tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg December 11, 2019 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
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defined by inflation. and it is clear there is a sluggishness in moving to where the economy actually is and what the economy can take in terms of on employment. scarlet: so we have measurement issues perhaps getting in the way. let's get them a ruler. metric system? joe: i never learned the metric system. scarlet: we have a gain on our handsy are. luke, who is from canada, is knotting. -- nodding. romaine: scarlet, get us back on track. scarlet: there is not much to say here. romaine: we are still inching higher. joe: something to note here that etf,t on the board, eem, up 1.46%. which is consistent with the idea it was so dovish because of the dollar strength. scarlet: and the dollar extended
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its weakness too. alicia: i want to point out the dollar has been moving lower the last eight weeks, telling you it is on its way down to a softening, making emerging markets actually kind of interesting. the fed has blasted it today. romaine: let's dive deeper into all the action right now with our markets reporters. abigail, what are you watching? abigail: i have my eye on volatility once again. the vix and speculative vix sports. might not have stocks moving much. but some who have been selling volatility this year are starting to change their mind. in white, speculative vix shorts. in blue is the fear index. when the whole theme that you was complacency, the vix shorts, superhigh. the beginning of 2018, the vix spiked at the beginning of the year as the trade war kicked
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off. into the fourth quarter after climbing, the vix shorts came back off. this year vix shorts have been climbing all year as many investors and speculative investors have been selling. but right now it is starting to come off a little as the vix creeps higher. we are keeping and i in this period of less than 1% for the s&p 500. when that changes that could be big volatility. taylor: i wanted to tag onto a point you made earlier coming back to the small caps. if you look at the chart i am showing we are looking at the racial performance of small caps relative to the s&p 500. near what has been a three year low. we are starting in white two inch up higher after four strategists expect small caps to outperform in 2020. looking at a 7% gain in the -- 7% gain in the russell 2000.
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starting to pick up a little momentum as trade optimism goes on come help in the economy restore some appetite for small-cap stocks. highly dependent on manufacturing. pmi numbers can also turnaround. renita: i am taking a look at gold and its extended gains after the fed chose to keep rates the same and signal it would do the same for the year 2020. look at the intraday action. it also earlier advanced after the contained apace of u.s. inflation data reinforced the case for that very fed action. yearill more than 12% this for the year, and trade uncertainty has cap -- kept gold in the back pocket of investors seeking to find a safe haven for the assets. they are still eyeing this december 15 u.s. china trade deadline, and thursday's u.k. election. scarlet: thank you for all that context. still with us is alicia levine,
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as well as bloomberg news across asset reporter luke kawa. i am glad you brought up the eem rising 1.5%, outperforming. semiconductors also did better. chip stocks up to put 1%. with the fed now clearly making its stance known, it will tilt dovish and not do anything in 2020, does this give all cyclical sectors the green light? alicia: this is a great moment to go back into cyclical sectors. the market has been telling you the last two months the global economy stabilizing. perhaps upward and growth. we think in the u.s. growth will be higher than most estimates have for next year. classest, other asset are way underpriced compared to the u.s. market. so the u.s. is the best house in a really bad neighborhood, and it is now time to look at other asset classes, whether stocks or dollar, a fed on hold.
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other markets are cheaper. ise: what is interesting non-us assets is the big story today. when we were talking about rotations and markets it was all one trade. yield throughout the world versus u.s. and growth of value proponents are moving together. today you have the rest of the world outperforming, but in the u.s., growth stocks still outperforming. and that is the yield down factor. i think this speaks to the role of the dollar in taking control of that reaction, yields taking control of more of the factors. joe: so they are related but there is a distinct dollar effect versus cyclical effect. not about some big growth pickup or say, it is -- pickup per say. currency markets as a result of powell. luke: for now. for now will be a big caveat. it could turn into something that would have more fundamental lack. in the u.s., eurozone and china now all positive for the first time since march of 2018.
