2.6% should that picture worsening as well. you are expecting that slowdown to continue given we are seeing weakening demand in asia. japanese companies overall trimming their spending plan. get back to shawn to give us some views on dollar-yen. 109dollar holding at the handle at the highest level since may. is it the same old story where the dollar remains the best out of a bad bunch given we still have this impasse on trade? the yen doing what it is doing. the bank of japan is really going nowhere. >> i think so. were are looking -- we mentioning before the aussie dollar has not been sensitive to
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risk of elements over the past few months. the dollar-yen has absorbed some fairly turbulent times for equity markets without a massive reaction. it does seem as though yield spreads are key for the dollar-yen. obviously, the markets have taken on board the fed's view that, having cut rates three times before, we will not do so in december. the stability to yield and economic data out of the u.s. has been supportive of that fed view. really inank of japan for that 0% on the 10 year and thinking of other ways it might be able to keep yields low and changing guidance at the most recent meeting to open up the possibility of even lower benchmark rates, the net does leave japanese investors looking at the u.s. with their choices
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of, the euro zone or sterling etc., that is probably the way they are going to go. shery: thank you. do not forget. if you are away from a screen, you can find in-depth analysis and the days big newsmakers on bloomberg radio, now broadcasting live from our brand-new studio in hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪
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month. while inflation did turn positive, the pickup was less than expected. nissan in the limelight as the new cao starts his first week -- the new cao starts his first week. invest ¥33ng it will billion in factory tech to develop self driving vehicles. sony also in view. ofmorgan with a price target ¥10,000. that is a 45,000 increase. we are watching shipping players as antitrust concerns over the shipbuilding -- the chip making deal. seoul sincesit to 2014. this -- shery: thank you purity coming up, we will have more market analysis when we will have -- we
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haidi: good morning. ages major markets have just opened for trade. shery: good evening from bloomberg global headquarters in new york. >> welcome to daybreak asia. haidi: our top stories this monday. manufacturing demand improved. pmi readings showed expansion for the first time since april. opec oil strategy has grown into
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confusion as a leading member goes off script. they: terry guys returns to streets of hong kong as police and protesters clash again after a week of relative calm. the pan and south korea are now online. get straight to the market action. sophie: we are seeing upside active for the nikkei. the yen is trading near a six-month low. from japan this morning, capital spending rose or than forecast in the third quarter. sales and profit did fall. switching to check in on the mood in seoul. a two day decline. the korean won looking further. shipment slumped for a 12th straight month. gdp i pick up in november.
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we do have aussie shares gaining ground. ae aussie dollar trading near six week low, giving back earlier gains sparked by the rebound in china's official pmi. by upside could be limited china -- falling to an august 2016 low ahead of the rba's likely hold on tuesday. traders pricing odds for two rate cuts. haidi: let's get you the first word news with paul allen in sydney. will paints johnson the conservative party as a champion of law and order as london recovers from a terror attack that killed two people. the attack has cast a shadow over the election campaign and thrust security into the spotlight. the prime minister says he is determined to tighten the law. >> what i have said since coming
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to office in the last three or four months is this whole system of automatic early release should be brought in by labor. -- i've only been in up is for 120 days. >> the conservative party has been in power for two years. >> one of the reasons we are having this election is because we had a queen speech blocked by parliament. we need to get it done so we can move forward. i think it is ridiculous. i think it is repulsive. governmentgerman faces crisis after the coalition party elected a new leader seen as a threat to chancellor merkel. they say they have no intention of toppling angela merkel but may issue policy demands the chancellor might find hard to accept. reports from japan say the
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government is putting together a stimulus package that could be worth or than 90 billion dollars. ministers will discuss the plan this week. with the economy stuck in low gear and inflation stubbornly weakening. globale has risen amid growth and a string of natural disasters. november andess in heading for the first annual revenue the client and three years. down with a percent on 2018. that did beat estimates. there are a host of reasons for the declines. kong andnrest in hong the emergence of gaming hubs in southeast asia. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. the chinese state media is hinting at a possible new stumbling block.
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ira chief north asia correspondent has the story. anotherlobal times is state mouthpiece, part of the people's daily. it has put out a tweet saying the existing tariffs by the united states need to be rolled back and they should not be seen to not enactent new tariffs on december 15. aat should not be regarded as replacement for what china really wants. that is a rollback of the existing tariffs. they also put out a second tweet saying, the u.s. interference in china's internal affairs. perhaps that is a reference to hong kong. donald trump signed the highly controversial -- at least to china -- the highly controversial human rights and democracy act, supporting the protest movement here.
