tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg December 5, 2019 6:00pm-8:00pm EST
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paul: good morning, i'm paul allen in sydney. we are under an hour away from the market open in japan and south korea. to "bloomberge daybreak: asia." paul: our top stories this friday, aramco raises $25 billion and is valued at 1.7 trillion dollars. ipo pricing comes as opec agrees to formalize output restrictions.
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nancy pelosi turns a screw on president trump. the impeachment process is on the fast track and about may come before christmas. shery: blackstone says geopolitical tensions remain the biggest threat as we head into 2020. we hear from steve schwarzman this hour. is ready markets have open for trade. what are you seeing? steady, butholding still on course for a more than adding moreop after pressure to the earnings outlook. totralian companies expected see the worst profit growth in 2020 where southeast asia is forecast to come out on top, followed by india, even in the face of expansion. nikkei futures are pointing ther after japan joined
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physical spinning bandwagon. today will get it gauge on household spending as well as wages. as were waiting on news from opec as promised by the saudi oil minister after talks didn't concrete, still sticking about $58 a barrel this morning. oil: let's get more on the and the opec talks. manyphie just suggested, hours of talks today and no press conference and no real comment to speak of. reading between the lines, what does this mean? >> the drama will certainly continue into tomorrow. basically they have agreed in principle on five -- 500,000 barrels a day cut. it seems like one of the main sticking points was from iraq and angola. but we have to think about what
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the cut even means. it basically could be quite symbolic, as sophie was saying, we are seeing wti under pressure. it basically formalizes what the group has already been doing for most of the year. saudi arabia has been cutting well below their output target. that's why you're seeing the market really not react to the deal. they say the increase in actuality isn't going to be taking barrels off the market as the traders are looking for. of whatome indication was discussed, there is no deal tonight but tomorrow we have an entire cartel plus allies including russia back at the table and we will hear what they have to say then. there seems to have been a lot more emphasis on compliance. why? the kingdom's getting frustrated because they were the one bearing the brunt of the
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efforts to jack up prices. basically the kingdom is in for a strategy of a little bit of quid pro quo. we are willing to maintain our cuts, but as long as the others get in line. they have been cutting so far below their quota they can potentially use it as a threat to take back market share. shery: so what should we be watching out for tomorrow with the opec meeting? annmarie: now that we have this idea that they want to cut by 500,000 barrels a day, we just don't know how it's going to be divided. that is likely what the negotiations are about today. 500 thousand barrels between opec and its allies. we need to know how it is distributed and that will be the key thing to watch today and the key thing for the market. shery: let's continue our discussion on oil.
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fernando, great to have you. annmarie was just telling us how oil prices are being pressured at the moment because there is doubt over what it would even mean even if they get an agreement. how symbolic or real are these cuts? fernando: real issue is compliance. there's aramco ipo, whole incentive for saudi arabia not to comply above and beyond what they have already agreed to. now they have outside investors looking for them to produce more so they can get the yield promised on the ipo. sometime,e time -- their incentivize to cheat on this so they can keep paying their bills. so it's a difficult situation for opec. that's why we think opec has deteriorated over the past couple of years and one saudi is
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more in line with russia today because they have a closer fiscal balance than some of the other members of opec. shery: we had the other big news, the pricing of saudi aramco. how is that ipo affecting negotiations? fernando: i think it is a big deal. when you do an ipo for a company with the biggest reserves evolve the oil majors in the world, you run the risk of stranded assets. over 100 years of reserve like. what are you going to do, accelerate production? if you cut back production to keep oil prices up, you are harming your investors. so it's a big dichotomy between the saudi kingdom and its outside investors. the ipo has just exacerbated that problem. still thei arabia major investor in saudi aramco. over time they are incentivize to grow in production and
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pushing out some of the weaker opec producers. paul: in terms of production cuts come as you were explaining there, saudi arabia obviously has a powerful incentive now in terms of the aramco ipo to make sure that everybody plays by the rules when it comes to compliance. if you look at a country like iraq which has been dragging the chain on this, it's a pork country beset by a lot of problems. fernando: the difficulty is that -- and aramco problem as well. we've seen industrial production slowing down and oil demand slowing down. at the end of the day we are always a little bit selfish and even though you sympathize with iraq's problems, think saudi arabia is eventually going to say we've cut as far as we can. we have our own issues with fiscal balance.
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need to cover our own physical demands and we can't keep subsidizing altogether opec countries. obviously we've had issues in other countries like venezuela, libya, etc. at that have their own issues around sanctions, but saudi arabia can only bear so much of the brunt out of it. i think we are really seeing the end of it. the big question remains what will u.s. shale to? if there are big cutbacks, they could take some of that market share away. i think saudi is at their wits end and they don't have much sympathy left for iraq and other countries in opec plus. fernando, thanks so much for joining us. you can turn to your bloomberg terminal for more on this to get commentary and analysis from bloomberg's expert editors. have more analysis on opec and the aramco ipo throughout the day.
