>> a very good morning. asia's major markets have just opened for trade. bloomberg'sing from headquarters in new york. welcome to "bloomberg markets: asia." >> our top stories this wednesday, the coronavirus death toll approaches 500. has lots down more than 50 million people. >> the game is up in macau.

casinos and movie theaters shut as authorities attempts to bring the outbreak under control. >> confusion at the caucus. pete buttigieg leads in iowa. democrats say the final numbers will be accurate. japan and south korea coming online on the back of a strong u.s. session. saw in risk on tone we the u.s. trading session is feeding over now as we do see markets open throughout the asia-pacific region. the nikkei and the topix both up by more than one percentage point. look at the yen it, it is modestly higher, but this comes after two days of losses for the end. yesterday the end was the worst-performing currency in the g10, at the same time posting its worst day against the dollar since august. we were dealing with trade war. up neari rebounding, one percentage point after that 1.8% gain we saw yesterday.

australian and new zealand markets climbing as well. lower,tures are a tad but this comes after a gain of one point 5% for the s&p 500. the best day in quite a while, in six months. can closeeavy nasdaq at a record high. that was helped by those returns we are seeing in tesla at the moment. but investors are digesting those iowa caucus results as they do continue to roll in. take a look at the fx and rates picture as well. the aussie dollar is a bit lower today. .his comes after a gain of 0.7% yesterday, rebounding over those decade-long lows. at the same time, you look at the yuan. still a little bit stronger than seven, holding at the moment. 10 year treasury yields holding at 1.6. factor in a seven basis point gain to the upside yesterday.

that was the strongest move higher for 10 year treasury yields since december 12. back to you. haidi: let's get more on our top story. the coronavirus death toll nearing 500 now. the province of the center of the outbreak reporting yet more fatalities. this as larry kudlow says the export boom that was expected due to the phase one trade deal with china will be delayed due to the impact of the virus. our china correspondent selina wang joins us from beijing. it has been two weeks since beijing conducted the lockdown of these major cities. are we starting to get a feel that we will see whether it has been successful in clipping down the amount of transmission? >> no word yet, but it is important to put some context. 23,000 cases now, nearly 500 deaths.

more than 680 people have been cured. despite fears and more cases reported outside of china, the vast majority of the coronavirus cases are still concentrated in i province.e there are more cases there than in all of china put together. the 490 deaths, just about a dozen are outside of hubei and two are outside of china. those numbers probably underestimate the situation inside. chinese and foreign media reporting cases of infection not included in those official numbers, which means hubei accounts for even a higher proportion of deaths and illnesses. that is because of medical supplies finally getting to that region. i also want to touch on the corporate results we got.

saying half its stores closed. it is having a material impact. >> tell us about that. we have seen business they arens including halting production in south korea because they cannot get components from china. it is certainly a challenge. so far you have seen chinese policymakers respond in a pretty measured way. they are adding liquidity, lowering lending rates. to shorehave measures up the economy like government .onds the big challenge the economy is

facing is whether or not china can continue to balance two goals it has been trying to balance. gdp andtrying to double household income over the next 10 years. number two, trying to contain that explosion in debt. what they fear is the chinese economy is not going to be able to bounce back as it did from sars. at that time, china was entering infrastructure investment boom. now they cannot rely on that spending and they are dealing with tariffs. challenge for the chinese economy, the pboc, for corporate inside china as well. keep up-to-date on this developing virus story by running the function vrus go on

your bloomberg. you will find the latest figures from the cdc as well as how specific companies may be exposed. vrus go. asia is picking up on the risk rally we saw in the u.s.. as markets looked to be pricing in a more benign coronavirus impact, it is bringing -- let us bring in our mliv strategist mark greenfield. we have seen the stock rally, treasuries falling, even commodities jumping in going along for the ride. i do wonder if this optimism makes sense given that we still don't have a clear idea when those chinese workers will get back to the factories. >> exactly. earlier, theying supply chain is already being disrupted. we do not know how badly supply chains be impacted. when china really starts to get

