Skip to main content

tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  February 26, 2020 1:00am-2:00am EST

1:00 am
manus: from dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." >> these are today's top stories. anotherocks fall after route for u.s. equities, the slump after the cdc warned americans to brace for a coronavirus outbreak. treasury yields hold your yesterday's record low. all, theolina free for coronavirus issue makes it to the debate stage as michael bloomberg, amy klobuchar, and joe biden wears in -- weighing. bernie sanders takes the brunt of attacks. package as the budget
1:01 am
looks to defend against political unrest and the coronavirus. the main feature is a one-off cash payment. manus: breaking news from one of the world's biggest miners. the rio tinto, underlying 22.2 billion, a beat on the market estimate. the underlying profit, the core number is also a beat, $10.37 atlion on a number estimated 10.2. in terms of dividends, $6.2 billion, they are pledging zero emissions by 2015. on the capex, they say they will spend 5.49. they will report a final ordinary dividend of $3.7
1:02 am
billion. those are the top line numbers as we got iron ore grumbling for a third straight day. market, soe in that in terms of the rest of the dividends, it is going to be that that really drives the market this morning. he's got some numbers from ed echo. what we've got is a 600 million share buyback announcement and the four-year dividend per share coming in at 2.5 job -- 2.5 swiss francs. share buybackion is something to note. adecco is unlikely to buck a negative staffing trend so we will discuss that with the ceo when we speak to him shortly. we will have that in a few minutes. manus: rio tinto, closely
1:03 am
monitoring the impact of covid-19. take.l get his preparing for issues.hain s&p 500 wiped out. $2.5 trillion wiped out the -- off the s&p 500. the fastest movement from record high down by nearly 8%. 1927, so that is what we are grappling with in terms of the market. you are breaking through the breakevens. where does the money flow to? can it make it to 125? we will ask if the bond yield is pricing band amec -- pandemic or no overzealous take on the downside to growth. dollar-yen, hong kong delivering helicopter money.
1:04 am
hsbcre seen jpmorgan and say get ready for another rate cut from the boj. nejra: interesting dqy hasn't gotten to 100. the msci asian-pacific in the red for a fifth day and the toures in europe, contrary what u.s. futures are pointing to another day of declines for europe. losses in europe were not as severe in yesterday, closing down 1.8%. it to ther beat record low last week, bouncing up yesterday. we drop below the 180 handle -- 1.80 handle. spread ofory and the the coronavirus across the middle east, europe, and asia, fueling concerns it is widening to a pandemic as south korea emerged as a hotspot. infections have surged from one doubt -- to one. thousand from 51 week ago. korea soldier in south became the first u.s. military case reported and a brazilian patient has tested positive preliminary.
1:05 am
in japan, companies are asking employees to work at home. we've got the u.s. side of the story to deal with. the centers for disease control warning americans to prepare for a potential coronavirus outbreak at home. that follows hours after mr. trump said the outbreak poses little threat to the u.s. meanwhile in a response to the outbreak, hong kong unveiled a stimulus plan including a payout of 10,000 hong kong dollars to each permanent resident over the age of 18. let's see what one man at the forefront of employment around the world, joining us. joininge ceo of adecco, us for his first interview of the day. we will get to the share buyback in a moment. have you seen material shift or removal from mandates as a result of coronavirus around the
1:06 am
world? your first take. >> good morning, and no. we haven't seen any natural impact of the q4onavirus on the results of and even in the months of january. by that time, the impact was mainly limited to china but i said, at this stage, no impact of the coronavirus inactivity. in q4, we have delivered a strong set of results, we are strengthening. it is the sixth consecutive quarter of profitability improvement despite the lower review. thead a minus four in fourth quarter, strong set of results and we have announced a share buyback of 600 million over 2020 and 2021 on top of the
1:07 am
dividends, which implies we real return one billion cash to all shareholders. nejra: great to speak with you this morning. any trends in temporary employment that would cause concern at this point, and if so, which regions are feeling that the most? alain: at this stage, but coronavirus was mainly located in china. we have seen since a few days italy that,es in again, beside italy, there is no major expansion in france or in spain or the u.s.. it is very located. for us, it is a fluid situation and without any natural impact on the results at this stage. the costn i ask you,
1:08 am
savings in the business, i know of 250 a program total million euros by the end of 2020. where are we on that? where are you able to take the cost out the most and give us an update on targets. alain: first of all, we are pleased with the results regarding the target of 2019. was 120 million and we delivered 114 million in 2019 -- 140 million in 2019. we are on track to deliver 250 million this year. it is not only about cost savings. it is really about putting technology at work in order to increase -- increase the productivity of colleagues in the field, but also enhancing the customer and candidate experience, thanks to technology engineering.
