scarlet: we are approaching the market close and we are looking again at a pretty broad advance. heavier than usual volume as well. no, i take that back. that was yesterday. on a day where you see gains, down a little bit here, off 8% since the 20 day average. that is what tends to happen on these days of less precipitation when you have a pullback, a lot more activity. romaine: we should point out 70% of the s&p still pulling above the moving average. financials have been getting whipsawed around because of what has been happening in treasuries. the kbw bank index about 1.2%. scarlet: the under performer today is the nasdaq because of software companies. let's dive deeper into the action with our different reporters covering different asset classes. abigail: let's take a look at bonds, because this chart may suggest that today's rally, it may continue.

what we are looking at is a six-month chart of the s&p 500. we are looking at treasury note futures in white. that is actual price. we see coming out of june we have treasury note futures basically flat and rallying. stocks went sideways. in september ec a strong downtrend. in today's pullback for bonds ec the downtrend really holding. it could just adjust. december could be what history are,sts decembers relatively strong. michael: one thing we don't talk about is the indian stock market. etf trading today, msci indian etf is a standout. very strong move today. indiaof speculation the bank will cut interest rates by 25 basis points tonight. one thing that really stands out

you look at the benchmark index in india is its evaluations. it is trading near a record local currency basis, but the evaluations have really sort. index not trading in more than 29 times trailing earnings. you can see the top line. what is more interesting is the evaluation taste on forward earnings, the lower line. it is above 19 times forward earnings estimates. that is really a level that has sort of capped the index's rally and caused a bit of a correction. sellers appear to be betting that history may repeat itself. according to ihs market data, the short interest on the etf goes as high as 21% shares outstanding in october. come down a bit but still pretty elevated at more than 18%. the bears really have set their sights on the indian stock market these days. taylor: i am taking a look at

shares slack. as we close lower today by about 4%, and really the shares have fallen about 40% since first day of trading on june 20 when they hit a record high. it has pretty much been downhill ever since. we are waiting for earnings to come out at any moment. a lot of analysts are saying there is a lobar for the big decline in the stock price year to date. a lot of competition concerns. the bulls on this story looking for growth to help stabilize the stock. estimates should be around $185.3 million. you can see on the long-term basis, the threat of competition is coming from microsoft. that is one thing analysts are looking up. morgan stanley says the big debate is whether competition will limit expansion in the enterprise. they want to see if you can go from free to paid force of scription, to see if that is working. we will see if they release earnings any minute. romaine: thank you.

still with us is jeff kleintop, charles schwab chief -- sarah, i want to start with you. we talk about equities and we seem to talk a lot about in a vacuum. when we look at what is going on with the other asset classes, treasuries or the dollar or elsewhere, all those tight correlations we saw going back to 2018 as sort of lead to a lot of pressure when things broke down. are we seeing those same correlations this time? sarah: i don't know if it is necessarily as strong but if you look at stocks and bonds, what is interesting is many days we talk about the fact that stocks and bonds have risen together. 6040 portfolios are set for one of the best in years because you have such gains in so many different asset classes. another year in which basically everything went up. i donna people are saying this is going to have to change, but also when you think about correlations, i have been paying attention at correlations within stocks. correlations for the s&p 500 for

example. after a day like yesterday, yes, we talked about the vix rising, fears over what will happen with trade negotiations. we also saw a huge jump in implied correlations for stocks on the s&p 500 showing that many people are just selling altogether. people just wanted to get out because fear rises, that is when you see correlation take up and stocks trade together. joe: i want to go out to jeff on this topic of correlations. because obviously this year has been a fantastic story for the diversified portfolios, stocks, bonds, by and large both did fantastic this year. spot,s sort of sweet goldner vona, going to last -- golden nirvana going to last for investors where they can see gains from both sides? jeff: i think there are couple things going on here. for one thing, across the equity market, the 20 largest

stockmarkets in the world, correlations have come down, well below where they were around the financial crisis and its aftermath. back down to the golden era of the 1970's and 1980's and 1990's correlations were fairly low. that is great news. the other thing i'm excited about is we are starting to see some life in value stocks. while they move up and down together, value stocks have dramatically lagged growth stocks. the new life we are seeing in financials, value stocks and national stocks, generally speaking the last few months is a good sign. maybe it is a second win for the stock market. new leadership in an area that has been left there want -- f behind for a while. allowing stocks to find new leadership. that could be the story for 2020. dorlet: how financial stocks depend a lot on 10 year yields and bond yields head over wall. in looking at that i want to bring in i seven services data,

