ben: if you think about the sequence of the trade war, we first wrote the usmca, when that was done, there was a trade war with china. it is a very effective policy tool to move forward. that nextkely face year. i don't think that is out of the market. one, uncertainty declines. .wo, there is economic recovery that is a big story year, global trade. scarlet: we have the market closing, s&p and nasdaq closing at new all-time highs hoping there will be a resolution to the phase one trade deal. oracle has just announced results as well. let's give you numbers. adjusted beating

expectations. looks like it misses the analyst estimate. that perhaps is why you are seeing a drop in after hours trading. services, $6.81 million, that is an adjusted number. revenue,arter adjusted you could say it misses or meets the average analyst estimate. right now, looks like investors see it as a miss. romaine: it will be interesting to see. we are still waiting for broadcom and adobe. a lot of these idiosyncratic stories linked to the macro. scarlet: in the meantime, let's talk to our market reporters. >> once again, i am taking a look at volatility. lots of funky things happening there, mainly the fact that it is coming back.

right now, the s&p 500 at a record high. the vix closed up three weeks in a row. this is something to pay attention to, because that happened in early january before the beginning of the volatility. that huge spike up for the vix in white, the s&p 500 falling at the beginning of the trade war, than the volatility to come in the end of 2018 with a similar situation. take a look at this. we see the vix up a third week in a row. in all-timeing highs. huge diversions. at some point, the volatility starting to build during the day will translate into daily volatility. volatility does breed volatility. not here now, but something to keep in mind for the future. >> jp morgan put out research pointing out there top 10 trades for 2020. i will give you a sense of how they are positioning and

approaching 2020. they are very risk on. they say it is likely we see a bottom in global pmi. they see continued strength in the labor market. what we are seeing on trade may help. they are overweight. what you are looking at is how jp morgan is positioning relative to benchmark. overweight equities, underweight bonds. within equities, the bank is saying you could buy japanese banks, also get exposure to german equities along with emerging markets. week, a contributor to the research report put out a note saying there is extraordinary opportunity in value and cyclical shares. you are looking at the ratio of the s&p 500 value index versus the s&p 500 growth index. we have seen a turn higher with value outperforming. jp morgan says this could be the early inning of a change back.

>> i am focused on the trade story. shares of qualcomm closed ahead of earnings you out shortly. the number we are looking for is the annual revenue forecast. give forward guidance, so that number for next year gives us a looking class into help broadcom sees the macroenvironment -- how broadcom sees the macroenvironment. it is a great bellwether for the chip industry. 50% of its chip sales are to china for manufactured goods. the philadelphia semiconductor index up 56% year-to-date, it's best annual gains in a decade. it was because of the trade war impact. looking forward to 2020, we want to know if those trade concerns

are starting to dissipate and if we will see any upside from 5g spending. a note of caution on the number. some analysts include a contribution from symantec and some do not. aligning the number with consensus will need to wait for more commentary. romaine: thanks to everyone on the markets team. 37 --ng news the boeing 737 max, american airlines saying it is going to phase the boeing 737 max back into its flight schedule in early april. it originally said it would do that in march. it is pushing that back by about a month. that follows what we have heard from other airlines. shares were down 1% at the close. 21% since the record high going back to march. scarlet: we also have a earnings from adobe. -- revenue for the

, beating2.99 billion the average analyst estimate of $2.97 billion. as for the outlook, this quarter, adobe sees revenue missing the mark there. see his adjusted 2.23, in line with the average analyst estimate. romaine: still with us is andmberg news senior editor macro strategist global director. we are talking about the macro picture. when we look at earnings and where we have been this past year, we see revenue growth slow, margin compression. if trade does provide economic catalyst, how fast do you think that could translate into an improvement in corporate earnings? that yourample

colleague showed, the semiconductor index, it is a good point there. there is a lot of catch-up for those companies to make in this trade war phase and the earnings to recover as a result. the catalyst is that a lot of international companies were affected by the uncertainty of trade and people scaling back. i think that is when it comes to earnings, that investment restarts. earnings could pick up. that is probably the major impact, as opposed to some of these issues that are not in .articular companies it was clearly an inventory correction globally. off, a excess is worked lot of companies can restart, therefore you see earnings acceleration. joe: mike, i want to ask you about the same topic. we were talking about what is and priced in. if there is a tree deal, there

