tv Bloomberg Daybreak Europe Bloomberg January 29, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EST
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manus: good morning from dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." nejra: i'm nejra cehic. these are today's top stories. the coronavirus death toll climbs to 132, as the uae ts first cases. johnson & johnson says it is working on a preventative vaccine. u.s. futures are positive as washington stopped short of canceling flights to china. markets will see if the fed addresses the issue after today's rate decision. the european commission set to unveil its guidelines over 5g after huawei was granted partial
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access to build the u.k.'s network. we speak with the u.k. group's vice president at this hour -- in the next hour. ♪ manus: breaking news, another corporate taking action as the coronavirus impacts spreads. halt all china production until february 9. we are taking appropriate measures, no dramatic impact for them at that stage. that was 24 hours ago. as the story around the coronavirus in the uae, we have had the first confirmation of a family returning from wuhan. they have been identified. we now have a pretty significant
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automaker putting the brakes, as operations, halting china production until february 9. we have a host of breaking news to get through. nejra: we are seeing this reverberate around the corporate world. operationsfor financial servicd travel companies. starbucks temporarily closing 2000 stores in china to assess the outbreak of the coronavirus. we have to get back to the earnings and this is happening during earnings season. santander numbers coming through. manus: absolutely. we had those numbers a short moment ago. year,nds for the whole $.23, in the backcourt of 13 since. it will be split -- $.13. it will be split. how will the market take that? we were observing the sale of
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their custody business. they got 711 million euros. to a certain extent, this will help the situation with the capital build. -- 35l was boosted by 25 basis points. the stock was down by 18% over the past year. that has been one of the uphill battles, to bring the challenge to her front door to build that capital. that is up by 85 basis points, telling the market we will hit 12% by the end of 2020. that is the capital story. you have the story of the gains from the custody business. so net income, never let a story be spoiled by the numbers. a very comfortable beat on the quarter versus the estimate, 2.56. you have novartis. nejra: fourth-quarter core eps --es in at one dollar 32
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$1.32. novartis saying the core operating income is up high single to low double digits. some of the other numbers i am looking at, net sales coming in stronger, $12.4 billion versus an estimate of 12.36. dividends per share stronger than expected at 295 swiss francs. fourth-quarter core operating profit, $3.46 billion. estimate was $3.54 billion. that is coming in a little bit light. the fourth-quarter core eps number coming in a little soft. just as the numbers are coming through from novartis number we ask ourselves how pharmaceutical companies might see their supply chains disrupted because of the coronavirus. bloomberg intelligence putting out some research about big pharmacy disruptions in china that can be possible on the coronavirus storm. they say precautionary measures
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in light of coronavirus may weigh on large farmer -- large pharma's china sales. coming up, we will speak to the ceo of novartis. manus: indeed. we will also have a conversation -- at 1:00 p.m. in the u.k. her challenge on capital and dividends and the business in latin america, we will discuss that. to the markets. she will be joining the bloomberg team later on. i want to talk about gold. rally, on a four day you've got consumer confidence at a five day high. we have dropped this morning. consumer confidence at a five-month high. bloomberg comfort index at a nine year high. global holdings of oil have hit a seven-year high.
