tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg December 20, 2019 10:00pm-11:00pm EST
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>> coming up on "bloomberg best," the stories that shaped the week in business around the world. the use and china showed out a trade deal. >> a lot of tariffs will remain in place. >> the trade issues with china will go on for years. not months, but years. >> after a landslide electoral win, boris johnson puts the risk of a no deal brexit back on the table. >> his big election win, we will not see amy imagined stock. >> a new heavyweight in the auto industry. >> the consolidation is there, especially now.
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>> the rates are held, but swedish's central bank is negative territory. topast the wall for us to go zero. kailey: the house takes a historic vote to impeach president trump. >> article two is adopted. >> it's an incredibly divided time in congress. kailey: as 2019 comes to a close, investors share a perspective on the global economy. >> the growth trend is firmly in place for 2020. much moneyave too piled into a lot of higher-yielding assets. >> what we're doing is definitely borrowing from the future. we will probably end badly. kailey: it's all straight ahead on "bloomberg best." ♪ kailey: hello and welcome, this
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is "bluebird best, -- bloomberg best." let's start with a day by day look at the top headlines. investors began the week in a risk on mood thanks to a dose of positive news on the trade front. >> the u.s. and china reaching the must anticipated phase one of the trade deal. to release thed agreement in early january. it involves a reduction in tariffs in exchange for more chinese purchases of american farm goods, as well as commitments on intellectual property, forced technology transfers, and currency markets. is this phase one considered a success? >> what is really interesting is we see a lot of people who you may call doves who had been hoping for something more the tariffswith
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and trade war we have seen. quiet rightwks are now, they are happy because a lot of tariffs will remain in place. we have a deal that imparts the trade deal where it is, but there are still a lot of tariffs in place. they thought it was stabilize, boris johnson wants to create a new brexit deal. the leader is looking for a stronger mandate. itsling has lost most of appreciation. we are back. no deal is back on the table, because boris johnson doesn't want to delay. >> the door has been opened again a tiny bit to a no deal brexit. boris johnson is showing off that despite his win, we will not see a new reimagined software boris, we will see him draw a hard bargain.
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he will not be willing to entertain an extension. don't think it can be dragged out. we follow and give that, we put it to say that i can. if we don't have a deal by the end of next year, we are going out anyway. it's him trying to set up his negotiating tactic before the talks start in february, so the arrangement is beyond the end of next year. howore details are emerging china would increase imports from the u.s. by as much as 200 billion dollars under the phase one trade deal announced last week. it's an ambitious target. what do we know about how far china is prepared to go? what steps will it take to meet that target? >> it is an ambitious target. china bought about $24 billion of agricultural goods. that has been a big focus for president trump. supposedly china pledged to get to $50 billion.
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that's a big jump. we are seeing details. one thing is ethanol. china wants to clean up the environment. it will increase the amount of ethanol it adds to gasoline. that is one thing china will buy more of. another thing, $10 billion of goods routed through hong kong into china from the u.s. it looks like the chinese government is looking at ways that reroute that. the bank of japan has left monetary policy unchanged as a government stimulus package is helping to brighten outlets. into negative territory remains an option, but the boj is paying attention to the side effect on banks. >> they kept the key policy doves the same rate. the key is negative. -.1. you have the yield curve control, the 10 year jgb anchored at zero. a range at that level.
