daybreake to australia. we are counting down to asia's major market open. ♪ paul: here are the top stories in the next hour. weaker than expected shipments last month show why china needs a trade deal. global demand increasingly hurting the economy. oil set to expand three days of gains after opec announce more production curbs. join hong kong's

biggest demonstration in a month. the numbers indicate the protests will drag on into the new year. kathleen: one story for the stock market on friday for the u.s., a blowout drops report for the month of december -- november, that is -- setting the stage for strong december meeting and even a strong 2020 because people have concerns about recession long gone after the jobs had its biggest monthly gain since january. you can see how the stock market perform, the dow jones industrial average gaining 1.4%. industrials, energy, financials, all the companies doing better, and should do better if the company is going to -- if the economy is going to do better. data to 3.5%.

a separate report shows consumer sentiment at a seven month high. what is this going to mean for asian markets today? sophie: we are seeing a risk on somewhat with futures pointing higher after the weekend brought us a surprise drop in chinese exports. kong, therein hong have been calls for a general strike after the biggest pro-democracy march since the summer. also, we get japan's third-quarter gdp ahead of benchmarks edging closer to 0%. checking on the open in news england, stocks under pressure off 1/10 of 1%, this after seeing a stock under pressure earlier, more than 70% on the surprised designation of the ceo. -- surprise resignation of the ceo.

paul: thank you. that's check in on the first word news and get over to su keenan. su: we start in hong kong, hundreds of thousands of people joined the biggest demonstration in months. -- thisassignment assigned a popular unrest will continue into the new year. that 300,000y people marched on sunday, police but the number below 200,000. the rally was promoted by the human rights front. emergency services remain on high alert in new south wales and queensland as hot, windy weather continues with devastating bushfires. more than 2000 airfares and 100 aircrafts involved in an attempt to halt flames. air pollution in sydney has hit record levels and ranked worse than some cities in china last

week. in the u.k., the latest opinion polls all gave boris johnson's conservative party the lead, four days before the general election. brexit is expected to be top of the agenda as people vote, and those opposing the split are urging a tactical vote against the tories, backing the candidate most likely to win a seat. the prime minister has warned that complacency is the main threat to victory. the u.s. and north korea, president trump downplaying recent missile trip -- missile tests in north korea, saying kim jong-un is too smart and has too much to lose if he acts in a hostile manner toward the u.s. kim's envoyd after said talks about two new -- denuclearization are off the table. state media not say what kind of rocket was tested.

global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm su keenan. kathleen: thank you. china's exports unexpectedly fell last month as global demand continues to weigh in and a trade deal remains tantalizingly out of reach. there is hope for progress out of next sunday's deadline for u.s. tariffs. that's get to our china correspondent, tom mackenzie. key takeaways about what has happened with the trade data when it comes to the trade deal? of how is a reminder punishing the tariffs from the u.s. have been on china's manufacturing sector. the highlight with the trade data out over the weekend,

exports overall from china falling 1.1 percent, there was a forecast they would increase at 0.8%, almost 1%. they dropped 1.1%, this is in november. to the u.s., exports down 23%, the 12th straight monthly decline. they also dropped to the eu as well, sluggish global demand. the expectation has been that retailers and companies would be loading up on goods from china ahead of the shopping season, the christmas shopping season, but that does not seem to have played out in terms of numbers. bloomberg economics says that longer-term, they think the pressure on chinese exports will continue to the u.s., and less you get a wrist in the trade talks. in the tradeite talks. imports have increased your on year, that's after a drop in october. economists we have spoken to said it points to potentially a

stabilization in the domestic chinese economy. we have china importing more u.s. soybeans, is this a goodwill gesture? tom: potentially. overall, we know in terms of soybean imports to china over the month of november, they increased year on year by 41%. they don't break it down, chinese officials, as to which companies -- which countries that come from but we support -- we suspect that a large amount is from the u.s. that might be at the least a nod to the u.s. as a trade negotiations continue. u.s.ll, imports from the uphstep 30 -- u.s. ticked 3%. sources in the u.s. say they

think they will be a deal by december 15, when the additional tariffs could come into play. again, negotiations are around the tariff roll back on the chinese side, and on the u.s. side, just how much the chinese are buying agricultural purchases. paul: thank you for joining us. protesters were out in force in hong kong on sunday in a sign that the antigovernment, anti-china demonstrations will probably drag into the new year. organizers said 800,000 people took part while police but the figure below 200,000. there is also a call for a general strike on monday. man -- yvonne is in the central business district. large: it was another turnout over the weekend and we've been walking around, and in terms of the damage left behind, you're not seeing a lot.

