every day, comcast business is helping businesses go beyond the expected. to do the extraordinary. take your business beyond. anna: this is brexit and beyond. johnson heads for a decisive election victory, the conservative look set for their biggest majority since margaret thatcher. the pound is enjoying its best session in nearly three years. way for taking the u.k. out of the european next month. willremy corbyn says he step down as labor leader and not lead another election campaign. where does the party go from here? global stocks have hit an

all-time high, president trump signed an interim trade deal ahead of that the agreement averts new tariffs on chinese goods that were due to kick in this weekend. >> it is 4:00 a.m. in the u.k. >> i am tracy alloway in hong kong. you are watching the pound this morning. >> as soon as we got the exit poll, that was six hours ago, suggested we would see a big majority for boris johnson. everything we have seen seems to confirm we all -- we will see a big majority for boris johnson. the pound goes higher, up by 2.4%.

the euro falls against the pound. we have not just been covering the brexit ramifications. there is also the trade narrative, progress between the u.s. and china. that is having an impact on agricultural products. >> there are two walls crumbling friday. one is the redwall and the other is the proverbial wall of worries for investors. look at the price of soybean futures, those are surging off the back of speculation that lots of add products will be bought by -- ag products will be bought by china. complex,e agricultural we are seeing prices surging and volumes surging.

that tells you something about the risk on sentiment and the market this morning. anna: one of our guests said in the last hour but it seems that christmas is coming early. let's get to one of the top stories, the u.k. elections. let's get the state of play. >> christmas is coming early for boris johnson as well. conservative majority. that is what we have seen playing out. it is 4:00 a.m. in london. we are cruising through the night as we -- as the results come in. over and i will show you the big takeaways. the first is how that red while has crumbled away. the former labour heartland's going conservative, some of them for the first time. the other one, jeremy corbyn stands down.

not immediately. he says there will be a period of transition. one of the people named as a potential successor has also lost her seat today. conversations to be had. the leader of the liberal democrats losing her seat in scotland. she was calling for brexit to be stopped. that was a very clear message from the liberal democrats. she was trying to position herself as the next pie minister of this country. -- next prime minister of this country. now she will not even be an mp. >> thank you so much for that. let's see what is going on with the markets. julia, what is the latest? >> it is risk on friday on the back of everything you guys have touched on. asian stocks are higher for a third session.

asia-pacific index at its highest level. this risk reflecting on move, having its biggest jump since february. holding at october 2018 highs. we have also been watching this big surge coming through in the onshore currency in china after we had that phase i trade deal signed. jumping the most in year. move youn won, a big are seeing, up 1.5 percent against the dollar. much.thank you very let's talk about the indian markets. the indian markets opening not long ago. what is the story? >> we are seeing a lot of gains in the indian markets. indian markets are shrugging off the disappointing economic macro dated we did see -- data we did

see with respect to manufacturing and production. the nifty advancing by well over half a percent. a lot of gains in the banking index. a little bit of further strengthening of the indian rupee against the dollar. gains all around. slightly turning out to be a very strong session this friday. anna: thank you very much. in global macro strategist. it is six minutes past 4:00 in the morning. our next guest is here with his analysis. people had this thought that the tories were going to win. as we look at this convoy of

boris johnson arriving back in london. updates tohe traffic others. coming into london, back to number 10 downing street, speaking to the conservative party and to address the country once again, no doubt. this was many people's base case. >> the size of the majority has been a big factor. if the revised estimate is correct, for certain markets, this would be a regime switch. fromn move toward, away political impasse and toward policy progress. markets can go back to pricing in some degree of normal government functioning, which is not been the case for a good two or three years.

a lot of correlations will start to rekindle with the interest rates and focus back on macro data. this is quite monument is. -- monumental. tracy: we are getting some reaction from u.s. president donald trump tweeting that it is looking like a big when for boris johnson in the u.k.. which is an unusual understatement for the u.s. president. does that emboldened boris johnson to pursue a harder brexit? how would that impact your investment strategy going forward? >> on the one hand, you're the argument that the majority -- you hear the argument that the majority will help speed the brexit hurdles. that maybe youis

are emboldened to take a harder negotiating tactic going into 2020. something that has kind of worked in november when the negotiation was pushed right to the brink. maybe the johnson camp sees that as vindication. johnsont 100 days of and what comes out for us in the next couple of weeks will be important to watch. the initial reaction, it is the fact you have a stable working government in the u.k., something that has not been the case for two or three years now. that is a seismic shift. anna: one of our previous guests was talking about the rating agencies citing a lack of electability in u.k. politics of late -- lack of predictability in u.k. politics of late.