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by j.p. morgan's stock -- scott dowling later in the show. jessica: house speaker nancy pelosi is demanding a fast vote to impeach president trump with it proceeding before the christmas holiday. she said he must be held accountable for his profound violation of public trust, saying the president has abused his power for personal benefit. president trump says democrats have no impeachment case. the u.s. state department evidence is emerging that more than 1000 people may have been killed government forces during recent protests in iran. protests erupted after gas prices were raised. amnesty international says at least 200 people have died, but the u.s. puts the total far higher. it also says at least 7000 have been arrested. i ran did acknowledge for the
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first time this week that it security forces have killed protesters. paris andce flared in across france as trade unions went on strike in protest of plans for print -- for pension reforms. out.ge collectors walked the main union group says 1.5 billion people took action across the country. it's the biggest protest against president since he took office 2.5 years ago. anotherg is set for mass protest march on sunday. hadr the civil rights group been given approval from the police took for -- for a planned demonstration. is the first on the group has one such a permit since july 21. the march will head toward hong kong's main business district and take place one day before the protests reach the six month
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mark. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. ahead, steve schwarzman says geopolitical risks are the biggest challenge for global economies. that interview is coming up. paul: next, farm purchases remain an issue in u.s.-china trade negotiations. there is investor optimism for delay in tariffs. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the value of china's purchases of u.s. farm produce. sean taylor is cio and head of emerging-market equities at ews. great to have you with us. do you still see room for upside across markets if we do in fact see this phase one trade deal? do, we are looking for a trade deal in the first quarter, a watered-down deal, but what we are really looking for is for aligned to be drawn in the sand. we think that will get the confidence going again in markets on china in the business sector and the headwind of having that trade tariff going on will have gone away. obviously we are getting near the ebb of december and and flow of news on this makes markets quite volatile. ine of the trade barometers
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terms of stocks related to trade show there's a 30%-70% chance of it happening. so the market thinks is a good chance of it happening. once it does happen, economic data and earnings will improve. as youvolatility, mentioned, is there, but it seems to be on the retreat especially when it comes to those emerging markets. volatilityg em coming down. we've seen emerging markets slightly on their own at this point, but there doesn't seem to be this animal spirit across markets. will the trade deal is that? what is needed here, because were seeing pretty easy monetary policy out there. sean: that's right. what we need to see is the growth really coming through. we need to see evidence of
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earnings. we've had earnings downgrades across emerging markets this year. it's been very biased toward markets like south korea and the tech sector. the currency has been a little weaker and that hurts our earnings. so we need to see continued stabilization of the manufacturing pmi's. we need to see some sort of trade deal done and then we could be helped by the u.s. dollar that is weaker. we got 9% earnings forecast for emerging markets next year, 10% return. it's reasonably good if the earnings hold. you've got one of the more bearish forecasts on china growth that i've seen. i think you've got 5.8%. to that end, do you see more easing coming in china? we have a chart on the bloomberg terminal that shows the pboc has been gradually cutting those lending rates. do you see more support coming as well, and if so, when is the
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next opportunity? obviously we've got to look at the work conference very carefully. there's a lot of liquidity injected in the market over the last six weeks, and that is positive. we don't see any formal interest rates being cut but we've got a low number and we don't think that's bad. we are thinking lower china growth with higher quality is better for earnings. the two main drivers of growth in the past, infrastructure and property, will not be used in the future. the -- if there is infrastructure spent, it will be on the environmental side. on the property side, you have the situation hong kong and other places where there is a gap in quality of property. i think china will not use property as a policy tool, and they have made that quite clear in statements.
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paul: you also see that fixed income is going to be lower for longer. what is your strategy in that space? prefert the moment we terms in the u.s.. for european, we prefer investment rate. the cost of hedging is high versus the u.s.. areas that's getting more and more attention is asia. in the past, people look to fixed income and set up a look at the u.s., europe, and emerging markets, and asia was just a small part of that. investment grade is getting a good bid from asian investors. volatile. it less that's one area we see expanding. it gives you slightly higher
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return than developed markets, but it is safer than emerging markets. shery: what does it mean for seeing more central banks across asia on hold? we had the surprise decision by india not to cut. the rba holding steady and the be ok, despite low inflation, not acting. sean: we are not so worried about that. we have a forecast for they had to be on hold through 2020. i don't think interest rates need to be cut as long as there is liquidity in the market. need to do other things in korea to get growth going on the fiscal side. a 20 basis point cut would not necessarily do that. india looking for more privatization. those are the sort of areas that we prefer to see than just straight interest rate cuts.
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data bye have seen bloomberg that south korean stocks are expected to see the most profit growth in asia next year. where are you seeing the opportunities? that's because they fail a lot this year. so we had korean earnings down, particularly in the technology and semiconductor area. it's going to be in technology. that -- mystic earnings are still under pressure paul: paul:. head oflor emerging-market equities at dws. thanks for joining us. still to come, a pop trump impeachment inquiry before christmas. we'll have the latest on the investigation, next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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paul: this is daybreak asia. shery: speaker nancy pelosi stepping up the timetable for impeaching president trump, putting the house and motioned toward a historic vote. >> the president leaves us no choice but to act because he is trying to correct -- corrupt once again the election for his own benefit. the president has engaged in abuse of power, undermining our national security jeopardizing the integrity of our elections. shery: graig sullivan is standing by. she has now directed the drafting of the articles of impeachment. what does this process entail? seen how speaker nancy pelosi say that she has directed the house to move forward in drafting these articles of impeachment, in many ways which was not a surprise. for weeks, democrats have been holding hearings with witnesses, constitutional scholars, trying
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to build their case. now they appear to be moving forward on what is essentially an indictment or charge of the president. we expect there will be at least three articles of impeachment. they will probably send her around obstruction of congress, bribery, and abuse of power. also ate outthey the timeline for what comes immediately next. we know the house judiciary committee will vote and it's possible the committee could begin debating or even voting on them by weeks in. once i do vote on them, it gets sent to the house. paul: to what degree is all of this symbolic? once it arrives in the senate, it doesn't have much of a chance of conviction. takes it up,ouse it's likely they will impeach the president, and that would happen before years in. support for president trump has
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remained strong and it does appear that the senate is not an imposition to convict him at this time. we haven't seen many republican defections and even if there were, it's unlikely it would be near the number they need to actually remove president trump from office. for his part, he has remained defiant and urged a fast process. whether that is before the christmas holiday and sending it to the senate for a january trial remains unclear. what is that however it winds up, is likely to be a campaign issue with the upcoming presidential campaign next year. shery: what are democrats focusing on when it comes to the impeachment process? they also seem to be taken away some of the results from the mueller investigation as well. onthere has been discussion whether to draw in parts of the mueller investigation. democrats have been focusing more on trump's interactions with ukraine.
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to get ukrainian readership to investigate his political rival, joe biden and his son hunter and his business dealings in ukraine. a lot of the focus will be around ukraine. aboutere has been talk whether or not to draw in the mueller report. a lot of that is still unclear. paul: graig sullivan, thanks for joining us. let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. hsbc underwritings pressure. and fitchn downgraded will keep an i on the lender for further potential downgrades. outlook from stable to negative. shery: morgan stanley tesla soar. could's -- could
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hit $500,tock may raising the optimistic scenario from a target of $440. this is assuming tesla will be able to sell 100,000 trucks by 20 24 and delivered twice that number in china. paul: aston martin is surging to a sales slump on reports of a bid for the marquee. shares jumped more than 10% and a report that aston martin is grappling with lower earnings pending launch of its first suv next year. still to come, the end of a strike at general motors is likely to inflate the payrolls figure. will update you on the news of the day. stay with us.
