not to cut? saudi aramco potentially prices at the high-end of its market range. sen. warren: i'm a capitalist. i believe in capitalism, but markets without rules are fixed. alix: senator warren threatens to break up megamerger's and proposes sweeping changes to big tech and other industries. announcing ae package, the first country to move from qe to fiscal support. heavy news flow leading to some upside in u.s. equities. chinese officials apparently are in close contact with u.s. counterparts on trade negotiations, according to the ministry of commerce. that is lifting the equity market. any bad news, like german factory orders, potentially more oversight on amazon, perhaps a fine for fiat chrysler merger not being priced correctly.

time to for global exchange. we are going to bring you today's market we would news from all around the world. our bloomberg voices are on the ground with this morning's top stories. want to start in japan. prime ministers shinzo abe and i'm sick stimulus measures to keep recession at bay. that package amount to around $239 billion. going to me on the phone from hong kong is enda curran. does this match expectations? what is the read in terms of growth? enda: slightly bigger than expectations, but nonetheless it is an important shift. there has been criticism for some time that the boj has put much run the course in terms of what it can do for japan's economy, so economists had been saying more had to be done on the fiscal side. this could help offset a recession. the economy has been hit by natural disasters, by weak exports, and there's a feeling that this money may endure beyond the 202011 picks in japan olympics -- the 2020

in japan next year. -- and fresh spending that is leaving markets and impressed. there's also a new consumption tax being rolled out in japan. clearly when you have new consumption tax coming at the same time as fiscal stimulus, the two will work off of each other. there's a view that it is positive. it is a positive step by japan's government, and probably reflects a broader shift globally for governments to start spending more, but i think a few economists really think all of the pressure is off of japan's economy in the near term. alix: thank you very much. great analysis on that. we turned out to india, where the central bank defied all forecasts and left rates unchanged. the decision comes despite last week's gdp data showing a sharp slowdown. joining us from mumbai is aloomberg economics' indi

economist. why did they choose not to cut rates? so they offered a pretty weak rationale in our view for keeping rates on hold. topotentially said it wanted follow a wait and watch approach to see if the inflation trajectory would pan out. expecting concerns with higher inflation. near-term inflation was apparently driven by food prices, and is expected to reverse, even according to our own projections for the year ahead. at the same time, r.b.i. has now downwardly revised its full-year growth projections by a massive 190 basis points since the august review. rpspite such a sha downward gdp growth ejection, it chose to pause on interest rates. in our view, that just come look

at matters further, and is only going delay recovery. any chance of a sharper recovery can now be ruled out. the hope is for a shallow recovery going ahead. alix: thank you very much. now we head to vienna, where opec leaders are debating whether or not to cut more oil production. bloomberg spoke to nigeria's petroleum minister, who says his country would agree to more oil cuts if needed. >> it would be a tough decision, but we will have to come to it if that is the position, yes. alix: joining me from vienna is bloomberg's annmarie hordern. easy to say, harder to do because they are not in compliance. what is saudi arabia saying? a quide: they are taking pro quo approach. will they cut if the cheaters get in line? if they don't get in line, the

saudis basically saying that we will continue to take back market share. they've been cutting well below their quota. one thing that is really striking at this meeting, and i've covered a number of these opec meetings, is the atmosphere. it is the first meeting for his royal highness as energy minister, really keeping a tight lead now on what everyone is saying. after meeting yesterday at his hotel room, all the ministers came out, and there was no comment. very elusive. i'm hearing from analysts that the saudis are under pressure due to the aramco share price. for the markets, the bottom line a there was this proposal 400,000 barrels a day. some say we need to go deeper. great reporting.

we are waiting for that saudi aramco pricing as well. now we had to the u.s., where we expect a slew of data today. we get trade balance in durable goods, initial jobless claims in the next hour. last look before that jobless numbers tomorrow. he was more is michael mckee. mike, set the day up for us. michael: you could say today's numbers are all about trade wars. with the trade balance. last week's report showed a slight narrowing as exports and imports both fell. services, which generally show a surplus. the forecast overall is for a narrowing in the trade balance, but that is not what's happened overall since the trade wars began. the trade deficit has expanded. ,e also get a look today revised numbers on business investment, capital goods orders as part of the overall factory numbers.

the initial reports i surprising increase. get joblessoned, we claims. another report on the labor market. range forrt of in a most of the year, and then they broke out for a couple of weeks. last week flipped back into the range. holidayst week was a with thanksgiving, the numbers aren't very trustworthy with wall street. we will have to wait for friday's jobs numbers to get anything definitive on the labor market. alix: looking forward to that. thanks very much. now we turn to amazon. the retail giant is facing widening antitrust scrutiny in the u.s. beyond retail operations. sources are telling us that ftc investigators are looking at the massive cloud computing business. joining us on the phone is bloomberg's senior analyst for antitrust litigation. walk us through what we may know and the significance of any shift. reporter: sure, good morning. bloomberg news has been reporting that it looks like the

u.s. federal trade commission is investigating not just amazon's retail practices, but also the cloud computing business. what bloomberg news has reported is that the ftc has been asking software companies, companies that have applications that run aboutud infrastructure amazon's practices. that is a sure sign that it looks like the investigation has broadened, or at least has now moved over to cloud computing. what we don't know is whether the federal trade commission from the beginning always intended to look at this business, or whether this is something new. it does happen when an investigation is ongoing on one part of the company's business, the federal trade commission has extra mary access to documents and emails and executives -- has extraordinary access to documents and emails and executives, and they might have found something of concern in this area. these investigations are very fact intensive. whether or not they decide that wrongdoing occurs, we are still very far from that. but it is significant they are

asking about this business and digging into that side of amazon's revenue. alix: thank you so much. appreciate that. now we had to d.c., and staying with u.s. politics, democratic presidential candidate elizabeth warren says she is no enemy of capitalism, but the u.s. economy is working better for the rich man then it is for regular americans. sen. warren: i'm a capitalist. i believe in capitalism. fixed, without rules are and part of those rules are that everybody is supposed to pay fair share on taxes so we can reinvest in opportunity for all of our kids. that's what a 2% wealth tax is cent for me -- what a two wealth tax is about for me. alix: one of the few things she discussed that would change the game for companies and rich folk in the country, kevin. kevin: exactly. it was a great interview. at also comes on the same day as the front runner of this race,

