equities, while cracks show in smaller companies and exports. german chancellor angela merkel faces new leadership in her coalition partner, throwing doubt as to how long her tenure can last. trump derails the green shoot narrative. the president raises steel tariffs to pressure the fed to cut rates, throwing cold water on the global equity rally. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this monday, december 2. . if you are just getting back from the long holiday weekend, welcome. in the markets, the story about an hour ago was a new narrative. . we may have green shoots. the worst may be over. we saw that in the bond market and equity market. president trump throwing cold water on that. s&p futures now treading water. still somewhat risk on. still seeing a huge co-op in the bond market, particularly in germany.

time now for global exchange, where we bring you today's market moving news from all around the world, from hong kong to berlin, to london, sao paulo, and new york. our bloomberg voices are on the ground with this morning's top stories. , china said it would sanction and american organizations close hong kong's port. joining me from hong kong, and the current -- hong kong, enda curran. give us the latest. enda: what they are doing is targeting a couple of groups, including human rights watch and freedom house, for sanctions, and putting a stop on u.s. navy ships coming to hong kong. but we don't really have many more details beyond that. we know that there are already some restrictions on ngos operating within china anyway, but the big take away is they steered clear of any economic issues, anything that would

upset the trade talks, which are , by all accounts, still on track. . there was better news on china's economy today. but the official and private sector pmi's pointing in the right direction, hinting at perhaps some stabilization for the manufacturing sector and a bottoming for the export sector. that would be good news, and would strengthen china's hand as the trade negotiations continue. much.thank you so germanynt to go now to and berlin, where german chancellor angela merkel's after her coalition partner -- angela leadership is in doubt after her coalition partner elect a new leader. thister: i think that shift to the left is an

existential risk for this government. the two leaders have been constantly toying with the notion that they could leave this coalition, and they are not so attached to this coalition is maybe the lawmakers here in berlin. they think that this coalition government, that merkel has brought the stp to a level of 15%, so they are a much more prone to a sickly push very hard in possible future negotiations with the cdu and push it as far as maybe even leaving the coalition. but in the end, it will be down to negotiation. alix: thank you so much. staying in europe, oil rebounding from its biggest weekly loss since october is a rock signaled -- as a rock -- as wouldignaled opec+ consider more cuts.

with more is annmarie hordern. annmarie: we have to take this with a grain of salt. first we were talking about the compliance issue. iraq has not complied. they are pumping well above their target. now they are talking about deeper cuts. likely we will hear a harder tone from the ones that have been complying, like saudi arabia, to get cheaters in line. secondly, when i say they are breaking ranks, it's because we've heard from opec delegates, and heard signals from saudi arabia and russia signaling they want to maintain the status quo and not cut her. when you are going into the meeting and seeing a headline that this from the oil minister in iraq, many are taking this with a lot of skepticism. alix: thanks so much. i want to stay in london now, where president trump will be arriving later this afternoon i had of a two day nato summit. joining me is bloomberg's white house reporter. it used to be all about trump

and nato, but there's so much other drama to discuss when it comes to nato. reporter: obviously, i think we are going to be really interested in how president trump response to recent terror attack in london, and if he wades into the british elections. there's also a ton else going on. the french are pushing nato to redefine its mission for the modern era. there's a lot of questions over turkey and the russian antimissile system. there's also controversies over 5g in china. all of this is on the agenda to later convene here in london this week. alix: thank you so much. we want to turn now to brazil. president trump tweeted this morning he is reason stating tariffs on steel and aluminum from argentina and brazil, and again called on the fed to loosen monetary policy. with us from sao paulo is bloomberg's julie leche. reporter: brazil is one of the

of steel, anders had reached an agreement with president trump back in august 2018 to cut tariffs. unclear what is going to happen with that arrangement. all we have is what trump said in the tweet. president bolsonaro made a quick comment to journalists that he will talk to finance ministers about this, and may reach out to trump. -- to trump with hope he has an open kennel of -- an open channel of communication. alix: black friday saw over $7.4 billion in online sales. many shoppers spent the day clicking instead of lining up. give us the update of where we are so far from friday, and also on cyber monday so far. it looks like it

turned out to be a great weekend for retailers, setting up the holiday season for a great start. november sales had started strong, and online sales are now estimated to have been in the high teens, about 18% for the black friday weekend. stores did well, too. store sales were up 4.2% on black friday, really setting the stage strong for the holiday period and for q results. , and sales are expected in the high teens again. it is a very critical day for bricks that have online presence. alix: thank you very much. ,omething else i am watching france. apparently there was a backlash le blackhat is called friday. they blame amazon for importing

consumerism that contributes to hurting the planet. can you imagine walking away from deals? coming up, much more on your trade and analysis in the market. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time never bloomberg first take. going to me from our in-house team of wall street veterans and experts, damian bostick,and romaine and with us around the table, nixon, northern trust wealth management cio. how aggressive do you need to

get with risk on a day like today? if you look at currency performance overnight, all those low yielding emerging-market currencies like israel, they are all rallying. people are taking risk off. that's been a very good performer and a very big output driver for emerging markets over the better part of the last month. romaine: but it is about the stabilization factor, too. you saw so many traders position the opposite direction leading up to this data, and isaac a lot of them are finally getting some signs that what are seeing out of china, what we are seeing out of europe, that there is more stabilization there. may be creates a little more risk on. alix:alix: is it also part of the trade thing? we did have a nice risk on mood, and then you have more steel tariffs on brazil and argentina. isn't that it? katie: just to pick up on a prior theme comeau stabilization

-- prior theme, stabilization is the new up. people are repositioning having been bearish on trade and growth . so having stabilization on both fronts, may a few green shoots even on the growth front, there's a little repositioning going on. also, you've got these central banks that are really going to be on hold, even if grocery accelerates. that sort of presents the best of all worlds to investors. damian: defect of the matter is we've we seem great duration gains. how can you really get long rates in local currency terms? it's going to be very difficult to do. i think some of the other data we saw overnight like south korea and hong kong retail sales -- alix: really bad. damian: -- really, really bad, are waiting on it as well. alix: you also have the pboc governors saying they are going to be in the market, etc.