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paul: we've got some breaking news for you out of japan. household spending numbers thus hitting the terminal right now. a decline for the month of october 25.1%, or than the expected number. a decline of 3.2% had been expected, and huge reversal from the 9.5% increase that was seen in september. a few reasons for this chief , due toem the sales tax a lot of front loading. a big contraction, 5.1% in household spending on the year in the month of october. there was also a typhoon during
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that period, so a double whammy there. cash earnings were upbeat, rising .5% from the month of october, much better than the survey of an increase of .2%. for more on this, let's bring in managing assets editor. chris, a huge decline in household spending, that was expected, but it was somewhat larger than expected as well. is it all sales tax and typhoon, or is there something else going on? chris: i think that's pretty much it. it's odd that japanese officials somehow thought that this time would be different. every single time, going back to the 1980's, that japan imposes or raises its sales tax, we see this big run-up in spending before the sales tax hike kicks in, and then we see a big contraction thereafter.
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almost always it's a bigger distortion than even the private sector economists anticipate. it kind of makes sense, everybody's going to stock up right before everything gets more expensive. i have to say, i moved here 10 years ago and the sales tax at that time was only about 5%. you didn't really notice the tax add-on from the products you buy, but the other day, when i bought something, i thought, that final sales price is a little higher than i expected. then i realize, we've got a 10% tax rate now. so we are seeing this big decline in spending. that's going to probably tank the economy this quarter. everybody anticipates a contraction. it underscores fine the administration yesterday came out with the big stimulus package to try to ensure that at least there isn't a full-blown recession. shery: i feel you on the sales
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tax hike. i left japan just around 2014 was when they last raised the tax. $239 billion, this chart already showing japan's debt to gdp, the largest among the developed world. were talking 200 plus percent ratio, so why are they not more concerned? the thing is, again, this is something that has changed over time. five years ago, six years ago, people still would be talking about japan's debt level is so high, at some point there's going to be a crisis. it was always about five years away, if you talk with the ratings companies, you talk with people in the bond market, there's going to be a big reckoning. at some point, people just
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aren't going to be willing to debt,w yielding japanese given the debt to gdp ratio. but the thing is, the bank of japan has gobbled up more than 40% of the entire bond market. we've had yields in negative territory. so worries about the dead have kind of gone away. they certainly haven't gone away at the ministry of finance. those guys are absolutely focused on trying to narrow the deficit and bring down the debt to gdp ratio. those are the guys, and it is mostly guys, who have persuaded lawmakers to pass this sales tax hike. there isbroadly, increasing recognition among japanese politicians that fiscal stimulus is really the only tool left to get the economy going. that explains this package that
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came out yesterday, and the key thing to watch going forward is, on an ongoing basis in the annual budget, is there going to be a greater appetite toward fiscal spending? shery: chris, thank you. household spending taking a big hit from that sales tax hike. it would be the biggest drop since 2016, and we have breaking on uber as well. uber technology is releasing its long-awaited review in response to public safety concerns, saying they found more than 3000 allegations of sexual assault involving drivers or passengers on its platform in the united states alone last year. they released this 84 page safety report. they were trying to quantify the theonduct and argue that service is than alternatives.
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they are saying about 50 people have died in uber collisions annually for the past two years, which is a rate about half the national average for car for tallies, according to uber. this report finding more than 3000 allegations of sexual assault in the u.s. alone last year. let's get a quick check of the markets with sophie in hong kong. what are you seeing? frome: here's a snapshot singapore. little change after closing 1% higher on thursday. household spending falling for the first time in 11 months in october as the sales tax hike took effect. let's check in with australia, sydney shares eking out slight gains. adding to thursday's advance while aussie bonds are headed low for second session after a
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short rise on thursday. the aussie dollar is now steady after falling the most in two weeks. the greenback heads for its worst week since june ahead of friday's u.s. jobs report. and the flushed out opec deal seems to be mostly symbolic. trading slightly lower after volatile session that some prices hit a high lysine in september before reversing those gains. the market not too impressed by output quotas.o wti is set for the best week since september. paul: let's get more on the oil jessicad opec with summers. jessica: it was a big day for the oil market. opec has reach a deal on oil adduction that leaves level slightly changed.
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ministers agreed to deepen the existing output target by 500,000 barrels a day, essentially formalizing restrictions that have been in place for most of the year. crucial details have yet to emerge, and the decision must be group,d by the wider opec plus. saudi aramco has successfully launched the world's biggest initial public offering. after$25.6 billion pricing shares at the top of the marketed range. the mammothes energy company at $1.7 trillion. that is the love the kingdom's original post of $2 trillion. it was a plan to wean the saudi economy off fossil fuels. indian markets felt after the reserve bank lowered its full-year forecast for growth and unexpectedly kept interest rates on hold. it was the fifth time you share
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the r.b.i. cut its outlook. the comments had been expected to six consecutive rate cut. policymakers cited rising inflation for the decision to hold. they also lowered growth forecast of 5% from october's 6.1%. estrella has issued emergency warnings of are raging across new south wales and the queensland border. several rural communities on the south coast are being told it's too late to expect rescue teams. the air quality in sydney is rated hazardous with northern suburbs ranked hazardous. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm jessica summers. this is bloomberg. paul: thanks, jessica. steve schwarzman is not afraid
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of recession. says it is geopolitical disruption that he sees as the biggest risk to global markets. he spoke to bloomberg and discussed what it would take to end the trade war. i think what it takes is the gradual opening of china. we were just talking about china, and their adoption of more traditional types of practices that would be in the developed world. i think they recognize that over time, that needs to happen and it would be good for them. but it represents major change from the way china has been negotiationshese have not been the easiest because you are asking someone to adopt different types of approaches that are more common in the developed world.
