romaine: as we hear the closing bell, we should point out, up 2% on the day. the dow is up 1%. s&p also up 0.7%. the nasdaq composite continues its run. i believe we are at record highs for all three of these. the russell 2000 down 0.1%. transports are higher on the date. 0.8%. joe: look at that russell. romaine: continued to watch that. then, let's dive deeper into the action. abigail? >> i'm watching those haven assets, rallying with stocks.

take a look at the 10 year yield . of most interest is the japanese yen. the dollar falling against the yen. 1.10 two go from current levels. to believee reason that yen will continue to strengthen. the important piece is the top and bottom. the dollar-yen coming off the top of that range, going below its 50 day, 200 day, hitting that 100 day, so buyers trying to support it, but the greater implication may be a move back towards this range. investors are going towards

the yen, it could suggest risk off, something to keep for sure. king dollar was the big narrative in 2019-2020. it might reverse. what does that mean for emerging markets? emerging markets should see a bid going into 2020. this is a jp morgan emerging bond index, two straight months of inflows. we continue to see asset allocation outside the u.s. into these markets as they play catch up following those trade tensions we saw last year. >> thanks. commodities joining that rally today. i'm looking at cotton futures also up. these are higher on stockpile slumps. the latest report shows

stockpiles slumped to their lowest since 2017. this happens as australia faces a drought amid wildfires. among the top cotton producers in the world. one said improved u.s.-china relations are helping to boost prices today. joe: thank you. still with us is our cross asset reporter in the ubs managing director. to high netpeak worth individuals all the time. about dynamics with respect positioning. whicha year like 2019, was fantastic if you were

heavily invested in u.s. equities. do people want to chase it further? i would say if you rewind and told people you s&pd have a 30% rise in the , they would say you are absolutely crazy. for the market to move higher now, show me the earnings. a lot of people i talked to are tha.ct that >> we are seeing record highs for the s&p, nasdaq, and dow indexes. alphabet, apple, microsoft at record highs. why this is not as sensational as many would have thought is you can see that for

every day for a month or more. at what point is this concerning for people and has there been enough of a mood shift? >> this is something we were discussing earlier. are extremely stretched, yet we are still reaching new heights, so perhaps there is a new normal to be reached. time since a long economic performance was driving stockmarket growth. there is a relationship underway, and that might mean more gains. are 20 two times -- 22gs on the s&p 500 times earnings on the s&p 500. jason, what are people pricing into the market at this point. >> the tailwinds have become headwinds.

brexit, the fed, but what next? it has to be earnings delivery. the street is at 10%, which seems high. we are at 5%. mostne: the market spent of last year ignoring earnings. gainedket shouldn't have 20 8%, 29%. way oftill an efficient trying to read things? >> i think so. last year was making up for the lost ground, and people discount the benefit of the tax reform. , to getnd of the day earnings higher, all these leaders supposedly sitting on their hands have to start increasing capital expenditure and business investment.

the date the news was stimulus out of china. what is the best way to take advantage of chinese reflation? i think broad-based etf's or funds. emerging markets, which include of theare arguably one most compelling stories for 2020. >> one stock that stands out is apple. it gained the most for a single basin's november, bringing the 3% i thinkturn to 90

it is interesting when people look ahead to next year, there has been talk about how europe what outperform the u.s. analysts say there isn't big tech highly represented in europe. what are you hearing from people in this debate, europe versus u.s. equities? >> european companies don't have the big tech the u.s. does. when i talk to people about europe, it is mostly the economic fundamentals. way out oforking its a rough patch. use also strong figures out of europe overnight. how marketsxample are not trading on fundamentals. your saying that european surprise index at its highest peopleand yet using lower their expectations for european stock returns. joe: is that what it will really

come down to? the test of this year will be whether the economic fundamentals deliver? >> the ultimate test will be how things shape up for the election. joe: that could be a big story. i think that's going to be a big story. i don't think investors should express that view this early in the year, but in the latter part of the year, getting a sense of the democratic the incumbent status quo, that will be the story later this year. joe: we have to remember to