that did not feel like a positive before we get the pmi's. damian: they are tapering back rate cut expectations. we will take a more moderate pace in terms of how we stimulate the chinese economy, but if you look at all the other data of an outcome of we had pmi out of europe better-than-expected, pretty much across the board with the exception of sweden. we are not anywhere near the end game yet. . when it comes to stabilization, i think that is a 2020 theme. endink as we get into year with some of the concerns in the plumbing here in the u.s. and some of the other concerns bubbling up at the surface -- i mean, you know better than i the etf's saw its first week of outflows ever. that has been a huge game-winner. euro-u.s. that, dollar at record lows, these are

all things jumping out here at this moment. katie: it is not surprising to see this low vol on the currency side. all of these numbers are converging at the lower levels. you've got lower volatility data coupled with lower volatility fx , coupled with lower volatility equity markets. i think it presents a nice environment for investors because they think about beyond december, where i couldn't agree more that there are certainly some things that could happen, and if it happens, it is probably going to be a repo issue, and the fed a little bit behind the curve there. . that will upset markets, but as we look into 2020, we know the thing that matters is at the margin, and less bad is good. romaine: is there this idea of a little more synchronization? someof the fear we had back in the spring of the summer was because there was such a disconnect from country to country and region to region.

we've seen a little more alignment, and i think that gives some people a little more confidence in going further out on the risk spectrum. katie: i think that is a theme, but it will be synchronization at still a pretty low level. . it is so funny everyone is talking about re-acceleration of growth in 2020. i thing it is an interesting debate. they are pointing to the reese deepening of the yield curve as sort of exhibit a. we have a 10 year -- the re-steepening of the yield curve as sort of exhibit a. romaine: we can all sit here --damian: we can all sit here and debate the fact that spreads are too tight in any metric. nonetheless, with that tenure at 1.18%, it's come a long way. i can see some credit curve flattening being built into the market. for me, one of the calls we are making is that we cem dollar credit sovereign curves flattening. that is against the grain of what most people would tell you,

if yields are going to back up on growth, that shouldn't happen, but that data for the ration, where there is -- for duration come over there is such a dearth. alix: so your call is a reach for you will call. isian: what it comes down to this relentless bid for u.s. dollar duration. it is structural, really. it is the fact that you just can't build duration into portfolios anymore. long-duration investors need it, and they can't find it. one area we might find it is em sovereign credit. . i wouldn't go into places like argentina or turkey, but areainly bb, bbb, there places like brazil that offer value. romaine: when you look at that steepening on the curve, it is not a whole lot. it is steeper than what it was, but that is a pretty weak steepening.

. you saw it taper off a little bit after that initial upswing. the buyers are still there. katie: i would only add if the 10 year goes back to 2%, i think that is going to suck the demand out of some of the em calls you are making because high-quality 2%, that is going to be a hot ticket. this kind of environment, there isn't any high-quality yield. does that trigger rotation out of equities into the long ended spectrum, or can we have 80% 10 year, stabilization in yields, and also a rally in equities? romaine:romaine: you are already seeing narrowing and that differential. that was even with the yield curve back where it was. so the fact that you are still getting compression there, at the same time we are getting that rise yield, i guess you could see a little bit of rotation, but again, equities are still king. u.s. equities are still king, no matter how you cut it. alix:alix: but i don't understand is how we have not yet talked about trade. we have this over the weekend

that beijing is hell-bent at getting a rollback on tariffs to get a trade deal. then you have hong kong in the background, which has been a muted response, but nonetheless, we are 13 days away from the ground. damian: you mentioned brazil and argentina, and aluminum and steel tariffs. alix: aluminum. are you allowed to say that? [laughter] damian: i think there's no question that is not so much targeted at brazil and argentina. alix: they would love a better currency, please. romaine: it's a message to china, and a reminder of where we are right now in the trade relationship. don't forget another big deadline is that december 10 headline come over you're going to lose two judges on the wto, which is effectively going to neuter that body. defund him into backdrop of the trade picture is no clear that what it was. katie: i guess why people aren't really talking about it, there's

sort of this trade fatigue. we've been talking about it for so long. we've been really waiting for the deal. alix: is a trade deal on the upside and downside? that we are getting less juice in the equity market when you have better news? katie: that's a good point, but i don't think there's too much good news built-in the market. i am starting to see it in 2020 expectations for growth, but i don't think it is being priced into the market right now. damian: in equities, i think the way to take advantage of ec stabilization is to turn to companies that have high margins, high operating leverage. it will be more towards those types of companies. in em, that's brazil, mexico, china, russia. i think those are the companies you want to -- those of the countries you want to keep an eye on, the ones that might outperform if we see growth come back. katie: also, if we do see

positive movement on trade, then i think you see a rotation out of the u.s. and into the more highly levered, higher geared markets to trade, like em and europe. romaine:romaine: but the big wildcard everyone is looking forward to is the big 2020 election cycle. you wonder how politics are going to shake policy, and whether that removes trade is any meaningful conversation. alix: i wonder, if you see rotation like the last couple of weeks, is it more to safety like overnight? the lower yielding currencies. [laughter] katie: totally fair point -- alix: totally fair point. but we don't see russia, argentina, or turkey, but more like taiwan or thailand or something. damian: i would agree. taiwan is an interesting one because they've been funded incorrectly come up with a you're a very interesting

funding currency because they rally on better expectations of growth, so it is a good way to play for that. --to play for that carry ta that carry trade. funding in hong kong dollar, that is what goldman is calling for, whatever that means. katie: i would say the consensus is go usa. investors are very overweighted u.s. assets. if we do see a pickup in global growth, a positive resolution of the trade deal, i think you will see a rip in some of the non-us markets. alix: which brings us back to the beginning. romaine: i think europe is going to be the bigger beneficiary than anyone else. you are already seeing the flows out of u.s. into these european funds. that will probably accelerate should the numbers that we got overnight actually persist over

the next couple of months. alix: great discussion on this monday morning. thanks so much. katie nixon, northern trust, will be sticking with me. the charts we are using throughout the program, go to gtv under terminal, browse the peache features. this is bloomberg -- browse the features. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak." president trump re-imposing tariffs on steel and aluminum from brazil and argentina. the president tweeting, but both both -- tweeting both countries have been presiding over massive devaluation of their currencies. . that, he says, is not good for american farmers. goldman sachs reportedly will avoid setting profit targets. according to "the financial times," goldman plans to focus

on its core financial businesses and announce the launch of a new merchant banking division. the new ceo of nissan taking over with a long list of problems to fix. he will have to deal with decade low profits and a decline in relations with partner renault, damaged by former chairman carlos ghosn's arrest a year ago. alix: across europe, protesters demanding action on climate change. the demonstrations come on the eve of the start of u.n. climate talks in madrid. the meeting is a follow-up to the landmark paris conference four years ago. the focus obviously on the u.s., who left the paris climate accord, but also on china. this shows global greenhouse gas output for all of the countries, and china emits more than any other country, about 27%. at the same time, china is also the biggest investor in renewable fuel that try to deal

why latestemissions, taking their economy because they have so much coal output. coming up on this program, much more on climate and how to invest in clean energy with ead ofle partners' h renewables in clean energy on where she sees the best opportunity. in the markets, we had a nice risk on feel, and then he steel,ion of tariffs for moving equities off their highs. we still saw the best month for global equities this year. this is bloomberg. happy monday. ♪ everyone uses their phone differently.