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i don't think china will ever amend a lot of the fundamental tenets but the game is to makes ae in away that lot more sense as china becomes wealthier. i know you said you said you're not afraid of an imminent recession, but there are shocks that could happen. is trade the one you watch, or is there something else you are keeping your eye on? >> there are all kinds of unusual things that happen in the world. is thatix cents geopolitical issues are the great unknown which could have very substantial consequences and are out-of-the-box with what happens with iran. did they become militarily aggressive, interfere with the
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supply of oil to the rest of the world from the middle east? like northissues there.and what happens you've got issues with china and numerous kinds of levels. you never know which one of these things, let alone other things, are going to happen. the world has become much more integrated for a lot of different reasons, including the internet, where people's behavior, which used to be not correlated, all of a sudden people around the world start acting in the same way. so the conventional economic cycle over production of certain types of goods that lead to economic slowdowns and so forth doesn't appear to be what is .eally the risk, to me
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at the moment, what happens with interest rates which are now unnatural,t's almost and what happens if they reverse, if we get some inflation? a little inflation would be fine for most of the world, but if that goes up a lot, there are always risks to economies. at the moment, the low interest rates have stimulated the world enough that it just seems to be rolling along. in the united states, for example, lower income workers for the first time are getting much bigger increases. somewhere around 4%. as they get more money, 70% of the spending of america, consumers spend more. the more they spend, the more the economy keeps growing.
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so it's not a conventional cycle, but i don't see it falling off a cliff. there.steve schwarzman so much spending dictated largely by the health of the job market. later friday we will have the latest payrolls in the u.s. seen sort of mixed numbers this week, especially when it comes to abp numbers, really disappointing. then jobless claims also falling to the lowest in seven months or so. so what do we pay attention to? a greater signal from jobless claims and the employment component which approved in the last couple of months. it's not a stronger signal because first of all, it does workers.nt for gm
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they were on strike and they came back. adp service does not account for striking workers. payroll does. so tomorrow we will see strong numbers, just because it will be inflated by people coming back into the labor force from gm strikes. so we expect a strong number because the economy is not doing that badly. it is still ok. there has been a significant slowdown, but economic growth is still running quite strongly. shery: this chart on the bloomberg showing u.s. economic surprise index is now rolling over and could join europe in the negative, disappointment side of things. you mentioned nonmanufacturing employment numbers being good, but the overall nonmanufacturing number still eased significantly. but this is tell us about where
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the economy is heading? >> i would just push back a little bit on that and say that overall, the number was a bit weaker. it's the composite number that takes into account for different components. if you dig into the details and go deeper and look at it, employment was better and new orders was better. so it's a forward-looking indicator. what went wrong was the business sentiment in the business activity index, which is sometimes very volatile. i try to look at more activity data oriented stuff. paul: you've been digging into the data. it's a pretty safe bet that the fed has as well. if we get that strong read, combined with the other things you are talking about, it pretty much puts the fed on the sidelines in 2020, wouldn't it? >> it has raised the bar so high
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for any sort of action in the near term. i would be very surprised to see a number that could move the needle for the fed. unless we see a disastrous number tomorrow, i think the fed will just stay on hold. they are really looking at the broader picture. it is not at a critical slowdown. the economy is not going into a recession anytime soon. consumers continue to drive economic growth and it is decent enough for the fed to stay afloat. paul: 2020 is also an election year. what degree will that be a political pressure test for the fed? >> the fed has been under political pressure for tried some time, given all the tweets and comments and everything. it is ok for the fed to tighten they already started
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tightening policy and they continue tightening throughout the election so it is not unprecedented. i think in this case they will probably continue to be on hold, just because economic conditions are telling them to do so. inflation is nowhere near where they wanted to be. economists taking it will be on hold for the next two years. the u.s. be joined by national economic council director larry kudlow at 10:30 p.m. hong kong, that's 9:30 a.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪
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, the only female leader of a major chinese internet company. he discussed how trip.com has boosted female leadership. let's get over to beijing with selina wang. tell us about the interview. leadingis one of the figures in china's tech space, the only female ceo of a major internet company in china. i discussed with her how companies in china should boost female leadership and employment. trip.com has but some of the trends in china's tech industry. than one third of their executives are women. a human rights watch found random sexism in china's tech industry, citing well-known tech companies that have put out sexist employment ads. jane has been very outspoken about her efforts to improve equality in china's technology industry. i started by asking her what were some of the personal challenges she faced in her rise to the top.
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take a listen here. the only way a ceo in a major internet company, i feel sometimes it is challenging because people are not used to a female ceo in this industry. to give you an example, when i first joined, we went to japan wasour chairman, everyone showing lots of respect to him. . was number three in rank they thought i was the secretary. everyone turned around and left without even shaking hands with me. it's kind of unusual for a female to take such an important role. however, wherever there is a challenge, there is an opportunity. selina: how do you think the
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challenges you faced for for women today in china? female youngd more workers are coming to take on more and more responsibility. when a female is pregnant, we give them a taxi for free. when they come back from delivering, we offer flexible working hours. we give baby is young, be. an education more and more females are getting their advanced degree. a lot of them are struggling to decide whether to have career first are children first our family first. that've adopted a policy if our female workers try to get their eggs frozen, we will pay for it.
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selina: you are the only company in china that has that policy. the policy has been very controversial. critics say it may encourage women to go through an emergency -- a procedure that doesn't guarantee you can have a child later in life. jane: i think it is always good to have an option. females are different from males in a sense that there are logical clock only gives them a certain period that they can produce a baby. a lot of females are so busy and don't have enough time to consider having a family. 35-40,ey pass the age of it's very difficult for them to have kids. so having this flexibility when they are young and healthy to have their eggs frozen if they choose to gives them the flexibility when they are ready to have children.
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selina: how popular has that been? it.: our employees love almost every female worker i ofe talked to is in favor the policy. it's always good to have an option. if you like it, you can use it, you can take advantage of that policy. but if you do not like it, you don't have to take that policy. selina: silicon valley has gone through a big reckoning in terms of gender equality. whether that has changed anything is in question. in china, has there been any sort of big movement to bring greater awareness to this issue? when you talk to your counterparts, is this something they are focused on? jane: everything takes time. , more than 50%
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of the workers are females. more than 40% of middle managers are females, and more than one third of executives are female. these numbers are much better than companies in the silicon valley. they can take the leadership in supporting female workers in the high-tech industry. in addition to big freezing and other gender equality issues, we talked about rebanding -- rebranding as it tries to boost international expansion. she said she is bullish on their growth in acquiring new companies. shery: thank you, selina wang. markets open in tokyo and seoul at the top of the hour. let's turn to sophie for what to watch. sophie: graham data we got this
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morning, here's a snapshot. the biggest drop since 2016 due in part to extreme weather keeping people at home and a sales tax hike tightening purse strings. a quick check on movers in sydney. i want to highlight western areas, climbing as much as 4.4%. expecting operations to resume at eight nickel mine in western australia. whitehaven sliding after cutting downwardast, prompting revisions. following the most in 14 weeks after the company said it found some national irregularities in its north american business. calm, will talk opec and aramco's ipo.
