tv Bloomberg Technology Bloomberg December 2, 2019 5:00pm-6:00pm EST
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are feeling the pressure. our extended conversation with the ceo of qualcomm. why he thinks 5g will change the we -- forever. americans got out their wallets over the holiday weekend, spending more than $70 billion on shopping over that four-day period. basics, testing cheap warehouses which will storemerchants to resources near amazon delivery locations. it will let merchants avoid storing their goods in amazon's warehouse base where they pay premium prices. we are joined by spencer. what do we know about the new service called storage and replenish? know they are giving ins a try and -- a try
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southern california. ontario, california. with amazon this time of year, it is always a race to create capacity. it has these expensive automated facilities with conveyor belts, robots. those facilities are expensive so it is not smart to use them for storage. amazon needs to supplement the storage capacity for those facilities with cheap, plain old warehouse is nearby. they are kind of scouring the country for cheap warehouse space near their other facilities around the country. to me more about that. you said they have that one warehouse in ontario, california , but notably that is only one, which means it is not ready for cyber monday, for example.
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are there concerns that there were not more of these locations heading into the holiday season? has an that tension during the holidays, amazon its capacity. it only wants the fast-moving inventory in there. it does not want to clutter up the space storing goods that are not selling. what amazon historically has done is it has simply raised storage fees to try to discourage merchants. independent merchants that sell things on amazon, to keep them from putting things in their warehouses. the risk of that is maybe they can run out. this is kind of like the happy medium. we don't want your stuff cluttering our warehouses in peak season but we will provide a warehouse nearby that is cheap so you can have the stuff nearby in case we do need replenishment. it is kind of like the next them wanted to
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de-clutter their warehouses. taylor: what has been the merchant reaction? spencer: if it goes well, it could be favorable. that has been the concern. when they did? storage fees, they had to make this critical guessing game. just enough to get through the holiday season. if i do not send them enough, i am losing sales. if i do not send enough, i am getting hit with high storage fees. this is a way to get a little sendf a buffer so you can more than you sell without getting penalized on the storage fees. that inwe often hear the shipping business, it is that last mile that is the hardest. how does this help amazon both in the middle of the supply chain and in the final mile to get the product to the front door? spencer: especially as amazon
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goes for this next day delivery pledge, they are trying to ship more and more to next day as opposed to two-day. if they are going to accomplish that, they have to have inventory close to shoppers. more time to react as soon as someone hits buy on their internet to the time they g et the order out the door. where you used to may be have a handful of facilities that could adequately serve the entire country, now you need maybe 16 stations to reach the majority of the population the next day. that means you need these ancillary facilities around it to feed into the system. taylor: bloomberg technology's spencer soper, thank you for joining us. to continue our conversation
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about cyber monday, let's bring in steven. how has this cyber monday compared to previous years? en: the holiday season is off to a really strong start. black friday, the additional transactions, this black friday was up 19% compared to a year ago. going back a year, that year was up about 20% over the year before that. in your opinion, is amazon the key player that is the key winner in all of this? dan: it continues to be their world and everyone else is paying rent. look at walmart, target, year-over-year numbers. this continues from an investor perspective it some of the products, the apple, air pond,
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others. -- airpod, others. taylor: we just came off the investments of amazon, is that ?ost paying off yet dan: i think that is starting to pay off but it will play out in the next 6, 12 months in terms of shipping. right now,ommerce you are starting to see a narrowing in terms of the competitors right now. it is that last mile that continues to be the focus of investors to really close the gap taylor: -- close the gap. taylor: stephen, how much has the pressure increased to get the shipping time faster? steven: earlier in the year,
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there was talk about amazon not being able to sell what they called crap products, can't return a profit. a lot of it is coming from the competitive pressure that dan mentioned, traditional retailers like click and collect, by online and pick up in-store, they have had pretty good years of self. i want to show you a chart that his department stores hitting a rough patch, fallen 1.6%. this is hardly a new trend. mentioned, have walmart and target, what are they doing to be able to take on the companies like amazon? dan: it is really around inventory. playersany e-commerce
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that they have hired at walmart, it is about inventory. it is no longer asleep at the wheel. it is a narrowing of the cap. consumers are smart. it is not just amazon. that continues to be in the eye of the street, who are the winners. you have to play feather in the gap for walmart. taylor: are walmart and target also the clear beneficiaries? stephen: they are clearly pulling away from the competition. the digital world, just as you have seen google and amazon pull away, as we look in specific categories of e-commerce, we see the same thing. who in your opinion has been struggling? who are some of the losers who have not been able to keep up? stephen: when we look at companies who had a big boost from black friday, it has not