vice president joe biden, is releasing that tax plan. in terms of how he would position himself in a more pragmatic approach, his argument, in terms of navigating geopolitics domestically, trying to bring together the far left movement that elizabeth warren represents right now, and juxtaposition with the more moderate approach of moderates and independence. biden that, as joe continues his bus tour at the grassroots level through iowa, really, what i'm hearing from top democratic strategists in washington is keep an eye out for senator bernie sanders. if you look at the polls, he's really been able to maintain his status, along with elizabeth warren, as a front runner, but his poll numbers haven't dipped significantly despite advocating for medicare for all. we saw elizabeth warren fall slightly in the polls after espousing that policy. back in washington, all eyes

continue to be on the impeachment front. the white house barely blinking. i spoke with several republicans in the senate yesterday who continue to tell me that largely, this is still in the political sphere, and we aren't is many comments from speaker of the house and a people oc, 9:00 a.m. -- speaker of the house nancy pelosi come out click a.m. -- nancy pelosi, nidec like a.m. new york time, on impeachment. alix: we want to highlight some of the retail stocks moving. tiffany's and dollar general reporting. dollar general is a beat and a raise. they raised their full-year earnings guidance. they also saw solid comp sales. tiffany is a different story. they missed on earnings, and the real winner in terms of comp sales was japan, but you had americas coming in light, down 4% in constant currency terms. coming up on this program, more on your morning trade and analysis in the markets in today's first take.

this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ alix: time never bloomberg first take. joining me from our in-house team of wall street veterans and insiders, vincent cignarella, former fx and rates trader and of the bloomberg audio squawk, squawk, damian-- sassower, and also columbia threadneedle's cio. got bank of japan stimulus,

and it seems like nobody seems to care. vincent: it is an invention that monetary policy is an admission that monetary policy has reached its end game. when you have markets getting that kind of news, it is a glass half-full type of scenario. it is needed, but it is probably about $100 billion of stimulus, and then you have the european issue which we will talk about in a few seconds that may take , and that on an 86 trillion dollar global economy is really a drop in the bucket. reporter: i agree with the point -- guest: i agree with the point that the central banks cannot do anything. it is really important that we begin to move away from that. although this is a small first step, i think it is a very important one because of the messaging about the failure of central bank policy over the last few years because they've been left to do it on their own. damian: i think the markets are

pretty clear they just don't believe that abe is going to be able to deliver the fiscal simulant. a very esteemed fund manager i respect greatly said fiscal stimulus is a pipe dream. it is not going to happen. how easy is it to inject fiscal stimulus? monetary stimulus is easy. fiscal stimulus is a whole different ballgame. colin: i do hope it starts this ball rolling where maybe germany has to reconsider. i agree, $100 billion on its own is not enough, but it does start this catalyst of germany has to rethink, the u.s. perhaps has to rethink. . it's one of the areas of big concern for me. growth domestic debt to gdp. the pan has so much debt, and now it is probably going to add

to it, but all of these other countries have a lot more room to maneuver here. of that the flipside with the european situation is trump-nato. socgen put out a report saying if france, italy, and germany come up with the extra half percent to reach that 2% level for contributions to nato, that amounts to about 35 billion euros. that's going to suck away from what they want to put into green deal and infrastructure. if they don't come up to 2%, they are likely to face tariffs, which runs counter to the whole fiscal stimulus measure. so europe is in a bad place. asia is in a much better place. europe is going to do come up even bigger to match both with the united states is demanding and still meet fiscal stimulus, which i don't think they are going to be able to do. that $250 trillion of global debt, that big number, everyonene, so long as

can pay it off. the issue be income a look at china. if you look at the number of defaults increasing in china, it is almost at record level. the fact of the matter is it speaks to china's willingness to allow these companies to finally default on sale. that is a pretty big change, and i thing we are finally starting to experience that in markets. is the stimulus going to come from in 2020? till risk on the upside is going to be emerging markets that deliver any positive growth momentum into the next year, if at all. colin: maybe two points about that. emerging market growth will be better than developed market growth. i accept that. what it is getting slower than it used to be, so that additional impetus is lower than it used to be, but still positive. i do think markets, on the first point you made, will take that positively.

i think they may see through the lack of stimulus in 2020 two another catalyst that pradaxa growth further out. -- that predicts growth further out. damian: i couldn't agree with you more. we are here trying to figure out what we are going to do over the next three minutes. vincent: i totally agree, stop throwing good money after bad in china and letting the situation clear out is a positive, but if we don't get past this situation, emerging markets may grow faster than developed markets, but if developed markets aren't growing, emerging -- marketsley can't simply can't. colin: it is about where the money gets spent. economieshe developed can spend more. vincent: if that is what is the

demand from trump for the euro to come up, which is u.s. defense spending, also green spending, none of those really do what we need fiscal stimulus to do at the moment. alix: you wind up having factory orders in germany on excitedly declining. i feel it normally, the u.s. would be down on this news, talking about when we get fiscal stimulus, but we are not seeing that. is that a fiscal stimulus hope, or is that something else? are we ignoring bad news today? vincent: the euro has been down again sterling a lot recently. it is hard to move it these days in a big way. when you have bad news pushing it lower, you probably have people taking profit against something like you are crosses recently, which have been depressed because you are going

into a u.k. election and taking money off the table. damian: on the technical's, it is a bottomless pit. back to the level of fully 16? i don't know, -- of 2016? i don't know, but you see a lot of traders pushing that level. it remains to be seen, but i think if we take a step back, you're in factory orders, the manufacturing slump still needs time to work its way through. if you look at what india did , they shocks the credibility of the r.b.i. overnight by doing that, but thea is not stimulating and extent people would want to see to get growth back. colin: price might be a big issue as well. why react to german orders now if we feel we are getting some conclusion to the brexit dilemma? perhaps that restores business confidence going forward. i do think it is reasonable if

the markets don't react to this announcement. despiteazon is up 0.4%, the fact that we got the paper yesterday from elizabeth warren that doesn't totally expand on antitrust. in my just trying to create a narrative where there isn't? damian: when i look at what warren is talking about, using about corporate margins going down, inflation probably taking up because of allowing the workers to unionize. -- tos a lot to dig digest around what she's talking about. the question is how much of it is reality. vincent: inflationary in price, deflationary in growth because none of those things usually suggest economic growth cycles. the other thing is i think the government has been looking at amazon for quite some time as being something like 45% to 50% of e-commerce sales. i would to just they've been looked at already. alix: fine, i will take the

glass half-full. damian sassower our, vincent cignarella, we switched roles on that. usually i'm deposited one. colin moore -- i'm the positive one. colin moore of columbia threadneedle will be sticking with me. check out all the charts and more at gtv on your terminal. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak." tiffany's third-quarter earnings coming up short. the luxury jeweler reporting profit that missed the lowest analyst estimate. in the americas, sales falling more than expected. asked month, lvmh agreed to buy tiffany's for $16 billion. general motors will join forces to build electric batteries for cars in the u.s. the batteries will be built in ohio. both companies will invest $1 billion each. later today, we will speak with general motors' ceo at to

neglect a.m. here on bloomberg tv. over to italy, where authorities fiat chrysler underestimated the value of its business by $5.6 billion. that could result in a $1.5 billion additional taxes. fiat chrysler saying it disagrees with the government report. it is confident it will see the bill reduced. talks to mergein .

