the statement they made today is he has been saying and repeating data dependent, data-dependent. we put words in the fed's mouth. we kind of disappointed ourselves. we try to read their minds and we are not doing a good job of that. they are data dependent. the virus is going to have an impact. that is going to play into a potential rate cut. warye same time, they are of asset valuations. world,u look around the asia is not a good place right now. emerging markets, not a good place. europe, the numbers are terrible. the u.s. is kind of the only place to go. i think they are very much aware of that. scarlet: while vence was speaking, the market closed and we have declines of 0.5% for the nasdaq and s&p, the dow doing

worse, losing almost 1%. we are still looking at gains of 3%. even though we end the week on a down note, we come back in a big way from last friday. be some anxiety going into weekends because we don't know what the headlines are going to be, but this is very different from last friday. scarlet: let's dive deeper into the action. covering the different asset classes, abigail, what are you watching? >> a great week overall. the s&p 500, the best week since june. since we've been tracking the breakout of the coronavirus, it is a different story for the risk assets. declinersve lots of over the last few weeks. crude oil the worst. down 13%. user, the world's largest

of natural resources. that is weighing on crude oil and copper. chinae the csi 300 and down about 6%. the s&p 500 fractionally lower. the big winner, not surprisingly, bonds. the 10 year treasury note up 1.5% at this point. it will be interesting to see whether this dynamic continues into next week. thanks, abigail. from the macro to the micro, a pharmaceutical company believes 2020 will be a strong year. asay, shares were rising they set up expectations for 2020. they come even as its blockbuster inflammation drug faces more competition abroad from cheaper rivals. they posted fourth-quarter sales 44.92 billion dollars.

far, more thanso 3% this year. well i am taking a look at the 10 year guild. against the higher yield. this as the risk off sentiment continues today. , reversinging down the lift up that we saw in yields earlier this week. we are back down to the lowest since monday. we've been talking a lot about who was right. the bond markets and equity markets were telling us different stories. if you look at the yield curve, it does seem like the bond market is right. you have that curve down to about one or two basis points, down from seven yesterday. and you are well off the highs of almost 40 basis points that

we saw before the coronavirus outbreak. the bond market pricing in a little more pessimism. joe: thank you, taylor, and the rest of the markets team. andl with us, quincy crosby vincent cignarella. vincent, i want to hear your the virus headlines and the anxiety of 48 hours without a chance to trade as we get more data. is that a factor potentially behind today? it does factor -- vincent: it does factor in. you can't really trade until new zealand opens up and those market are superthin and super volatile. it is beyond anything you can hedge for. generally speaking, when you

have these events, people do cut back a little bit into the weekend. a lot of the moves are algo driven. virus hits the headline and thing start scattering. as a human being, you don't trade that. ghaisar programming to traded. the bigger picture folks are doing that with human hands. but on a day-to-day basis, it is mostly electronic. saw these monster gains during the week. quincy, do you think the bond market is telling us a different story? quincy: this has been a thread in the market for so long. but you still have the negative interest rates in europe. you still have the japanese trying to push their 10 year to zero. you have money coming into the u.s. treasury market. on whatt a referendum

they think about the u.s. economy. insurance companies, pension funds. allegedlyhina, which slowed down purchases. we know they go through another country and other banks outside of china. it is a place where you can get yields and you are safe. romaine: the signal we are getting from the bond market, there's talk that a lot of the buying is more structural issues. change --ructural should we not be reading too much into the signals? quincy: we had the scare last spring. you have to look at the other data points. if i want to be bearish, i can look at the baltics. but when i look at these other economic data releases, especially the housing market, the job market, how can you suggest that is pointing -- then

i would get worried that a recession may be around the corner. flows are coming in and those push that yield down. why do we have mortgage rates so low? prevents, i want to go back to your day job as the voice of bloomberg. you have to alert our clients when there is news. you will talk about earnings. you will talk about moves in the markets. which headlines get the most feedback? i'm sure you spend more time talking about the coronavirus and political headlines this week then you would have a week ago. vincent: the biggest feedback we get, if we say something on the virus, a tweet which takes a little while to show up, almost immediately, we are getting a