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also the tweet from the global times saying what beijing sees as u.s. pressure to buy commodities. increased pressure on china's internal affairs and the pressure to buy more u.s. commodities are both stumbling blocks that could threaten any potential phase i deal between china and the u.s. shery: hong kong purchases back on the straights over the weekend after was a week of relative calm following the elections. we are getting sales later today. you have to imagine that picture will remain pretty ugly. >> the retail sales for the last five or six month has been pretty bid. we have seen the numbers on a ski slope downwards. estimates by economists is for another up 28.1%. we got that number from the mainland tourist arrivals in
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october. it is normally a spike upwards. those fell to the most on record, 45.9%. these retail sales numbers down 28.1% is the estimated forecast. those numbers are due out today. sees a 7.7% chance of a wave of retail closures if these retail outlets do not get further rent reductions by their landlords. there is other pressure coming into larger companies. latest story the coming out of the apple daily, which was founded by jim . basically saying that hsbc has completed reviews for next year. plans submitted the through hsbc. the bank will give smaller pay rises to lower ranking
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employees. senior staff including managers and the chief executives will be given a salary freeze amid slowing growth. due largely to the social unrest and on the back of the trade war appeared in hsbc spokesperson has declined to comment on the speculation. lots of pressure here on the society and political front, but on the economy. thei: stephen engle with latest on hong kong. hong kong remains the biggest risk on the radar. leo is a portfolio manager should great to have you. thought one school of that steve alluded to. the idea that we are seeing all of the downside for hong kong, but it is being isolated to the macroeconomic front. we are starting to see todd of shop closures. empty storefronts. and now, potentially the story about salary freezes for hsbc executives.
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--re is a school of thought how long can the separation be sustained for? how long until you see dysfunction start to hit the capital markets? question isour exactly the right question for the environment. we are already seeing caution with multinational corporate, and in terms of -- the overall allocation in terms of equity market asset prices, you will start seeing the impact if it gets prolonged into the next 12 months or so. the bigger issue is that -- the bigger question is, what is china doing? the does that mean for trade deal that everyone is so looking forward to having resolved? just have bigger issues.
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it poses a lot of uncertainty. haidi: at the same time, you had alibaba, which was a well-timed gift for hong kong markets, the $11 billion offer. when you look at the risk being hong kong, it is one of the top risks for the region, do you view it as a risk to the trade deal being done, or it is a risk to the hong kong market itself? >> on two fronts. more immediately, it is more about the trade deals. whether it means the trade deal will be delayed or there will be not negotiation to and from. that is on that front. the next one is a bigger issue. probably more longer-term. not just for the hong kong market. more so for the chinese market. hong kong is an important capital market for the chinese companies. as you talked to the alibaba and the like, it is incredibly important for a chinese company to raise capital.
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it is almost a gateway for china to be opening up its capital markets. over the next few years. we would really need to see that resolved before any serious decision in terms of allocations can be made. shery: will he see more focus on some structural issues that hong kong has faced for years? of -- weeen canceling have seen stocks losing value in one day plunges. that is highlighting the corporate governance issue that hong kong already has. how detrimental is this problem when you combine it with the unrest that keeps going in the city? of corporate governors, has always been the issue for the emerging markets. it is evolving. hopefully, the path to get there will be better. for the short term in terms of
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unrest and the others, it still creates uncertainty. investors will see a lot of volatility because there is no bias to support the share price when it does fall. fear is the fear of -- the of corporate governance has yet to be mature enough for those markets. it is a path to improve, but in the short term, a lot of uncertainty. shery: talking about the volatility, this chart on the bloomberg showing the one-day percentage move on the hunt saying index. you can see the big swing. given that fundamentals do not becaused in hong kong were partly because of the unrest going on in hong kong, and that divergence between hong kong stocks and the mainland -- that gap be reduced anytime soon? gap will bethe difficult at this point. just given the uncertainties and
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the like. eventually, it will go away. we will need the short-term disruptions to be resolved. haidi: let's get to some of your topics. i was surprised -- we have liked this company for some time. it has been traditionally a highly cyclical business. what is going for qantas in the short term or medium-term is that the improvement in the medium structure -- in australia, the competitor is pulling back in terms of aggressive behavior. -- airlinesional seem to be moving towards more profitability targets. on that basis, the company is very cheap. domestic australian company sort
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of on the way back. we should see some improvements. it has a great balance sheet. we are thinking it will do pretty well in the next 12 months. haidi: one of the cohorts of companies that straddles the demand story. we are getting the shareholder vote this week. is that a story you still buy into despite the chinese slowdown in the question over the consumer? >> we believe the chinese slowdown and all of that is not really a short-term issue in terms of consumers. for us, increased chinese middle-class spend is going to be a multi-decade the medic. -- multi-decade somatic. thematic. wherere moving to offline there is the most opportunity. change.not going to