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." by alix steel s&p futures up 0.3%. we had some potential conversation continuing between

the u.s. and china. that seems to be the overwhelming theme of the day. retail in general in europe up almost 1%. you have potential luxury mergers, like aston martin. guccive the maker of looking to take a stake in another luxury retailer. in other asset classes, not a lot of movement. the cable rate up by 0.3%. to him as him build. it feels like a boris johnson victory as may be getting priced in. we have a 100 day plan coming out from boris johnson and his party, so part of that in the optimism. hard to trade over the next week. the curve is about 20 basis points in the u.s.. oil up by 0.4%, the best winning streak in about seven weeks. holding onto those gains, opec leaders meet in vienna to debate whether or not to cut oil production. number caught up with nigeria's oil minister, who said his country -- bloomberg caught up with nigeria's oil minister,,

who said his country would agree to more cuts. >> it would be a difficult we would comply. alix: joining us now is abhishek , jp morgan head of oil market research and strategy, and with us still is colin moore of columbia red needle -- of columbia threadneedle. abhishek: saudi would perhaps reduced to similar levels going into 2020. there's no reason why they should go away from that. seeing from the

meeting clearly is that they want higher oil price, but at the same time, they don't want to take all of those cuts that they took in 2019 themselves. alix: to that point, if you take a look at what opec is producing, what the quota was, and what saudi is doing, they are obviously cutting the most, but they are saying to russia, we will let you take out of your quota and we will make sure to cut, but you've got to comply. is that the horsetrading you are hearing? abhishek: it is. it is a quid pro quo, at the end of the day. they do realize that markets are not balanced in 2020, and that oil needs to be taken out. in our balance, we initially said that that oil will perhaps be taken out by saudi oil compliance. iran and iraq perhaps doing a little bit of compliance. what we heard from ann marie there is that saudis are not

ready to take that burden of all the cuts. they want to share that burden with other producers. alix: if you take a look at what saudis are expecting in terms of deficit and surplus, how much of that in your world is demand versus supply story? demand is not contemplated enough. it is traditional this time of year to talk about supply, and it feels like deja vu to be talking about compliance yet again, but i just don't see that we are going to get the surge in demand. there's really two elements. we get that, and emerging-market are not growing as fast as they were, and they are big marginal consumers, and then there's also this reaction function we have in the oil market now of how quickly u.s. shale production could come on board if they are successful in compliance and getting the price up. then the supply side changes

quite quickly, which is different than it used to be. i wonder how you would think about that in terms of that reaction function. abhishek: going back to the 2020 outlook, we took the view that macro is changing a little bit. our economists are coming up with the argument that, if you look at monetary policy, they are easing. potentially even u.s.-china deal on phase one. on that front, it is likely different now than it was a few months ago, and that is slightly moderately positive for oil demand, especially given the fact that 2019 was a weak year in terms of oil demand. on the supply side, i completely agree. u.s. is going to be much lower next year, so that kind of helps to tighten the market on the non-opec front, despite a lot of new supply coming into the market from countries like norway. but that's why the decision opec mixed today is quite crucial,

that we might in any way get a bit of into this to oil prices -- a bit of impetus to oil prices. all of these cuts may or may not be good for demand in 2020. alix: you buzz raised a critical point in terms of u.s. supply because no one has any idea what u.s. supply is going to be. this chart shows it. some in the oil industry for decade, and they are pretty bearish on what they see coming out of the u.s. opec is one of the more optimistic on what they will see, and that is a huge swing. , what, 6000,g at 7000 barrels a day swing? colin: that has a big impact on the final price. i don't see those balance of factors you've been talking about getting the price out of the current range, that the five dollar, $65 range, which still -- the $55, $65

range, which still doesn't meet the need. i think we will be bouncing around in that range. i completely understand why the market has such a wide range. 2017, it went to 2.2 million barrels per day. you can see such a big swing, and going into 2020, we are 800,000.t i think the problem is the markets are doing analysis faced modelsls which are price and well completion models versus the company guidance for the earnings season, which is a little bit with a caveat, but not all complete have given guidance for 2020. those who have given are thought to be quite conservative for the 2020 numbers. that's why there is that big range priced in, and we have taken in our analysis a middle ground in that. alix: just to wrap it up in

terms of oil price, this is the combined wti net longs and oil price. i wanted to get your take on what is priced in. some are looking at potentially $40 on their base case, and that is with the saudi's making an extension. what do you see? abhishek: in 2020, it has dried out quite a bit towards the end of 2019. we've also seen a lot of dry powder. come up quite significant from the highs in the middle of the year. i think the question is the sentiment, the investor malaise still continues. going into 2020, even if you were to have slightly better markets because of opec cuts, how long does that rally last? year, $60 for the whole $65 for the first half, and coming down by the end of 2020. that's why, even if it comes

froma little bit, perhaps discretionary money, how long does it last in 2020? alix: so do you like energy? colin: i do. i do think there is some upside potential. we seen the markets obsessed with investing in yield, and you get some decent yields from investing in securities. i just don't think there is a long-term growth story there. i think they become yield annuities, if you like. alix: interesting. pande, thankh you very much. colin moore of columbia threadneedle will be sticking with me. we will be all over the saudi aramco ipo pricing. now we want to give you an update on headlines outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with first word news. viviana: chinese officials say they are enclosed contact with their counterparts on u.s. trade negotiations. this is part of a phase i deal. u.s. negotiators saying by

december 15, they are confident they can get an interim agreement. u.s. house speaker nancy pelosi will make a statement on the status of the impeachment inquiry at 9:00 a.m. wall street time. no word yet what she is going to say. meanwhile, democrats are hinting at the impeachment charges they would bring against president donald trump. they could include abuse of power, bribery, and obstruction. the house judiciary committee questioning legal scholars about the historical and constitutional ground for impeachment. you cape prime minister boris johnson is making bold promises. he says if he wins in the first 100 days, he will deliver brexit , a taxcutting budget, and new laws. the opposition party saying the causevative path would failure. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: still with me, colin moore of columbia threadneedle. is there any case for investing in the u.k. right now? colin: i think there is. then really i am a big supporter of investing in the u.s., but i think the valuation gaps have become so large and we are at least heading towards some sort that i don't, think from the recent polls we are heading that way. good or bad, we are going to get .ome sort of definitive outcome alix: is u.k. a specific entity? colin: the u.k. is quite specific. having said that, the u.k. has done so well that the gap the rest of europe has done well, too. alix: how do you hedge political

