tv Bloomberg Best Bloomberg January 24, 2020 10:00pm-11:00pm EST
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♪ >> coming up on bloomberg best, conversations from the 2020 world economic forum in davos. the biggest names in banking and facing discuss issues their industry and the global economy. >> rates to stay low. >> the end of the boom bust cycle. >> we have to recognize this is the new normal. onworld leaders weigh in challenges and opportunities, in politics and policy. >> we do not manipulate currency. >> we are united in the e.u. on trade.
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>> we are committed to policies that are environmentally effective and economically responsible. >> i think that is ridiculous. ♪ >> plus, climate change front and center at davos. bloomberg drives the conversation on the most important transformation of our time. >> climate change is becoming an investment risk. >> you have the core of the financial system, all the investors wanting information about the transition. >> they just need to get on with it. >> investors will look at us and say, what did you do for me? >> it is all straight ahead on this special edition of "bloomberg best." ♪ vivian: i'm vivian hurtado. welcome to a special edition of "bloomberg best," featuring conversations from the world
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economic forum in davos. all week bloomberg television spoke with influential and insightful leaders in global business, finance and government on today's most important issues facing the world. always aning is opportunity for power players in banking and finance to discuss the state of the economy, that momentum of markets and the decisions they are making to grow their firms. this year was no different. let's start with goldman sachs chief executive david solomon. ♪ david: the monetary policy in place for a long time has been an enormous stimulus. when we sit here today, i think about the path forward, i think we are now at a. this year a time after three midcycle cuts that don't expect a lot from the fed this year. the balance sheet has come down a lot over the last couple
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of years and all of this supports markets paired the fed has done a reasonable job. qa as they buy t-bills on the balance sheets expands again? david: anytime the fed uses its resources to affect liquidity, it has an impact on markets. >> the action we have seen the last couple of months. david: i have been talking to clients the past couple of days, one of the principal things i do all year, and i see and hear what i call a confident, middle-of-the-road view of the current economic environment. the u.s. economy is in good shape. the manufacturing sector is a little soft. capital spending is lower than people would like to see, but i think there has been overcompensation for that. europe is looking better, headwinds from the face-one deal helps a little, but the overwhelming likely scenario is that the economy is humming. expansion.nce sheet
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is it qe or not qe? that debate is raging on wall street. what is james corbin's call on that? >> the fed only has two real tools it is working with at the moment, and they have pretty much exhausted the right. so they only have the balance sheet they are working with, and it is a form of qe. it is subsidizing, helping the markets along, and they have done it for good reason. when they raised rates 12, 14 i thinkgo, the markets, the fed is just bringing things back in line. -- morgann family stanley body or tenure and wealth management, the statement of improving margins, if everybody wants to get into wealth management, is there a risk that you compete on the margins on the morgan stanley margins come down? >> there is a difference between wanting and being able to do it.
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you have to do it cost-effectively. we made that call 10 years ago. there are monster players in wealth management, whether it is on the direct side like what ameritrade has done, fidelity has done in full-service firms like allison done. it is very hard to replicate those. ♪ >> will negative rates go further negative? that there realization now they need to rein it in? >> it is a difficult one, because there are two factors driving that. linked to thecal, aftermath of a crisis over the beginning of a crisis and others are demography with the aging population, and interest rates are just kind of the price of money. those long-term trends weigh on the level of rates, and wet to expect for rates, negative or
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not, to stay low for a sustained time. >> are we miss pricing risk? what does it mean for the asset model for banks? >> we need to be very efficient. you have seen pressures on the cost. you know the work we have done to reduce our cost base significantly the past for years. that is a starting point. able to never gate the environment because there is also a layer of political risk that has added to difficulty, but i am still very positive. >> worldwide or in europe? >> more in europe. we see growth everywhere, still see good growth in asia, still growth in china, southeast asia, latin america we will be bullish and brazil we are doing quite well. africa is doing well, so that is a lot of the world. in the u.s. of course. certain i hear from
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quarters, could be when europe does better than expected. what are you concerned about in your? >> -- in europe? >> i agree with the assessment that things are getting better. but it is going to be longer read ♪ -- longer. ♪ a he said the following, market share for consumers, 13%, depending on accounts, the reality is that you could double that. you want to double that? forward.t to drive it the context of that was, are you two big india have to go outside the united states to do something? the answer is no, we don't. there is an opportunity in the united states. even though our market share is high, the next to us is six. . if we look at the other seven as being like the other markets, that is a lot of growth. and we can do that all over the
