go? gina: in a short-term perspective we reached over again after the surge last week and i think that is why the market is consolidating. the next big hurdle will be earnings season, which believe it or not kicks off already in january. fedex obvious he set a negative tone on earnings. so there's a healthy amount of skepticism which suggests there's an evident wall of worry, which you indicated worry -- earlier. but there is a show meet market. i think we are entering a point in time where 2019 schemes will have to be filled by true earnings recovery into 2020, which creates a different character of market than the last year, but it does not mean the bull market is over ending. romaine: you mentioned short-term conditions, the 14 day rsi around it. scarlet: the s&p 500 backing off from the record highs. little change really, but it is a red arrow down for the two major indexes.

the nasdaq up marginal ly. volume higher than a 20 day average which tends to happen on days where the market tends to move up slightly or state p -- stand pat, you see lower than average volume. it is when you have drawdowns that activity tends to be more active than usual. romaine: and keep in mind with the s&p in the red, part of that was pulled down by fedex. i think we are waiting on micron earnings as well, which i believe is just crossing the wire. quarter micron first $.48 versus the estimate of $.47. the bottom line indicating a beat. in terms of how the share prices moving, do we have an after hours trading? romaine: down about 1%. scarlet: we don't have a lot of numbers here to work with. first quarter net is $491 m

illion, according to the release, and adjusted revenue of $5.14 billion, topping the estimate of $5 million. cash flow $2.01 billion. stock not moving very much at this point. joe: also bear in mind we see adjusted gross margins beating 27.3 versus 20.8%. another one of these chip stocks that has been on a tear. this was in the low 30's to start the year, now 53. so many names have been like this. joseph at morgan stanley he was a big bear for a big part of the year, he issued a mea culpa saying he was wrong. i don't know if you would call it bullish, but saying it is more upside. scarlet: and the stock is moving to the upside. let's dive deeper into the action with our markets reporters. what are you watching? michael: treasury yields were up a decent amount today, and that is usually not a great recipe for real estate stocks.

but sure enough they were the stars of the show today, up about 1% or more as a group for the biggest gain among the 11 main industries in the s&p 500. is noticeable. capital,ins and crown american tower. that is a group that has gotten beaten down the last couple months. yesterday closing at about a four month low. after jpebound comes morgan recommended that investors actually add them to their portfolios next year. it was a very nuanced call from j.p. morgan, because they are writing it may lag the market if jp morgan's forecast for 10% earnings growth in the s&p holds true next year. but these estimates often are revised lower as the year goes on, as was the case this year. so, if the forecast eps growth for the entire market next year

is revised lower, then it should do well because their expected earnings growth in 2019 is very close to what they will deliver. he expects the same to be true in 2020. that visibility on earnings and not having to revise expectations lower could give this group a boost. renita: i am looking at amc, down for a second consecutive day after bank of america downgraded the stock, saying it sees a troublesome 2020 ahead since the company, by its standards, has a weak lineup of films for the year. take a look at what happened during the intraday. also during the session we learned that bank of america says that the movie slated -- movies slated for 2020 may not be able to contend with the blockbusters this year including the lion king and avengers -- endgame. the latter movie happened in april where we saw a 50% spike in shares.

pardon me, a spike in shares, but since it has dropped 50% the rest of the year. but bank of america expects amc to have more competition from smaller screens like netflix. i want to focus on micron. beat on the top and bottom line the fiscal first quarter. when it comes to the fiscal second quarter, micron is saying eps is $.35 a share which is actually less then the consensus estimate of around $.40 a share. but wall street is already looking beyond the fiscal second quarter and into the second half of 2020. come with me into my bloomberg. shows essentially dram pricing, dynamic random access memory. that is what we talk about when we talk about memory in a computer. in the most recent quarter and mix up around two thirds of micron's revenue. you can see dram prices have been falling, and they historically tend to fall as new

technology capacity comes into the market. what is interesting, look at the blue line. micron shares have gained traction in recent weeks. you have seen a number of people on wall street saying look at the second half of 2020 and the key themes we talk about when it comes to chipmakers. increased spending on data sensors, i.t. infrastructure, and new phones that should drive a rebound in dram pricing, and that should ultimately, analysts say, lead to increased profit for micron any long-term. a beat on the top and bottom line and the fiscal first quarter. looking like a worrying picture for fiscal second quarter. we will want to hear more about that on the core -- on the call, as well as huawei. we want to know whether micron can do business with huawei going forward. romaine: thank you everyone on the markets team. we want to bracket -- bring back in michael arone and bloomberg intelligence chief equity strategist gina martin adams.

