tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg January 28, 2020 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
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are. -- wide as they are. sonali: are people willing to take on more risk in the u.s. because it is a safe place to be? mona: >> last year credit had a domino year. yearat repeats again this -- our guess is probably not. you won't get the same bank intervention with the fed and globally. incomere looking for convertible, there are opportunities for that still in fixed income. forine: we're waiting earnings -- apple was up almost 3% on the day. the flipside was starbucks and ebay coming into their earnings report. scarlet: quite the rebound from
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the last two days. after performance stretch where the s&p 500 did not rise or fall or than 1% by the close, we've got two or three days. romaine: that's volatility. double digit percentages above the 20 day average, not so for the nasdaq, which saw drop in activity. let's get a closer look at some of the stories from the markets with our reporters. >> i'm thinking about exactly what you and romaine were just talking about, volatility. breedlity does volatility. here's a chart showing exactly what we are talking about. for months without greater than a percent move up or down. now we have two back-to-back. 2018 in june until the
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beginning of october top -- of october, no one percent move, and then huge volatility as the sellers took over in the fourth quarter that year. earlier this year in the summer we didn't have 1% growth for a while and then we had that big volatility in august through september. here is that long stretch you willtalking about, and we probably see more volatility ahead. wanted to move that over into big moves were seen in tech, providing leadership with the infotech index up on the day. look at this chart inside my to the s&pelative 500. as you can see the highest going back since 2001. a lot of the index and the broad indexes are based on these tech earnings. no we are waiting for apple and the like and those can prove -- continue to provide leadership, that means markets can continue
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to go higher and there is little room for error on the downside risk. >> i'm watching the crude market, in positive territory after five sessions and negative territory off the coronavirus fears, of course. today marking a turnaround, a big beat there. but keep in mind the negative headline risk isn't really over. that is a narrative we will be looking at when we evaluate crude going down the road. since the coronavirus is down quite a bit, and you can see that in the seven day chart we are about to show, it's important to consider opec members coming out and saying they are monitoring the situation very closely. that's what i will have my eye on going into this week. thanks to abigail and everyone there on the markets desk.
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mona, let's talk about how you diversify. are there any real diversifiers left here now? mona: we truly believing in active management and diversification. what we are seeing from an equity perspective, is what we call the barbell approach. on one end of the barbell, not only robotics and mobile payments, cybersecurity, inc.'s have long-term secular beams well in a low rate environment. on the other end of the barbell we also like the rotation we started to see out of the defensive's and cyclicals. as the recovery continues, though sectors continue to work as well. more broadly, we continue to see value globally. we have to get over the coronavirus hump both in asia and europe before we make a move
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there as well. scarlet: what is your take on oil? plenty of supply, and then you have worries thanks to the coronavirus. mona: it's a sector we are staying away from right now. it's part of the value complex but we prefer natural's and industrials. i hate to interrupt you but we have starbucks coming out. romaine says he loves earnings season, there you go. beating consensus estimate by three pennies. comparable sales for the first quarter. this is retailers who look at comparable sales as opposed to revenue for a cleaner read. that was an increase of 6%. analysts were looking for more .6 percent on average. on the bottom line and comparable sales, you're getting a better than average read. the questions will all be on how the company is strategizing in
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the wake of the coronavirus. romaine: headlines crossing now saying their 2020 guidances unchanged, although it excludes the potential impact of the coronavirus. a lot of analyst notes out yesterday were talking about starbucks suppose your. have about 4000 locations in china. one of their biggest exposures is wuhan province. kevin johnson, the ceo weighing in on the statement about the coronavirus. they are taking a long-term view, which is interesting given china is a big growth opportunity. we are looking at starbucks trading a little how you're in the after hours. we will keep you posted on any further headlines, and were waking for -- waiting for results on andy and apple.