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fires continue on. indian markets are under pressure as a bank cut its forecast and held rates steady. is ending for the year it began with a shock. > let's go straight to market action. >> in tokyo we're seeing stocks adding .4 ofground 1%. despite ugly household spending indicated the biggest drop in 2016 in october after the ales hike took effect, we didn't see any reaction for the yen the greenback s falters. one rs watching boj in the to 10-year zone. -- edging hi of of 1%. korean companies are looking to outperformance s in 2020 while australia is set
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be the laggard in that space. build on ng shares thursday's gain led higher by resource players after the in two weeks sparked by retail sales but the a rency is set to snap four-week drop. let's check in on oil prices this morning. wti, just heading slightly lower here after a olatile session with markets not too impressed by what's being seen as a symbolic deal opec. boston, this morning, nudging slightly higher trading at $63.39 per barrel, paul. news let's check in on the with jessica summers. >> thanks, paul. speaker nancy pelosi is demanding a fast vote to mpeached president trump with the process potentially concluding before the christmas holiday. hold him ongress must accountable for what she called
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his profound violation of public were saying the facts uncontested and that the president has abused his power benefit.onal president trump says the democrats "have no impeachment case." >> the u.s. state department says evidence is emerging that a thousand people may have been killed by government inces during recent protests iran. protests erupted after gasoline prices were raised. amnesty international says at least 200 people have died but he u.s. puts the total far higher and also says at least 7,000 have been arrested. for the acknowledge first time this week that its killed forces had protestors. >> and violence flared in paris nd across france as trade unions went on strike in protest at plans for pension reform. sectors such as the metro and nuclear plants as collectors age
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walked out. he main cgt union group said 1.5 million people took action across the country. protests the biggest against president macron since took office 2 1/2 years ago. mass re will be another protest march on sunday after the civil rights group says it's been given approval from the police for the planned demonstration. t's the first time the group has won such a permit since july 21. hong rch will head toward kong's main district in central. it will take one place before reach a six-month mark. global news 24 hours a day, tictoc by on bloomberg. 'm jessica summers, this is bloomberg. >> opec has reached a deal on oil production that leaves levels barely changed in
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the market forecast. ministers agreed to deepen the existing outputs by a per day barrels formalizing the extra supply restrictiones that have been in of the year.t details have yet to emerge and the decision must be ratified by a wider group. paul? paul: thanks, sheri. joining us now from singapore is an insides founder. for joining us. so we're going to have some deeper cuts, half a million a day but i guess the critical question is who will bulk of the responsibility here? >> good morning, paul. indeed. will be in theil details and the market as we awaiting the ill formal decision. a deepening ounce of the cuts by half a million barrels per day but how exactly to be distributed?
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nd more importantly, is it simply a regular rising of the current cuts which are already eeper than what had been pledged. those are some of the things the market will be scrutinizing once formal decision is out. perhaps expected later today. >> of course, there are a couple of opec members who have been discussing, who continue to drag he chain when it comes to production cuts s. there can do that the cartel to get countries like iraq into line? >> indeed. -- it seems like that's major element of focus in these talks and probably that's drag on and talks become a bit difficult. what's going to be interesting if saudi arabia, which has been shouldering much more cuts it had pledged the last time, whether it manages to lay off some of those cuts,
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essentially distribute them and who are lagging, especially nigeria and iraq, to comply. overproducing. i think that's where the focus with regards ally to the aramco deal. nvestors will be scrutinizing this. saudi arabia may end up cutting more than it needs to every time a cut.s >> will 500,000 barrels make a difference? the question is going to be, 500,000 barrels what's already been taken out of the opec was e or less, supposed to cut about 800,000 barrels per day starting january 2019 of this year and it's already cut by 1.2. 400,000 barrels per day of that additional cut is already factored in. is, are they n actually going to reduce supply, 500,000supply by another
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capacity or are they simply -- they will continue to produce ore or less what they are producing now. it's important, actually, that expectationause the is that the demand for opec oil, especially in the first half of year, will be close to one million barrels per day less than what they are bumping now. that's what the market was looking for opec to do so it disappointed.t >> is there a danger of overtightening the market specially if you do get that china-u.s. trade deal? yeah, i think that's probably a factor when opec and nonopec going to be debating what to do, because the remains a or still major unknown. we have had lots of twists and u.s.-china trade deal, trade war saga. do manage to clinch a deal and a lot of tariffs start removed we could see an
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acceleration in global oil growth which means opec will have to be ready to ease should that happen. i think it's real, probably to careful they need to be and probably decide to meet more regularly, more frequently, in you know, keep more in touch with what's happening in the market. opec talks become the opec plus talks in vienna of the , as the arrival russian president going to dynamic?he >> russia has been dovish for months right up going into this meeting, but they have agenda ught a separate of their own. they want their production not included, which will make them seem a little more butliant with their quarter overall i think going forward, not just this meeting, russia is of becoming a
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counterbalance, a dovish counter of the more hawkish members in opec so i think hat's the future we have to be ready for. >> i also just want to get your ipo.s on the aramco of course, having an improving and stable oil price is critical that. success of out?o you see that playing >> the scaling back, the dramatic scaling back of the managed to make it successful. some matrix, they are managing to get a $1.7 valuation, below the $2 trillion the prince wanted but bad.too i do think, however, an international offering looks point in te at this time. imply because of the way they conducted this one, in a very limited manner. will be paying
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close attention to how saudi role as the s its de facto leader of opec. prices ary and prop up little bit more in order for its shares to look good. think there will be a lot of scrutiny on that as well as on, you know, does saudi arabia give said rificing, as i earlier, it's been cutting back much more than it needed to. they are going to even that out a little bit. that will go down well with the investors. >> always great having you on. the van -- vandana hari. now, let's get a quick check markets. >> stock movers in japan, biogen presented from the ongoing study for their at a conference
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in san diego. t expects that alzheimer's therapy could secure approval from the f.d.a. should that recent trial be taken on-board. i also want to highlight steelmaker gse rising as much as 4.2% to a july 23 nigh tokyo. then on the steel sector, after unveiledese government its stimulus package. uber under to come, scrutiny after it releases a safety report on sexual assault allegations. have the details next. this is bloomberg. t. this is bloomberg.