?isk in the past, it didn't work. most: i tend to think of political risk as a volatility event. in other words, it causes trauma at the time. our analysis shows most of them don't turn into a real change of direction in the market, but you do have to go through a pretty gutwrenching period of volatility. you can dampen that, but the key strategy that you would abuse to dampen that would be dividend income tax strategy. utilities are trading at 23 times earnings. that is not as defensive as it used to be. alix: what is your favorite call right now for 2020? colin: i think you still have to stay with equity simile because of where rates are, and also spreads are quite low. but we are certainly not as bullish on equities as we were. it is a bit of a nonanswer and that we are only marginally overweight equities compared to where we were, but i still think

that is probably the best return. as long as people understand it is maybe 4% to 6% return with volatility, and how you right through that is going to be key. alix: it is like readjusting for a different kind of return. colin: yes, we are predicting growth in the u.s. 1.5%, so as you keep moderating growth, you've got to moderate returns from equities. pes have already excited quite a lot. alix: thank you so much. i really appreciate you spending time with us, colin moore of columbia threadneedle. coming up, the ceo of the brazilian oil giant test the aramco ipo is good for the market. if you have a bloomberg terminal, check out tv . you can check out the charts and graphics, interact with us directly, and check out anything you may have missed. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." a u.s. antitrust investigation into amazon has expanded. investigators are now looking into its massive cloud computing does this. the ftc asking software its unit.about amazon declining to comment. erickson close to resolving a long-running u.s. corruption investigation. bloomberg has learned a deal could come for the swedish telecom equipment maker. the investigation involves potential bribery in six countries. ready to take on other studios. by 2025, they want sales to catch up with the american gaming giants.

playrix has already turned two into billionaires. alix: we turn now to wall street beat. first up, saudi aramco ipo. ceo -- petrobras' ceo talks about that. and what caused rates to spike after september owes -- after september's repo? and a startup with no human traders, the firm quadrupling revenue. joining me now is sarah ponczek. this is part of the aramco story, but it helped to the petrobras ceo yesterday. here's what he had to say about the saudi remco listing. dest saudi remco listing. it is -- saudi aramco listing. >> a low price scenario is good

for global markets to have a company like saudi aramco listed. we don't care about that. alix: yeah right, but ok, competition in that market. comp addition for the banks, too. sarah: friendly competition is always good, right? but you have to think, you have investors that are able to invest globally, looking at which oil companies they want to add to their portfolios. you have to imagine that if they do want to load up potentially on this aramco ipo, maybe they pull fundso have to elsewhere. we will have to see how we see other oil comedies acting the aftermath. alix: and if they wind up going international. also what is interesting to the banks, who really jumped to number one or two or three because of the aramco ipo. sarah: right. because the aramco ipo is so , bloomberg had a great

story out today showing the rankings for em ea. what you see is because hsbc was a large part of this ipo, they are now in the top 10 list, whereas barclays, not involved, has fallen off. alix: interesting. let's get to repo. yesterday, randy quarles was now we areut -- seeing areas of the market going harder and saying we've got to investigate. the financial stability oversight council created in the aftermath of the financial crisis, they are aware of monitoring any potential risks to financial stability. they put out their annual report yesterday and highlighted what we saw in september with that very large spike in the repo market. they want federal agencies to actually diagnose the issue, look into what actually caused this.

in the aftermath, we have heard out.banks come jamie dimon said that j.p. morgan has the means to actually help here. the issue was because of regulations, because of liquidity rules, they couldn't. alix: of course, blaming that and roebuck. randy quarles talked about how they are looking at this in a different way. here's what he had to say. >> there were a complex set of factors that contributed to those events in september. not all of them were related to our regulatory framework. i think we need to examine them. are thearly among them internal liquidity stress tests we run. saying, ok, we had some part in it. our third story is basically about a guy who uses algorithms to make people money. sarah: this is a really fun story. xtxounded what is called

market maker in london in 2015. revenue quadrupled from 2015 to 2018. his net worth is now $700 million. the latest story about describing the space is interesting. they track a group of alumni from the new economic school in alumni, so he is an they take them on a trip to london and have lectures. and it is xtx, actually named after a mathematical formula that is used in the trading algorithm for market-making at the firm. but what they describe are tons of arcade games, a replica of what was used in the apollo 11 mission, and my favorite is a hallway lined with already thousand different led lights that simulate the light cycle of cells, so maybe not something you would except to see in a london financial firm. maybe some thing more along the lines of silicon valley. alix: there are two employees?

sarah: they have many employees, they are just not actual traders and salespeople. they are computer scientists, mathematicians. this really just highlights the moment where if you are a banker, if you are involved in market-making, you really have to get more involved in the electronic side of things. alix: fair point. sarah ponczek, think a lot. in today's off the beaten street, bloomberg has learned the owner of the new york mets is in talks to sell up to 80% stake to billionaire steve cohen. the deal would value the team at about $2.6 billion. cohen would take control of the mets after five years from the principal owner. he already owns a minority stake in the team, and is worth over $9 billion. go yankees. can i say that? coming up, we are watching the lira ahead of the turkish central bank rate decision next week. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time now for trader's take. vincent cignarella, voice of the bloomberg audio squawk, joins me now. you are looking at the lira at of next week's central bunk decision. vincent: according to commerce research, on a seasonally -- according to commerzbank research, on a seasonally the situation it is not good for the currency. we had erdogan forth the central mike to have more meetings. those are implied to cut rates even more. alix: this is bloomberg. ♪ when you move homes, you move more than just yourself.

