there are a lot of differences between the u.s. and china the needs to be resolved, echoing the market's lukewarm enthusiasm. xpo logistics thing into strategic options like selling or spinning off its businesses. we will speak to ceo brad jacobs. and morgan stanley, it's your turn. big banks beat estimates. stocks go nowhere. morgan stanley now on deck. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this thursday, january 16. i'm alix steel. in the markets, it doesn't feel like there will be a lot of conviction after that signing of the phase one trade deal. yesterday ended pre-much flat. -- ended pretty much flat. one thing that could be helping the market, the people's bank of china said that overall financing expanded almost 11% last year in china, so that liquidity always a good thing when it comes to investor sentiment. time for global exchange, where we bring you today's market moving news from around the world.

from istanbul to london to washington, our bloomberg voices are on the ground with this morning's top stories. we begin with a pause in the trade war. president trump hailed the signing of the 86 page document as an important step towards a fairer trade deal with china. we take a momentous step, one that has never been taken before with china, toward a future of fair and reciprocal trade as we side phase one -- as we sign phase one of the historic trade deal between the united states and china. alix: joining me on the phone from washington is shawn donnan, bloomberg trade reporter. what is the day to story -- the day two story? some: there are already question about china's purchase commitments. we heard overnight a real emphasis on the role of the market in this, saying they will live up to these commitments if

it is with chinese consumer demand and if the prices are right. that is not what the trump administration wants to hear. secondly, a lot of tariffs remain in place, and there are big questions about phase two. president trump emphasizing yesterday he would keep tariffs in place on 300 $60 billion in imports, about 2/3 of imports from china, and that those would remain in place until he gets a phase two. tacklease two would some of the most difficult issues that china did not want to touch in phase one and has resisted u.s. pressure on. therefore, a lot of businesses will have to prepare for a new normal, which is really these tariffs staying in place for the for seeable future, and certainly until after the u.s. presidential election. alix: thank you very much. now we go to turkey, where the central bank slowed its easing, toting the benchmark rate

11.25% from 12%. the lira is gaining on that news. u.s. dollar-lira lower. joining us is bloomberg economy and government reporter. what did you make of this sort of pause in the rate cut? reporter: turkey's central bank opted for the smallest interest rate cut since it started in easing cycle under a new governor in july. -- wase was in lie with in line with expectations, and they have probably done so in an attempt to demand further easing from president erdogan against the risk of a parsable -- the risk of a possible market backlash. it raised turkeys buffers against market selloff by pushing real rates below zero, like in japan or the u.k. this could mean a slower pace of rate cuts in the months ahead as

the governor pledged to offer reasonable real rates to investors. alix: thank you so much. now we turn to russia. president vladimir putin replacing his long serving prime minister with a low profile head of the federal tax service. he also called for sweeping constitutional changes that could allow him to extend his two decade rule. walk us through the significance. as you said, putin announced a raft of proposals to change the constitution yesterday. he's in somewhat of a hurry to get those introduced. they would effectively increase the powers of parliament, limit some of the powers of the president, and boost a body called the state council, and that has led to speculation that this may be the first step in a plan to give putin a chance to continue running the country after 2024, when, by the

constitution, he is obliged to stand down as president. putin himself has said no such thing, but it is thought this is the first step in such a program. minister,ed his prime who is currently in the russian parliament answering questions, and there will be a vote on his confirmation later today. he has said he will look to focus on implementing the national project, which is supposed to take up the next three or four years. and is a priority for him something putin criticized his predecessor on. alix: thank you very much. now to the latest on oil. the international energy agency says oil supply from iraq is potentially vulnerable amid rising risks in the country. joining me for more is annmarie hordern in london.

walk us through some of the details of the report. annmarie: that potentially vulnerable supply on a rocky production is what everyone is talking about. he heard this before from -- on iraqi production is what everyone is talking about. we heard this before from the iea. what is worrisome is they are the second top producer, and they rely heavily on the strait of hormuz to get production out, mostly to asia, china, and india. when we see tensions in the gulf , the big question now becomes what does the group do when they meet in march? how is a rock, which is supposed -- how is it -- how is iraw, who is supposed to be -- how is iraq, who is supposed to be complying, going to deal with more cuts?

in september, they didn't comply. they are hoping the group comes more into line with january numbers, but this will be a focal point leading into the position. alix: thank you. turning now to a tech bellwether. taiwan semiconductor beat earnings above estimates. strong results show how it is investing in the future and looking ahead to rollout 5g worldwide. this is their net cash flow from investing. joining us for more, alex webb, bloomberg tech opinion columnist. alex: it is a manufacturer of semiconductors, but it doesn't for other people. when apple releases a new iphone and brags about the latest chip, that is made by them in taiwan. it also includes one of their biggest customers, huawei.

is u.s.-chinese tension right now. there's bans on huawei equipment in various areas of the world. there was concern that it would be caught up in some of that crossfire. what they are saying is not only was the most recent quarter better than analysts expected, but the outlook was better-than-expected. that points towards perhaps less of an impact from huawei than the worst estimates expected, with the company saying they expect to be able to take in orders from others who are noting out the 5g network and delivering 5g to offset any potential decline from huawei. alix: thanks so much. finally, we end on u.s. politics. the articles of impeachment will head to the senate. willresident and democrats battle over a small group of republicans who will determine the outcome of the impeachment trial. in order that:

they may present and exhibit the articles of impeachment against donald john trump, president of the united states. alix: 20 from the white house is kevin cirilli, bloomberg chief washington correspondent. what happens now? kevin: at noon today, house impeachment managers will read formerly to the senate the two articles of impeachment facing president trump at 2:00 p.m. new york time. supreme court chief justice john roberts will be sworn in, and the jurors will have to be sworn in as well. i can tell you that in terms of the impeachment managers, i've got my eye on a couple of them, including hakeem jeffries, democrat from new york. he chairs the democratic caucus and is largely seen as a rising star within the democratic party. val jennings another rising star, a democrat from florida. and house committee chairman -- and house intelligence committee chairman adam schiff. watch to see how they navigate

these political waters. you mentioned the republicans up for reelection, senators like susan collins from maine. also keep an eye out for lisa murkowski from alaska. they've said before that on the rules, they are going to be able to secure whether or not there is going to be witnesses that are called during this trial, but also look out for centrist democrats. look for senator joe mansion, i democrat for virginia, a state president trump by double mvon's -- senator joe from westdemocrat virginia, a state president digits.n by double alix: one other story that caught my eye is just how american food exports can weigh in from the trade deal.