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bloomberg has been looking at this report. of course, we've been waiting this review given all of the public safety concerns we've had uber in london, ould this lead to some regulatory pushback from the u.s.? >> that's a good question. you know, the results of this report are going while.looked at for a it's been a two-year effort and t reviewed all of the trips that uber made which was one billion in the united states and in the united states in 2017-2018. you know, rates 235 instances of rape and 280 you tempted rape, and, know, there were other categories that they looked at as well. what verity of it and occurs afterwards will yet to be seen but this was a voluntary pledged to do,
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and, you know, unlike, you know, company, de sharing lyft, which has not done a disclosed this voluntarily. that point, 3,000 incidents seems like an awful lot. traditional taxi industry, do we have any data there? >> the taxi industry does not data like this nor do other different public systems.ation new york does collect some on their public transportation but comparisons are difficult. in here because of the nature of the different things that they went through. that's important to you a look at it's kind of, know, what this means going forward, like you said. paul: all right.
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fires raging sh across new south wales and the queensland border. have been toldes it's too late to expect rescue teams and sydney's air quality rated as hazardous. movesh, we're seeing some related to those bush fires. western areas had an operation n western australia that was temporarily halted on a bush fire believed to have started from a lightning strike but expected toions are resume.
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infrastructure assets having sustained damage. it was rated neutral. on the other side, we're seeing as it aven falling outputs.coal 7%, earnings % and plunge 85%. thanks, sophie. bloomberg has been tracking all of. us a sense of just how bad the air is out there right now? in comparison, it's actually -- [inaudible] looking a nt, it is little bit clearer today. yesterday, i was sitting out by and you could ge see the ash floating around in the air. just really this toxic, oppressive thing. common ow this is a occurrence when it comes to bush
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fires in australia, right? so how does it compare to years?s >> i mean, we've had a bit of an early start to bush fire season year and it's been a ferocious one as well. in terms of the air pollution, last year in context with this year, last bush fire season only had one day in sydney with an air pollution rating of hazardous. beginning of october, we're at 17 so far in sydney so like it could be a bit unbearable. aul: in terms of an unbearable summer, when can we expect relief? >> it's hard to say. spoke to the bureau of meteorologist yesterday. as long as the winds keep blowing and the fires keep loting we might be seeing a more of these. paul: looks like sustained rain is what's needed and it doesn't to be on the horizon unfortunately. us.ks so much for joining the lking about pollution,
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the most pollution, a blue and ning green. how much are we talking about here? definitely been a pickup in south korea. s you mentioned it's part of a much bigger global trend. some of the most recent issues in south korea have been and industries involved in power production or production, oil refinery. finance equipment for cleaning, particularly the particulate matter that accounts a lot of fine dust that's been a big problem in south korea. sold a green bond to help production of low sulphur shipping.s used in and the utility is planning a green bond sale in dollars early next year, so there has been a flurry. kinds of issuers
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well, industries that are doing social projects and things. for the rally environment. >> andrew, how has demand been for the green bonds? is buying them? >> the demand has really picked of institutional investors who are looking to do so-called environmental social governance type investment. caught investment that's on globally so there is demand from that end. it's part of this much bigger trend of green bond sales picking up quite a lot. bonds have h green increased over 50% this year to billion over $190 globally. the interesting thing is that we've seen more interest from well given all of the investor demand, including some that have been involved in some accidents mean japan. the , the utility behind
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fukshima disaster. >> what could this mean for borrowers? it's an interesting question and it gets down to how this will play out in the longer term. whether this market can curve out a larger space. globally.cing at the moment the data is rather mixed. depends on the particular issuer and so on, for what kind they can costs that get but given that the demand is picking up so much and we have are putting s who into their mandates that they more green uying bonds, expectations are that the financing costs given that demand, where the issuers could ahead.g down >> andrew monahan, who leads our asia credit coverage. a quick check on the latest
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headlines.lash tesla shares could soar and the raising his $500 most optimistic scenario from a $440.t of he's assuming tesla will be able to sell a hundred thousand cybertrucks by 2024 and deliver twice that number of units in china. >> nissan has ordered a two -- beginning next month in another move to cut cost as sales slide. the north american operation remain closed on january 2 nd january 3 to optimize performance saying competitiveness, the company has employee 0% cut in travel expenses effective immediately. through a sales slump on the report that canadian ashion and formula one billionaire is planning a bid.
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and s jumped more than 10% bonds also gained on the report from industry magazine auto car. grc martin is quick check on what's happening in the markets right now. trading is underway in japan and south korea for about 30 minutes now. we've got the nikkei higher by of 1%. rough data.pretty household going down the most 2016. equities continue to rise. 1%.ts higher by .7 of here in australia, modestly higher by .1 of 1% and new looking flat right now. this is after we saw some modest sharing. u.s. equity >> take a look at currencies. japan yen at he the moment not moving that much
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ut it's held in the 108 range for the entire week. we've seen a bit of strength lately having to do with whether seeing progress on the china-u.s. negotiations. goes for the offshore juan which has been olding steady for the past three sessions or so we saw a little bit more strength every ime that we have heard some positive news on the u.s.-china trade negotiations. we've heard from chinese they are in close u.s. t with their counterparts. >> the aussie dollar holding steady right there. the aussie reacting fter some disappointing data yesterday including those october retail sales and international trade surplus that came in lower than expected. the moment really not doing much. the korean yuan is now at the moment against the u.s. dollar. seven-day snapping a
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>> this is "day break asia." on oil reached a deal production that leaves levels barely change. to return forecast to surplus. meeting in vienna, they agree to reduce the target by 500,000 arrels a day essentially formalizing the restrictiones that have been in place for most of the year. to ial details have yet emerge and the decision must be opecied by the wider group plus. aramco has successfully launched biggest initial public offering. it raise $25.6 billion after
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at the top of the marketed range. at ipo values the company $1.7 trillion below the of $2 's original hopes trillion. ramco is a crucial part of trying to weed the saudi economy off fossil fuels. is holding talks with pilots in an attempt to build its making changes to the 737. the company says it's confident new software will win regulatory approval letting the plane back into service. grounded since march after two fatal crashes linked altitude sensors. airline crews says boeing is a trust.y to regaining >> and indian markets fell after lowered its ank full-year forecast for growth and unexpectedly cut interest rates on hold. this year fifth time that the rbi cut its outlook.