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right now, a big shift. the majority of economists think nothe boj's next move will be adding stimulus, it will be taking it away in 2020. decision, no surprise. the key interest rate at .3%. the vote is 7-2. they see inflation slowing. and they see the bond purchases unchanged. they do say it is too early to judge the impact of the election and trade war. no big surprise. >> this was pretty much as expected. the key will be to underline uncertainty about the outlook for the economy, even though we have the clear conservative victory in the election. even though we know now brexit is going to happen, there is uncertainty about what kind of brexit it is. the most important one probably short-term is we don't know what
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the policies of this government are going to be, the fiscal policies, in particular. >> boris johnson in parliament announces the agenda for the u.k. after it separates from the european union. >> it's not the british people want brexit down, though they do, they want to move politics on and move the country on. >> his main message was he's going to get his brexit agreement through parliament, move on to the trade talks, which he wants to conclude by the end of 2020, and he really wants us not to be saying brexit in 2020. he wants us to focus on health crime,imarily, but also infrastructure, all of those things important to getting his new voters in the midlands, the north, labor voters that moved to the tories, to keep them on side for the next election. >> the u.s. house of
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representatives voted to impeach donald trump for the abuse of power and obstruction of justice in congress. this makes him only the third u.s. president to be sanctioned by lawmakers. the articles of impeachment will be turned over to the senate for a trial, where his acquittal in the republican controlled is all but assured. >> in terms of the next step, nancy pelosi telling reporters she might actually wait a couple of days to send the articles of impeachment to the senate, therefore delaying the process of the trial. mitch mcconnell wants to have the trial scheduled by the end of the week. more than 3000 democrats who won district trump carried virtually all voted to impeach the president, with the exception of a handful. republicans feeling unified heading into this trial. dividedan incredibly time in congress. president trump is one step
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closer to his new nafta agreement. one day after voting to impeach him, the house passed of the u.s.-mexico-canada free trade agreement. if it were not expecting a free senate vote, what is next for the deal? >> it will be going on to the senate in january, when lawmakers return from the christmas holiday. there's really no danger. it passed the house by an overwhelming majority with support from both parties. democrats in the senate and republicans, as well, have said they are ready to take it on. the problem is they will be occupied with the impeachment trial. once they begin that, they cannot consider any other issues or legislation. they will be focused on that. it probably will not be until late january, even february, before it gets passed.
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. there's really no danger of any backsliding. this has a full support of the white house and both parties. >> the head of the financial conduct authority is to succeed the uk'sey at central bank. he spent three decades at the about howdo we know andrew bailey will navigate post-brexit transition? the first thing, monetary policy, he is a bit of a blank check. he hasn't been on the monetary policy committee, we don't know his views about monetary policy. bailey has aow is lot of experience at the regulatory bank of england. that will be interesting as the u.k. transitions to some form of brexit deal, some new relationship with the european
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union. the's probably ahead of other candidates, the knowledge of the technical side that has put him ahead of the candidates. we reviewill ahead as the week on "bloomberg best," an exclusive conversation with robert kaplan. three legendary global investors ascribed the economic risk they see approaching. more of the week's top business headlines. hong kong's leader gets a vote of confidence from china's president. >> carrie lam has not really responded in a meaningful way, it continues to have the full support of beijing. kailey: this is bloomberg. ♪
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this is "bloomberg best." i'm kailey leinz. let's continue our global tour of the week's top stories in business, finance, and global politics. the eu lawmakers approved a groundbreaking set of financial regulations. agreedeuropean union has on a landmark finance regulation. it will define what is green and what is not. we could have implications for investors, all kinds of funds. what exactly is green taxonimy? >> it sounds very nerdy and technical, but can be significant. the european union agreed to set
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out the framework to regulate sustainable. they really want to set out the foundations to really define what is green and what is not. they want to do this in a way to set a global benchmark for investment and the sustainable space. you have to look at the political context. the european commission is determined to get ahead with the deal, get it done in 100 days. it would be a key pillar to define what is green investment in europe. ended half a decade of negative rates, raising the benchmark to zero. >> what's passable for us right now is zero. this episode is over. it is a different conversation if you imagine a world where rates stay negative for a long period of time so the perception will be negative rates are natural in the way things are supposed to be. now we don't have to deal with
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that. it's also comfortable to get to zero. china's economy showed signs of stabilizing and regaining growth momentum in a november, adding to the good news for the nation's outlook after a phase one trade deal with the u.s. was reached last week. retail sales coming in better than expected. what's the take away? >> significantly stronger on both fronts than the forecast bank had expected retail sales looking strong at 8% growth in november. industrial production, 6.2% versus 5%. itt officials are saying is some measures they enacted earlier in the year, in terms of tax cuts and support for parts of the economy have started to play through. not to say there's not multiple pressures on of the economy, whether it is diverging inflation or exports that remain weak. midyear budget update shows economic realities