like a government that -- there will be more disciplined perhaps and the path ahead looks clearer. >> policy uncertainty has been a drag on u.k. asset prices and investment activity. lifted that uncertainty seeing policies getting passed through, even if they are small. we will takeessage from this outcome if the size of the majority as is predicted. tracy: the pound has been stealing the limelight this morning. what do you see it trading as it begins on friday? is there a possibility we could get to 90 basis points?

had a 10-15 basis point move. not seen the same moves that the pound had. the actual outlook of the tory -- it is somewhat of a status quo. when you have fiscal prudence coupled with other factors keeping a lid on global bond tolds, it is very difficult pencil and another 25 or 50 basis points. independent of a cyclical recovery in the u.k. get: the varying views we on how hard or soft brexit might end up being from here. you have a big majority, a harder brexit. on the other, he has a big

majority and does not have to be pushed around by the extreme wings of his own party. he got rid of a lot of the moderates. very unclear as to exactly the kind of brexit boris johnson will try to craft. or just how much people want to diverge from eu standards -- how much he will want to diverge from eu standards. >> it is not the end of the world. we cannot look at things -- u.k. politics is going to be a big thing discussed in the next couple of weeks. as a limitedit factor. it is one of the reasons why bonds are quite high. resolution any big in brexit coming anytime soon.

caution. it is not the end of the story. 2020 will be an interesting sort of year. tracy: you are staying with us. we will get more of your thoughts in a few minutes. with tomck in mackenzie. >> christine lagarde launched her ecb with an optimistic message saying the eurozone economic slow down is showing signs of bottoming out. unlikelyate cuts are in the foreseeable future. a muted outlook for growth. the euro jumped initially. touchedamco him evaluation -- saudi aramco touched a valuation of 2 million

briefly. it comes after skeptical international investors said the company's true value is far lower. aramco is paying $64 million to banks who arranged the ipo. is removinglines the 737 max from its flight schedules through early april pushing the grounding of its best-selling jet for more than a year. southwest airlines also indicates further delay. aviation authorities in china are reviewing the software updates. hundreds of demonstrators gathered in central hong kong thursday night to mark six months since the city's protest movement began. pressure has increased this week for an independent probe of the police handling of the protests.

foreign experts brought in to quit.e global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am tom mackenzie. this is bloomberg. hit anglobal stocks all-time high as president trump signed an interim trade deal. we will have all the details next. this is bloomberg. ♪

tracy: it is a risk on day for markets after president trump signed off on a phase one trade deal. tariffs were due to kick in this weekend. let's get more with sharon chan. is this for real? are we actually going to get a deal this time around?

we have been in places like this before. >> yes, we have definitely seen this done before. this time, both signs are sending positive signals. it looks as if there could be a limit to deal. lots of questions still in the air. his china really going to purchase -- is china really going to purchase u.s. agricultural products? the foreign minister gave a lengthy speech this morning going over the policy over the year and he had specific words about the u.s., laying out all the things the u.s. has done that china is unhappy with. be --ms, anyway, he may laying out how they will not accept u.s. interference in china and being tough on the u.s. while signing the deal.

it seems to be pointing in the direction that something is going to happen. we do getuming official confirmation and the phase i deal does happen, what comes after that? sharon: then we move on to phase two. it seems like a much higher bar. it is when they will tackle things like subsidies to chinese companies, intellectual property theft, a lot of issues that beijing has been kick the can down the road on. that will be the real question whether the u.s. can extract those concessions from china, especially if they end up giving away a lot in terms of tariff relief in the first round. tracy: that is our beijing bureau chief. let's bring back our guest. he is still with us from london. morningee hours of the

in london, i should say. i want to talk to you about the market reaction. of buy the rumor, sell the fact when it comes to u.s. trade? >> i think to some extent, it is a bit of a relief. inhave seen that reflected all asset classes. progress,e tangible some coming from the white house to some extent, this is not going to be a game changer for risk assets. more will need to happen. that will change a bit in 2020 will may start to see some of these external headwinds