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switch and save up to $400 a year. and now get $250 off google pixel 4 during xfinity mobile beyond black friday. that's simple. easy. awesome. click, call or visit a store today. alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." in the markets, we are treading neutral. s&p up by about 0.1%. you had u.s. stocks rounding out

the best monthly performance since june, and building on that just a touch. euro-dollar pretty much flat as more of the risk on currencies are moving higher. cable flat as well. the twos-tens spread a little steeper. you are seeing a move out of treasuries and european bonds. btp's were up at one point by about 11 basis points. . overall stabilization in pmi, but not quite enough when you have a trade issue to offset any weakness. we are officially in the final months of 2019, so strategists are looking to 2020. i seen a lot of consensus. a lot of with the action when it comes to -- a lot of whippy action when it comes to where things will sit. katie nixon of northern trust joins us. how do you deal with that? katie: we look at what the market is pricing and right now, and what we see is not a huge amount of optimism.

more realistic expectations for what is going to happen in 2020. our base case is constructive. we still like risk assets into the new year, although expectations are far more tampered then the returns of be9, and they will probably driven by the fundamentals. growtho you see 1.5% 2% in the u.s.. what kind of returns, and when do you get that extra pickup? 2% growth isaac is good enough to propel earnings into the mid single digits. growth off earnings of a very low base, which is what we had this year. you're setting yourself up for mid to signal -- for mid single digits type return, which is ok.

are there risk around that? yes. what happens with trade, which can be both a fundamental driver, as well as a sentiment driver? our return forecast is based on multiples not expanding, but also not contracting significantly. i think as sentiment waffles if we see some multiple contraction, investors worry about a recession scenario. alix: in terms of where, if you come inside the bloomberg, this takes a look at all the factors. this just for one day come of it if we take a look at your to date, it is out of momentum, out of value, into leverage, into growth, into buybacks. that's shifted a touch in the last couple of months. what is that story next year? katie: it is hard to time these factors, to be honest. we had a bit of a green shoot in the third quarter that seems to have dissipated. i wouldn't really try to time the factors, but what i would

say is if you have a base case of very low but positive growth, which reinforces a very patient central bank, and even in our forecast, may be a couple of rate cuts in 2020, which would really support risk assets, but would also support the search for yield. so within the risk asset bus it -- asset bucket, may be taking a defensive posture in the face of so much uncertainty and buying things like global infrastructure, global real estate to give you that yield, as we see investors stuck between wanting safety and not want to glower negative rates on fixed income. alix: it's a great point. katie nexen, northern trust -- trust,ixon, northern thanks for joining me. viviana: the white house won't take place in this week's impeachment hearing. keeping open trump

the possibility that he would be represented in future sessions. white house counsel says the entire process has been unfair to the president. china striking back at the u.s.-beijing -- at the u.s., beijing freezing port visits to hong kong by u.s. ships. nations say the bank of englund governor has excepted the role of special envoy for find that action and finances. the u.s. secretary -- the u.n. secretary-general says he pushed the climate issue in the financial sector. he's due to leave the be out -- be asked tomay extend his term. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg.

alix: thanks so much. let's continue that conversation on climate. talks today in madrid, with climate envoys for almost 200 get trees -- 200 countries gathering to talk climate change. today we begin by looking at clean energy investment. joining me is pooja goyal, carlyle group partner and head of renewable and sustainable energy. thank you for joining us. you've been in this industry for a really long time. where you see the best return profile, and where do you see the best investment opportunity? pooja: when people talk about climate change, it can include a bunch of different themes and drivers. we spent a lot of time analyzing those different themes, and what we find particularly interesting right now is the energy transition. when we talk about the energy transition, we are talking about transitioning away from traditional fossil fuels into renewable sources of energy. notice how i said renewable

sources of energy and not just power. obviously we include wind, solar, geothermal, and hydro, but we find particularly interesting batteries and storage, and how the energy transition is impacting the transportation sector. the transition away from conventional internal combustion engines into electric vehicles. so what we believe is the energy transition is actually an attractive commercial opportunity, and contributes to mitigating the impact of climate change. alix: where in particular? so many new technologies keep cropping up. how do you find the best opportunities? pooja: we typically tend to avoid science experiments. we recognize at the end of the day, you are in a commodity sector, so you've got to produce that electron as cheaply as possible and with as much scale

as possible. what we've noticed is over the last 15 years, the cost to produce electricity using wind and solar have declined meaningfully. the cost to produce electricity has declined by over 55% over the last 10 years, and the cost to produce electricity using solar has declined more than 85% over the last 10 years, making solar and wind competitive with conventional sources of power. we think those are scalable opportunities. we tend to avoid sectors when there are lots of strategic's involved. you mentioned the oil and gas majors may have a lower cost of capital than what the private sector would look to target. we tend to avoid sectors that you've gotwded, so to be strategic about how you take your opportunities. alix: i like that you said scalable because you also mentioned geothermal and biomass. when we've been talking about this, that's not necessarily scalable. it might be good for one part of

the world, but you can't do it all over the place. pooja: geothermal, you need to drill wells and get hot water and steam. for biomass, you need to be close to your fuel supply, which is wood or pellets or waste matter. scale is important. renewables are supposed to go from 7% of the power generation need to haveo you a renewable source that is abundant and prolific. this is concentrated in certain parts of the world. but i will tell you biomass and geothermal baseload sources of electricity. you can dispatch them on an as needed basis. so could there be an opportunistic area where they would make sense? yes, but scale is somewhat limited their. alix: you've seen a lot of s, privateom vc' equity, or in general coming into the space, and europe seems to be so much more ahead of the rest of the world. how do you look at that money, at the competition, and where

you need to deploy this? pooja: at this point in time, any market in the oecd world is competitive. i don't think renewables is unique in the sense that you have company should from financial investors, as well as strategic. we've always believed directly to find opportunities is to cover the sector on the daily basis. our strategy is to not cover renewables as part of a broader energy and power mandate. would like to focus on renewables on a dedicated basis. that really differentiates the kind of deal flow you get. one of the things i always like to ask my team is, look, what exactly are we bringing to the table? you can't just compete on price. are bringingat we to the table that can drive value for us as we are looking to put his baiting different opportunities?