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md and apple. a investors who are watching apple after the bell have to sift through a lot of different data points. mark gurman joins us from los angeles. gone are the days where we fixate on the number of iphones and the average selling price, isn't that right? mark: that's right, and here are the days we focus on revenues for products other than the iphone. there has been a sea change in how we look at the company, for sure. >> can you tell us about what the big risk factors are? what can derail the love for apple that the market has? mark: the risk factors are basically down to the supply chain, and that doesn't seem like a really big deal to the company. anything there is to say about apple is about how precise they are in backup planning for
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scenarios like the coronavirus, they do will source everything to where they are sourcing the same component from multiple geographies. even the supply chain risks are taken care of for now. we saw the trade war did not hit them anywhere as hard as people expected. the iphone, and replacing the iphone is really a long-term issue for apple that they will have to confront at some point soon. we've seen sales are up this year compared to the decline they had in the holiday quarter a year ago. but that doesn't solve the long-term question of what is eventually going to replace the iphone if sales continue to slow down. so far it seems like it's a combination of services and other products, but that will need to continue. romaine: there has been a lot of optimism, the idea that once you have the 5g -- the 5g found that everyone is speculating about, that you could see the cycle accelerate. are you expecting apple to give
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any details of what type of products that might be in the pipeline and the timeframe for when those products might reach the market? mark: you are not going to see apple comment on future products or 5g or anything like that. what i can tell you is, for the first half of this year, is going to be a bigger launch period for apple than in years past in terms of the first two calendar quarters of the year. there's going to be a new, lower-cost iphone to replace the iphone 8 launching at the end of march or early april. there is a change to the ipad pro, then you get into the key iphone season a few months after that, in september and october. so it will be of any full year for apple products, including the 5g phones that you mentioned at the top. romaine: our thanks to mark gurman out there in los angeles. we also want to bring an update on starbucks, they have reported comp earnings, including
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sales growth as well as bottom-line and topline numbers. the shares have fluctuated. scarlet: starbucks giving an update on the coronavirus saying it closed over half its stores in china over the virus and the store closures are expected to materially affect results. having said that, the store closures are expected to be temporary and the guidance for 2020 remains unchanged when you exclude the coronavirus. >> the material number is a big question that will come into the call. romaine: that does it for the closing bell on this program. up next is "what'd you miss?" from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ romaine: live from bloomberg's world headquarters in new york, this is "what'd you miss?" around asains all u.s. stocks rebound from two days of losses. romaine: but the question is, "what'd you miss?" we will have the full breakdown with all the quarterly results and forecasts. airlineel holds, suspend some flights. will take a look at what's happening with the coronavirus. and a two state solution. president trump unveils a middle east peace plan. we'll talk to the person who drafted that proposal, white
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house senior advisor jared kushner. at first, let's recap some of the earnings we've gotten so far. starbucks earnings are out. the company reporting comp sales up about 6% in the quarter, slightly beating estimates for the quarter. several shut down stores in china because of the coronavirus outbreak. forecast for 2020 still and change, but excluding any impact from the coronavirus. shares have been towns -- bouncing around and after hours trading. scarlet: currently little change. and we have news on match, the company that owns tender, saying -- announcing the next ceo. the stock is trading a little bit lower in after hours trading, off by 3.5% right now. let's get back to the top story of the moment, the coronavirus. the death toll now at least 100.
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the center for disease control is of what -- advising travelers to avoid all nonessential trips to china to help prevent the spread of the virus. joining us is shery ahn. the markets have recovered but the fallout from the coronavirus continues. shery: we will see how markets react now that we have hong kong coming online at 9:30 p.m. we saw a slight rebound this week, but only after falling more than 6% in the last couple of sessions, given the spreading coronavirus. talking about 106 deaths, more than 4500 cases, the first human to human transmission in germany as well. at least for now, the numbers keep multiplying. come into the office, it seems we have more confirmed cases. about howried are we damaging it might be in the longer-term, now that they are stopping travel in and out of
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china? shery: we are talking about hundreds of billions of dollars that chinese people spend abroad. 40 million people now cannot travel. this is huge for the global economy. outbreak, thes ratio was tiny. now were talking about one for that the world's economy. that is china's gdp at the moment. hong kong is another huge problem because they were already reeling from seven months of protests. after this, -- add to this the concerns over coronavirus, and you have fewer tourists coming into hong kong, not to mention that now we are seeing measures to restrain travel from chinese nationals into hong kong. romaine: do we have any idea of how long this is going to last? some say it's the measure of china -- the measures they will have to take to keep people from
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moving around and how long that will last. shery: and the fact that already a lot of people have started traveling. one of the reasons people are angry about wuhan is that more than 5 million people had left the city before the lockdown took place. we have lockdowns in various cities, 40 million people not allowed to travel, but at the same time, this continues at a time when the incubation period could be up to two weeks. we've seen in the past that some people didn't even show symptoms of fever, so how do you screen their temperatures in key hubs around the world? the problem right now is that people have no idea where this is headed. to shery ahnthanks for that update. we want to recap some earnings going on with andy reporting earnings -- amd reporting earnings after the bell.