there is still some trash in the streets and graffiti on the walls, and behind me, you see that protesters have thrown petrol bombs at the court of final appeal, which we haven't seen before, there protesters targeted the courts specifically, but this is the most of it. largely speaking, this was a peaceful event. you mentioned that 800,000 people showed up from the victoria park and causeway bay to the central district. we saw families show up, perhaps knowing this was a legal event, the first approved by police since august, and that prompted them to show up in numbers. police were restrained. we saw some riot police toward the end of the march and it was peaceful until nightfall, when the radical protesters and we were some tensions with police. nothing escalated too

quickly or too far. we did not see teargas. water cannons were out but largely on standby. hours before this march, police seized a11 people and whole range of weapons, stills, bullets, pepper spray, and extremeay they presume groups were trying to attack police. there were still some nerves leading up to this event, but overall pretty tema. -- pretty tame. kathleen: what are we expecting today? yvonne: we are seeing signs across the city for a general strike. it is a bit of deja vu once again, what we saw yesterday and the general strikes from what we saw six months ago. people could skip work or school and that's what organizers are

hoping for today. expect some traffic disruptions on the way to work this morning. we interviewed the groups about the next step and they say they of our to continue the fight as long as the government put something on the table, which we haven't seen so far. they are saying they will continue this movement well into next year until the legislative council, that could be the next flashpoint. kathleen: thank you so much, looking forward to your reports today. we will have more on the hong -- on hong kong through the debuted -- hong kong through the day. still to come, an sports retailer later this hour. kathleen: ahead, we are joined by the whittier trust cio to

talk markets this week after friday's stellar u.s. jobs report. this is bloomberg. ♪ report. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: we are counting down to the sydney open, relatively clear day as opposed to the smoke in the past week thanks to favorable winds from the sea, about the only thing in the area not on fire right now. sidney futures higher by more than half a percent, inspired by the big run-up so in u.s. equities after the blowout of jobs numbers. i am paul allen in sydney. kathleen: i am kathleen hays in new york. you're watching daybreak australia. on wall street, we are likely to see investors focused on the latest fed decision, and the first day of trading for saudi arabia -- saudi aramco. su keenan is watching it all. -- all accounts,

the jobs report was stellar purity in exceeded not only expectations but the private payrollsu.s. november rising more than 260000 and unemployment at 3.5%, adding to a risk on tone. can we continue with earnings that are very heavy? big influence a on it, you have around of software bunnies reporting, including adobe. these are toward the end of the week and another round of reports will come out earlier, including dave and buster's entertainment, and lululemon. stocks aret of these green, reflecting the friday close. oracle is one of the marquee names. no major deviation from their guidance is expected. sales are seen rising, but there

is a focus on cloud computing and software because of the disappointing report we saw in sales last week. finally, again, if the earnings come out strong, that may overshadow the fed's report, which is largely expected to remain. paul: let's turn to bonds, an upturn in yields on the september low, is that signaling the u.s. economy might be on the mend in 2020? su: it's having a big impact on diversified portfolios. when have you had a year where stocks and bonds rallied and stocks and bonds domestic and international? you look at portfolios that are 60%, 40% divided between stocks and bonds and they are the standout performers, one of the standout performers of the year, returning about 19.20%.