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always been a positive story. victoria's secret, forever 21, gamestop when we look at our data, we sometimes call it the trifecta. a big boost around black friday but a big boost also in paid search. and they had falling faces. that is a trifecta that is tough rebound from. incorporatedo you hannel,se of the omni-c whether it is curbside pickup, great delivery service. dan: it is all about the cost of getting an incremental customer. if you look at amazon, it is all about prime. once you are in that ecosystem, you will spend incrementally more. nel,s around the omni-chan it is not just what amazon is focused on. that isat every one
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chasing them is focused on. you are seeing across really the landscape here. taylor: dan, you cover apple, so i would be remiss if i let you go without asking quick question here. forecast for the holiday season when it comes to apple. of airpods, 65 million units. above 11 tracking 10% expectations. if that continues, this will be a stock that will have a three in front of it next year. and danstephen kraus ives, thank you very much. monday forped on roku. the bank said roku could see revenue and profit growth slow meaningfully next year. through monday, shares were up 400% this year.
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redor: u.s. stocks in the on monday with tech leading the losses. the tech heavy nasdaq closing down more than 1% for the tech sector means the star performer in 2019. 25% gains this year. joining us from new york to discuss, there is a -- to discuss if there is a faang overhang or if there is room to
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run, big johnson. johnson., craig happening orbigger just a momentary pause? aig: i think this is just a momentary pause. stocks have gotten a little bit ahead of themselves. from a technical perspective, we percent ofany-plus stocks above rsi, i would not be surprised to see a little bit of profit taking. this is a market that has really been pushed higher really on the fomo trade, fear of missing out. that will get some trade done in washington and equity markets will push ahead. perhaps the market got a little ahead of itself and today's price action was a reaction to
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.he commentary taylor: you have a chart in your 99 page report called the faang overhang. higherneed faang to go in order for everything else to go higher? theg: i think you will see faang stocks participate. the chart i had included in that particular marketing here for the east coast marketing this week was just to make the point equallythis is an weighted index that is not broken out to all-time highs. despite the market having made multiple new highs this year, a lot of these stocks have this index. let me just add that, even if we
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don't see this faang index breakout to new highs, we will see the expansion and the overall breath of the market in that case. a lot of gets tied up in those faang stocks. i think that could be a very healthy broadening of the market. i think at this point in time, you are starting to see that happen. taylor: one of those stocks that you are bullish is apple. apple's market cap is worth more than the entire s&p 500 energy sector combined. walk me through why apple is not overvalued at these levels. craig: first and foremost, let's start with a chart, then i will walk back to the valuation side. that we are making in a series of higher highs and higher lows. the stock will can out of a
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valuation range over the past six months or so. this is a stock that had taken a time consolidation and is starting to work its way higher. when you look at the overall apple products leadership, it is not a stock that looks like it is tremendously expensive at this point in time. if i could just kind of and my peter lynch -- kind of add my peter lynch type of perspective, my wife and i had a chance to go to the mall of america on black friday. i am not sure you could have gotten more people into that apple store. taylor: so you are not factoring in regulatory or antitrust overhang in any of these tech stocks? thinkingspend time about price, trend. right now, i don't have trend breaks and a lot of these large
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cap names. i think that is adding to the fuel of the wall of worry. you continue to see stocks, tech stocks, apple, some of these other names continuing to climb that proverbial wall of worry. right now, and till i get a trend change, we need to play .hese stocks to the long side taylor: is it a fundamental or technical issue? craig: when i was going through and looking for names to include, i was viewing this market from a more positive perspective. i was pointing out stocks that were more constructive. i do have a-net, a smaller name. for overall, some of these big stocks and tech names look good. there are a lot of names in the semiconductor space that, to me,
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look like names that still have room to run and work. taylor: we would love to have you back. to expand more on that thesis. johnson fromg piper jaffray. coming up, the french president is calling for more control of her big tex. bloomberg technology is livestreaming -- control over big tech. bloomberg technology is livestreaming on twitter. this is bloomberg. ♪