1:09 am
for example, during the year 2019, more than 10,000 colleagues around the leading manufacturing processes that applied for services. allowing them to be really more productive in the work they do. we are putting some artificial intelligence at work, allowing us to screen, to test some candidates 24 hours a day, seven days a week, very convenient approach to the relationship with the candidates. the return of capital to shareholders you talked about today via the buyback and dividends, should we take that to mean your appetite for acquisition this year will not be so great? are you looking to make any acquisitions? alain: the return of capital is tolly about sticking
1:10 am
allocation policy, which states at the end of each year, we are looking at cash position and if , we returncess cash excess cash to shareholders and at the end of 2019, after we had also some investment -- divestment, and good cash generation during the year, we have taken the decision. we are always looking at potentialy regarding acquisition and we will continue to do this. at a functionking on the bloomberg, financial analysis. i look at your geographies and i the realitytell me of germany versus france in terms of growth trends. we are trying to understand europe, to give me the differential and how that plays out in those markets. the two markets are quite
1:11 am
different. is in a all, germany real structural change, especially around automotive's industry isthat suffering from this change of technology, the trade war, also in acting the export of german cars to other countries, particularly china, and due to this change on top of some regulation, the regulation change in germany, the market is really suffering. on the other side, you have france. france is also suffering from some slowdown in manufacturing but has been impacted by the strike and we have seen that in january. that is what explained the outlook for january at -5%. to be compared over the fourth
1:12 am
quarter. the change.mainly nejra: alain dehaze, ceo of the adecco group. joining us for the hour, michael metcalf at state street. great to have you with us. we will talk cross assets, but let's just talk about the bond market. the 10year yield beat year yield friday. the two-year yield at a three-year low. how much lower can yields go and are investors underestimating a potential reversal in bond yields? michael: to the first part of the question, clearly we don't know yet. brinkt we are is on the of a recession and maybe a global recession, and we don't know that, but if we are, i would expect treasury yields as a safe haven could go lower.
1:13 am
it is too early to say whether that is the case and it will take months to see the data -- data impact and in the next week how the coronavirus spreads. manus: we are going to grapple whether panicking in these markets are taking measured moments. michael metalfe, good to see you, but rio tinto has beaten me for a question. tinto.ck up on real some pretty impressive numbers. in terms of profitability, an eight-year high. that number comes in at $10.37 billion. be one of theto biggest on record for rio tinto. the are warning about impact of coronavirus is still too early for them to come up with the capital expenditure for the year $7 billion. they see potential impact for
1:14 am
the first quarter in the coronavirus and will grapple with that in regards to the supply chain. -- we will get to those numbers and what does it mean. the ceo. an exclusive conversation. that is why you watch bloomberg. conversations.nd more on bloomberg. ♪
1:15 am
1:16 am
>> we have to work and expand the world horse regularization -- world health organization. we have to make sure our infectious departments are fully funded. this is a global problem. we have to work with countries around the world to solve it. >> i would be on the phone with china making it clear. we are going to need to be in your country. you have to be open, you have to be clear.