that would please most equity investors, the only thing that would beat that is if you are in the etf spider. kathleen: what are traitors saying about the outlook for oil? su: surprised about how opec came in, you had a lot of hedge funds that were net bullish and the plunge going into the decision and then you saw oil boost at 59 and it will be interesting to see how they recalibrate going into this week. kathleen: a lot to watch this week. joining us now is the whittier trust cio, it is great to have you back on the show. let's go back to the blowout jobs report. gmre were 46,000 striking workers that came back, that accounted to part of it. unemployment and higher

wages, how do you put it together? >> we knew the jobs number would get boosted by the returning gm workers, that has still left a consensus at 180,000. so by any measure, this was an absolutely blowout number. 3.5% now at rate at a 50 year low. wages are going up modestly. let's look beneath the surface, it is great they are going up, it means incomes are going up and spending will likely follow, and yet they are not going up so rapidly that inflation becomes an issue. we are now 21 months with the unemployment rate below 4%, all of which adds to a healthy u.s. economy. we knew the u.s. economy was all about the u.s. consumer, and the u.s. consumer has been supported by the job market. kathleen: what does this mean for the stock market? there was a story on the bloomberg the last couple of

days about how strategists every year have been saying up 10% on stock and this year saying, maybe 5%. they are still seeing gains but not like recently. how about you? sandip: the big driver for stock returns in 2020 will have to be a revival of growth. it looks like economic growth is picking up. it must be followed by earnings growth. this is a very interesting year. we end up with no earnings growth. it will be a flat year. zero earnings growth in 2019. and we had a gangbusters year in the stock market. this year was all about the expansion of the pe multiple. multiples are full, valuations are full, and the baton will have to be handed to earnings growth.

there is good news, people expect earnings growth to be up about 10%. theresay that if we see partial resolution of the global trade war, and remember we have seen a concerted effort by global central banks to ease recently, that lays out on a lag basis, and so that could combined to make the growth expectation come true. i come out in the same camp, looking for a 5%-10% year in the u.s. stock market next year. paul: what about valuations? we have a number of guests who talk about just how expensive u.s. equities are looking right now. has the future earnings growth already been priced in? sandip: it is priced in, but don't think of the multiple in terms of growth rates or what happens with gdp growth. these multiples are being supported by low interest rates. let's do some quick arithmetic. as it stands, the pe multiple is

7.8 times, which seems obscenely high. the average is 14.5-15 times. but that was realized when the 10 year bond was at five cents. today, the u.s. ten-year treasury yield is well below 2%, of that explains why a pe 17-18 is fair and we are not overvalued. if you must look for evaluation bubbles or digressions, it is in the bond market. the bond market is overvalued. we make the observation that this was a unique year for stocks and bonds, but get ready for a disconnect, i think stocks will continue to go up but not so much the bond market, rates will go up gradually. and iff that is the case you are looking to increase exposure to equities, where do you see the best opportunity? clear: first, it is

stocks over bonds, and then the question is where in the global stock market do you find the best opportunity? it is tempting to look outside the u.s. based on valuation, the growth dynamics are poor outside the u.s. the u.s. economy and u.s. stock market has the best growth fundamentals. would stay home from my perspective and focus on the quality of growth. underneath that type of decision you have sectors to pick from, and given the constructive view of the economy and market i just offered, we are procyclical. it is technology, consumer discretionary, financials and industrials that have been victim of the trade war could yet benefit. pick theompanies, companies that will be around a long time that have great fundamentals. amazon, microsoft and visa come to mind.

kathleen: how do you feel about bonds? you mentioned they will not gain, it will be tough, if there's any kind of a trade deal, if the economy continues to grow even to percent, the fed is not going to do anything. looking at inflation expectations, there are a couple of the things you can look at, the breakeven rate, the breakeven five-year. let me get on my screen. the university of michigan survey, inflation expectations k again.k again -- wea even if bonds don't rally, is there an expectation for bonds to do anything but for yields to sit where they are for a while? sandip: i suggested rates might go up, let me clarify. they will grow up -- go up but gradually. ministryit is such a

-- a mystery. how in the 11th year of an expansion, with the unemployment rate the slow, -- this low, how on earth can inflation be so muted? i will make two observations. the obvious ones are global competition and technology have put a lid on inflation. this is a secular trend. businesses are getting disrupted left and right. there is a more subtle driver in that productivity gains have gone up. we know average hourly earnings from friday in the u.s. were measured at 3.1%. when you take the pickup in productivity gains, unit labor costs are up just 2%. these are some of the factors that are keeping inflation low and therefore rates will go up but not back to 3%-5%.

paul: thank you so much for joining us today. we have plenty more to come on daybreak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪ eak australia. this is bloomberg. ♪

kathleen: now for a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. goldman sachs ended the week on --igh, reports sources say the justice department and other agencies have discussed penalties between 1.5 and 2 billion dollars, less than what some observers have been expecting and goldman shares rose on the news. paul: reports from japan say nissan may be fined more than $20 million as part of the carlos ghosn affair. the security and exchange commission is ready to advise the financial services agency. oflos ghosn was accused

crimes ranging from falsifying documents to using company money for his own use and denies wrongdoing. kathleen: coming up, the outlook for oil after opec surprise markets with extra production curbs. this is bloomberg. ♪ whether you're out here on lte.