post in here. today, when new york city cleared people that they were checking to see if they had the virus, immediately traders come out of the woodwork. so they really move the market. people are paying attention to that. when the news came out that four out of five people in new york city had been cleared, the s&p took a little bump. joe: we've been talking a lot about the virus. but there's more to the world than just that. what thed to quantify ultimate effects are going to be. what are the other risks? setting that aside, what do you see as the other big risks that people should have on their radar after this incredible run? quincy: i think as we get deeper into the campaign season, you

are going to see the markets focus on that. , awill be which democrat progressive or someone in the middle. and then the question will be, can that person beat president trump. related to the phase one trade. caterpillar, apple, semiconductors. united health care. that will be one of the bellwethers. and then talk about fracking. you will see in the high-yield market, which has a preponderance of those companies , those spreads are going to widen if there is a belief that there is a chance that a progressive can win. scarlet: which asset class do you look to to give us a read on what is going to happen overall? quincy: the credit markets, you have to respect what the credit

markets are telling you. isetimes the equity market having a really good time. it doesn't get the message. wait a minute, maybe i should pay attention to that. i came from global equities. it is a currency. i like to look at the japanese yen. if we start to see the japanese , we will probably start to see gold dissipate. that is a very good leading indicator for any market episode that has investors nervous. scarlet: what is the first pair or security you look at? watch the probably fixed income market and the yields. whichr sneaky headline credit,ust hit on was corporate credit, but low rated

corporate credit. if something happens in the market -- scarlet: our thanks to chief market strategist quincy crosby and voice of the bloomberg audio squawk, vince cignarella. you can hear vince in your terminal. that does it for the closing bell. we will be looking at credit suisse's ousted ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪

romaine: live from bloomberg world headquarters, i'm romaine bostick. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. joe: and i'm joe weisenthal. romaine: u.s. equities halting a four-day rally. joe: but the question is, "what'd you miss?" romaine: starting the new decade on a high note with hiring ramping up and wage gains accelerating. and the federal reserve cites the virus as a new risk to the economic outlook for the u.s. and warns of disruption. and the credit suisse ceo is squeezed out after a scandal cost him the support of the company. u.s. jobs data for january showing signs of a robust labor market with payrolls increasing by 225,000 and the unemployment rate edging up slightly. average hourly earnings gaining

three point 1% year-over-year. bloomberg spoke to larry kudlow, who described the report as a blowout number, and says as many as 6 million jobs could be added to the economy. better jobee opportunities. they see retraining opportunities. they are coming out of the woodwork. the employment rates suggest that if we keep marching up, as i believe we will, you could have as many as 6 million more workers in this country ready to come back to work. joining us for more from .ashington is bill dooley we saw the labor force participation rate, highest level since 2013. i'm curious whether you think that can go higher and whether we might really have substantially more ability for

labor market expansion that economists might have thought. bill: absolutely. one of the things that surprises economists is there is this presumption we seem to have that old-timers are retiring and participation is going to start going down. the employment to population ratio, which is showing you the size of the pool of those who are employable, has really not returned to its historically high numbers. but we have a lot of people who can come back to the labor force. we have very good job opportunities and growing wages. that are the opportunities bring people back into the labor force. bill, can you give us some idea what types of people are coming off the sidelines? bill: one of the more interesting things i found was that those who are over 55 are

coming back in. once they retire, they come back in for part-time work or full-time work. women participation has really caught up. the shortfall that we see among ,omen in the postrecession era women have pretty much caught up. the surprising shortfall is in young age males. one of the things we have to look at is, what are the factors that are keeping men from being workers in the workforce, and the opioid crisis is clearly one candidate. scarlet: interesting. that is something we have to look at. we were speaking with julia coronado earlier and she was saying the wage gains seem to have peaked already. you talk about the new entrants in the labor force. do they have the kind of pricing power that prime age males have? if not, is that why the wage