back to work, maybe over the coming weeks as people try to put chinese factories back online, so although wall street and particular is taking a positive view that this virus has been contained and the impact is going to be limited, that might be too early. there is a story running on bloomberg today saying china itself will not really now for several weeks how bad this economic disruption is because of course so many people are being kept at home. it will only be for next week onward people get a sense of whether this virus has been contained. new patients are being reported. those numbers could change as more people start to go back to work. who knows how long it would take to get chinese factories back up to work? there are countries in asia still waiting for chinese workers to come back. singapore alone has 30,000 workers, which it anticipates

coming back. they have not yet because of quarantine effects. it is early to say all clear. the supply chain impact really could go on for some time and it might be complacent for u.s. markets to be thinking there is no danger at all. >> part of that from the fact we saw a rebound in chinese markets tuesday. with that surprising given that we know at least part of that came from state insurers? of course, you're going to get long-term investors such as major insurance companies who always look at the long-term value in the markets. after a 10% or so decline, at one stage on monday, the u.s. economy highs we saw in january, chinese industries were 13% lower. if you are a long-term investor, that's the kind of number you should probably be targeting to

put money to work. that might not be representative of the entire investing space across china. there may be more people who are more reluctant and they are going to sit on the sidelines a little longer. but that does not necessarily give us the full picture of whether investors are really happy with the valuation they see in china stocks just yet. lot, makingdoing a liquidity plentiful. they have reduced rates. conditions from the central bank are certainly helpful. a number of chinese investors are waiting to see what happens with the supply chain risks. valuations are one thing. china will look more favorable compared to the rest of the world, but that does not mean it is going to be an easy situation. they want to see more data. a lot of that will be before the virus impact. it will only be the next few weeks we see how serious a drag

on the chinese economy. we may need to see you word from beijing on what they expect for the gdp consequences in the first quarter. it is still a lot of data we need to see before we can get a real start on how bad china has been hit by this virus outbreak. much for that. mark cranfield. let's look at the impact of the coronavirus on the chinese economy. our next guest is moody's analytics. is the consensus you are seeing being a little bit to sanguine given that there is a lot we don't know? we don't know whether the lockdown mechanism has been effective. everyday day we are getting more news as the various aspects of affected.y >> that is a concern. we are looking at the impact of the virus so far on china and

broader asia. from 6.1% now to a baseline being the expectation china will grow 5.4% this year. a significant downward revision based on the fact consumption services right now are feeling the particular brunt of the containment efforts in particular from the virus. we are also going to see the knock on effects of the flow from disruption to supply chains, manufacturing, exports as well. ripple effect through the economy. the pboc there in the kitchen sink when it comes to flooding liquidity? we know they will keep doing that by lowering various rate mechanisms. of the containment period, you probably see fiscal spending increase, bond issuance, does that create

eventually a drag on the economy? the past you get more -- you get less bang for your buck as time goes on. have seen with epidemics when the virus is contained, for example what happened after the sars outbreak when there was no longer further cases being diagnosed, it was a tourism,pullback in consumption, with a rebound. that will offset this less stimulatory measures the government will be implement and. -- implementing. they would notd hesitate to act if needed given the impact of the coronavirus. the rhetoric seemed to shift from what he said last month, that it wasn't too early to tell. the boj does not have that much policy space to do more. what is the case for the rest of the central banks across asia if they need to act, can they?

varying degrees of monetary space within asia, but what we are seeing from the bank downsideis that the risk posed from the coronavirus to global growth, it is also the uncertainty. if we don't know how far and wide this is going to continue to spread, ultimately the economic toll will be impacted by the human infection rate and also how long it takes this virus to be contained. we have policy meetings later this week from the bank of thailand, the reserve bank of india, and they are both expected to hold steady. down the line, if we do see starting toh is taper off, we will see central banks like in australia and new

zealand act further to shore up domestic demand and insulate from downside risks of this. -- is expected to cut though. >> that's right. it is a bit of an outlier. inflation has come down quite a bit recently, so they have that flexibility to support domestic demand right now. withank you for joining us insights on economies around asia. let's now get the first word news. >> opec and its independent allies have spoken to china about the coronavirus and its impact on demand for energy. the cartel met for emergency talks in vienna with a senior chinese diplomat invited. slumped on signs consumption has dropped by 20% in china.