1:17 am
we have to know what is going on. >> we don't have the organization we need. you is a serious thing, as see, the stock market is falling apart because people are worried and we should be. >> i would better coordinate throughout my presidency to be ready for the next pandemic and prepare for this one. michael bloomberg is the founder and majority owner of bloomberg lp, the parent company of bloomberg news. it was a feisty debate. the presidential hopefuls, weighing in on coronavirus outbreak, the seven top polling in a televised debate ahead of the south carolina primary. this was the last showing before super tuesday. michael metalfe is with us from state street, macro strategy. good to see you. a riveting debate. what political risk are you looking at? how are you looking at political
1:18 am
risk as we see the owner of our company up on that stage along with bernie. it was aggressive last night, wasn't it? michael: it was. until we have a clearer view on who the democratic candidate is going to be, i think markets have been watchful but not really trading the political risk just yet. that will change as the year goes on and it will depend a lot on who the candidate is and their policy. at the moment, all the noise is around the coronavirus and so far, political risk hasn't really reentered the u.s. market. nejra: we turn to washington, d.c., we are joined on the phone. john, talk to us about how eager the candidates were to differentiate themselves before super tuesday and did it work?
1:19 am
certainlyink they all tried very hard to do that because as you said, this is the last chance for probably a good number of them to not only do and superuth carolina tuesday, but to stay in the race. trying to they are single out sanders over his as ae, and he set himself true believer who wants to bring about great change. you had amy klobuchar trying to stay above the fray and it was a raucous debate. a lot of sparring, a lot of crosstalk and people shouting over each other. , somewhat fierce, and then you have michael bloomberg, who had a better , stuck ton last week
1:20 am
his record, and he protects the image of a manager who can get things done. then there was joe biden, the ,ldest statesman, who has according to him, done a lot of position in the best to tackle the challenges ahead. in terms of bernie sanders, in terms of the numbers and the polling, he is out in front relative to others on the platform, isn't he? john: at this point, though at this point, biden seems to be in a fairly good position in south carolina. is standing has slipped, but would not be surprised if he wins that primary this saturday
1:21 am
is then super tuesday enormous. it is an election to itself almost so there could be many different states and many different outcomes. let's get to the first word news and a surprise shakeup at disney. bob iger is stepping aside, handing the reins to theme park chief bobchapec. he will take over immediately as head of the world's biggest entertainment company. chapek, we have someone who not only knows the company very well, having run important businesses including parks and resorts, but he's also someone we know very well. >> i intend to double down on the strategies bob has established 15 years ago that served us so well. the thing i've have taken away from bob iger's legacy is get the content right and everything
1:22 am
else follow suit. say ifjust too soon to the coronavirus will material hit the u.s. economy according to the fed vice chair richard clarida, the latest signal officials won't push to judgment on the need to cut rates. richard clarida says the virus is likely to have "a noticeable impact on chinese growth," at least in the first quarter. nejra: london spot -- stock exchange cash purchase is facing delays due to deeper than expected scrutiny by regulators in brussels. a full notification of the deal has been postponed. they agreed to buy the financial data provider last year. bloomberg lp, the parent of bloomberg news, competes to provide financial data. manus: growing violence in india's capital has left 17 people dead. that's as the right-wing hindu groups began attacking mostly
1:23 am
muslim protesters. they were demonstrating against the country, the new religion-based citizenship law. police have ordered to shoot rioters on-site. delhi inlence in new nearly three decades. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. coming up, too soon to speculate. fed officials will not rush to judge the impact of the coronavirus on the u.s. economic outlook. we discussed. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:24 am
1:25 am
nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." on nejra cehic in london. manus: time manus cranny into by. paper touched -- yesterday.
