airlines have already stopped direct flights from china. we pulled that down. we will comment on the numbers we are seeing. we are seeing a significant number of people this just helps us focus our efforts. when we are dealing with unknowns around incubation period, the speed of transmission, unknowns about asymptomatic transmission. that we take appropriate steps to focus our resources. the bread and butter of public health is identifying people who might of the disease, diagnose, teresa, treat, contact -- contact trace.

corentin forory people coming in, will that be home corentin or in -- quarantine or an institutional setting? >> that would be home. they would be funneled, screened appropriately, and asked to self isolate at home. that was the epicenter, with such immediate transmission, we think that corentin up to 14 days is appropriate. selected specific

quarantine centers? >> what does self quarantine look like? you described this as an incremental step. message tor americans who are feeling really alarmed. you do say the risk is low but then they see this action being taken. some people might be freaked out by that. >> i hope not. i hope people see that the government is taking steps to protect them. these are preventive steps. the risk of transmit ability is low. we are trying to avoid those risks as we can. let me see if he kentucky little bit about -- we do this type of corentin and self isolation

work. working very closely with our state and local health partners just as we do with emergency response. serve as a backup in expertise but the state and local facilities are the backbone of our public health infrastructure. >> you talked a little bit about self isolation. thank you, mr. secretary. clearly, we have stratified the risk groups from the province transmission. those individuals will be ruined -- will be required to have 14 days. thehina, over half of hubei,ed cases are not in

85% gotably 80%, hubei.d from they will be screened at the airport about any evidence of symptoms or risk. a clinical evaluation at the port of entry. they will be allowed to complete their travel back to their home where they then will be monitored by the local health departments in a self-monitoring situation in their own. we did this in the west africa ebola outbreak. 98% of thee, over american public voluntarily accepted the importance of this. we think, and we continue to believe, that the american public will see this as something to their family and

obviously community's benefit. this thater aspect of i think is important. very recently, there was a case of a woman who was in china and came to germany, had a professional interaction with a professional partner. she had no symptoms at the time. she went back to china and got sick. this individual with she had an interaction contracted the coronavirus from a time she had no symptoms. he transmitted it to two of his colleagues. one of the problems with when the virus is transmitted in an asymptomatic way, it puts a terrible burden on the screening process. get transmitted unless you are actively very ill.

virus atcan transmit a a time when you are a symptomatic, that puts that burden on screening. >> my follow-up on that. given that germany data you just people in the 195 corentin right now, are they being tested every day for coronavirus? >> clearly, they are all isolated and will be for the 14 days. we have done virus isolation. developed atest we of the are not sure natural history of how the virus is isolated. we are seeing, in the cases in the hospital, people had detectable virus, then they did not, then three days later they

did. we are using the virus cultures now in these individuals more to help us learn about this virus. asymptomatic carriage is there. we don't know the natural history of how this virus is secreted. so you comfortable that the thousands of people who passed through u.s. screening so far do not have coronavirus? we are going to see additional cases in this country. we have already seen a number of them came in a symptomatic. this is why we have that multilayer approach and have worked hard to engage the medical community. so far byas done airport screening. four were picked up by astute

doctors. the most recent was cdc doing aggressive contact tracing. >> you referenced airlines earlier. can you or your colleagues give us an update on the administration's thinking about a travel ban, airlines in general being prohibited flying to and from china. >> there is no travel ban. i think many of you following this are aware, of the three u.s. carriers flying between u.s. and china, they are taking down all of their passenger flights. they announced that before any action. we are working closely with our counterparts, our chinese aviation counterparts, and we will be working going forward on both the u.s. and chinese passenger lines about their flight plans going forward next

involuntary measures the airline has taken so far? is an evolving situation but at the moment, no. fx can you talk a little bit about what we are seeing on air-traffic numbers? off.will started in terms of passengers traveling between the u.s. and china come over the course of the last couple of weeks, the passengers loading in the u.s. to fly to china have dropped to almost none. passengers continue to have a high load factor, passengers coming from china to the united states. the passenger of capability. we have been seeing over the course of the past week to 10 days, a significant decrease in the amount of passengers going