reducing in terms of the way that it weighs on investor confidence. what is your thinking on phase two or phase three because that is where the bigger headwinds, bigger problems may lie? oni am not holding my breath anything for phase three. the u.s. will probably do what fromcan to keep markets potentially selling off heading into those elections. the white house is sensitive to stop market moves. -- stock market moves. the need for either side politically to make any major concessions seems unlikely, at

least for the first half of next year. it is more kicking the can down the road, which markets will like to some extent. as long as there is no unexpected tariff announcement or tweet. we can start to focus back on data. tracy: i want to ask you about the currency impact, especially on the currency -- chinese currency. we had it briefly falling below its 200-day moving average. where does the chinese currency go from here? what pointt -- at would beijing think the strengthening his offsetting any benefits from a trade deal? >> to some extent, we may be there.

700 is the technical adjustment beijing was looking at to offset the initial costs from the tariffs that were coming through. reaction?ee-jerk the policy from beijing will be stability and we will see that stability sooner rather than later. when you have a big rally at risk and especially some of the white house -- the asset classes , you will start to see a bit of a disconnect between we see thes where dollar flatlining and some of currencieste asian rallying. thought.ld that you are staying with us. interactive tvur

function, tv , you can watch us live. also become part of the conversation by sending an instant message. if you have an idea of where the yuan might be going, you can let us know. that is for bloomberg subscribers only. you can check it out at tv . this is bloomberg. ♪

>> welcome back to brexit and beyond: the u.k. decides. the pound is stronger by 2.3% against the u.s. dollar. beside boris about

johnson's majority and what that means he will be able to do with regard to policymaking in the u.k. the asian equity session trading higher. predominately a lot of trade narratives and progress between the u.s. and china. >> you can certainly see that risk on sentiment conversely in the safe haven assets, such as the benchmark u.s. treasury, the 10-year yields trading up at .19%. we saw similar moves in the gilt market overnight. some speculation they could move higher once they open for trading again today. meanwhile, the active contracts in the s&p 500, that is currently taking up by 0.2%. ofseem to have a number worries that had concerned investors suddenly knocked out of the market in the past six hours or so. we have trade, the possibility of a hung parliament -- it does

not seem like we are going to get that given the big conservative win projected there . we also have the fed injecting $500 billion worth of liquidity into the year-end. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> absolutely incredible. ,he number that people expected 300 30, maybe 350. to see 368 on the screen is incredible. >> if these numbers are true, i do believe the pressure is off boris to actually get that deal done. >> this is so unique and outcome that there has never been a prime minister who has gone -- never been a party who has gone to the country for the fourth time of asking and increased its standing in parliament with this number of mp's.

he will have his eye on the next election already. good.s exit poll is very it tends to get it wrong. wrong, it has to be a historical error. very few things are better for a currency. >> this majority allows him to go either way and the bigger the majority, if it is confirmed, the more he will be able to strengthen his own position. anna: some of the reaction we have heard so far from the u.k. election results as the results have been coming in overnight. we have been covering this since 10:00 thursday evening, it is now 4:30 a.m. in london. it does seem to corroborate and support the exit polls, which suggest a very strong performance to boris johnson and his conservative party. let's get the latest on u.k. politics. >> let me take you through the

winners and losers. this is where we stand so far. the conservatives. 274 approaching that majority number, which they are forecast to beat. the labour party at 179 at the moment is on course for the worst electoral defeat since 1935, a clear message against jeremy corbyn and his policies. he said tonight he will be standing down at some point in the future. it seems like this will be a transition where the party tries to work out its direction and what exactly it does next, how it responds to this staggering outcome we are seeing. it is shocking now for the lib dems, they are looking to gain a seat net from last time. the leader was talking about hundreds of seats at the start of this campaign. now, she has lost her own seat. snping good for the s&p -- in scotland. this is the main party