which disappointed. it showed expansion, unlike manufacturing. certainly raises concerns about strength of the consumer. the bare talking about being much lower for rate cuts now than the bar being high for a rate hike? jeff: in general, no. i think the fed is fairly content of where they are at the moment. i don't that we have seen much of a rebound in production despite we have seen manufacturing pmi pickup. now services have come down a little. the more important sign is what happens with fiscal policy. be , the u.s. hands may tied, but india unveiled a very big for skillets -- a stimulus package. it might be a handoff to fiscal policy in 2020 from monetary policy to get that growth back on track. regarding the u.s. market, obviously strong update. one area of weakness was cloud

companies. this has been an area that has not been as strong as the rest of the market overall over the last several months, maybe starting in august. still skeptical about going back to these superhigh valuation? it's an extremely expensive sector. sarah: this has been top of mind since we work. outlooks we got rough from the likes of workday and salesforce software companies. this also fits into the rotation that jeff was just discussing between value and growth. as people do look ahead to next year, trying to figure out where they want to position their portfolios at this time, software has had such a strong run-up as a growth company, and people are wondering whether or not that can keep continuing. so, anytime you see a disappointment in outlook you see it pared back a bit. romaine: when you look ahead

into 2020, you look at the performance of 2019, extending those gains, how much of that will be dependent on salesforce? jeff: i don't think a lot. i think the fed has done what it is willing to do. unless we see no trade deal at all and a much deeper pullback, we will have to see what the fed will do and we are unlikely to see gains. but the bigger picture is on the fiscal side, really a focus on what more can we get out of germany, japan, a number of companies that have taken a little step, my take a much larger step to the point where we saw the u.s. back with tax cuts, really began to pick up earnings growth outlook, and that could really turn things around in an environment where no one is looking for a lot of growth next year. scarlet: we have made a lot about how there are a lot of calls for international talks to opera from the u.s. market next year after years of u.s. outperformance at the expense of global stocks. how much conviction is there behind that call? sarah: this is something seen as

being more fundamentally driven but not so much tactical, just more of a long-term call. i was speaking with jp morgan asset management this week, they discussed the fact that yes, they do believe it is likely that international fundamentals will move higher, and that will lead international assets higher as well. however, they feel much more confident in saying that as a long-term call rather than just a call for 2020. romaine: we are going to leave it there. our thanks to jeff kleintop and bloomberg news across asset reporter sarah ponczek. that does it for the closing bell. would you miss is coming up next where we are going to speak with leo about the new york mets selling 80% of the team to steve cohen. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

york.e: live from new snapshot of how u.s. stocks close today. the dow, s&p and nasdaq all back above short-term daily moving averages. words, speak louder than especially when it comes to a trade deal. bloomberg reports the u.s. and china are closing in on an agreement despite harsh rhetoric. and big payout for big ag. president trump's billion-dollar bailout may be paying growers more than a cost them. and billionaire steve cohen and talks to buy 80% stake in the major league baseball team the mets. scarlet: mr. met, i love that.

breaking news. kkr naming a new cfo. bill is retiring at the end of the year, the current cfo. he has been at the position for 1.4 years and he is retiring. robert will take his place as cfo. scoopturn to a bloomberg and talk about the driver for today's market action. u.s. and china said to be inching closer to a deal despite tensions over hong kong. the latest twist in this saga helping reverse yesterday's actions. before we get to cameron, who will interpret the reaction, talk us through what happened when it comes to trade discussions. what have we learned versus what do we hear from the president? sarah: it seems that colette has changed yet nothing has changed in the past week. we saw markets at record highs