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starting to bear down on government finances. ministers lowered the forecast budget surplus over 12 months through next june and the following three fiscal years on reduced expectations of tax revenues over that period. is it time to consider may be walking back on the idea of having the budget back in the black and following the example of japan and new zealand and doing what the rba wants to see, that's fiscal stimulus? >> no. we have delivered a significant income tax relief, we provided a significant stimulus to the economy. if you look at our economic growth performance in the first three quarters of 2019, they have been stronger than the last two quarters. we are heading in the right direction. our outlook is positive. we are impacted by what's happening in other parts of the world. to xi jinping, saying
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hong kong has faced what he most it's grimest and complicated situation since returning to chinese rule in 1997. he urged hong kong to come back to the right path as he hosted chief executive carrie lam in beijing. >> this is after more than six months of unrest in the city. carrie lam has historically low approval ratings in hong kong. last month had a record turnout, 71% of the populace of the citizens who could vote overwhelminglyly candidates. it shows the populist is still behind the movement, and carrie lam has not really responded in a meaningful way, but continues to have the full support of beijing. >> north korea has successfully at acted a "crucial test"
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long-range long site, and boosted nuclear deterrent capabilities. what is this latest test implying? >> the latest announcement was an important, or significant test conducted on a satellite launching test site. we don't know exactly what sort of a test it was. by announcing it constantly and through its propaganda channel, it shows north korea is trying to apply more pressure on the u.s. in the price of north korea denuclearizing. what was offered in hanoi and vietnam was not enough and has given the u.s. until the year end to bring forth another alternative. >> the operation to inject cash into the financial system over the year and was oversubscribed again. that's a signal participants are
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still hungry through the start of 2020. it's not a huge surprise. we saw it be the case the last couple of times. >> right now, we have done three operations for the end of the year. $25 billion apiece. were all oversubscribed. the worrying thing was if it was under subscribed. that would be sending a signal that may be their balance sheets were getting a little bit full and the non-primary dealers were having problems with their balance sheet and accommodating liquidity the fed was pumping into the system. they are not, it will be interesting to watch. of operationses that will span the end of the year. it will be interesting to see how they continue to go and whether or not there will be more size adjustments. the top prosecutor in malaysia is ready to ratchet up a criminal case against goldman sachs in the one mdb scandal.
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goldman is accused of ignoring red flags while billions were looted from the the state investment fund. >> two or three rounds of negotiations, but they have not gone anywhere. learned goldman is in talks to settle another investigation. they could pay about $2 billion. separatere having channels of communications with malaysia, trying to resolve the issue with them. they would like to have a global sediment that includes them and malaysia. the sooner they can get it done, the better it is. there is still a gap between what they are willing to pay malaysia and what they want. there's not a lot of clarity on when that will be resolved. indian government has banned public protests and shut down communications and the internet in some areas.
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-basedat the religious citizenship. what is the latest? >> yesterday was a big day. we saw protests all over india. most were peaceful. there were incidents of violence that broke out. deaths from two gunshot wounds. and bringinghaotic a sense of what's next in the movement. it erupted due to the citizenship laws. there are still things that can inflame religious tensions in the month ahead, including the construction of a hindu temple on a site raised decades ago where a mosque once stood. ♪
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kailey: you're watching "bloomberg best." i'm kailey leinz. ofthe fed's final meeting 2019, jerome powell signaled the central bank wants to hold rates steady through 2020, no cuts, no hikes. robert kaplan spoke with kathleen hays in new york this week. he sees no reason for rate cuts to move next year, and it would take a major shift in outlook to do otherwise. be a material outlook, for better or worse. outlook.d into my we will have weak manufacturing next year, sluggish global growth, sluggish business investment. there would have to be some
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material change for the outlook. are the risks in your mind? >> it is balanced. i'm hoping for stabilization in trade. the moves the fed has made have been helpful. the risks are balanced. tiltingu see the risks toward the upside and the need for a rate hike, would it be hard to do in an election year? would you consider it ill-advised, something the fed would avoid? >> it will not be a factor in my thinking. divorce political considerations and influences. we will try and make the best decision we can in light of the circumstances, use our best judgment. >> you repeated this morning, you expect to percent growth. 3.5% unemployment. it sounds like you don't accept
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the passage of the phase i trade deal to have much impact on the economy, certainly not out of the gate? >> that's probably correct. i've been hoping there would be trade stabilization generally. this is part of that. i think the trade issues with china are going to go on for years, not months, but years. most businesses are adjusted to that. these issues of intellectual property, technology transfer, and the deeper issues with china will be going on for a long time. phase one is better than not having phase one, but it does not mean there will not be trade uncertainty. kailey: coming up on "bloomberg best." , more of the weeks top business stories. and another setback for boeing 737 max. plus, forward-looking conversations in front of the world's most respected investors. cutting around to embracing risk