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french president emmanuel macron has toughened his stance on big tech. companies that collect 25 million euros in digital sales in france. retroactively applied from the beginning of the year of the move follows a raft fines by the european union against companies like facebook and google. i want to bring in laura davidson and washington, d.c. france has been much more tough when it comes to big tech. what are the new laws and conversations? laura: they are looking at a tax , saying the consumers and france are not necessarily paying for the service but that the consumers are there and france should get a piece of that pie. you are seeing a lot of other
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countries. the u.k., new zealand looking at passing those laws. in some cases, we have seen more of these get on the books. the u.s. sees this as their tax revenue. these are american-based companies and they are saying, if anyone gets to tax facebook, google, amazon, that is us. taylor: has the conversation shifted now to an antitrust or data privacy concern? laura: that is part of the concern but really the big tension point is you get the u.s. saying, look, you don't get this money. the others are saying, you are operating here, you have employees here, our residents are using the service. what are seeing, a large multilateral level, 130 countries sitting down and trying to see if they can figure out some system of which
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company gets to tax which company. on one side of the other, you have the u.s. and france. france saying, we will abandon our digital tax if you can get others to agree to something. taylor: how does the u.s. respond to protect our entrepreneurial spirit in the tech sector? laura: that is something we hear about today. the u.s. trade representative has been looking at this. they opened up this investigation to see if there should be some sort of trade reaction. they are looking at tariffs, some way to punish france to say, look, if you will do this to our tech companies, we will do this to some of your products. president trump in the past talked about tariffs on french wine, for example. it will be a 90 day waiting period with comments and back and forth. the u.s. is seriously looking at
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starting a tit-for-tat at all here. taylor: --tit-for-tat battle here. taylor: it is notable that they are not ruling out -- how would you do that in the eu? laura: they are trying to figure out, where would you draw a line of what is big tech and what is a smaller startup? you are looking at pharma, manufacturing. it is a really big 800 pound gorilla that makes it really hard to get every side to agree to the tax. this means that some countries like the u.s. could end up losing out while some countries like india and china and appointing. taylor: bloomberg's laura davison, thank you for joining us. coming up, china is cracking down on cryptocurrency but miners are still creating tokens. this is bloomberg.
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taylor: this is bloomberg technology global link where we join bloomberg daybreak australia to bring you the latest and global tech news. i'm taylor riggs with shery ahn in new york and haidi stroud-watts in sydney. let's take a look at the top level tech stories of the day. shery: goldman sachs made its third and biggest latin america fintech bet yet. $125 million to mercardo credi tor in mexico. it plans to use the funds to triple its $100 million working capital portfolio. goldman's previous two loans companies. mexican
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another blow to the co-working market space, rocket space is pulling out of london. the u.k. employees have been told last month they would be out of work by december 20. bloomberg has learned san francisco-based rocket space will refocus on funding services for startups. india's shopkeepers are uniting to take on the likes of amazon. bazaars across the country over the past week complaining that global e-commerce giants are engaging in predatory pricing. in october, india's government announced an investigation into the accusations. amazon and walmart told bloomberg their operations comply with local laws to operate as third-party marketplaces. those are the top global tech stories we are watching. taylor: the end of the year has not been particularly been kind to bitcoin and other
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cryptocurrencies. 7/10 of- gaining today 1%. it's now at a nearly 20% decline over the last month. it is not just bitcoin. other cryptocurrencies have also fell off after chinese authorities crackdown on the trading assets. joining us to discuss is spencer bogart's, general partner at blockchain capital. take a look at the chart i am showing inside my terminal, all about the fundamentals. trying to support the 200 day moving average but it does not look oversold just yet as you can see on the screen. your thoughts? spencer: overall, china late has been driving through the price action of the last couple of months, but you would think it is challenging to read between the lines on what china is doing. we have seen favorable moves in terms of xi jinping's move to blockchain the whole country. we have seen some moves like
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bitcoin miners who were once put on a list of industries being eliminated from the country, it has been removed from the list. we have seen some crackdown on some of the smaller, shadier crypto exchanges, some of the larger ones seem to be getting more credibility within the country. does the fate of blockchain, of bitcoin, these digital assets depend on a clear trajectory from china? because as we know from a lot of their policies, it can be one step forward, a couple of steps back, sideways maybe. there is not a great deal of consistency. how high are people betting on the future of digital assets? spencer: absolutely. i don't think bitcoin's future is anyway dependent on what china does. it is helpful to zoom out and get away from the near-term headlines because in general, any short-term trading strategy around bitcoin is the wrong one.