michael, i want to start with the. let's talk about -- start with you. let's talk about 2020. a lot of people looking to europe and emerging markets saying they could outperform the u.s. what are your thoughts on that? michael: sorry? emergingks compared to markets at this point, i think you have better overall growth rate, likely to have greater profitability in the u.s., and i think that is likely to continue to have large cap benefits. i also think you could continue to see, or you might start to see some softening of the dollar, given the u.s. china trade agreement, and i think that will boost earnings for multinational companies in an environment where maybe global growth is getting a little better. outside of the u.s., i think the argument is that both internationally developed and emerging markets are inexpensive on a relative basis, and they have performed very well the last few years, so many expect a reversion. i just do not see the catalyst

for it. joe: gina, what is your view on what the opportunity is for stocks outside the u.s.? because it does feel increasingly like it is sounding like a consensus call. gina: i think that into the next year, this is the first year since 2017 in which we see them market that broadens and deepens globally, where it is not just u.s.-led. we are seeing developed markets around the world breaking out, europe and canada and australia making new highs. the laggard has been emerging markets, and i think you have had great performance and russia but still really lackluster performance in china. we probably will see, if the dollar continues to turn over, which will ease conditions on emerging-market securities, i think he will see the broadening of performance start to extend into the emerging markets as well, which will propel global stocks. when you look at the global scheme of things, global equity markets have still not made new highs this cycle relative to the

highs of 2007, 2009, unlike the u.s. market. we are looking for broadening and deepening of the global market -- global market outside the u.s. i do think you have the case next year for the first year and many in which the u.s. may not actually be the dominant leader, and the u.s. is joined by better performance elsewhere. scarlet: right, but you can partake in that better performance elsewhere by investing in u.s. multinationals as well. it is just a matter of how you want to position. we know that on capitol hill, congress women and men are very busy debating the impeachment of president trump. is that a tail risk in any way to markets? michael: i do not think impeachment is a tail risk in any way, at least at this point. it is not likely that you will have enough republican senators swayed to see an impeachment prosecution in the senate. i think that is priced into markets. unless there is new material

information that comes forward, i do not think impeachment is a risk to the overall market. i do think what is interesting is next year, similar to 2016 what could be a tossup election, you could have investors on the sidelines waiting for clarity about leadership in the u.s., not only from a presidential perspective, but also in congress and what is the way forward. for many in 2016, the markets were up about 5% into the election, and then responded positively to a republican agenda in terms of war business-friendly, less taxes, less regulation. so you could see some of that as a detriment or headwind for stocks for most of next year into the election. scarlet: go tit it. thank you both so much. that does it for the closing bell. next we will be heading to washington. the house of representatives set to vote on two articles of

impeachment against president trump leader today. they are still debating the impeachment, and of course we will take you there when it happens. the vote should happen this evening, i believe. joe: it could be like. scarlet:this is bloomberg. ♪ -- it could be late. scarlet:this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

romaine: live from bloomberg's world headquarters here in new york. here is a snapshot of how u.s. stocks closed today.

stumbling into the close, the dow and s&p all lower. an historic moment. the u.s. house of representatives now in debate, set to vote in two hours on two articles of impeachment against president donald trump. and escapes from negative rates. sweden's central bank is expected to push its subzero benchmark rate into positive territory. and hard reputation. employees at the softbank vision fund describe a culture of rage and recklessness. scarlet: first we want to show you what is going on outside. if you happen to be in new york, this is what it looks like from our rooftop. joe: show the picture. bring up the picture. scarlet: that is the picture. joe: that can't be it. oh no, i see a little like. -- light. scarlet: i feel like batman is going to emerge any minute. joe: that is the view. scarlet: "view."