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the forecast coming and lighter than some analysts had expected. topline numbers did beat for the quarter, but the forecast causing some concern, about 2% after hours. reporting 2.5% below estimates. never mind what it reported for the fourth quarter, the outlook is down in after hours trading and starbucks beating on the bottom-line and topline, but when it comes to the coronavirus impact, it is said to have closed over half its stores in china over the virus and the outlook for the full year remains unchanged, but that excludes the impact of the virus. romaine: let's get back to the coronavirus and talk about the larger impact. we have a professor of epidemiology at the yale school of public health joining us right now. thanks for joining us. can you give us a sense of how long does it take to create or at least find some sort of treatment or vaccine for the
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people who might be exposed to the coronavirus? >> thank you very much for the invitation. in respect to your question, it takes months to years to develop andctive therapeutics treatments as well as vaccines. however, in these type of emergency situations, as we ,itnessed with ebola and zika nih and global partners have been able to roll these out very quickly under initiatives unbind who -- run by who. vaccines being prepared for the coronavirus were slated to come out in the next three or four months for clinical trials. us how you feel that china is handling the outbreak? are the current measures being taken enough? background,ive some we are in the exponential phase
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of the outbreak. the numbers are up to 4500 cases that have been reported today and the numbers are rapidly rising. the numbers reflect infections that occurred weeks ago. the actual numbers of people infected are like a much higher than indicated, and there have been estimates from mathematical models that there may be up to 100,000 people infected at present. these numbers are alarming, but may be true. with respect to what china is this is unprecedented, s, lockdowns ban of over 50 million people. we have never witnessed this in history. it's not clear if it will be effective or if it will be too late or if there will be untoward effects in terms of driving people from seeking medical care.
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, howe map is pretty scary quickly and how far and wide this is going. does it have a breaking point at which it could get out of control? dr. ko: there are two really porting questions that were still trying to get evidence from as the epidemic has evolved. the first one is how many people moved away from the epicenter of the outbreak in the city of wuhan that were infected with the virus? as you know from the lunar new year, over 5 million people left that city. how many of those were infected will be an important question in terms of how this plays out. the second question, which you alluded to in your report before, is whether the chinese ministry of health stated that people can transmit the disease before they become ill. we have some evidence now from the case in germany that it may in fact be the case. if that is the case, it's going
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to be a major challenge to how we combat this outbreak. likeet: use a lot of words challenges and underreported. if that is the case, why has the who declined to declare this an international emergency? anl declaring it international emergency change the way that countries are responding to it? i think ist answer being deliberated at this moment. they did place the outbreak at terms of high alert. it's not an international concern as of yet. that may change dramatically as we see the epidemic evolved, and especially as it is spreading throughout different countries outside of china. joining dr. albert ko us from new haven. as we mentioned earlier, a lot of earnings are crossing the wire, ebay among them. ebay shares moving lower in after-hours trading after its first order net revenue outlook.
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this should be a better looking report. >> this is a solid report. 2020, very full year strong numbers comparing to intel which will have growth investment of single digits. expectations, very strong results from a segment that was expected to be weak at best. , very high expectations, intel has pc, cpu supply issues. expectations are just very high. scarlet: you mentioned 100 theret plus gain, is anything the company could have said or may say in the earnings call that could turn the stock around in after-hours trade? >> expectations are
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conservative. intel made the same case and we've seen these buildups and contractions. this is a conservative estimate. we saw a similar reaction from amd last quarter. >> is the rally just over four amd? fundamentala execution standpoint, you cannot fault amd. they continue to do what they say and say what they do. they have been phenomenal from an execution standpoint. on the other hand, intel has a credibility issue they have to overcome. bestne: and were talking performance, s&p 500, last year in the year before. we will see if this can continue. thanks for joining us. coming up, we are awaiting apple, coming up in just a few minutes. a lot of high expectations there as well.