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u.s.. we have gone from 10% to 50% over the past few years. you can think it is a challenge for my team, let's tablet, but the reality is it of response to opportunity in the united states for the bank of america. >> you have talked about responsible growth. let's talk about a leveraged business. almost every week there is a new shock with concerns about leverage loans. walk us through what you are seeing at the moment? >> the real question for the economy and what different groups are talking about is, a lot of it is in funds and other types of support, and what will happen when those companies don't fare well? is, in a netstion asset value context, our liability structure moves down with the asset, that feels good at the moment, but when you traded at $.60 on the dollar, what does the next person do
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with it? our leveraged lending as a small part of our on sheet balance risk. ♪ davos i ask you about consolidation and the banking sector. is 2020 the year? >> we are getting very close to that moment. the second half of the year is going to be very important. see thegoing to finalization of the basil three and basil four. before that or after that you may start to see people really realizing the need for offsetting a shortage of capital , and i think it is a necessity for europe. not a matter of when this should happen or not. a with that really be
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catalyst for banking consolidation? >> know, already today without any further th -- further developments, there is a sense that you have reached critical so i am not saying that that per se is the solution, but you still need scale. no matter how good you are positioned in a competitive it allows you to offset mortgage compression, and to deliver savings that are attractive in a capital return and to invest in the future. ♪ vivian: still ahead as we review the week in davos on "bloomberg best," conversations with leaders. their decisions shape politics
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and policy, from central bankers to heads of government. >> europe, provided they have a wise agenda. >> plus, how businesses are grappling with the implications of the climate crisis. a goalet ourselves affecting the package to everyone we sell by 2030. vivian: up next, more insights from the most influential voices in finance and investing, today's markets and the local economy look strong, but what should keep them up at night? >> usually perfection doesn't last. will bee five years we talking about not the subprime level but the equity level? vivian: this is bloomberg. ♪
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best." i'm vivian hurtado. we are revisiting conversations from the 2020 world economic forum in davos. let's stay on the topic of markets and the global economy. some of the world's most respected bankers and economists share their outlook for the year ahead. here is blackrock ceo david schwartzman. >> what is the biggest unknown for the markets? election, global growth, geopolitics? growth.t is not global global growth will continue. the biggest risk for markets are two types of thing. one is u.s. domestic politics. the second is a black swan effect that can happen. we just had an incident, for example, in iraq. i was watching television. almost everyone was declaring
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world war iii starting. they all happened to be wrong, but if they were right and the strait of hormuz were closed, and we ended up with a huge dislocation, you could get thrown accidentally from slow growth into recession. >> but it is amazing how the markets quickly discounted. once there was no immediate threat of war, they moved on. asset prices were priced to perfection. how to that matchup -- how do those two matchup? : usually perfection doesn't last. you expect some type of adjustment. but if we avoid the kinds of major international type of isks, geopolitical risks,
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think we will go on with variability come up and down over today's levels. ♪ a sensebelieve there is that for the next 12 months and maybe 24 months, we are going to have economic growth. it may be slow, or slower in places like china and germany, but there is economic growth out there, so there is a reason to invest and there is reason to be more optimistic than businesses were last year. the only issue is, if we are wrong. >> are chief executives optimistic enough that they are ready to actually put money in capex? >> i think if the labor market begins to put greater pressure and supply chains get broken and productivity slips, and you start to see inflation, you know we have a long way to go for the central banks to
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correct the monetary policy in case that happens. it looks like the news should all be happy, but if you start to see inflationary, we have a lot of correction that needs to be done to get monetary policy in the right place. ♪ >> where do you see the biggest risk coming from? things020, there are two that i would call out. the first is that there is a risk markets have moved ahead of the in-line economy and company earnings. u.s. markets are pretty concentrated on the next sector, so you have not had a broad market. we are vulnerable to headline levels and setbacks for a few individual stocks. and the stock gapping out is a potential risk. the more bold one that is not specific to 2020, but we do see, when we look across the landscape of regulation, that liquidity is becoming stickier. we are seeing capital being
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allocated, being almost trapped with individual parts of businesses, which means repo markets and currency markets have seen all kinds of volatility because the the capital could move around the system, the liquidity could move around the system as it needed to. i think that creates risk. ♪ >> if you look at risks to the downside, what are your top three? that is atcertainty the top of the list. uncertainty can come from many factors, trade tensions were last year's number one. we have seen that from the start of the year, we got climate shock in australia with the fires, tensions in the middle east, now there is concern about a sars-like virus.