1:26 am
for investors looking for safety, annmarie hordern has a chart that matters. annmarie: can you believe we were here just on monday talking about the fact that this week, we could see a fresh record low and it came on tuesday. clearly there is a lot of concern and investors pushing yields lower. the next big question is how low can it go? strategists are weighing what they think. by juneamerica, 1.25% but considering how bad the situation could get, with worries around the world, they say go below 1% in the worse case scenario. the big question becomes, for the fed, will they be pushed to act because of the market? nejra: michael metcalf from state street is still with us. what it means for the fed but also other asset classes.
1:27 am
u.s. futures, positive in today's session. we went to low 30's on the rfi. in your cross asset strategy, what does a ten-year yield at that low due to your equity allocation? michael: i think it will depend on the data as it comes out, and it is difficult to fundamentally justify yield down here. this is a reflection of a risk -- the keyword was could happen. we don't know if it will. this is the cautionary insurance demand and it may be that they are oversold. -- michael, my apologies. brain freeze. michael: i can bemichael: tom if you want. inus: we are 30 seconds so will politely wrap up here because you and i can get lost in something difficult. how do you think about high-yield? we will talk about it when we get back.
1:28 am
michael metalfe from state street stays with us coming up on the show. that is one of those dreadful moments on live tv. private equity rose in europe. we head to the biggest industry event, simple return, anybody? when you move homes, you move more than just yourself.
1:29 am
that's why xfinity has made taking your internet and tv with you a breeze. really? yup. you can transfer your service online in about a minute. you can do that? yeah. and with two-hour service appointment windows, it's all on your schedule. awesome. so while moving may still come with its share of headaches... no kidding. we're doing all we can to make moving simple, easy, awesome. go to xfinity.com/moving to get started.
1:30 am
nejra: good morning from bloomberg's european headquarters in london. i'm nejra cehic with manus cranny live from dubai. this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe," and these are the top stories. manus: asian stocks fall after another route for u.s. equities. it came as the cdc warned americans to embrace for the coronavirus. fortinto sees potential impact from the outbreak. south carolina free-for-all. the coronavirus issue makes it onto the slate at the democratic debate. michael bloomberg, amy klobuchar, and joe biden always in. sanders is the story of the night. the frontrunner takes the brunt of the attacks.
1:31 am
a helicopter drop, hong kong unveils $15 billion stimulus package as the budget looks to defend against political unrest and the coronavirus. the main feature is one off cash. nejra: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: europe." please got numbers coming through from psa group. the 2019 adjusted operating income is at 6.30 2 billion euros. guesstimate was 6.14. that is coming in a little better than expected. just trying to get some more of the other lines for you as i move to the ticker. the mainline is a beat on the adjusted operating income.
1:32 am
that is the red headline. it is confirming its 2019-2021 auto adjusted target. its is the european auto market shrinking 3% in 2020. that is some of the concerning guidance and it proposes a dividend of the euro -- 1.23 euros per share. manus: growth at dannon. when it comes to the coronavirus, it will not the numbers. thetinto holding fire, airlines, all shifted their outlook on cash flow and profitability. this time, it is europe. dan and cuts the 2020 outlook because of the coronavirus. like for like sales will be two to 4% growth. still positive growth. previously it was four to 5%. it is whether we moved to the left-hand side of the number are not. for the rest of the numbers, operating income for the full
1:33 am
had, 3.80 5 billion, market 3.83. strong progress on profit growth is the top line of their news cutting the 2020 recurring operating margin. a margin cut by 1% cut by 1%, so 16% to 15%. by the way, the yogurt is very good. down to coronavirus on a more serious note. that is the number, margins and sales on the cut. quick skip through the markets. s&p 500, it was the speed of the repricing. and stuckill long with the portfolio that you might want to exit? we haven't seen a velocity from a record high to a drop of a percent since 1927. i wasn't even around.