between the united states and china. the department of homeland security does an excellent job tracking those numbers day-to-day. have locked chinese wuhan and hubei province. that was eight days ago. china travel to the united states as of yesterday dropped by close to 20%. this is with the sort of market response that joel referenced, and the voluntary actions taken by travelers. awould note that it is not lot of data, but over the past five days, the number of american citizens traveling from china back to the united states has been rising. even though the total number is going down, it does look to us

initially like americans, at least some of them, are returning back home. >> how confident are you in the accuracy of these tests. if somebody is testing negative and they later test positive, can you have confidence? >> this is one of the fundamental bases for why this decision was made. if we had an absolutely accurate test that was very sensitive and specific, then we could test people and say we are good to go. i want to get back to the broad concept about the unknowns. we do not know the accuracy of this test. yourould have virus in nasal secretions, or you could not and still be infected. it is not like it is a horrible test but it is not a test that

is absolute. when you are talking about hiv, if a person has hiv and i draw their blood, i can tell you 100% whether they have hiv or not. that is not even near where we are with this. gradualng about a approach, what measures do you have sort of in the toolkit if this gets worse? ask the doctor to talk a little bit about our approach. the risk in the united states is quite low for any individual. our job is to work to keep it that way. we have public health tools that we use. constantly in the event of larger scale outbreaks, and that is what we will rely on to see thosetinue

in the united states. >> thank you. my role in this is really precautionary at this stage. everything done to this point has been incremental, proportionate, and precautionary. that shouldo ensure this virus continue to expand. domestically, we are working with private sector health care preparedness, we are working specifically around supply-chain resilience. we are also working actively colleaguesd our dod and the private industry to develop better diagnostics, possible therapeutics, as well as vaccines. we are really taking a very cautious but deliberate and methodical approach to ensure that, come what may, we are paired. romaine: you were just listening

to u.s. health officials giving an update on some relatively unusual measures being taken by the u.s. to control the spread. i am romaine bostick here with scarlet fu and joe weisenthal. interesting press conference. this coming on a day with major selloff as anxiety about the virus really gathering steam. they continue to reiterate the message that the threat to any given individual is below. you can tell by the sort of approach how seriously they are taking this. some of the measures include mandatory corentin for u.s. citizens who have been in the province. ,imitations on anyone else certain people, much tighter restrictions. some pretty drastic measures starting to be taken to limit the spread of this virus further. there --u -- scarlet:

the measures do not take effect so -- currently, the risk toward the american public is low. stocks came you saw off their lows. the still the worst day for s&p 500 since october. with more, investment strategy senior director brian lovett, as well as bloomberg news cross asset reporter sarah ponczek. reallyly, investor angst picking up over this. how should investors in your view be thinking about the risk that this poses to the economy and therefore fundamentals and markets overall? >> everyone should be thinking about it in terms of their time horizon.

if you were to ask me, are we ,till in a secular bull market i would say yes. i do not believe this is what ends cycles. historically, these type of diseases have not been what and cycles. you have to ask yourself, what is the direction of the economy and what is the policy response? clearly, the direction of the economy in the short-term will be weaker. the 10-year is already at 150. perhaps the time, we are probably creeping away from that and we start to get some better news and some ability to make some progress on this. scarlet: we are accustomed to seeing people by the depths. today, the price action shows orderly decline all the way until the last 15 minutes of trade.

people that you talk to think that it will set the tone for the open on monday and the outlook for the week? sarah: the idea that chinese markets have now been closed for over a week. they do come back online as of monday. see aexpected we will catch-up trade to the downside. it is possible that could weigh on u.s. futures, u.s. markets the next day when we are coming back from overnight and seeing a heavy day of selling. we did not see anyone stepping in to buy the dip. today, crosslumes, u.s. exchanges, more than 9 billion shares traded hands, the most of any day this year, any day since august, by far.