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scarlet: we have earnings out from lululemon. the yogawear maker, although it has expanded its line to men. boosted its full-year earnings-per-share view. $478.es for $75 to by the way, that range is higher than the average analyst estimate which was $.75. quarter, etfird was $.96 versus $.71 year-over-year. it also tops the average analyst estimate by $0.03. total revenue in the third quarter, excluding the effects of currency, it rose 17%, better than what analysts were looking for, which was 14.2%. but the stock is down about 7.5% in after-hours trading. maybe people wanted to hear more in terms of the midpoint. more than just a midpoint view beating consensus estimate. romaine: let's stay on that
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broader theme of earnings. are we expecting going into -- are you expecting any kind of meaningful upside surprises to earnings in aggregate? alicia: in a funny way we already have the upside surprise. here we are the middle of december, and by now earnings estimates for 2020 should have been cut by 2% or 3% from october 1, which is where the cutting cycle really starts historically on wall street. we are still hanging out at 9% to 10% earnings growth for 2020. we have not gotten that cut we should have gotten by now. we have already gone the earnings upside surprise for next year, which i actually find really interesting. i thought we would see it about 7% for next year. we are not. what are you seeing in terms of earnings and how people are feeling about next year? luke: the interesting thing for a while is destabilization you have for the s&p 500, but you look lower to the mid-caps and small caps, and those are places
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where profit outlook has been deteriorating and brutal for a while. you have seen that turnaround for the past month. forward for the mid-caps or small caps, those are now starting to turn a little higher, and that kind of fits with the theme of a more resilient u.s. economy. then on the other hand i think the earnings picture could be flatter if this dollar trends that we have seen recently continues to go on. the flipside of that is it could make it a little more challenging to get those unhedged for inflows into the u.s. corporate bond markets, so it could be a stocks versus bonds story for 2020. scarlet: something else we will look ahead to. something else this week is the u.k. election tomorrow. felicia, is that changing the way that you view investors pricing risk? alicia: we are actually very positive on the u.k. so, absent some hung parliament, which is possible, i think any resolution of this at all is positive. there have been massive outflows
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from u.k. equities since june of 2016. we think the u.k. looks interesting. the economy has slowed because of the lack of investment, particularly in the last year as brexit kept getting pushed out. you cannot invest with this uncertainty. this will put an end to that and we really like the u.k. actually. romaine: i want to get your thoughts on the ecb tomorrow. what are you expecting, and how does that play into the global dynamic of rate differentials? alicia: christine lagarde has a delicate balancing act because she has the germans on the one side screaming about negative rates, and the rest of europe on the other that needs to support the economy. i think we will see more accommodation. i think we are going to start hearing a press towards fiscal policy. the ecb has come to the end of the brick road. it cannot go any further with negative rates. it needs fiscal policy. i think christine lagarde is in a really interesting position here as someone with a credible
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the federal reserve leaves rates unchanged, signaling to keep them as it is through the new year. and johnson versus corbin. u.k. voters heading to the polls tomorrow to decide who will be heading 10 downing street. and bank of japan officials say they have seen a sizable impact from the government stimulus last week, signaling a possible forecast raise. reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged as expected. fed chairman jerome powell weighing in on the decision. take a listen. without decisions through the course of the past year we believe monetary policy is well-positioned to serve the american people by supporting continued economic growth, a strong job market, and inflation near our symmetric 2% goal. while low and stable inflation is certainly a good thing, inflation that runs below our objective can lead to a unhealthy than amick which leads
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to dripping down, pulling actual inflation lower. looking ahead we will monitor the effects of our recent policy actions along with other information as we assess the appropriate path of the target. of course if development emerge that cause immaterial reassessment of our outlook, we would respond accordingly. policy is not on a preset course. discussning us now to the fed decision and chairman powell's comments is ubs chief u.s. economist seth carpenter, who previously worked for the board of governors of the federal reserve from 1999 through 2014. thank you very much for joining us. the fed says the fed did not hike. everyone rbc expected it. the fact there is nothing more expected next year is well expected. what about the press conference? theit this rise you -- did dovishness surprise you? seth: the question comes where
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people's expectations were. the dovishness came through when he started talking about the unemployment rate coming down. good thing to basically see how far he can run. that feels like a dovish side of things. what i thought was interesting was last time in october he said in response to a question, what would it take to hike rates next, he said it would take a really substantial sustained increase. this time they have it leveling out at 2%. nevertheless by 2022, they all think they will hike. that kind of consistency in talking about inflation, that for me is the tough part about following these. romaine: they are basically saying 2.1%, and they would be ready to hike again. they seemed to be some expectation we were going to get more of a rethink by the fed of their mandate, or at least how they would try to achieve that mandate. it doesn't seem like we got that. seth: i completely agree, we did
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not get that. they funny because in 2018 were willing to write down in their forecast an overshoot of inflation of their own forecast. now they are not willing to write that down and yet they are still hiking. to me that cause into question where they are. romaine: but then do we interpret this as dovish? it seems like that almost contradicts the dovishness. seth: for me that is the real issue. have thee tries to unpleasant conversation. but it is not a real consistent, coherent message. joe: does that make the case for getting rid of the -- you hear a lot of people say people don't understand what they are. if we cannot even make sense of how the dots square with the spoken words of the fed chair, or when the fed governor speaks, -- seth: there is a strong argument for that.
