gain for the full year. that is a decent amount of strategists. i think there is 21 in our survey at the moment. i think embedded in a lot of them is the concern that we have had this tremendous run this year. there is bound to be a bit of rebalancing in the new year and a little bit about the elections which could cause a bit of a correction in the first not a ton of optimism. the dow, s&p, nasdaq, each down about 0.6% or so. the russell down about 0.3%. a lot of people want to see the small caps get in a little bit more with this rally. vonnie: treat headlines of really impact smaller and medium-sized businesses as well. they may not have the ability to pivot as fast as some of the major companies.

the nasdaq was the laggard. nasdaq down 0.7%. the philly stocks index ended up the session, really dragging things lower with the semiconductors. romaine: cloud flare, five below, peloton. about 5% on the day. let's dive deeper into the action with our markets reporters. renita: i am taking a look at axum therapeutics. it rose to a record high at some point today. acutempany's drug for migraine treatment met its endpoint. significantlyd improved migraine pain and most bothersome symptoms versus a placebo effect. the new drugfile

approval with the fda and the second half of 2020. hd wainwright raised the price target as a result while maintaining the buy rating. a couple of other analysts out there. cantor fitzgerald raised price targets. william blair reiterated outperform ratings. be over christmas may but i still have got santa on my mind. this chart suggests the quote unquote santa claus rally may not happen. and read, we have the dollar. risk -- risk on, the s&p 500. stocks are going higher, the haven yen has been selling off. we see it has pretty reliably reconnected to this uptrend. today come on today's stock pullback, we see the yen hitting

the trendline. the suggestion could be that we could see stocks come in a little bit more. rallyficial santa claus started last thursday. right now, we are down ever so slightly. they will be interesting to see town.ta comes to vonnie: we thank the markets team for comprehensive coverage. city,with us, in new york bloomberg's mike regan. thecca, you talked about investors as a bit of a hedge. curious about the move today in treasuries. we saw swapping 33 basis points at one point. rebecca: it looks like there were concerns this morning .oming into today it appears that was all for naught and things were smooth today. i don't make anything of it one

way or the other. romaine: when you look at what we have seen with the 10 year, a year ago people were saying we would hit 3%, 4%. we have kind of been bumping up against 2%. what are people telling you in regards to their forecast and outlook? michael: if you look at the contents is outlook, it is not a huge move higher. i think the last was about 210, in the low teens may be. idea is that it will move higher but not at a sort of breakneck pace. i think the speed at which it moves is, to e, proving to be important. when the yields rocket up fast, it is almost the velocity of the move. as long as it is kind of this low grind higher, eventually it

does impact stocks. the moveat velocity of higher is pretty swift. vonnie: rebecca, is there anything attractive to you in the fixed-income space? i am not going to say we are fully underweight fixed income in general but we have been light for the majority of 2019. we expect 2020 to be a coupon clipping year. we are not pounding the table. are you saying you stay overweight equities, deeper into 20/20, you are comfortable saying overweight equities given the backdrop? rebecca: yes, particularly given our longer horizon portfolios. shorter, we are right at the 60-40, but we are playing at shorter corporate's. vonnie: mike, what else is

emanating from the strategy notes you are reading? what are the outliers? michael: i don't know so much about outlier but i think it ties into the yield conversation. i think a reason a lot of strategists are not expecting anything more than, say, low single-digit yields in equities is because we have expected a bottom in yields. the earnings picture is still not robust for 2020. the average is about a 9% gain. this early, those numbers are written in pencil. they can be erased very easily. i think until we see these estimates really firm up, people are not comfortable with the -- again, about 3% or 4% growth rise in the s&p. romaine: rebecca, can you expand

on this a little bit? a lot of the gains over the , a lot has come because of multiple expansion. do you think it will be because we see a catch up in profit growth and fundamentals out there? q3,cca: when we ended earnings estimates coming into q4 were for a positive earnings period. the earnings estimates now for this quarter are flat, slightly down, depending on what day of service you look at. we would have to believe that next year, a resumption in earnings growth is the only way we can get a further multiple expansion. vonnie: markets during the trade

negotiations, which is apparently there and ready to go , and at that point phase ii negotiations will start. at some point, there will be a resolution and it won't be bad? michael: we know there is a deal they are ready to sign. i want pace will the tariffs -- the tariffs bell removed? at what chance will president trump reverse? it has almost been a policy of his to be unpredictable in these negotiations. as it does look like phase one is a done tensions haa