1:34 am
tenure paper, will it get to 1.25%? are there three rate cuts? does the fed in a bind? we will discuss with michael metalfe in a moment. dollar-yen, everyone is getting ready for another 10 basis point cut. what does that do for yen? he still wants to be on yen. nejra: even though we saw another hit a 3% in u.s. equities, u.s. futures are in positive territory. you are seeing that on s&p, dow, and nasdaq futures. at asia, we are seeing red on the screen and european futures also negative, pointing to another day of declines. maybe the futures bounce is technical in the u.s.. butdge up slightly today, the two yield, also at a three-year low. a range of early indicators of china's economy rate and
1:35 am
february confirmed the outbreak has crippled consumption as factories remain below capacity and transport is curtailed. by indicators, dropped from the prime month with business plunging. economy is forecast to grow the slowest since 1990 according to recent economist reports. hong kong's financial sector reported a 120 billion hong kong dollar stimulus to shore up economic confidence in the city battered by unrest and the coronavirus. >> after careful consideration, i've decided to disperse $10,000 to each hong kong resident aged 18 or above to encourage and boost local consumption and relieving financial burden on the other. although the cash payouts came in a huge sum of public money, it is an exceptional measure taken in light of the situation
1:36 am
and will therefore not impose a burden on the long-term fiscal position. high spending coupled with low revenue amid the recession will swell the deficit, which he estimated will reach 100 39.1 billion hong kong dollars in the coming fiscal year. joining us, sophie kamaruddin from hong kong. the hong kong government, dipping into fiscal reserves with the city way to buy political unrest. some that up for us and the latest development through the rest of asia, notably south korea. sophie: in these unprecedented times, forecasts for the economy to see a back-to-back annual tougsion and given the economic condition, fiscal deficit seen widening doh in part to the handouts we are seeing with the latest stimulus package at $15.4 billion and the government expects a fiscal deficit over the next five years, that short fall hitting
1:37 am
$18 billion in 2021. policymakers in the region and the world, seeking to cushion the fallout from this virus and forh korea, consensus is the central bank to cut the key rate by 25 basis points to a record low 1%. japan, the highest case count in japan, reported the first that's from the coronavirus and a man in brazil has tested positive in sao paulo. manus: we are certainly re-rating the risks from around the world and we saw the hong kong response, helicopter money. sophie kamaruddin in hong kong. michael metalfe is our guest post from state street. we touched on the fed later -- earlier. standardelivered the rhetoric, which is, we are in wait-and-see mode. i want to show you what happened in high-yield yesterday. for me, it was a day when we
1:38 am
began to see the tentative repricing in markets. this is one of the biggest moves this year. high-yield over treasuries began to move. is this a warning sign about liquidity? by should i pay attention to a one-day move like this in credit spreads? michael: as you said a couple of times already in the show, the pace of the move we have seen the last couple of days -- have been significant. markets are looking more systemic than they were a week ago and the reason it is -- credit ispay one of the more crowded markets and it is also a good recession gauge. on the newspend flow relative to a recession risk comes but credit is the place to watch a were -- recession risk. nejra: the rhetoric out of the fed at the moment hasn't taken a dovish turn relative to what markets are pricing. if the fed does start to capitulate, maybe at the next
1:39 am
meeting in march and signaling they are more concerned than what they have been saying previously, what could that due to bond markets? q yields go lower because we start to price a worse economic scenario, or could we see a turnaround and even inflation expectations pick up as the market thinks the fed is acting? michael: i think following last year's playbook is probably a good guide and the last year, the fed surprised everyone by a revealing a reaction function where they were ahead of the slowdown from the trade war. if you assume a repeat this time around, it will probably be good initially. manus: there is a new, improved work function in the gtv library at the moment and the market is saying for three cuts. what does it take? we look at the credit spreads and you said that is a recession risk amber warning. if the markets are looking for three rate cuts, does it take a
1:40 am
recession to get the three rate cuts? michael: well, or a global recession, yeah. economy was going to do ok this year, but obviously, now we have this unknown unknown. u.s. data as it stands doesn't justify any rate cuts, so that is why the fed is in wait-and-see mode. that includes things like the chinese coming this weekend with the pmi data. nejra: i've got a chart in terms of the u.s. enjoying to negative rates. the real rate and the term premium. we've talked a lot about that has him as bond markets. what does that chart tell you for where the dollar goes for greener -- from here? michael: right now, you mentioned the yen. right now, the dollar clearly
1:41 am
has been the safe haven of choice, and the usual safe haven of choice has actually weakened and that has been a puzzle. i would say even though you have got very low growth expectations in the u.s., the dollar is the safe haven. want to push a little further on the three rate cuts which you say maybe the market is wrong and the consequence of that, if we don't have a global recession, what is the consequence for markets if we priced in three rate cuts and we get some kind of recovery? what does that do to equity markets? michael: i think the market is going to cycle between trading the news, and that has been the last couple of days. it has been trading the spread of the virus, or trading the reaction. reaction.licy throughout 2019, trading the reaction was the thing to do. what i would say, bond markets
