tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg February 14, 2020 4:00pm-5:00pm EST
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is not enough to get the market to go a lot higher after the huge rally we have already seen? given that last year we had zero nd thisin this year -- a year at another lowering of guidance. as we hear earnings estimate start to come down, that could be a catalyst for the market romaine: to pull back. romaine:there is that phrase about the market staying irrational longer than folks stay solvent. the dow down on the day but you see the s&p 500 and the nasdaq climbing back into the green. the s&p 500 for the week up about 1.5%. nvidia at the top about 15% on the week but you have commute occasions, expedia, hass, not quite the typical names you'd see the top of the leaderboard for a weekly gain. >> ibm leading that dow lower. , we beenar, walgreens
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wanting that big walgreens boost buyout. article one of the worst performers. 500 gaining in that late rally over the last 20 minutes or so. pushing into the green. all three indexes are up by at least 1%. the nasdaq leading the way. let's check in with our reporters across the different asset classes to see what they've been monitoring as we head towards the close. get us started. euros downook at the on the day but also going into its second weekly decline, that is hitting the lowest point since 2017. positive on the day. thats declining with weekly decline is crucial. some analysts worrying maybe this could be a signal of the year hitting parity with the dollar with something we haven't seen really coming off concerns around economic growth in europe but also some ecb easing. the key is going into next week
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which that data suggests we will watch the consumer confidence data as well as manufacturing pmi's. was tracking gold prices and coronavirus concerns are sending gold prices higher. investors are concerned how deadly virus may impact global growth and even though some investors bought risk assets. they are still buying some safe havens. other safe haven investments. exchange traded funds are spending the record high for the same coronavirus concern. otheralth management said persistent global and geopolitical risk are also driving gold prices higher today. >> as we head into the weekend we are about 4/5 of the way through the earnings reporting season. so far, so good. s&p 500 companies are beating analyst estimates by about 5.5%. that's a decent uptick from the previous quarter which was about
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4.6% and it beats a pretty widespread, 10 of 11 industry groups have beaten real estate is the only one that hasn't. the big question is about the outlooks and is this chart shows, what this shows is it tracks the number of company outlooks that are above analyst estimates distracted -- moreacted by those companies are reporting estimates for -- forecast below analyst estimates. that is not exactly unusual for this time of year and neither is it more pronounced than some of the previous years. the question is a lot of companies had warned about earnings because of the effect of the coronavirus. not a lot of companies have put firm numbers on what the damage will be, some even withdrawing their outlooks completely, so romaine, still too early to put numbers on exactly how much damage will be caused by the
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coronavirus. romaine: our thanks to mike. and everyone behind the scenes on our markets team. still with us. chief market strategist and around the desk in new york, bloomberg news cross-ice at reporter katie. i want to go back to you. i want to talk about the weekend currency and affects here. we contingency dollar strength. we had a pretty remarkable week for the euros which continue to not be able to find any sort of support. do you see these trends that we've seen in the fx market lasting? because on ay longer-term basis, the way things are going i do think that trend will continue. it sure seems to be that way. however we are seeing in sentiment and a technical indicator telling us that both the dollars getting right for reversal lower and the you're getting right for a nice little bounce. i'm not talking about two or
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three days. some the last for a couple of weeks. when you look at the relative strength index getting very overbought, very oversold on the you're a. also look at the futures traders. the daily sentiment index. bullishness almost future traders for the euros was down 8% last night and -- with the year remaining low it could be even lower after tonight. the dollars up on was 90%. it one above 90 recently. everybody is on one side of this right now at least on a short-term basis. it be surprised if we saw a reversal that lasted for a couple of weeks which would catch some people off guard. i think short-term traders want to keep that in mind as we move through the first quarter. >> already shaking things off as we go into a long holiday, what we looking for next week? what are the big economic indicators and what are the things that might offset some complacency in the market? >> if you rewind to last month
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we have really strong numbers and you saw that ripple through the market. home builders had a great run after that. it will be interesting we've seen a lot of interest in mortgage backed securities, we've seen interesting utilities , so perhaps if we get health -- starts that's a surprise, it may add that extra leg to that rally we've seen so far because the s&p utility sector had a great week. it's close to a record high. a great run00 has this year which is interesting because you had a story about one the investors multifactor etf last week really changes its approach to the market, a different bet on what can lead. talk us through what it's thinking -- what it changed its position to and what that's about the broader risk appetite out there. >> is a fascinating etf.