cover the election. "what'd you miss?" is up next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ live from here in new york. here is a snapshot of u.s. stocks. whole indices in record territory. joe: "what'd you miss?" romaine: the topline forecasts

from the biggest financial institutions. carlos ghosn speaks, a stunning escape, but now face the task of clearing his name. facing tough moments as thousands flee coastal towns ravaged by wildfires. ♪ >> the first day of trading in the books. compiled calls for 2020. ise to take at us through it our cross asset reporter. he has probably read all that. >> i have to give full credit to my colleague who did the work for this. which call stood out to you? out isthat stands colombia thread needle, low

growth, long-duration assets, stocks, bonds, good bet, tech tears it up come along bonds do well. one of the anecdotal themes is rest of world outperforming u.s.. you is that backed up when aggregate the notes from everyone? is that a consensus view? >> it is a consensus view. much u.s.onsider how stocks have outperformed over the next decade, we are not calling for more than a drop in the bucket. it is mid single digits for the u.s., then high single digits for the rest of world, em. romaine: there is talk about the reflation trade, but we had this call from aberdeen putting forth

this idea of secular stagnation. down, sayingling this will be the theme for 2020. >> they said the next five years will be low growth, low inflation. you see this backup if you look forwards. the 10 year treasury yield five-year forward rate, throughout this expansion, it has been 2% higher than the current market rate at the time. , 50 basisast year points, so we are still in that area. hugedea we will see a .ackup

joe: let's talk about treasuries. are they expecting higher yields? >> it is more mixed. you can see the general consensus is a slow grind higher in treasury yields. there is a lot of clustering. people don't expect treasury yields to do much of anything in the year ahead, so all the thatines, the one would be .reasury volatility

>> are there any consensus calls that stood out to you? >> on the interest rate side, probably. definition, a consensus call can be bold, but u.s. dollar weakness call, it is a widespread call, but support is a mile wide, but one inch deep. you have those rate differentials they won't move too much. i'm just looking at the past three or four years. u.s. growthabout remaining resilient. if you are extrapolating the most recent trend, that is the

most recent trend. you cover volatility a lot. i'm surprised you're not out of work now. what is your expectation or people telling you with regards to volatility? macroeconomic volatility was low and market volatility was low. you had to high-profile blowups. the market events will be more liquidity-induced nature than macro-induced in nature. you.thank breaking down the consensus for 2020. coming up, a music box, private

jet, and help from lebanon, how carlos ghosn fled japan while awaiting trial. we will discuss the latest details on that. this is bloomberg. ♪

onaine: new details emerging the escape of carlos ghosn. joe: turkish authorities said seven people are being investigated.

bloomberg has the story. thank you for joining us. what is the latest lead investigators are following in terms of how he managed to pull off this escape? there are many leads, or many questions. they are looking into the flight how hetaken, pilots, and managed to leave japan. it came at a time when japan was shutting down for the new year's holidays, so it appears he left there arel time, but many more questions than answers.

all these questions are unknown at this point. tore are not too many leads chase for investigators. >> it is unclear how it would go down. of carloshe question ghosn's tactics. he said no one else was involved. what about his approach to this, which has been incredibly public? >> his idea is to hide in plain sight and say he has nothing to fear and once his case to be tried in the court of public opinion. he plans to do a press conference at some point next week. fromhe was released detention in japan, he promised to hold a press conference and was never able to do so.

you mentioned the family connection. his wife'sontacted brother earlier today and he said the family had no role in it. ofdon't know who was helping them and how much he orchestrated on his own, but we will get the full story in due time. romaine: with regards to the automotive side, we have this alliance and there is some question as to what that alliance will be, the relationship between the french and japanese. does carlos ghosn's absence complicate things? >> it could. he has been out of the picture for more than a year. in terms of the operational details of that alliance, he has left a big vacuum and they are still trying to figure out how to make things work, but you are right.