gains are kind of stuck at these levels? bill: the aggregate wage gains are being held back by one factor, which is productivity. notion amongngoing a lot of economists that the people who are getting jobs now tend to be younger workers, less experienced. they get paid lower wages. but old-timers like me who come back to the labor market would have those skills to command high wages. the other factor which is holding back the wage increase is that we have high wage manufacturing jobs growing at a negative pace right now because manufacturing is shrinking. the leisure and hospitality and lower wage workers, those are the sectors where the jobs are being created. so there's several factors

involved here. the main factor holding back wage increases is the lack of productivity that comes from lack of investment. joe: let's go to the federal reserve. to what degree do you think they are really on the sidelines? if we talk about the labor force participation rate, also we know that powell raised the bar to future rate hikes last october when he said he would like to see realized inflation -- it feels like it could be an incredibly long time before we see another rate hike. bill: you can see from the reaction in the markets that that is exactly the presumption most people are going with. the fed has placed itself on the sidelines. they are not going to act until we see price inflation. right now there's certainly no sign of it in the goods market.

there might be something that seems to be blended in quite well. romaine: let's talk about the global growth picture. some of the options china has from an economic and fiscal standpoint to deal with the potential fallout from the coronavirus. and some of the growth issues that were plaguing it. bill: the global slowdown, a lot of it has to do with china. china is the hub of that manufacturing nexus. but let's not also forget that europe has been in the doldrums for quite a while. we tend to forget how bad europe really is. we think of the strategist recommendations saying we should start investing in european markets. there is a good reason why they are so far behind. having growth exceeded europe in 1% is a miracle.

european growth being slow, being so dependent on china manufacturing, that is combining to make the global economy quite a drag. joe: i want to ask you something about the coronavirus. there's very little inflation in the developed world. no one thinks it is coming back anytime soon. if we got a major supply chain disruption and infrastructure had to be re-proposed for all kinds of things. the kind of thing that could create an inflationary episode? bill: you just hit upon my nightmare scenario, which is startsina's coronavirus to spiral into the supply chain and cause a lockup on the supply chain that hooks together all the economies in the world. not only will you see a spike in prices, but you will start to

see a lack of demand. right now is proposing financial policies to try to make up for demand. they really have to do actual spending. we all say, how could they do more spending? that is like worrying about high cholesterol readings when you have a major heart attack. restore the supply chain or else you will lockup the world economy. scarlet: how far away are we from that scenario? bill: all of the epidemiologists seem to say there's a lot of risk out there and we shouldn't be complacent. the markets are saying it is like a bad cold. that bifurcation is going to start causing problems for the global economy. we will know by the time march rolls around. scarlet: good stuff. bill lee, thank you so much. coming up, a change could be coming.

some firms are not declaring victory after adding a lone female partner. they are thinking about adding another one. i know, right? ♪

scarlet: the number of d.c. firms with two or more female partners doubled last year to 14%. a cultural change may now be underway. joining us now with more is bloomberg's lizette chapman, who covers vc and startups. it sounds like companies that to changereluctant the composition of their partners and employees are not just adding one, but adding two. what accounts for the shift? this has been a change

that has been being pushed for the last two or three years. 2017, 85%t the end of of all venture firms in the united states didn't have a single female partner. right now that number is about 65%. the real significance of the numbers that are just published today is around the fact that there's been a cultural shift where it has become more than just a check the box, one and done type of attitude, where they are hiring two or more. and these aren't small, insignificant firms. these are the top of the industry, some of them, including sequoia capital, andreessen horowitz, and index partners. joe: when a venture capital firm does at a woman, does that

create internally more awareness of the lack of diversity and facilitate more hiring because there's someone there who is aware of the imbalance? lizette: what we know is that there are a lot of deals that get a closer look that might otherwise be overlooked. there is a diversity of viewpoints and backgrounds and networking. it is not just that these women are then promoted to a partner role, which is different than employee. partners have the power to write checks and serve on boards. they are the king or the queen makers of the next round of the big tech titans. scarlet: so what we are seeing is a broadening of that diversity. romaine: we are going to have to leave it there. 50% of the population, 14% of venture capital. coming up, the luxury goods