that's why xfinity has made taking your internet and tv with you a breeze. really? yup. you can transfer your service online in about a minute. you can do that? yeah. and with two-hour service appointment windows, it's all on your schedule. awesome. so while moving may still come with its share of headaches... no kidding. we're doing all we can to make moving simple, easy, awesome. go to xfinity.com/moving to get started. ♪ alix: welcome to "bloomberg thursday on this

comedies them or fifth. -- thursday, december 5. i'm alix steel. >> we think that this would be enough to stave off recession. alix: japan's prime minister shinzo abe announces a stimulus package. > it is an important shift. there has been criticism that the boj is pretty much on the the bojn terms of -- has prima from the course in -- thef what it can do boj has pretty much run the course in terms of what it can do with monetary policy. alix: opec leaders debate whether or not to cut more oil production. iraq has slowed, deepening the cut by 400,000 barrels a day. >> the saudis are really taking a quid pro quo approach. we will consider cutting deeper if the cheaters get in line. alix: in october, cuts added up

to about 1.7 million barrels a day. elizabeth warren threatens to andk up megamerger's in how monopoly legislation to break up the power of big tech and other industries. sen. warren: i am a capitalist. i believe in capitalism, but markets without rules are fixed. part of the rules are that everybody is supposed to pay fair share on taxes so we can reinvest in opportunity for all of our kids, and that's what i to send 12 tax is about for me -- and that's what a two cent wealth tax is about for me. alix: in the markets, you are still seeing equities cling onto a rally, up about 0.3%. apparently, chinese officials in "close contact" with u.s. counterparts, so that trade up to miss him is there. we get the all anticipated

fiscal stimulus out of japan, and markets seem to care not one bit. joining us for the hour, alessio dolonc guess -- for the hour, alessio delongis. it is kind of like when my toddler once chocolate, and then once more. [laughter] in the context of what we've seen the last few months or years, the yen has always in a really narrow range against the dollar. the yen always carries this difference, which is good news may trigger economic appetite, which leads to yen weakness. or if you dig another angle, kind of a regime break, it may have some positive effect. the reality is i can see why on the day, the reaction is, ok,

let me thing about this. alix: ok, fair. joining us as well is neil dwane , allianz global investors global strategist. do you agree? this is the first country to start to make the transition. neil: i do agree. i think it is very well signposted. the ecb will be next trying to support fiscal stimulus in europe. my problem is japan and germany are all about china, and china is not growing. to me, we had 30 years of quantitative easing in government spending in japan, so this isn't going to work either. alessio: it's clear that this is the old debate about where the global economy is, where the extended leverage cycle is. at a certain point, monetary policy loses the effectiveness, and fiscal is the only way to boost money supply. neil: if they spend it properly. alessio: exactly. alix: fair. alessio: but with that said, i

think right now, we are entering 2020 where we are seeing very broad based evidence of the potential bottoming of the cycle, and if that is the case, we can have a meaningful boost to production. if that is the case and you follow historical patterns, you could have potentially and very frontloaded 2020 in terms of positive returns for risk assets. neil: interestingly, i think 100% the average side of that -- 100% the other side of that. at inventories are still record highs around the world. we need to work off those inventories before, and our opinion, you get industrial production picking up. i agree that's where the markets are. the markets have priced 2020 already in our book, so we are very nervous that, as we look into q1 and q2, as political risks in the u.s. rise, that markets get disappointed. alessio: clearly, there is the

element of the leading indicators, and will they be confirmed or not but the actual data. we tend to focus on many of these leading indicators and some of the relationships we have tested over the years. we are seeing that what you said is correct, which is we see the actual economic data are just stabilizing. we are seeing some of the financial conditions, monetary aggregates, and some of the rate of change element into inventory to new order ratios, if you want to focus on the pmi's, for example, we are seeing some evidence of a turnaround. obviously, it remains an open question as to whether that is a sustainable turnaround. historically, when you're coming off the bottom, you tend to see -- thisy violent v-shp very violent v-shaped recovery. this is very similar to what we

saw in 2016. 2016 was in reaction to a much more severe correction into any 14. inay we don't -- correction 2014. today we don't see that, but the point we have been making is to look over the last two years, equities have not outperformed government bonds. they have matched government bonds. neil: you have not been paid for the risk. alessio: exactly. long-year period is a very time to not be paid for two-year risk. wheezing that the bad news is fully priced -- we think that the bad news is fully priced because we are looking at relative performance in risk premia rather than the absolute performance it's of asset classes. neil: a year ago we would have been talking about record highs on the s&p and the 10 year, looking at over 3%. this year, we've got 10 years at 1.7% or something.

the markets are not seeing any of the euphoria or inflation growth they were worried about a year ago. that's why i am happy to be on the others. we had a great run. i think you and i would agree that 2018 none of us saw. in the end, everything went down except bunds and btp's. why be risk on now in the hope that you make it economic consideration? alix: is the distinction that, in your mind, the good news scenario is baked in? and that from your mind, the upside to do is not victim? alessio: yes. alix: how do you know when you are right? [laughter] alix: you both have to make trades for 2020, so what is the thing where you double on this, or we have problems? alessio: i think it is an excellent question. ultimately, you will know with foresight if you are right. the pmi will tell you that. but the heart of your question develop a strategy,

a sequence of thoughts, and stay attached to that. stay consistent with that line of thinking. if you are basing your hypothesis on certain assumptions, your thesis on certain assumptions, big sure the lack of realization of some of those assumptions allows you to change your mind very quickly. you need to be very flexible. neil: i would be looking at the next set of earnings from the u.s. to tell me ceos are investing. when i look at the political risks you run into next year, i can't see any ceo upping investment, capex, or employment. if we get a democrat winner, 2020 one could look quite painful for ceos. so i would be looking to take risk where there isn't crowded risk. everyone loves the u.s., so i would be looking outside the

u.s. everyone owns the u.s. alessio: i very much agree with that. in our analysis, we see that for the first time in over two years, we think that if we are right on this global recovery, it will actually be led by emerging markets, and europe. alix: really interesting. [laughter] alix: different fundamental views, yet somewhat similar investing thesis. we will get to that more in just a second. we will be right back. alessio and neil will be sticking with me. coming up, growth areas for solar energy companies. we have an exclusive interview erner, sunpower corporation ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: the u.s. international trade commission meets today to discuss solar panels. joining us now from washington is tom werner, sunpower ceo. are you going to play a role in these hearings today? tom: yes, i will be testifying at the hearing today. alix: and what is the goal? hearing,e the first sunpower has made significant investment in solar power in america, so we are representing domestic industry. that is really the question today, how is the domestic industry doing since the terrace have been put in place? it is 10 times as big as it was two years ago, so the intended effect is actually working. alix: how, though, is it

