see what these are likely to look like. this is what they are likely to look like. through all ofk the seats individually. paule last time the exit came out it was incredibly accurate. anna: it was absolutely accurate. polls have closed in the u.k. get these to the broadcasters. a forecast majority for the johnsons conservatives. 650.ng 368 seats out of seats.party winning 191 so it goes on. that would be the poll showing the consensus winning 368 seats

out of 650. theresa may had only 317. that would be better than thatcher in 1979 and similar to the first mrp poll. a 48 seat potentially majority coming through. it will be a big majority. may be forced johnson has the option of taking a more flexible approach to the next round of negotiations. >> cable up. back to 1.33. the average post-brexit referendum is 1.30. we are not a million miles away from that. we have avoided the hard edged story if this is the accurate result. is this? if we get past this tonight and

move on of a conservative majority of this kind of size and think about how do we negotiate a trade deal with any use, that will be the next phase. anna: it would give him the flexibility to go back on a couple of brexit pledges. he could ignore the brexiteers. yes, it was in the manifesto there would be no extension, but if you have this kind of majority, getting a trade deal any year will be hard. this will give them the potentially the flexibility. the bring in some guests now. you set next to me for the last

minute and a half and all i heard was, wow. >> incredible. to see 368 is incredible. some context. this exit poll tends to get it wrong by 15 seats maximum. to get this wrong, it has to be a new historical error. the pound at 1.34. that is a big move. these of the levels we were looking for. we will probably stay here. >> is that the best part, the exit poll? >> it is. wow, i heardu said you hit send. need to see how these results pan out. it will be a shame if the poll is wrong. we will have to wait and see if .hey match up a bit

>> andrew hawkins, your thoughts? >> i think your colleague and some that up with the word wow. this is a historic victory. you have to go back 32 years to even find an exit poll that projected a conservative victory with an overall majority. it is that spectacular. around 8%, 9% on the final closing stages of the campaign, and what this suggests is a lot of the considering voting tactically have had second thoughts. ,t looks as if a lot of voters

it looks like organism will be ismd after this -- corbyn will be dead after this. chance the exit poll is thrown off by the fact we are witnessing families in parts of the country that have voted one way, deciding to vote another. is there some disconnect with history we need to be aware of? is aah, i think that

sensible word of caution, although the exit poll methodology in one respect gets better and easier as time goes on, because it compares the results with the way that seat performed two years ago, the way it performed four years ago. that said, this has been an extraordinary election. we have seen unprecedented levels of uncertainty, undecideds, tactical voters. beens also

described as an ugly baby contest. we know boris johnson is distrusted, often by his own loathedjeremy corbyn is in northern labour party seats.

where you are seeing constituencies where there is a single remain candidate versus several leave candidates, it is much much harder to forecast the

outcome than was the case two years ago. this is a much more complex the exit but poll has conducted 20,000 in 104 polling stations. this is as good as polling gifts. cable, 1.3450. if this is the result, how limited is the upside going into

2020? >> short-term is much harder. longer-term, you have this u.s.-china trade deal may be making progress. we have slower data in the u.s. than the rest of the world. year, 1.40,ext 1.41. short-term, this level, i was looking at most 1.35. we might see some proper taking from short-term players, but it

is now by on dips. the was reading some of stuff bloomberg was writing earlier on. perhaps that can provide some resistance at that level.

if we were to break through these key technical levels, what does the marketing positioning story look like? >> we had $2 billion of short

positioning as of last tuesday. we looked at all the volumes of all options and saw a lot of hedging today and yesterday for the jeremy corbyn scenario. >> they have gone down pretty sharply. that is why this momentum will be sustained. i think 1.34 will be a support level. i think folks are taking a bit of profit. whether we go higher, i am doubtful. just to bring you back in the conversation, no seats for the brexit party. maybe that was foreseen, either a direct result of forced johnson strategy. given upr what he has this out the window seats in the

north. there are dozens of tory party conservative seats around where the labour party was trying to defend thin majorities. where those voters have voted to eu in 2016, the jeremy corbyn equivocation over the plan cost y's brexit him numerous votes. when we come to look at the results of this election over weeks, we will probably faraj's decision

