>> markets spooked. stocks slide and bonds served on the coronavirus outbreak. stoxx 600 separates third street we could decline. coronavirus cases near 100,000 lovely. -- globally. andwho claims to name shame nations who are not doing enough. jamie dimon undergoes a heart operation. the bank says he is recovering well. "surveillance,"

everybody, in for francine lacqua today. this is the picture on the stock markets this morning, down 2.2% on the stoxx 600. ongoing fears about coronavirus, how it's going to be handled. what are we going to see? what damages that going to do to eke economies globally? that's the question as we watch the death toll rise and the infection rate as well. the u.s. ten-year, incredible the pace of the movement we are seeing. money going into the perceived safe haven of bond markets and sovereign bond markets in particular. the u.s. 10 year yield is now below 0.8%. brent prices below $50 a barrel, down 1.5% overnight. let's get to the breaking news for you. a french mp has been

hospitalized after contracting coronavirus. this is the ongoing feat of information we are getting into where this virus is spreading next. we talked about the rising rate of infection in the u.k., the u.s., germany, and italy, of course. we will see how long it takes to get to peak infection levels. let's get to our bloomberg first word news update. >> we begin with the coronavirus, specifically with the number of reported coronavirus cases around the world nearing 100,000 this morning. according to official statistics, more than 3300 people have died. -- 55,000,, though, though, have recovered. the coronavirus appears to be straining the u.s. health system. medical workers are warning of supply shortages. hospitals uncertain if they will

be able to test cases. lawmakers warned they will fall far short of the goal by testing one million people by the end of the week. russia's oil minister returns to vienna for talks with opec allies. the group posted output cuts of over 1.5 million barrels per day, but they say they could abandon that if russia does not take part. if it backfires, the price of oil could crash. russia and turkey announcing other cease fire over the deepening conflict in idlib. president putin and erdogan hoping to heal the strained relationship between their countries. newit did not establish a zone of control to resettle millions of refugees. global news powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries, this is bloomberg. anna. anna: viviana, thank you.

european stocks are sinking again. the travel sector hit its lowest level since 2014 as the number of coronavirus cases around the globe reaches 100,000. the bob rally has powered on, but what can be done? global central bankers are underscoring the hit to economies from the coronavirus, even as investors question the healing powers of monetary policy. we heard from policymakers about the cord needed response to the --break -- court coordinated response to the outbreak. >> the level of coordination is extremely high. >> we are coordinating to make sure each measure we undertake are complementary and that they will collectively have maximum impact. >> a strong sense that we are on the same page, doing what is exactly the same thing. >> the bank will take all

necessary steps to support the economy and financial system. >> give will help to moderate or mitigate the inevitable tightening of financial conditions. anna: joining us from paris is the head of economic research at herm as. vanke you for joining us. let's talk about what we have seen from central banks so far. would you describe it as a necessary but not sufficient response to the coronavirus crisis? well, once again the central yanks have showed us that the want to comply. in 2019 they did the same, but i think it would not be sufficient to help the global economy avoid 2020.chnical recession in the risks are still very high, especially as we now have supply

and demand choked. in 2019 cannot manage to basically reduce the size of the shock. anna: everyone is looking at the demand side as well. some analysis was trying to work out what hit the global economy would take from this. $347 billion. are you coming up with your own estimates as to how big the hit is going to be, or is it too soon? at: it is still early stages this moment, but what we have computed is taking into consideration the size of the business. staye a business that will until the end of april. taking into account that, we can connect that global trade losses would reach $320 billion third-quarter. this is as high as the losses in

trade that have been registered last year due to the u.s. and china trade war. this is a very important trade war year. global trade tariff is increased, which is a big shock, but what is new this time is it is split between goods and services. we have a supply and demand choked. last year, the reason we did not go into a global recession was the resilience of services. containment measures that are in place are a downside risk for this resilience, and the downside risk of consumer spending that, as i said, last year saved us from a global recession. anna: that's interesting, the distinction between what we saw in the global trade crisis and now here. your business, as i understand, provides trade credit insurance, so you have a real sense of what's going on in the trade

front. are you seeing any warning signs, any businesses getting into trouble on that front that you think throw up warning signs about global trade and the impact of what's happening? we look at the size of companies, at the size of inventories, and also their weaknesses. we are currently looking at the level of inventories to manage and see how strong the supply short can hurt some of the supply chain interconnections. there are some sectors that are more vulnerable than others, like computers and electronics, textiles, transportation, metals and mining. these are sectors where inventories are below average long-term. but what we are worried about is definitely the negative price effect from this crisis. we see discretionary impact growing going forth, because we

have the demand shock, so i volume effect, so we also have a price effect. the oil prices are very low. turnoverhe company growth is expected to fall in a number of developed countries. this is important to take in account. basically company turnover growth in negative territory for two consecutive years. and coupled with the high uncertainty, we should continue to see low profitability on the company's side. nejra: thanks, -- anna: thanks, ana. she's staying with us. jp morgan ceo jamie dimon has undergone emergency heart surgery. annmarie hordern is in new york with the details. annmarie: it was caught early and the surgery is successful.