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i think we have to recognize that this is the new normal. we are also keen to see governments stepping up on the policy front. monetary policy has served us well. it cannot be the only savior of global growth. whether we would be ambitious enough on the policy side. see how theto consequences of prolonged interest rates may play out. ♪ single-digit world. there is all the rationalization. there is interest rate parity, which i call a sophisticated strategy, and then there is the macro bet. how do you recover after 2019 on the macro side? lesson, 2018 was a learned. the tightening of central banks
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all around the world wasn't intended to cause the downturn, wasn't intended to cause what it did, but lessons were learned from that. and i think it was really a marker that we have seen the end of the boom-bust cycle. >> but we never leave the boom-bust cycle. berger,o call hindle and he says prices always come back. bubbles are detected debt first. next year, maybe the year after that, maybe in five years we will talking -- be -- will be talking not about the subprime bubble but the equity bubble. ♪ vivian: coming up, more conversations from davos. bank of england governor mark carney says it has become impossible to overstate the impact of climate change. >> it is becoming pretty clear that if it is not the biggest problem, it is in the top three. vivian: and hong kong's leader
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♪ you are watching "bloomberg best." i'm vivian hurtado. this week marked the launch of bloomberg green, aiming to become an indispensable guide to understanding the scale and impact of climate change. it features news and analysis with an emphasis on helping find solutions. we are using clear data and rigorous reporting across all bloomberg platforms.
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this year, for the first time, the top five concerns at the world economic forum were all related to the environment. ,he conference theme stakeholders for a sustainable world. in a conversation with lacqua,g's francine bank of england chair mark carney framed the challenge for business and government. any transition -- >> any transition is easier if you know where you are going. andhe clarity of direction clarity of government policy, even if it is starting relatively small, low carbon type, but with a credible trajectory toward where it is effortor a sustained rnd -- r and d effort, all those things signal to individuals, companies, to investors, where to put their money, where the opportunity is.
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and what the market will do is act forward adjustment and more rapidly than policy will help fill in. at will lab dachshund without question, -- and without question, public attitudes and pressure help shape those decisions as well, and that is part of what we are seeing in terms of the response. because the response, again, and finance, if you look at what is happening in finance, you have the core of the financial system, all the investors, wanting information about what? about the transition. different people are going to have different views on how fast it is going, where to put their bets, that is fine. you have bank of england and other central banks that will do this as well, stress testing their banks for a transition to net zero. so the world's host complex natural system, that is what we are doing. at the core of the system, these
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questions are being asked, and are you on the right side of the wrong side of that transition? and what you going to do about it? francine: why are investors recognizing these issues? protesters? issues.combination of the biggest asset owners will be around 30 years from now and see the implications on their assets. the front line are the insurance and reinsurance industry. they are dealing with the pricing and cost of this every day. and as well, people responding to their clients and they are actually not disembodied, these institutions. they are made up of individuals and they can see the imperative. and in the end, what is the market system therefore -- system there for? it is to solve problems. it is to find solutions. it is becoming clear that if it is not the biggest problem, it is in the top three and therefore that is where the market will go.
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vivian: mark carney, just one of many leaders in davos who spoke with blumberg about the climate crisis spoke with bloomberg about -- spoke with bloomberg about the climate crisis. >> climate change is not going to be fixed by a central bank. vivian: coming up, politics and policy is our review of the world economic forum continues. >> let's look at the factor let's look at how the economy evolves. vivian: this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ to this welcome back special. edition of "bloomberg best" we are featuring conversations from the world economic forum in davos. i'm viviana hurtado. in 2020 the annual conference drew nearly 3000 attendees from 117 countries. there were at least 119 billionaires, 53 heads of state, and central bankers. friday ecb president christine lagarde spoke with bloomberg about policy and politics. ♪ >> we need to do a lot of stock taking, looking at the effectiveness of what we have
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done, learn from other countries around the world in the process. the fed is undergoing the same exercise. and we need to take time to reach out to the parliament, to academics, to people interested in the issues, to hear the voices, to understand what their views are. we will listen to markets as well, but they are one of the voices that we will listen to. >> economists leave monetary policy at ecb will be on autopilot for the next two years. is that a mistake? : no.tina that is ridiculous. whichis forward guidance is strong, setting a very clear timetable. but let's look at the facts. let's look at how the economy evolves. that is what we do. we need to be fact-driven, we need to be clear in our communication, and i am saying today, don't assume it will be on autopilot. >> yesterday you talked extensively about negative rates.