story, as potentially a creator of volatility in markets, is not going to go away necessarily for 2020. vonnie: thank you, mark regan. and of course, our thanks to rebecca felton. that does it for "the closing bell." ," next is "what'd you miss? where we will be looking at one of the losing bets. this is bloomberg. ♪

live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york,

i am romaine bostick. vonnie: i am vonnie quinn inverse scarlet fu. joe weisenthal is off today. romaine: a record run. poaching spree. a new year's resolution for the retail industry. how retailers hope to hit the reset after a year of store closures. it has been a bull market to surpass all others. the stories on the latest issue of bloomberg businessweek. was in the white house, tv was mostly black and white, and the baby boom was at its peak. that was the 1950's, the last

time stocks had a decade like the one they are wrapping up now. 49% in theo hundred past 10 years, about 1.2 times the historical average. the 2010s were the first decade without a bear market, a 20 percent drop from any peak. there were plenty of moments to make investors queasy. the flash crash in 2010. europe's sovereign debt crisis in 2011 and 2012. now, a global trade war. perceptions of risk were high but fundamentals were stable. to. gdp expanded by 1.6% 2.9% each of the last nine years. it is expected to be in the same range. record number of wins -- it led to a record

number of wins for the market. like a kids sports league, everyone took home the trophy. romaine: getting fancy did not actually pay off in stocks this decade. investors who look at li public companies to enhance this gain. ipo'sg us to discuss both past and future, drew singer. i would think that some of these ipo's would have been big moneymakers. but that is not the case. drew: the bull market has been a reason why ipo activity has come back this decade, but ipo's have not been quite so kind to the investors participating. vonnie: well the return is something like 70%, but that does not compare very favorably. drew: perhaps if the market was more up and down, they would be delivering more outperformance. but you need the market to be

rising for these ipo's to be happening at all. you wonder how things have to be in the market to welcome ipo's in. romaine: a new listing recently returned about 70% over the past decade. if i had just bought into the s&p 500, what would i have gotten? drew: if you instead took your money and bought into every ipo, you would only be up about 70%, and that assumes you put more money into bigger deals and less into smaller deals. vonnie: the more recent ipo's seemed to bomb. drew: we have typically seen larger ipo's be the ones that did outperform. in the last year or so, we have seen deals like uber and lyft not do well at all. others like wework could not

even get off the ground. romaine: we did have some big winners here. alibaba. facebook turned out pretty well, right? drew: absolutely. a certain fear of missing out. maybe i should invest in uber. that is the mentality that fuels the continued demand. vonnie: will 2020 be the year for the likes of doordash, airbnb, pelletier? drew: it seems like 2020 will be the year for a lot of these names. they are expected to go public next year. to cash out, but -- romaine: one of the big stories this year was the idea that a lot of the companies coming to

market were so mature, so a lot of the growth being offered had already been done in the company. drew: that problem is not going anywhere. you have people who have been in for years and years, shareholders and employees hoping to get some money for all their hard work. vonnie: i was surprised about stripe. romaine: the payments are hot. coming up here, a clear warning to tehran. we are going to speak to america's special representative to the country. brian hoke is joining us next. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: time for a look at what stories are trending across the bloomberg universe. the 30 year old company struggling with increased competition and inability to keep pace with american buyers. have nots suvs undergone a model change in decades. as manyot won over cross shoppers as the company had hoped. uber.com has a story on the topics of the year for net -- bloomberg.com has a story on the top picks of the year for netflix. they are relying more than ever on their own programming. the most popular was comedy movie "murder mystery" and the season three of the hit sci-fi

show "stranger things." sharon stone is now back on the dating app bumble after being kicked off. sharon stone's profile was flagged as fake. star said instinct" she begged them to reinstate her profile. assuredured -- they sharon stone that she would not be blocked again. yesterday's debt yesterday, the u.s. launched terror strikes on five bases and they carried with them a message. the move coming after several recent attacks on the coalition operating in the region. secretary of state mike pompeo weighed in. was aay, what we did

decisive response that made clear that we will not stand for the islamic republic of iran to take actions that put american men and women in jeopardy. chief washington correspondent is with us now from washington, d.c. >> we are joined by brian hoke. we heard about those airstrikes. how will that change the balance of power in the region? brian: we have american troops that are in iraq for a specific mission, to ensure the enduring defeat of isis. those troops are located at iraqi military bases. over the past two months, there have been almost a dozen attacks by iranian proxies against those bases. a couple of days ago, an american was killed, a number of americans were injured, and a