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any volatility is a short opportunity. haidi: great to see you. still ahead, china is growing on the power of siberia with a new gas pipeline running from russia. we will take a look at how this shapes the global energy landscape. shery: plus, we will look at head to the pmi numbers due in the next hour. this is bloomberg. ♪
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we had seen last week the survey putting torres way ahead. and now seems other polls are showing labor is growing ground. what does it mean for sterling? >> for sterling, it is not positive because what the markets would like -- they would just like a result one way or another. they prefer a boris johnson victory. it just means the chance of a no deal brings it being taken -- a brexit being taken off the table. aything that leads to not conservative majority is going pound negative. at the moment, the pound has a majority -- the conservatives have a majority, the depending -- that depends on which poll you look at. there was a caveat. it was based off maintaining a
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double-digit lead going into the election. they said if the lead is under seven points, they cannot protect and majority at all because there is too much uncertainty. are happy toaders stay on the sideline. they are worried they will be burnt again. shery: i wonder how much has already been priced in despite the fact that we do not have that much certainty in the polls. the pound has rallied 8% already. that was coming on the back of a three year low in august. gainsu that on further when you have rallied this much? is a good it question. going into the election, i do not think anyone has been keen over the uncertainty of the polls to add to the position they have. this 128ikely stay in to 130 range. if the polling get narrower, you
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can expect sterling to weigh off. if boris johnson does retain a majority, how to -- how much does it rally? be limitedit might is because very quickly, markets will focus on economic data. what will the boe do? how do the trade negotiations go forward themselves? the end of next year is the deadline at the moment for the trade agreement to be reached. that is an extremely short amount of time. normally, they take four plus years. fromally that does obtain any boris johnson majority may be very short-lived. haidi: even less certainty when it comes to the euro. the politicalng map. the potential threat to the
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coalition, angela merkel. do you see further downsides? >> it is certainly not a positive. i do not think it will have a huge impact initially. certainly not positive. you look at the euro against the dollar, it is trying to hang above the 110 range. initially, i think we are going to see how this does play out. it certainly is not positive for the coalition. anything that that adds the uncertainty, it is going to be negative for the euro. they're going to be looking at the ecb meeting next month. it is the first one for christine lagarde. will behe eurozone data even more keen near term. haidi: thank you so much. lots more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: the white house finally responding by letter to the house judiciary committee's invitation for president trump to attend public hearings this week. he white house lawyer saying cannot fairly be expected to produce a paid in this december 4 hearing. the u.s. house judiciary committee chairman jerry nadler had given the white house until 6:00 p.m. eastern decide whether his lawyers would attend the hearing on wednesday, december 4. the white house lawyer saying they cannot be fairly expected to participate as the congressional committee is set to discuss the definition of an impeachable offense and whether president trump's actions justify removing him from office. voicing some of these concerns over the process
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of whether president trump will be afforded what they call fair process. certainly not closing the door to further participation in future hearings. manager of asset brookfield asset is preparing for the next downturn. the ceo says we are not there yet. he spoke to amanda lange. we do not see anything in the current economic environment that troubles us that there will be something happening tomorrow morning. having said that, we are close to 11 years into this economic cycle. i do not think economic cycles have been revealed -- have been repealed. there will be a recession in developed markets at some time. some countries are heading there today, particularly in europe. because of that, we have very
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high stock markets. there will be a disruption in credit markets and stock markets. our view is, when you were in an environment that is more robust than you might otherwise have in an average environment, you should be careful. more powder in funds and more cash on our balance sheet care to our balance sheets are more financed long-term. getting ready to the point where we can capitalize on situations if the markets turn. if they do not, we will be fine. we will keep investing. we are more cautious today than we were in 2009. in 2009, every dollar we possibly had, other than the ones we were keeping just in case the market went down a little more, every dollar we had, we knew if we invested, we
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would be fine. you knew you are buying at $.50 on the dollar. there are some places in the world today that are like 2009 in the united states. most people think of the prism -- the present we have in north america. financial crisis situation going on, which is similar to what happened in the united states in 2009. the banks are not in great shape. nonbank financials are in great trouble. entrepreneurs do not have access to capital. they are selling assets. we have been buying a number of things in india lately. shery: brookfield asset management ceo bruce flat speaking to amanda. coming up next, we will get market pmi's of asian countries. we will bring you the key figures next.