not to stand against the was critical here. on to theves hung vast majority of leave voters , while thecountry remaining vote is often split not just labor, but liberal democrats, and part of that boat has gone to the conservatives. that is how the conservatives was iffy exit poll is to be believed. jonathan: let's talk about the next couple of hours. the seat you think we should be focusing on, the labour party leave seats, the labour party strongholds, what do we need to be looking for in the next couple of hours? seatsre are some totemic held by labor. you think a ball the north of england -- the one region in the north of england. that is the seat that will tell us about the psychology of labour party voters in lead seats. again, another scout the conservatives would have taken from labor. coast south, the south has been held narrowly by liberal democrats. that will tell us about the democrats toberal

hang onto those strongholds in the south. we will see some conservative losses as well. richmond park in london held by goldsmith, that is a strong remain c. -- remain seat. the results will tell us a lot. the other thing to watch tonight , when we look at the long-term future, and this really will be a political earthquake as far as is concerned, but where does labour go from here? have replaced the leader with a hard-line marxist, and that leader has more candidates across the country, so the party willry labour look different after this. what happensis over the long term, what happens party, importantly who come second in a lot of the seats the conservatives are winning? will be fighting hard to make up ground the next time around. we hope to god it won't be for another five years.

>> yes, that would be nice. what happens not when it comes to the brexit process timeline we are looking at? is trying to deliver brexit on the back end of january but then what? we have had the summit start. conclusions will be tomorrow morning. we had a report this morning as well. from day one of this new we will have tough talks with the eu. the timeline is you have queen's month, ater this second reading, not really .arket events what will be market moving is headlines from february. have brexit on january clear.t seems that won't be market moving. if those talks go poorly and we get to july and don't extend the

transition and still sticking to extend,ger we will not but it will creep back up, but that is q3 onward. jonathan: i think this idea that

there is this wall of capital waiting to come back into the u.k. if we can get these issues dealt with. how realistic is that s ♪

welcome back. welcome to our listeners on bloomberg tv and bloomberg radio, this is a u.k. election special, "brexit and beyond." we spent the last poll -- we spent the last 40 minutes exit poll,he conservatives winning 30's -- 368 seats, an 80-seat majority, strong majority, pound jumping more than 2% versus the dollar in an emphatic response, up by 2.64% right now. ian, good to get your take on this, we have ed lines around trade, which we will get to. ian, let me get your take on the the u.k.tion -- election. the big majority, what is this mean if the exit bowl comes to

life -- the exit poll comes to life force? will change matters dramatically when we see the actual result. the polls won't be off by that much. is therehat it means is a lot of independence for a fairly nonideological boris johnson to pick's cabinet and get a brags he think he can get itself, mucheans less of a change from where we may he's with theresa a vastly more talented -- theresa may. he is a vastly more talented proposition -- politician. and he fought an actual victory the mostike farr unsuitable candidate we have seen of the u.k. and generations on domestic policy, foreign policy, electioneering. jeremy corbyn's negatives were staggering and i think the polls

will reflect that. >> it will be painful listening on the bloomberg radio on the drive home, thinking about what this means for the u.s. election, someone on the far left taking on a populist here in the u.k.. is there a read here for 2020? ian: no. corbyn makes bernie sanders look like tony blair. draw, corbyn can't didn't even have a perspective on this election. anti-semitism clearly heard it. that's not like ilhan omar is running for president of the u.s., it is bernie sanders, elizabeth warren, and neither of them on the front rotors by the way in the u.s.. more likely in the u.s. that you potentially have a brokered convention, and it is hard to imagine their the bernie sanders is going to get the nomination. it doesn't look likely that you are going to have a hard-left candidate in the united states. if you did, it wouldn't look

like corbyn. so i wouldn't take lessons away. u.k., the economy has been underperforming and boris johnson still manages to win with what looks like an 86-seat majority. in the united states, the economy is doing quite well, thank you very much. but we always have what most in -- what most certainly will be an impeachment of donald trump in the house. it is an unprecedented election, but for different reasons and what we are seeing in the u.k.. we adjust starting to see the australian bull market waking up, yields moving sharply to the upside, 12 basis points, fairly substantial move. part of that is mid to going to be what is happening in the u.k., but a bigger part is what we are learning about this trade deal the president has signed off on. what is your assessment of what the deal is likely to look like?