president trump is mulling a plan to withdraw from a global for 1.7 trillion dollars in government contracts. they are circulated a draft executive order that would trigger a u.s. exit from the wto if the accord is not reformed in line with american demands. the agreement is designed to make public purchasing more transparent. with new rules that would clear the way for the u.s. to apply punitive new tariffs on goods from countries deemed to be undervaluing their currencies. the commerce department says the rules will add muscle to u.s. complaints about manipulation that targeted countries like china and japan. the move is seen as turning the fx markets into potential trade war battlegrounds. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in .ore than 120 countries

this is bloomberg. ahead, macau's casinos and cinemas take a hit as they are ordered to close to reduce the risk of a virus spreading. >> next, the state of u.s. politics. pete buttigieg in the lead as iowa makes its way out of its e.ucus model and -- muddl ♪

haidi: this is "bloomberg markets." shery: president trump is set to deliver his estate of the union address in just a couple of hours. his address comes as initial results from iowa put pete buttigieg in the lead in the democratic nomination. joining us from capitol hill is your publican congressman andy barr of kentucky. thank you for joining us.

let me start with chaos in iowa. i wonder how this is going to play to president trump's chances as well as the hands of your party. disaster in terms of the democratic party's inability to conduct a basic election or count the votes and the returns. we do see the far-left candidates coming out in the lead with bernie sanders and pete buttigieg looking like they will ultimately prevail. that's bad news for the democratic party because this agenda of socialism is far outside of the mainstream. >> when it comes to the impeachment trial, we are expecting an acquittal tomorrow. it will be a strong taper president trump who of course also has the state of the union tonight. i wonder if the gop is at all thinking about the optics of the trial when you have not allowed any witnesses.

we are seeing public opinion shift. >> well i will tell you what. it's going to be quite the contrast with the president tonight talking about the great american comeback, the blue-collar worker boom, the lowest on up limit in 50 years, two and a half million americans being lifted out of poverty because of this progrowth agenda of tax cuts, deregulation, greater access to the capital markets and more access to credit and american energy dominance. newly renegotiated rebalance trade agreements. this is producing a blue-collar boom for this country. the president tonight is going fore laying out his vision relentless optimism and prosperity, upward mobility for the american people. what a contrast to what the message is from the democrats. pessimism, criticism, impeachment. really not with the american people want to be focused on right now. , iterms of the actual trial

does not make sense that house democrats are complaining there are no witnesses in the senate when they chose to proceed without these witnesses in the house and in fact denied the president the ability to have due process during -- bring his own witnesses and even denied republicans the ability to cross-examine witnesses during the house proceeding. the american people are ready to put this behind them and move forward with what matters to them, which is their own pocketbooks. >> some of the polling's are seeing public sentiment has shifted at a crucial time, a crucial year for president trump. do you believe due process has been followed in this impeachment process? theretainly in the senate has been due process because both sides have been able to litigate and make their case. the house was an uneven process where the president was not even allowed to -- allowed council

presents. you had secret depositions. hearings where republican members of congress were denied the ability to cross-examine witnesses, the president was denied the ability to present witnesses. at least now in the senate you had the president's counsel presence and they were able to make their case. they made their case not only to the senate, but the american people as well. the president did nothing wrong. thectually carried out foreign policy of the united states with ukraine. no less than five times in the last six years, congress on a bipartisan basis not only authorized the president to do what he did in terms of withholding aid to the ukraine, but actually mandated. congress required the president to seek assurances from the government of ukraine that ukraine was countering corruption within that country. the president was doing his job and doing it well and i think that is why the president ultimately has been acquitted and exonerated in this case.

coronaviruseen the really sent a shudder through the economies not just of china, but regionally. more tohe fed be doing protect the economy there? >> fed policy is pretty stable right now. interest rates are low. the most important thing with the fed is they are pursuing a very predictable stable monetary policy. i don't think we need lower interest rates right now. i don't think we need any more distortionary monastery policy -- monetary policy. what we need is a fiscal policy that is progrowth. that is why you see this blue-collar worker boom. the lowest income earning americans or the americans that are seeing the fastest gains in terms of real wage growth. we are seeing the fastest wage growth in america, especially at that low income level. the fastest wage growth in over

a decade since before the recession, before the financial crisis, so the american people are clearly better off when free enterprise is unleashed and when you have these progrowth policies and it is ironic that the leaning -- the leading contenders for the democratic nomination are proposing not only to rollback those policies, but are embracing socialism, which is the road to misery. that is not with the american people want. why in the world with a make a change when their economic prospects are so much better today? >> thank you for your time. congressman andy barr of kentucky. we should mention michael bloomberg is also seeking the democratic nomination for president. he is the founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, the parent company of bloomberg news. stay with bloomberg for special coverage of president trump's state of the union address. that kicks off at 9:00 p.m. in new york. ♪

x south korea saying they have an additional two cases of coronavirus in the country. plenty more to come.