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have been expecting a fifth consecutive rate cut. spiking inflation. they also lowered growth october, to 5% from 6.1%. on al news, 24 hours a day, air and on tictoc by bloomberg, journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. jessica summers. this is bloomberg. paul: thanks, jessica. on india's lysis in t decision that's bring dan. dan, why was this such a shock? multiple a shock on levels. go back to late last week when posted its third quarter gdp numbers. growth clearly below 5%. so in the space of a little more had gone fromndia jdp numbers with an eight in front of them to numbers with a
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in front of them. the rbi also yesterday lowered four-year forecast. eople had thought a cut yesterday was a near certainty. not just most of the economists all of the economists expected it. >> it's surprising the markets something, you know, that central banks want to do. time, they did say that inflation was really high, justifyingat sort of the error? having is no point in targets if you can't adhere to them. that's certainly true. they need to be adhered context.roader demand is collapsing in india right now. really worrying about nflation ought not be the key thing. there is no inflation in a
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graveyard. if the indian economy continues the pace it's been slowing, those price pressures dissipate. rbi statement, they are don't want to pin them on weather and the effect that's having on a couple of vegetable prices. that a modern ng central bank ought to be able to see through. strange that despite the fact that the indian economy is slowing down it seems the market is really on a the moment?old at >> well, the stock market is anticipating greater liquidity. the stock market is also anticipating lots of rate cuts. bit put this in a little rdi was shocked with its first decision this year. that was a cut when most people expected a hold. the right decision. in their last meeting of the year yesterday, everybody
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cut, if there was to be a surprise people are thinking that would be a 50 basis point cut. instead they got nothing. a little , probably less desirable. >> thank you. columnist with the latest on india. >> central banks are said to pumping money into the financial markets and economy next year, although at a slower recently. bloomberg's chief economic correspondent joins us in hong kong. this mean they are on a temporary halt because we have as we just talked about, and n on hold, rba on hold a third one on hold? >> we're talking about some of he world's biggest central banks and we had a big shift from quantitative tightening easing and titative if you look at what's happening fed, they are e back in the game of expanding their balance sheet again.
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back into the same direction the doj has been going in for the last two years. some of the are world's, at least three of the banks biggest central pumping water back into the system and economy. there are different reasons for it. buying those securities as part to instill eement growth and inflation. in an isn't pursuing qe outright sense. they are doing to it make sure liquidity in the market. there is meant of cheap central bank money floating around and economists say all of that cheap credit will help supporting what is the inwest pace of global growth a decade. the d the reason, illusionary element to all of this sit real?
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>> they were slice and dicing impact of qe all day long, but i think the net takeaway has be there is a powerful signaling effect when the biggest central banks do backstop their economy. now, there are negative consequences. there are spillover effects. you can argue they are only prices, contributing to asset market globalists and greater owards inequality in society they are trying to promote growth in but is, we've had a lot of standard pressure on the world economy this year, not tensions but trade growing demand, geopolitical pressures and the like. ith the ecb coming back into the game the way they are, switching from tightening to easing, with the fed making the both by putting their pumping rates and money -- there is no doubt that electric cash -- [inaudible] argument made by the supporters of these moves. example, we saw
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the government pumping 26 into the economy and fiscal measures amounting for half of that. doj can mean the afford to do less now? >> the thing is on one hand, headline take away. japan is pumping in stimulus. what the central bank has been for, for so long. in line with the globalist shift ight take pressure off the doj going forward but the question is really how much is net new aren't d the economists super excited in terms of how much it will be a new addition economy.to the it might be enough in the short offset affset, perhaps recession. you've got the slowing trade story and they are trying to look beyond the olympic games but you also have to remember they are doing this fiscal stimulus at the same time side of the other ledger, they have raised the consumption tax and when you say to people in japan they
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that's having an impact there. headline.big ertainly it will help push the economy and avert a recession. is it a game change senator i economists are super excited by that. for: from hong kong, thanks joining us. let's see what's happening in markets with sophie. >> asian stocks are climbing and all treasuries are steady at the of a choppy week and the yen drifting at the 108 level. a weekly ourse for advances the greenbacks slip to a one-month low. japanese shares are set for a second week of gains. rising.ic makers the risk not being overshadowed too much by that dismal spending data which does not bode well for the tax h quarter as sales hikes takes a toll.
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a quick check on where we are with crude. friday asia trade, now adding volatile here after a session, so the turbulence continuing, then. seeing it push towards 59 perhaps, this ahead of opec. to put together its deal. and france also grange ground, 4.8% on a weak here. details waiting for about an agreement, seems to be more symbolic. oil prices set for gain since september. >> coming up next, we have a the outlook about for china. this is bloomberg. asia.s is "daybreak
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>> banc of america says china's growth will accelerate further 2020 because of lingering trade and tech uncertainty eakening domestic demand and the latest policy response. for more we're joined by the bank's chief economist helen qiao. you with us. have espite we're seeing weakening chinese economy, how much slower growth do you expect the chinese to tolerate? >> that's a very good question. first of all, we don't headline y think the growth is the most important thing that top decision makers aying the most attention to anymore these days. apparently, gdp growth has from 6.4% this year in q-1 to 6.0% in q-3. we haven't seen that particular slide has been causing any articular major policy reaction. so first of all, i think that
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shift has already been happening. this is not something new. secondly for next year instead range of 6.0 to 6.5, we'll most likely see the growth move numbers, target growth numbers to about 6.0. probably on the way, and on top of that, i think, you know, at the time we the downward e pressure on growth, not ecessarily being curved by policy reaction and we're worried that policy makers falling behind the curb. we believe that stabilize from q-2, 2020 on-wards. 5.6 for the year. of the reasons that people have said that the pboc act further is because we've seen inflation. of course, we have frican-american swine flu affecting pork prices. can we see food price
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inflation peak? >> you're absolutely right. particular influence on cpi inflation this year coming from food. to be more say, precise, this is not only food specifically meat and pork. african flu is one part of it other thing was probably a pretty active and aggressive of some ation protection, environmental protection rules, and therefore, shortage had been combined with the shock, and verall speaking, i would say that's caused the prices to rise and we'll probably see that all the way until about january, because against a ery low base and also the chinese new year front loading into late january 2020, we'll inflation e the cpi shooting all the way to where the high fours an probably five.ng a however with that said we don't think necessarily -- that's not ecessarily the reason that the pboc is currently, you know, no
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longer considering any additional easing. after all they should be looking eyond the cycle and we think they have other concerns, specially leverage in the system. >> helen, i know you're closely watching the work conference for any policy adjustments that we might see there but is there a any at that conference that decision that gets taken will have a delayed implementation period? you're absolutely right. i think central economic working onference is the window of opportunity that will open up in the near future in mid-december. you ly that will follow, know, after a few days of a eeting on the annual policy, economic policy making. and last year, when it was held around december 15 to december we basically know that this is going to be the guideline eing set for the entire 2019 and we assume the same for 2020. we or this upcoming one think the cwc will likely shift
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easing.e there is more however, if they actually still delay any, you know, that action further, we highly suspect that this will probably add even more downward pressure to growth. and that said, even if they make n announcement saying, okay, we're shipping more towards growth stability, related policy to rities, and we're about do more in policy easing, i'm is id that implementation probably not going to come and kick in until q-2 as well. even if we assume there will be verall policy easing in the sense, it probably will shift, reality, you know in towards the spring or early summer of last year. we did have a pretty decent tate of pmi's, most recent readings out of china. do you feel like that was a case steroids or trying to win the trade war quite well?