working? aren't the duties that are driving up costs for developers and panel installers like yourself, in terms of also industry workers? isn't that a negative? tom: actually, the facts are that the price has come down over the last two years. the industry has actually grown, and importantly, the domestic industry is 10 times the size it was two years ago, which is rather incredible. and it produces 25% of the panels that are consumed in america, up considerably from two years ago, so it is hard to dispute that the tariffs are doing what they were intended to do. alix: what you make of a subsidies rolloff at the end of this year? you might not get as bang for your buck if you are going to install solar panels. how does that i coming to all of this? tom: for sunpower, demand is rather incredible. the distributed generation for solar is better than it has

ever been for america. residential solar demand is the best it has ever been, up 30% year on year. commercial customers are coming to us to make a difference for climate change. so the market is great. costs have continued to come down. we are a preferred energy source driven by economics. alix: does that sustain itself in 2020? tom: i think even more so. what is coming is the cost of storage coming down. when you combine storage with solar come of the things you can do to optimize the use of energy, i think we just begun. i think it is going to be growing faster than ever. alix: as you look at 20/20 and you still have these kind of macro stories, what is the biggest driver for your business? where is the upside going to come from, and where is the natural risk going to come from? tom: you can make a difference for climate change, control your own energy costs, and it is

economic. secondly, storage costs are coming down, so you can make a more resilient grid, a more resilient utility by having solar producing energy where you consume it. the biggest challenge is uncertain policy. policy can change the cost of capital. that can change the growth rate. but i think regardless of the scenario, we are going to see exceptional growth going forward. alix: neil dwane of elian's, you have a quest -- of alley on's cup -- of allianz, you have a question? neil: wife's the consumer is being encouraged, and europe is doing the same to get us to go green, how much r&d do you think we need to get to grid parity so that this just becomes super competitive without the subsidies that are currently required? tom: there are many parts of the world that are subsidy-less where solar is already a part of the grid parity.

itc is still in place in america. japan would be another market. for it to be mainstream, we are not that far away. the cost for solar panels has come down 80% in about five or six years. what we need to get to if the soft costs down, and that is happening. i think we are within a few years. as you add storage to that, it is rather incredible what we can do. so i think the r&d investment that companies like sunpower are making are continuing to pay off, and that is going to happen over the next few years. neil: are you happy that the systems are going to last a lifetime of a house, 20, 25 years? i know a few people are concerned that one cold winter and a lot of snow, and the panels just don't function as well as the use to. here we have experience on our side, and solar systems actually perform better than our models said. we have almost 15 years of residential systems in the

field. we've installed four gigawatts of power plants. we have data, and we know that the systems perform at least at what we've warranted them for, and even better, which is 25 years. i actually think there is an upside here for consumers. alix: rana get out but the recent split within sunpower -- rounding it out with the recent split within sunpower, what is the ability for a company like this to scale up quickly with chinese money, but in the u.s.? tom: the source of the money is important because they bring more than capital. they bring scaling orientation. we've done this before with them. we have a joint venture that went from zero to two gigawatts recently with new technology. so we have proof positive. so i think we can combine the best of all worlds, where we

have american innovation low-cost supply chain from outside of america, and we put those two things itether, and by splitting into two companies, we can create two pure play, focused solar companies that can be leaders in their respective segments. alix: thank you so much for taking the time. tom werner, sunpower ceo. neil, you came out with your 2020 outlook, and a lot of that was the impact on sustainable investing. how do you look at that? neil: many investors now want to do no harm to the global economy going forward. i think one of the lessons of 2019 was the european elections, where the biggest change in the voting was the greens. millennials are going green. they are forcing us all to think about the world very differently, and for us as investors, we can help solve some of those challenges. for all of us, particularly when i am here in america, the

fiduciary responsibility is to deliver the best returns. i think you can go green and still deliver the best returns, and for more of our clients, that is resonating with them. andsio: from a social economic standpoint, it is actually a very interesting develop. this is the content plagued by high use unemployment, perennial low growth, and it should lead to a much more down to the core political movement that is focused on holding onto the things of the past. instead, it is very energizing to see this very aggressive, forward-looking focus on the future, on climate change, on something which actually will pair very nicely with any coordinated effort for fiscal stimulus in europe. that is the one thing all european countries agree on, the need for a true infrastructure driven renovation and renewal of

the continent. neil: and i think what we know with the millennial and the changing shopping habits, as you and i to have discussed many times, they are worried about paper and plastics and things. we are all now so sensitive to it because they have raised our wellness -- raised our awareness. it is a journey. piece by piece, you engage with companies and say, please recycle. don't just use once only plastics. let's try and improve the quality of our life are everybody. alix: neil and alessio are sticking with me. we are going to look at the risks for the financial system and the repo markets, next. as we had to break, a quick check on united airlines. ceo will hand the reins over . that stock up about 1% on the news. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak." tiffany's third-quarter earnings coming up way short. the luxury julie reporting profit that missed -- luxury jeweler reporting profit that missed analyst estimates. tiffany has agreed to be acquired by french luxury conglomerate lvmh for $50.2 billion. united airlines' ceo will hand the reins to the president next year. kirby will take over in may. munoz will become executive chairman. lg and general motors will join forces to produce batteries for electric vehicles. later today, we speak with general motors' ceo here on bloomberg tv. regulators have launched a

full-scale review after the u.s. repo turmoil in september put traders on edge. they've identified the structures of short-term funding markets as a potential risk to the financial system. in september, borrowing weights ed,rd -- borrowing rates soar prompting -- rates soared, prompting the fed to inject cash. alix: talking about repo, is it going to be less regular should for banks, or the fed perennially expanding its balance sheet? what you guys think, base case? neil: i would go with the latter. i don't see people wanting to change regulation rapidly. it is going to get worse into christmas because you have the windowdressing of the balance sheets of american and european banks. the fed, whatever they think, i think the market is perceiving this as qe4. in my opinion, it has boosted

the rally we've seen, and that is probably not what the fed intended. alessio: i would agree. permanentre of a technical solution by the federal reserve is something that can solve this problem very quickly. ultimately, at the end of the you the problem here is cannot have reserves being used both for regulatory purposes and monetary policy tool. a repofed, through operation, allows the banks to source liquidity, to basically deploy high quality paper very flexibly, you could create a semipermanent solution to the problem as you think about regulation may be changing. neil: i agree, and i also think this is telling us there's a huge u.s. dollar shortage in the global economy. the world is trying to take dollars out of wall street, which wall street was struggling to provide. you were mentioning as we came on set what is happening in turkey.

turkey still has two roll $200 billion of u.s. dollar debt. their currency is going down. the rollover risk, they will pay any price to get those dollars. that is the challenge. the fed has become the world's central banker again like it did in 2013. alix: buzz of you are sticking with me. coming up, oil holding gains. opec ministers meeting in vienna. more on what to expect with francisco blanch, bank of america merrill lynch. we are also waiting for saudi aramco ipo pricing. that is front and center for the vienna opec meeting. we get some economic data outcome alike initial jobless claims hitting in just a few moments.