is going to be a big seller, no doubt. chinese pork prices have neatly doubled over the past year because of swine fever. also, the import a lot of seafood. these orange bars are china's imports of food in the u.s.. the blue bars are imports from and the yellow bars are the rest of exports for china. you could see a supply crunch. china does have a big appetite for all of this, so worldly be enough supply to go around -- so will there be enough supply to go around? coming up, we are moment's away from morgan stanley fourth-quarter results. did they join the big banking trading come back? that's next. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ alix: we are moment away from morgan stanley fourth-quarter results. joining the onset new york, allison williams, as well as sonali basak. and joining me from boston, jeff kleintop, charles schwab chief --bal investment strategist investment strategist. what is the number one thing you're looking for? alison: new targets. we want to see what the new goal is for this year, especially returns on tangible equity, but on the cost guidance, obviously with the fourth-quarter results, everyone is expecting that to be -- to beo be for k-pop fic.k-pop -- to be

sonali: what were they looking at before? improving barge men's in wealth management, improving the asset management unit -- improving margins in wealth management, improving the asset management. alix: adjusted eps crushes at, coming in at $1.20. that seems like an unbelievable beat. revenues, we've got investment banking revenue, $1.7 billion. you also have the wealth management net revenue beating estimates, $4.6 billion. equity sales and trading, a tiny bit light, but still super in-line, $1.92 billion. fic blowing it out, $1.9 billion. there's no number i see that sees any weakness.

alison: i see one, the wealth pretax margin. is, is there a charge there? sonali, i think you have reported on the fact that they have been doing these cuts, and there was expectation there would be a charge. so i guess that is my question. what is going on there? alix: since you got agrees -- since you guys agreed on what it was, i didn't actually get what was. sonali: it is actually below their strategic guidance they had given at the end of last year. when you were talking about that strategic guidance before, i recall mike mayo saying, hey, you are blowing through all of our expectations. are you going to raise the bar for yourself? so do not hit that margin in this business now, let's see what they are saying in there update them what they want to do next. alison: it is a pretty big drop from last quarter, which is why i think there could be a charge there. that is sort of to a

point. you never want to say it is as good as it gets. pricell have the asset this past quarter, but interest rates are less of a challenge going forward. charge was going to be about $200 million, according to people familiar with the matter. remember, morgan stanley is the shop on wall street cutting 2% of their headcount here. that might be potentially what is weighing in here. alix:alix: are we being a little nitpicky with this, or to the point that things are just so good come of the numbers are so high, that it is going to be these things that are going to be able to help you make investments? alison: the wealth pretax margin is a pretty important goal for them. that has been a pretty big focus for them. they've increased their focus on that business, and that's been a

really great story for them. so again, just want to hear a little bit about what is going on there. big cyclicaltwo factors that have been helping them. also going to want to hear about what is going on in equities. both jp morgan and goldman sachs talked about prime and cash equities doing really well. those are businesses where morgan stanley is also a leader. my guess is we saw some strikes there. derivatives has not been as strong. alix: i think you are pointing theut also, sonali, that fourth-quarter was affected by prices. what and where do you like in the banks/financial sector? thing, like the whole and this is an important story. got wealth management, investment banking, trading, but look at the interest rate environment.

that may improve this year. has been managing costs throughout all this and still seeing good results. financials has not been a great place to invest for years, but they are starting to show signs of life. could be a leadership sector this year, may be taking leadership away from technology as some of the u.s.-china battles margin to that story. sonali: fic trading revenue more than doubled, and the reason it is important is because they are making a lot of investment in that business. they really transformed their equities business by investing a .ot in technology they've been looking to make huge strides in fixed income, and you can see that showing up here. in pure numbers, they are much , but theyan jp morgan

are doing pretty good at 1.3 year. alison: all the banks are benefiting from comparisons to a expectations, so weren't set they would have sort of a 70% jump or so. sonali points out one of the areas that has been strong for the banks that some of the other banks have noted has been securitization and structure in the types of products that get help from taking spreads, so that likely would benefit morgan stanley as well. alix: have we learned anything's yet on earnings season? how sustainable can a rally be? how do we get better earnings estimates from here? think there's been a lot of pessimism from cfos and ceos, particularly in the fourth quarter. ceos expecting a

recession in 2020. that was a couple of months ago. economic indicators, but what does 2020 look like? i think that could be an upbeat tone. alix: final thoughts? alison: a little bit of insight into where some of these halfing -- where some of the staffing changes were. a bigger portion going to the institutional business, smaller to wealth, and that has been in line with the industry chen we have seen -- the industry trend we have seen. it is a big story that i think we see more of in 2020. sonali: by the way, that efficiency ratio is still high, --the market last fic doubled from

year. jeff kleintop of charles schwab will be sticking with me. much more coming up here. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." we begin with car sales in europe. last month, they jumps to a record. upcoming penalties at the end of causing sales to sore= -- two soar up. tsmc posting fourth-quarter earnings that were better than expected. taiwan's largest company is tech tong in make sure it maintains its market lead. hedge fund manager kyle bass

convinced hong kong it is headed for financial disaster. bass telling bloomberg this year, citi will suffer -- telling bloomberg this year, the city will suffer a full-fledged banking crisis. still, one measure of the city's financial stock is near an all-time high despite months of antigovernment protests. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. one more story that caught my eye was president trump thanking some of the biggest u.s. companies after signing the new trade deal with china, bullet came to jp morgan -- with china, but when it came to jp morgan, he wanted a little more recognition for himself. pres. trump: j.p. morgan chase. they just announced earnings, and they were incredible. they were very substantial. will you say thank you, mr. president, at least? [laughter] pres. trump: i made a lot of bankers look really good. alix: several hours before jp morgan posted the most

profitable year in backing. meyers wait for the seth take on that one. as we had to break, s&p futures up by 0.3%. it is hard to say what is leading that. maybe it is momentum. trading doubled from a year ago. a kind of liquidity story feeding through the market. other than that, currencies pretty much soft. the bond market soft as well. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." morgan stanley a few minutes ago putting some upside follow-through to the s&p. morgan stanley having a stiller beat in fic -- a stiller beat in