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the question people to be asking is bitcoin going to be more successful over the next five years than it is today? if we look at the underlying trends, they are very constructive. bitcoin has gone from being a joke a few years ago to processing $1 billion to $3 billion of transactions daily. over the past two years, bitcoin has processed more than $1.6 trillion of transactions. whether it is that or the other startups we are seeing, particularly a lot of the on ramps of companies like coinbase, we are seeing a lot of positive growth across the industry. taylor: what about some of the regulatory overhang and the struggles that facebook, libra has had to face? does that help or hurt? spencer: the regulatory overhang israel. there are concerns the regulators can make it more difficult to acquire bitcoin. but overall, bitcoin does not necessarily need regulatory approval the same way libra does. it was launched in this nondescript kind of way and now
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spread around the world. there are 40,000 nodes around the world supporting bitcoin. its success does not hinge on regulatory clarity, but as the overhang clears, it is definitely constructed for bitcoin. haidi: if you say trading is not the way to view or play bitcoin, and you need to take a longer-term step back to look at the possibilities, how do you actually capitalize on that opportunity if you are not trading? spencer: i think one thing's position sizing. to take a step back, i think it is a bolder bet to say bitcoin will be less successful over the next five years than the past five years. all the trends suggest otherwise. whether it is the value of transactions processed like i discussed or what do people think of bitcoin. we ran a survey in fall 2017 in the middle of a raging bull market, we had another one in spring 2019. it surveys more than 2000
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american adults. we use it to gauge the general population's awareness, perception, for in the me familiarity, and penchant to purchase. what we saw over that period, despite a significant market decline, the metrics were up across the board. people are learning more about bitcoin. they have more convictions in the future and there will be more purchasers moving forward. taylor: more people are learning about it. the retail audience is more engaged. they are understanding more. can you assume -- we hate to use that word -- that bitcoin continues to move higher? spencer: i think so any over any reasonable time horizon. over the next three years, we are very constructive on the price of bitcoin. one thing that is coming up in a few months is the having, bitcoin's third halving. the new issuance.
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oud,or: the e-commerce, cl advertising and markets amazon targets should grow by double digits between 2019 and 2025. this is all according to bloomberg intelligence. e-commerce could expand at about a 10% compound annual rate. pivotal research analyst michael says and a lot -- amazon estimates remain stubbornly too high and people should sharpen
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their pencils going into 2020. michael joins us now. let me talk given that it is cyber monday, any talks on how amazon could be poised to benefit from a big day like today? michael: i think they are very well-positioned. the value prop of one-day day shipping last year. that seemed pretty aggressive from an advertising perspective. we think they are definitely gaining share. taylor: i want to talk, if you take a look at a chart here that i am showing in my terminal, it is frankly that amazon has been underperforming the rest of the retail audience. you mentioned the one day shipping. is that investment, is that cost paying off yet? michael: i think it is too early to say but when i look at the quality of the management team, their track record of execution, i think they are making the right bets. the one thing i would frame that is worth noting is they rolled this out in the june timeframe. something i found striking was
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how quickly walmart went ahead and responded. probablyinking is if you are seeing some plan in the wings by the likes of walmart that may have pushed amazon over the brink. i think they are making the right investment decisions. i think it increases the value proposition of prime. it is not going to be cheap. to your point, when you are framing the relative performance of the stock, just looking this morning, you see how much estimates have come down for 2020 since the beginning of the year. it has been pretty profound. taylor: so, the first line in your note here is amazon estimates remain stubbornly too high in our view. what segments within amazon appear the most overvalued to you? michael: i don't know if i would call it overvalued, but i think through the three major segments of the business -- retail, which obviously has been impacted by the one-day shipping cost. aws and advertising.