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n an exclusive interview, he said he thinks the long erm investors should be cautious going into 2020. >> you could kind of hear the collective sigh of relief, i would say, over the last week's events. certainty that we're on a path to a reasonable brexit. one ad the new phase trade talks with china. and a the new nafta very calming statement from but, like many statements that seem true on a surface this one has lot of dangers because for the most part none of these away any re going time soon. we're just starting on the journey on how the new trade deals will work out. we're just starting on the egotiations with china about the real issues. we're just starting on a probably increased volatility as we head into the election here so while
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ertainly a little collective sigh of relief is understandable, i think that will rapidly in 2020 see that the uncertainty has all.gone away at >> you sound cautious. >> we are cautious and i think we're particularly cautious when you take a term view. o, in the last decade, the s&p has returned actually 13% compounded annually. balanced ly a portfolio has returned about eight. that would put it at the decade since 1880. so we've had a really good 10 years. and so you have to kind of pivot forward and say what's a reasonable expectation for decade? >> here's the thing. forecasters have been already or a while that returns are going to be lower. >> but they haven't been. what is it going to take, david, for the prudent investor to be rewarded? that's absolutely true.
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and if you take returns, year people have been expecting people o be lower, have been worried about trade and yet the stock market has continued to come in. the high yield market? >> it's broad, right? next decade he view, here there the head winds you're looking at. all, you have lower coming in, also in the developing world. i can talk more about that. you have low rates which we are here to stay. that's not a temporary you menon, and third, really do have too much money that's piled into a lot of higher yieldings assets, particularly private we believe h will start to sow the seeds downturn.xt >> another perspective on 2020 game from the c.e.o. of marathon asset management. he discussed his outlook for europe in an
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exclusive conversation. > i think the u.s. economy now is going to have a spurt upwards in growth compared a what was just expected couple of months ago. number one, fed did lower by 75 basis points and that's beneficial, but ven more important to that is these trade wars have now ecome -- have now been settled so the u.s. and china, mexico and canada, and that's clarification for brexit now and the referendum that boris uk, is has in the all highly beneficial to theal growth so i think growth trend is firmly in place for 2020. so i don't think it's going recession.wth i think it's going to be an so we'rerecession, starting to see a negative quarter, past quarter of earnings growth being we'll see a couple more quarters of that in the early part of 2020,
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when earnings go down, that's going to be a very some of these companies that are so overleveraged when they have meanwhileings and have to service a heavy load debt. >> right now, there is a new leader, an owl. it mean for europe? >> i think there will be change on christine. she doesn't want to be known as a dove. a wants to be known as hawk. if you're going to force yourself to go dove or hawk, think more hawk but she's to be a hawk. i think this is what's going to happen. it will be a huge change for marketplace and the marketplace is not pricing -- the market has at all.ussed this i think when the previous 31, er left on october he locked in lower rates yet again for a six-month period of time. which takes us through march 31. he also embarked upon easing quantitative
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program to get more and more governments rates even further. that's crushing the european banks. over the last five years, the european banks are down 25%. if you look at the sx s&p, at that index or compare that with the say the xbe d index, that's up about 45% o 50% in the same time period. so european banks are being punished because every day they have to deposit their at the ecb ves and pay the ecb money losing money. to the tune of several billion dollars a year every year. >> which has been the case time. long >> so she recognizes this. and she's going to normalize rates next year. rates from negative to zero. and with that you will see he german bond go from negative 25 basis points which strayeded at a crazy negative 75 basis points, that trade at maybe a positive 25 basis story, and so the big
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here is, buy european banks. they are underpriced, on a to book vowel basis, on an earnings basis and the earnings will be increasing to pay don't have away negative rates to the which is nk complete insanity. >> here's a perspective from a billionaire. widely considered to be among the best hedge-fund managers of his generation. renowned for making bid aggressive bets said he misread the markets a year back from led risk. he explained why he's this h now in exclusive interview. > you have very low unemployment here. ou have fiscal stimulus in japan. you have fiscal stimulus coming to britain. we were running a trillion dollar deficit. apparently we're going to have some sort of green stimulus in europe, and we negative real rates everywhere and negative lot of rates in a
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places. so with that kind of nprecedented monetary stimulus relative to the circumstances, it's hard to a e anything other than constructive voouf on the risk for the intermediate term so that's what i have. >> because everywhere you encouraged being to take more? take on't need to more, i have enough. just -- i've always expansions end with tight monetary policy i credit problems, and think what we're doing is definitely borrowing from we'll ure and probably end badly as the 07 period did, but, you know that could be years. i'm 66. time t be dead by the it happens.