number of iraqis were injured. as an active defense, the president ordered airstrikes, three in iraq, two in syria. irane sending a message to that they need to end this. >> telling them to stay in their lane. brian: exactly. this is the last revolutionary regime on earth. the president has made clear that he has shown a lot of restraint. we also made clear that we will take decisive action if there is an injury or harm to our personnel or interests. spoken maximumd pressure campaign against tehran. i hear what you're saying, i read the reports, and i am curious, they would appear that more sanctions are likely on the

table in the short term. right now, iran is facing its worst financial crisis in its 40 year history as the islamic republic of iran. in less iran starts behaving like a normal nation, you will see plenty more sanctions. we have put in place pressure. they are deep into a recession. we have collapsed their oil exports, we have collapsed all of the foreign direct investment into iran. we will continue to drive the pressure on the regime. >> more sanctions would still happen. brian: very likely. >> meanwhile, there are protests throughout the region. however they been influencing in the as a proxy force region. brian: you have seen protests in

iran, iraq, and lebanon at the same time. in all three countries, the consistent thread is opposition to the iranian regime. the people in all of these countries are tired of iran's model of corruption and sectarian violence, and also terrible economic conditions. this is a regime that prioritizes ideology over the well-being of their own people. whenever they going to countries like lebanon or iraq, it makes things worse for the people of those countries. pompeoetary of state mentioned that the united states have submitted something like 36,000 tips and submissions, and that the administration has been using these submissions to piece together some of these horrific human rights violations. what is that number up to now?

45,000.t is now up to when the protests started, we stood with the iranian people. the president and secretary of state very clearly expressed their support. the secretary also created essentially a tip box for iranians to submit photos, videos, and messages of regime violence against its own people. we have had 45,000 submissions done through telegram. weeks ago, when i spoke with you after that exchange of prisoners, you worked virtually around-the-clock to get that individual released. it appeared that maybe there was going to be a glimmer of hope, that people -- that things would be trending in a positive direction. do you still have that hope or have events of the past 24 hours

kind of walked it back? brian: we have two tracks. getting americans wrongly detained back to their loved ones, the united states, and the other track is where we are advancing our national security objectives. missile threat, regional aggression, and hostage of americans. we are going to continue these tracks. we will continue our campaign of maximum economic pressure. >> back to you in new york. romaine: our thanks to chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli. breaking news on the ukraine and russia. this is that gazprom deal being signed, confirmed by president zelensky as well as the ceo of gazprom. this will allow russia to continue exporting natural gas

to europe through those pipelines that cut through ukraine. vonnie: coming up, department stores have had a dismal 2019 while discounters have seen hope. hope.

>> let's get the first word. former nissan renault chairman is no longer under house arrest in japan. he has arrived his parents state of lebanon that was unclear if he escaped house arrest or if a deal had arranged for his release. prosecutors federal charging the man arrted for a stabbing of several peop during hanukkah celebration. officials say the man burst into a home of a hasidic rabbi on saturday night and wounded five people with a large knife.

wvil rights icon john lewis diagnosed with stage four pancreatic cancer. the most senior black lawmaker in congress is 79 years old. he said he has never faced a fight like this one. in 1955, he was beaten by alabama police during a civil rights march and suffered a skull fracture. the u.s. fires airstrikes on five bases in iraq and syria, which are used by irani backed officials. u.s. secretary of state mike pompeo weighing in on the strikes. a today, what we did was take decisive response that makes clear what president trump has said for months and months, which is that we will not stand for the islamic republic of iran to take actions that put american men and women in jeopardy. >> global news 24 hours a day on air and at quicktake by

bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. many retailers had a year to forget. department stores with the worst performing sector in the s&p 500 this year, and retailers like macy's and cap were among the poorest performers in the index. will retailers bounce back in 2020? here to discuss, michael brown. it was kind of an interesting year for retailers because we kind of saw the consumer .pending trend being healthy there onnsumer was out a spending spree. what we are seeing is the legacy players. what she is looking for and the value that she wants.

,> what more can you tell them that macy's underwent a massive restructuring of its headquarters, for example, in new york city, and even that did not seem to work for macy's. michael: what is happening in the market right now is fragmentation. there are so many digitally native startups. 20 or 30 of them attacking the entire sector and that just kills the profit margin. the amazonnly effect, it is these digital natives taking share and continuing to take share over the next few years. to be a successful retailer, you could just have a successful online strategy, you had to meld those together, pick up those items, drop them off. michael: we call that taking back ground.