i think simply talking about the president signing off on a deal is one thing, talking about the details is going to be market critical. think more important than details of the deal is the fact that markets truly believe, accurately in my view, that trump does not have a lot more ammunition in the run-up to to hit the chinese on u.s. consumer durables. he doesn't want this to hit the pocketbook of the average american, doesn't want it to hit the markets, doesn't wanted to hit red state farmers. the chinese have called his bluff on that successfully. so even if this deal doesn't end up being inked in the coming weeks, even if it drags on, the fact is that nobody believes we are likely to see much escalation on the trade front trump towards the chinese.

and clearly if that is the case, the chinese are not going to react with their own. and i think that makes markets much more comfortable. i thought we first saw a clear sign of that when trump decided last week he was going to give kushner, his son-in-law, part of this portfolio. and that is not because jared is suddenly taking over china. it is because trump wanted to make sure hardliners around him in the white house had oversight, so he could get a deal done. anyone who was a real insider around the white house understood that was a message, that no matter where the chinese were, trump wanted to make an announcement. don't make much of the actual text of the deal. today's more meaningful about what we do or don't see in the coming weeks. trade deal phase i as it is, it is something that has been moving the markets the last 24 hours. what is the assessment in the white house, do you think, that a deal around phase one makes better political calculus than further trade tension?

you think that is what we are getting ahead of 2020? ian: no question. trump is in let's make a deal mode all over the world, despite north koreans are testing more missiles and telling him until he has christmas or else. he is still pushing for third summit. the taliban, he wants to meet with you and invite you to camp david during 9/11. i make a trait on thanks -- i make a trip on thanksgiving and i want to deal. i'm ready for a phone call with the iranian president, let's n broker it. its a very different environment. trump doesn't want to military conflict. and he sees that in a run-up to the election, as an impeached president the economy is something going strong for him, and dealmaking is something he wants to lay into. it is hard to accomplish in many places, but trump is willing to make the biggest possible announcement around the smallest possible deals. and that actually plays pretty

well for him, and the markets are riding along with it. so it strikes me that first quarter, second quarter, we are going to continue to see all sorts of moves from president trump trying to pump the market up in the run-up to the election. >> we have still got ian bremmer. about, i'df thinking be curious about your take on inflating the u.k. story with the trade story more broadly. looking at this result out of the u.k. today, how will that change the relationship, the dynamic between the u.k. and the united states? given the fact that we are running into 2020, and boris johnson is going to need to put global trade deals together, how optimistic should we be about some sort of relationship with the united states, and what you see that looking like? ian: we would've gotten

pessimistic if corbyn had come in, not just uncertainty around brexit, but it would've broken intelligence sharing between the u.s. and u.k. almost overnight. it would have been very negative for trade. but we are going to see consistency from boris johnson. keep in mind, boris johnson has been very different from the united states on china, on huawei, on 5g. he will continue to do that because he felt like he really needs a stronger relationship with the chinese economically. drop won't like this. so it is not as if they are friends and it is going to lead to a slamdunk trade relationship. also keep in mind that while it looks like we are moving toward ratification of the u.s.-mexico-canada deal, that came close to being stymied this year. new trade dealers are -- deals are not popular in congress right now. i don't think he is going to be able to lined everything up over the next few months, and certainly not least of which the united states would be a complicated deal to put together.

but i do think that the noise when they do meet in a summit will be pretty positive, that will be true on the sidelines of g7, g20, nato meetings, but also the first proper, bilateral storm -- bilateral summit we see between the two leaders. at the very least, we will see that the takeaways on trade will be seen as positive, as showing progress. but i don't think anyone is expecting that in early 2020, mid-2020, we will have a deal ready to go. bremmer, president of the eurasia group, joining us with his thoughts on the brexit polls from the u.k. election and talking trade. is guntram wolff, with us from brussels. good to speak to you. i'm looking at twitter comments from somebody who until recently was a spokesperson for the prime minister, allison donnelly, saying this result makes a

softer brexit much more likely. forou think there is room that to happen in the relationship with brussels? yes, i think the first point to make is that brussels is prepared to deal. there is a deal on the table and i think brussels now, i'm pretty sure, is looking to see that this deal is going to get ratified in the united kingdom so that we can move to the next so inof the relations, other words the united kingdom will leave by the end of january, and then the more disciplined part starts, which is crafting a new future relationship, and the real question here is, how close is that relation going to be? and how quickly can it be implemented? and that is going to be the main debate going forward. >> let's talk about how quickly.