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and the side effects of negative rates mean you need to scale it back. christine: we need to be attentive to that. financial stability is not our first driver of concern and consideration, but we will have to look at it, of course. don't forget that we need to have a banking sector and the euros area that acts as a good channel of transmission. ♪ is the most efficacious way for europe to speak to the president of the united states on trade? >> forthright. you have to be quite clear. tom: who is the voice that is going to sit across the table from the president? >> the european commission, because this is a european thing and we are united in the european union on trade eerie there a very successful things we are doing. there are many issues, climate change, migration, but some of the consistently successful things we are dealing within the
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european union's trade. that we have to work with the u.k., they are leaving, we have to get u.k. deal, so i am optimistic because we know it is important for trump, it is important for europe. ♪ the perception of europe is that it is full of socialists, full of leftists. >> that is wrong. >> that it is full of left-wing politicians who have no interest in business and put a big wall around the block. a center-right agenda, liberal reforms, reducing taxes, deregulation and an inclusive economy. we have an absolute majority. we beat the populists on the left and right at their own game and this sends a positive signal that traditional center-right parties in europe, provided they have the right agenda, can
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actively win agendas and beat populists and beat the rhetoric of the left, which in the middle east let us to a second crisis. ♪ put you on aas currency manipulator watchlist. does that impact your ability to trade? >> we are having a very important dialogue with the americans to explain the situation, that it is overstated by the way statistics are set up. we also have very low inflation in switzerland, and it is necessary that we can use the instrument to maintain a reasonable monetary policy. francine: does it worry , when you are on the currency manipulator list, and does it hurt your credibility? >> we do not manipulate currency. that we have to intervene in order to steer monetary
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conditions. what is very important is that we never intend to weaken the frank to get an advantage over other countries, but we have to make sure the franc doesn't become too strong and we have a deflationary environment in switzerland. ♪ update within south africa, where moving rates around, does it effect of the economy? 's monetary policy and effective tool for you -- is monetary policy an effective tool for you? >> it is. if it wasn't, we wouldn't be using it. problem thate the we haveral world has, flexibility. but our forecast is on
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stability. policy been adjusting with the challenges of price stability. ♪ it is expected to do pretty good in canada. despite this, is there anything you worried about? >> we always worry about the state of the global economy and challenges that might be around the corner. clearly, from our perspective, making sure we have a strong trading relationship with the u.s. and mexico is job one. that is why we are getting on this first and foremost. we will keep managing other risks, risks around household debt you are concerned about. >> and productivity. can you fix productivity? thee have to try to get out things we can get at. we have a big focus on worker training. we are a country that continues to embrace immigration so that
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we can deal with changing and challenging demographics in our country. those things are important building blocks. we are also looking at how we can make the regulatory framework even more advantageous. canada is a good place to do business. we want to keep improving it. ♪ >> what we have seen is unprecedented. confessed and taken full responsibility for misjudgment, and the lack of a full assessment of the situation , inputting forward the bill. but let me make it clear, hand on my heart, that bill was well-intended to ensure hong kong could discharge its international obligations in tackling serious crime and to plug a loophole in our existing regime, without having any legal assistance on criminal matters
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that have anything to do with other parts of china. >> you have said you are willing to quit, if you could. would you quit if that could help resolve the crisis in hong kong? : it is nottive lam difficult to quit. but walking away from such a big dilemma and problem now is, in my view, not very responsible. haslinda: but it is one of the demands of the protesters, that you resign. would you, if it was for hong kong? lam: myecutive judgment right now, because we have several crises we need to manage at the same time, i will do my utmost to stay in this position to help arrest the current situation. ♪ clear and been quite on the record, climate change has an impact. we have had bushfires in australia for thousands of years