fic. the dax a little bit softer despite really strong december auto sales out of europe. switch of the board. not a lot of movement. the dollar is a little weaker overnight, and then the yuan moving a little higher on that. bond market not really moving. you had a lot of aggregate financing for china. how can -- can that be repeated? time now for bloomberg first take, where we give you the news and you get the trade and analysis of the markets. joining me are vincent cignarella, for more ethics and rates trader, and gina martin adams. still with us from boston, jeff kleintop, charles schwab chief market investment strategist. what is the day two story for traders? vincent: it is really a nonevent. when you look at the futures markets that should have readily based on this trade deal if we've really felt good about it,

the ag futures come the crude futures, they are going to buy more ag products, they are going to buy more oil, i think markets are just trying to , nothing done. it is all going to happen in phase two. what is going to happen in phase two? trump would probably like it to go after the election, to use it as a bargaining tool. the key to the whole thing is from a corporate standpoint, nothing is going to change until mid spring, so we are really and itwhere we are, is hard for traders to assess. nothing is going to change until april-ish. gina: i agree for the most part, although i think the market was not anticipating the president's commitment to phase two. i don't think the market was anticipating the death of the

intellectual-property discussion. i think those are the two surprises we got yesterday that the market was not necessarily anticipating. what does this mean in terms of real activity? i think we are all going to grapple with that for the near term, that we are in a pretty cushy position of getting to hear what companies suggest is going to mean for the u.s. this does put the degree on some companies to say whether this is meaningful or not, but considering you've had a massive , you've hadtaiwan extreme recovery in tech stocks, specifically syndicate -- specifically semiconductors, now we need to companies to back that up with better earnings growth. we are starting to see it in real economic data. we just need a bit more earnings growth. i think company sentiment really pushes us to that next level. jeff: i think the more important trade agreement this week was on

tuesday, not wednesday's u.s.-china deal. it was the deal between the u.s. and japan addressing these alleged abuses by china. they came to an agreement with agreements on subsidies, force technology transfer, no claiming they will not go it alone in 2020 as they did to address china's alleged abuse. it is going to do this in a combined way, and that means a return to escalation of tariffs. it seems a lot less likely in light of that, that it may just be looking at the surface of this phase i deal. that is good news. it is trade certainty, for one. . vincent: mexican point, and we have the usmca potential he being signed today, which is an .ven bigger trade deal what i found interesting yesterday was the trade deal came out, as expected, more or

less with a few positive surprises. but there was a tweet from foxbusiness saying there were millions of tax cuts . in thes of you sleepy key source. i don't think we can look at the fed any longer as liquidity. the only way the fed stacks it -- the fed steps back in is with the bad news. gina: or you see modest deterioration in economic growth. i think the market is trading on the notion that with the fed did last year to reinflate starts to spread to the rest of the world, and you have this theme of broadening. central banks around the world continue to feel the fire. the fed does still expand the balance sheet, and this is a key

difference between 2017 and 2018. the balance sheet is in incremental support to stocks this year, unlike the situation when markets were in a much more volatile state, but it is not the case of the fed reducing the rate. i would say the fed is still very much a support. alix: let me just get on that because i spoke to robert kaplan yesterday, and finally somebody admitted that the repo thing to expand the balance sheet was playing a role in risky assets. said we need to be finding ways to limit and temporally growth on the fed balance sheet, but i'm confident all of those actions are could to reading to -- i'm confident all of those actions are contributing. there was a result. jeff: obviously there is a factor.

it is not really something where the market is having a problem with it right now. in general, we are not seeing a market that is in need of more qe, at least not out of the u.s. i think the more interesting thing in 2020 is going to be around fiscal stimulus. there's of number -- there's a number of countries talking about budget expansion this year , even germany. i know they are on the green this --ause they have we will hear more from christine lagarde and the ecb later. her pushes more around the fiscal side and burning governments back into the equation. vincent: i totally agree. we saw it when we mentioned tax

cuts. we'll talk about this a little later. one of the places we see a lot of fiscal stimulus and, unfortunately, for the wrong reasons is australia. that is going to drive a lot of growth in asia. alix: when you get things like german gdp, it was better than we thought in the fourth quarter. then you get potentially retail sales. hard thatd it really that implicates a strong push. vincent: regardless of whether we actually get it in 2020, it is going to be promised for 2021. if we don't get the fiscal stimulus from tax cuts from president trump, we may get it somewhere else.

it is going to come from other countries. we may see it in the u.k. through the european space first. gina: i think it is a country by country story, i agree. in the u.s., we are not going to get fiscal stimulus in 2020. we do have a rollback of some of the tech coming, so it will make sense there should be some offset potentially. the rest of the world is also a country by country basis. i think german stimulus is highly unlikely. even if german fiscal stimulus comes through, the work we have done would suggest you are only going to get the teeny, tiny bumps to gdp, so your expectations have to be limited as to what that impact could be, particularly in the short run.

there could be developing and emerging markets were stimulus is developing and will continue to happen. alix: jeff, if you wind up looking at your asset allocation, you want to be looking at areas that are able to have fiscal stimulus or more central bank rate cuts, or some other support regardless of global gdp? jeff: i think that is important for 2020. i think looking at where we are going to see some of that, i know in emerging markets we are seeing some of that. india is a country that has put fiscal stimulus in place, and that is beginning to turn around. and germany, it doesn't take a ot. so looking at those pockets where there has been some .eakness globally it could boost overall global growth in demand, so i think

that is a key part of the story. we will continue with europe, may be looking at parts of emerging asia, as we see some standups here for the first time in a number of years. alix: really great to catch up with everybody. thanks gina martin adams. vince cignarella will be back. jeff kleintop, thank you to you. you can use all of the charts we are using on the show. gtv . brouse through the features -- browse through the teachers and check it out. here's viviana hurtado with first word news. viviana: house impeachment managers return to the senate floor to read out loud the articles of impeachment against president trump. afterwards, supreme court chief justice john roberts will be sworn into preside over the trial. the trial begins next tuesday. credit card stocks among the big gainers, companies like visa and mastercard moving a step closer to getting assets to the chinese

market. over to russia, where authorities are moving quickly to make vladimir putin's vision a reality. his new choice for prime minister pledging to make changes in the cabinet. it happened one day after putin shook up the government at asked for constitutional overhaul that could allow him to stay in power after his term of office inns in 2024. ends inerm of office 2004. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: coming up, we speak with jeff currie, goldman sachs mobile head of commodities research, on his 2020 ahead and -- on his 2020 ahead and how i trade deal shakes out. this is bloomberg.