joe: november was a strong month for opec. the results are a reminder that a handful of countries have not been playing their part. is jan stuart. up or down, what will 2020 bring us? jan: sideways. [applause] -- jan: sideways. [laughter] there's risk. you showed the group that will now be managing the oil market. it will never work well. sorry, go ahead. romaine: you are starting to see more people get bullish on economic growth in the u.s. but even globally. apparently opec has its issues short -- sorted out. am i wrong? jan: i much prefer the economic outlook than the outlook from opec.

scarlet: do say sideways. a lot of people are looking for the dollar to weaken. wouldn't that support dollar -- oil prices? jan: a weaker dollar would do that. better economic outlook would do that. where are the speculators? they have been moving in this direction for three to four weeks. they have been getting to the kind of levels we saw in april. how much more juice is in that? it needs to come from the fundamentals which are broadly copacetic. we suspect as things probably will go in the spring, then you have the other big bugaboo over the market, which will be what will donald trump do if prices go over three dollars and he has 2 million barrels a day sitting on the sidelines? joe: so, oil has already fairly nice q4, rally indecently into the end of the year. do we need to see more robust economic activity, or a pickup in growth, to get upward pressure, or could it come from the supply-side?

jan: it could come from both. most likely is first, the economy. the economy is going to improve on what was a pretty horrible 2019. bearishness was very much part of the outlook trading going on in oil for a long time. all of those outflows have to reset to a better economic outlook. scarlet: you mention that a big reason you think oil will go sidewise is you do not have faith in management of opec. remember when we thought opec did not matter anymore for oil prices? that is no longer the case. what have these guys learned from working together over the past year? jan: i think what they learned over a long three years was they work best when the saudi's do all the heavy lifting. that is easiest way to do it. the most expedient and efficient way to do it. so what we learned earlier this month is the saudis are fed up with doing that so they are going to share the burden.

but who will share it first. that will be a question hanging over for march, only 2.5 months from now. romaine: one of the more interesting domestic stories in the u.s. is the idea of u.s. energy independence finally being achieved, at least by some of the main topliners. as you look at the next year and beyond, how much of an impact will that have on global supply and pricing? jan: i think the u.s. energy expenditures is one of the really big stories of the last decade, the decade we are now exiting. going forward it simply means the u.s. -- united states growth -- oil demand growth is going to decelerate. c production outside america will decline. more power will accrue to our friends in open -- in opec plus. what will they do? that will be more important to

prices in that five, 10 year horizon than is u.s. shale going to keep with song the market. -- whipsawing the market. joe: going back to the macro front, one of the things that has defined 2019 is horrible car sales. particularly in some emerging markets, which were thought to be amazing contributors. india, china, awful. growth in china was ev fleets. is that changing the outlook, the fact that people are not buying internal combustion automobiles same way people may be expected a couple years ago? jan: it is a major worry. if you look at car sales this year, is that the exception or the new normal? the world over we have had uncertainty. whether it is trade wars, yellow vests in france, argentina. there's uncertainty and unrest. and amid that, the lesson you do

is buy a new car. so is the uncertainty and unrest the new norm? are growth prospects for 2 billion plus people in foreign countries, are they suddenly gone? it's too soon to call, i think. scarlet: the watchword for jan is copacetic when it comes to oil prices. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

scarlet: let's get back to capitol hill. congressman adam schiff is speaking right now. this is part of the debate on the two articles of impeachment against president trump. our bloomberg reported joins us from d.c. it's been hours of debate.

there are still a couple hours to go before they vote. have we learned anything different from what we already knew coming in, which is democrats would be on one side and republicans on the other? >> debate is a strong word for what is happening today. there has been a lot of the same. we have heard the exact same speeches we have heard thus far from judiciary chairman terry nadler, the ranking -- chairman jerry nadler and republican doug collins. they have said the same points. we are now moving to where the intelligence community is presenting its evidence against the president and we expect to see that vote around 7:30 this evening. joe: it is weird because obviously this is historic. on the other hand it feels like there is this inevitability, let's wrap this up into days and -- up in two days. david: both of those are true. it's historic no doubt.