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i think that people's estimates for aws, and we were pretty alone out there in terms of talking ahead of this quarter, saying you will not see any sharp down in margins. we still stick in the camp. i think we were a little more hopeful a few months ago that he ofl you would get to q2 2020, you see a rebound when the step up happens in terms of hiring aggressively and the one-day shipping. we think those two headwinds will be a bit more persistent than the current thinking. a little bit of both. taylor: talk to me more about the margins within the aws business. i heard more and more recently that they are having to do some discounting to make sure they are gaining market share relative to microsoft's azure cloud product to stay ahead of google's cloud product. has that been factored into the analysis that discounting into
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cloud space? michael: my sense is you have basically gotten adoption along a couple of main chunks of the business. infrastructure, everybody understands it at this point. database, they have been incredibly successful at in terms of storage, incredibly successful at. the workloads are getting more complex. trying to explain to somebody the value of, ok, i can migrate away from oracle, one database on aws. people get that. when we get into things like ai, machine learning, clients and a lot of cases are not ready for themselves either. i think a lot of the lean-in in terms of hiring is this recognition of getting the next series of workloads to migrate over to public cloud is going to take a lot more handled by way of comparison. for what it's worth, if i look relative to microsoft, microsoft really does not have a strong a
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cultural of account management. i think amazon is probably thinking they can use this to their advantage in terms of gaining share. taylor: how much of the lowering of the estimates can be attributed to a regulatory overhang, antitrust, all of the headlines coming out of washington? michael: i think it is probably a rounding error. the lion's share of the estimates in terms of where we revised, we actually cut our numbers pretty aggressively for aws. we took it down a little bit. we came to this recognition that, yeah, you will lap one day shipping basically stepping up, but what has not happened is a big fulfillment center buildout. we will look back in a couple of years and we will realize, wow, they actually needed to do a lot to get to an efficient ecosystem of doing one-day shipping. but, this really just started a couple months ago in the big picture. taylor: michael levine, of pivotal research, thank you for
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joining us. we have a few headlines we want to bring you. the first is the u.s. is proposing $2.4 billion on a tariff on french goods. this appears to be in retaliation over the digital tax that france has enacted. again, proposing $2.4 billion tariff on french goods over the digital tax. the second headline is the u.s. is now considering probing a similar issue on both turkey, austria and italy over those digital taxes. we will bring you more as we get them. hasl ahead, the youtube ceo appeared on prime time tv in the u.s. to defend the role of the video sharing platform. we will find out what she says, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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minutes, susan wojcicki defended you to's role as an open platform and push on calls to revoke laws that shield the company from liability. the video sharing platform has been under pressure from advertisers and regulators over conspiratorial and extremist clips. joining us to discuss is bloomberg's mark bergen. coming up and defending the video and content on youtube, what did we learn yesterday? mark: this was an overview of what susan and youtube have been talking about for the past year. r's,call it the four responsibility. a lot of employees are late to this but they are working to recommend all of this content less. in january, they introduced something called borderline content. they gave examples. a youtube video that has an outright lie about a medical cure or something false about something like the holocaust or 9/11.
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their plan was rather than taking the videos down because they don't violate the terms of service, we will recommend them less. that has been the tactic. last night, susan shared some results that said 70% -- americans are seeing 70% less of that content. taylor: continuing to say we don't want to be held liable for the content because if so, we have to review it and if we review it, you will see less content. mark: she did a good job of arguing something youtube has said publicly and privately in d.c. talk about section 230 which is a law with youtube and facebook that does not make them liable for user generated content. this is the first, her discussion about the possibility -- she asked if they should be liable for the content they recommended viewers. susan says if we had to do that, we would have to spend a lot more time moderating that and people on youtube would have less.
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in a sense, youtube would not really be youtube if we have to be responsible for the content. taylor: another thing that caught my eye has been political ads. google has fallen somewhere in between facebook and twitter. continuing to run an ad from president trump which makes misleading statements about joe biden because they say does not violate our policies but they will take down other ads that are blatant lies. can you walk me through those policies? mark: google and youtube have been pretty opaque in this process so far. they put out a statement saying changing their ad policies and one thing that will change is looking at all ads that they say have misleading information, specifically about voter suppression or the election. it is a political ad that says, i don't know, tell voters to vote on wednesday rather than tuesday, that is one they would take down. something like the biden ad from the trump campaign which was about a candidate, that is not qualified.