♪

viviana: you're watching "bloomberg daybreak." we begin with the seat you -- with the ceo of the owner of gun maker smith & wesson, leaving the company. he engaged in nonfinancial misconduct. they will proceed with the plaintiff split into two publicly traded companies. one will focus on firearms, the other on outdoor products. boeing is reorganizing its staff pilots after its structure leading to communication collapses. meanwhile, some news into the newsroom. southwest airlines announcing a moment ago it has pulled the max from its schedules until june 6.

american and united also don't plan to return the plane to return the plaintiff service until june. i'm viviana hurtado. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. we want to focus now on the impact of trade and commodities. china pledging to buy almost $90 billion of additional commodities. all right, we will position it when we see it. joining us from frankfurt is jeff currie, goldman sachs global head of commodities research. great to see you. it is a twofold question. what was already baked into the price versus what can china actually by from the u.s. -- actually buy from the u.s.? jeff: one of the bigger surprises here is that 2020, instead of being $40 billion, looks like it will be closer to $36.5 billion that is a more achievable outcome.

relax rulesk, they around hormones, so beef and pork would have a real upside here. solely, a surprise to the a surprise toy the downside. if you look at the relationship -- between u.s. and china, the big differences between corn and livestock. soybeans in particular a surprise to the downside. alix: it is also emphasized in your 2020 outlook. i want to ask specifically on energy, lng, and oil. how much of china demand do you think will come from real price-sensitive demand versus a trade deal? jeff: if you look at the numbers for 2020, we penciled in something like 535,000 a day.

it is relatively small. that's why oil is not particularly impacted here. the situation really boils around with this trade deal means to global growth, which will yet to be seen, but in , it is pre-much in line with expectations. alix: you have basically three themes, deleveraging, decarbonization, and rationalization. what is the overall take on that? what does that mean? jeff:jeff: i think the bottom --e is capex in the samadhi i think the bottom line is capex in the commodities is in decline. we've looked at it across the .etal complex what you have is supply is beginning to be impacted by a decline in capex. what is driving the decline in

capex? access to capital. we saw a high-yield deal ashley -- high-yield deal last week. yes g is another big factor. we estimate that $45 trillion these strategies. the third one is the stimulus is not there anymore. china used to step in and stimulate old economy industries. as a result, we think supply is going to start to falter at the same time demand is benign, not great, not bad -- at the same is benign. not great, not bad. we want to belong commodities because they will materialize what we call backwardation, the

positive carry of the forward , and that's really driven carry. alix: how much of that backwardation is because of the front end of the curve getting very steep because of the lack of capital, and how much of it is way down on the backend -- is weighed down on the backend? jeff: they are very much tied to one another. because of the fact that they don't have access to debt, they don't have access to the equity market, it means they have to turn to the commodity market for capital, which means they sell the backend of the curve. every time you have a risk on rally and prices try to go up, it then rotates the curve and creates investment opportunity for investors to roll up up that

curve. alix: if you are long commodities, you change the timing based on the run-up we have already seen so far this year? jeff: no. what we saw this year as part of the return opportunity and commodities. when you see the price spike but in oil last week, because he rolled into the curve and banking those spikes, you hit everyone of those spikes over the course of the year. one of the reasons we think being long is because you are long volatility, but this is just part of the process. think about it as banking those returns when you go into these price spikes. alix: what is your favorite metal call right now? jeff: pardon? alix: what is your favorite

metal? is it going to be copper? is it going to be cold? what is the best trade -- is it going to be gold? trade inst and precious? jeff: we like gold. . gold has a better head than oil for geopolitical risk. we don't know if it is supply or demand shock that can materialize, but gold always performs relatively well. gold, reason we like dedollarization. it is representing 22% of global gold supply. significant demand for gold going forward. we have a savings surplus. , that meansdown

investment is down, savings is up. where is that capital going to? it is going into markets like gold. we have seen gold demand running somewhere around 500 times per year, so the outlook is quite positive. here impressive we are with the dollar as strong as it is, which means more upside risk in gold. turning to the base complex, we let copper the best. in particular, we don't see demand coming from a macro perspective, but more from specific idiosyncratic developments in china like grid demand. put that into context with a week of supply growth -- with the weakest supply growth in over a decade. alix: so good to catch up with you. thank you. thank you very much, jeff currie of goldman sachs. coming up on this program, a 2020 currency winner off the

trade war pause. and if you are heading out, tune into bloomberg radio across the u.s. on sirius xm channel 119 and the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time now for trader's take. joining me is vincent cignarella come a of the bloomberg audio squawk. i teased to the aussie dollar. what are you looking at? i can say the loonie. i can't say the aussie dollar. just making sure i am getting rid of the idiosyncratic stuff. vincent: really like the aussie dollar in 2020 for a variety of reasons. number one, we've got the trade war behind us. number two, this is unfortunate reasoning, but fiscal policy is going to ramp up. there's going to be a lot of funding going into australia. it is going to be very good for their economy. should be good for their

currency as well. recently come australia was privy regional comprehensive enema partnership. billion dollars gdp. that chinaagreement has to basically change supply chains. australia is going to benefit from this greatly as well. how far we will see at go remains to be seen, but certainly you will see it on the plus side more than the downside next year. alix: 2020 call, aussie dollar. thank you very much. coming up, we will be speaking with solita marcelli of ubs global wealth management, as well as sharmin mossavar-rahmani. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ alix: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this thursday,

jeannie rhee 16th. here's everything you need to -- thursday, january 16. here's everything you need to know at this hour. the signing of a phase one trade deal met by a mixed reaction in the market. >> a lot of tariffs remain in place, and there's big questions about phase two. president trump emphasizing that he would keep tariffs on place on $360 billion. alix: deutsche bank says manufacturing exports from china meet need to rise 60% to the trade agreement. replacing the prime minister and pushing for a change in congress. he is currently in the russian parliament answering questions and will wait on confirmation later today. alix: pugin will also meet with will meetn -- putin

as well.nel >> president trump knew exactly what was going on. he was aware of all of my movements. today, those house impeachment managers will read formally to the senate those articles of impeachment facing president trump. chief justice john roberts will be sworn in, and the jurors will be sworn in as well. alix: president trump's impeachment trial will begin tuesday. pres. trump: j.p. morgan chase just announced earnings, and they were very incredible. will you say thank you, mr. president, at least? alix: president trump says he made a lot of bankers look good. below theirually strategic guidance they had given at the end of last year, so what are they going to do?