industry feeling the sting of the coronavirus. this is bloomberg. ♪

i am mark crumpton with bloomberg first word news. alexander of inman, who testified in president trump's impeachment trial, was escorted out of the white house. his lawyer says benjamin was asked to leave first telling the truth. vindman was one of the democrats' most crucial witnesses in their impeachment proceedings. he's a decorated army lt. col. who raised the alarm over the telephones july 25 call with ukraine's leader. china has named two officials to take charge of the response to the coronavirus outbreak as the government attempts to slow the

spread of the illness. a new report in the journal of the american medical association says the infection has been spreading inside a wuhan hospital. there are more than 31,000 cases worldwide, 99% of them in china. more than 630 people have died. it wasn't engine failure that caused a helicopter carrying kobe bryant, his daughter, and seven others to crash last month. to a reportrding today from the national transportation safety board. the helicopter crashed into a mountain outside los angeles on july 26. the ntsb is investigating the accident, including any role that heavy fog played. a final report isn't expected for at least a year. is south african president attending the african union summit in ethiopia.

he took the role of chairman of the 33rd au. offerd he has to practical unions to the continent. au decided years ago that 2020 must be the year. we are going to be working toether with all countries see how fast we can bring peace to many parts of our continent. >> the president added that from south africa's perspective, another key priority must be the empowerment of women and dealing with gender-based violence. global news 24 hours a day powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg.

scarlet: bloomberg has just learned that the u.s. government has ended its emissions probe against automakers. this is breaking news here. the department of justice has dropped its antitrust probe of companies like ford, honda, volkswagen, bmw, when it comes to following california laws with regard to emissions. the doj lawyers according to the new york times told automakers that they concluded the companies did not break any laws. people familiar with the situation say the doj has ended this inquiry. let's move on now to what is going on when it comes to the coronavirus. in china, the outbreak death toll has risen to at least 636. president trump has praised xi jinping. at the same time, the virus has

led to a cruise being detained in new jersey. here with more is jonathan levan. talk to us about what we know so far. what is the latest? sent theirhe cdc people onto this cruise ship in tests of 27nd ran people that they believed had been in china recently. 23 immediately came back negative. four were checked in to an area hospital. at this point, everybody except for those four people were given the green light to get off that ship. casese: we also have seen with cruise ship's in yokohama in japan. how is the industry responding to this and dealing with the optics? jonathan: i had a conversation

with the ceo of royal caribbean. aresense was, they concerned about the cancellations out of china specifically, but what they are really concerned about is how this is going to impact perception at a time when bookings are typically peaking in the cruise industry. so they are very concerned about from antagion effect perception standpoint. as of tuesday, they weren't seeing a lot of that here in the west, but we will see if that changes. joe: our thanks to bloomberg's jonathan levan, breaking down the latest on the cruise industry and the coronavirus. another industry, the coronavirus shedding light on the luxury industry's dependence on chinese spending. joining us with more is mortimer singer. thank you for joining us.

basically every major luxury brand has warned about the impact of the virus. what is the key thing? is it stores in china shutting down, people not traveling in and out of country? what is the clearest way the luxury industry is taking a hit? mortimer: it is twofold. stores have been shut down for weeks. holiday,sion of the one of the biggest travel periods of the year, it is almost like canceling christmas. it is a big hit on the inventory. the mainland chinese traveling outside of china, even to the neighboring vicinity, a huge part of the industry. the chinese are 115 billion of that 350 billion of the luxury industry. romaine: we need to talk about

the luxury industry and its relationship with chinese consumers. in the past, it was about traveling to the u.s. or europe to pick up their goods. we saw these brands setting up their own stores in china and hong kong. is that still a strategy that is going to work for them once we get past this? obviously -- the ripple effect to the businesses is significant. theseare some ways businesses can mitigate a risk. working with the digital platform, so people are staying home for the time being, they work with alibaba and others to have e-commerce be more amplified. but also, the luxury outlet allow for these luxury brands to liquidate gracefully their inventories.