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in that sense, they are taking the same position facebook has helped. the trump campaign came out last week and said google was involved in voter suppression with this election campaign. they are in between a rock and a hard place. acrosss a full on policy their advertising portfolio, not just political ads, which seems smart but the repercussions will continue throughout 2020. taylor: all things google and youtube. that was mark bergen. thank you for joining us. 5g is fundamental technology change that will affect the way people do business. that is according to the qualcomm ceo. he sat down with caroline hyde to discuss the importance of 5g and the role qualcomm plays in this technological transition. take a listen. way see it kind of the same like electricity or water or these fundamental technology changes that change the way people do business, for example.
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that is really how people in the industry are thinking about 5g. clearly, it will impact the cellular industry. you will see a lot of benefits for the consumer and operators. you will also see when you have the ability to connect everything in the world, it is going to change the way people do business. it is going to change the way factories are structured, it will change the way we deliver health care, logistics. this whole digitization of business and the infrastructure of the world will be very significant. it is actually one of the reasons why you see so much international desire to be first in 5g. thes because everyone knows fundamental technologies are so important to the rest of the economy, make sure you are not behind. caroline: at the moment, what is the economic impact? do you have gauges from the u.s. perspective, global perspective? steve: we issued a study that try to look at the impact of 5g
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in goods and services out to 2035. the number was $3.2 trillion. a tremendous amount of money. if we did that same study three or four years ago, it was $12.3 trillion. it is already scaling. people are seeing this happening. i think it is a very positive element. when we look at the broad customer base or partner, a lot of people talk to us about, hey, i know i have to be doing something in 5g. help us figure out what that is. the number of people and the breath of phondth companies have increased. caroline: what are some of the more surprising industries that have walked into your door? steve: two of them. one is, i would say industrial, factories. what you want to see in factories is i want to be able to reconfigure it very quickly. and the data that comes off
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machines, like a robot that is making a car for example. tremendous amount of data comes off there. it is the actual fundamental ip of the car company, and how can i reconfigure the factory? they can change how quickly how they react to the market in terms of having different model year, it can be reconfigured quickly. tremendous desire to do that. the other one is the just excreted you think about a city like new york. moving things around, we have not really done dramatic changes in the technology to move things around other than to just create more streets. when you can connect everything and figure out how to optimize that, and you can do all the ai and big data on moving goods and services, people and things around a city, and as cities grow larger, that is a tremendous advantage to those cities. there's a lot of desire for people to get things connected
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so they can start that in a big way. ofoline: do you feel a sense responsibility that you are a driving force behind this technology, that you are in a race to win it for the u.s. to a certain extent? steve: probably broader than the u.s. if you go way back, the highest level of abstraction is about not really creating a bigger pie. you are trying to make the market grow, and particularly in areas where a market is developing that did not develop before, we do well in creating value for our shareholders. what we think about is how do we create an industry that does not exist? what are the fundamental technologies we need to create? how do we scale them, share them with everyone? what we don't do, because we are not good at doing this, is figuring out what is the end product. what we try to figure out is what is the hardest technology and what can we deliver the biggest piece so that people can innovate on top of it? from that perspective, you look
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and say, whoa, logistics is going to be big. digital health care is going to be big. what do we need to do so that 10 years from now some company that everyone will know will develop and use these technologies? if we can do that, we can deliver for our shareholders and really deliver for this goal to grow the pie, i guess. ceoor: that was qualcomm steve mollenkopf. that does it for this edition of bloomberg technology. bloomberg technology is livestreaming on twitter. check us out. be sure to follow our global breaking news network, tictoc, on twitter. this is bloomberg. ♪ here, it all starts with a simple...
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haidi: very good morning. i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney. we are under an hour away from the market open in japan and south korea. shery: i am shery ahn. sophie: i'm sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. welcome to daybreak asia. ♪ this: our top stories tuesday -- u.s. stocks fall on renewed trade fears. markets digest new tariffs for brazil and argentina. and warnings on additional duties on china. beijing hits back with
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