is hope that that creates some positive impulse to invest, maybe decisions that have been delayed will move forward. how much of that has to happen or is priced in or expected to happen to justify the levels of the market? look at what happened this year, there is that catchphrase growth at a reasonable price. what you saw this year was defense at and unreasonable price. people wanted to stay in the stock market but they bit off those defensive sectors. if you look at the s&p compared to small caps, compared to international stocks, we talked about emerging-market outperformance, the s&p is the defensive place if you must be in stocks. if we get all the stuff we are talking about, it affects the present positioning. s&p backn within the

tomorrow cyclical, which is what most of the value stocks were. financial, raw material producers. the trade war is obviously the story of the day. a really interesting story that is not getting enough talked had ais -- bloomberg story about how there is a discussion about the negative consequences of negative rates before she went out and did the press conference. it sounded like they did not want her to start talking right the factght away but that they are discussing that, there is this gallery of people discussing negative rates. that that is on their radar is a rate -- is a story to watch. those beaten-down european banks being the ground zero. scarlet: that is a really good point. it seemed like she did not want to make waves with a news conference. it is more akin to watch this space because something could happen there. ben: i think they are worried

about the effect of negative rates. if you remember why they put them in place was for insurance against inflation. we have not really got deflation in europe. story isive rates being based upon deflation fears that could be changing. in other words, they could take that back, but you have to remember that you can't do it by the central bank suddenly changing its exchange rate, reversing the negative rate will take a number of years. it is all about uncharted territory and how you unwind on extraordinary measures. thank you. appreciate it. that does it for the closing bell. "what'd you miss?" is up next where we will be examining the u.s. and china striking the principles of a trade deal. nothing confirmed yet. we are waiting for the

president's final approval. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, i am remain bostick. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. joe: i am joe weisenthal. hitting ahe s&p 500 record high after optimism on a trade deal. a trade breakthrough, u.s. and china negotiators are said to have reached terms of a trade one deal. now we wait for president trump to sign on. in a the new ecb chief positive note, signaling the end --sight for the euro dome

euro zone economic slowdown. the fate of boris johnson jeremy corbyn. we begin with today's apparent trade breakthrough, the u.s. and china have reached an agreement on the first phase of a trade talk. now all it needs is trump's approval. uncertainty has been just one of the concerns weighing on the global economy. joining us now, acting chief economist for wells fargo securities in charlotte, north carolina. thank you for joining us. impulse of a positive could we see to investments if it looks like the fear of more tariffs or a rollback of the existing tariffs would go away? >> if you look right now, business fixed investment spending on a year-over-year basis is more or less flat.

how much upside do we have? that really depends on the details of this trade war. if all we are talking about is, we are not going to put 15% tariffs on, the chinese are billion dollars of soybeans, that's kind of a mini deal. i don't think that is a huge upside. i think you need a comprehensive deal, we get what we want, they promise not to steal intellectual property anymore, you get a complete rollback of tariffs. that would be the best outcome. we have to wait and see the details here. maybe you are looking at mid single-digit growth in terms of business spending. in terms of a really comprehensive sort of trade deal. scarlet: we will be waiting for a while because everybody is in agreement media that the -- in agreement on the idea that the

thorny details need to be worked out. what about the usmca? we know that everyone in that agreement has signed off on it. of course it needs to be signed, but does that have a bigger impact on forecasts for the u.s.? be, it guess there would kind of eliminates a potential negative. i don't think that has a huge impact in terms of what it is going to mean for investment going forward. i think it is more marginal. the fact that we do have something that replaces nafta, have a framework there, means that businesses don't have to cut back. i don't think this will put rocket fuel in terms of business spending. obviously, there was a lot of concern about just how sustained this economic expansion can be. this is the longest continuous expansion we have seen in a century. we just hit the 10 year mark

without a recession. the first time that has happened in quite some time. when you look at the u.s. economy and you look at some of the imbalances out there, is there anything that gives you concerned that this economic expansion could be derailed in the near-term? jay: there is not a huge economic imbalances right now when you look around the economy. this is not 2007, housing bubble. it is probably not 1999 in terms of tech bubble. the thing that gives me a little bit of concern is the fact that the financial health of the business sector, nonfinancial corporate sector, is deteriorating over the last few years. look at the operating earnings of the s&p 500 in the third quarter. it is essentially flat year-over-year. it is not like this is going to cause a recession in and of itself anytime soon, but get sok