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so the intermediate term, techscals are good. the economy is fine. anything, our biggest problem going in once the fed shifted away from their tightening program, our biggest problem was obviously global trade, and global trade, i'm not saying everything is all now, but nd roses certainly on a rate to change basis, i don't see anything, , if there is a de-escalation, not an escalation there. now, all systems go.
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businesses. how much is this building on late rategy of the sergio and how important was done?get this >> it's really an unfortunate day. the argument for consolidation are there, we're lly now that seeing a transformation in he industry with new echnologies, with new electric and self-driving cars. expertise in new electric platform. already develop and ready to use. is bringing it to the merican market, these iconic brands.
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>> international -- has eached an agreement to baidu.'snutrition division the u.s. company beat out inland's group to expand the fast growing food ingredients business. tell us about the price. would it have been cheaper if -- had not been trying to get into there as well? cheaper. ally the structure is what's interesting. we understand the carey looking at the same du cture, ended up with pont owning 55% and iff wning 45% and the cash payment of $7.3 billion. one off. up, potentially it drove the price a bit but at the had to do the deal. >> boeing is to halt of the 737 max next month. crisis.ens the it will complicate its future. how embarrassing is it that halt has had to production? >> well, they were facing a
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number of fairly unappetizing options. was, do we keep building this plane at a big cost but making money off of it. building a plane cost a lot of money. if you're not selling them cause as huge problem in terms of cash flow, or do we stop production right bleeding, as it were, but then see how and when we can get the plane back in the air. now after this board meeting the company has decided this disruptive option, but it will be disruptive going forward no doubt. will estion is, when these planes be sold to customers? how long might they languish storage? a lot of unresolved questions for the company and we still don't have a or even a window of when this plane might be freed up again by a lot of , so unanswered questions there. > airbus is grappling with a very different problem.
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airbus needs to lift deliveries by 75% this month meet full year production argets amid an order frenzy. why are they so constrained, airbus? right.re this should be like mania heaven for airbus. but it isn't because of these delays that they are a-320.with the of the issue is that is highly customizable plane. what they are doing is having to move around things inside the planes, things
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ike toilets, emergency exits, to customize them for the various orders. ust the way they have got the manufacturing set up, only one main line for doing this, is the result of these delays. threatened retaliation if germany excludes huawei as a 5-g telephone equipment. eijing's ambassador to germany said "there will be consequences in the event of a ban." cited the millions of vehicles german carmakers sell in china. lawmakers and the chancellor have been trying to mctheir security rules months.ing 5-g for it will spill into next year and what you have, on one side, chancellor merkel and ministry and the industry that are much more open to chinese involvement with huawei. n the other side, intelligence agencies and security types who have
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really warned that huawei pose a danger. so these comments by the chinese ambassador here kind it right out in the open that there will be onsequences from beijing's perspective if germany goes ahead and poses a full ban huawei when it comes to its 5-g network. stretch of holiday shopping season and shipping isdlines loom but amazon blocking its third party fedex forom using quick prime shipments. >> you have a big fat vote no confidence on fedex from amazon as we enter the critical holiday shopping period. these are the days when people decide, you know, am i going to buy this thing it gets herepe in time for christmas or not? and amazon has really, you increased the amount of time people, narrow the mount of time that people are willing to you know,
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make that call, you know. rub right up against almost christmas day. o amazon is saying fedex cannot deliver its pledge for prime delivery, which is or two days. >> fedex is in a bit of fawnk. the company suffered another yesterday when it missed earnings estimate. it's cut its profit forecast laming weak international demand. what can they do to get back on track? factor n was a big although fedex itself is claiming it only affect add small part of their business. problem is the slow adjustment to the boom in e-commerce. fedex, delivering to business is much more than delivering packages to homes. heir seven-day delivery schedule turned out to be much more costly than fedex expected so they are seeing 2020 as a transition year but analystes have been by the latest