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and the way based it determines its holdings is looking at global risk appetite and economic indicators. i talked with the portfolio managers and they said the only thing that changed between january and february was the fact risk asset -- risk appetite soured and you can pin that directly on the coronavirus. previously where it had been investing in smaller companies and companies with evaluations, now it's looking for safety, it's looking at low momentum, quality stock and that's again because of the fears the virus will drag down global growth. >> how you feel about global equities in this case? at one point to they become a relative value trade beyond the fears everyone has about the markets abroad right now? >> it's funny because one of the things and i was saying about a week or so ago if you think the
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coronavirus is going to amount to nothing, china would be where you want to be because there market is sold off quite a bit. a lot more than the u.s. market. the problem as it bounced back a lot more in recent weeks -- the last week or so. so i think it will -- the key thing right now is you have a market that's quite overvalued in the u.s. and so you want to set up, be prepared in advance. in the emerging markets is a lot of risk right now. but once we clear -- hopefully we clear the situation the coronavirus. it will be a lot of potential there. so if you have what you set up whether the countries, not just abroad eem etf. certain companies in the emerging-market area that could benefit the most, i think they will bounce back much more because how much could bounce back. ifyou have those in advance, the market sees another downdraft, you will be able to
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pick up some things. >> a lot of people when they look at the u.s., they look at it from a relative basis. so what you are seeing overseas, when you look at that european data we got this morning on gdp into look at some the other concerns there. it makes it hard to say let's shift over now outside of the u.s. only still have that differential that continues to favor the u.s. side. >> there is no question. one of the things and we noticed this week this gdp data out of europe and germany, it's disappointing. data has been disappointing there and yet you have the germany -- hitting all-time highs. so if there's anything the complacency is even more in europe than it is here. the two areasause that seem to be the least affected by potential of the coronavirus, they are the ones
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that could be -- have the biggest problems. >> do these fixed income investors have some relief when you look forward into the rest of springtime? >> it depends on how you fight -- defined relief. there's not a lot of impetus for yields to go higher from here. you do have a long-term position lower for longer yield, you're probably looking at a pretty good few months. we will see how long these coronavirus fears last, whether that does lead into the economy because then we might finally see that reflation trade that a lot of big bond funds of latched onto to start 2020. >> thank you so much. cross set up order along with matt mele. that does it for the closing bell. is up next.iss this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> live from bloomberg world headquarters new york, i'm romaine bostick. scarlet: i'm scarlet fu. romaine: here's a snapshot of how u.s. stocks closed today after being in the red for half a day. investors decide to show the s&p and nasdaq a little bit of love. automotive pressure. coronavirus disruption set it -- seeing car sales written you in court. airbnb is one of the most
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litigious startups in silicon valley and now it's ramping up court dates of the clock ticks on the stock market debut. and no love lost. by valentine's day may not be the restaurant industry boon you think it is. despite the markets insistence on looking past the coronavirus, the outbreak is posing a big problem to companies and their employees in the asia-pacific region. maven monitoring the headlines and joins us from hong kong with the latest. one of most recent headlines is a worker from singapore has now tested positive for the virus. contractor at the manufacturing site has tested positive as of february 13. operations at the plant to remain unaffected. this comes after they sent over some workers in singapore after one employee came into contact with a confirmed case. we had a similar situation in
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hong kong on friday confirming one employee was put in placed under quarantine after a suspected case there for coronavirus. we do have a hong kong situation where the confirmed number of cases has ticked up to at least 53 the government here seeming to cushion against that impact. for tourism, for cash, you see the economy under pressure. 99%d clinch by as much as on yearly basis. romaine: let's talk about some of the supply disruptions we've been seeing. fiat chrysler suspending production that an assembly plant in serbia. this the first european body -- auto plant was seen affected by the virus. that continues reverberations across the auto space.