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scarlet: we have apple results out. let's start with the first quarter revenue number, analysts were looking for 88 point 4 billion, so better-than-expected. first quarter iphone revenue better than the expected $51.5 billion. was 12.7 billion dollars, shy of analyst estimates $12.98 billion. four dollars 90 on since is better than the $4.56 anticipated. -- $4.90. jump in services revenue, 64% of products, and
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even china up 3.1%. a little light from what folks were expecting but some are thinking that could be flatter. so the fact that you still had growth there is significant. on the: let's also focus revenue outlook for this quarter. fiscal second-quarter revenue, 63 million dollars-60 $7 million. here,etter than expected perhaps gone are the days where apple used to guide low and be really conservative only to beat those lower estimates later on. , analysts were looking for 38.1%. in the stock is moving higher in after-hours trading. isning us from san francisco taylor riggs and we have eric. eric: the iphone numbers are great. this is unbelievable.
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i want to correct something you said earlier. they used to guide low and beat them, now they are guiding high and beating them. things look good for them. taylor: is it enough to say that apple is not just relying on the iphone? eric: the iphone did incredibly well. that is something we were expecting. we are going into a 5g megacycle over the next few years so that will be a big driver for iphone sales. i'm not worried about that in the next couple of years, but the service is part of the business, i would like it to be a little bit more because that is where the long term high-margin revenues are going to come from. romaine: taylor riggs, you cover apple and these companies pretty heavily. what caught your eye most out of this report? taylor: i think i will put it down to the iphone, only 27% of
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the revenue comes from services. .2% comes from iphone coming in with strong iphone revenue, as long as it didn't totally tank last quarter, analysts are going to be happy. the story will be the second half of 2020. eric mentioned we are in a 5g super cycle upgrade. if we get the iphone upgrade and a shorter replacement cycle, you start to see that fold into the second half of 2020. i think iphone revenue coming in strong is a very good story. scarlet: that's a story that we are watching and monitoring closely here. eric, you keep close tabs on the supply chain for apple. what has it shown you? eric: we saw two things that were really interesting. we sought measured units were much harder than people were expecting, coming out of the new iphone launch, and that really
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surprised people. the iphone 11, i apologize. that the supply chain wasn't making as much money as they used to make. apple has really crushed them down as far as margins go. romaine: there's a lot of talk that when the 5g rollout finally happens, the replacement cycle might consolidate a little bit more. there will be more people interested in buying iphone. eric: i think that is right. it's something that is affordable and will roll out quickly. in the u.s., we are not doing it quite that way. were doing it at 30 gigahertz, so it's more expensive. it's not as interesting here in the u.s., so u.s. sales not be quite as important but in europe and asia it will be very important and a big driver.
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do we know anything else about apple in china? taylor: the analyst calls will start in an -- in under an hour. for now i'm at least, within -- with some of the estimates not yet folded into those numbers, i think we will continue to talk about it as well when we get to the analyst call. i know we talk a lot about the services. i would point out the wearables and accessories number as well that came in for these. the first quarter come in at 10 billion versus estimates of 9.5 billions. suppliesir pods were a -- apprise blowout -- were a surprise blowout. i think air pods here are really big, a bold case for the stock as well going forward. tim is a supply chain
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ninja. he has double sourced everything. a lot of the manufacturing does happen in china and china is largely on lockdown where they are. the bigger problem will be the growth from chinese buyers, lunar new yearhe you have buying there. i'm worried about that a little bit going forward but it doesn't seem like it will affect the next quarter. servicesappy about the but the mac and ipad had huge declines. do we care? eric: with matt, i really don't care. mac, ithac -- with really don't care. the ipad is another thing that gets sold to iphone buyers. scarlet: the replacement cycle for an ipad is much shorter.