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results. >> shares of micron rising in pre-market. reporting er better than expected top an bottom line numbers for the fiscal first quarter and numbers for ng the current quarter. >> give us the numbers and what it means for the semis, in the midst of these record rallies? >> you have to imagine we'll chip stocks move higher. he number, $4.8 billion in revenue beat analyst expectations but it wasn't just the numbers that were remarkable. t was the commentary from micron saying the slow in demand had finally bottomed all up from here. >> taking most points off stock 600 this morning and that's after it lowered its sales growth outlook. company cited challenges in the quarter and some markets including the slowdown in south asia. you get punish when you cut your sales outlook? seeing the new c.e.o., who took over at the start of this year. away from his
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predecessor's growth targets. release this morning they cite west africa, north previously in the last quarter cited slow t sales across much of the world.ping cited slow ice cream sales in europe because the summer wasn't hot enough. a whole n't leave lot of other markets where things are going well. so that's the problem here. fundraising a drive led by goldman sachs. bloomberg learns the deal $800 free up roughly million in cash for the struggling office sharing start-up. wework see uld this capital? >> wework has access to it as of next month which is january. as we discussed in the is part1.75 billion of a bigger $5 billion finance package that they have agreed is part of the and the other $3.3 come in 2020. >> ubs plans to restructure
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he unit that serves as the bank's top billionaire clients. this is first sweeping change. what exactly have we learned today? planning to restructure. they are planning to dismantle the same structure. will ruffle some feathers a reduction in management layers. >> taiwan's mission to etake the global tech supply chain aid mid the trade war looks like it's paying off for investors. closed overiwan the 12,000 mark for the first time since 1990. sustainable are these gains? >> the broad consensus among that they can be sustained. and that things are hooking taiwanese for stocks into next year.
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ven as the global industrial sector kind of limps along, taiwan has done a great job inserting itself deeper into supply chain and pulling manufacturing from some of its competitors. wave of the electronics cycle with 5-g. benefiting taiwan in particular. there are forecasts from including j.p. morgan, that suggest record highs, ll-time record highs in taiwan next year for the generation.n a essentially.
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it's interesting to look at this because orange is the biggest, gray is just others. but then in green you can rinault. >> there are about 30,000 unctions on bloomberg and we always enjoy showing you our favorites. maybe them become your favorites. another function. quic got. it will lead to you quick get fastre you can insight into timely topics. take from ick this week. >> air pollution has become menace that head of the world health organization calls at this time new tobacco. who outdooro the air pollution kills 4.2 million people per year. toll is also rising, with billions of
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ollars spent on medical care and missed work. some countries are fighting back. china, where social media outcry in 2013 pushed authorities to tighten regulations.l power ome polluting plants and switch millions of homes and businesses from gas. to natural the world's emitters of gas is investing in green energy spending over a hundred 2018 on dollars in albeit still building plants that burn coal. experienced ng air categorized by w.h.o. has unhealthy on the majority of days. on, the share fell to less than a quarter. ndia, which is home to seven of the world's 10 most polluted cities, can only dream of such improvements. industrial and vehicle emissions combine with the illegal burning of farm to shroud such cities as new delhi in
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hazardous smog unlike in a powerful central government can enforce rapid change, india's complicated blend of national government agendas has blunted efforts to clean the air. nations, fumes from diesel vehicles are an increasing concern, recent arly as studies link them to infant mortality and heart disease. such as capitals paris and madrid have banned some diesel vehicles. any cities are holding car-free days and public transport is slowly shifting to electric power. the fight against smog has also turned legal as a new generation of activists governments to take action. sensor aps in technologies which track air pollution in real-time can elp pinpoint industries, companies, and countries that throughout rules, helping to build a solid case in court. action by egal the environmental charity client earth the european ourt of justice issued final warnings to improve
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air pollution or face hefty to the uk, france, italy, andungary, romania. > that was just one of the many quick takes you can find on the bloomberg. you can also find them at bloomberg.com along with all the latest business news and analysis 24 hours a day that. will be all for bloomberg's best this week. this is bloomberg. *-
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