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paul: 9:30 a.m. in sydney. the market open 30 minutes away. futures pointing higher by .5%. we saw decent gains on u.s. equities friday following impressive jobs numbers. i am paul allen in sydney. kathleen: i am kathleen hays. you are watching daybreak australia. now first word news with su keenan. su: we start with chinese exports which go unexpectedly -- which fell unexpectedly. global demand also slips. outbound shipments of 1.1% from 23%ar ago and we are down

to the u.s.. it is the worst reading for exports since february and it is the 12th consecutive month. -- monthly decline. shipping have been expected to increase. will preventers muslim migrants from winning citizenship. it is the latest move in the hardline internationalist program. seeing going against the secular constitution. people arriving from pakistan, and bangladesh, muslims are excluded. qatar is holding talks with saudi arabia, the longest -- the latest sign the diplomatic and diplomatic -- diplomatic and business stand up will be resolved. news from contact comes from the emir of qatar to attend the summit of gulf arab monarchies.

saudi arabia, the uae, bahrain ,nd egypt cut links with qatar accusing delhi of funding terror -- qatar ofg funding terrorism. china's third richest man is set for a $2 billion windfall. the chairman will earn the money after the property development and electric car one of the declared the record dividend. they are proposing a payout of 1 .42 yuan a share. his 78% stake in ever grand means it will pocket most of the cash. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @tictoc on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am su keenan. this is bloomberg. kathleen: stocks up 1% on major

indexes after a strong jobs report. how is this feeding into asian markets? is fighting one 7.7% -- sliding 7.7% after the resignation of the ceo. they have confirmed earnings guidance -- serving as interim ceo while the erector will oversee the chinese business. the company said there will be no material changes to plans and expansion over the next three to five years in the u.s. and china. we will be looking at reaction in sydney. i have recovered since -- they have recovered since they fell in august but rebounding given the improved earnings outlook. now looking at a macro picture of the ecb and the fed meetings. dwindlingople are

while a hard pass is not certain. it could drive a narrowing of the spreads. we have seen tightening through 2019 from a cyclical high last november and about 355 basis points to 220 this week. and had in london, the reckons it can go towards the 190 basis points. let's get more on what we should be watching trading underway in asia. looks like positive start to the week. investors are looking for guidance. reporter: i think these two central bank meetings are key has where assets are going to go. we saw the rally in u.s. stocks, futures stronger this morning. at the same time you have had

bond yields, treasury yields higher in the u.s. we have a chart that shows the they have been trading in. it is interesting we have had 750 rate cuts and investors will be looking at the fed and the ecb for any hint of what is likely to happen next year. there will be any -- no clear direction of any easing. it will support equities through the week. unknowns outt of there. trade they are watching out for. you have the u.s. election. the u.k. election, the conservatives likely to win which would remove another brexit unknown. supportive of the rally, the central bank meetings, crucial

to determine the direction. kathleen: how about asia's second-best market at odds with earnings? what is going on with australia? reporter: one thing we need to point out is the aussie dollar which brought back some ground on optimism about the phase one deal. any sustainable rally very much depends on local data. --had three quarter gdp extending a losing streak, and we have got a chart that shows the aussie stock in the three-month trading range. traders are looking at business confidence figures this week. pattern,ontinue this it is likely to increase further

rba rate cuts and keep pressure on the aussies. so much foryou joining us. you can check out the gtv library for those charts we have been talking about and find it at gtv on the terminal. saudi arabia surprised the oil market with deep production cuts. >> the best thing to do is to preemptively lower production to make sure that we could deal with this stalking as we go on to the end of 2020. >> this report was best on analysis of the market. revenuet additional from stabilization of the market. we might end up with a better rewards. everybody realized the fax

these cuts are good for us because we are there to tighten. paul: our editor joins us now. how are they likely to react? >> we will see a strong open in asia. the market gets underway. we could see brent crude pushing up towards the $70 a barrel mark which we have not seen since april. we are some way away from that. analystslonger term, are divided on what this means. extral counterbalance the production cut. it rests on the compliance of opec members. saudi's are leaving from the front on this. they will go above and beyond what was agreed at the weekend. they are hoping it will bring others along.