you have to be strategic about geographies you look at, and even within geographies, you have to be strategic about which asset classes you go after. alix: we highlight women on wall street who are shaping finance, and you are one of those women. . you've been in this industry for a very long time. how do you find a team?how do you find experienced people to add that value, and how did you even get here on your own? pooja: i believe in content, so first and foremost, the criteria would be subject matter expertise. like i said, we are competing in a fairly commoditized market right now, so having subject matter expertise is first and foremost from my perspective. when iond thing is that think about putting a team together, a diversity of perspectives is important, and diversity is a very broad term. notan be someone who comes just from financial services, but industry, or some other form of diversity.

to avoid echo chambers. the third thing i would say is a culture of collaboration and teamwork is extremely important. sharing information, there is so much information and data available. that happens through collaboration and teamwork. i would say that is how we think about putting teams together. alix: pooja, thank you so much. i love talking to you so much. pooja goyal of carlyle group, think you. we may be why avoiding talking about profit targets this year. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: we turn now to wall street beat. we cover three things wall

street is buzzing about this morning. first up, goldman avoids hard profitably targets. day mayr's investor not have targets. and hedge funds gives the cold shoulder in china. . some of the world's biggest names in hedge funds are finding it hard to break into the chinese market. joining me is bloomberg sonali basak. is this a surprise? bit.i: a little reuters reported this, that they are considering abandoning their plan of generating $5 billion in extra revenue. there are a lot of reports saying they will focus on profitability and said. i think what is not surprising is that we might not hear any big proclamations in this upcoming investor day at the end of january, but what we will hear from goldman is what they want to be when they grow up. [laughter] alix: while said.

-- well said. and that's a merchant bank. sonali: exactly. they will focus on merchant banking, agreeing to this report. their asset manager is very interesting because it is one of the handful over $1 trillion, well over $1 trillion. how they are going to drive margins in that business will be really interesting. alix: let's get to silverlake, trying to repull their top leadership. sonali: we learned there is some consistency here. . silverlake has never really had ceos. they've had managing partners. these guys have run the firm since 2011. the two of them are being elevated as co-ceos. another is being elevated to chairman, and another will be vice chairman. stepping back for personal reasons according to personal reasons here.

alix: let's move on to this oneat article bloomberg talking about hedge funds china not being able to make it happen. sonali: for folks like blackrock ubs, china is this big opportunity. but china has hedge funds already, and a lot of the ones that tend to succeed have blowout returns. we are hugging about 100% to 500%. but those can sometimes lead to big mishaps in subsequent years. if you take blackrock, for example, one of the funds in the region had returned about 10%. we have a story from an investor who said they give us 12%, we will be fine. really, they are a diversifier. so it is not a surprise that it is hard to grow in the region, but it is a big opportunity, so let's see how long it takes to get them where they want. alix: bloomberg's sonali basak,

thank you very much. will bep, tom demark joining us for his analysis of the market. if you are jumping into your car, tune into bloomberg radio on sirius xm channel 119 and on your bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: has the stock market rally run its course? we've got technical analysis with you -- analysis for you with tom demark. what are the indicators you are looking for? for some time, we've been looking for a market top. callne we recorded what we a perfected nine set up that identified below for us. thehe market -- identified low for us. as the market receded, we recorded likely peaks that appear as thirteens.

unfortunately, we use the combination of timing and price projection, and our price projection was four points higher than the second 13 peak, and as a result, we stayed long throughout the entire period. we experienced a decline in august and late september, and states throughout that entire period. right now we are in the process that could occur today, tomorrow -- thatsday, that the px could experience the peak. we are probably at some sort of top for the s&p. the dow jones and the nasdaq- associated indices are lagging a little. that would make it probably wednesday. once we are there come a worst case, we move sideways. best case, i should say. we move sideways for 12, 15 days.

more likely, if the market behaves like in the past, you will get at least a 5% pullback. it all depends on whether we get what we call a price flip. you record a close less than the prior four closes. the next day, you followthrough downside. we try to be proactive and identify this investments -- this in advance, but that is what we are seeing. we covered the approving -- the equivalent amount of price movement close to 3170. alix: part of that also is looking at the vix. what does volatility tell you? should we be expecting a market decline? ,om: we recorded the vix bottom if you look at the chart there, 24.cident with july

. we experienced the same thing last wednesday. that is telling us the trend in the vix is up. they all seem to lead the market. that is giving us some confidence that our market call, worst case, market moves sideways, but hopefully turned down for a time so that vix is telling us the same thing. alix:alix: i want to end on bitcoin. you look into the technical indicators of bitcoin, which is kind of revolutionary for the market. walk us through it. tom: back in 2017, we were monitor theo bitcoin market, but there wasn't much data. it was really uncharted. there wasn't much of a reservoir of data. . but once we started following it, we followed it closely. we applied the same approach with the nines in thirteens. lo and behold, the exact day of the high was a 13, so we thought

that was just a chance event. . it won't happen again. then on the exact day of the low, we recorded a 13. ort goes from a chance coincidence into something with a higher probability. then in june of this year, on june 17, we got what we call a misfire, and early 13. but it weaken the have later on the june 26 hi, we saw another 13. so three out of the four cases, they've been the precise top top-end bottom -- the high-end bottom. them andrkets misused call the bottom, which was wrong. since then, the market traded lower, which we were expecting, and currently we are on a column down. the risk downside is quite a bit

from here. we've got a downside projection and in a crash we go to 5294. wheeze been speaking to the authority on cryptocurrencies, bitcoin, and he's got the fundamentals. he said there's really nothing available as far as timing markets, and that is what we are trying to do, to combine the fundamental and the market timing. hopefully we will unlock this market. it's responded very well, just like back in the 1970's. we will keep you updated, and hopefully you can have us on air when we recorded 13. alix:alix: really great to get your perspective. tom demark, demark analytics founder and ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this monday,