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i was working at the fed when the dots were created. they are like a rorschach test. everyone can see in them whenever what was already in their mind. one person could write down a bunch of hikes and 2% inflation and say we have to hike, and the other person would say to percent inflation, there is no reason to hike. it all comes down to interpretation. i think they mislead as often as they inform. romaine: i was always under the impression powell was not a fan of the dots. he continues to stick by it, i don't know if it is him or the committee pushing on him. when you look at the economic forecasts out there, do you think the economic data we have is in line with what is being communicated by the fed with regard to their potential policy? seth: i think that is hard. powell pointed to the reassurance part, job creation. if you just stick with the numbers are looks good, and consumer spending is hair -- holding up solidly. but investment spending is negative. we she -- we see factory
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shipment going negative. taking how he phrased it, consumer spending is holding up, yeah, i think it is consistent. we are quite worried about how the next several months plays out as the tariffs that already went in in june in september continue to filter their way through. ishink what powell is saying given the information we are on hold, but if things change, we will change our minds. joe: one of the key answers for me was at the end it when he was asked to say whether he would characterize the labor market is hot. he said no because wage growth is still not impressive. i was also struck because he talked about the benefits of some of these fed listening tours. what is the state of your world right now? i am curious whether you think the fact that powell is not an academic economist, he comes from a business background, is perhaps a source of flexibility in his ability to say maybe the models say we should be hiking
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or that inflation is around the corner, but maybe he is showing a willingness to look at the world and listen to people and say maybe that is not much of an issue. seth: being an academic economist can be a double-edged sword. we did see the fed start to raise interest rates in 2015 with inflation below their target, and it was all predicated on this belief that low and falling unemployment rate would inexorably lead to increased inflation. but absolute kudos for him to be intellectually flexible in that regard and thinking maybe we don't know quite as much as we thought. romaine: do you think the fed will respond if the trade issues become a little more of a sticking point for the economy? do you think the fed will respond specifically to the trade issue? seth: my sense right now as they will be on heightened alert but they will probably have to see it in the data. soap additional falling in investment spending, pullback in hiring, some fallen consumption spending. romaine: our thanks to ubs chief
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slightly below what they were looking for and it appears to be what is pushing down shares. they gave a full year outlook that was higher than estimates. but again, they are expecting more. joe: and more breaking news out of brazil. seems the fed is not the only central bank with a dovish posture. brazil cutting its benchmark lending rates from 5% to 4.5%. a 50 basis point cut. they see gradual economic recovery. and the central bank recommending caution in monetary policy. romaine: let's turn to billionaire ken griffin. does he have another money machine to rival pitch has found? they areecurities, much more lucrative than you might think. i am not sure anyone -- i don't know anyone who has dismissed citadel securities, but i guess a lot of folks may not give it its due. >> they are two separate
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entities. everyone knows ken griffin as the big hedge fund manager. eight years ago and they really started to try to get into traditional investment banking functions it did not really work out for them. romaine: that is still the same company? sonali: yes. now the market-making has been more successful for them. than manyt bigger people realized? joe: so what collect. in the beginning it didn't work. they had a number of false starts. what finally collect -- click for them where they were finally a serious player? sonali: they benefited from banks not being liquidity providers in markets and they have entered options trading markets flopped and equity markets and big ways come --. is made a lot of wealth
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by exploiting those types of opportunities. and he has gotten very wealthy over the past year primarily because of this. sonali: $10 billion on the bloomberg billionaire index. the other part of his empire expands by another $5 million. his hedge fund is also doing really well. maine hedge funds wellington, tactical trading, each up more than 50%. he is having a great time on both sides of his empire. citadel securities handled a lot this year. uber, slack. joe: let's talk more about the regulations that were put in place post-crisis that enabled citadel to become such a big markets player, and how much of those regulations are frustrating. sonali: very much. i keep on saying to people joking around it wall street's biggest enemy is itself. you have this big war between the cell and the buy side