it took the canadians seven years in a very, very different situation, with the u.k. involved. in your estimation, how long will this kind of thing take? >> it depends on many factors. the first point is that they are very close at the moment. the u.k. ndu have the same regulatory environment, so it is not as if we are debating or negotiating a deal on all kinds of things where standards are massively different, however, the big concern on the european side, as well as the british side, will be how to deal with future regulatory regulatory so if one diverges substantially from the other on regulation, what kind of mechanisms do you have? that is going to be difficult debate, especially if the eu suspects the u.k. will want to deregulate massively its economy. on the third important point is

deals,about other trade and in particular the u.k. approach to china. if the u.k. wants to close, get a closer relation with china and up its crownive jewel, if we can say so, i think we will see a lot of opposition on the european side, because like awill feel strategic ally of the overall game. and the same if the u.k. fosters a very close relation with the united states. i think that would also make it not trivial for the eu to come to a closer relation. >> are we still talking about the eu holding together when it comes to negotiation? we are now getting to a more critical phase, the final trade deal. this is where it potentially provides more room for an

agreement. you think the european union position is going to hold together? it has been remarkable how close the eu has been, and how close relations between the european company -- european countries have been, and how unified they have been. but i think you are right, the potential for different views across different countries in the future, and future relations, is bigger. but i think on some of the key principles, the e.u. will stick together. and the key principle is that the integrity of the single markets cannot be put in jeopardy. and it is also that regulatory racing to the bottom -- a regulatory race to the bottom would be completely unacceptable. on those points the eu will stick together. more difficult question is how they will stick together when it comes to china. >> i'm pleased to say our has dropped keene

by for some final thoughts. clarity in thed u.k. to move forward. tom: exactly. the smartest thing i heard tonight was from dr. bremmer. and that is, how does the far left in america just after what they have observed in the united kingdom? we have to say michael bloomberg is running for president, our founder and head of our media operation. but with that said, how do they adjust after what we have observed? today is an extraordinary day. about interesting talking the left of politics, but the -- because the left of politics may not have done well overnight, but it may reshape the agenda when it comes to investment spending and fiscal spending, and opens the conversation in the u.k. in a way that the tories might be more able to step into than they have in recent years. >> they had a very boring

manifesto into 3 billion pounds spending. its actually very small compared to the numbers we have seen from labor. in terms of this election, we had brexit to consider. the u.s.now that election will have a similar rallying cry for the right in the u.s.. because for the u.k., you had a, let's respect the referendum, story the anti-semitism and labor, and c, the most unpopular leader in corbyn. so it was really a big election for the left of center and the u.k.. if the left had had a different leader, if labor had a different leader it could've been a different outcome. >> has 2020 now changed? tom: absolutely. >> have you change your perspective when you look at the u.s. election, and you also have a trade deal being formed as well.

20/20 now is a very different place. tom: not so much different, but everybody will have to adjust going into the iowa caucuses, super tuesday march 3. there will be debates that will recalibrate this. they just announced a january debate this afternoon. there are three or four more debates. but what is extraordinary this evening is the good day president trump has had off his good friend, boris johnson. >> the chance this exit poll is wrong? news have got all the good in terms of a good exit poll. >> it could be wrong. [laughter] a could be wrong. you have good news in terms of the trade talks may be going to the next stage. so maybe we will see some actuals now. >> this is the exit poll, the tories winning 368 seats out of 650 according to the poll.

there will be cameras around the u.k. and many of those constituencies. we will be bringing you the latest as we get it. coming up, expecting results soon from strongholds of sondland in newcastle and economic analysis as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> election blowout. polls indicate a massive, 86-seat conservative majority. cable trading at 135 once more. thepresident trump approves trade deal with china to avert december tariffs. i'm anna edwards with guy johnson live from the city of london. guy: the pound i