seeing a pullback when we were dealing with more tariffs going into place. romaine: we are also looking to see how -- see what response we get out of chinese policymakers. when you think about the support that governments can give, whether it is chinese authorities were the fed and the u.s., do we think we have enough capacity to provide enough financial or monetary support to keep markets from doing anything? brian: you want to ask yourself, what is the direction the economy is heading, but then what is the policy response? if you think we are decelerating meaningfully and policy will push us into that. if you think policymakers will be more supportive, that gets us back to a more supportive environment which would lead you to be less. the federal reserve, any time have seen the yield curve

flattened or conditions tightening, which they really haven't yet, but the yield curve is flattening. ability to respond. chinese policymakers, fixed income -- fixed asset investment, i think both stand ready. joe: we thought that right now earnings season will be dominating the discussion. this is the top story and this is starting to dominate earnings season as well. it has come upon an overwhelming number of calls. sarah: starbucks, closing half their stores in china. mcdonald's closing stores. expectede a wider than forecast going forward because they were not sure how this would affect them. while earnings have been fine for the fourth quarter, that is not the issue here. china pmi numbers overnight coming in strong. data we get now do not yet

respect what is coming through with the coronavirus. scarlet: that goes to help big cap companies are so exposed to china overall. the vix got below 20 in trading today. interestingly, this selloff and what have we learned about volatility as an asset class since then? it always seems to arise with political or economic uncertainty. we go through these long periods. growth, the fed not doing much of anything. then it is when we either try to make a policy adjustment or the economic uncertainty arises. it is concerned about a deceleration or economic activity, and volatility is back with us. through 2018.988

that was tumultuous. crisis, 2008 financial we had sars, we had h1n1, bird flu. over that period, the stock market returned 7.5% per year. $400,000.you had i think investors need to understand that there is a deceleration at play. our policymakers on the monte -- on the monetary side and service side, they are at work with this. i think volatility will become subdued and investors will look back at this as another bout of volatility and that we will emerge from this. romaine: the selloff was relatively contained. we want to thank investment strategy senior director brian levitt, and bloomberg news cross asset reporter sarah ponczek.

from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

scarlet: the u.s. declaring a public health emergency in response to the coronavirus outbreak in china. we have seen officials pose a corentin of u.s. citizens. the province at the center of the outbreak. also denying entry to some foreigners displaying symptoms. we want to bring in the senior international economist at ned davis research group thank you for joining us. your thoughts on the measures being taken by the u.s.. does it change any of your assumptions about economic growth either in china or the u.s.? we still kind of keep our

main scenario. we put a study out recently that shows whenever there are major global health emergencies announced, it is usually a sign that it is sort of late in the game and a lot of the bad news has already been priced into markets. for the most part, it does not change our outlook. i am glad measures are being taken because it might contain the crisis and keep it from accelerating. joe: the comparison people reach for his sars. however, china is a much bigger economy than it was in early 2000's. does that make it sort of find useful really examples that can tell us what we might expect from here? >> you can look at a lot of

history. notike to say, history does always repeat itself, but it does rhyme. there are some pros as to why this time is potentially different compared to sars. the chinese government was much quicker to react to the crisis. there has also been some recent talk that the chinese will engage in fiscal stimulus. at the same time, as you mentioned, the chinese economy is significantly bigger. in 2003, it was only about 4% of global gdp. today, it is about 17%. the other big concern we have as well, if you look at the data in 2003, the services sector was hit pretty hard. because of the crisis outbreak began during the lunar new year, services now encompass a larger

share of the chinese economy. romaine: in addition to the hard data, talk to us about sentiment in general. you have a lot of flight restrictions. there is a perception among the general public that it might not be safe to go to china or even interact with someone who has been in china. >> i am not a health expert, so really we don't know up to this point. we are still very early on in the crisis if we are able to withstand or reduce the epidemic. yes, the damage will not be quite as big. if it is extended, then the damage will be much larger. the data i will be watching, i am definitely interested in the pmi data. we saw some numbers come out this morning but a lot of the survey was done for the crisis. joe: thank you for joining us.