the japanese and french governments have played a large role in the fortunes of nissan and renault. how they get along going forward in light of this rather embarrassing episode could complicate things for the alliance as they seek to remake it. romaine: thank you. let's check the latest business flash headlines. judge will stop the takeover of sprint. that on questions the judge asked last month. suit has been filed to block the deal on antitrust grounds. dell is releasing software that let's users mirror their iphone screen on dell laptops. private equity is starting the

new year with more cash than ever. capital..5 trillion in that is speculation mergers and acquisition this year could be on a scale not seen since the financial crisis. the love that you hurried ending. i did not ask who would play carlos ghosn. cuomo has directed the extendent of labor to minimum-wage concessions regarding tips to nails and carwashes. comingting to see this at a time of pressure for the gig economy. using the same pressure out west. reminder thatood

there have always been people in , nonguaranteedng uber of work long before came around. we see protections growing for them. >> when we were in europe and had a discussion about the tip economy or should it be baked in or sense of obligation, we are heavy reliant on it. >> i think alec baldwin should play carlos ghosn. coast alsothe west made a suggestion. joe: coming up, 2019 a rough year for hedge funds, but one managed to gain 34%. we will discuss that. this is bloomberg. ♪ whether you're out here on lte

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>> let's get the first word. onbegin with the band flavored vaping products issued by the u.s. fda. prepackageds of all flavored vaping pods will be restricted. today the defense secretary says the united states has indications there may be more iranian attacks. u.s. willppens, the take preemptive action. after an iraqiys militia attempted to break into the u.s. embassy in baghdad. in france, strikes marking the

29th straight day, the longest walk out in the country's history. the protest against the government pension plans are crippling transit services. the french president maintains his commitment to the pension overhaul, but urges the government to find a compromise with unions. in austria, the conservative leader says his party's coalition offers the best of both worlds and will allow both partners to keep their election promises. after a hiatus, he is set to return to power as austria's chancellor. for the first time that green party will join the government. his previous coalition government was the far-right freedom party and it collapsed. global news 24 hours a day on air and at tictoc on twitter powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over than 120 countries. >> thank you. it was a tough year for hedge

funds. here with more is our hedge fund reporter. before we talk about overall returns, one way to look at performances launches versus closure. >> we are on pace for the fifth year with more hedge fund closures than launches. it paints the pictures of how difficult it is for some managers, especially if they are not performing well. we continue to see this unfortunate set of circumstances for many managers. joe: let's talk about the specific winners and losers. david einhorn had a really good year. in 2018, heng gained last year. massively trailing the s&p. they always say you can't

compare to hedge funds so i won't. >> how do you feel about that? turnaround for a fund that was struggling badly in 2018. his three biggest positions on 60%.ong side gained 55%, one is an airline leasing company. , the netflix short has not panned out well. romaine: just to go back to this ,dea of these funds shuttering is it just because of poor performance? when you look at the gains last year, it was the fact that you could have thrown money anywhere and made more than some of the returns out of the hedge funds. >> hedge funds have not been

doing terribly well. last year they were up 6% to 7%. there is a cohort that has done well, but it is small. managers come big along biased, or long the stock market, doing particular well. question on the launches and closures, a number of reasons why funds have shuttered in 29 teen is some struggled to make money, some soul. in 2019 is some struggled to make money, some sold. withey don't want to deal the outside investors anymore and become a family office. one fund that had a bad

s&p isn a year when the up 30%, i'm going to assume a which is an allusion to the apocalypse, horseman capital. >> aren't these funds supposed to be hedged. shouldn't someone say they knew what they were doing. they tried, they failed. romaine: they are still suffering from the kwanzaa hangover. what about launches? is this the environment for it? >> 2018 saw some multibillion-dollar launches. last year we saw a couple. we might see a few at