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you don't need to buy an ipad every three years. romaine: the phone is something people really depend on. scarlet: it is an appendage. romaine: tim cook saying 1.5 the base.vices are taylor riggs, when you talk about the number of people who have these, how much is apple able to leverage that into additional revenue? goodr: that's a very point. it's all part of the apple ecosystem. it's pulling you in and making you download some of the apps and services and that's where you get the higher-margin services revenue to come in. chinac was alluding to, needs to learn to continue to push ahead. thatave samsung and huawei have other big lobe markets here. a 1.5 billion installed base is good for the companies, they can tie people into the
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higher-margin. recurring revenue comes from the services as well. scarlet: a final question to eric, tim cook will be on the conference call. what are you looking to hear from him? eric: i think everything is great in iphone and wearable sales. i think service will be fine. i most concerned that what is going on in china with the coronavirus. eric andour thanks to taylor riggs out there in san francisco. apple shares up about 2.5% in after-hours trading. we will see if that holds coming into tomorrow. coming up, president trump unveiling his plan for peace in the middle east. will have more from her interview with jared kushner, coming up next. -- from our interview with jared kushner, coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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scarlet: just to recap the earnings bonanza we got in the last 30 minutes, apple trading at a record high after second-quarter revenue forecast topped analyst estimates. starbucks pulling back a little bit, even though it had a beat on the top line and the bottom line. it is closing more than half its stores in china over the coronavirus, that perhaps threatening its sales outlook. it kept its full-year outlook unchanged, but that excludes the virus. estimates, but it is simply not good enough. let's switch gears because president trump unveiled his plan for middle east peace at the white house today. the proposal keeps jerusalem as the israeli capital and offers a path to a two-state solution. the palestinians have already rejected the plan. jared kushner sat down with
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kevin cirilli to discuss the policy. >> president trump has shown the israeli people that he cares about their issues and security. it's only because president trump has been such a good partner and they trust him that he has been able to get israel to make historic compromises. it creates a framework for the palestinian leadership. if they want to have a stake about what they've spoken that sit aspire to, it's time to at the table and negotiate where the line is drawn and try to move the line. there is a lot of flexibility that can be had if they come to the table. >> you said there is a four-year implementation period for this plan? >> a lot of people have been suffering for a long time. it's not helping their people lead a better life. the palestinian leadership claims to want statehood, but
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you have to show that you're capable of statehood. kevin: what do you mean by that? >> there's not too many states that if they don't get what they want, they call for days of rage. they get in a room and talk about their differences and find solutions. they've had billions of dollars of aid coming in every year. a lot of the leaders, their friends and families are rich and it has not trickled down to the people. over time they have created illogical constructs, hoping they would keep it in place. we have made in the most real offer they have ever had and we will finally smoke out if they are serious about peace or if they like profiting from the status quo. of relationships in the palestinian community. is a would appear there new generation that eventually could take leadership.
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>> the policy of the administration is to deal with the elected leader. that it's aay position where it is a vibrant democracy in any shape or form. there are not a lot of human rights, there no freedom of the press. it is a complicated place. then to say they are ready for statehood is a big leap. what we have done is outline the criteria we think are necessary in order for there to be estate. we have lined up an economic plan setting economic successes. $50 billion could be invested along with making reforms that are necessary. we have given them a pathway they can take to action if they want to become a viable state. by putting this idea out, this will show the rest of the world that israel is serious on peace. it gets israel to make compromises they have never made
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for theand it outlines palestinian people who have been lied to and senior leadership fail time and time again, to show that there is a pathway to peace and they now have a willing partner in israel to do so. >> when i was at the white house covering the remarks by president trump, he manson -- he mentioned boris yeltsin. is the u.k. on board with this? >> we have kept this plan very quiet. things, been one of the a lot of people are shocked that we've been able to have such a detailed plan. the fact that we've had no leaks has been great. that being said, there are some partners that we trust. we've had a lot of good discussions over the last couple of years. i have dealt with boris johnson when he was the foreign minister and he had a great deal of
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enthusiasm for this. i've dealt with people on his team and they have given us great feedback to make this better. i'm hopeful they will put out supportive statements to encourage both parties to negotiate on this basis. we have a lot of other countries in europe and the middle east we have been talking with and a lot of the concepts in this plan a concepts that people have been pushing for very long time. >> what about the jordanians? >> i think the jordanians would greatly benefit from seeing this plan through. they are trying to take advantage of instability and their economy would greatly and if it from the stability and infusion of capital that would come from this. it would create a ton of jobs in jordan. you have two separate conflicts that have been conflated together. you have the conflict between the israelis and palestinians, which is a territorial and security dispute. you have to figure out how to draw the line, and that's a
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fairly arbitrary exercise. the next dispute is between israel and the islamic world, -- israels based on is affirming the role of the king of jordan with the muslim holy sites. in addition to that, any muslim who wants to come from throughout the world to come and visit can do so in a peaceful manner. that is a big thing. people in indonesia, saudi arabia, dubai, if they want to come and pray at the mosque, there's no flights, and israel is willing to welcome them. trump'sered president first foreign trip to saudi arabia and we flew from saudi arabia to israel. saudi arabia has proven itself to be an incredibly important ally in the middle east for the united states, regardless of who
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is in the white house. what role you foresee them playing here? >> the king of saudi arabia and the crown prince have been strong supporters of the palestinian cause in the palestinian people for a very long time. they've supported them they've supported the palestinian people. they have pushed us very hard to say it is critical that there is a state for the palestinian people. they understand security threats. they had their own threats right now so they are sympathetic to israel's security situation with gaza where they have a real terror group firing rockets into the country. the saudi's don't have any issue with the israelis. there's no israelis who have ever killed any saudi's. saudi is hated by iran. they have a common enemy and we've been hopefully able to bring them closer together on that.