he is awake, alert, and recovering well. that is what jp morgan said in a statement about dimon. he checked himself into a hospital, and that may have saved his life. as the most prominent executive in global banking, investors were concerned. shares of jp morgan fell about 1% in post market trading. the company placed copresidents daniel pinto and gordon smith in dimone aas recovers. back to you in london. well.we wish jamie dimon bloomberg's annmarie hordern with us there from new york. theng up, we are live from opec plus meeting in vienna as the organization engages in a high-stakes diplomatic gamble. ♪

anna: this is "bloomberg surveillance." a high-stakes diplomatic poker game is happening in vienna between russia and opec. they risk of price crash if it backfires. manus cranny is standing by with a guest. anna on a good day for you. -- anna, good day for you. today that itsk falls apart between opec and

opec+? >> i think there is a risk. the russians seem to have no interest in extending this cut to the end of the year or deepening it. we have seen in the last 24 hours that certainly this is a risk. opec put out a strong statement yesterday in a show of unity suggesting a cut at the end of the year. it is very strange for them to do so without an agreement with the russians. manus: was that a pressure tactic? the's the question i asked nigerians, the emirates. they said no. >> if russia walks away from the table, there will be no deal, but that begs the question, what will be opec if russia is out of the room? manus: i have heard of the existential threat for opec for as long as i have traded oil, 32 years. so what is the real risk?

is it a real dissipation of opec or just opec+? >> i think it is opec+, but are the saudis prepared to balance the market? from theget the sense prince -- do you think he is prepared to go alone and shoulder the burden of 1.5, take on that kind of size? >> i think it is a possibility, but if the saudis drop below 9 million barrels a day, if they are looking to maximize revenue, are they better off than producing at the maximum? manus: what about libya? libya has an outage of over one million barrels. mohammad: i think the market tends to think that any outage in libya is going to be a short one. arguing that this

outage is quite different. the underlying factors are very different than what we have seen in the past. my sense here is that this is going to be out for much longer. at the moment, we anticipated return of libyan barrels sometime at the end of q2. we might have to extend that. the destruction implosion analytic, you are at zero demand growth for 2020. how quickly did you get there, and who is driving the demand destruction? mohammad: we got there pretty quickly, once we started to realize that demand destruction is not a china issue or a china and neighboring countries issue. once the virus began to spread to places like italy, iran, we had to downgrade that number even further. looking at the global economy as a whole, once the imf potentially downgrades global , it suggests we have to

downgrade that number again. manus: what is my risk on the downside? mohammad: it could be significant, six dollars or seven dollars. comeof the reason opec has to meet here is a few weeks ago, there was a sense by the saudis to get something done. manus: what about the price on the upside? mohammad: two dollars or three dollars, not more. the market will look for demand indicators or demand going for the second half of the year. a lot of people have a first half, second affect in their .alances we are not sure if this gets pushed out until the end of the year. manus: thank you very much. we are waiting for the russians to arrive. think, may make vocal comments about how tough

it is for their country with sanctions and the inability to buy medicine, the inability to actually respond to the coronavirus. anna? you, on the thank oil beat at that opec+ meeting in vienna. we will be back with manus later as news breaks. talk about the markets. the stoxx 600 down by 2.5%, the ftse down 2%. we also see big movements coming in fixed income markets. the u.s. 10 year yield now firmly below the 1% level, down by 0.8% in the u.s. 10 year yield. we touch a new all-time lows on the 30 year yield. 1.6% is where we trade right now. fx markets also of interest. the dollar index down 16th the 1% as we see money going into the yen up by 4/10 of 1%.

ana from euler hermes. we are talking about the effect we are seeing at the moment on markets. is that your concern on the inflation front? you are focused on the deflationary impact of oil prices. ana: clearly, it is one of the major risks, though. at the beginning, we had an uncertainty risk, followed by the price effect and volume affect. now with oil prices hovering around $50, clearly the negative impact on oil producers, but also overall on the price effect, it will be significant. if we take at the -- take a look at the most vulnerable countries to the coronavirus outbreak, clearly to saudi arabias of this world are those that are most vulnerable.

they were in a recession in 2019, said there is a clear interest that they can cut production and support prices above $50. another point i want to make is the fact that we are living in a temporary shock. q2, early q3, we should have a recovery. we should have the stop of the containment measures and then a force in production. china is slowly coming back into business. we see the activity is still significantly below normal levels, so this obviously has a major impact on market expectations, but it is slowly coming back. we see a v-shaped recovery. there would be an upside also on oil prices at the moment. the concern is the first half. anna: yeah, whether this story

will play out in a v-shape, a u shape, or a w-shape. hermesta from euler joining us from paris. coming up, we will hear from larry kudlow later, national economic council director in the u.s., but that's this afternoon. that's at 6:30 p.m. london time. ♪

anna: welcome back.

in london, an hour and 24 minutes into the trading day which is very negative for risk assets. we see money going into the safe haven of u.s. treasuries. yield on the u.s. ten-year now below 0.8%. let's get back to ana boata. what difference does this make to your view of the world, the rate at which we see the u.s. 10 year yield come down? ana: i think the message the markets are sending is that they are worried about the size of the shock. the uncertainties seem very high, and we see a lack of economic data to be able to size the shock. we will have some data this weekend from china on trade, so we will be able to understand more, but clearly all the stock indicators show the size of the shock, at least in february, has been huge.

something that has been as big as 2009. it is clearly a sign of the market that they count on the central banks to act even more. central banks have become more dependent on the market expectations, and we have seen, with the emergency rate cuts theyweek by the fed, that -- in order to stabilize. anna: so that's your expectation. thank you for joining us. sorry to interrupt. at at you lia joining us -- euler hermes joining us. this is bloomberg.

>> welcome to bloomberg etf iq europe. we will bring you your guide to the one trillion euro market.

everything you need to know about the funds in the flow. ♪ anna: the highest daily volume in history as a single etf scenes $130 billion of trade. european etf ends the month with inflows of almost 6 billion euros. we will look at what investors are buying and selling as volatility rises. good morning, everybody. record volumes have been providing a test for the resilience of exchange traded fund markets. sawday, and etf