walmart and target did a good job of bringing them together. they are convenient, quick. it is more convenient than waiting for a grocery item at home. that integration has really brought it together. that is true omni-channel. just having a true business isn't enough that is dual channel. vonnie: that is the whole problem potentially for the players that compete directly with amazon. theyou have some of exclusively digitally native players opening up a storefront. >> it is critical for them because you are not going to reach scale alone. they serve as billboards. to get the scale, the digitally

native companies are going to be able to grow to 300, 400 stores over the coming years. romaine: what about the cost structure? with the other return programs and customer experience, they would committee pretty high expense. >> the free shipping and free returns has become very expensive. next year, retailers will try to correct that. they have chased amazon for years because everyone believes amazon will give free two day shipping, free one day shipping, and free returns. it is not free. they give them to their prime customers. ones piloting that right now. you will pay about a $125 a year membership fee, special services, special access. vonnie: it is sounding way too much like a streaming war for me. what does a consultant say to

the likes of a kroger or grocery store? michael: they are competing in a completely different space, competing with consumers changing food preferences. consumers are not cooking at home anymore. they need to move toward in-store quick serve restaurants that will serve whether the -- serve how the consumer is eating. grocery is not going to cut it anymore. it has got to be prepared food. statistice saw one saying this was like the worst year for one brick-and-mortar business in a single year. numbers reported were about 9500 closures and about what five openings, still about a 5000 net loss. i think we will see an acceleration of closures. there will be a change of a

number of stores that will have to look at liquidating or reducing back. we'll see an acceleration of digitally native companies opening up stores as well. vonnie: there is still truth to the fact that if you do everything right, you will get customers through the door. aboutl: we are talking becoming a platform. him ind to engage her or various different ways, with content, community, insights, services. just selling products or not enough. products are ubiquitous. you can get them anywhere. vonnie: thank you very much. coming up new faces for the fomc. hound nouveau voters will influence policy for 2020. -- how new voters will influence policy for 2020. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: even though the expectation is that the fed will keep rates steady next year, the incoming voting members could still impact policy. peter, we are talking about loretta, patrick, kaplan, and neil. what will these people bring to the table? kashkari is the dove. he has been saying that monetary policy needs to be easier to keep the economy growing.

he is not worried about inflation, he is worried about growth. the unemployment rate could go lower. that is going to be a strong message. it is important direct that he has been on tv, been on bloomberg, speaking at fomc meetings. the difference now is he has a vote. there is a dove going off of the fomc, tim bullard from st. louis. vonnie: what happens? to -- there are still plenty of people out there suffering. do they still have a case? peter: i think they do. it is hard for people to wrap their minds around the fact that inflation could be so low when the unemployment rate is so low.

it remains just not fitting the worldview of a lot of people whose minds were set in the 60's, 70's, 80's, and 90's. romaine: this is relatively minor tinkering, routine tinkering. we had a minor change in the fomc. do we think christine lagarde will make a valiant attempt to pull them out? peter: she is not going to rush. i think it would be a mistake. mario draghi, his last action was to ease. she is not going to turn around and undo what her predecessor did. use sincestrategic 2003. they will be looking at things like, what should their target the. right now, they are looking for it to be close to 2%.

2% is your target. airing on either side is equally good or equally bad. tonie: you definitely have get to know central banking language. a lot of work ahead of her this first year of her tenure. overall, do we see as many moves as we did this year? peter: if we look at the projection for interest rates, it is flat as a board. ecb, the bankhe rightland reserve, just a where they are, stand flat. sweden of out of negative territory to zero. the fact that this might be a

first attempt by a central bank -- peter: that will be closely watched. one of the issues that a country like sweden with an open economy has, when they raise rates like that, it can start sucking capital. that puts pressure on the kroner which weakens the economy. it will be something to watch. vonnie: peter, thank you. turning to banks now, goldman sachs is providing a push for banking on middle-market companies. the wall street firm is -- has hired more than a dozen managing directors from competitors in the recent months. not admit they would to that.

haveey can say that we hired from jp morgan and barclays. andorgan in particular, wells fargo, are two places where they also have big regional expertise. they are trying to do something they have done with very large deals, that is hire people that know the code -- no the companies well that they want to service and have deep relationships. romaine: this is still goldman sachs. they have a pretty well-known brand name a reputable one. why wasn't that enough to do this? goldman's revenue over the past few quarters has been somewhat volatile. that shows that this kind of strategy can help keep a lot of -- not to mention, a lot of the capital that we will see being

deployed is private equity firms, not to mention smaller private equity firms that are big targets for goldman sachs. i think there is a lot of room to run in this industry overall. jp morgan has had the survey for a long time. i think that is remarkably interesting because as jp morgan begins to build this type of business in europe, they are building with the likes of lincoln international but also deutsche bank. some of these big u.s. banks, let's see if they are successful in moving the strategy overseas. romaine: do we have a sense if the strategy is off yet or is it too early to make that assessment? sonali: if you look at the goldman deal count last year, the average deal size was a lot smaller than some of their peers. they worked on big deals but also small deals.