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fiat chrysler joining what we are seeing with their operations being affected as we have ford feeling the pain. it's looking to extend for production staff in china. this as it's trying to get its operations online february 24. so far the operations outside of china remain unaffected but a quick word on volkswagen feeling the pain there as it stays closed through this week. does not bold well for car sales given the output seeing another setback. >> what are you looking for in terms of how hong kong and china respond this weekend. it will be a long weekend in the u.s. so investors are keeping their eye on potential headlines and potential negative headlines. what are things you are keeping an ion there? >> we are expecting more measures from authorities in china. for example there's reports they
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may be less strict when enforcing a quota on property beated loans which could targeted measures to shore up lending with potential further cuts to the rrr and next week the pboc could further lower the lowest crime rates paid -- monterey policy taking the lead here and fiscal policy taking the weight of that burden as well. we could essentially see one being announced as early as march. for comparison when it comes to what that number could be like. 2008, chinaof allocated some $586 billion. you -- is it getting better or is it getting worse? >> it's hard to say. when you take a look at the data coming out of china which has been a bit of a head scratcher given the adjustment we saw with the new methodology to identify
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cases, on friday, china did affirm that was a one-time increase. we did see a lowering of the reported cases and the death toll given a double count was identified. so you do have the total number of different cases creeping up towards 64,000 and the death toll at 1380. it's hard to save the peak is anytime soon. >> sophie reporting from hong kong. coming up, president trump gaining support from some unlikely places. why some silicon valleys billion years are finding the best way to take on amazon might be a donation to the president's reelection campaign. those details next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> breaking news en kraft heinz. s&p cutting the debt rating to junk status. now it's triple d+. the outlook there is negative. the significance is fidget cut its rating also to below investment grade as well. this makes kraft heinz a fallen angel. ,t's can have to be pulled out double b plus is the current rating down from triple b, again we know the current iteration with the creation of warren buffett about five years ago. it is of course has been a story where the debt is trading. >> a lot of catalysts here. this of the many to cut a dividend or divest a lot of assets in order to reduce its debt load. this is coming into next week. >> so interesting given the new
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manager was meant to be cutting costs and getting the company's financials in order. but the shift in consumer taste kind of changed everything for the company. >> let's move onto another story. we are keeping ion further craft headlines. it will move over to the tech sector. larry is fiercely competitive. always seeking an edge over competitors putting amazon. allison is now making with his friends enemy -- with his enemies enemy. eric, his enemies enemy would be president trump. explain how allison is making friends with president trump here to push back against amazon. >> what a world here. your enemy's jeff bezos and your enemy's enemy is the president of the united states. there allison is holding a fundraiser for present trump's reelection and obviously he is the president.
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silicon valley certainly is an a president and so who's been a victim passionist -- been a big antagonist of jeff bezos. >> is this all about just winning contract from the government or is this something bigger that silicon valley wants here for larry ellison and peter thiel to be siding with president trump. to get to it's hard one reason somebody like larry decides to host a fundraiser for trump. certainly he is held fundraisers for republicans before. he was a supporter of marco rubio last time around in 2016. but certainly oracle has been on this super aggressive campaign to block amazon from winning this jedi defense department crowd contract. and president trump has been a big antagonist in getting amazon that contract to the point where
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microsoft won it and now amazon is suing the decision was -- suing saying it was influenced by politics. how was is being received by employees? re-code singy and oracle employees were upset or at least some of them were and that's not surprising. if you look at q4 fundraising numbers for some of the big tech companies come a bernie sanders is getting the most money so this is among the demo -- among the democrats prayed this is a group of employees that is largely liberal, supports democrats and among the democrats supports the sanders war and wing of the -- for the most part. >> the ceos need to be politely pragmatic. apple, alsocook of known as tim apple. in order to make sure he's in
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the loop whether the ministration does something that effect silicon valley. thanks for joining us by phone. >> we have some breaking news here. we have the 13f filing that have been crossing the wire really for quite some time here. i guess what stands out prayed let's start with warren buffett and berkshire hathaway prayed they've been pouring money -- adding money to kroger and biogen. >> occidental is a really interesting buy. when he added to his stake in november, the stock did get a little boost over there so we will watch that into next week. we don't know how he feels yet really right now about kraft heinz. you mentioned occidental. icon is kind of reducing it's taken occidental. two heavyweights there. >> absolutely. going to net care. icon is asking for more information on occidental and potential takeover activity
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here. hardware, ioration don't know if you've ever been to that store. is buffett going harder into luxury retail? he is thinking about that consumer. berkshire hathaway selling goldman sachs. which is interesting given the kind of news we've heard. a brain drain. some departures of key executives. berkshire cutting its holdings after four quarters of no change when it comes to that position. >> there that long history of goldman sachs. >> we also want to mention we will have coverage on some key voices from washington. wall street week, zedd 6:00 p.m. on bloomberg tv. looking forready the decline. oil demand is lower than it was a year ago and world oil demand