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is gold your haven of choice? we can debate that with our guest host. to global stocks. 1.2 $5 trillion was wiped out the value of global stocks since the hang seng moment on january 20. that is asia-pacific. that is specifically to the asian market, which is where the eue of the storm is at the moment -- i of the storm is at the moment -- eye of the storm is at the moment. citigroup says the drop is overly done by five dollars. back: we definitely clawed losses in u.s. european equities yesterday after the worst selloff in performance. months. 500 -- four the 10 year yield climbed five basis points yesterday. we slip a bit today. apple gaining in extended trade. we talk about the impact of
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coronavirus on companies. for apple, we saw the gain, because holiday result topped estimates. services revenue missed expectations, which limited the share gains. the coronavirus hanging over apple's resurgence, because it issued a wider than usual sales forecast to reflect what tim cook called uncertainty caused by the virus outbreak that could of course affect apples and supply chains. china's coronavirus is spreading further. the death toll has arisen to 13 2. hong kong announced restrictions on travel for mainland china and japan is working on evacuation plans. willrope, germany said it identify the cluster of local patients infected by a woman from shanghai. manus: corporations have been taking measures. we have broken the news in regards to toyota to mitigate the impact of the outbreak. united airlines says it will suspend most flights to china
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starting on saturday -- flight to china. starbucks is a shuddering 2000 shuddering 2000 coffee shops -- shuttering 2000 coffee shops. let's get to our north asia correspondent, stephen engle, who joins us via webcam from hong kong. another major corporation taking action. the latest? >> i mean, i lived through sars in hong kong, and there are direct parallels to how the city is responding. there is a rush for facemasks and hand sanitizers, which is very hard to find. people are staying home. this is the end of the lunar new year holiday, so usually people are out and about. the numbers are not as dire. you have more cases now in china sars,s coronavirus than
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but the number of deaths is far fewer. you know, about the same amount of cases. however, in china, you are seeing some 60,000 people right now, the latest numbers from china, that are under observation. they are not confirmed cases. there is a lot of speculation as well about a some to medic asymptomatic-- transmission, whether that is possible. some people saying the border with china should be closed off completely so a lot of uncertainty right now. nejra: stephen engle, thank you for joining us. joining us for the hour is simon french, chief economist at panmure gordon. i appreciate it might be harder to quantify the impact on global growth right now of the spread of the coronavirus. in your best estimate, will the impact be short or long lived
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given we are seeing a lot of companies, out talking about the impact on their operations as earnings season is getting underway? simon: it is a very difficult question to answer. the reason we are quite data -- but what you alluded to is the fact that carpets are not waiting for that data -- corporates are not waiting for that data. you are right to say this will have a near-term chilling effect on economic activity. china has contributed around 1/3 to 40% of global growth since 2010. even it is just confined to the industrial economy, that is considerable headwind potentially to growth in the first quarter. it will depend on what the data tells us about infection rates. manus: good morning to you. still very hard to assess the reaction. if we look at two markets, the s&p and bond markets, the s&p
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still in positive territory. simon,d market, however, has been pushed by frontloaded risk, hasn't it? which is the more vigilant or prescient market to focus on? simon: i would agree with you that the bond market is telling you more signals that are directly related to risks over the coronavirus. i don't think the equity market has yet caught up with the news, partly because it is taking a fairly sanguine view ahead of any material data on infection scope. there are a couple of events here which we look back at in our analysis in terms of the impact on emerging market equities from both the coronavirus and ebola virus. -- equity markets have to be world health organization declared this in international event. that equity markets declined for about 13 weeks, so about one
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quarter. recover somean to of those losses. that relies on the control of the infections being very similar to what we have seen in terms of sars and ebola. nejra: how much does it rely on a central banks, whether emerging markets are developed markets are taking steps to preempt this impact? simon: i think it would be a policy mistake at this point for either the federal reserve, the bank of england, other major central banks to change monetary conditions based on what we know thus far. inevitably, they will talk about being vigilant and the impact that may come in terms of economic growth from all of this and ensuring that they have the firepower to respond. nejra: simon french from panmure gordon stays with us for the hour. let's get to the first word news. president trump has announced his peace plan for the middle east. he said it is a win-win solution that will make the region safer
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but the palestinians have already said it is a nonstarter. the two state solution would leave an undivided jerusalem at israel's capital and give a green light or israel to annex existing west bank settlements. over >> we have studied the issue -- >> over the last couple of years, we have studied the issue, studied the region. we have been able to bring the israeli government together to agree on different parameters to put a two state solution option on the table for the palestinians. nejra: apple posted solid results from the holiday season amid a rebound from iphone demand. the tech giant reported nearly $92 billion in revenue for its fiscal first quarter. for the second quarter, apple issued a wider revenue range than usual due to uncertainty created by the spread of coronavirus. in the u.s., president trump's lawyers concluded their defense, but they did not completely quash a drive to get additional testimony from a john bolton. we have learned senate majority leader mitch mcconnell told a