this is bloomberg. ♪ whether you're out here on lte

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reporting, have been the u.s. declared a public health emergency in response to the corona outbreak in china, ordering as much as a 14 day corentin for citizens returning from the province at the center of the outbreak, and delaying entry to some foreigners displaying symptoms. to the u.s. from china will be restricted to seven airport. >> first, i want to emphasize that this is a serious health

situation in china. but i want to emphasize that the risk to the american public currently is low. our goal is to do all we can do to keep it that way. recognize the to concern that the american public may have. and i want to reiterate what i just said. currently, the risks to the american public is low. in china death toll from the coronavirus is 213. president trump today canceled and obama era prohibition on the use of antipersonnel landmines outside of the korean peninsula. defense secretary mark esper's says that u.s. military commanders should be allowed to use landmines to protect american forces. are anink landmines important tool that our forces need to have available in order

to ensure mission success and reduce risk to forces. do, said, and everything we we also want to make sure these instruments also take into account the safety of deployment and the safety to civilians and others after a conflict. mark: secretary esper added, "at the end of the day, we want to make sure we have all the tools in our toolkit that are legally available and protected to ensure our success and ensure the safety of all soldiers." the impeachment trial will and without the input of any witnesses. senators lisa murkowski of nebraska and lamar alexander of tennessee have said they will vote against witnesses. the question, when will the nd?al e

republicans want to end before the state of the union address on tuesday. in a symbolic move, the european union's blue flag has been taken down from the u.k.'s permanent and brussels. the u.k. is leaving the eu this evening, becoming the first of block'sation -- the eu 27 nations to do so. day onnews 24 hours a air and at quick take by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. romaine: let's turn to what is going on with the coronavirus. we heard a little bit earlier today from u.s. health officials taking measures to corentin certain travelers and restrict certain flights into the u.s..

joining us now is drew armstrong. one thing they talked about was this idea of sort of asymptomatic transition -- transmission. that is one of the reasons they were saying this would be necessary. >> one of the challenges with screening passengers and finding ways to stop cases at the border, is people have tended to be --t mild conditions or or maybe asymptomatic. things you can normally do, scan a temperature, though sort of things, may not work. we also know the virus has a long incubation period. you have to watch people when they get into the country and potentially isolate them. joe: how unusual is this in terms of the corentin -- in terms of the quarantine we are

seeing. can you think of any comparable response? >> there is not a tremendous amount of president for this. in the ebola outbreaks, when you had ebola patients over there was no question they would be in the hospital. those people got very sick very fast. i think the large -- the last large-scale mandatory corentin was over smallpox in the 1960's. when we have been dealing with you are always monitoring and checking on patients. i think what is unusual is the kind of border control. scarlet: you mentioned the long incubation period, and the fact that the symptoms are so similar

to a cold or flu. a lot of people are out sick because it is february -- well, almost february. i like the fact that the doctor confronted the question of what makes this different from the flu. an incredibly interesting point. we have just seen numbers today that show there is a second wave of flu coming. the way this tends to work sometimes in the public, if you get sick and have symptoms that sound a lot like the things you have been hearing about constantly, you may go to your doctor and say, i think i have coronavirus. it also runs the risk of inundating the health system, starting off new fears with people. there will be a lot of this type of question. the good news, a lot of the practice, wash your hands, cover our mouth, use puerile -- use

purell. it is the same whether it is the coronavirus, which is quite rare, or the flu. joe: after more than three years, brexit finally arrives, setting the stage for months. joining us with the latest, heather conley, senior vice president for europe, eurasia, and the arctic. thank you for joining us. brexit is finally here. eu. actually leaving the there are still questions about the future relationship. the thorniest aspects of the upcoming negotiations, signs where the

two might fight the hardest. >> this is the first time the european union in its history has contracted, and it is losing a very important member. we really don't know what the future holds. we anticipate that u.k. prime minister boris johnson will give a major speech in the coming week or so that will outline the u.k.'s negotiating position. we know probably at the end of february, the european union will release its mandate for those negotiations. really, the big question, how much will the united kingdom diverge from european union standards and regulations. certainly, officials have been speaking of significant divergence. they are telling british companies to be prepared. but, we are not going to know