$1 billion. it is tough out there to raise money for sure. romaine: thanks. thanks to our bloomberg hedge fund reporter. coming up, the future of impeachment, the choices democrats have if the senate acquits president trump in the impeachment trial. we will talk about that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: time now for a look at stories trending across the bloomberg universe. betweenspends a type the shanghai and london stock exchanges. thele say britain stands on protests in hong kong prompted the move, and how it relations precedent will determine whether that link is restored. the timing is unlikely to vehicle incidents. bloomberg.com has a story on florida come expected to control more seats in the u.s. congress the new york. new york and california will each lose a congressional seat due to population decline. florida will be among the biggest winners. quick take five bloomberg kick his reporting grocery stores in mexico city will be fined for

using plastic bags. for plastic bags to biodegrade quickly, but sets no standard. the environment secretary said the fines will range from one or $20 to $8,950. you can follow all these stories in your terminal, bloomberg.com, and quick take. >> thank you. researchers said the average transaction last $34,600 forrecord suv's. 17 millionold vehicles for a fifth year in a row. google says ai can spot breast

cancer more accurately than doctors. of mammograms lead to fewer false positives and negatives. scans,ood at reading often outperforming experts. in amazon workers group is at odds with their employer. amazon has threatened to fire them if they keep speaking about internalany's affairs. amazon says employees are encouraged to suggest a provement's through internal channels. was your business flash update. time now for smart charts with abigail doolittle. doing an informal look. >> so many great charts were brought to us by top technicians. there were a few that stood out in 2019, but in the later part of the year, here are three.

this one comes from frank apillary on small caps, longer-term chart going back a decade. top, the small cap etf. on bottom, small cap relative to the s&p 500. cap the last decade, small has been underperforming within this channel. frank was pointing out the areas of bottoming in 2012, 24 team, buyinghat represented a opportunity on small caps. he is pointing out the buying opportunity that seems to have appeared at the end of 2019. frank thinks we will see a stockmarket rally in 2020. he thinks small cap is the more attractive place to put money. another chart that has stood out

comes to us from bank of america merrill lynch. the small cap relative -- excuse me,nd long bond relative to small cap. he is making the point we could be in an area where the long bond is going to outperform small cap. if that occurred, it would probably be risk off. we see that in the early 1990's, early 2000s, then the financial crisis where bonds were outperforming small caps. off the risk on period. it appears we have put in a bottom there as well. it will be interesting to see whether they are correct. two powerful charts to keep in mind. this is a long-term one.

oppenheimer brought to us in emerging markets chart i'm trying to pull up, but it is not pulling up. we will have some assistance from the control room ringing up this chart. he has been bullish. october 2019, he was especially bullish on em, saying it was an area to look to for rotation. huge downtrende in bottoming base. he's making the point at the end of 2019 and 2019, an area of resistance was taken out that lead to gains and we have a similar area of resistance taken out here, suggesting emerging markets as they have been rallying recently, so he called that correctly in october, he likes the emerging markets is one area of outperformance and 2020. joe: thank you for bringing us

the charts. as nancy pelosi and mitch mcconnell remain locked in a standoff over details of president trump's impeachment trial, the bloomberg opinion columnist and author of only one thing can save us is urging democrats to file a suit to prevent the president from going to any foreign government. he joins us from chicago. thank you for joining us. everyone knows it is a virtual certainty that assuming the articles of impeachment are sent over, trump will almost 70 be acquitted. you argue the democrats have another move. what is it? >> they have a civil action they can bring to protect our first amendment rights to free and fair election without government-sponsored dirty tricks. this is a government-sponsored

dirty trick, the president violating congressional directive to give military aid in order to get foreign government help in his campaign, which is independently illegal. the government-related misconduct impairs our right under the first amendment to of free and fair election without government-related government and without government interference. >> there is a contradiction here with respect to the increasing number of lawsuits filed in the increasing apathy by the public. i'm wondering if perhaps this is the right legal way to go. doesn't it seem we are sick of it and let's move on? >> public sentiment is fatalistic. about that part of the public that is not for trump or and to rabidly

anti-trump. they have given up that the system is fixed in rig. this suit would say this is not right. rig yet.nde we don't have to have the government putting its thumb on is election outcome, which the most apocalyptic thing you can have happen in a republican a, the government intervened to control the outcome of the election. that is what has to stop. i want to play devil's advocate. we have the official reports that say russia and other nations meddled in the election. a lot of that was media and social media, the idea of changing minds. there was no evidence they meddled in the actual vote.