december 2. i'm alix steel. let's take it from the top. center, the strong christian democrats, i want to continue to work for that. alix: chancellor angela merkel's government thrown into crisis. > we want to reach our hands out to all. a substantial is risk for this government because the two leaders have been constantly toying with the notion that they could leave this coalition. alix: amid a leadership change the spd -- att faces challenges on her leadership. china pmi's to the rescue? pmi's bounce,

while cracks show weakness in smaller companies and exports. and almost 200 countries dissent on madrid for climate talks, building on the four-year-old paris summit. fridayonday versus black winners online. it looks like it turned out to be a great week and for retailers, setting up the holiday season for a great start. november sales started strong, and online sales are estimated to have been in the high teens. alix: black friday hit a record in u.s. online sales, the second-biggest after last ye friday -- last year's cyber monday. they narrative about two hours ago was some stabilization in growth. then you had president trump

coming out with export tariffs on steel from brazil and argentina. we are up about 0.1% in the s&p. crude getting a big lift after that nasty selloff on friday. joining me for the hour, ed hammond, bloomberg deals reporter. happy thanksgiving? do i say that? do you do that? ed: i do. i have an american partner and child, so we do celebrate that. it is nice to have a day off. alix: we are officially in the final months of 2019. strategists looking forward to next year. there's a bit of confusion. joining ed and i for the hour, alicia levine, bny mellon investment management chief strategist, and jennifer nason, j.p. morgan global chairman of investment banking. thank you for joining us. i have a chart inside the bloomberg, which is the s&p

high-end versus low end. it feels very binary. to you first.go how do you look at that for 2020 alicia: -- for 2020? alicia: we are coming in with strength. let's not forget that the s&p really did not break out from its 18 month trading range until october. that's because we had flat earnings growth for the year. so we are first breaking out from that tariff induced slow down, earnings slow down now. this can continue going into 2020. the question is, in the question is, any markets, borrowing from 2020 performance here in the fourth quarter. that is the question for investors. how much do you get now that you have to worry about next year? ed: how far into 2020? the big issue in 2020 is going to be the elections.

how far do we see this continue? alicia: the election is a great source of volatility on both the republican and democratic side. this morning we had futures up huge, and then tariffs put on some south american countries come on brazil and argentina. i think the question of what happens in a potential trump second term is now placed into the market as perhaps a bigger risk than the market is pricing in. then on the democratic side, there will be a trade there which will not be positive, depend on how some of those primaries go. m&ajennifer, obviously demands confidence for these transactions. 2020,u seeing it into that it will be another good year for deals? jennifer: yes, in the technology sector in particular. it's been a very strong year,

and i continue to believe, and you've heard this from me before, that it is going to be a very big year for m&a next year. ed: what drives that? fintech has been the big story so far in 2019. what is the fundamental that pushes tech again in 2020? we've seen so many sectors consolidate meaningfully over the past few years. jennifer: we already have very meaningful change happening intact. 5g, the cloud has been deployed. i think we are going to see bigger deals happen, largely related to those two things. and size really does matter. in the u.s. this year alone, we've seen 30 plus deals over $10 billion, many of those in the technology sector, and i don't see that trend abating. we will dig a little deeper into the sector in a

second, but just to continue to have broad strokes, part of that tweet we saw from president trump about curbing imports -- or raising tariffs on brazil and argentina on aluminum and steel is because of the fed. he wants low rates. they are dealing with a lower currency. want a lower currency. we want a lower rate. how dependent is the s&p going to be on lower rates from the fed? alicia: the market is already pricing and one more cut for next year, which is now fewer cuts than had been priced in because growth is coming in better. i think the fed has done a pretty good job at projecting where it is going, meeting market demand for a cut this summer, and then saying we are done. i don't think the market is dependent so much on a fed cut. it's clear that the bar for a hike is much higher than the bar is set for a cut. i think what you have to do here now is earnings. you have to get earnings growth. for 2020, estimates are still at 9% growth, and the only way that that is realistic and credible

is if there is more investment in the u.s.. so now earnings have to meet what the market is saying the real economy is going. the market is saying the real economy is going to have an uptick. ed: it seems like something we could all get on board for for 2020. do we strike a deal? where does it take us in terms of activity levels? jennifer: a lot of people are expect and that in the lead up to the election, there will be some sort of resolution, a mini deal, whatever can be had. clearly, that weighs heavily on the market. i've still been quite surprised during the course of this year, despite this constant narrative around trade deals, the markets continue to just be up and to the right, and confidence, consumer confidence, is very high. alix: you have a goldilocks kind of scenario. you have low rates globally, and

companies needing to get that earnings growth, and they can't necessarily generate it organically. is that an explanation for why m&a has held up? jennifer: i think there is to a lot of organic growth happening. in the tech sector, we've seen significant growth. . but one is not enough. it. is not enough just to grow organically. the rate at which you need to grow to be competitive requires m&a as well, so it is not either or for most companies. if everything has been going along normal despite the trade war and geopolitical headwinds, what happens if those things start to evaporate and dissipate? jennifer: it depends. we could have something catastrophic that drives the market in one direction or another. i don't have a cristobal. none of us do around all of that. afford to sit around pondering trade deals

endlessly, and meanwhile, your competitors are getting stronger . they are doing deals, they are growing organically. again, consumer confidence is high. people are buying. investment is still being made even though it has slowed toward the end of the year. i just don't think you can afford to sit still and wait for perfect clarity on these things. ed: and the financial market is still very robust. jennifer: money is cheap, and that weighs on people as well. the ability to raise large amount of money to do deals makes for a much better financial profile when you are explaining those deals to investors. alix: so where is the risk? if you are not seeing the big rally, necessarily, that you would expect in a negative trade deal headline, how do you hedge that? alicia: the market is pricing in some deal because it is in the interest of both countries to

get a deal by the second quarter of next year. the risk is that tariffs are not rolled back. the market is now pricing in a robot have tariffs. . back,iffs are not rolled mother is concern whether this can come to an end at all. it turnseally where here. that is your risk. the market is already priced in a deal. alix: that also goes to how our companies paying for these deals. is it going to be increased stockge, or their own because you wind up having this rally that never wants to stop? jennifer: i think it's all of the above. companies are definitely considering and using stock because their stocks are high, and it is maybe a moment in time where you really need to pounce and do the deals you want to do while you've got that elevated stock price. debt is cheap as well. to some extent some of the ceos