until we start seeing it. the biggest probably fight between the u.k. and eu will be fisheries. we will see if the u.k. financial services will receive from the eu equivalency, meaning passports back and forth. i am also looking for data protection to see if the eu provides the u.k. with adequacy so we can allow data to transfer. so lots of issues. scarlet: a lot on the agenda. one thing that has been made clear, there is a large gap between what the u.k. says it wants and what it initially agreed to. ask that has been really the big challenge. so much robust rhetoric and at the end of the day, they have to make a choice. this is where, going back to the european commission president,

her first visit to london earlier this month, she said with choice comes consequences. the u.k. will have to choose. the they are saying is, time is really the critical factor. we basically have 10 months, maybe not even that, nine months for the u.k. and eu to reach some agreements. they will probably focus on key sectors like aviation. i mentioned fisheries. that is probably about the most they will be able to do, leaving so much to be negotiated later on. don't forget, they want to negotiate a free trade agreement with the united states. rhetoric and reality are about to meet with the u.k.'s decision-making. romaine: one of our columnists

talked about the idea that boris johnson is looking to bury the word brexit and move on with something more unifying. he still has to deal with scotland, which does not seem like it is going to back down on some of its positioning, how does he navigate that? >> you are right. mr. johnson would like to put brexit behind him. he is ready to move on. what he would like to do is really get down to the business of realigning the u.k. politically. in theraordinary victory december 12 general election was going into long-held labor territory in the midlands and the north. his entire message is not brexit, it is leveling up. , the investing in schools national health service. there are neglected communities who all voted for brexit who for the first time voted for the

conservative party. he was to focus on that and really transform the u.k.. the problem is this brexit negotiation will take a lot of the time, the bandwidth of his government. the choices they make will deeply impact that industrial heartland. what he wants to accomplish this year, i am just afraid the world is not going to allow him to do that. he's going to be pulled very strongly between making some choices with the eu, the u.s., and those decisions will transform the u.k. economy. thelet: heather conley from center for strategic and international studies, giving us a lot to think about here. coming up, we are keeping an eye on what is going on in the senate. they are getting ready to hold a vote on the democrats bid to call witnesses. when that vote begins, we will bring you to it. this is bloomberg.

♪

romaine: time for a look at what stories are trending across the bloomberg universe. readers are leading -- readers are reading about the founder, ipo and nasdaq listing for his company's dating apps, including bumble. he said blackstone made him an offer he cannot refuse. they took a steak at the valuation of about $3 billion. andrew sold his stake and stepped away from the business as part of that deal. bloomberg.com has a story on goldman sachs buying an elite boarding school. while it is rare for goldman to underwrite a deal, to capture

low interest rates armed with huge endowment and strong credit. quick take by bloomberg is reporting on peta, which once the world's most famous groundhog, punxsutawney phil, to retire and be replaced by a robot. they say it is a highly stressful appearance for the groundhog. they say, we have the technology tronicte an anime groundhog with ai that could predict the weather. joe: the most consequential day of president trump's impeachment trial is underway. we are awaiting the witness vote in the senate. joining us, kevin cirilli, bloomberg's chief washington correspondent. like the looks

senators have come out, they are not going to get to 50. what are the questions now in terms of the timing? >> three things. the first thing, we don't know precisely when the acquittal vote will come. it could now likely part in the early part of next week if it is wednesday, that would be after president trump's state of the union address on tuesday night. benjamin thing, wendy is out in des moines and there are a lot of candidates who wish they were there with wendy. this does have significant political ramifications should that acquittal vote be after the iowa caucus. scarlet: how much is this hanging over the heads of the senators who will be voted on in the caucuses, or is this a talking point that gets dismissed because we pretty much

know the outcome of the impeachment trial? outcome know the although, as kevin points out, it seems to be changing every moment. we talked to troy price, the iowa state democratic party chairman, who said the absence of senator candidates is not really weighing on the voters or organizers minds. a lot of people know who they are going to vote for and the undecideds are not making their decision based on whether bernie sanders was there last night or elizabeth warren is there tonight. they are a very well studied group of voters. they know the candidates want to be there. they are not sure it is really going to change the outcome of the caucuses on monday night. between sandwiched these events, we have the state of the union address.