1:42 am
are priced for an insurance policy here. if the insurance policy is not needed, that doesn't necessarily mean it is bad for equities because it means global growth is probably ok and the viruses contained. -- that't necessarily high yields won't necessarily be bad for equities at this stage, i would say. has a pieceauthers on the bloomberg, investors have a catch-22 in that worse fears are realized, if it is contained, money will get more expensive. michael metalfe from state street stays with us. as private equity grows in europe, we head to the biggest industry event. we are live in berlin next. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:43 am
1:44 am
nejra: this is "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm nejra cehic with manus cranny in dubai. record $4.1 trillion last
1:45 am
summer and while the majority of that comes from u.s. investors, europe's industry has been growing as more investors look to private equity for better returns. the firm spent around $450 billion in deals last year. attentive berlin for the super return private equity event in berlin. matt miller is there with a guest. great to see you. great to be here, probably the biggest private equity convergence on the global at super return. i'm with a managing partner at partners. a concentration on businesses here in europe and especially in the southern part of europe. tragedy of the coronavirus has approached these shores right near where you are investing. i'm wondering what impact you are seeing on the businesses you own. restaurant businesses, dental businesses in italy. what impact are you seeing? >> it is early days.
1:46 am
the weekend was a bit of a shock in terms of the impact it has had in our italian businesses. the restaurant businesses have had some impact because naturally, people are more fearful to go out, the government decided to close in shopping malls, so it has had some immediate impact. the expectation is a will probably continue to do so until people are more able to assess the risk properly. cautious because it is a difficult time to price risk. matt: what response do you expect? rome askingng brussels for more leniency in terms of the rules. do you expect real fiscal stimulus? nikos: i would expect and hope it would be the case, and i think there will have to be more measures, because the last couple of days, you already see the italian government adjusting its rhetoric and its approach to controlling more so the panic
1:47 am
that happened in that country in the last weekend. i don't know if it will be driven by stimulus or if it will be more by a lyrical, but i hope it will be the case. matt: what is your view of the economy, especially in southern europe, aside from the coronavirus? how are we going to see any growth in this economy? nikos: europe is not immune to the overall european environment, which at the moment is pretty low growth. it is facing some headwinds. also some central and northern european markets. i don't expect this materially to change. there are some countries within the southern european hemisphere, more in the southeastern european countries, where you can see more growth. countries like slovenia croatia made an investment a year ago in a telecoms and
1:48 am
media business in that region called united group. the reason was these markets are less mature. they are growing faster than the rest of the european market, and assets like united group show a larger growth potential because they are more international. they are not single country assets. a lot of the work we are currently doing is focusing on these markets in europe, but companies which are not single country, are more international, more global in some areas. that is our job. matt: at a time when we have donald trump waging trade wars, low growth, negative rates, you are looking for more multinational stories in southern europe. nikos: we are, and we do think --t our companies like this if you look at the capital that has been deployed in our industry and the region, there is more companies like this that you can identify who happened to be based in one of these
1:49 am
countries that have operations more globally. matt: thought about the evolution of the private equity market, because more than $4 trillion is deployed by private equity. this conference itself has been growing year-by-year. nikos: it is true. our industry has grown to about $4 trillion. i think private equity has become more relevant than other. -- ever. number of u.s. sponsored private equity companies grow by 6% last year. the number of private equity firms have doubled over the last decade. as an industry, we have grown substantially. this is not by chance. i think the private equity business model is one that increasingly people realize has some big advantages. it is more patient capital. we have the ability to change companies within a private
1:50 am
setting without having the impact of quarterly reporting. we can create value in their businesses, and by doing so, you can effect change and by affecting change, you can influence outcomes and this is what our industry has been doing, and we are much more structured at the moment to be more active owners. by being an active owner, you can make a difference. report a dayas a ago that showed over the last decade, investors may have been better off holding the s&p 500, although i'm sure they didn't realize what would happen in the last couple of sessions of the market, but nonetheless, you aren't and neck with public markets -- you are neck and neck with public markets. how much does that matter? nikos: probably versus the s&p, which is one metric, over the last few years.