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closed-door meeting that he does not yet have the 51 votes needed to swiftly acquit the president. global news 24 hours a day, on-air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. manus? manus: coming up, the coronavirus spreads. we take a closer look at the human and economic impact across the world. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm nejra cehic in london. manus: another piece of breaking news not on coronavirus. this is on dealmaking in our region. saudi telecom offers $2.39 billion from a vodafone's egyptian business. pretty big deal at the moment. saudi telecom assigning a nonbinding memorandum of understanding. they will pick up 55% of
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vodafone's shareholding in vodafone egypt. it is effective for 75 days. dealmaking in the region. nejra: china's markets closed for the lunar new year. investors are left unable to directly hedge their exposure. there is a range of proxies that traders are flocking to. here with your chart that matters is dani burger. >> certainly a nerve-racking week not to be able to trade on the chinese exchange is. we have seen a lot of these etf's picked up in popularity for hedges during this lunar new year. shares china listed u.s. etf's. you can see what has happened to the total option volume. this is more than 100,000 contracts traded. the last time we saw this much option value was back in 2015 when the yuan was devalued. , thethe past five days
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majority has actually been call options. those are bullish options. traders not only generally hedging, but hedging for upside in chinese companies. manus: thank you very much. dani burger with your very latest on chart that matters. it is all about the coronavirus and the continuous spread. we have fears among a whole range of issues, from the human impact, the economic reality, hospitality travel and leisure stocks with chinese exposures articulately vulnerable -- particularly vulnerable. our next guest says it european european hotels have been impacted by contagion concerns, as their exposure is not just china, but asia, the pacific, and the region. simon french is our guest host this morning. he is from panmure gordon.
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we are looking at an escalation in terms of the response mechanism from the united states and the u.k., for example -- u.k. for example, halting flights into china as of saturday. we are seeing this escalation in terms of the travel and leisure business. give me your take on the response mechanism at the moment as it stands with the coronavirus. monique: yes, absolutely. obviously, any impact in terms of travel and flight restrictions have a material impact on what we might see from hotels in terms of demand for hotel rooms. we are seeing that across the region at the moment. we don't have specific stats yet. , global hotel companies with exposure to the region, are offering guests free refunds until february 8 for cancellations that they want to make in the region. when we look at tourism stats
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from mainland china to hong kong and macau over the first three days of the chinese new year, those stats are down between 70% and 80%. nejra: how material and long-lived do expect the impact to be on the share prices of these companies? monique: interesting question. we have already seen material moves from these companies. the hotel companies it down a -- at the start of the year companies down 10%-12% at the start of the. -- the year. that could be more weakness. -- there could be more weakness. manus: the one thing that struck me in your research was about the growth potential and this is the biggest risk to the market, isn't it? this is one of the biggest risks in terms of anything which could halt or stymie the pipeline of versus accor.
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monique: if you look at the current direct exposure, about 8% of their profits come from greater china at the moment. when you look at the growth, it is about 15% of the growth. i think it is far too early to be calling for any risks to the pipeline there. clearly, if the impact last longer, the impact from growth could be more material than the impact on day one profits. nejra: historically, disease-related callbacks have been followed by solid rebounds. is it too early to assess whether that will happen at this point with coronavirus? monique: i think a little too early at the moment because we don't know how much more it will spread, when the virus gets contained. when we have, and got a better handle on it, you could well see a decently bound in the stocks -- decent rebound
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in the stocks. manus: i know you say it is very early, very difficult to get a handle on that. is one of the figures consequential risks about capital expenditures if there is an escalation in coronavirus which is really detrimental to growth? it is about capex and x,, isn't it? simon: really good analysis. what you have got here is the human capital risk alongside the physical capital risk. if human capital is restricted from moving around the world, then some of the capex cycle that we expect to bounce back in 2020 -- we have had the imf growth upgrade, or certainly an expectation of a pickup in 2020 -- that would be called into question. their inventory cycle in terms of hard capital but also human capital.
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capital doesn't augment on its own. it requires a human component. in terms of trying to quantify, i know it is the 64 thousand dollar question, trying to quantify in terms of economic growth, you're talking about understanding at what point free starts to return to steady state before you can start to call the magnitude of this disruption. nejra: what about the timing of the coronavirus for hotel companies right now? does it a come at a time that is already challenging were a lot of them are having to put a lot of capital expenditure into their products and facing competition from airbnb, for example? monique: there's a couple of things to bear in mind. obviously, the impact on trading in the short-term will be more material because it erupted at the start of the chinese new year. that is a big travel period for the hotels.