and boards that i deal with are pushing current market sentiment to the side and looking 10 years out, 15 years out. what assets do i need to have to compete? with a high stock price and the wind at my back, is now the time to act. i am going to have to deal with any factors that come along, but i cannot afford to be building with the assets i need. alicia: is there anything pulling those deals forward, that there might be a lift for a -- for merger friendly administration? jennifer: i think that is weighing on ceos and boards, the regulatory environment i could be dealing with. i think that is pulling things forward and ipo's forward. a very big brazilian fintech

company this morning made a very big deal, just under $2 billion. to be launching in december, right at the end of the year, i think should tell you something about the need to act. alix: great point. alicia levine of bny mellon investment management and of jp morgan are sticking with us. france is taking aim at technology companies in the u.s. we discuss how the u.s. might respond to the french digital tax what it means for the regulatory environment, and what all of that means for m&a. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: the ustr is going to

announce today what retaliatory actions it plans to take against france to an response to a digital tax instituted this year that will hit large american tech companies. still with us, jennifer nason, jp morgan global chairman of investment banking, and alicia levine of bny mellon. overhead protect looks enormous in 2020. jennifer: it is a global risk for all technology companies, whether you are in the enterprise or consumer business. the french issue is just one of many, and it clearly ways on m&a ofparticular because understanding which environment you are dealing in, which had ministration you are dealing with, in various jurisdictions ash which administration you are dealing with, and various jurisdictions around the world is a huge factor. ed: how can investors hedge for that? big picture, you have

globalization going in one direction, and increasing protectionist sentiment in the other. how do you actually price that in as an investment? alicia: it is very difficult, but i want to go back to the france issue. part of the reason they don't have the same multiples u.s. markets have is they have less tech. when a country like france comes in and starts trying to regulate our successful tech companies, it is just another reminder that the innovation is hard to happen in europe when there is so much pressure for regulation and taxing this kind of innovation. in terms of hedging the risk, i think the interesting thing here is that if there is any kind of legislative action or administrative action here, you could depress multiples for a while, but the other thing that happened is you wind up entrenching existing winners. in a funny way, regulation is a double-edged sword. it is a negative headline. you put icap on multiples for a while. think about what happened to -- you put a cap on multiples for a

while. to --about what happened jennifer: what it does do is deals we thought would never happen, plays that would never get regulatory approval, we now think you are going to dust off those files and look at those again because the world has changed, and regulators may view other players as the enemy versus others that are perhaps struggling, and now we may seek and elevation affected that we may see consolidation affected -- we may see consolidation affected. i am thinking sprint-t-mobile is one example. jennifer: or what happens in cable ultimately in some of these industries. that would be logical for regulators to think that way, and i think that increasingly is going to be the case that people make, that you really should be focused on amazon or facebook or

others and not focused on some of these more legacy industries where consolidation should be allowed to happen. alix: so what kind of m&a do we have to look at? jennifer: a lot in legacy media and telecom. could there be more on the telecommunications side going forward? when you're competing against amazon, a $1 trillion company, scale is going to continue to be important. ed: you mentioned a lot of these companies are thinking about deals that will play out over the next 10 or 15 years. how do you marry those two things because they are so conflicting? in 10 years, our whole industry might be upside down. investors say that today, it's not going to fly. jennifer: ijennifer: think you have to look 10 years out. you can look today and say the world has changed. it is not just about at&t and

verizon and so forth. we have all of these big mega tech companies dominating the world. maybe you should let others merge to create a more healthy competitive environment. there's a lot more pressure on that, and a lot of those old files are getting dusted off and looked at again. that is across every sector. alix: alicia, do you want to buy new tech or old tech? alicia: old tech has the headline risk right now, the big thatfirms that, firms dominate social meet -- firms ,hat dominate social media communications. it makes sense to look at those areas. right now we have a reversion to the mean trade going on for sectors that simply were exposed to the global slowdown, had not performed until recently, so it

is an interesting place to go. alix: alicia levine of bny mellon and jennifer nason of jp morgan will be sticking with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." president trump reimposing tariffs on steel and aluminum from brazil and argentina. president tweeting both countries have been presiding over a massive devaluation of their currencies. that, he says, is not good for u.s. farmers. the president again calling on the u.s. federal reserve to lower interest rates. the new ceo of nissan taking over with a long list of problems to fix. he will have to deal with decade , and relations with partner renault damaged after carlos ghosn's arrest a year ago.

week, opeceet this will discuss whether to extend current output targets rather than reduce. the reason, opec believes that relentless u.s. production will slow rapidly next year. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. still with ed and i, jennifer nason of jp morgan. how open is a market after wework for such a huge ipo? jennifer: i mentioned earlier, we launched an ipo this morning for a brazilian fintech company, which is a very significant deal. our pipeline is still enormous. we are expecting q1 next year is going to be extremely strong across all product areas, including ipo's. so if you are a consumer internet company with not a lot of visibility on earnings or performance, probably hard to go to market. alix: woerle real estate company

-- or a real estate company. jennifer: but there's a lot of companies out there, particularly on the software side, enterprise related, lining up to go public, and we will try to get ahead of the election noise. ed: wework did take some of the puff out, but are investors still hungry for new companies coming to market? alicia: the short answer is yes. i think if it is priced right, you have to have earnings visibility. what we learned over the last six months is that public markets are a nice corrective for what has been going on in the private equity world without ever increasing valuations and hoping somebody will buy the next valuation. public markets took care of that. i think that's a great message. it's a great message of confidence that the public market can actually adjudicate which companies have growth and which may be just have promises of further debt, possibly higher

revenue lines, but not earnings. i think there's definitely risk appetite for that. in addition, over the last 10, 15 years, we had a decline in the number of stocks investable in the u.s. equity markets, so there's definitely desire for it. ed: has that come through to the private side? we've seen this collective element taking these companies down straightaway. have private investors started to be more circumspect when it comes to valuations behind-the-scenes? depends: i think that on the business. have little visibility, no one wants to touch that right now. but for the other business models, i think interest is as high as it is ever been. what i think will be interesting to watch is a more bespoke approach ipo's. rather than everybody does it

the same way, direct listings on the rise. have a couple of those in our pipeline. there may be variations on a theme and a more customized approach to ipo depending on the company. i think that is going to be an evolution of the ipo market we see next year. alix: jennifer nason of jp morgan and alicia levine of bny mellon sticking with me. coming up, black friday record sales. we unpack the retail earnings season for robert burke. did you shop on friday? chopping --ut it my but i did all of my shopping online, which is silly because it is cyber monday. alix: do it again. this is bloomberg. ♪ gain. this is bloomberg. ♪ here, it all starts with a simple...