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>> i'm mark crumpton with first word news. the chinese city with the coronavirus outbreak began is further tightening its already's direct quarantine on residence. officials say people won't be able to leave their neighborhoods except to see -- seek medical care or assist in vital functions. there more than city 4000 cases globally. more than 99% of which are in china. michael avenatti has been convicted of trying to extort as much as $25 million from nike and defrauding the client in the process. the verdict could lead to a long prison sentence for the lawyer
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who entered the national spotlight by representing adult film actress stormy daniels in a suit against president trump. he maintained the case was political payback for his clash with the president. he will be sentenced in june. the united states and the taliban have reached a truce agreement. a senior u.s. official says the deal will take effect very soon and could lead to withdrawals of american troops from afghanistan. developments, secretary of state mike pompeo and defense secretary mark esper met today in munich with afghanistan's president. it was two years ago today when a team -- teenage gunman carried out a massacre in marjory stoneman douglas high school in parkland, florida. 17 students and faculty were killed. today students organized a special breakfast for first responders, broward county sheriff gregory tony was among those in attendance. >> it was difficult to come in and see all these young folks
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giving us applause and saying thank you for our services. understanding the not too long ago we came up short. it was a good strong message that the community has forgiven us as an organization, recognizing us as first responders and truly wanting to move forward. >> the sheriff added the breakfast was a sign the community is beginning to heal. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quick take by bloomberg powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton, this is bloomberg. picture formixed u.s. economic data this morning as economists gathered at the university of south florida for the fourth annual financial literacy day. michael mckee got the cleveland fed president's take on the numbers. take a listen. >> there is always going to be volatility in some of the numbers.
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if you have to look at the underlying fundamentals for the u.s. economy, they are pretty good. there is volatility in some of those numbers. all in all the fundamentals of higher income, balance sheets look good. side isnk the consumer holding out. the business side has been week. we had signs of stabilization on the manufacturing side. that's a good thing. notwithstanding today's numbers. that is kind of the way the u.s. economy has been. the consumer side is been driving things. but again that looks like it's stabilizing and expected to pick up. >> has your forecast for growth changed since you submitted in december? >> i think we now have some new risks including the coronavirus so you have to take that into account when you're thinking about growth but right now i'm thinking about risk.
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chinact that certainly in and perhaps in asia for the first quarter numbers will be weaker. this spill over to the u.s. economy as well and it remains to be seen by how much and for how long that will persist. in general i'm seeing that is a risk to my forecast. i haven't marked it down because of that. >> have your people been able to put numbers on the risk for the coronavirus? >> it's difficult. usually the private sector numbers that i've seen are based on what was true with the sars epidemic. the world a lot different that it was in 2003. china is a much bigger part of the global economy than it was then. on the other hand china is also a wealthier country than it was then and they've already taken steps to try and limit the fallout as have other countries. very hard to make those comparisons. we are sort of evaluating the number of cases like everyone else other than trying to figure
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out how much impact it will have on the u.s. economy. our focus is on the u.s.. >> you mentioned the manufacturing production in january. your district is the heart of manufacturing in this country great what are you hearing from factory owners and workers in your district? >> all in all the manufacturers in our districts are -- they don't see things falling off a cliff at all. they are not worried about recession. on the other hand they don't think things will pick up a lot. coming in, but nothing to write home about. higher or lower. it is steady as she goes. >> the trade deal phase i is not to make a difference in terms of this investment? >> i think it's too early to see. certainly the good thing about the signing of the deal is the uncertainty around trade has gone down but it's too early to evaluate whether we will see it picked up or how much of a pickup in investment because of
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the uncertainty. >> wall street is betting you guys are going to cut rates again this year. >> i think as is true whenever we go seeing things, we evaluate the economic information we believe from my district contacts and the data we look at what the financial market signals are telling us as well and then make a judgment about where policy is. last meeting and the chair's remarks and the press conferences that we think policy is in a good place for eight i agree with that. inflation is low, labor markets are strong, the economy appears to be growing at a trend of 2%. and that gives us a baseline to watch and look and evaluate and then we will determine whether policy needs to move one way or another going forward. >> do you see anything that would suggest the need for more
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stimulus? >> i think policy is a good place. period wheregood we can evaluate. we will have to decide whether we need to change policy in reaction to that but right now i think the outlook is still good notwithstanding the risk that the coronavirus is posing for us. >> do you believe that inflation is going to hit 2% this year. >> i think inflation will gradually hit 2%. i think probably not until the end of this year or into next year, but nonetheless early numbers will be up over some of the week numbers. but to be sustainably at 3% i think they'll be a gradual uptick as the expansion continues in labor markets remain strong. >> is michael mckee's conversation with loretta mester.