in thishat margin here business now, let's see what they are saying in their update and what they want to do next. alix: morgan stanley is the latest. in the markets, you're seeing some follow-through buying on the s&p, up there .3%. morgan stanley holding on to those gains. euro-dollar stronger, but it is a muted reaction to the u.s.-china trade deal. there was a public what, up 11% last year, from china's pboc data overnight. joining me for the hour, romaine bostick. always a treat when you are here. what do you like? romaine: watching morgan stanley come of the last of the big wall street banks, and they didn't disappoint. we got pretty good numbers across all the units. investment banking, wealth management. everyone is talking about those fixed trading numbers -- those fic trading numbers.

i company like morgan stanley has always dominated equity trading. then that fic number, you wonder how sustainable it is going to be. alix: we were talking about the pretax management number, which disappointed, but if it is as good as it is going to get, those things make a difference. then you have dispersion. where are you going to see banks beat? romaine: i think you are really going to talk about the idea of sustainability. we've seen morgan stanley headed out of the park time to time, and then two quarters later, they've completely dropped the ball. it will be interesting to see we can keep this going. alix: all the big banks have no reported their fourth quarter results. what about the rest of earnings? here's a look at expectations. the white line is the s&p. the pink and the blue line

represent asia, as well as europe, to see where that growth is actually going to come from. is solita marcelli, ubs global wealth management deputy cio. thank you for being here. when i look at this chart, i am thing asia -- i am thinking asia to see real earnings growth. what do you see? solita: that is exactly what we see. it is set to rebound for 2020 across the world, pretty much, maybe with the exception of europe. asia is going to have the most benefit from the fact that a phase one trade deal is now behind us. they have seen the most acute impacts when the tensions escalated, so the ecru the most benefits now that the tensions are easing. romaine: what are the indicators at?look

are you looking at u.s. growth, global growth, chinese growth? what is the catalyst? solita: we are looking at all of this, but the most important thing is what the fed has done, provided liquidity for global markets to begin with. in the u.s., it is going to feed into the economy throughout this quarter and next quarter, and we are seeing that data coming in. for asia, i think the fed is supporting them via a we getting dollar. the weakening dollar helps overseas companies, and healing overseas economies is good for multinationals as well. romaine: one of the things people talk about is the differential between rates on the e.m. side and the u.s. and some of the other developed markets. that differential seems to be narrowing a bit. does that affect your forecast at all? solita: it doesn't because we think growth is going to accelerate outside the u.s.

there's still a lot of emerging market countries that are likely to cut. that said, inflation is low, and we expect the growth potential 3.5%den from 2.5% to between emerging markets and developed markets. that should be supported for emerging markets in general, but especially emerging asia. alix: goldman sachs chief day,mist, during investor was talking about just this topic. here's what he had to say about developed market central banks. >> we are basically expecting very little from the developed market central banks, nor from the federal reserve, no moves from the ecb, no moves from the bank of japan, probably also no moves from the bank of england, although there is more of a question around that in the near term given the weak data and

the dovish commentary. but for the most part, we think 20/20 is going to be pretty stable in terms of interest policy.d central-bank alix: do you have to only look at the banks that can put stimulus into the system to get that earnings growth? solita: i don't think so. i think we are going to be seeing improving sentiment without lower rates to feed into earnings and share prices as well. a lot has been done, but when you look at emerging markets, whether it is brazil, malaysia, i think we see an overall uptick in emerging-market earnings supported by what has been done already. romaine: so youth a lot of those central banks will continue the easing cycle, or are we just going to get them to stay put?

solita: emerging markets, there's still more countries in the midst of easing. romaine: we were talking this morning about the turkey rate decision, which essentially put them into real negative territory on their real rates. you've got egypt, india, argentina, others coming down the pike. if they continue and easing cycle or come to that differential, you get to a state where maybe the benefit of meeting is going for dollar-denominated assets. they are not going to get that same deal. do you think that is still an attractive enough investment portfolio? emerginghen we look at markets, especially in local currency, our preference is high-yielding countries, whether it be india or indonesia. turkey might be on the higher side, but the fundamentals are a different there. our focus is on emerging asia

and hired yield. yield is there if it from the yield theirina -- benefits from the uptick in china. from the dollar-denominated debt side, you get a much better than you do in various areas of the u.s. market. alix: that is areas you are putting your clients in. what are you taking them out of? solita: we are overweight equities by way of emerging-markets. we have done that out of u.s. treasuries, so we are underweight fixed income, but still, fixed income is important from a querrey perspective. carry perspective. for aggressive equity measures, treasuries are still important, and a hedge on the longer end,

but on average, these are long-duration. romaine: when you look at the correlations we have seen between e.m. and u.s. and the developed markets, do you see those correlations breaking down a little more to make that trade more profitable? solita: yes. the gross we are seeing right now, we are expecting more to come out of the u.s.. the growth is coming, but it is not going to be synchronized. i don't think it will be in opposite directions, but it is going to take a while for developed markets to catch up. alix: does any part of your thesis change with a china trade deal, phase one or potential phase two conversations? how did you deal with asset allocation with that lens? solita: it has changed. in december, when we made an overweight call on emerging markets, that is happening. it is a temporary truth in a , and i think we

have to, like many investors do, the medium-term rising risk. that is where we are, but we are also thoughtful in the sense that when we have an equity -- we aree are voting focusing much more on the consumer, higher dividend, higher-quality names that can provide stable income in an within equities. alix: good distinction. solita marcelli, a pleasure to meet you. coming up on the program, a banner year for stocks in 2019. this year will be only as high as 20, according to sharmin

mossavar-rahmani. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ alix: goldman sachs private wealth is out with its latest 2020 investment outlook. some of the key themes are that the bull market has room to grow. with us is sharmin mossavar-rahmani, goldman sachs cio of private wealth management. what is the number one question you're getting? biggest we are getting is why are we saying to continue to stay invested? how could the economy, after having such a long expansionary period, continue? and how could this amazing bull market continue to grow? romaine: if you were to give