compensate to not be included in this. of -- inq that is one terms of agreeing with these thoughts. we need to see they are complying with the cuts to have the full effect. >> what was the saudi's motivation? -- motivation? >> i think. we saw the oil minister on the tapes and apparently he played a pivotal role and clearly he did. he relatively new. it was a fascinating meeting in the sense leading up to it we didn't get the sort of -- there was in the expectation with these cuts. they kept their cards very close to their chest and a continued through the meeting. unlike previous meetings it was not a lot of leakage. the ministers went to the hotels with very little to say.

the effect has been likely to magnify the effect on the market because of the level of surprise. we saw the data showing hedge funds have cut bets on crude going up. up.ill magnify that move when you talk about aramco, mohammad bin salman has his reputation on this. he wants a valuation of $2 trillion. the ipo is going to launch wednesday with 1.7 at the price it was agreed. he will be hoping we get the uplift in oil prices which will take us closer to the $2 trillion level. kathleen: thank you so much. houston regrets have started making their final arguments for impeachment. we will tell you what they are. this is bloomberg. ♪ are. this is bloomberg. ♪

kathleen: democrats are making their final arguments the impeachment of president trump with a simple refrain, nothing less than the integrity of the presidential election is at stake. joining us is ros krasny. democrats coming up, using words to sell impeachment to the american people? it is part of it because the american the pope -- the american public is split when it comes to impeachment. this is the democrats' last best chance to make the argument. we will hear from interesting lawyers tomorrow and if you are a fan of constitutional law, a day of high drama when we hear from the minority and majority counsel. the intelligence committee and judiciary committee will be involved. are going to spend

the week debating how far to go in terms of articles of impeachment and that is a huge debate at the moment. do they reach back into the mueller report to come up with articles of impeachment or do they come on the ukrainian in cory? looks like the likely articles of impeachment we will hear, abuse of power and of traction of justice, it goes back to the testimony we have been hearing in recent weeks. president trump withheld almost $400 million in security assistance from ukraine to spark investigation into joe biden and his son. thisis the play-by-play at point. hear what are we likely to in monday's hearings and more critically is a going to change the mood in the senate with the

biggest hurdle? ros: a doesn't seem like there is anything that will change the mood in the senate. we heard from ted cruz today on one of the tv talk shows. he is unmoved by anything he has heard. president trump's allies have really close ranks in more and more of the last two weeks. democrats pivoting to a late inning justification. ,t is something jerrold nadler nancy pelosi and others have been loading. they start -- floating. they talked about the headlines from jerry nadler, saying trump would try to rig the 2020 poll, saying he will be for it and he will do it again. they have tried to ratchet up the tension to the american people. this is a tremendous rush to judgment. they have got trump in the camp.

one republican, he is jerrold nadler -- jerrold nadler's counterpart. he said nadler has been looking to do this not since trump was elected but for 20 years, it is payback for president bill clinton. there is a lot of bad blood. it is a highly partisan effort and most people think trump will be impeached by the house and acquitted by the senate. whether anything can change minds from those kind of ,ositions in the next few weeks i don't really know. we will have a lot to go on after tomorrow's hearing. krasny, thank you for joining us. we will be joined by decathlon australia's ceo to discuss business strategy in the region and the outlook for sporting goods. this is bloomberg. ♪ goods. this is bloomberg. ♪

paul: one of the world's largest sporting retailers opened a fifth store in australia and is planning to expand across the country and beyond. we have decathlon australia ceo here. think you for joining us. five stores in australia, you will see potential in this market. >> on these are the most -- [indiscernible] issue.e do have an we were speaking about this retail spending in australia is down. there is evidence tax cuts or rate cuts are not being spent. people are opting to save. have you noticed a downturn? >> that is right but it is an opportunity. butralians are sporty sporting goods are expensive. our aim is to make sports more accessible to more australians.