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shery: we have breaking news out of south korea and taiwan. for taiwanng pmi coming in at 49.4, which is an improvement from the previous month of october, which was at 48.4. pmi has been in contraction for most of the year. remains in contraction. it is a slight improvement from the previous few months. that would be the number four south korea, 49.4. it is an improvement from the previous month. korea's --ter
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now stating contraction for the past three months. we are seeing export numbers dropping in the double digits. we had the cpi numbers today also disappointing. turning to the taiwan numbers, you will have to confused -- will have to confront -- will have to excuse me. mentioned, pmi in contraction for most of the year. really no improvement. very close to the 50 expansionary line. haidi: you can really see the headwinds coming through from the trade war when it comes to the export and trade sensitive economies. we are getting the vietnam pmi from manufacturing. to 51.st improving it had fallen to 50 on the level between contraction and expansion in october. 51 for november. the october reading was the
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worst since november 2015. we did see the confidence rebounding. that is reflected in the november number of 51. foring out the data flurry the pmi readings, the market indonesian number for the economy, 48.2. better than the 47.7 we had any the month of october. still in contraction territory. deepening when it comes to deterioration and manufacturing. that october reading was the worst in four years. 48 point two in november. still in contraction territory. let's get to paul allen here in sydney for the first word headlines. oil strategy, stepping away from the generally agreed-upon plan. deeper curves on production
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despite ministers indicating the current labels are insufficient to balance the market did opec plus group meets this week and expected to prolong positions in march. staying in iraq, dozens were injured in clashes in the southern city -- in a seven city. -- andrvices in last of a lack of jobs. the protest came among the resignation of the prime minister. 400 people have died since the start of the protest in october. the european union is beginning a new era of leadership. succeeds lagarde mariota drug at the ecb. -- mario draghi at the ecb.
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a cutthroat telecom pros were may be easing in india. servicee largest mobile providers say they will all raise the cost of subscriptions after the government estimated they owed billion's of dollars in license fees. the telecom industry has been caught up in a price war since ages richest man -- global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on tic-toc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm paul allen. this is bloomberg. a string ofve had private readings in the last few minutes. our chief agent economics correspondent joins us. under the measured euphoria picking up over the weekend, we are seeing a mixed bag of improvement for vietnam. marginal improvement for indonesia. we had pretty awful inflation numbers out of south korea. what are you making of this,
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particularly in the context of the trade war dragging on in the region. earlier, withined some stabilization as you look at the tech exporters of asia. there is something of a sign of bottoming in the pmi readings. that probably points to seasonal demands. after something of a turnaround going on in the semi conductor space and the consumer goods and electronics space. reading is the best sense april. gets.s hias good as he the backdrop is one of sake demand around the world. south korean export data is pretty negative. while we were looking at is some gloomy -- what we are looking at is some gloomy stabilization. china's official
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pmi, surprising on the upside. now in expansion territory. when can we see this in these economies that are dependent on china? >> one of the big readings out of china. on the flipside of that story, people argue it reflects some seasonal impacts and the fact that there was some holiday distortion. the big rebound from that. if you have china's pmi heading in that direction, you have to expect it would spillover to the rest of the region. one success story is vietnam. what is going on there is a supply chain's orientation. that is keeping pmi while above the 50 space. ,f china comes back on track and if we head toward something of a broad agreement on the trade side, you would expect to see some kind of spillover. right now, things remain
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something like a gloomy stabilization. when it comes to the -- shery: when it comes to the stabilization, who has the space to do it? we know that japan is running out of ammunition if they have not already a long time ago. fore are seeing a call support from the government side around asia. the government of japan are looking to get more fiscal stimulus in response to the consumption tax they brought in. supportingrtainly the economy in measured way. do not want to go gangbusters like they have in previous cycles. for the rest of asia, there is certainly room for -- room on the monetary and fiscal policy side. we know that with the fed shifting gears this year and easing gave a window of opportunity for asia central
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banks. if they can lower their interest even though they are signaling something of a pause. there are some countries -- he think of south korea. they are keeping an eye on their household debt levels. the government is spending money. they are rolling out a large fiscal stimulus program. spacet comes to policy and either the physical or policy side, they do have the space to support their economies. if we see signs of renewed downturn, these governments will be among those reading response around the world. shery: thank you. our chief asia economic correspondent joining us from hong kong. we are watching china's november pmi numbers. is to head of china macro strategy. always great having you with us. what do we think in terms of the numbers?