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because they are getting into each other's business. especially as the trade inflow is being captured by people like citadel. romaine: but this will continue? unless you get loosening of regulations, which i guess is possible, but not necessarily a slamdunk. sonali: even if they turn back the wheel on a lot of this it will be a difficult thing to do. a lot of the banks contend that some things paul volcker took away is not going to come back. they cannot pay these traders like they used to. and also it is really hard for banks with the capital constraints they have to be what they were pre-prices. joe: now, a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. growing signs of confidence of u.s. steel. they have raise prices for some products. that is the third increase in less than two months. prices are steel futures on the you -- on the new york mercantile exchange have
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rebounded 14% from a three year low in early november. chevron's plan to write as much as $11 billion in assets and being oil -- has manye-down wondering if exxon mobil is next. exxon made a strong play in u.s. natural gas about a decade ago. energy prices have tumbled. exxon is not commenting. that is your business flash update. coming up, british voters heading to the polls. we discussed the u.k. general election next with heather conley from the center for strategic and international. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪
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bloomberg first word news. president trump, a setback on his effort to build a wall on the u.s. border with mexico. a federal judge in oakland, california, has barred the president from using military construction funds to build the wall. the judge ruled he illegally circumvented congress. the united nations secretary-general antonio guterres said today that the world "will pay an unbearable price if nothing is done in the next 12 months for the climate emergency. he issued the warning at an event at the u.n. climate conference in madrid.
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>> it is five minutes to midnight in the global climate emergency. carbon pollution must stop fallingn 2020 and start to keep the paris agreement goals within realistic reach. we are a very long way behind but there is still reason to believe we can win this race. thunberg, the young activist, also spoke at the event. she told delegates that rich nberg has been time magazine's person of the year. -- the mayord that accused to call the violence an
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anti-semitic attack but says surveillance video shows the gunmen driving slowly through city streets before stopping outside eight kosher grocery store where they calmly got out of their van and immediately opened fire. >> there were two officers on a walking post south. when they heard the gunshots, they responded immediately. had they not responded and had they not been there in that location, more than likely, more people would have died. jersey city's public safety director said today that terrorism was not suspected. parents of children and educators killed in the sandy hook massacre will go forward with a lawsuit. they have received a september 2021 trial date for their lawsuit against remington arms
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over the marketing of the rifle the shooter used. the gunmen killed 26 people at the newtown, connecticut school. this week marks seven years since that attack. the new york times reports that harvey weinstein and the board of his bankrupt film studio have reached a tentative settlement agreement with dozens of his alleged sexual misconduct visions -- misconduct victims. not say the deal will require the holiday producer to admit -- the hollywood producer to admit wrongdoing. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quick take by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. onaine: the u.k. votes thursday. it will determine whether conservative prime minister
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boris johnson the mandate to get brexit done or will he have to hand over the reins jeremy corbyn. the latest poll has cut johnson's lead by half. joining us it's better conley from the center for strategic and international studies. there's been talk about the lead narrowing, but does that really mean we blend up with a surprise friday morning -- we will and up with a surprise friday morning? heather: we don't know. even a hung parliament is certainly within the statistical margin of error of that most recent poll. three outcomes. one, there could be a significantly larger conservative majority. the smaller one seems to be where the polls are heading or in fact they don't receive a
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majority. so much of this building will depend on turnout. over 3.5 million voters registered right at the very end. in this tactical voting, which means that individuals are not voting for the party that they want, they are just making sure the party they don't want our successful. a hungt's say there is parliament because, in a way, that is the interesting outcome. a conservative majority, we can expect brexit to move forward. what could we be looking at theoretically with a hung parliament? how does the prospect of a brexit look there? you could have a conservative minority government that seems unlikely because the conservatives have no natural ally or party that would be either willing to form a give its vote to