someone that advice and say stay invested, and they would .2 valuations, the bull market is getting old, the economic cycle is getting old, what is your response? sharmin: there are three things we focus on. if we are in expansion, which is our base case, and that expansion continues for at least another year, the odds of a positive return is about 87%. that itself is very compelling to make a bet against that -- is very compelling. takese a bet against that conviction. when we think of valuations, we don't just think of long-term averages. one has to look at valuations in the context of the current environment of low and stable inflation. when we have low and stable inflation, generally arc it valuations are higher. so we encourage clients to look at long-term averages, but also

focus on the valuation metrics of april 19 96 because that is when we have been in this regime of low and stable inflation. people point to the weakness we signed manufacturing and a few other metrics out there. i am just wondering, why were they wrong? were we looking at the wrong signals to determine where the market was, or is there something else we should be paying attention to? sharmin: you actually picked up on i think the most important theme of our outlook. alix: did you read the 104 pages? [laughter] 66.ine: i read, like, i don't know how it ended. sharmin: but the most important part is in the front section. it is very important when with think about risk to think about both sides of risk. it is not just the downside, but also the risk of getting out too early. if one exits the market

prematurely, one has a permanent lost opportunity cost. as you said, if one got out at the beginning of 2019, thick about how much one has left on the table, and how much the market has to go down for one to recover from that. i think an important message to our clients people have to realize, the odds of going overweight when equities are cheap is a much better strategy in the long run. if you are investing in inge-cap s&p 500 companies the united states, eventually the market will recover. winning.lly end up . on the other hand, if you get out early, you had a permanent opportunity cost. alix: do people think that is crazy, or that makes sense, or that makes me nervous? sharmin: we've actually gotten a couple of comments that people were very pleased. we will get emails, feedback

from our clients, and we already had several people comment specifically. we are pleased that people picked up on that as you did. romaine: no one is advocating just moving into passives. most people want to stay invested in the market, inequities, but also looking for more defensive sectors or more defective individual names. is that a strategy you advocate, or do you think people should located wherever their original strategy was? sharmin:to our clients is to make sure they have the right allocation for them. that's where they should start, and deviate from that if there is a very compelling argument. we don't actually just say underweight or overweight for a

2% or 3% deviation. there has to be a lot of conviction to move the portfolio. toprefer u.s. equities non-us developed markets, and definitely relative to emerging markets in general, but we are not saying invest in an overweight position. alix: we just had a screen up that talked about your tactical moves. that is sort of the broader stance. you have some technical things in order to make some money there. highlight,ough the the one you are most convicted about. sharmin: the first and most volatile we have had for a while is the eurozone banks. we have had euros on banks now for about a year and a half, two years. it's been a rough ride. last year, it was a great trade. we recovered from the loss that we had. one of the things we tell our

clients is they can afford to be patient. if you think about investors in the market, our client base can afford to be patient. we would like to think about recommendations where they could take advantage of their s staying power -- of their staying power. they are not paying out pension payments. they can afford to be very patient. so we try to think about where they can take advantage. romaine: what about a cyclical recovery? sharmin: we don't think any more further easing, so that stabilizes the interest rate environment for the banks, but we also begin to see that you are seeing some economic recovery, so we actually would like to have a very narrow focus on euros stocks that would take

advantage of growth. but these tend to be small tactical tilts. within this, what do you do with duration in the bond market? sharmin: we tell clients, look at the return spectrum. you could be in fixed income , and u.s. equities could actually do better than our base case of 6%. there's some upside in our view which we don't actually expect in fixed income. alix: sharmin mossavar-rahmani of goldman sachs wealth management, you will be sticking with us. we will look at a tech bellwether coming up next, taiwan semiconductor. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak."

for the first time in more than seven years, morgan stanley is recommending selling tesla shares. optimism around the electric carmaker's growth in china is now priced into the stock. since the beginning of october, tesla stock price has more than doubled. europe soaring 21% vehicles.1.3 million that push sales for the year up 1.2%. apple's main chipmaker is projecting quarterly sales well above analyst estimates. posting fourth-quarter earnings that are than expected. this year's rollout of 5g phones is expected to lead to faster growth. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much.

i loved hearing about this company. i wonder if all of the upgrades we have seen on apple will actually materialize. romaine: a lot of the upgrades were tied to the iphone 11 sales. they were sort of backward looking. but a lot of the upgrades on chip stocks are looking at 5g. i think that is the risk here. if we don't get that rollout as quickly as people think, you are going to have to see some of these estimates retrench a little bit. the other wildcard was that report yesterday, i believe reuters broke it, that the u.s. might be considering expanding those restrictions on huawei. alix: in terms of 5g, we don't see how this is going to be the huge growth driver. the amount of money we have to spend on the infrastructure is enormous. it is a net cash flow from investing activities. they are just putting so much money. romaine:romaine: it is going to be even more money. primarily, it is a race to the top, and you have to spend money

if you want to be at the top. the cost may be there a year from now, two years from now. but when you see some of these valuations on the chip stocks, they are still somewhat subdued. so you see some justification. somewould be the argument make. alix: after a flat november, retail sales are expected to climb. that is up next. that is in the beige book. they said retail holiday sales were ok and we see moderate growth in the consumer. will we continue to see the solid consumer? that is a question we are tackling in the next few minutes. this is bloomberg. ♪ when you move homes, you move more than just yourself.

that's why xfinity has made taking your internet and tv with you a breeze. really? yup. you can transfer your service online in about a minute. you can do that? yeah. and with two-hour service appointment windows, it's all on your schedule. awesome. so while moving may still come with its share of headaches...

no kidding. we're doing all we can to make moving simple, easy, awesome. go to xfinity.com/moving to get started. here, it all starts withello! hi!... how can i help? a data plan for everyone. everyone? everyone. let's send to everyone! wifi up there? uhh. sure, why not? how'd he get out?! a camera might figure it out. that was easy! glad i could help. at xfinity, we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. so come ask, shop, discover at your local xfinity store today. alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am alix steel. just a few seconds away from the latest read on retail sales. 3% -- upes up point