advocating for independence north of the border and they have done very well. they are heading back to levels we have not seen since 2015. let's move across and have a look at the map. you are going to see a lot of blue. worth remembering, conservative constituencies are generally bigger because they tend to be rural. you are always going to see a lot of blue, but look at this old red wall that has crumbled in the midlands, the north. it has all gone conservative. also in wales, you can see the big inroads. these are seats that people assumed would always be labour because in the past they tribally have been. seats theso many conservatives have taken that they have never been. before the parties have to think very differently about this in future elections. what tonight showed is that nothing can be taken for granted. look at all of that yellow in scotland. that is the snp those gains as they are forced to hit 55 seat projection we saw in the exit

polls. looking very good for the nationalist party in scotland and looking very good for the conservatives everywhere else. anna: yes, hard not to think that this is the kind of defeat that the labour party is going to be thinking about for years to come. thank you so much for the update. let's check in on how the markets are faring with juliette. what are you seeing? absolutely watching this big move in pound on the back of these holes. you have the british pound the most in three years. the euro fall quite substantially against the pound, but the other major headline is the signing of this phase i trade deal between the u.s. and china, giving a lot of impetus in terms of risk assets. have seen the onshore you in -- yuan jumped the most in a year. the korean won is rising sharply as well against the greenback.

i want to show you what we are seeing in the equity and bond markets. a lot of superlatives. bear with me. nikkei having its biggest jump since august. hong kong having its best day in about two months. it is rising by about 2%. a lot of movement going through into these airline stocks come into the casinos, which is helping boost sentiment in the mainland. interestingly, the moves on the shanghai composite, which have not moved more than 1% for a month, it is up by about 1.2% in the lunch break. looking at this risk in move, you are seeing yields rising. up by over 12 basis points on the australian five-year note. it is time to pop the champagne this friday the 13th. anna: i will take that under advisement for later today.

let's check in on the first word headlines from around the world. here is tom mackenzie. tom: thank you. sources in washington say and impeachment probed by the house of representatives is being tentatively planned for next wednesday. the white house says it remains in close contact with senate republicans planning strategy in the event the house does vote to a piece -- impeach president trump. the president is due to hold a campaign rally in michigan in the evening the vote is expected to happen. large manufacturers in japan have lost in the midlands for the first time in six years. the boj survey says sentiment , highlighting 520 concern about -- plus five to zero, highlighting concern about the optimism. there are as many industrial pessimists as optimists. china'se signs that

stimulus measures might be working. sales of construction equipment jumped more than 20% last month, double the pace of october. excavator and heavy truck sales are strong indicators of infrastructure investment. beijing has targeted construction to boost growth, setting aside more than $100 million in special bonds for building projects. six bodies have been recovered from new zealand's white island four days after tourists were engulfed in a volcanic eruption. two more victims are thought to be on the island, but have yet to be found. another operation will be launched to recover them. the operation was delayed due to fears of another eruption. scientists warned that volcanic activity has increased and the island is highly volatile. valuationco touched a of $2 trillion briefly on day two of the listed company, finally meeting the kingdoms desired target. it is a point of pride for

riyadh and comes after skeptical international investors said the company's true value is far lower. be just $64id to million, roughly a quarter of 1% of the deal, according to a bank that prepared the deal. twitters on air and on powered by 2700 journalists and analysts in 100 20 countries, this is bloomberg. anna: thanks very much. let's turn our attention to central banks. the ecb left rates unchanged. lagarde'st christine first meeting as head of the central bank. she suggested further rate cuts are unlikely in the foreseeable future. >> there are some initial signs of stabilization in the growth slowdown and of the mild increase in underlying inflation in line with our previous expectations. anna: meanwhile, another central bank chief has unleashed a

staunch defense of negative interest rates. the president of the swiss national bank says it is the only way to keep the frank in check and help the economy -- franc in check and help the economy. >> we have no reason to change monetary policy. if you look at our inflation forecast, it is very low, almost at zero for 1.5 years. we have a growth rate that is roughly 1%. maybe 1.5% to 2%. we have no reason to change this monetary policy. anna: thomas jordan there. our guest is still with us on set in london. we heard just yesterday, wasn't it? thursday, we heard from christine lagarde for the first time in one of those press conferences. what did you take away from it? she says she is not a hawk, or a dove, she is an owl. what did that mean to you? , my graphicyself

just got slightly changed a bit. [laughter] i think when we think about what was said yesterday, nothing new really. what markets will focus on going into next year, what will the hard data do? that will dictate ecb policy in the short-term. the biggest procedure review. there is a chronic inflation problem. it is nowhere near the target in pretty much any developed market. got some thinking to do ther and that wase from it -- there and that was the main thing i took away from it. to see then't wait hawk-dove-i will clipart -- hawk-dove-owl clipart in your next research. is there something outside of the ecb control such as fiscal stimulus that might shake things up? >> i think so.