it is really something that is needed. the way you use a different channel of distribution is something they have to think about. scarlet: liquidate gracefully. does that mean there's going to be massive discounts on luxury onds, and people have moved to spring products? mortimer: we are moving on to the middle of the season, eight weeks into the selling season, and ultimately in china, those inventories are aging. fashion is something that ages. jewelry doesn't age. watches don't age. accessories age more slowly. those industries are the ones to watch. joe: what about on the supply chain side? tech and things like that, those industries are exposed. luxury, is that less so? wuhan is right now,

one of the centers, not only for textiles, but also for logistics. -- in north america, it is still 50% of textiles come from china. people have tried to diversify 50% from china, but still, is a large number coming out of china. romaine: are there countries that can pick up some of the slack? ,f you spread it out bangladesh, vietnam, is it possible to do that? mortimer: it is happening and has been happening for the last three years. there are other markets that are picking up more business. even back home in the united states. is this comparable to any other period? we like to compare it to sars

when it comes to trying to understand the outbreak. but in terms of the hit to luxury retail, what can we compare it to? mortimer: what is difficult today is the double whammy to the asian luxury industry, particularly on top of the hong kong situation. hong kong is a huge hub for luxury. that has been hampered for the last few months. this makes it unprecedented. romaine: you mentioned this idea of folks using online sites to do shopping. some of these luxury brands, their online presence definitely wasn't at the level it is. you can't really buy some of these products online. have thatompanies apparatus in place? mortimer: they do.

has the global luxury platform. they have their own platform. happening int more that space. delayed is this spending or lost spending? think it even unfortunately. once the impulse has evaporated, it has gone. you have to start getting people into the stores or onto your sites and ultimately it is a hit. scarlet: sounds like lost spending. romaine: some great insight here. program,ng up on this we are going to talk about credit suisse. the ousted ceo in an effort to save his reputation. we will have more on that next. this is bloomberg. ♪

time now for a look at what stories are trending across the bloomberg universe. sentenced pimco ceo to nine months in prison for paying $850,000 in bribes to get his children into usc and georgetown. the sentence is the longest yet for a parent in the college emissions scandal in the u.s. bloomberg.com has a story on the actress and goop ceo, gwyneth paltrow. two years after hitting $250 million in valuation, she says goop has all the ingredients to expand into food and retail without other people's money. and quick take is reporting that u.s. is experiencing

its slowest population growth in a century. the u.s. grew by almost 0.5% from 2008 to 2019, the slowest growth since 1917 to 1918. however, puerto rico saw a population increase for the first time in a decade. follow all the stories on your terminal and on bloomberg.com. joe: credit suisse ousted ceo, a move that the chairman called for in an attempt to fix credit suisse's reputation. , the second largest shareholder of credit suisse, spoke to bloomberg earlier. chairman should be replaced. if he really cares about the organization, if he really cared about credit suisse, he would

step down as chairman. in: for more, let's bring bloomberg's jenny saran. obviously a big part of the story is the spying scandal and the guy who left. also, the stock price just was not good. i'm curious. had there been better performance at the business, would it have been easier for him to survive this? >> it is a really important question. the bank today was saying that the spying scandal affected their reputation in switzerland. that is where they get 40% of their pretax income. they are trying to turn things around. then, the share price falling by half, that is definitely not a good sign either. romaine: we should point out, this was a big deal over there.

this was tabloid fodder. there was a lot of drama here. assuming that credit suisse is willing to put this behind it, they do have a new ceo. who is he and what is he going to do? be a reallyhat will important question. this is their first ceo in two decades. it is really putting that hometown player at the issue here. i think just like we heard before, shareholders are really concerned that this new ceo is going to follow whatever the board and chairman is wanting them to do. it will definitely be something that i think is attention that we have to see play out. scarlet: tidjane thiam comes out of the scandal looking pretty bad. if he was aware, then he's conflicted. either way it is not good. what does he do next and what

does it mean for his legacy? >> it will be very interesting. that internal probe dated did not find any fault. there's that. stock priceling never looks good for any ceo. --will be just kind of a way we will see where he lands. romaine: joe happened to mention that this guy who was involved in the scandal, who was alleged to be spied on, he left to ubs. did he come out of this completely unscathed? >> i think these are headlines that will follow both executives around for the foreseeable future. it will be interesting to see how credit suisse tries to climb out of this. bad taste inng a folks' mouth. it don't want to think about next up in this kind of scandal.