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>> i think the recent numbers, and also, in fact, if you look at some of the say steel , i would an cement has been doing particularly well. it actually in southern china. necessarily saying this is because of the domestic stimulus. instead we think this is largely ue to some inventory adjustments. you know, restocking happening specially against a very good weather in southern china in the last two months or so, a lot of the projects need to be caught you know, just in case they to t have enough time finish, towards the beginning of 2020, given that the chinese new extremely close to the calendar new year this year an istop of that, what we heard that bad weather from the summer, too much rainfall, et etera, in the south, also caused a delay in many of the projects, so overall speaking, i this is probably going to be, while very discouraging, relief for ind of now. i don't necessarily think this
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was actually enough to caution impact from the trade war so far. > just quickly before we go, after ief for hong kong they plunged into recession on the bloomberg shows what can we the protests 0 if continue? we're , in our forecast, actually saying it probably -- we'll probably see some more going into 2020. hopefully, you know, towards the chinese new year. and at that time, we're going to go through some tough time in as we see the impact on not only retail accommodation, traveling, cetera, kind of spreading out to other industries, we're also likely see a slight increase in unemployment rate, and our minus 4% for next year. plus we see, as you're saying, and it's a cession tough one. however, we think that probably
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stay for some time, before -- towards the second quarter and third quarter. speaking i would say policy stimulus would be very relief but so far measures a bit more tentative and temporary. of which entation could be delayed. right. america, plenty more to come on "daybreak asia." this is bloomberg. asia." this is bloomberg.
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>> you're watching "daybreak asia." che -- a quick check on headlines. announced n could be in the coming days ending bribery where he was working. the company was set ago sideded to cover any penalties. expansion of the mine in mongolia has overcome a major hurdle. legal al court says the challenge to the agreement that underpins the project is not deal. to invalidate the last month another court ruled in favor of an ngo that disputed the 2015 agreement as well as the authority from the mongolian officials involved in the negotiations.
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is firing itsr -- c.e.o. for ordering a harley-davidson motorcycle to be smuggled the country on a brand-new airbus jet. after the dismissed order committee found he altered the purchase of the classic bike. smuggling of the bike and other goods deprived the state $38,000. >> let's get a preview of what markets later on this morning. >> sticking with the aviation at the end of the week, cover operating costs. hong kong airlines is looking to regulatory for a regardingy december 7 a bail-out. we're also keeping an eye on mtr. this as the operator said in a filing on thursday that protests six months ge over million, and so
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expect 2019 profits to come in less than last year and from july to november slumped 14% year-on-year. >> thank you. continue on hong kong, our asia government management, is with us.ate dan, talk us through what we can expect heading into this weekend. >> well, this is the first weekend in months where the a mass ave approved rally downtown by one of the groups who, you know, is organizing for rallies that brought out millions, you know what they say early onions of people back in june and july. expect very big numbers on sunday. it will be a real big test of, protests whether the stay peaceful or, again, resort to violence. removed t a few weeks from those university sieges hat really disrupted the city, ou know to get one of the main
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arteries between hong kong island and -- just overall violent rries about a police crackdown that could have gotten really ugly. dan, six months on the government, they haven't cracked demands of any of the but the hong kong economy certainly has. is there any evidence of the reassessing their tactics? >> yes. they are definitely reassessing tactics. but it's more whether to occupy the in territories, like universities, rather than keep on protesting. for much of the early days of protests, they adopted a strategy called -- they would go you know, block a road or something, and then when the police showed up they would that.ewhere else and do they say it's very mobile, very flexible. the university sieges, they were police that led to more than 1,300 arrests which total out 1/3 of the since the unrests began.
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so their strategy now appears to to that.ing back more flexible strategy. but everyone we're talking to momentum is still going strong, that there is still an appetite for. they aren't going to stop. we still expect large numbers to this weekend. >> asia government managing kate in sseel hong kong. finalnesday we'll see the meeting of the year. the recent upbeat on the u.s. reflorenced expectations that free policy prolonged hold. >> in yearn, a first meeting with markets watching for clues monetary policy stands, will also get the uk's third in four years n on thursday.
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will boris johnson secure a could the polls surprise again? bracing for the possibility of higher tariffs capping off a busy week filled with interest. asia." it from "daybreak we'll have our markets coverage continue nag moment as we look start of trade in hong kong. for bloomberg markets china open. this is bloomberg. hina open. this is bloomberg.
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selena: welcome to "bloomberg markets: china open." let's get to your top stories this friday. talk, nointense details. the cartel agrees to formalize but is yet to say who will cut by how much. >> aramco raises $25 billion after icing shares at the top of the range. that those worlds most profitable company at $1.7 trillion. an emergency warnings in australia as the
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