last week. trump said they were getting close to a deal and people were taking solace in that. of course we woke up monday morning to a lot of trade news including what looked to be skepticism from trump that a deal could even be reached before next year. so what we are reporting today is despite all these talks, cut through the noise, the two sides are making progress in negotiators still hope to get a deal by december 15 when the next round of tariffs is supposed to take effect. it is about 1.5 weeks away, so a lot of work still needs to be done at of that and a lot of uncertainty, but it looks like negotiators are still working towards december 15. romaine: so we get to december 15 with the tariffs still in place, what will be the market reaction? cameron: bad. the stock market will go down. dollar will probably go down a a safebit, then go up on

haven type flow. and it is taking a cynical attitude, it looks like every time the stock market seems to feel worried about this theff stuff they scramble verbal plunge reduction team or whatever and begin a leak of, oh, things are going well, hang on. joe: i think what was jarring about president trump's comments yesterday that may have unnerved the market was not that he was necessarily not concerned about the december 15 deadline, but that election 2020, which is much farther out than people were thinking. point, how much is the risk of market volatility weigh on the president's calculation? sarah: we do know rbc the markets are important for the trump administration.

and the president himself also closely. he has cited it as a measurement of his success in running the economy and making these decisions. so it is something he tracks closely. i think a shot of reality to this as well as trump will want to go into the 2020 election campaign with a deal. he does not want to go in saying i am still in this long drawn out fight with china. so there is incentive for him to have a deal before the election, despite what he says that he can wait until after them, in his view he will be reelected. so there are some realities at play here. toaine: people are trying gay read on what is happening on a day-to-day basis and how -- people are trying to get a read on what is happening on a day-to-day basis. what do you a peek at to get a sense? i like to look at it through a few different vectors. chinese currency versus a broad dollar.

still quite a bit of risk priced in. if you look at price action over the last month, the dollar versus the yuan is basically near its highs whereas dollar versus develop markets -- on a relative basis the yuan has weakened. when you look at shipping, i like to look at fedex which has obviously a global reach, versus railroads, which is quite domestic. that is pricing in quite a bit of risk. although if you look at equities, u.s. stocks have a high revenue base in china. they have actually done quite well. romaine: i was behind your desk one day and i saw your spreadsheets in my brain is still reeling from that. cameron: that explains my personality. scarlet: we likely spreadsheets because he bring us the highlights. looking ahead, are there any formal talks scheduled? any phone talks scheduled that we should know about as we get towards that december 15

deadline? sarah: our sources are telling us that the talks are continuing. they are obviously at the highest levels, but we do not have a clear sense of a next round of formal discussions, if or when that will take place. and we certainly do not know yet whether the leaders still plan to meet to sign this phase one deal. that was supposed to happen last month at the apec summit which was canceled. that gave them actually more time to try to get a deal in order. whether that is good or bad remains to be seen. but we do not really have anything but this december 15 of what we in terms are looking ahead to. trump will have to make a decision whether or not to go ahead with the tariffs based on progress of the talks. scarlet: giving us the latest on trade in the markets. while they were talking we got earnings from slack technologies, the workplace collaboration software maker. looking at the results,

third-quarter revenue, $158 million, beating estimates of $156 million and change. third-quarter bottom line was a loss of $0.16 per share. loss the previous quarter was $0.98. in my looking at that correctly? looks like the loss narrowed. third-quarter adjusted loss per share. $0.02. on that basis it was a more narrow loss. however the stock is down 4.5% billings.because analysts or looking at 754 million. up tously it had seen $610 million. joe: coming up, trump's trade aid. more on why his bailout for soybean farmers major largely end up in the hands -- this is bloomberg. ♪ bloomberg.

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report. breaking on the financial stability oversight council will open a formal investigation and collected and scrutinized to find out happened. a lot of pressure on the treasury and the treasury secretary steven mnuchin to do more investigating as to what happened there. f soccer announcing they will do that investigation. scarlet: let's get a look at what stories are trending across the bloomberg universe. schroders is cutting hundreds of jobs around the world as it grapples with a downturn in the industry. firm has reportedly

been eliminating positions for several weeks. the cuts will affect about 5% of its workforce. on bloomberg.com there is a not asn a macro fund popular as the billionaire himself. even though his 600 page book for successful principles has sold 2.2 million copies, is macro fund has lagged behind the past eight years in roughly 2% decline this year is shaping up to be one of his worst years on record. it is rare and money manager's stature with the public seems so at odds with the recent record as an investor. quick takes by bloomberg is reporting that retail work is riskier than factory jobs. nonfatal injuries increased for people working at a mall, a store or an outlet in 2018, making them menu -- more dangerous than manufacturing jobs. overexertion, falls, sprains and tears. we were sores are furniture stores and tech supply stores. farming --