it will be interesting to see what kind of damage control they have to do. scarlet: if you are a client, you don't want your banker being spied upon either. thank you. as romaine was saying, tabloid fodder. let's get you a check on the latest business flash headlines. today.at uber rally j.p. morgan wrote that uber emphasized the era of growth at all costs is now over. it is a battle of the exercise bikes. the owner of soulcycle equinox is getting funding from silverlake so it can take on its rival. terms of the transaction were not disclosed. equinox plans to introduce a soulcycle bike for at-home use. apple extending the store closure -- its store closures in china by a couple days. apple says on its website that

most stores will remain shut until february 15. potentially crimping sales in a critical region. apple also faces supply chain pressures. that is your business flash update. romaine: coming up, the oscar race has put the focus on innovation and streaming, but there is one older technology that still stands to win big. we will tell you about that, coming up next. ♪

romaine: the academy awards kickoff in los angeles on sunday and the oscar buzz has been around netflix. the streaming giant leads with 24 nominations but an old-school company could win big. we are talking about kodak having a bit of a comeback. bloomberg's l.a. bureau chief joins us now to talk about that. before we get to the nomination,

what is going on with kodak? >> four of the nine best picture nominees were shot on film and an additional one of the cinematography nominees. this company went bankrupt a few years ago. people kind of forgot about film. but they say that movie sales have been growing for the last five years. they set a record in terms of 65 millimeter film. renaissance little of people that collect vinyl records again, a bunch of really powerful hollywood directors still love film, not going to shoot on digital. quentin tarantino, christopher nolan, and many others. so we are seeing this little bump in film. joe: vinyl enthusiasts love talking about, the sound is warmer. i can't hear any difference. do the people who love to shoot on film have the same sort of

justifications and claim they can see differences the rest of us will never recognize? >> yes. i spent the hardest time trying to get them to explain why they like it so much. warmth, igrain, the think it is really just nostalgia. quentin tarantino has talked a lot about actually holding that film print and showing it at the theater he has in los angeles. he just loves that that one copy has entertained so many people over the years. people talk about that physical presence of being on film. but in terms of really stylized difference, directors probably for the most part can't tell. scarlet: isn't filming on film more expensive than filming digitally? this is something hollywood producers need to fund. down, willart to go this stay? >> that is the fight that these

hard-core directors fight with studios. digital past film as the main medium in 2012. it is well over 90% market share now. it is much more easy to transfer the files, to manipulate them with visual effects. reallyhauteur's that want to shoot on film have to argue over budgets. romaine: let's talk about some of the movies out there. ofryone is pointing to some these movies that could win. some of these movies were released in theaters. we also have a couple movies up for nominations that were released to netflix. >> the irishman, which could have been a classic one for --aters, martin scorsese exactly. withked a lot about this directors in the past week. they've really sort of given up this fight. it is sort of something we

follow because we love netflix and the stock is so high. but here you see a director like noah baumbach with marriage story, the classic art-house director, his film is on netflix. it just doesn't matter anymore. all of the filmmakers would love to see their films in a theater. but the battle is really over in terms of streaming versus theaters. scarlet: these directors are so throwback. chris palmeri, thank you so much. enjoy the oscars on sunday. which of the movies have you seen? joe: i saw uncut gems. romaine: that was not nominated. i've seen one, parasite. scarlet: paisa parasite. romaine: once upon a time in hollywood, jojo rabbit, which i was informed is not a children's movie. scarlet: coming up, fed chairman

jay powell testifies before congress. joe: cti comes out on thursday. romaine: u.s. retail sales coming out next friday. subscribe to our weekly podcast on itunes. ♪

taylor: i am taylor riggs in san francisco and this is bloomberg technology. turnedup, after an app the iowa caucus into a disaster, nevada says it will be going low-tech. we will look at how the start of the u.s. presidential primaries became such a mess. plus, we got the first real look at how disney's new streaming servicar