>> this is bloomberg markets: asia. >> we are getting the latest reading out of hong kong. actually aat 46.8, real pickup from the previous month, but still in contractionary territory. coming under a lot of pressure. we have had the ongoing processes now, the exposure to coronavirus. retail sales data, seeing that slide for the 11th straight month. singapore,ers from also a pickup from 51 in the

month of january. mildly positive. what are you seeing? >> for japan, a weakening in the pmi numbers. 51.l january pmi at still in expansionary territory, but still down from 52.1. when it comes to the composite numbers, also weakening 50.1 instead of the 51 we registered in the per luminary number. -- preliminary number. this after we saw contraction in the services number for the past three months and we have seen the first rebound, but still the rebound much smaller than anticipated. we have seen that during the sars outbreak 17 years ago, hospitality was one of the hardest hit sectors. we are seeing services sector weakening for the final reading of the month of january. >> let's get a check of the markets. >> stocks are holding onto their gains for now. the nikkei and the topix up 1%

or so. tech is leading the gains. the kospi higher as well. actually seeing its strongest to day streak all the way back to early december. switch up the boarding take a look at the commodities complex. considering the pounding we have seen as coronavirus has spread, we are seeing a modest tone today. --nt crude still below $50 $54 a barrel. wti seeing a rebound. still below that line of $50 a barrel. copper gaining for a second straight day after a record losing streak of 13 days. gold interestingly relatively flat, but modestly to the upside. i want to take a longer-term look at wti crude oil. 11 trading days have been to the downside, falling below that $50 a barrel level and very

oversold. if you look at the 14 day rsi, we are 18. 30 is that line in the sand. we are way past that. at the lowest level in over a year. some traders are saying since we have broken that $50 a barrel level, we may be headed for those 2018 lows. that would be right around $42 and $.50 a barrel, meaning that would apply another loss of 14%. something to consider. back to you. marketset's stay on the and take a better look going into the open in china. david ingles joins us from hong kong. what are you watching today? it was interesting. it makes people very nervous that we saw the quick rebound after the monday selloff. vid: we did attend to get those things though. i was looking at history, talking during the market

a big drop's 2015, similar to what we had monday and then you get a rebound and things become like a roller coaster. all will remain elevated. i think that is virtually a good assumption to have right now. what i do want to mention is because of monday, you saw volumes spike. you had a lot of people taking advantage of the valuations. turnover was about 30% more percentagewise it was the best day for mainland equities going back to july. do we get more liquidity injections in the pboc or do we get a little bit more cyclical factor in the yuan? as another sign they are there to backstop these short-term gyrations in these markets. shery: we are seeing more and more businesses affected by this outbreak. hyundai motors become the first

global automaker to halt production outside of china. what are some of those businesses seeing the brunt of this outbreak? i was planning to go to disneyland in hong kong and now i can't. kidding. but if i wanted to i would not be able to because the park is closed. disney was out with some lines on how this affects their business. you look at what's happening in the casino space. from midnight last night through the next 16 days, i believe your next guest will dissect this for you, everything from casinos, bars, even the churches are closed in macau for the next 16 days. i understand what the business impact is going to be like. are starting to get more tangible numbers to back up these disruptions as well, there

is a note out saying the two-week shutdown in macau could result in a decline of 50% in revenue. that goes up 70% in macau for the rest of this quarter. >> thank you so much. we will be talking about macau shortly, but we are getting the latest lines from west bank saying the coronavirus impact has reduced new zealand's gdp growth forecast. they are now lowering new zealand's fourth-quarter gdp growth forecast to 0.1%. westpac lowering the economic growth numbers for new zealand. now let us go back to macau. virus concern has hit casinos. they are shut for two weeks to contain the outbreak after already confirming at least 10 cases. joining us to discuss this is fitch ratings corporate finance director colin masfield.