you can follow all the stories on your terminal at bloomberg.com and on quicktake by bloomberg. trump's $28sident billion farm bailout may be paying many growers more than the trade war with china has cost them. six academic studies to the u.s. department of agriculture's calculations overshot the impact of the trade conflict on american soybean prices. joining us with the story from washington is bloomberg deputy what has that at their mike sorting -- how did they arrive at this conclusion? michael: what they are looking at is the net effect of the trade war on soybeans. soybeans gets more than half of the direct payments for trade. but has been the most visible component in this $28 billion package. they are looking at how a trade war has actually affected the

price of soybeans and what they have found is that it is about half of what the agriculture department has use for its calculation of trade aid, meaning at least for soybean farmers, they are getting about double what is really inflicted by the trade war. the sametment has used methodology for other products that are likely also overstated. joe: so what are the rules regarding this? obviously none of this aid has actually passed through congress. so the president is doing this unilaterally. what does the law say about the flexibility the ministration has to engage in this, and does it give parameters for how to calculate the appropriate size? mike: what it does is it has to be trade-related. essentially, the president is using a little line and some

legislation passed during the new deal era setting up something called the ccc inside the usta to do this without congressional approval. so it has to be related to the trade damages. now, the chief economist at the usta told me they picked this method mostly through internal discussions. they were not legally obliged to do it, but they felt overall and made the most sense just to calculate the gross trade damages. in other words, all the impact of the sales they lost to china without figuring in the fact that, hey, when brazil sells more soybeans to china, europe and other countries are then buying more soybeans from the it isand consequently, not as big an effect. but at the end of the day they thought this was easier and a way to do it across the board. joe: our thanks to bloomberg's mike dorning. coming up, the new york mets and

talks to sell 80% of the team to steve cohen. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

mark: the ranking member of the committee says quote, most americans are getting lost house lays out evidence that president trump was trying to pressure ukraine toward investigating his political rivals.

quote a disgrace and a sham. about chairman talked this about the founders being a foreign influence but what he did not quote was the founders being concerned about political impeachment. because you just like the guy. one said the evidence against president trump isn't strong enough to meet the threshold of an impeachable offense. george's republican governor has chosen a wealthy businesswoman and political newcomer to fill a vacancy in the u.s. senate. rejecting president trump's referred candidate in a play for moderate voters. the governor formerly -- formally announced his selection

today pushing aside intense criticism from her courtroom advocates who wanted him to appoint representative doug collins one of the president's staunchest defenders. she said she makes no apologies for conservative i use. i have not spent my life tried to get washington so here's what folks are going to find out. conservative,g pro-second amendment, pro trump, promilitary, pro-wall. the threel succeed term senator who is stepping down at the end of the month because of health issues. she will only be the second woman in history to represent georgia in the u.s. senate. former president jimmy carter is back at home. he was discharged from the hospital today after being treated for a uti. has overcome several health challenges in recent years most recently, he underwent surgery

to relieve pressure on his brain caused by bleeding from a fall. global news 24 hours a day on air and it quick take on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. billionaire steve cohen is in talks by up to 80% of the mets baseball team. our guest is a titan of the sports business world. great to speak with you. thank you too for taking the time. steve cullen was already a minority investor in the mets. as a reporter reminded us, there has been talk in the past that he would increase his stake. why do you think that the mets and steve cohen are engaging in

further discussions to increased his stake now? >> there are a handful of teams where the competition among the orders -- owners is as cute as the competition between the teams. steve cohen will do a stunning job with the mets. there were stories today in new the about the yankees in yes network working in ownership to stream their baseball games. it is important that the mets have an owner capable to do the same -- same. to stay competitive. steve cohen is a brilliant a business person. he is a passionate new yorker and mets fan. controlanted to own and a baseball team for a long time. it is no prize that he picked the mets, his hometown team. >> with regard to the potential profitability and growth of his team, buying a team in a major