for were still number one three years in a row in terms of m&a volume. their deal size is getting smaller. vonnie: all you have to do is get the best talent though is pay them, right? it is a very easy message. sonali: this long into a bull run, it is remarkable how much the cost of bankers stayed very stable. loki, their compensation ratio tends to be quite high compared to a lot of their peers. you are exactly right. you have the resources to pay these bankers. romaine: what i love about this story is that quote dave talks aboutd he recruiting athletes, all of these sports metaphors. sonali: typically use that kind of terminology with the big star bankers, and pfizer, cody, these

big blue-chip companies. romaine: we are like athletes here. vonnie has been on the air for five hours now. maybe we should leave it there. thank you. bloomberg's sonali basak. let's get a quick check of the headlines. some of the biggest 2019 gainers in the information technology sector fell today. roku dropped as much as 5%. -- arevices are using used for streaming tv services. 150% ins risen almost 2019 and is the biggest gainer in the s&p 500. lexus does not have much to celebrate in the u.s. this year. 30 years ago, the debut of toyota's luxury brand shocked automakers. it has not been the market leader in the u.s. since 2010

and market share has fallen to 13%. lexus has been hurt by an aging vehicle lineup, increased competition, and inability to keep pace with bigger suvs. the billionaire index, the world's 500 wealthiest people, added $1.2 trillion to their fortunes. amazon founder jeff bezos still tops the list. he is worth $116 billion, just ahead of bill gates. youngestner became the self-made billionaire this year. .hat is your latest romaine: coming up, it is almost new year's eve in asia. china's decision to adopt a new interest rate regime. more on that ahead. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: time for social climbers, the stocks making waves in social media today. neo surging more than 60% today. the chinese electric vehicle maker released a fourth-quarter forecast that some estimates. netflix touting original programming. releases thisop year were things they produced. finally, disney led the box office in the final weekend of a strong year. star wars brought in $73 million this weekend come out shining the -- this weekend, outshining ."vies like "little women

vonnie: china's central bank ordering lenders to adopt a new pricing for all lending in 2020. bloomberg's shery ahn is here with the story. is the regime effectively a rate cut? shery: it seems to be the side effect of their liberalizing of the financial system are moving toward that liberalization. a long priceing regime to kick in in january. the one year lending rates would be the line in white. that is being abolished. what is happening is that this will all be converted to a new rate, which is the line in red, and effectively the 20 basis points lower. ofabout $22 trillion outstanding loans will be affected and given lower costs. romaine: there is a bigger story

about china trying to liberalize financial markets. shery: it all starts with the long prime rate. the way they are getting that pricing is from 18 banks that give them pricing to their best customers and then they gather the information from the market. this is one aspect of the liberalizing of the financial market. we have already seen tons of news, china itself advertising that they are trying to open up the financial system to foreign companies. in january with the futures market. we have seen come in 2018, a seen, company -- we have in 2018, a german company get the green light. there are still so many restrictions in the chinese market including making unhedged bets against the market. there is less foreign interest

still, it shows you that beijing is becoming more comfortable with competition from foreign companies. vonnie: it is fascinating. we have been getting fairly strong data even as many are calling for a sub 6% gdp growth. shery: 6% is still pretty good, right? we are seeing some recovery and stabilization. we are expecting manufacturing and nonmanufacturing pmi numbers. we have seen a huge rebound in the previous month. this month, we are still expecting a little bit of a fall from that number. he could retreat a little bit in december 2 around 50.1%. still, that expansionary line of 50. we are expecting the pmi numbers later this week. romaine: the challenges from the pboc, stagflation, pork prices, what else? shery: pork prices are surging.

prices, leaving little room for the pboc to maneuver. vonnie: shery ahn, thank you for joining. for more on these stories, don't miss daybreak australia and daybreak asia. here is something else you don't want to miss. u.s. bond markets tomorrow closing early. 2:00 p.m. eastern. will we see the spread coming in a little bit? romaine: everyone around the world ringing in 2020 with new year's eve celebrations. vonnie: we will be bringing you some of them on this program. romaine: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ taylor: i'm taylor riggs in san francisco, in for emily chang, and this is "bloomberg technology." the tech sector dominates in 2019. how will it perform in 2020? predictionsvery under the microscope as the carmaker starts local deliveries

in china. we will have the latest. card controversy. though touted as