this would be the longest ever halt of these casinos being shut down. what does this mean for first-quarter performance? the big question is, will 15 days be enough? will they come back online after that? >> until we know the full extent of the virus and the duration, it's going to be really hard to ascertain with the actual decline in growth is going to be. to put it into perspective, before the outbreak, macau was a market generating $100 million in growth per day. extrapolate that to 15 days. that's about $1.5 billion of growth that is going to be lost. when we look at major casino operators, right now their credit profile is strong enough to withstand a disruption of this nature. they have strong balance sheets. they don't have any near-term meaningful debt maturity. the fact of the nature is with gaming companies and leisure,

events like health scares are perennial risks the sector space. face.tors they end up being transitory in nature. >> macau is so reliance on these casinos for their own economic growth. what happens to those employees of these casinos? to paysinesses be able them and will that he into the profit margins eventually? into the profit margins eventually? >> at the end of the day, whether it is the 80% decline in visitation we saw during chinese new year or the fact they are shutting casinos down fully for the next 15 days, you are going to see a meaningful hit to cash flow for these companies for the first quarter, potentially even longer depending on how long this ultimately lasts.

again, when we ran a number of stress scenarios, they did have enough access -- excess cash on hand and capacity to manage a meaningful hit to cash flow to be able to weather the storm in the near term. out, those keyed numbers over lunar new year, i guess how much extra damage can the official closure actually cost them? >> we think it is going to be on the margin. whether they are down 80% or 100%, this was already going to cause a meaningful impact in the first quarter numbers and potentially longer. again, we think fully closing the casinos after visitation is down 80% is going to be on the margin. the impact was already going to be large before the closures. to thething is, we spoke

she wastar cfo who said optimistic. the people who did not go to chinese new year will go later on in the year. is that what you would expect given that we know chinese tourists and businesses tend to structure vacations around public holidays? that it isxtent short-lived, we do expect there to be a level of pent-up demand. that is what makes forecasting 2020 growth for macau so difficult. we don't know the duration of this. another meaningful variable is going to be how much pent-up demand there is that comes back after the health concern subsides. we do feel that in the long-term term macau is still -- does have long-term growth prospects as a gaming destination and again with health concerns like this for gaming and leisure sectors. it's going to be transitory in nature as well as really temporary. >> we appreciate your time.

aboutmansfield talking macau casinos with this shutdown. >> initial results have finally been announced in the iowa caucus. though the final numbers are not yet available, the first reading frontete buttigieg in with bernie a close second. elizabeth warren is third with joe biden in fourth. the democrats admit issues, but insist the final numbers will be accurate. president trump's expect it to ignore his impeachment trial when he delivers his state of the union address. he will likely take credit for the strong u.s. economy, newly signed trade deals, and the crackdown on immigration. the president plans to deliver what he calls a positive speech to an audience that will likely include as many as five of his potential election rivals. a former goldman sachs banker has been banned from the industry for his alleged

scandalent in the 1mdb in malaysia. the federal reserve says he failed to tell goldman that a businessman who is allegedly the fraud was alsohe involved in 2012 and 2013. he agreed to the fed order without admitting or denying wrongdoing. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. >> next, activist investor david webb joins us from hong kong. he says the city could be facing an international travel ban. ♪

>> hong kong health authorities reporting the city could be at risk from a large breakout of

the coronavirus after three new cases were detected on tuesday were confirmed to be local transmissions. that along with the city's first death from the virus adding pressure on carrie lam to do more to tackle its spread. kong has closed schools and government run facilities. civil servants are working from home. the border with mainland china has been partially closed. many are calling for complete closure with health care workers threatening a third day of lam does not start today. have restricted flights to china could extend those bans to hong kong. we know that carrie lam has this deadline. workers' arguing there is not much point in doing their jobs

if you see the partial shutdown of the border. what needs to be done by the government now? >> we need to follow what several other countries have done including singapore and a number of countries in asia, saying we cannot allow any visitors. citizens have the constitutional toht -- we will need quarantine them for 14 days to prevent further cases. to -- one country, two systems, we are going to be included in the one country ban as other countries are trying to protect their own citizens. it would serve purposes better if we were to try to be on the outside of this rather than

grouped with the mainland in the situation. >> it has been a pretty harrowing 6, 7 months for hong kong. this whole gateway to mainland china thing has not worked out for a number of reasons. i know you have been heavily critical about capital markets reform, economic governance in hong kong before. what should happen now? is it too late for the city to diversify? situation,olitical the coronavirus is a godsend to to carrie lam. instead she is taking herself in further by refusing to restrict the entry of people from mainland china. a political issue needs to be resolved.