market like new york city certainly gives it an edge up. if you look at the trend line for major league baseball, is the trend line for the fan base trending in a way that is going to be supportive of a valuation of 2.6 billion or whatever it could be valued at once we know the value of the deal? >> in this marketplace, it is probably just price. this is new york the biggest media market in the united states. the dodgers ae of few years ago in los angeles. at roughly the same valuation. the reason i am not skeptical is because steve is a consummate businessperson who will bring insights to the way the sport is evolving to the team management. an amazing lost athlete today to the phillies. the phillies for five

years at $118 million. that's not the kind of number that the current ownership could have matched. it's important to the fans to see it steve: someone who will stay competitive with the theees on the west coast dodgers. with whom they will compete directly. >> what about, we know that the continued torall be on a bull market. there is a of talk about baseball, losing popularity and people complaining it is too slow. newer generations don't seem as into it. is there a specific risk with baseball team valuations or are the fundamentals for sport seems so good that even if isn't as popular as it once was it is still in good shape? >> that is a point well made. the sport has to adjust itself

to the realities of the marketplace. young women and men are not the fans their parents were. the sport has to find a way to engage with people. streaming games on laptops and handheld devices will make the game more intimate to the younger generation, the millennial's. i am not without skepticism in some parts of the country. and even evaluation's that are flying around. i think it is highly important that it be steve: if it is true that he is buying that large of an interest and that much control i think it is a wharton for the fans who might be listening today and even the business people in new york to realize that steve cohen is just a cut above. i think he will bring competitive insights not just to his team but to the league as a whole. he is one of the owners who will quickly rise to the top in terms of influence. insertill bring insight,

-- influence and resources. the mets have their own cable television network, sports net new york. what should he do to up that game? ,> whatever the yankees do steve needs to do for the mets. and mets fan is not a yankees fan but there sometimes envious if they thought the mets fans were not keeping up with the newer technologies, the doorways to bring product into your left or mobile device, that would be a very bad outcome for the mets. i like the mets. i like the current owners. i think they found in steve: someone who will share their passion but also bring resources and insights that they haven't necessarily brought on their own.

coming up, one bloomberg columnist says what shoppers won't save the u.s. economy. we will talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

black fridayes on and cyber monday have strengthened the case that u.s. sales might continue to prop up the economy. a lot of us are banking on the consumer but you are the grinch. explain to us how much the consumer contribute to gdp growth and how much they can continue to support gdp growth.

>> last quarter, they contributed 1.9 percentage point to gdp growth. since then, we have seen consumer spending has inched down. it has been sliding down since the peak in 2018 but not as fast. going forward, where looking at a number like 1.5% of gdp. last quarter, we saw bad productivity growth. one way of interpreting that is that firms were taking on more workers. they did not see as much demand as they thought they were going to see so the workers were not as productive as they could be. if they come back to a level that is consistent with 1.5%, that is somewhere around 60's -- 60,000 to 70,000 jobs per month, that is more than we have had the last eight or nine years.

at that level, if we have jobs at that level, my fear is that will spark a negative spiral where consumer confidence is going to tank. people will spend less, less gdp growth even fewer jobs, that's the danger scenario we have. >> it is all a confidence game. having said all that, housing is starting to recover. the fed has made it clear that it is standing by to come in and do what it can. it has cut rates three times this year. a source of support for the consumer and the economy? >> some people were skeptical that the tests were going to do anything at all. you'll also see people -- this credit card balances go down which will give them more money to spend. toiness investments

declining. usually, that drags around the economy. housing and business investments usually lead the economy and right now investment is sliding down. the invest -- the slide is difficult to deal with. we have such a strong consumer in 2018, they have so much momentum but if they don't have health they will lose steam in 2020. >> i want to ask a conceptual question. consumer holding up the economy, consumer spending, consumer feeling good -- what does it , to to hold up the consumer separate that from other aspects of the economy? in eldin factories or more machines that you need, that is much more tied to interest rates and expectations,

business conditions. where the consumer is smoother. i don't know if i'm getting exactly to what you're asking. >> that was our bloomberg opinion columnist. i was thinking how does one answer that within 20 seconds? thank you so much. >> it is time now for smart charts with abigail. this week, you are going very long-term. >> yes we are very long-term. our guest is with fidelity. before we look at your first 50 years charts, you are a regional brokerage consultant with fidelity. within the community here in new york and on a national level, you well-known because of your charting skills. at the same time, you are