out there and it causes growth to slow even further, businesses orderstart to retrench in to protect their bottom lines. they start to cut back on business investment spending, they potentially could lay people off, then you start to have issues. it is not like we are looking at that and saying that is going to cause a recession. notfact is, the economy is as resilient today as a few years ago and if you have a shock and growth slows, you could start to see some of this retrenching. joe: quick question about the federal reserve -- powell making it clear at the bar for a rate hike is high. we know the market likes to hear this. we know that stocks like the idea that the fed is not going to tap the brakes. is it as a significant for the real economy? jay: i think it is more of a

market story. the whole thing is, they are not going to do anything that is going to, at this point, derail the expansion. they are not going to over tighten. they are going to over stimulate the economy by keeping rates too low for too long rather than the other way around. the fed wants to see higher inflation. a year from now, the inflation rate is 2.5%. i think they are happy with that. it wants to get inflation expectations higher. they are going to make a policy mistake anytime soon, they are going to over stimulate rather than choke it off. scarlet: jay bryson, thank you so much. cosco has just reported results, first quarter eps beating the highest estimate, but that does include a $.17 tax benefit.

4.3%,able sales was up slightly higher than what was expected, 4.2%. joe: and we have earnings out from semiconductor company broadcom. that company moving higher after hours. reporting net revenue of 5.7 $6 billion. that is a little ahead of expectations. $5.76 billion.of that is a little ahead of expectations. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: u.s. negotiators have reached the terms of a deal with china, according to bloomberg reporters.

that agreement awaiting removal from president trump, according to people familiar with the plans. that could come as soon as this afternoon. for more insight, let's bring in bloomberg's senior trade reporter from washington, as well as limerick technology reporter mark gurman. we are still waiting for official word from the white house. what is going on in washington? >> we are told this meeting between donald trump and trade advisors has broken up in the last half hour or so. we are waiting for the smoke signals. whitesmoke, black smoke, waiting for the president to sign off on this. the big news today is that the u.s. and china, at least at the negotiating level, got a deal. that is something we have been waiting for weeks now. on october 11, president trump announced the handshake agreement on a phase one deal and said it would take 3-5 weeks to get it down on paper.

it is taking closer to nine weeks to do that. we are here and that is a big deal. somelements of that are stepped up agricultural purchases by the chinese, limits on intellectual property, and rolling back existing tariffs in exchange for china meeting benchmarks. as far as a lot of tech companies are concerned, we expect these december 15 tariffs going into effect on smart phones, laptops, and kids toys before christmas. we expect those not to go into effect. joe: mark, you heard shawn talking about the impact on tech companies. no tech company is more emblematic of the u.s. china trade relationship than apple. how high are the stakes? mark: that is exactly right. the stakes for apple are enormous.

the math on a 15% tariff is basically an average of $150 levy on each iphone produced in china, which is 99% of iphones. apple gets about 40% of its revenue in the united states and we are talking about nearly $100 billion per year that the impact would be placed on that amount of money, which would result in 10 and $20 billion. apple is what doing everything -- apple is watching and doing everything it can to help push the u.s. government toward striking a deal. cook has been front and center in trying to make the point to the president. how theretalked about are different people advising

the president on trade. advisor.arro, senior who is whispering in president trump's year? depending on who is whispering, we have a better idea of who -- of what the deal might compass. peter navarro is a big china hawk. shawn: exactly. all the whispering has been happening in recent weeks. what happened today was clearing of throats. robert lighthizer went into this withng with a lot of cred the president. she delivered the deal with the democrats that got the usmca over that semifinal hurdle. one who has been leading these talks with the chinese, getting on the phone late at night to talk to his chinese counterpart. part of the reason he has the credibility he has with the president is that he has been a china hawk, but also that he is