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and indeed we have a regular bushfire season, but we absolutely acknowledge climate change has worsened the intensity of these fire events. that is something we know very clearly at the moment. >> the prime minister said he wants to tread very carefully on climate targets because he doesn't want to hurt jobs. >> what we are saying is that we are focused and committed to policies that are environmentally effective and economically responsible. we have commitments to effective action on climate change. in fact, we are one of a handful of countries that have not just made, but eaten admission targets agreed to in kyoto by more than four hundred million tons of co2. we are on track to beat our nations targets agreed to in paris. in ourssions intensity economy is on track to be reduced by two thirds. that is more ambitions -- more ambitious than the eu, canada,
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new zealand and other countries around the world. so we do have effective measures but in the end what we are guided by a particular measure that we like things better for makenvironment, and not things worse, as well as being economically responsible. ♪ viviana: plenty from davos still ahead, more conversations about climate change, how it is spurring businesses to change their practices and also changing the flow of capital. >> starting to show that sustainability matters. viviana: this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we absolutely support any kind of regulation that continues to sue for innovation were value can really be demonstrated, but also more transparency and particularly discounts. ♪ viviana: you are watching " bloomberg best." i'm viviana hurtado. let's get back to the topic of climate change, the central
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theme of this year's world economic forum. it is an issue bloomberg will cover in depth through the bloomberg green initiative. this week, it launched. many business leaders who spoke with bloomberg in davos discussed the importance of sustainability and environmental responsibility, starting with the chief executives of global energy companies. ♪ >> the industry hasn't seen anything like this for decades and decades, so it is a big part of what many of the big energy companies are doing. we spend a lot of time on it. stay tuned, there will be more coming. 2 billion more people on the planet, one third more energy needed, we need to reduce emissions, increase energy. it will take all forms. we need to be careful about our investments. it is going to transform itself in the next decade. companies need to get on with this. and many of them are. >> do you see climate issues as an x potential risk -- as an
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existential risk for a company like bp? >> about 10 years ago we got over production volume. it is about value over volume and running a company, you have to think about value. that comes from a lot of things. we have a big renewable business today, biofuels and wind businesses. we don't have the safe returns that we have today. we need to set up policies around the world to change the demand patterns of the market, because supply doesn't create economics, it is supply and demand. you can't do it with supply. you actually have to change demand profiles. ♪ >> the economy becomes more efficient, cleaner and more competitive. industry jobs, huge and positive. it is not only the point of how you produce electricity, you produce it in a more efficient and cleaner manner, that is what you have to contemplate.
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it is not, this is good, that is bad. that is better. and that is what we are doing. >> you are investing big. alone,look at austria you pumped in $500 million in wind and solar farms. what kind of potential and growth, and after australia, where do you go? have invested $35 billion in the states. now we are investing the range of 45 bit -- $4 billion to $5 billion a year. we are pleased to do so. the demand is there, and we would like to contribute with more clean energies. ♪ announcedast year we
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our new statement of purpose. be aads like, not to progressive energy and solutions partner and reaching a sustainable future. oil and gas is not dead. so this is our new statement of purpose. and does a result, we are really anding at our portfolio, this year we have allocated around 5% of our capex for renewable energy, for new energies, which is solar and wind. i think this is futureproofing .he organization it is what many call additional energy requirements.