but it is not clear who is trying to persuade whom. joe: you do not think they are all seriously listening to each other? hmm, that is a good point. they have said they know how it is all going out. we spoke to a senator from ohio and he said he has not made his mind but he did not see the case. i am not sure what more you would have to show him. romaine: when you look at the general arguments being made by both sides as to why they should or should not impeach, there seems to be this dividing line as to how we look at the constitution and how we look at the duties and roles of the senators and the house and the representatives in the house. is there any sort of consensus or any thing that bridges the gap between the two sides in regards to how they view these roles? david: it is dressed up in legal discussion although i am not

sure the law has much to do with it at this point. they did not actually charge the president with a crime in the articles of impeachment. but there is one through role -- one through-line, do we want him to be president or not. at the beginning adam schiff said we should not go through with -- with impeachment unless there is consensus. but there is not consensus in the country. scarlet: that divisiveness runs through everything. the president of course i am sure to some extent is monitoring what is going on. but when the vote takes place he will be busy in michigan. anna: that's right. because of the timing of the vote which will be later, it will be probably at the exact same time the president is having a rally and battle creek, michigan. this used to be a democratic stronghold that has now gone for president trump, and it is a place where democrats need to make gains if they are going to unseat trump in 2020. joe: i am seeing some polls saying that maybe trump is improving a little bit, or that may be perceptions of

impeachment of gone down a bit. i am not sure. by november rolls around do you think this will be what we are talking about or will this be ancient history? david: it is forever in political terms. but judging right now, look at one thing which is the ads congresspeople in the swing districts are taking out. they do not talk about impeachment at all. they talk about bread-and-butter issues, pocketbook issues. --higan you could cite battle creek is as far west as you can get. in the west there are a lot of republicans. romaine: you interview a lot of folks on both sides of the aisle. are democrats concerned this could backfire heading into the election? david: they would never admit it if they are. my sense is they felt it was inevitable and he had no choice. i do not get any sense for any democrat this is a great opportunity, this will be great for us. at the same time had they not done it, their base may have

turned on them. a lack of the base wanted this badly, and at least they will check this box. scarlet: there is a lot of inevitability around this process. inevitably when the house of representatives votes and passes because it is controlled by democrats, what happens next? walk us through what happens for the rest of the year. anna: expect president trump to be impeached by 7:30, maybe 8:00. it will not be until tomorrow that house speaker nancy pelosi will announce the impeachment managers, which will be the house members who present the case in the senate trial. we expect that trial to start next year. they cannot send them over to the senate until the senate passes the appropriations bill to fund the government so that we do not shut down on friday, then the senate trial will begin next year. joe: thank you very much anna and david. this is bloomberg. ♪

the first crumpton word news. the house continues and will debate today on impeachment articles accusing president trump of abuse of power and obstruction of congress. opening the debate this morning, nancy pelosi called the president an ongoing threat to our national security. foundersadly now, our vision of a republic is under threat from actions from the white house. oft is why today, as speaker the house, i solemnly and sadly open the debate on the impeachment of the president of the united states.

if we do not act now, we would be derelict in our duty. it is tragic that the president's action make impeachment necessary. he gave us no choice. >> as republicans continue to process criticize the process, jerry nadler said president trump has broken his oath of office and congress cannot wait for the election to address is the best misconduct. doug collins said the president did nothing wrong in his interactions with ukraine. mr. trump is scheduled to address supporters and michigan tonight at the same time the house the vote to impeach him. it the president is to take the time at 7:00 p.m. local about 30 minutes before speaker pelosi plans to call for a vote on the first of two articles of impeachment. mr. trump is not saving his response for the rally as the house debate of the articles today, the president repeatedly took to twitter to voices

outrage. the justice department wants to drive down violent crime in seven of the nation's most violent cities. justices will boost federal law enforcement resources in many cities. they have violent crime rates high above the national average. the department is also committing up to $71 million of federal grant funds that can be used to hire new officers, pay overtime and purchase new equipment and technology. india's top court will take a look at the country's proposed religion-based citizenship act. it huge demonstrations have been held to protest the law. barssters say it undocumented muslims from seeking citizenship but allows others to do so. the prime minister's government has pledged to push ahead and implement the law. global news 24 hours a day on air and it quicktake on