[ electrical buzzing ] [ dramatic music ] ahhhh! -ahhhh!

elliott. you came back! alix: we are taking a look at glencore. shares dropping 4%. a fraud office is opening an investigation into glencore on suspicion of bribery. suspicion of bribery.

that stock down 4%. sfo is now confirming that is happening. we will give you some updates as they wind up crossing. that stock getting hit by 4% in premarket. we are just a couple of seconds away from the latest read on initial jobless claims as well as the trade balance. jobless claims coming in at 200,000, less than expected. positive signs heading into jobs friday. trade balance narrowing a touch, no, narrowing significantly. -$47.2 billion versus september, which was $51 billion. we are seeing a narrowing trade balance, narrower than we had expected. those things percolating in the market. s&p futures up .3%. not a ton of movement. my guests are still with me. when you take a look at the eco-data, are we going to talk

will be lots tomorrow at 8:30? >> i would say the services data is starting to weaken so the manufacturing recession is beginning to percolate through. , i cannotk into 2020 see a cfo raising his investment. that is why i am cautious for next year. >> that was our core view until a couple of months ago. this goes back to the inflection point. if we are right this is the end of another more meaningful soft finding toconsistent support that thesis would be we remain in a goldilocks scenario. i think we feel much better about our view on low-inflation and the data would need to stabilize. we would need to see a rebound in the manufacturing side. i would be curious to see manufacturing work hours in tomorrow's report, because those

led the way down. if other aspects of the jobs report show stabilization, that is what i more focused on. yields move seeing higher as equities stay firm. to take into the trade data, -$47 billion. imports from china were down 5%. 17%,ts to china tumbled the lowest in almost a year. francisco blanche of bank of america merrill lynch is with us as well. do you want to jump in? francisco: i do agree we will have a big investment cycle next year. but gdp is not just. it is also inventory. inventories have gone down a lot, particularly inventories across manufacturing sectors. those related to early-stage goods. if we have a rebound in economic activity, manufacturers will

have to restock, and that will create some upside pressure. all dependent on a china trade deal and a better economic mood. we are constructive on the metals complex. alix: which goes to what you are saying in terms of inventory restocking. the restocking will not be a blowout, or do expect that? francisco: it will not be that unless we get a much better than expected deal which i do not see. it would be enough to create a pretty good run up into man for a lot of the commodities -- in demand for a lot of the commodities. >> when you look into the asian data, singapore this week, south korea last week, global trade is down 10% to 12% year-over-year. they are not telling you there is a heartbeat in the public army, certainly not telling you -- in the global economy, certainly not telling you there is a heartbeat in china. >> it is the tariffs.

you have them off the tweet changes. no ceo will make any decisions when you have this uncertainty about what your tax outlook will be. >> argentina is in frame again. we just keep rolling. >> this week has been a little bit strange. france also getting in. judo, sorry -- sorry.s trudeau, [laughter] >> this goes into what we were talking about earlier. we can all agree we are in an inflection point. , it isre on the upside going to be a somewhat holistic six months to a year phase. no one is calling for a new investment boom. if we are long, and we go to the

downside, then it is about the service sector catching up with the manufacturing sector and doing priest quite rapidly the risk of a recession in some parts of the world. i think it is difficult in the u.s., more likely outside. i think with the challenge here today is to agree on what is priced. priced for the bearish outcome rather than the bullish outcome. -- reason is i think markets we've been in the trade war for three years in the markets have gotten accustomed to the fact that this is the status quo. nobody believes you're going into next week's meeting and we will have a binary resolution, problem solved with china, all bets are off. no. other know we will plant flags and confrontations with japan, with france, with italy, with the eu. it is the new state of the

world. i think that is what we are priced for. malaise, the persistent degree of uncertainty around trade policy is what we are now price for. not surprising, i think the u.s. is overpriced. i think the risk rally we have had in q4 has put all of that in the shop window. my concern is we have not seen china retaliate. they have been very keen to play the victim and we are playing by the rules, we are doing what we can. at some point, particular with the politics around hong kong, they could decide they have to start representing themselves and not allow this interference. i fear we have seen china not really responding yet. you have 72% pork tariffs going into china, which you think about it, you have

african swine flute taking over the country and runaway food inflation. it is a hard measure upon your own people. they retaliated where they could retaliate on trade. they have not retaliated on some of the bills in the states. i do think they have been trying to retaliate. it is just they cannot retaliate. the thing about the trade war is because the u.s. has focused most of the trade tensions on a country who cannot retaliate from a trade standpoint because we have just 100 billion of export, the pain has been small. most of the retaliation has happened on the commodity complex, where it is frankly very difficult to make an impact because these are products that trade up marginal costs. divya: when we took -- alix: when we talk about what is priced in, i am hearing calls for $40 oil.