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i still believe oil and gas will light a major role, but will be complement it by other forms of energy. ♪ is still-used plastic a big concern, increasingly so. what can you do to adapt? changing the packaging, but we would still be stuck by assuming brings the same way in 20 years? newse goody -- the good these that plastic bottles and cans are high-value items. for everyone we sell by 2030, basically re-using that material to make new bottles. market in the first sweden where of the package we sell will be recycled material. and then what you achieve is not just a zero packaging waste, but you have a much lower carbon footprint. we can solve two problems in one go with a surging economy. ♪ >> we are seeing now a much,
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much larger consumer interest and much more interest from financial markets per that is a good thing because it means you get rewarded for the effort you are doing in that space. . >> when you look at the world economy, is there a danger that when recession hits, green initiatives are left behind? >> the momentum that has been reached is such that it is here to stay. that tipping point is either passed us or already here, and will stay with us. and that is a good thing. it should not be cyclical in terms of a big commitment. it is not cyclical when it comes to our commitment. ♪ >> we are facing a climate crisis. every company has to do something. i have children and i have a grandson and they are going to look at me and say, what did you do? and our employees are also asking us, expecting us to do something? areinda: how much pressure
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shareholders putting on companies like astrazeneca to do something? moreareholders, more and shareholders are asking what we do in this area. the pressure is not yet strong enough, to be frank, and companies will have to incentivize to do something about this climate crisis. haslinda: how should they be incentivized? >> ultimately everybody's going to be incentivized by their own employees. and as a leader, you go home every day and talk to your children, and children are going to say, what did you do for me? our grandchildren will look at us and say, what did you do for me? especially the millennials, young people are expecting us to do something. ♪ >> when you speak to chief executives, has something really changed? do protests matter, does greta thunberg matter? yeah, itms to me like,
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has changed. at least some of them have children and they have a sense, as we have, when we have talks with our children. dad, what are you going to do to help us in the future? companyi talk to leaders, they very much talk about sustainability. >> do you think this is a movement that is here to stay? dia call it a movement or do you call it a conscience, but is there a danger that people will forget about it? thateryone should be above it is just talk and talk and talk and then they go away and nothing has happened. we have to change the system. we don't have to fix the system, but we have to become aware of partxternal problems being of the interior system logic. i hope we can talk in davos about it. ♪
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important insurance. because china, as it glows into its global role, will have to come to terms with how it does invest abroad, and it needs support. ♪ . this is "bloomberg best" i'm viviana hurtado. the 2020oking back at world economic forum. a warning that climate change will upend global finance more than many leaders expect. the blackrock leader pledged it will make sustainability a focus of its investment strategy. at the bloomberg event, the year ahead. ♪ >> being in the capital markets for 44 years, it is very clear we in the capital markets bring risk forward, and we don't wait
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until the risk is in front of us. there are times it happens, and that was the financial crisis, but in most cases we navigate the risk, and through that process we mitigate most risk. there is a greater belief in the science and as a result of that now, we should not avoid the conversation about climate change, because climate change is now becoming an investment investorsifferent as focus on a yield curve or whatever forms of risk we have. it is very clear to me now we need to bring forward better risk tools to navigate risk. letter is asking more companies to be self reporting cfd, so we havet better clarity on how each company is navigating these issues. i'm not here to tell you these
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are the best tools, there are good tools now and hopefully we have better tools. i believe we are on this long path. in 2019, most of the sustainable funds outperformed regular funds. you could argue that is a giant momentum trade. >> record inflows. >> yes, we had record flows. >> particularly into esg. >> record inflows into esg. as part of the announcement, everyone of our products will have a sustainable counterpart, so we can bring this forward and have more investment -- have more investors as part of this dialogue. but i want to say one important thing that i did not write about, but i kind of inferred. one of the central paragraphs was, climate change is going to -- and we as a
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society, as humans, we are going to use carbon for a long time. the key is to try to find ways of mitigating those risks while we are dependent on carbon, carbon recapture, there are many things we need to be doing. but my greatest concern is not that we as investors and we has capital markets are not going to find a lot of capital to invest in these project. my biggest fear is the dependability and the dependency we have on governments, because workingsee governments toward these long-term objectives. sign sinceere any you started this that governments have gotten better dealing with these issues? >> some governments have, but most are not. most governments are focused on electioneering on election cycles that we are not seeing
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any true come along-term planning. and this is one of the fundamental problems with climate change. it requires real planning. climate change is not something the federal reserve and central banks are going to be able to fix. my 40-odd years in this business, we have had five very large financial crises. central banks were able to navigate those crises, mitigate them, i'm not saying people weren't harmed but we were by and large able to fix those crises. climate change is not going to be fixed by a central bank. it is going to be fixed by a combination of public and private. ♪ viviana: that wraps up our review of the 2020 world economic forum. you can find much more conversation from davos at bloomberg.com, along with business news and analysis 24 hours a day. thanks for watching. i'm viviana hurtado.
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[captioning made possible by espn, inc.] ♪ i am taylor riggs in san francisco in for big ten/acc challenge. this is "bloomberg technology." coming up, women on pardon. goldman-sachs says it will not back companies going public if all the directors are white straight men. we will see how theism p.o.'s stack up. they say apple could reach a $2
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