bloomberg powered by more than 700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton this is bloomberg. direct to consumer tv options have been popping up challenging netflix and hulu. it's the streaming wars. it does not seem to be going .way anytime soon or it >> cutting the cord. there is an endless amount of content to watch and it doesn't seem to be getting any shorter. for the most valuable companies on the s&p 500 will introduce their own streaming services. they are spending billions of dollars in order to defeat with netflix, amazon and hulu. and apple tv plus kickoff in november. does the plus costs have as much as netflix and offers a library

of programs designed to be irresistible to families. apple tv plus is cheaper but only has a small library of original programming. two other services to watch out for, hbo max and peacock. theirre people who cancel cable and satellite subscriptions and the higher netflix stock rose harder a guide for those companies to ignore the change. in an october poll of u.s. consumers with broadband internet, 63% they watch their favorite show online. with u.s. producers making at least 100 more shows, the pace doesn't seem to be slowing down. i'm taylor riggs in san francisco. for more on the streaming guest bestuess is

president of curiosity scream -- curiosity stream. you guys have 10 million subscribers. what are you doing and how you get so many subscribers? all of us are beneficiaries of a great founder. his life mission has been factual entertainment. he was the original founder of discovery channel and if you look at curiosity stream today, fewer documentaries on science, history and technology. that was his original vision for discovery before it turned into reality programming. we have been pushing on multiple subscription buckets where direct to consumer at the same aggressivelybeen working with operators around the world.

>> one of the things we have seen through all of the competitors is extraordinary content expenditure. it seems to go up enough up and if you're a consumer, that's great. will they ever be able to do -- tampa down? likell these big players netflix tell up? >> in the case of netflix, they have scheduled velocity. they will probably go to 300 million households over the next five years. will they go from $15 billion to programming costs to $25 billion? i doubt it. romaine: netflix, a big part of their appeal is new shows. when disney launched, it was the ability to watch old programming. for you and your company, what do you see is most important? that great new

programming brings in new customers and new subscribers but having a rich library keeps them. we have a library of 3000 factual titles. curated from the best producers around the world. includes 1000 of our own original productions. shery: you mentioned all the car deals and corporate subscriptions and education subscriptions. lot ofs obviously a different providers. consumers are getting confused and getting fed up with how many different sources they have to pay for. when does the shakeup occur and how many people will survive? >> the shakeout is occurring right now. if you look just over the last 18 months, many have ceased to operate. about being in a full

category. just like news and scripted programming is. a programke you have to a full category and if you are a niche, it is hairless. there are four channels that have shut down. one of them was part of comcast. companyver, a superhot the proposition was instead of having to spend $80 to get the highest tier on direct tv or dish, they are available for free on the hulu. they are part of a bigger company. they are now shut down. lots of others are shut down because of the economics. romaine: do you believe consumers have a maximum in their head that they are willing to spend? then there are a few or

potentially will go a lot higher if the offerings are that compelling? has thenk that everyone cap. to some people it is $60 $80. what you will start to see is a move back to bundling. does launched and they announced a deal with verizon where if you're a verizon unlimited customer, you get disney plus free for one year. that is one example. we have been doing that with distributors around the world where our proposition to them is .e will provide you 3000 titles offer it as part of your basic package. romaine: that was the president and ceo of curiosity stream. let's talk about washington, d.c. this is a live shot of the house of representatives. adam schiff was briefly at the

podium as various members get their chance to weigh in on the two articles of impeachment that will be voted on later tonight. you can watch this right here on bloomberg tv or on your bloomberg terminal using the function live go. this is bloomberg. ♪

joe: the world oldest bank stands to be the most significant as it pioneers a shift away from negative interest rates. we spoke exclusively with our guest. >> we have negative real rates everywhere and negative other rates other places.

unprecedented of stimulus rolled to the circumstances, it is hard to have anything constructive view on the markets risk and the economy and immediate term so that's what i have. joe: joining us for more analysis is our business week economic editor. people love to talk about negative interest rates. what is their problem? >> i'm with you. to me -- joe: i'm not on any side. the move by riksbank is risky business. they have tried this once before. in 2010, they tried to raise interest rates and they had to roll it back.

someone referred to it as saito monetarism. immoral is a good word for it. wrongidence proved them that time was what happens this time. there's no question there are downsides to negative rates. they do make life difficult for the banks and they raise the prospect of reaching for a yield which can create bubbles. on the other hand, they sustain the economy at a time when it needs the help. romaine: it's not just about the downside. there have been studies questioning the upside as well. one look at the swedish rate and basically said their negative rates, it was not relevant. that's another point that is fair which is it's not that useful.