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make sure it can have a majority. this is why it looks more likely that if there is a hung parliament, it would be a labor minority. they could potentially join with the liberal democrats, the scottish national party, the greens, some of the other smaller regional parties. but does that mean that jeremy corbyn would be that labor prime minister? some of these parties, particularly the liberal democrats, say they would not allow jeremy corbyn to be the prime minister and that kind of scenario. what it means for brexit, if there is a labor -- if there is a labour i already government, i think we go back to the drawing board. i think they would renegotiate the drop -- the withdrawal agreement and take that agreement and put it before a second referendum. it would allow people to vote on
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that new deal. theould send us back to drawing boards in some way. romaine: let's assume we get to a goshen stage -- the negotiation stage with the eu. for this complicate things a potential brexit deal should it make it through parliament? heather: michel barnier will continue to be the lead eu negotiator for the future trade relationship same person, slightly different team. how this would work, if in fact there is a sizable enough conservative majority, the u.k. will leave the eu by january 31 of last year. then, as crazy as it sounds, the hard work against. -- the hard work begins. because they have 10 months to
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conclude a free-trade agreement. this is going to be lightning speed. by july 1, the government would have to ask for an extension. boris johnson has said that he will never ask for an extension. brexithave another hard at the end of 2020. the brexiteers tell us they would just fall back on wto tariff rules. we are not even sure there will be a wto to year. boris johnson wants to diverge from the eu and not create a level playing field. stay tuned. your will be just as much fun as this year. joe: right stuff. thank you very much, heather conley of the center for strategic and international studies. tomorrow, tune in for our special coverage of the u.k.
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joe: hitting pause. the federal reserve leaves rates unchanged and signaling they will keep that through the new year. is it time for further buying? our founder of unison advisors and a contributor to bloomberg opinion. what is your take away? markets reacted positively, not wildly, but some modest gains. the lack ofee did implied hikes and dovish zone
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from powell give life to investors? >> one of the theories of the last 10 years is that the fed has pumped up asset prices. what is interesting about stock prices, and we can test this because we have 100 years of data. we can run a very simple regression just looking at interest rates and stock valuations. i can't find any correlation between those two. the for fun, i looked at international developing markets and emerging markets and compared valuations with their interest rates. possible there is a relationship. romaine: are we just talking about from an umbrella sort of standpoint or individual areas? we have talked to money managers on say they keep a close eye
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what bond markets are doing to make selling decisions. now we are in this situation where we could be in a lower for forever rate environment. nir: i don't think that we have the evidence to be able to say it does, but i think there is another side of this, which is that even if you believe that becauseterest rates assets to go up, if you look at the markets now, it seems they have done their job. it seems to me that does not mean a whole lot because we have already gone the price inflation. joe: what about the posture of monetary policy? that the rates, but the reaction function as some people call it, not iclination to hike or could. if investors believe the economy can and seller -- can accelerate
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, could that be the kind of thing that would be bullish? nir: it is possible. one of the things we could say for sure, what has driven this market higher is earnings. there is a second order i cannot find the correlation. the earnings growth over the last 10 years, is that sustainable, is that informed by interest rates? my answer, no it is not sustainable and no it is not confirmed by interest rates. romaine: a lot of the handwringing is whether we are at the end of the economic cycle, the end of april market. he wrote a column trying some parallels between 1998. powell addressed that. not 1998 ifertainly
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you look at it from the perspective of how rich the market got from then until now. there is a very similar psyche in this market, which is that there does not seem to be a a lot of interest in fundamentals. by the way, i don't think that is just a stockmarket thing. i think that is fueling a lot places. it really did not seem to care a lot about asset prices. nir, always great to have you. our thanks to nir kaissar. joe: time for smart charts with abigail doolittle. this week, your guest stocks may be nearing the top. abigail: you are right. making this possible call, not entirely certain, david keller of stockcharts.com.