works a lot to innovate and bring new products with high quality. our philosophy to bring the lowest price as we can. people love us for this reason. paul: you have us -- your own range of sporting goods. >> i just have an example of this designed by our teammates. this is a very innovative mask. by can breathe under water your nose and relax with a 180 view. people take that to decathlon and to this mask. paul: a filter on the end, it would be very beneficial. you have been called -- decathlon has been called the

ikea of the sporting goods world. you started in 1986. i want more background on how this came about. you have achieved tremendous growth. you started in france and now you are opening stores all over the world. decathlon wants to improve people's lives through sports. this for more than 40 years. we are familiar company and we try to do our best and develop some nice products. people love it. our competition, you can find sporting goods in kmart in australia. very low prices. sometimes it is not the right quality. designed --ne in and designed for sports users.

to make itphy is different. that is why we were successful. to make the best quality and best price. high quality doesn't mean higher prices. kathleen: in terms of your market, is there a certain age group you target? you have every kind of sport there is. where are you focusing? >> we are focusing in different countries. we are in 51 countries and 26 of these in the past three years. now we focus on cities. we are in 800 cities. we would like to grow to more than 1000. in every city we try to find different models and concepts first to sell online and deliver where you want to your house or sports club, but also to have

comedian -- convenience stores and our famous destination stores where you find 70 sports under one roof and find the incredible experience especially for families. they love it. our experience is so disrupting. two-hourre are delivery in australia. how will you achieve that? >> reinvest a lot on our digital website -- we invest a lot on our digital website and next year we invest in a digital house to make it faster. australia is so big. they are going from sydney to perth, you need a few days. paul: and looking at the other end, one of the topics we talk about a lot is the trade war and the impact on business. i am wondering if you are feeling effects on your supply chain? >> we work on a substantive

model. we are a family company with sustainable growth. we don't want to grow too fast. we are not affected. we have partnership since a long time with money partners all over -- many partners all over the world. we retail in more than 50 countries. wherever we can, we try to -- in braziletail we produce and retail. paul: do you produce in australia? >> will produce our nutrition brands but it is impossible to produce shoes or bicycles because there is no industry for this what we love it. it is our philosophy. kathleen: the brand, whether it you seemr adidas, and to be taking a different path with your private labor and products. you think this is the way the world is going, particularly younger consumers who want the

best deal possible and aren't so hung up on brands? -- i have a lot of respect for adidas and nike. we have partnered with them and we sell them, but our own brands are different. just try to innovate with smart products done for users. we don't invest that much in fashion. we are a sports company. we do products for users and try to organize with a sustainable model. people in a country the best price. make it a bit different. i think if you want to be successful, you need to have your own past. -- path. focusen: mobile a bakery

that you will you -- will the olympics be a focus that you will get the whole world during sports would -- the whole world thinks about sports during the olympics. >> we try to respect sport -- so, our teams and our far it is natural. as the familiar company we want to make it sustainable for the long-term. we are a sport company, not a fashion company. many of our competitors sell fashion products. we are just for hikers and footballers. we do it for them. of skiing.w images i know that you see one of your competitors -- the supermarket's most popular thing is ski equipment. >> it was strange to see all the aldi as a competitor.

brand is based in the alps. we have more than 100 designers, engineers who are working every day with skills doing 8 -- skiers eight months a year to do the best products. we try to find smart innovations and we are good in our stores. as a not used to seeing ski leaderaldi because in europe -- seeing aldi as a ski leader in europe because they don't do it. paul: we have plenty more coming up on daybreak asia. japan's final measure of gdp is out. it will be -- we will have a guest along to give us his reaction. that is almost it for daybreak australia this morning. new zealand trading is underway.

we will be going in australia in a few minutes' time. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

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paul: good morning, i am paul allen in sydney. we are an hour from the market open in japan and south korea. kathleen: i am kathleen hays. sophie: i am sophie kamaruddin. welcome to daybreak asia. ♪ paul: our top stories, expected shipments show why china needs a trade deal. theal demand is hurting economy.