>> and the commodity complex we have such a massive supply disruption on the oil side and the copper side. supply disruptions have been taking over the commodity complex in 2019. we had opec cut production at the beginning of the year, now they cut production again. barrels,st iranian almost a million barrels in a year and a half. governor norma's disruptions. if it was not for the district -- you have enormous disruptions. year, if we do get the cyclical rebound in demand, if opec maintains the cuts, we still think brent could be at 70 euros a barrel. we need to see that improvement in cyclical activity and the inflection point going higher. >> i would argue we will see weakness in u.s. shale.

that has been the biggest contributor to global oil in the last decade and now looks like it is running out of. francisco: you are seeing slowing growth. clearly a deceleration trend. still a fair amount of oil. also, for the first time in 10 years, we have a large amount of non-opec, non-shale production coming into the market. norwegian oil coming in, the north sea will grow next year. have brazilian oil. you have exxon and hess with a great project in vienna. that will be about supplies. in the americas, we have canada. we have 900 barrels -- we have 900,000 barrels a day in opec non-shale. imf 2020 will have a big impact on a number of fuel markets which will be helpful to the

first half of next year. alix: let's say that happens and we get $70 oil. do see that is positive? you want to play oil? negative it wind up hurting global growth in emerging --kets, is that how will we is that how we will read that story? >> absolutely. the sustainability debate will help or hurt the marginal -- if you're thinking about value, if we want to play cyclical value, you just have to buy oil stocks. they will benefit from the reflation, and if you are right, i would love $70 oil. alessio: i think it would be very healthy to facilitate that rotation from quality into value , from u.s. into emerging, and given the weight of energy, europe as well. it would be a very healthy stabilizer, catalyst for the beginning of that rotation.

and: i am sure saudi aramco their potential pricing agrees with you and would be totally supportive of your call. [laughter] alix: appreciate the conversation and all of you coming. forget to tune into bloomberg "commodities edge" at 1:00 eastern time. we will be covering opec as well as the saudi aramco pricing. i want to recap what happened with glencore. that stop is tumbling and premarket. down by as much as 6%. intraday down 7%. a serious fraud office has opened a pro been to suspicions of bribery for the company. that has been confirmed. theicions of bribery by u.k. fraud office. we do want to give you an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with first word news. nancy pelosi will make

a statement on the status of the impeachment inquiry set for 9:00 new york time. no word on what she is going to say. democrats are hinting against the impeachment charges they would bring against president trump. they could include abuse of power, and obstruction. the house judiciary committee questioning scholars about the constitutional grounds for impeachment. republicans argued the entire process is flawed. chinese officials say they are in close contact with their u.s. counterparts on trade negotiations. the u.s. -- calling for tariffs to be caught. u.s. negotiators say by december 16 they are confident they can get an interim agreement. get ready for the world's biggest ipo. saudi aramco discussing pricing shares at the high end of its marketing range. millionld raise $25.6 and not alibaba into second place. the head of another oil giant praising aramco. >> saudi aramco is a very

efficient company. globalood for the capital markets to have a company like saudi aramco listed. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: i want to recap the eco-data. we have jobless claims 203,000. to trade balance narrowing -$47.2 billion. the trade balance with china moving all over the place. exports dropped 17%. yields moving higher, up three basis points. in the equity market, s&p futures holding onto an eight point gain. any charts wes, used throughout the show, gtv . you can check out any charts we used throughout the show. gtv .

this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak." bloomberg has learned k ring is holding talks with italian ski maker. it is the parent of gucci. it would help keep pace with rival lvmh. the french luxury giant just agreed to by tiffany. a formula one race or is arening a big for -- shares soaring after a magazine said show wanted to purchase a stake. ashton martin is struggling with sluggish sales and lower

earnings. another indicator of how much investors want to profit from clean energy. raised $1 million for solar -- it is the firm's third renewable fund. it is the most the firm has raised for a clean power fun. i am viviana hurtado and that is your bloomberg splash. flash.mberg business we had 20 minutes with you and did not talk about opec. i feel like we need to oblige you. what you expect for the next two days from opec? when opec is debated in their production from the following year, our expectation as they will expand and pretend everything is fine. this is an organization that has lost 7% market share in the last seven years, five of which have

occurred in the last three years. they are losing market share versus the rest of the world, mostly because of disruption i talked about earlier. saudi's will try to push the iraqis, which have been leased compliant,- least try to push them to bring theirs down. russia will push as well. then we will move on. we wind up hearing things like just now a headline, opec plus committee -- iraq talking about 400 barrels -- 400,000 barrels a day. -- will we ignore all that and see if you hit compliance, period? alessio: compliance has been good because the saudi's have

been taking outweigh more barrels than anyone else. there are a few countries misbehaving like iraq, but there were others over compliant. taking a lot of barrels of market. my sense is they want a stable price next year. targeting will be somewhere around 60 plus for next year. to do that, you might have to suck out a few barrels of the market. that is what the cartel needs to manage. that, that, shale, beyond sitting up areas that are running out of tier one inventory and hoping the lack of capital in the u.s. drives out shale a little bit and they can start recover market share. that is their medium-term plan. alix: does is make anyone want to buy the saudi aramco ipo?

everyone is like i do not want to talk about it. [laughter] >> we were offered a meeting that they pulled when they pulled the international roadshow. stop for thebig saudi arabians -- it is very big stock for the saudi arabians. you can by high-profile oil without having to take the risk of emerging market stocks. alix: agreed. we have to leave it there. thanks. great to catch up with all of you. thank you very much. coming up, rh has been in uptrend since june. we talk about traits coming up next in today's domestically speaking. jumping into your car, do not lose touch with us. you can tune into bloomberg radio heard across the u.s. on sirius xm jenna 119 and the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg -- on sirius

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alix: time for technically speaking. bill maloney, chartered market technician and the voice of bloomberg's equity squad joins me now. check out bill on the bloomberg. .n squa usually as go transports go the dow. how go transports? bill: you want to see the transports right out and they have not. it has been a long-term trading range going down to january. you are still below this 2018 peak. this uptrend is broken. we want to see the transports do well for the rally to continue. technologies reported after the bell. e.ey did beat on revenu bill: they did beat on revenue. this is one of those ipa blowups but maybe it is hitting a bottom

-- ipo blowups but maybe it is hitting a bottom. he might have support around 1920 the lows. look for resistance at the 50 day at -- alix: are h also reported after the bell. what are you seeing? bill: rh is up in the premarket. 50 day is in support the whole way up. looks like it will open up in a record. around 210, may resistance around 214. i appreciateloney, you catching up with us. chris up on "the open," harvey, wells fargo head of global strategy. this is bloomberg. ♪ here, it all starts with a simple...

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jonathan: coming up, the never-ending trade story. china remains in close contact with u.s. officials. big tech coming into sharper focus in washington. amazon facing more scrutiny. sallyn the folk -- the ipo -- the saudi ipo the biggest ever. we snapped the losing streak yesterday. equities advanced this morning, up .33% on the s&p 500. treasury yields with a lift, up three basis points to 1.81 on the u.s. 10 year. we begin the program with house speaker nancy pelosi said to give an update on the impeachment proceedings. kevin cirilli said to give us an update on the latest. walk us through what we can expect. kevin: in just a couple of minutes, we are