i think euro-dollar from the validity -- volatility perspective. adding to policy stimulus in the margin. that has been helping keep a lid on the currency. i think something has to break out in one way or the other in the euro side or the dollar side. if you are thinking about the euro side, fiscal stimulus comes to mind. i'm more focused potentially going into next year, the 2020 u.s. presidential elections. at least from a negative dollar perspective. after 18 months of negative data, in the european about to see some string of positive spreads. that seems very unlikely at this point. anna: are you on board with the stabilization story that seems to be some people's description of what we are seeing?

stabilization at a low level? >> stabilization at a very negative level. onhink that trough depends how long that u-shaped recovery is. if one would have expected a v -shaped recovery because of the uncertainties were fickle at the start of the year, but they have detracted for much of 2019. i think when we think about the factors that were weighing on at least real activity this year, some of those are certainly with us. we talk about brexit, the european economic data. that could be a good factor that could start reversing. it is going to take more than a u.k. election to change people's perception on how soeda of -- on how real investment decisions are affected. we need to see some policy progress in europe and in the u.k., as well as some recovery in the hard data.

tracy: i wanted to ask you about the bank of england. there is no escaping u.k. politics at the moment, but how do you see the outcome of the election if we do get that strong conservative win as currently projected? do you see that reshaping the boe in terms of personnel, but also in terms of strategy? outlook for bank of england policy in 2020 shifts from dovish, as was priced in, to neutral going into next year. the bank can afford to potentially factor in some fiscal impetus, as well as some confidence inment the investment cycle. that will add some impetus. that seems to be for me the reason why some of the jobs in the committee are looking for therance -- and doves on committee are looking for some insurance. i think this is a different world to 2017, 2018, where u.k.

assets or even the pound was underpinned by the tailwinds of the hiking cycle. we are talking more than just one or two rate hikes. we are just nowhere near that world. the data does not warrant that. a neutral policy adds limited impetus to cable for a medium-term perspective. anna: we talk about dollar weakness. the dollar is pretty weak overnight off this trade news. let me ask you a ridiculous question. a lot of the talk has been about no change in interest rates from the fed. if there is going to be any change, people are talking about a cut next year. given we have had progress on trade talks between the u.s. and china, i wonder what is the bar to start thinking about a hike from the fed in 2020? if the global economy gains momentum as a result of removing some of these trade headwinds,

it does not seem completely nuts to think about. >> yeah, i think the thing with the u.s. and the federal reserve thinking is one risk substituted for another. this year was all about trade. next year is all about domestic politics. i think from the way that it interacts with investment and real activity in the u.s., i think there is still going to be that. we saw this in 2016. six or nine months of uncertainty from the investment side. the fed under janet yellen was talking about this a lot. there is a reason why economic activity flatlined. we will probably see a similar sort of phenomenon going into next year. it is a very difficult one for the fed. while one door may be closed, another risk door has opened and that is partly why the neutral stance is there. anna: and other trade fights could also be picked, couldn't they? thank you so much.

moment to look at what is going on in markets. really risk-on as a result of progress on trade. the pound currently trading at 1.3459. 0.75%. sci up as a result of the progress we are making on trade. president trump signing off on a trade deal with china to avert december tariffs. sentiment andd got investors seeking a little bit more risk. 1.91 is where we trade in the u.s.-10 year -- u.s. 10-year. we are going to take a short break. this is bloomberg. ♪ oomberg. ♪

afternoon in1:48 tokyo. we have been talking about a number of risks being taken off. yen is currently weaker against the dollar. the dollar is actually weaker against a number of major currencies this morning. something to watch out for. the risk-on currency is all about the chinese yuan. let's check in on how the india markets are faring. we go to mumbai. good to see you as always. what are you watching? you.s, good afternoon to script ining the india, as well. we started off a bit more muted and we are now doing a lot more better than what we did. mind you, we had a fair degree -- fairly decent rally.