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some of these hotels have also been under pressure, particularly in hong kong. we have already seen a big drop off in tourism from mainland china to hong kong as a result of the protests and how long they have been impacting trading. if i look back to the third-quarter results from ihg , greater china trading was down about 6%. nejra: simon french from panmure gordon staying with us and thank you so much for joining us, monique pollard. we will speak to the ceo of novartis as the company reports its full-year earnings. don't miss that interview at 7:30 a.m. london time. this is bloomberg. ♪
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for the fourth quarter that missed the average analyst estimates. annmarie hordern has a cracking day ahead of her. taken away -- take it away. >> good morning. outside of the earnings and the 2020 outlook, we want to get his insight on the coronavirus. is there anything in the novartis pipeline are anything they can do to help with this response? what does it mean for novartis and really the pharmaceutical industry as a whole's supply chain? what about devices, medical devices? what is the impact on the supply chain? finally, novartis has exited their vaccine unit. the chief executive officer is a medical doctor who graduated from harvard medical school. he led novartis' response to the h1n1 virus when he was in the states. he was under immense pressure to get a vaccine out for the swine.
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bloomberg's european headquarters in the city of london. i'm a rich a hitch. manus: i'm manus cranny in dubai. these are your top headlines on daybreak europe. death tollirus climbs to 132. uae reports first cases. johnson & johnson says it will work on a preventative vaccine today. we speak to the european pharma giant novartis. the hang seng slumps as it comes back online. u.s. futures are positive. washington stops short of canceling flights to china.
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the european commission is set to unveil its guidelines over 5g after while way was granted partial access to build the u.k.'s network. we speak to the group's u.k. executive this hour. ♪ manus: let's clay -- take a quick with through some of the markets. gold rising to a seven-year hides -- high. 0.1 -- 0.5%. are they pricing things correctly? some of the asian markets are coming back online this morning. rises as market
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inventories roll down. citigroup says this is five dollars to dramatic a drop. this kind of level is going to invoke a response, potentially a cut in march. good morning. nejra: futures in the u.s. and europe point to another day of gains. the worst session in four months for the s&p 500. we slip a little, 165 handle. apple, we saw some gains after holiday results topped estimates. share gains were limited because the coronavirus cloud is hanging over the resurgence. apple had to issue an unusual sales forecast to reflect the uncertainty caused by the coronavirus which could impact its supply chain. manus: did you buy a new fitbit? is that what it is? you got me wearable tech?
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i have to do 10,000 steps a day, apparently. i'm failing miserably. the rest ofbout these markets. will carney make a final cut? a last toronto after 6.5 years. the first non-british governor will chair his last ever rate meeting tomorrow. he has mostly guided investors before the crucial policy meetings, this time he is allowing them to figure it out for themselves. it is 50-50. simon french never leaves lives to such vagaries. carney torched this at the beginning of january, didn't he? blamey has himself to that we shot up to an 80% probability of a cut. are you 50-50 on a cut? >> i'm never 50-50.
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i don't think the bank of england will cut. i think it will be a split vote. 6-3 in favor of no change. we had a theory. it is not just mark carney. also had other mpc members talking about the prospect of a rate cut. i think carney will be one member, the most important member who will say, there has been sufficient positive data since mid-december. it is survey-based data. u.k.ggests the way -- economy has picked up since the divisive election annulled. that will be enough for them to hold their fire and give the problem to the new bank of england governor. fire, willhey hold we see a more severe repricing in the bond market than in cable which has remained resilient? simon: i wouldn't expect a big movement in gilt markets.
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there is still a fiscal event in q1 for investors to look out for. that is the budget on the 11th of march. in terms of the long-term issuance pipeline, and also the long-term inflationary pipeline, government is going to be a big part of the story over the next few years. guilt investors will want to see that information and it won't necessarily change their path. you talk about fiscal watches. they say it might be less than you saw in 2019. simon: nonsense. i would not rate those. it is already legislated forward in 2020. real terms government spending, contracts,alaries, filling potholes on u.k. roads,
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is going up by 4.1%. that is the fastest rate in 15 years. certainly in accessible. in terms of the question over what impact that has on growth, that will depend on the multiplier. different analysts will see it differently. i see government spending in as creative for u.k. growth. nejra: what does all of this mean for the pound? simon: it's a really good question. it has been asked most regularly on our recent roadshow. most people expected the pound to kick on further. skepticismre is among investors on the pound whether this survey-based pickup , which we have seen across a broad range of sectors, will translate into real economic data. we won't know that until later on. u.k. growth rate is flat at the moment.