.3%. classes, not a ton of movement. taking a look at the europe. christine lagarde calling for vigilance, that came out of the latest minutes for the ecb. we have the data dropping. if you look at a month by month energy,f you backout .2%. let me scroll down to the important part. if you backout autos, up .7%. up .5%.s and gas, still input into gdp coming in strong, up .5%. that looks pretty decent. import prices were stronger and export prices were a touch weaker. that is an interesting read. it is positive. romaine: on the whole this is positive, specifically the ex

autos and gas numbers. i should point out they did revise downward some of the numbers from the previous month. basis, it ison kind of a washout, at least on the headline level. some folks are expecting a drop. you had a lot of the earnings reports come out as well as preliminary warnings from retailers including target. they are therewith with concerns the holiday sales were not going to come in a strong as some folks thought they were. this should give them something to hang their hats on. alix: that control group i mentioned decreased .3% versus a .6% rate in the three months before that. there is an indication that household spending cooled, but cold versus spending versus slowing are very different propositions. , andng us is peter coy

sharman is still with us -- and sharmin is still with us. if you are to categorize where we are shut up in terms of the consumer, where is it -- where are we? peter: these numbers are not bad. the conditions underlying our strong. we still have a historically low unemployment rate. respectable wage growth. i think the numbers for retail sales bayer out the idea that the situation is reasonably good for the american consumer, even after this long expansion. we did have other data points showing consumer confidence. are you concerned the numbers we get today might not be sustainable? peter: that is always a possibility. we also had a strong number on the philadelphia fed business outlook coming in.

of 3.8.s the survey worry.s always reason to if i had my base case, it would be things look pretty good. alix: you know who i feel like this is bad for? target. when target is like just kidding, we did not do so well in the holiday season. peter: that was concerning. reports out of the companies where these were idiosyncratic stories, do not read much into the broader consumer spending space. based on the numbers we got today, maybe they were right. alix: how do you look at it when you look at the consumer here and globally? are we going to hold up? sharmin: we think it is good you have long-term perspective on the great condition households are in. households have deleverage

significantly since where they were the peak of the global financial crisis. savings rates are high. you are beginning to see lower income cohorts have wage growth. numbers, you also have to look at the different groups, the higher income groups versus ae lowe propensity to consume. for any income growth, they will spend. as you are beginning to see over the last several years, that improvement come and clean household balance sheets. one could look forward and say consumption will hold steady. we also think when you look these individual numbers, one needs to have a broader perspective. we have about 30 indicators, and you'd need to look at those, not just in terms of month on month change, but versus last six months and what the trend is. in aggregate when we are looking at the numbers, it is quite favorable.

romaine: you don't think we are seeing too much credit being taken out by consumers, by households. you think that is at a healthy enough level? sharmin: we do not have any worries about the households. if you look at their savings rate, it is quite remarkable. if you look at how much they have the, that is remarkable. because of the low interest rates, the cost of servicing that debt is low. the areas where our clients asked questions are about student loans and auto loans. that area is in the subprime auto market, which is a small cohort. student loans are backed by the government at the end of the day. not a worry from a credit perspective. sharmin: it seems peter: peter: -- it seems the consumer is in good shape, you worry more about the business sector where you see debt piling up. when the fit looks at its list, that is with a focus on, nothing consumer. romaine: the interest rate

environment has to be the key for business and consumers. if you're going to have debt, this is the time to do it. you cannot refinance, even if you are on the lower quality of the spectrum. sharmin: we highlight that. the fed stability report talks about the issue of we need to be vigilant about what is going on in the nonfinancial corporate sector. it is one of the topics that are outlook available on the web for anyone who would like to look at it. , corporatet of gdp debt is higher than it was in the global financial crisis. on the other hand, the cost of servicing that debt is low and the sectors that have increased their debt levels are the sectors with a lot of cash flow, such as technology. one has to look at where that debt has increased. how does this pair india recession calls -- how does this pair into your recession calls.

on the other hand we have an investor talking about how fiscal stimulus will lead the way. if everything is ok, do we need fiscal stimulus? with the data, i do not see the need. sharmin: we do not expect any fiscal stimulus out of the u.s.. ,omething modest out of europe and something more significant in japan. we do not think fiscal stimulus is necessary. we think the general backdrop ism a monetary policy favorable. good, clean balance sheets. not imbalances and extremes anywhere. peter: you could argue is there already is a lot of fiscal stimulus on the u.s. economy through the large deficit to gdp ratio for this point in the business cycle. it may not be new fiscal stimulus, but what is there is propelling the economy. romaine: i want to point out

another data point. the online shopping number surpassed all other categories for the first time. online shopping has overtaken brick-and-mortar officially. on a year-over-year basis, the non-store sales, online shopping, up 19%. some of these why brick-and-mortar apparel makers have been reporting less than expected earnings, you wonder when we get amazon, what we will see from them, or even walmart, which has increased its online presence of tremendous amount. alix: have you been in a target? peter: yes. are you kidding me. alix: he is like a fancy guy. peter: me and my family go to target. alix: bloombergs peter coy, thank you. you formin, thank spending time with us today.

we want to give you an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. continue with your first word news. the impeachment proceedings against donald trump resuming on the senate floor. several house democrats will read aloud the articles of impeachment. after that, john roberts will be sworn in to preside over the trial. it is expected to take several weeks but is all but certain to end in the president's acquittal. what is next in president trump's efforts to change the economic relationship with china? beijing committed to by 200 billion dollars of american products. the big issue, china's government subsidies for business. that is been put off her face two. it applies to china's state back tapping -- hacking of u.s. companies. home with state fund capital paying the sticker

price. in greenwich, connecticut 90% of single homes were sold for less than the seller was asking. the average discount was 10%. meanwhile, sales falling 12%. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. chairs --an stanley's morgan stanley shares surging in premarket. the analyst call underway. sonali basak is joining us with the call. what are some of the highlights? sonali: we have james gorman starting off the call strong, saying it was a record year for them, highlighting wealth management revenue. they are setting the bar higher for themselves. they had 26% to 20% of what they wanted, and he is setting the bar higher to as much as 30% for the margins. the longer-term aspirations for

return on equities are in the scope of what jp morgan does now. they have the goal of 14.5% for that figure. they raised it to 70% -- 17% longer-term. let's see what they can achieve. a couple of years ago we had wells fargo asking james gorman, you are blowing through your metric, can we set the bar higher? you might see them starting to do that now. on fixed income trading, that beat was significant because now we have them at 1.3 billion dollars in revenue for the quarter, where goldman reported $1.8 billion in revenue. the overall outlook for sustainability of the results we will hear more about going forward. alix: amazing quarter for morgan stanley. sales, if you backout gas and autos, really strong, up .5%. the philly fed business outlook

coming in strong. a key bit of selling on the back end of the curve. romaine: i do not think this will deter any of the bullish calls. it keeps us in line above the average is we have seen over the past five years. alix: coming up, a transportation giant explores deals. brad jacobs joins us in today's bottom line. you can interact with the charts shown using gtv on the terminal. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time for bottom line. we look at companies worth watching. i want to start out with private equity firm apollo capital.