do we have any idea how he will be received? >> optimism is the tone he will be trying to strike. republicans will look to support him. according to a briefing that the white house held earlier today with reporters, he is also going to talk about health care. use thatng to try to as an opportunity to lay out his vision not just for the next calendar year but also for the campaign. what will be fascinating, house speaker nancy pelosi will be seated directly behind him, course next to vice president mike pence. we will get some insight into how speaker pelosi will be feeling about that as well. setting aside impeachment for a second, monday is the caucuses. are there any candidates that, if they do not have a good showing on monday, really have no future path at all.

who needs to put up some decent numbers to be viable to new hampshire and beyond? be athink no chance might little strong but i think pete buttigieg has to do really well. he had one point was the front runner in iowa and he seems to have slipped down a little bit. elizabeth warren has to do well in iowa, then she really has to do well in new hampshire, which is next to the state she represents, massachusetts. if -- if amybuchar klobuchar does not do well in iowa, i really don't see a path for her going forward. there is one other person who needs to win, place, or show, and that is vice president joe biden. scarlet: after the iowa caucuses are complete, the attention goes straight back to washington. what do we know so far about

what kind of tone the president will take in the state of the union? >> he will take an opportunity -- take an optimistic tone. what i am interested in from a policy standpoint is whether or not speaker pelosi and president trump are able to huddle together in the days after the acquittal and forge a path ahead on some other more nuanced policy issues, particularly as it relates to prescription drug prices and to some extent infrastructure. i was talking to someone who is a house staffer that maybe they were a ba not say that. like wendy benjamin said, i am an optimist. scarlet: really appreciate the time. of course, bloomberg will bring you special coverage of the iowa caucus starting at 10:00 p.m. eastern monday. coming up, we are counting down to the kickoff.

how some are making big money of the big game sunday. this is bloomberg. ♪

it is the biggest day of the year for football fans. it is also a big day for gambling. chances are, someone in your office has a pool going for this sunday. las vegas comes up with so-called prop bets that have nothing to do with the pigskin. for instance, when the winners dump kool-aid onto the coach, what color will it be? if you want a long shot, you bet blue. that would pay $750. how long will it take demi lovato to sing the national anthem? the under will pay $200. and, sticking with performers, how many wardrobe changes will jennifer lopez make during halftime show? vegas things over 2.5.

if j. lo goes minimal and the under pays off, your $100 bet will return 220. finally, the over under for presidential tweets that day is 13.5. the over would return you $220. game is toothe big old-school for you, there is an etf that embraces the future of sports. exit is game on. po aims to attract multiplayer tournaments that are streamed live. according to one estimate, e-sports will have average annual revenue growth of almost teen percent between now and 2022. -- there ish but it high demand for this content. the audience is expected to reach 500 million this year.

half in the asia-pacific region. 30 names,roughly nintendo, activision and blizzard. pio -- espo has an expense ratio of 55 basis points. since lodging, it has outperformed the s&p 500 and the communications index. iq every wednesday at 1:00 p.m. eastern time. coming up, chinese financial markets set to reopen monday. joe: president trump delivering his state of the union address on tuesday. romaine: ecb president christine lagarde will speak on thursday. joe: this is bloomberg. ♪ when it comes to using data, everyone is different.

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♪ taylor: i am taylor riggs in san francisco, denver emily chang, and this is "bloomberg technology." the senate is getting set on whether or not to allow new witnesses in the impeachment trial of president trump, but it looks like mcconnell and the gop have the votes they need. plus, frexit is here. supporters are ready to celebrate after years of