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officials will have to look at the hard data before taking sterling higher than here. is not thatard data effusive. i'm digging around for the rubbish note that talked about fiscal largesse versus last year. i look a strong response. make of this what you will. simon: i'd so that. -- sell that. nejra: staying with us for the rest of the hour. let's get baxter earning bash -- back to earnings. now is christian liga , president and ceo of the company to discuss their fourth year -- for your earnings. is aash flow guidance decline in 2020 versus 2019. anding through the report
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trying to find an explanation for this, can you elaborate on why that cash flow guidance has declined? christian: thank you very much. good morning. we have an excellent 17% growth in 2019. now 2020, we are guiding slightly below. we have set for a long time that we have been without paying ands in several countries they are now expiring. that's a very sensible course. dones also -- also tremendous work in working capital. 6 billion in this company now over the last few years. that will be a journey where we will be able to create more working capital efficiency but at a lower level going forward. that is two main reasons going forward. manus: good morning to you. it's good to see you. manus in dubai. one of the criticisms leveled
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against the business last year was that you were slow on terms of cost cuts amid the domestic unit. can you update the market on where you are in your cusk -- cost-cutting program? christian: i can understand the worry. we were very clear in the beginning of the year that we will be -- it will be a journey we take during the year. we will step up in the second half. we have that momentum going into 2020. we promised a decline in the net and 3% 2% on the group in sweden. we cannot 4% in sweden and 2% in group. from a momentum that we now bring into the next year. primarily around efficiency. we have put six countries together when it comes to ip and network organizations. instead of having six teams in six countries doing updates on estimates or something, we have
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one team doing it for everyone. that is a simple example of how we can bring efficiency. also moved some of our resources to lithuania, not to an external part. tomorrow business. we did it in a lower cost country. nejra: how aggressively will capital spending in 2020 focus on 5g? is it more of a story for 2021? we saw in 2019, slowly, we continue to see a need to invest in 5g. in finland, we have 5g offerings out now. we will not push it. we will not be trying to take a position where that will eat into our capital too fast. the consumer market is still not in need of 5g. on the other hand, the b2b businesses requiring it more and more. we have good examples of good
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customer experiences last year where we have installed network and solutions for them and come in nation with iot and 5g. be a not going to fast-growing capex. manus: what about the deals? the transformation to end all transformations and content. can you make 600 million swedish krona in synergies? do you think you can eke out more than that? i don't want to promise more than that. i want to promise that we will take this wonderful piece of diamond and make sure that it is available even for more swedish and finnish and nordic the worse. -- viewers. it is important to remember that the landscape, the end-to-end value chain of tv media is changing.
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we are just in the beginning of the journey. external frome sweden and finland companies coming in like netflix and others. local companies will be important. it's important that everyone can see, it is free for everyone. we will fight for that. we will also drive that journey and make it something very nice for our viewers. that will contribute a lot. customy one, we have operations department which is huge. we have a lot of shops. we have our own digital channels we week and start to filter this convergedke good offers to our customers. without compromising on price but trying to actually bring more service and value. that is exactly what we are doing. it will take some time. it's a journey we know is
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important for us to adapt to. the chain is changing. consumers want to view tv and a differently in the future. nejra: what are your thoughts on the u.k. allowing huawei into part of its 5g network? i don't have a specific comment on u.k.. we like many suppliers on the network side. today in certain parts of our network. they are an important partner in norway for the next four years. we follow the regulations properly and we follow and try to participate in the evolution. i hope we have five suppliers in five years time instead of three today. that's what i'm trying to work for. maybe companies like samsung or others, and start to take the fight. nejra: great to have you with us. thank you so much.