dealing with the high net worth clients. i am curious to know what their interest is in charts. your high netor worth individual clients? >> absolutely. my clients come in and they all want to know things around charting. the thing that charting allows you to do is risk management. cost,'s your opportunity how much risk are you taking to get to the next level? is this a total valuation or should i stay in the trade? >> one chart that your clients must love is this one. it is very dramatic. not to scale. the story is clear. >> there is no shortage of drama here. we have the transport versus the dow average.

when people think of markets, they think the doubt average. that's the oldest and most well-known. very few people think about the transports. i have millennial's come in all the time and they say i have 30 or 40 years, what should i invest in? i tell them about the s&p and indexes and i say if you have an appetite for more risk, transport. the only thing that i like that are than the return you got from the dow average is this white line which is transport. 865% betterbably return overall than you had on industrials for the last 40 years. >> the aria of congestion up top, does that come down as we get to the new transports or technology, the big tech names that i would associate more with millennial's. >> your alert -- alluding to dow theory.

looking at this as compared to industrials, people are concerned if the market is in rally mode and tech is leading the way, you said tech is up nearly 40% for the year, we are looking at the move that industrials have. you can see transports are lagging a bit. purists want to see the transport at all-time highs. of wonder in the age technology, do we need this? every time you hit the amazon button, that has to get shipped. >> now let's look at it index you love. this is an etf. the earth issay breaking out. we have breakouts across the board. it's not just the s&p /phenomenon. worldwidee entire index that is breaking out. you can see we broke out, we had a pullback for the last few days

that if you're interested in something up trending, it's always great to be a part of it just as it is beginning. your risk reward is your best odds because it's like falling off the current and you have all of this upside potential of blue sky ahead of you with no resistance. >> where would you set a stop? >> i start looking at the last couple of lows and your biggest low would be your highest amount of risk you would take on. >> thank you so much for joining us for smart charts. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

>> now to asia ahead. a chinese stock closed below its listing price on its debut for the first time in seven years flashing signs four-week investor sentiment. for more, let's bring in shery ahn. this is a minimum terry a company. it fell below the ipo price.

thing or is there something about chinese risk sentiment? >> it's not a bad thing when you have the story come up. the first time this is happened in seven years. about companies that surge as soon as they debut. the maximum is 40% in china. this company falling more than 2% on the shanghai board. the positive here could be that not only is it the first one in seven years but also the fact that china is allowing the market to be more market-driven. in the past, we have seen -- theties restrain magic number was 23 so every time they debut, you would see a surge. that is not happening anymore. >> it's like helicopter parents.

let's talk about what beijing is doing overall with his capital markets. >> we have seen beijing trying to prop up the capital market trying to make them play a more active role when it comes to growing their economy. we are trying to support that. it comes at a time when they are trying to calm markets. so everything is ok for the market. this week, the china securities journal had a front page commentary and we know how chinese media works. in that they were saying that liquidity will be fine next year. in that sense, the fact that we are seeing this risk aversion for the chinese markets, ipo's not doing very well, it doesn't come at a good time. >> i know you will be talking about hong kong again on daybreak. >> it's bad all across the

board. any number we get out of hong the pretty bad, this a showing you the business outlook throwing -- slowing to 38.5. we can go as far back as that but that would be 2003. now.etty ugly right no end in sight also with the protests now going on for six months. thank you so much. that was shery ahn. you can check her out starting at six clock p.m. eastern time. there is plenty coming up. a conference kicks off in tokyo tomorrow. >> i will watch the reserve bank of india. it announces its december rate decision. a quick programming note, i will be speaking with senator elizabeth moran -- elizabeth warren.

>> what's on the agenda? >> everything. taxes, health, everything. that's it for would you miss. >> bloomberg technology is next. ♪

♪ >> i'm taylor riggs in san francisco. it this is bloomberg technology. coming up, a dramatic expert -- exit. is losing its ceo and cfo. this follows executives at google. the tech sector is saying a lot of goodbyes. national security risk, a u.s.