a details guy. less of an ideologue when it comes to china than peter navarro. clearly, peter navarro has an important voice in the white house. we will have to see what shakes out the coming weeks. it looks like robert lighthizer is driving the show. romaine: when we talk about the disruption that this trade war has caused to the supply chain, particularly for apple, is there some sense that apple and other u.s. companies that operate they in manufacturing -- their manufacturing operations, could things revert back to the way they were before are they looking outside china? mark: i don't think this will shift anyone from moving back to china. i think the understand it is going to be volatile for years to come, whether or not there is this year -- this deal. scarlet: well said. mark gurman in los angeles and shawn donnan. thank you so much. growthming up, future

versus earnings. we talked to advisors. ♪

♪ >> i am mark crumpton with first word news. bipartisaneached a deal to avoid a government shutdown. there is an agreement on all 12 spending bills needed to fully fund the government ahead at the december 20 deadline. the spending measures need approval of both chambers of congress and president trump. the house judiciary committee argued today ahead of voting to send impeachment charges against president trump to the full house. confidentsi sounded democrats will have the votes to impeach the president next week,

but said it was up to individual lawmakers to weigh the evidence and decide for themselves. republican seem unwavering in their opposition to impeach the president, rejecting jim jordan's amendment that would have eliminated the first article of impeachment, which accuses the president of abuse of power. a day after the eu's new chief unveiled a master plan for climate neutrality, the question remains about the ability to by 2020.deal three eastern states are unconvinced and do not back the plan. their support is needed to win approval. an eu official says the climate topic triggered intense but good discussions. finland's prime minister spoke to reporters about the climate issue. forward for the

interesting discussions today. we have big issues we have to decide. , a ambitious climate goals new generation is expecting us to act and we have to fulfill the expectations of the people. >> meantime at the united nation sponsored summit, the secretary general warned failure to tackle global economic warming could result in disaster, saying it would only allow the "survival of the richest." new jersey officials are providing more details into tuesday's deadly shooting in jersey city. what we have collected so far, including recent witness interviews, we believe the suspects held views

that reflected hatred of the jewish people. as well as a hatred of law enforcement. added they general are investigating the attack as an act of domestic terrorism. the pentagon said note new international military students will come to the u.s. for training until new screening procedures are in place. the decision comes in the wake of a deadly shooting by a saudi arabian aviation trainee at a florida naval base. -- three eight sailors and injured eight others. investigators are trying to determine whether he acted alone. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. not, it isit or still earnings season. here are the numbers. after it beatower

estimates, but thanks to a tax benefit. broadcom and adobe moving higher. oracle down 2% after missing analyst estimates unflagging licenses. let's stick with earnings and the affect on corporate management. corporate leaders manage short-term results such as quarterly earnings, but it can come at the expense of long-term interests. our next guest wrote a book on this. with us. his book is set for release next month. him, presidento trump has signed off on the u.s.-china trade deal to avert the december tariffs. those december 15 tariffs will not come into effect. no signatures have been put to paper. it is not completely official,

but the president has agreed to this u.s.-china trade deal in principle. phase one, that is. joe: it is kind of phase everything for the market. these are serious long-term structural issues about the relationship. are intohink people them as they are about the tariffs. if the tariffs are off the table, questions about ip, industrial policy can fade for now. aboute: it is also progress. phase one is a sign they are still talking. that is with the market wanted to see. >> were not saying much reaction and markets. looking at futures, not much movement. we had the dow with intraday record highs. the 10 year yield and two-year yield higher. no movement there.

romaine: that is the question, how much is priced in. how much of the gains have been front run in this for be a sell the news type of thing. joe: we have had this big rally. we have been rallying since early october when trump said they were close to phase one. all along through all the setbacks, these naysayers who said there was never going to be a deal, the market is stupid for believing there will be a deal, people were so naïve, and yet here we are. -- appearsls to be to be a deal trump has signed off on. in the end, -- fairness, a lot of that criticism was early on when this is supposed to be one big trade deal, not three phases. this has been broken up into bite-size pieces that gave the trump administration more runway

to do something. >> we also don't know what is in this phase one trade deal. heard numbers attached to agricultural purchases china will make. china had pushed back against specifying an exact number. they want to make sure they have some leverage as well. it is unlikely the president will never bring up tariffs again with china. let's continue the trade discussion and bring in scott kennedy. he joins us now from washington. how significant is the president signing off in principle on this u.s.-china trade deal that we have not gotten to a finalization where the two sides are meeting and they do the big handshakes are money? -- handshake ceremony? >> obviously it is a big deal. we have been in this trade war for 18 months with a lot of ups and downs, fall starts, false