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nejra: this is bloomberg daybreak: europe. let's continue our conversation about huawei. the eu was publishing plans on mitigating security risks from member states today. this is according to the fc. joining us now on the phone is the executive vice president of huawei u.k.. inc. you for joining us. the key piece of news is that you are allowed into the fifth generation in the u.k. but there's going to be a limit on what you can do to 35% of the market. is this a victory for huawei,
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this ruling in the u.k.? how do you look at it? jeremy: huawei is reassured by the u.k. government cooperation to continue to supply 5g into the u.k.. months. has taken some to make this decision. it has done a very detailed analysis and got into the evidence. it came out with the conclusion that we are a lot of brought that provide -- to provide the radio access network for the u.k.. that is what we were expecting. 35% figure that manus was quoting is a cap. it could decline at some point. in that event, what would huawei 's strategy in the u.k. be? jeremy: the first thing to say about the cap is that using the government's own figures, we are
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estimating that we have 35% of the current 4g market. sayave heard commentators that that cap could be reduced. we have had no indication from the government that that is something that they want to do. on the contrary, we understand that they want to keep a diverse supply chain in the u.k. and are looking to increase the number of competitors, not decrease the number of competitors. manus: what does that include -- about u.s.hat mean players in this market, on your margins and your revenue? what do you earn in the u.k. at the moment? what pressure will come to bear with increased competition? jeremy: the u.k. market represents about 4% of our total turnover, probably slightly less. it reputational he has more
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impact than that. view,n economic point of we don't really see a huge change. share is, 35% market bigger than tesco has in the u.k.. satisfied with a 35% market penetration for the u.k.. we are not really expecting it to have any significant impact on our business. but we do welcome the decision. we welcome the approach the u.k. has taken to including us in the 5g network here in the u.k.. have been cap we talking about may mean that phone carriers will have to reject their 5g plants to actually comply. what conversations are you having with these carriers right now? jeremy: the news came out
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yesterday. it wasn't totally unexpected. we have not had a detailed discussion with our customers about what market share we have and what adjustments will be made to that market share. and fiber to the home, the two areas subject to the market regulation and cap, we are very much in the early stage of rollout for both of those products. into fiber than 10% to the home and in the very early stages of the rollout for 5g. made in thent to be remaining 90% rollout. we have not seen anything significant in that. sorry. wonder, to what extent
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is this a hollow victory for you? you said, you are happy with 35% market share. in essence, nicky morgan says you will be excluded from critical national infrastructure. that has been allowed into the being allowed into the play room but not allowed to play with the expensive toys. jeremy: different countries have different models. in some countries, we provide the core. in some countries, we provide the ran and the core. in the u.k., we have not targeted the 5g core. 5g economics of providing from a revenue point of view, the vast majority is in the radio access network, not in the core. is perhaps 20% of the total revenues of it.
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it's a relatively small proportion of the overall network. thank you for giving us your time this morning. latestthompson, the very on the news in the u.k.. let's stay with the theme and get to maria tadeo. good to see you. what can we expect from the eu side. 'sll they be watching the u.k. moment of genuflection? the european commission will tell member states that it should be in a position to restrict or consider banning 5g suppliers if they are deemed to be too risky. it's interesting that the document we will get later today does not really mention china. it does not really mention huawei. there is no specific reference. there is a very interesting line in which the commission says all member states should look at the democratic process and the tech
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and the home supplier. you could look at that as being a reference to china. it's interesting that there's no obvious mention to the country or huawei. europeans are hoping the language is vague enough that it actually keeps folks happy because they feel they are in the midst of a cold war, caught between the two of them. whatever decision they make, there are serious repercussions either way. eu willstand that the be careful but there's no or anye ban of huawei chinese technology for the european union. nejra: thank you so much. coming up, we will hear from the eu executive vice president for the digital age. you can see that interview at 12:30 london time. this is bloomberg. ♪
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with us. gold etf hitting a seven-year high. it is not just about coronavirus. do you want to buy gold jeremy: i'd -- gold? jeremy: i do. we had a note out this week on the gold market. said at the top of the show that we didn't have the data at the moment. you wanted to hedge that risk given that it might be much more significant than the market is currently pricing. gold is that asset. the other key investment element of gold is central bank buying. there's a lot of focus on the u.s. treasury on foreign-exchange holdings. if you want to match up your debt liability with an asset that doesn't attract the focus of steve mnuchin, a dollar-denominated one like gold feels like the asset class. you are seeing that and a lot of buying. manus: there you go. physical assets in gold are at a
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