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they have been strong as compared to the official number for some months already. >> yes, the timesharing chief pmi alreadyeading for four months. the good news is that most of the time, it will be the official pmi catching up. over the weekend, we started to see a stronger number coming out of the official pmi. as our the reason is, earlier guests have been discussing. on the other hand, it suggest a potential stabilization of gdp after three quarters of sequential slowdown. from here, we do start to see some signs of stabilization. for a stabilized gdp growth in the first half of 2020. shery: when it comes to the measures,olicy
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he is not expecting that much given that the pboc has been pretty measured. inflation has bite because of the pork prices due to african spline fever. is this the trend that will continue to 2020 with the pboc only using those targeted tools? pboc'selieve the monetary policy measure continue to be measured. the king ahead in 2020 because of the likely decrease in physical impacts, which means the additional room for fiscal stimulus, it is a bit narrower compared with 2019. that means monetary policy will need to play a larger role. we are still calling for additional rate cuts in 2020 and looking for at least 20 basis points of cuts in 2020. that is compared with only five basis points this year. get thate we likely to
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from the pboc? we have heard that this is essentially the same targeted pboc playbook they have been sticking to for quite some time. >> we do expect to see more mlf cuts. the pace will likely be slow. the only due to the fact of the pboc does not want aggressive monetary policy, but also due to the fact that the transitional mechanism is not fully in place. the pboc so easy for to fully translate monetary policy into credit easing policy. i will give you one example. china only started to reprice loans using a benchmark called the lpr in august of this year. despite the relatively fast pace, based on our estimation, less than 10% of the outstanding loans in the china banking system is priced against the lpr
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rate. that means if the pboc is cutting the mlf rate to aggressively, it will only affect a small portion of the loans. a better alternative is for the bbs -- for the pboc to be getting the rates later in 2020. at least half of the loan by mid-2020 will be benchmarked against the lpr. for every cut of the mlf, it is going to transfer to a cut of the opr rate and will transfer to a loan rate. haidi: in terms of transmission, what are you seeing it comes to the divergence? we used to see a divergence in it comes to monetary policy and the small privately held ones. s as chart actually show re-coupling when it comes to small companies in the white, medium companies in the blue, and the larger companies in the yellow, showing the quickest
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recovery following the pboc and other stimulus efforts. are you seeing a wholesale recovery across the different components? >> we have seen some recovery of the credit conditions of the economy. one of the indicators is our own index that has been rebounding in recent months. if we just look at the credit bond market data in the domestic market, the recovery is not very obvious. for the second year in a row, china's private enterprises is remaining negative so far this year. after already a year of negative in 2018. looking ahead to 2020, we believe this number is going to improve. how much is going to improve from here remains questionable. one of the reasons is that the difficult financing condition has led to a different. while the private owned enterprise default rate is
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beyond 3% in 2019. it's. in the soa sector remained very low at around 0.05% only. haidi: always appreciate your time and your views with us. the head of china macro strategy. when we get those pmi numbers over the next hour, bloomberg markets china open will be breaking down that data with the china economist running us. take a look at the state of plate when it comes to these monday morning markets. sophie: we're looking at a tepid start to december trading. 1% on the nikkei 225. the yen trading near a six month low. investors consider rebound we saw in china's manufacturing pmi. the pboc governor signaled a cautious outlook for the economy
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given trade uncertainty. percent, ande a the korean won snapping a four day decline. some silver linings potentially to be had export volumes picking up. let's check in on bonds this morning. u.s. 10 year, u.s. yield climbing back above 1.8%. treasury yield at 1.3 basis points. aussie bond yields coming out as a bunch of eco-data is out from down under. a bigger drop in october voting approvals. australian company profits for the third quarter fell more than expected. this as the policy decision for wednesday's gdp. plenty more ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪
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i'm shery ahn in new york. haidi: i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. this desire, the natural gas line dubbed the power of siberia. it will connect beijing to the world's largest exporter of natural gas. everywhere you look at this, the scale is enormous. let's talk about the russia side. how much of a game changer is this for russia? >> like he said, russia is the biggest exporter of natural gas. most of its sales go through europe through pipelines. that has been did politically probe -- that has been politically problematic. this allows them to bypass that mess and find a new market in asia and monetize new fields that are too far east to connect to the european system. this opens up a whole new market
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for them. they are not stopping here. they are already talking to china about expanding this deal. they have talked to places like south korea about possibly doing a pipeline through north korea if the two countries could ever agree to that. this is opening a whole new branch to the world of russian -- branch to the world to russian natural gas. shery: tell us about china's gas consumption and why they need this. world's largest energy consumer. it is a very polluted country. lots of coal dust. he gets more than 60% of its energy from coal. they have been pushing to try to convert a lot of coal furnaces in homes and factories to natural gas, which means there natural gas consumption has been skyrocketing. they are importing in every which way they can.