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thehe ftc announcing from -- big technnouncing from companies information on hundreds of acquisitions they've made over the last decade. one deal that is seen as a target for regulators is googles .urchase of the mapping app nounwe heard about the s&p -- the announcement it was originally intended to go after smaller acquisitions because
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that's how someone was -- like google is eating up the competition around it and dominating other parts of the common --ut now it is >> the s -- they said we will look at the -- because small acquisitions get a green light, it doesn't matter. just do it. when we looked at this we realized it actually hadn't gone a very -- gotten a very strenuous probe from the ftc when it was acquired because it had no revenue in the u.s. at the time. so the whole philosophy was this tech company isn't making any money. clearly it should be fine for competition and now it's one they will be looking at. >> in hindsight you can see the silliness of that. it's interesting the u.s. is behind the curve on this. the u.k. and european regulators have been looking into this as well. what did the u.k. find when they looked into the transaction? let it goso initially
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through but there was a second investigation as to what might be going on. although they didn't sort of unwind it. they had less power over the u.s. company as the ftc would. but they did point out a few major things which is waze was going quickly. offer the technology to serious competitor in mapping to google and it had sort of his social network aspect where people were using it and sharing information in ways they weren't and google. in some ways it might've had an advantage and when they went into google it's got -- it got sucked into the behemoth. >> what is a likely outcome of this deeper look into waze? saying we is sort of are looking for information, this isn't -- we are not assuming there is anything if areas that's gone on here.
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what i think you are seeing is it's part of a larger move from all branches of government, investigations up from the department of justice, the state level, attorneys general who are collecting a ton of information about big attack and they can really do anything with that. there could be fines, orders about how they are allowed to conduct their business, that kind of thing. cant's easy to say how regulators have overlooked this but at the time that google was wanting to acquire waze, it was facing another esha number of big threats. it wasn't entrenched in social media. as something this he needed to tackle quickly. >> google maps i think that was still essentially the era where we were searching on google maps and hunting those out and bring it into our car when we went to a drive. it wasn't all mobile. they weren't necessarily integrated with the dashboards yet and ways had this huge
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mobile following. so they were kind of had the curve in that way and so when google bought them they got a little expertise. and the core app is very popular on mobile now. >> thanks for giving update there. for those of you out there using it, put the phone down. but if you use it to get your airbnb, that company feeling the regulatory heat as well. it's been fighting against regulations in cities across the u.s. seeking to clarify the legal status and protect thousands. mark, blumer now, technology managing editor. i thought the story you guys put out, the number of lawsuits airbnb has either filed themselves or been the subject of has basically exploded over the last year or two. what is actually behind it? what's behind it is a company
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that's trying to essentially inate a new industry that is some gray areas of the law in many places. years andeen over the in recent years you mentioned the company has filed at least 11 legal actions against major u.s. cities. several places in california. seeking are essentially in some cases to change the law or carve out exceptions for themselves. it's part of this very aggressive silicon valley let's change the way things work and in some cases is parallel to what uber did in the earlier days. 120 lawyers here, a budget of 60 million in legal fees in 2018 alone. is there any sign they are willing to work with government here or is it all just hostile? >> they've made some concessions
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but it is a company that realizes they need to change the way things work in certain somes and carve out exceptions in order for their long-term prospects to make sense. this is a company that probably in the coming months will try to list its shares publicly and so they want to be able to show they've got a secure position in some of these big places like new york and boston and elsewhere where they've had challenges from officials, whether their services even legal. >> there's a lot at stake for the company as well. rules on short-term rentals are set locally but they can be cited as precedent by other locales. not just airbnb, that's affected , other companies that do the also keeping a close eye on this. >> right. and they've been the subject of