there are some people who would say it is not really rig. people get to make their own decisions. why don't we play this out in court rather than the court of public opinion? >> the focus of this suit is simple. this is government-related's conduct. tois one thing for brush come in and independently back to influence the election. it is another thing for trump in 2016 to solicit them to come in as a private person, but this is the president acting in his official capacity, to use our laws and military aid to get foreign governments to get on board to his election campaign. this is the first amendment we are talking about. it is just getting the .overnment off our backs it is government-related misconduct that will influence the outcome of the election. we have a right to be free of it. joe: let's say democrats take

your advice and do this. what does it ultimately accomplish? is it political? is there something the courts could do? or is it about making sure this risk, this threat is a thing the remains talked about and understood by the public between now and november? >> the purpose is to get trump to back off. if the senate acquits him, he will feel free to do this again. don't think he won't. he doesn't play by the normal rules. the first purpose is back off. in other words coming get an order from a federal district court that says you can't go to foreign governments and get them involved in the election, which is independently illegal under federal statutes. you can't use the powers of your directivesgovernment or congressional directives to give military aid as a way of interfering with this. then you have the president

under an injunction, but also the people around him subject that injunction. in other words, they have to report it if they see it, or they will be held in contempt, so it is enforceable. >> thank you for being with us in eliminating your ideas and opinions. he is a bloomberg opinion columnist and author the book, only one thing can save us. coming up, angry residents heckling the australian prime minister over wildfires. this week. the latest is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ joe: now to the wildfires in in australia.

in oure, let's bring reporter. extraordinary images and data. what is the immediate situation on the ground in terms of what has to be done? victoriauth wales and took the biggest hit. sixs are burning across australian states. things are looking bad. 2500 buildings destroyed. 19 people killed. >> you could say this is driven by the driest year on record. per minister morrison has received heavy criticism. why? temperatures expected to top 100 degrees fahrenheit. prime minister morrison

champions the coal industry and downplays the link between climate change and the fires. he has received heavy criticism for his position and general messaging. him days after declaring a national emergency, taking off for a family vacation in hawaii. the images ofof people heckling him has more to do with the lack of measures taken by the austrian government . these images are now trending in australia at the moment, this a reference to the fact he puts . positive spin to everything he was head of tourism for australia, so people not happy to put a positive spin on the crisis.

fire fightings in australia is based on volunteers. it is a sentry-old system. you don't have fires raging all long.ron it started early, but has been lasting longer, but we haven't seen there might be enough support to control the blazes. australia has asked the u.s. and for more support, especially aviation equipment. this will put the limelight on global firefighting. fires are starting earlier and lasting longer. joe: you mentioned they asked for support. countries reject international support. >> it is clear that it can use the help.

we know australia in the united states have a strong alliance. we are expecting more firefighters from the u.s. and canada to arrive in australia. at the moment, it is a tough situation, the government trying to help these volunteer firefighters. new south wales has agreed to pay compensation to these volunteer firefighters up to $4200 for privately employed volunteers. the federal government saying more states could adopt this. joe: thank you. for more of these stories, don't miss daybreak australia and --break don't miss this. the fed announcing its minutes. we will be speaking to loretta mester. romaine: i will look at ism data for december at 10:00 a.m. eastern time. sales for automobiles

tomorrow. that is all for "what'd you miss?" joe: have a great evening. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> i am taylor riggs. this is bloomberg technology. californiathe consumer privacy act is in effect, but not without controversy. cybersecurity in 2020, what new threats lurk