for nearly 1% higher 1% higher for all of the benchmark indices. the rupee as well as strong against the dollar. 70.60. over the last few days, the currency has been getting against the dollar. they are showing a completely different picture because of the expectations. markets and the currency are tracking in a very different path. back to you. tracy: all right. thank you so much for that. let's get the latest check of the business flash headlines. for that, we go to tom mackenzie. tom: thank you. a leading commodities trader has begun the biggest dollar bond into decades among china's state owned companies. they announced results of its unprecedented debt restructuring, which sees the majority of investors accepting heavy losses. it marks the moment of reckoning

for beijing as it struggles to contain credit risk in the weakening economy. the collapsed a tour operator thomas cook is set to be relaunched by its chinese owner. the tourism group plans to use the 178-year-old brand in a travel platform targeting european customers. they will debut the platform in the first half of next year. thomas cook's bankruptcy led to thousands of job losses in the u.k. and left 150,000 tourists stuck overseas. the trade deal signed off by president trump means apple and other companies avoid tariffs on their products. it was 15% duties which could have added $150 to the price of an iphone 11. holding product prices steady while swallowing the tariffs could have cut apple earnings per share by about 4% next year. that is your bloomberg business flash. thanks very much.

tom mackenzie with the business flash. back to the politics. live pictures from downing street. 10 downing street, the official residence of the british prime minister. it seems it has been a very good night for the conservative already. boris johnson's conservative party returning victorious. his election gamble seems to have paid off, claiming seats all over the north of england from the labour party. that is one of the big themes of the night. jeremy corbyn said he was stand down. the liberal democrat leader has lost her seat. those are some of the headlines in terms of the u.k. election story that has been developing overnight with a big win for the conservatives. that is in the exit polls. that is what they suggested and we seem to be getting data point after data point, constituency after constituency that confirms that blue trend. this is bloomberg. ♪

anna: welcome back to the program. let's get straight to the u.k. politics story. the u.k. election 2019. >> what have we now? just 5:00 a.m. it has already been the majority of the night and we have had some staggering results. the tory majority continuing to coalesce, continuing to grow. we had it predicted at the start of the night and that is what we have seen play through. 309 seats for the conservatives. 192 for labour party, on course for the worst electoral resort -- result since 1935. read a historic damage being done to jeremy corbyn, he said he will stand down at some point. it will potentially be some sort of transition period while the party works out what is going on. they will have to come up with some response. they have lost two elections

that have not gone their way. the lib dems having a shocker of the night. only seven seats so far. party that wanted to stop brexit. their leader was talking about being the next prime minister, talking about hundreds of seats. she has lost her own seat. looking better for the scottish national party, they are the other big success story of the night. a lot of this is around scottish nationalism and a second independence vote. they seem to be heading for what the exit poll predicts is going to be 55 seats. that is closer to 2015 levels than what we have seen. you can see just where this is spreading across the country. you can see this redwall has been broken down. conservatives, a lot of blue around the country. the yellow and scotland. a very strong visual. shows you exactly what is going on. tracy: all right. thank you so much for that update. anna, i suppose it is worth

mentioning we are still awaiting the official results, but certainly according to the number of early polls, this is a historic win for the conservatives and certainly a historic defeat for labor -- labour. let's take a look at key upcoming political debates. december 16, parliament returning. january 30 will be a big one for markets. the bank of england rate decision. it remains to be seen whether the boe is impacted by the conservative victory. january 31, article 50, the end of the extension of the deadline comes into play. i should just mention another question around the labour party. what happens now that jeremy corbyn has stepped down? dd security is asking whether or not the party structure is going to favor another hard left leader? anna: indeed. we will see. the party membership does not change just because the leader steps down. we will see if it evolves. could they pick somebody in the jeremy corbyn mold or will they

go in a different direction? it is interesting that some of the events might not be such big market events because we have a big majority, we might get more discipline and predictability coming from 10 downing street. more on u.k. politics next. this is bloomberg. ♪ here, it all starts with a simple...

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>> boris johnson heads for a decisive election victory. the biggest majority since margaret thatcher. nejra: johnson's gamble appears to have paid off, paving the way for him to take the u.k. out of the european union next month. >> mandate. given aion has been powerful new mandate. done. brexit anna: jeremy corbyn says he will step down as the labour party leaderil