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they havef a sudden, this huge pipeline from the world's biggest gas exporter, a massive amount of gas will be able to come right into beijing. godsend forhis is a them. a lot of supply coming in right when they need it. shery: our energy reporter joining us from singapore. msci says they will only consider adding more you one denominated shares after china addresses its concerns. how this could effectively start closing the open door to china. is that what we are going to see? ist are the conditions msci setting echo >> msc -- is setting? >> msc i has always brought up these conditions. among them are, there has to be more hedging instruments.
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in hedging products. -- and hedging products. there has to be -- the creating mechanism has to change. inchina, they settled trades the same day. you have a time zone difference between america and china. msci isasures are what saying -- until we get these things done, we are not going to talk about increased inclusion into the emerging markets index. third --day, dated a they did a third leg of inclusion of chinese a-shares. chinese a-shares account for 4.1 of the index. by these measures, they are saying, no more until you meet these conditions. haidi: i am wondering how much of this also has political context in terms of the pressure
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that is coming from the u.s. i am also, it -- i am also wondering when we will see the pressure as a result of the hong kong protest. potentially having an impact on the hong kong position as the capital markets hub of asia. >> i think it is huge. msci, we have to remember, is headquartered in new york. everything that has been happening in recent months in protests andh the the trade war, it is no that these went from nice to have conditions to must have conditions. there is a shift in the way msc i is talking about entry to funds. they are hugely tracked by passive funds. there also like the badge of honor for active funds. if you know ms ci has said it is
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ok to go in, a lot of active funds will go in. it is no coincidence politics is playing a part in this. appreciate your time. bloomberg opinion columnist. do not forget. you can always find the in-depth analysis and the newsmakers on bloomberg radio. we are no blood -- we are now broadcasting live from our new studio in hong kong. you can live -- you can listen through the radio app or on bloomberg.com. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: you are watching daybreak asia. let's get you a check of the latest is in his headlines. hsbc plans to freeze executive salaries in the city for the next 12 months and has emitted the idea to parent hsbc holdings for approval. the report does not say where it's all the information and reports that pay rises to lower ranking staff will be the lowest in two years. shery: singapore company tum mastech is in talks to invest up to $100 million in an indian fitness start up app. the platform offers a range of gym andprograms for the at home as well as a healthy food delivery service. it is seeking a valuation of
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$800 million. haidi: and tendo seems poised for it's best holiday season yet. the switch console. estimates say it will probably sell nine and a half million devices. the console sales forecast is only a slight improvement on last year. deliver most of their profit. shery: markets across asia gaining at the moment. we await a private survey of chinese pmi after the official reading livered a rebound, -- bound. pretty range mark cranfield does not expect any changes. keeping an eye on cathay pacific as it plans to cut capacity in 2020. a change from september when --
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delivery of new aircraft dear and hopes environment will improve. recall that cathay pacific did issue a second profit warning in november 13. we are keeping an eye on hi bev, which jumped as five -- as much as hi bev. bernstein says the move could be a negotiating tactic rather than a real prospect. that is it for daybreak asia. markets coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of the trading this week in hong kong, shanghai, and shenzhen. berg marketsy for china open. this is bloomberg. ♪ whether you're out here on lte.
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tom: welcome to "bloomberg markets: china open." i'm tom mackenzie. david: i'm david ingles. we are counting down to the open of your trading week and hong kong and on the chinese mainland. let's get to your top stories. stocks across the region on the up as china outlook brightens. the manufacturing pmi numbers shows expansion for the first time since april. tom: hong kong remains a threat. tear gas and rubber bullets as police and protesters clash again after a week of relative calm. david: and the power of siberia. china turns to russia to satisfy
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