hopes, and it looks like they have achieved some amount of progress. we don't know what it will be until we see some text, but the trump administration deserves to celebrate for a few days for what they have been able to achieve, and maybe they will get some sleep now. we will need to see the text to know how significant this is long-term. romaine: that's a good point. we know there will be a short-term reaction, optimism, if you will, but the question is what's going to be the economic impact, market impact longer-term for phase one, particularly if we don't get anything out of phase two before the 2020 election? showse of the recent data bilateral trade between the u.s. and china has fallen dramatically by double digits as much as 25% in 2019. there has been some movement of supply chain, venture capital

has fallen off in both directions, and the big question is will investors see this as a sign the trade war is over and we will see a rollback of big discussions about the coupling, or given how much swinging has occurred both ways and the unpredicted building of the trump administration, still readjust their investment strategies as a result? we just don't know. joe: i was going to go exactly there with the question. maybe we get no tariffs, that's great. the market likes it. couple ofs, the last years have been characterized by constant reminders of how uncertain the entire global trading system is. everybody can talk about the tweet risks. --you think this

could. i was in china last week. there by foreign companies in china, as well as chinese private companies continues to deteriorate throughout. people were really depressed the past few days. this might cheer them up a little bit, but in addition to -- to that, you have something coming to a halt. if you deciding where to put your semiconductor fab, who to work with for new autonomous vehicles, i think you are still not convinced the coast is clear. >> the coast is not clear. the negotiators will have to go back to the table and discuss what is to come in phase two and

phase three. what does robert lighthizer want to achieve in phase two and what is he likely to achieve? >> first, they will need to implement this agreement. i'm sure that will occupy a large part of the agenda for 2020. then the question is can they start to tackle those structural issues like subsidies. that is the biggest issue that did not make it into the phase i one deal. sense there won't be a new agreement in 2020, probably not even expectations of one. let's see if they can implement this on both sides and if that creates a glide path in 2021 for progress on that, or will they turn towards multilateral solutions before they try to engage china on subsidies? i think phase two, we should not put too much into that right

now. romaine: i'm glad you brought up tpp. this potential agreement comes basically the same week the wto is shut down, call it that if you will. so how do we talk about enforcement? is the u.s. capable of enforcing a trade deal with china on its own unilaterally, or do we need a unilateral -- multilateral body to oversee this? , it ishe short-term capable of counting what imports in both directions look like, investment, whether ip rights are better enforced by the if you want a sustainable relationship over the long-term where chinese industrial policy is limited and there is a much more level playing field in china in

markets around the world, it will require collaboration with other countries, wto, other agreements. starting toust negotiate an e-commerce agreement. for a little while, this can be the u.s., but long-term, everyone will be looking for institutional, large changes. joe: thank you scott kennedy of the center for international studies. , presidenting us now trump has signed off on a trade agreement with china to avert the tariffs set for december 15. we have more next. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

♪

bloomberg it is reporting president trump has signed off on a trade agreement with china to avert the tariffs set for december 15. let's bring in our reporter from los angeles with the latest. talk us through what we know so far. the tariffs will not go into effect. what about the other tariffs or parts of the trade deal that had been trumpeted for so long? >> these are great questions. not beeno has following the trade will might think they had a phase one trade deal. i think what is different and we will hopefully get more details about today is there is a substance to the agreement and something is on paper and the two sides have agreed to the specifics of this phase one deal. this comes ahead of this deadline on sunday when the u.s. is supposed to put 15% tariffs on the rest of chinese imports

into the u.s., which would have been consequential for both economies. wehink the details are what are waiting to hear back on. we think it will be agricultural purchases by china, potentially a further scaling back of existing tariffs, but as the details come out, we will have to see what trump really did agree to. romaine: we know agriculture has been the focus and a lot of these talks. how much of a boost will we get? how much with the u.s. get with regard to agricultural purchases , especially considering we have seen a lot of pain, particularly for soybean and corn farmers? >> absolutely. there is a lot of catching up to do. purchaser ofig soybeans and other u.s. farming products before this trade war took effect. at one point, there was a real