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some of these legal issues in the past, but airbnb is the biggest in many markets including the u.s.. so they have had to kind of take a leading position in taking cities and states to court in order to secure the market for everybody. most of all for themselves. citiesnb versus american is one thing but when you look at all these lawsuits, a guest was burnt at an apartment because the barbecue exploded. some of these are very scary things to happen in an apartment. how much are consumers getting spooked by some of these? story wephasis for the place on some of their battles with cities, but like you said the data shows a whole range of unusual legal cases they are embroiled in. more than 230 which involve casesand hidden camera
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and bedbugs and i think anyone who reads the local news and theirs local tv sees these cases that pop up airbnb the same way the scares we've seen around the attacks in ride-hailing. i think it is an issue the company needs to reassure customers the safety of its platform and so one of their other big initiatives for the years around safety and spending andt of money to try fortify their listings. >> good stuff. issuesg airbnb's legal from san francisco. this get your check now on the business flash headlines. if tesla wants to avoid a big penalty it will hire about 360 more workers at its factory in western new york.
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and more than 1100 workers in buffalo. tesla got subsidies to build their and part of the deal called for there to be 1400 60 workers by april. -- 1460 workers by april. softbank will invest $1 billion from its latin america fund this year. the japanese firm a focus on e-commerce, health care. they raised $5 billion for the fund and launched a year ago. so far it's invested in 17 companies and to d.c. firms. google may be on the verge of a major change in its relationship with news organizations. google is negotiating with publishers about paying for content. that content would be used in a premium news product. that is your business flash update. brokenup, restaurants hearts club. by valentine's day is not necessarily as good for the food industry as you might think it should be. this is blumer. ♪ -- bloomberg. ♪
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feeling the same love. i would think this would be a pretty big day for restaurants. everybody uses this as a data profess their love to their significant other to get their teddy bears and flowers and go to their favorite restaurant. what the issue here? >> it is not a great day for restaurants. it ranks 94th in 2019, even came behind -- >> all those prefixed menus. partly that if the restaurants have a reputation for being romantic or destination restaurants they get booked up right away but your local restaurants, they are generally not -- you can probably get in there and find a table. you can't really kick a couple that's looking about to get engaged out. >> i'm going to my local bar. [laughter] that the anti-valentine's
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day. the only way they can attract customers on valentine's day is if they go with broken hearts and all that. >> let me get this straight. if it's the 94th most lucrative day of the year for restaurants, this time around that's only friday so should be better than normal. >> this cool software company, it fell on a thursday. so that was based on weekday valentine -- weekend valentine's day is very different. regular saturday is more profitable than valentine's day for restaurants prayed >> are the menus for these expensive romantic restaurants even good on valentine's day? >> the short answer is no. you can probably find a good one if you were smart and booked it a year ahead. but mostly it's drowning in truffle oil with some bad every
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or extracompaniment you can think of will be piled on. it's one of those you see -- bills you see when you get some any extras and/or like how did that happen. mother's day, saturday is number one, mother's day sunday is number two. they are the breakout. , saturday,y weekend that is third. everyone celebrate their fathers. laster the fourth biggest one coincided with spring break. so who knows what's driving these things. >> i think it's drinking. cinco demaio's 93rd and spring break saturday was fourth. there has to be alcohol involved. >> i was very surprised about that cinco demaio thing.
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>> i love cinco demaio. i had it all wrong. >> what are you doing on valentine's day? >> i'm going to go to a bar. >> perfect. who else is going to a bar on valentine's day? >> first round on me. >> coming up, a reminder u.s. markets are -- for president's day. datas. manufacturing pmi is out on friday. just a reminder, use and subscribe to on itunes, you can find our content each friday and enjoy it. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪ sometimes your small screen is your big screen.
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taylor: i'm taylor riggs in san francisco. this is "bloomberg technology." coming up in the next hour, record highs. investors in love at that nasdaq this valentine's day. the tech index closes at another record. with valuations stretched, is now the time to still be invested? we speak to ubs. plusho
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