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that was easy! glad i could help. at xfinity, we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. so come ask, shop, discover at your local xfinity store today. alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am alix steel. happy monday. we had a risk on rally earlier but that was dented when president trump said he would reimpose import tariffs from aluminum and steel from

argentina and brazil earlier. then you had equities off the highs of the session. now they are pretty much flat. other asset classes are still low. selloff in the bond market. risk on risk off trade and equities reverse and the curb steeper. holding ontoities their rally after getting decimated in november. in the holiday season is upon us. yet black friday seeing over $7.4 billion in u.s. online veils as many shoppers spent the day clicking instead of lining up to buy. joining us is robert burke. nason levine and jennifer are still with us. to set the stage which is a good crossover from black friday to cyber monday. we talked to stacy widlitz. here is what she had to say about online. retailers are making it

so easy to go online and then you can pick up your product in stores if you feel like it rather than having it delivered. that is a win-win for the consumer and also for the retailer. who is the win-win for if we are all clicking? robert: it is really for the consumer. the consumer is dictating how they want to shop. if we look at the history of black friday, before you would have people lined up for hours and hours, they would rush the store. people would be damaged among the mobs. the consumer is taking charge. the smart retailers are making this a seamless experience, whether it be in-store or online. that is the win for the consumer. nordstrom who opened new york has been great about opening the small satellite nordstrom local stores, one on the upper east

side, one downtown and the west village. you can pick up your full price packages, you can drop them off and go to your full price stored to pick them up. the customer is in charge. if the customer is dictating the terms more, does that mean the retailer will lose margins? robert: there's a chance they may lose some of the margins. alix: they have more to lose? robert: they do not have much but they have to get the market share of the customer spend. black friday is not black friday. it is a black week or a black month. hardly a day. the retail federation reported havef shoppers this year done their shopping the first week of november. this idea you will control the customer and tell them what days they will shop is hard. and ifs more for tech

you want an iphone. for apparel and fashion it has become much less relevant. dealou look at the big that just happened, the lvmh and tiffany deal, that would make tiffany more exclusive, less accessible. the company started to find their place in the market by how accessible they are to customers? robert: it is always about supply and demand. excellent atly controlling the flow of goods. if you have too much flow of goods, all of a sudden you do not have demand in product. tiffany has always been good. this is a win-win for both companies. jennifer, how may more of those goods can we see versus what happens to the losers in the middle? itnifer: i'm not suggesting

is just deals among losers. there is a potential lvmh is a good example of a smart deal. the market for m&a in 20 and going forward is very rational, very smart, very strategic and occasionally quite bold. whether it is in the retail sector or across all sectors, we will see dealmaking with those characteristics. nobody is going crazy and swinging for the fences and doing things where we scratch our heads and say what does that mean, why does that happen? ed: the reason the retail story is so long in the tooth -- what are investors looking for on a fundamental basis? it is clear there are haves and have-nots. there are winners and losers in the retail space. the experience of walmart or target versus some of the other market businesses shows that.

investors are looking for a strategy. anthe end, you cannot do ak-47 and shoot everything you see and hope something sticks. this is long-term strategy and how you deal with the fact that this year 13% of black friday sales are online. that number will grow. many people i know do not walk into a store this time of year. that will grow. there has to be some kind of strategy looking forward, not just for the season but the next five to 10 years. those companies that do not have it are clearly in the firing range of investors. ed: the season is such a foggy thing because it is black friday week or black friday month. how should we think about the retail season? is it just christmas or does it extend much more? robert: this is unique because we have a highly shortened week between is mizzen new year's. it is feeling like what it used to be. it is a rush, a natural rush

because of the calendar. i look at target, who is doing that is nice to -- i look at target, who is doing the disney shops they launched with frozen products. that will launch people into stores. i do not know if many of us care whether it is online or in stores as long as it is happening. alix: what happens to all of the stores that are not working in the mall space, the macy's and the jcpenney? how do investors absorb that? robert: over the last five years, all of the retailers have looked at how big of a physical space they actually need and how consumers showroom in their space. there is not an easy answer. alix: are they all turning into jim's question -- are they all turning into gyms?

robert: you can only have so many cycles and restoration hardware's. are stilllls here performing and performing well. it is that wrong move malls under that that have -- that rung of malls under that that have lost the big box retailers and are suffering. ed: we see anything coming into retail that is not a function of the stress? jennifer: not that i can think of. did -- but your point of what happens to the real estate, there are a lot of entrepreneurs looking at the redeployment of real estate in anna thomas world where car parking spaces will shrink as the drive to e-commerce continues, what will happen to that footprint. the founder of huebner -- the founder of uber has a business called city storage systems, their purposes repurposing real estate.

we will see an industry emerge around that issue. alix: was a private equities trying to pour money into warehousing to take advantage of that trend. if you wanted to play the consumer, where do you play it? alicia: it is a great question. this summer you had all of the staple companies outperform. i still think you have to go for more specialty. we have a very flush consumer. we have the lowest unemployment rate in 50 years. in the end, the term in it of consumption is the wealth effect from the stock market and do you have a job? we are hitting both of those things. , think specialty retail consumer discretionary is the way to go. i would stay away from some of the businesses that are struggling. they are struggling for a reason. it is a long-term structural design. the pointlso raises is the consumer holding up local equity and global growth? tell,: from what i can

the developed market consumer is holding up global market economy. people are shopping everywhere and you see it everywhere. the unemployment rate in the developed market economies are at 50 year lows, which means -- and markets are at highs. you have flush consumers, you have pricing power on the consumer side, and with that you have shopping. i think that is holding up the global economy. the services pmi never fell below 50. alix: fairpoint. jennifer, what is your biggest risk in 2020? what will derail you? jennifer: i think it is something geopolitical more than anything else. something that is impossible to predict. something that comes out of left field that is unexpected. right now the market is fully

informed around all of the risks we talked about this morning and by and large are shrugging them off. i agree the consumer is very strong. i do not know about holding up the globe, that is a big factor in the u.s. in my mind it has to be something unexpected we do not anticipate that shocks the market into a different state. alix: thank you so much. great to get all of your perspectives. robert burke, alicia levine, and jennifer nason. thank you all very much. i want to give you an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with first world news. viviana: the white house will not take part in this week's impeachment hearings, but donald trump's lawyers keeping open the pop -- the opportunity he will be represented. the white house lawyer says the entire process has been unfair to the president and is criticizing the judicial committee for demanding response before any witness has been named.