its chairman and cofounder is leon black. cinelli bostick joins us. this is a great deep dive into leon black. sonali: a rare interview with leon black by our colleagues. an interesting story. he talks about everything from his relationship to his father who had committed suicide, to how he built apollo. apollo is a lot like berkshire hathaway where they have an insurance company, they see value bet, and about $200 billion of their assets under management is in credit market, not private equity. in credit alone they are bigger than blackstone. as a firm they have fewer in assets than blackstone does. romaine: what about the legacy of succession. he is getting up there. sonali: there is no plan right now. alix: is he doing like the jamie dimon five-year plan?

five years, five years. sonali: his name is synonymous with apollo and then you have the cofounders, who bring very different things to the table. brain, described as the and josh comes in and strikes deals. those are some of the ways people talk about the three people at the helm. they have a very interesting interaction with each other as well as the rest of wall street. alix: a good read. thank you so much. you can find the story in the latest issue of bloomberg businessweek. the second company is x ceo logistics. o logistics. shares of the transportation conglomerate are searching. joining us is brad jacobs and ed hammond read the story yesterday. why now. why now?

brad: good morning. great to see you. we are getting the conglomerate discount. it is a great company that is appealing to customers and that has allowed us to add $2 billion of revenue organically. half $1 billion organically. we have been trading at eight or nine times ebit up. some of the parts is worth less than the part. it is a great shareholder value. ed: why now? this is a company you've built up over numerous deals what drove this? did someone make an approach for a piece of the business? there must be something that triggered the move. brad: right now's a good time. the credit market is good, m&a market is good, and we want to fulfill our prime mission which is to create shareholder value.

we are the seventh best-performing stock of the decade. yes the stock is up more than 10 times when we first invested, but they're still more value to create and we analyzed it and said if we hold properties in these different business units, we should create value. short nurse will get crushed, about 10% of the float is out in short nurse. talk about the process you will go through. will be simultaneous? brad: it is not a guarantee they will beget sold. -- they will get sold. we will see what prices we get. we will run four simultaneous prophecies, are two european businesses, and we will not market our north american algia. we will that in be a pure play. romaine: part of the

poofitability run that x has had is because of the size and the scale and the bargaining power that gave you. if you end up as four or five separate entities, will those companies have the same bargaining power or scale to achieve the profitability you had is that conglomerate? brad: we will lose some targeting power as smaller companies with vendors do not have the global capability. with customers, will be smaller, more focused, agile series of companies. that will be fine. ed: the market loves a pure play, at least right now. do you go out and build it back up into something more diversified? brad: you need to stop calling me a deals guy. i am an operating guy. i run businesses. what will happen is if we do sell the four businesses we are marketing, we will remain a pure play ltl company.

you have old dominion trading at 13.5 times ebit up. we will have no net debt and we have billions of dollars of cash. ed: you've done other businesses before this, waste management and other services. is there another project for brad jacobs after xpo? brad: who knows. for now i'm laser focused on creating value for xpo. romaine: when we talk about the structure of the businesses, which one of those units has the strongest potential at the independent company? brad: they are all premium assets, all leaders in the space. alix: you have to choose between your kids. there is always a favorite, even if we lie about it. romaine: when you started putting xpo together, your competitors were the strict

trucking companies and freight companies. now you're dealing with companies like amazon that are coming it is the space. is that change the dynamics of how these companies need to be run? brad: they are all well-run companies with management teams in place. they are all powered by great technology we have invested over $500 million a year and growing. they have great sales teams, their blue-chip customers, they are all self-sufficient. are: what kind of interest you getting or expecting? brad: i will play my cards close to the chest. let's see how it plays out. alix: i want to get a sense of how open the market is for deals like this. brad: we are feeling good. alix: what kind of global circumstance might you regret this decision and that, exxon, a ton of calls to break up like conoco did and they said no, i am stiffing to this, and it paid

off. it is a cycle where it goes back and forth. and what kind of global environment do you feel like you will get those calls again? brad: if we get attractive prices, we will sell them, and that will create value. that is as far as i can say. alix: we asked four different ways. brad: good try. alix: brad jacobs, thank you for joining us, and ed hammond, thank you. romaine bostick, thank you for joining me. if you're heading out and jump into her car, tune into bloomberg radio heard across the u.s. on sirius xm general 119 on the bloomberg is this app. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time for technically speaking. bill maloney, voice of bloomberg's equity squad, joints me now. downgraded by morgan

stanley. walk me through. bill: looking at tesla, maybe we are finally looking it up tensile pull off. morgan stanley cut the shares to underweight. all the way down to $275. stocks got parabolic. potential support around 500 or so. below that, look at 492, the january 13 low. then you are looking at retracement levels to 46. alix: i think it is the most shorted stock. morgan stanley killed it on all kinds of metrics and upping the bar for 2020 for the company. bill: stocks up around 5% in the premarket. other banks have a strong move off the october lows. resistance is 55 to 58. that dates back to 2018, if it gets above that, 59, the 2018 peak. alix: let's get to bny mellon

and compare the big bank versus the regional. bill: bank of new york under pressure in the premarket, down 5%. it will break that uptrend today. clear resistance, 52 to 54. support around the 200 day, which is 4660. alix: good stuff, thanks so much. that wraps it up for me at bloomberg daybreak: americas. coming up on the open, samantha morgan assetp. management global market strategist. -than-expected retail sales and morgan stanley coming out with strong numbers. that helping support the equity market. futures up .3%.this is bloomber.

jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, retail

sales posting a solid advance to close out the year. a phase one trade truce on the books. the tension turning to follow-through. wrapping up wall street earnings on a high with morgan stanley. 30 minutes until the opening bell. here is your thursday morning price action. all-time highs on the horizon again. equity futures up .33%. treasury yields with a lift of two basis points to 1.80 on the u.s. 10 year. let's get straight to the big issue. continued strength for the u.s. consumer. >> the consumer continues to roll along. >> confidence levels at all-time high. >> when one of the largest retailers disappoints, that looks like a problem. >> we are seeing several large physical retailers not doing as well. >> consumers are changing where they spend their money. >> that is not a comment on the u.s. consumer. >>