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there are lots of risk events but you are taking a little bit of a contrarian view? david: i think we are entering into the seasonally strongest part of the year. people as at of result get very excited thinking we will keep going up forever. as a reality, just up a little bit, we might not be as something.as i have seen some rings that they lead you to a little bit of caution. -- thehave the place price for the 200 day moving averages. at the bottom, i am showing at 1% of that we are at. when you can see is, on that recent rally, look how far we are from the 200 day moving average and look how well that lines up with the previous peak
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it it is an .eaningful have a little more in that i think people are prepared for. abigail: so not a huge correction but a little consolidation down to the moving average and perhaps backup. david: as long as we remain above the most recent swing highs, then by definition the trend is up. once we start to break through the previous lows, that is when you have to rethink it. abigail: there is one sector i am a little surprised at. i would not have can -- not have guessed consumer discretionary. david: the offense versus defense, what consumer discretionary does against consumer staples. what happens recently as though sectors have actually moved in
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lockstep. at the top of the list or the bottom of the list day-to-day. overall since may, a consistent downtrend come a downtrend line connecting the highs. amazon iseople think, a pretty good weight. equale are doing an weight version. overall, it has stabilized, but not in the market mode. there are plenty of stockpicking opportunities, things like footwear. nike at all-time highs. consumer staples, food products, like avm. 90 raging bull signal from these. abigail: you have to believe that apple, the biggest component to all the major averages. david: a huge benchmark day for any institutional money
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management against the s&p. what concerns me, if you look at the last couple of times that apple has been an ace rally and we have this divergence. prices going higher but the momentum slowing down. this is november of last year. going into the highs in the spring months. higher high-end lower peaks in rsi. something like disney looks a lot like this. health care a sector. all of those similar patterns. while not telling you the world is ending, be little cautious. it looks likeail: managers want to lock in gains. something bullish, maybe this year or 2020. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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the bank of japan seem to see a sizable impact from the stimulus measures introduced last week. shery ahn joining us with a little more on that. we have not seen major growth. they are tracking at about, what, 2%? is it possible we could see upward revisions? shery: they would come at a good time. we are expecting the economy to shrink this quarter. the boj saying we could see a sizable impact on the measures announced last week. the government says it would boost the economy 1.4 percentage points. last time we saw fiscal measures in 2016 couple we saw the forecast being upgraded to 1.3%. joe: help me out a little bit. i always get so confused about where they are with the stimulus. we talked about this recently, consumption, that there was a
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talk of minor stimulus that was not expected to happen. it feels like abenomics is sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. shery: this is a major package we have not seen since 2016. we saw the last tax hike five years ago or so. but its choreographed did not really help in terms of the impact on the economy. we are seeing all of these including monetary easing, fiscal stimulus measures. but, people saying, the structural reform ticking place fast enough. of course, we are talking about female labor force participation, corporate governance, and a lot of aggressive measures. they are saying, this is the part that has been most disappointing. romaine: what does this mean for the boj?
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shery: they now have a little more room to stand back. even before we saw the fiscal measures, there was more of a consensus that the doj is running out of ammunition. we are talking about their balance sheet 104% of gdp. you can imagine the side effects that the boj has been feeling throughout the economy, whether it is the banking sector there are people taking more risk. more we are seeing optimism over trade, it is still back in negative territory. joe: great stuff. for more on these stories, misstic "daybreak -- don't daybreak australia and daybreak asia. in addition to those u.k. elections, the ecb making its latest pay decision at 7:45 eastern. romaine: broadcom and adobe
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taylor: i'm taylor riggs in san francisco. in for emily chang. this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, here is an earful. listening to your most intimate moments. we will talk about the smart speaker praised and how comfortable consumers are with the conversations being transcribed. plus, facebook and google drop out of their canvas -- their 10 best
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