the question is, what do you do in the absence of help on the fiscal side? what is happening is the central banks of the world are being forced to do more than they really should. it should be the fiscal side with more spending, tax cuts and so want to keep the economy going. until that happens, somebody has to do something. now the riksbank is going to try to unwind some of that. day, theecond straight pound is falling against the other g10 currency. i would be's -- i was surprised when did as well as it did in the immediate aftermath of the election. i think it's because there's a sigh of relief that we were going to get a -- were going to get a chaotic hard brexit. that doesn't mean things are going to go well for the u.k. economy.

there was already some weakness. then you have brexit come along on top of that. it's going to limit immigration, hurt the financial services industry, make it more of an ancillary economy. all negative things. how can you be positive on the pounds at a time like that? romaine: i'm sure we will have you back to answer that question over and over again. great to have you. it's time now for smart charts. our guest is the head of technical analysis at oppenheimer. what are the charts telling you? markets run up a lot in a short amount of time. the point we want to stress is that this is a rally that has been supported by very broad-based internal' leadership.

specifically, if we think back until -- up until august it was a defensive led market but that turned on a dime over the last months and it has some staying power. i have a few charts to make that case. the first one is the s&p 500 top panel. bottom panel, high data versus low volatility ratio. theee the recent term in line. that is high data stocks outperforming versus low volatility. this is following 18 months of prior underperformance. we think this has some legs do it. it supports a strong equity market looking into 2020. shery: strong equity market for the u.s.. let's look globally. people keep making the case that there's a lot of catch-up potential overseas. the nikkei is near multi-decade highs. >> it's really about how broad

this is not only in the u.s., we have the russell 2000 small caps and local markets as well. 25, 25 year breakout dating back to the mid to early 1990's. that's a big breakout in the index. it's occurring within europe as well. 600 breaking through twenty-year resistance dating back to the year 2000. we can see that. the last time we were up to those levels, it was an undisturbed multiyear rally. now we have paused. joe: you are going back to 1999. >> yes the rally started in the mid-90's. so many of the consensus things we hear like his 2020

going to be the year? when you combine the japan chart and look at the euro chart what'sts everywhere and in the u.s., it may be the case for regime change is real. > it's about absolute participation. i think you want some diversity here, you want equities and value. i still think this is a tech leg. u.s. large-cap growth is your core position. you should do well in this low growth world. the turn towards europe and value, we are all not being bullish enough. their forecasts are way too low. if that's going to play out, it's going to happen in a risk on bull market. shery: well said. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

joe: the softbank vision fund best known for tech startups. our cover story on businessweek brings to light the real environment inside the famous fund. everyone has to read this story about how the vision fund operates. professional asset allocator. this article would not make me want to give them my money. shery: yeah gives you food for thought. economies -- economist at bloomberg did a great job talking to current and former employees. also, flattery toward them, a compliance issue. abnormally high tolerance for risk.

we have many examples in this story about his personality but at the same time, the fact he can flip into rage mode if he doesn't get his goals. they are demanding more for his startups. romaine: i thought this article was fascinating. they pointed out a lot of the deputies under him were a source of some concern. >> it's not just one specific manager. vintage walle of a street macho environment. i think scarlet but right, it's like any other founder. -- i think scarlet put it right.

you seem increasing scrutiny on how they are making those bets. when you take a look at those individual bets, it's not like they have a general philosophy on what tech startups they're going to invest in. it seems to be mostly on his startups where there it's wework or over or wag. it seems to be an idea of go big or go home. shery: they only need 1 -- scarlet: they only need one. thank you so much. more on these kinds of stories, don't miss daybreak australia and daybreak asia. up, it's still earnings season and nike reports second-quarter numbers after the bell. be watching economic data for home sales. this, raten't miss

decisions tomorrow. bloomberg technology is coming up next in the u.s.. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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♪ riggs in san francisco this is bloomberg technology. highest price the and 18 months after the company reports earnings. we will break down the numbers. plus a culture of recklessness. of guardns of a lack for consequences, harassment at a