beijing freezing port visas by u.s. warships. this after president trump's decision to sign the bill backing hong kong protesters. angela merkel's party is playing hardball. the christian democrats telling the social democrats there'll be no renegotiation to the terms of their alliance. the social democrats picking new leaders -- they say they will demand policy changes. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix? alix: thanks so much. coming up, it is one of the worst-performing stops in the u.k. talking about retail. we take a look at ted baker as shares plunge in today's bottom line. bloomberg users, interact with us at gtv on the terminal. all the charts you want to see throughout the show. gtv .

this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak." a marketing firm owned by carlyle group has gone bankrupt. the company saying it was working on a plan to hand over control to its creditors to keep up with changing taste. bake consumer product companies have decided to keep their marketing in-house. costco's website crashed on thanksgiving day. for more than 16 hours. one estimate is costco lost $11 million in sales. the retail giant trying to make up for it by extending thanksgiving day only promotions into friday. i am viviana hurtado. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: time for bottom line. look at three companies worth watching. first i am looking at ted baker,

that stop getting hammered in london. outside lawyers and accountants will review a statement of unsold goods, adding to the issues this company has by not being able to sell their inventory. ed: it is interesting. a lot of people like ted baker when i was a school kid. where is it in the market? alix: is at high end? it is not low end. ed: it is somewhere in the middle. i do not know who goes to buy it these days. it is a difficult one. alix: you are watching wall street? ed: more particularly the private equity industry. they are talking about how buyouts are down. everything is very expensive. we look at kate hill it is a very interesting situation. very hard to get down. we know keep your interest -- we know kkr -- is the market there to do it? if it does get done, the

question will be -- there would have to be co-investors. some pension funds, sovereign wealth. there is no way a private equity firm could take this on. alix: the third thing we are watching his knees on. nissan's new cna was committed t alliance with renaud and mitsubishi. >> we are in a position to evaluate the results and then distinguish what went well and what needs to be changed. bringfor more we want to in bloomberg automotive reporter craig trudell. this is a window into the car industry trying so hard to cut jobs. >> we saw a rash of announcements just last week with some of the european automakers, audi and daimler talking about thousands of jobs. nissan has been in shambles for the last year. the lost carlos ghosn, longtime ceo and chairman of the company. he was arrested.

you had a ceo who had troubles troublesn, similar overpayments by the board. this is a company that is struggling. profits are at decade lows and this new ceo is coming in, he was the head of the china operations and is under pressure to start turning things around. they seem to be willing to make a lot of meat carlos ghosn was more for the french side and the japanese side. they do not seem to have leveraged it? >> they cannot let the alliance fall apart. that is one of the things you heard was taking stock of that alliance. it is one that despite the problems japanese executives within the company have with the alliance and the discomfort with the fact that they own

significant amount of us, we unless of them, there is imbalance in the way this alliance is set up, they remain unhappy about. they know they cannot step away from this alliance. it is too entrenched, there is too much inter-tagline. you heard carlos ghosn talk about this is an alliance he wanted to make inseparable and that was his driving force before he was arrested. he has succeeded despite all of ans drama in establishing alliance that is difficult to break up. alix: the worst boyfriend break up. thanks. ed, it was a pleasure. happy monday. coming up, futures paring some of their gains after president trump's tariff announcements. we take a look at key levels on today's s&p -- on today's

technically speaking. tune into bloomberg radio on sirius xm channel 119 and the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time for technically speaking. we will set you up with some trades. bill maloney joins us. you can listen to them every day. squa . small caps broke out friday. where can they go from here? bill: down on friday. people watching down on s&p have been hitting records. there was a breakdown on monday of last week. now you have new support around 1500. your resistance is around 1630, which is the resistance level. and 1630. alix: how close are you watching this in relation to the overall s&p? we want to see small caps

participate. the s&p has been outperforming. we have had this big run up since the september lows, still in an uptrend. 10 day moving average has been support. that is 3125. that is your support level. resistance will be last week size, and wednesdays highs of 3154. alix: how much you trust the next couple of weeks? bill: santa claus rally usually goes into effect. usually december stocks go up. alix: 10-year, a breakout in terms of the yield, a huge selloff. bill: right now about 1.84%. on the 50 and 200 day moving average, a bit of a breakout today away from the moving average. resistance 186 and then 190 and then support back down to moving averages. alix: what is the breakout potential?

do you go through 2? arounde see resistance 1.86, then 1.9. alix: if you go past to, what is the next one? bill: i don't know. alix: your like it does not matter, we will not get there. you can listen to bill every day on the bloomberg if you type in >.ua

in other asset classes, we were talking about the bond market and you're continuing to see the curve steeper in the u.s. 20 or 21 basis points as the selloff continues. it feels like it is still risk on with commodities with crude up 2% after getting whacked on friday. there currency market feels calm. the euro reversing, now up .1% as the euro zone pmi comes in relatively stronger than estimated. now the question becomes do we need growth or is all about data stabilization in china and europe and ism and pmi on deck in the u.s. as well. that does it for the show on monday. happy monday, everyone. this is bloomberg. ♪

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪

jonathan: coming up, have we seen the worst of it? global manufacturing data showing signs of life. angela merkel's coalition partner pushing for losers spending. em under pressure as president trump hits argentina and brazil with steel tariffs. here is your monday morning price action. as the president fires up the twitter account, equity futures positive .1% on the s&p 500. the euro stronger than the dollar weaker. euro-dollar 1.1034. treasury market, yields higher by six basis points to 1.84. let's begin with the big issue. manufacturing data bouncing back. >> china pmi data that came out of her the weekend look stronger. >> green shoots for global recovery. >> green shoots even on the growth front good >> p