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they've been very supportive of trying to create a palestinian state and also making sure the mosque is safeguarded and that muslims have the ability to pray at the mosque. i think they will like a lot of concept in the plan and they will see it is in arabia's interest to have the conflict ended. the conflict is held on to buy a lot of radicals and saudi is fighting against extremism. the existence of this conflict is asked -- is distorted by extremists to radicalize people. bezos foam packing -- phone hacking, has that impacted this? we focus on what are america's interest, what are the objectives we? ? are trying to accomplish and we focus on the actions and relationships necessary to do that. >> from our point of view, we know what america's priorities
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are and we work hard every day to try to bring them forward. again, there are different topics or subjects that come up every day, but president trump was elected by the people to make our economy strong and make our country safe, and he will work through any issues that come up in order to accomplish that. understand why this is so important, but folks outside the washington bubble, why should they care about peace in the middle east? why is that important for americans? >> that's a great question. what president trump has done strategically over the last couple of years is increase america's energy production tremendously. historic reliance on the middle east for america had to do with it being oil and gas supply to america. now america is energy independent, thanks to president trump's policies, which gives us
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flexibility and has also wrought a lot of prosperity. some of the plans to eliminate fossil fuels would be detrimental to america. americans big interest in the middle east right now is to stop extremism. 9/11 happened because you had radicals who wanted to kill americans, and we have this all over the world right now. the big fight we have been doing is, how do we win the long term, ideological battle against extremism? you will never have a stable middle east that will allow people to focus on better jobs and better lives if we don't resolve this issue. this was happening in the 1920's. there was a cleric who was the custodian of the mosque and he would always use it to saber rattle, to say the mosque is in trouble or in danger. he would use it to stoke anti-semitism and all different issues.
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are christian, muslim, a jew, if you want to come to jerusalem and pray in the way you want, you are welcome. you can come safely. that will be the greatest thing for humanity and it will stop a lot of the terrorists and radicalize her from doing what they do. was jared kushner, senior advisor to president trump. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪
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romaine: earnings season is here, apple moving higher in after hours trading, reporting revenue that beat wall street expectations. sales forecast also coming in above expectations. ebay shares moving lower. in, their forecast coming light, of -- down about 3%. starbucks even slightly lower for the company did appear to
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beat on a lot of the main numbers but there is still concern with the coronavirus and how it will affect operations in china. by our bloomberg editor. the earnings have been foreshadowed and now overshadowed by what is happening in china. it was a decent quarter, but everyone is really watching what the company was going to say about closures. it gave more details, it's now closing or than half of its stores there. but the ceo reaffirmed its commitment to the country which has been a key market. it's one of its two key growth markets. the estimated will have a material impact. they walk away from it now? sally: they are only temporarily
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closing the stores and they will continue to monitor the situation as it evolves. they may be giving further details on a call that is taking place right now, but for the moment they just reaffirmed her commitment to the country, and u.s. sales have done very well. china's growth is a key market for the country. scarlet: the operating margin expanded from a year ago. we know the company is dealing with higher costs such as higher wages for its workers. sally: exactly. under the ceo they have made an effort to expand technology. some of those initiatives are starting to pay off. romaine: we are talking a lot about china. how are u.s. sales? it seems like they had a bit of a rebound. sally: it's another sign they are doing well in this country. they are making lots of efforts to lure customers back. romaine: bigger drinks, more
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