rut where china was not buying what it used to, so key to this deal perhaps performers will be not just china purchasing what they did pre-trade war levels, but is this going to be a scale up in purchases? this is going to be a win or sickly back to the status quo? joe: this is phase one. we don't know what will happen with phase ii or phase three. are there any other deadlines or anything down the road that will cause markets to be anxious, or will it be the typical things going badly or good, but nothing people have to worry about? >> the number one thing that will be held over the hold , willent, the dark cloud be the trump administration once an enforcement mechanism where they can put tariffs back in ifce, almost automatically,

china backtracks on its commitments. that might be a great area or a blurry line, so that threat of tariffs, whether an enforcement mechanism or trump himself and his use of twitter to threaten tariffs, that will still be over this entire agreement. for u.s. distances in china that will put them on a bit of shaky footing as long as trump is the president. ourine: we want to bring in correspondent in washington following the story for some time. you have been covering this and have traveled around the world covering this. is this going to be a good deal for the chinese? a i think this looks like good deal from the chinese point

of view. it looks like they will get a rollback of existing tariffs, something they have been pushing for since the beginning of the year. it is one of the reasons talks fell apart in may. they are committing to fairly little here. the agricultural purchases are things they need, those are things that will see him go back to what they were purchasing before the trade war erected. -- erupted. at the same time, they have diversified supply chains to argentina and brazil.

that has put them in a bad place in some ways. property, those are things the chinese have been announcing themselves, partly because they are creating more intellectual property, and there is a clambering within china for protecting that ip. haveinal point is they avoided the hardest economic reforms donald trump insisted on when he launched this in 2017. they will not be changing the system of subsidies they have in place. they will not be changing the behavior of the state owned enterprises, all of those things that a lot of american businesses wanted. up,he way this is shaping if the u.s. does not go forward with the december 15 tariffs, it looks more like a truce than a rollback. we have not heard anything yet about rolling back existing tariffs have we? >> what we have been here in recent days is you take the tariffs in place and rollback the rate on those tariffs, so you would still have tariffs on 360 billion dollars of imports from china, but the rate which is now between 15% and 25% would potentially be half of that.

joe: great stuff. we appreciate it. a reminder, coming up in a few

minutes, special coverage of the u.k. general election at 5:00 p.m. eastern. this is bloomberg. ♪ p.m. eastern. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> the big news is the president

has signed off on a so called phase one trade deal with china. place thenot put into december 15 round of tariffs and may reduce existing tariffs on chinese products. nothing has been signed yet. they are trying to work out these details. we haven't heard anything. it makes you wonder what the negotiations are and what we end up with with. joe: for this market, they just don't want to see the tariffs. romaine: it will be interesting

to see what happens tomorrow morning. , tune intoeantime our special coverage of the u.k. election tonight at 5:00 p.m. romaine: russia set to announce it's great tomorrow. >> that does it for "what'd you miss?" ♪ ♪ into the closeo of polls in the u.k.. her countdown tonight, right now. go until the close of polls in the u.k. your countdown tonight, right now. ♪ gethe u.k. decides, to brexit done or a hard left turn.

pound near march highs as traders repaired to reprice the u.k. president trump approves a trade deal with china, so will the brexit election be a cliff? >> good evening from london. we are live from the city of london. we have your coverage of the x of polls. -- exited polls. in the meantime, a lot of news on the trade. both are in the mix this evening. >> the president cannot be eclipsed by the british election. first, we are about to get in exited poll. >> if it is a majority, we can all go to bed, right? up until 6:00. >> we can head for the exits. >> we've had so many democratic events.

this is billed as the biggest in a generation. 2015, 2016, 2017, and now 2019. this is the second election since the referendum. edging away from the hard brexit risk. we are waiting to see with the next couple of minutes tells us. risk could beexit priced and quickly. if forced johnson wins a the brexiteers are still in control. is one hard brexit could be back on the table. anna: a lot of writing on it. -- riding on it. this is just an exit pole. i hope they have the lights on. they are working out see if i

see what these are likely to look like. this is what they are likely to look like. through all ofk the seats individually. paule last time the exit came out it was incredibly accurate. anna: it was absolutely accurate. polls have closed in the u.k. get these to the broadcasters. a forecast majority for the johnsons conservatives. 650.ng 368 seats out of seats.party winning 191 so it goes on. that would be the poll showin