an accountable elected government. to do that they need to reform local legislation without needing beijing's approval, by removing the corporate voting and so-called functional constituencies. also the mechanism for the legislative council. 100 votersnly about in the making sector. similarly for insurance services, financial and numerous other sectors like that, through which beijing controls the system. getting to the 601 out of 1200 votes you need to become chief executive is a matter of pandering to vested interests rather than the hong kong people. that is what needs to change. >> what does this mean for hong kong?

is it too late for an economic makeover for the city, given as you mentioned these limitations imposed by china? >> hong kong has been very dynamic since 1841 when it was first colonized. been oppressedas with a lack of democratic accountability, the process is going to continue. has obviously become very unattractive to host conferences and exhibitions and trade meetings here. with the background of the process going on. of that, coronavirus. i think that's going to pass. , if you look carefully, is that the rate of growth of the caseload has been declining. it was about 20% overnight, new

cases in china. downward.n a trend they may end up with only 6000 is, in6000 deaths, which terms of the overall demographics of china, about four or five hours worth of annual deaths. that's not the main issue. kong, itsd to hong democracy deficit and the need to get rid of the corporate voting and have one worker, one vote. then i think people will be happy with the government they chose because they chose it and that's the way it works. you may not like it. you may want to change it over time, but it becomes a much more dynamic system. that is the part of hong kong's dynamism that is missing. you have the competition in a lot of sectors.

reasonably free markets, but no choice for economic policies. >> beyond the challenges hong kong faces, you are an investor. are there any sectors of the hong kong economy or the markets where you can still find opportunities? >> sure. you have to look at the long-term propositions. they are not going away. the health crisis abates, people will still be coming here from around asia, including mainland china. we don't have any sales or added value tax on our goods. there is a lot of shopping in hong kong. that should improve. various other sectors have been quite heavily hit by the process.

we see transportation and manufacturing hit by the health crisis. notories sing staff are able to travel. that is impacting production at the moment. >> very quickly, when do we see the capital markets in hong kong start to reflect the pessimism we see in the macroeconomy? , when shanghai reopened finally on monday, we had already had a 5% drop in hong kong. before shanghai was closed. china itself has obviously a demographic deficit and people are starting to question their situations like this. does not make the government look good at all. china is going to have to go

through its own reform process to stop centrally planning the economy, to selloff the state-owned enterprises, to liberalize the freedom of speech , to really get to the next level of gdp growth. they are only a quarter of the oecd average. they are going to have to change the way they run the country. >> really appreciate your time. david webb, activist investor and founder of webb-site.com. we will be looking at the challenges and opportunities, talking about the extended impact of the coronavirus at 6:30 a.m. thursday in hong kong, 5:30 p.m. if you are watching in hong kong -- in new york.

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>> china has children the capacity -- has the capacity. >> a lot of policy stimulus. quick they have a lot of letters -- >> they have a lot of levers. >> long-term, it just does not

impact. >> the trade deal, the fed. >> our base case is generally positive. >> even the election getting nearer, it is more certain as to the outcome. it is a transitory effect on the markets. >> this is the worst of it. >> guests are to china's efforts. before we get to the china open, let us take a look at how markets are trading at the moment, we are seeing a return of risk appetite. this after we saw reduced gains in u.s. stocks. causingnavirus is passengers to test positively on that cruise ship.

a look at futures. we are seeing u.s. futures under pressure, this after you sincened the biggest august. commodities, copper gaining ground after two weeks of losses. the offshore yuan holding steady after gaining ground for the first time in five days. china services pmi in the next hour as well. macau is taking no chances on the coronavirus, shutting casinos and movie theaters. .e will discuss the impact >> as we take a look ahead to the state of the union address, this is bloomberg. ♪

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with full results still delayed.