1:51 am
secondly, i think we have been experiencing one-off, if not the longest bull run in the public markets ever. , wedly, our industry measure it on a longer-term basis and if you look at it since the last three or four active,we have been private equity has outperformed the public markets. there is no doubt about this. matt: we appreciate you joining us this morning. nikos stathopoulos, managing partner at bc partners. nejra: matt miller, thank you. coming up, how low can the 10 year yield go. some of this morning's calls on the treasury 10 year yield. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:52 am
1:53 am
manus: "bloomberg daybreak: europe." i'm manus cranny in dubai. nejra: i'm nejra cehic in london. 10 year treasuries have touched
1:54 am
a six-year low. a roundup the latest. takes. annmarie: how low can the 10 year yield go? bank of america says it is certain by the end of june, it will be at 1.25%. they see this as a new strong technical level. shn financial can see it below 1%. their economists call this a bad case scenario with disruptions to supply chain in china and around the world. these are the numbers to look out for. manus: cap low -- how low can she go in terms of the bond markets? michael metalfe is our guest host this morning from state street. let's take that. inve got the bond market syncopation with the treasury market, but can i ask you.
1:55 am
i was looking at btp's versus bunds. we've seen a small resurrection in the differential between the two. at one juncture would you be tempted into btp? michael: look, some countries have managed to contain the virus. they can contain it, btp will be at these levels. they can't, you would expect further weakness but the next couple of weeks, if they have, money will come back into italian bonds. nejra: global bond yields have gone as low as they have without this being classified a pandemic. you see yields higher by year-end. how much higher and walk us through how that happens. michael: a lot of the forecasts now include a lot of ifs and buts. if you have the current study state, the u.s. economy will
1:56 am
grow at 2%, inflation your 2%. in the u.s. are priced a significant discount to that and need negative shocks to occur to keep yields where they are. positiveat are the shocks we need to underpin growth because the argument would be more rate cuts won't cut it this time. excuse the pun. michael: i think that is a fair question. interesting to see hong kong's response to that overnight. big question that fiscal policy will eventually come and certainly if there is a global hit from the coronavirus, it will be a fiscal response, not a monetary one. nejra: michael: from state street joined us this morning. is nextpean market open and we could see a big day of declines in european equities after we closed lower 1.8% yesterday.
1:57 am
afterutures in the green a punishing session of more than 3% yesterday. the 30 year yield, extending its declines. this is bloomberg. ♪
1:58 am
1:59 am
2:00 am
nejra: good morning. we are live from our european headquarters here in the city of london. i'm anna edwards, alongside matt miller, who is out and about in berlin. i'm at the super return private equity conference in berlin. the markets are still risk off. stocks in asia fall on heavy volume after a heavy round on wall street. in oneh trade starts hour's time.

101 Views

info Stream Only

Uploaded by TV Archive on