most of the hope is pinned on this press conference we get later. if we do not get specific targeted reports for those hit hardest, you could see a lot out. scarlet: we have the closing bell. pretty much a straight line up in the gains of about 5% for the dow, s&p, and nasdaq. the russell, 66 percent above the 20 day average. romaine: very volatile day. we talked about this earlier, we had no hundred point swings on 2018 and 2017, a pretty rare occurrence. scarlet: that is why, if you look at the move today, it is big but he does not feel as big

as previous days when it comes to losses. romaine: it is all relative. scarlet: let's check in with our reporters for more on the market action. of the day,the end some of these mega cap tech names. the new york stock exchange faang index getting a big boost. apple, the best day since 2011. overall, the new york faang index getting its best day since the beginning of january. we had this huge move down yesterday, the big bounceback today. this index may suggest or downside is ahead. the new york faang index still above the 200 day moving average. at the highs, more than 40% above the 200 day moving average.

bearish divergence, falling rsi. now we are still above that 200 day moving average. these you see some of mega cap names come down to earth, it is hard to believe a true bottom is in place. >> as the prices get set to hammer the oil companies, one corner of the industry is set to see some gains. those tanker companies up about 15%. the lower oil price makes it more profitable to actually hoard the oil and sell later. that is a boon for those tanker companies that can get vessels from their fleets. the pastof over 20% in two sessions. the msci world energy index is down almost 20% this week. let's dig into the price

action of wti crude oil. it has rebounded after a deep fall yesterday. this is after they cut pricing for april crude sales. iraq plans tothat boost exports for next month. iraq is opec's second-biggest producer. this price war between saudi arabia and russia threatens budgets. also, market values of energy companies. pricing its crude mayas cheaply as aramco, it prevent fanning the flames of the dispute. reporteracross asset katie groenefeld is here.

sandip, i will come back to you. are,,ou look at where we what is the outlook for recovery. is -- we known this is devastating. we know we have playbooks. we have a lot more stimulus coming, and don't forget, we have not tried a lot of fiscal stimulus outside of the u.s.. yields go, you have more room to conduct the fiscal stimulus. one of the byproducts is raising rates. that is not going to happen this time around. scarlet: if we do get fiscal

stimulus, is it necessarily inflationary? >> it might help normalize inflation expectations. breakeven rates have been cratering. it may help boost those levels back to normal, a less abnormal level. but it remains to be seen if that would be enough to generate inflation. central banks do not really have a playbook for generating inflation. maybe fiscal stimulus is what it takes. to take jumping in here a look at the markets. canadian stocks, their biggest jump since november of 2011. of course, the benchmark index tumbled yesterday. about centralk banks, they do not necessarily have the best track record in terms of creating inflation or

trying to facilitate that. meeting nextd week. what are you expecting them to say -- not just in terms of the policy, but what kind of message do you think we will hear from them? becomingry policy is less effective, but the fed has some bullets to expand. they meet next week. fullarkets are expecting a 100 basis points to get to zero. you will get forward guidance along the lines of we will do whatever it takes. the key to reducing this will of course be the scope of the contagion. there is already talk that opec plus is reentering into conversations. but it will be fiscal stimulus which carries the day. because rates are so low, we can

engage in more deficit spending without the ability to defect on long-term rates. scarlet: they are good at talking, engaging in conversation, maybe not so good at putting something together. when it comes to looking at oil prices and how this will play out, this could be a long time coming before we get any kind of resolution. the longer it goes, the more painful it will be. thecredit markets, high-yield sector does draw upon the energy sector. corporate credit has always been talked about as the next thing to crack in the next explosion or bear market. i cannot imagine how russia or saudi arabia would keep this going for long. the fiscal breakeven. saudi needs prices in the 90's

to run the kingdom. i know they have a surplus of cash but that is going to run out. romaine: when we look at what has happened particularly yesterday, we saw the credit --ault swap sort of a sort sort of increase. they were nowhere near what we saw back during the financial crisis, so what does that tell you? credit is one of the last markets holding up. the spreads have not blown out to the same extent as other markets. i have been talking to a lot of traditional or not traditional credit folks. they tell me they are watching the credit markets. if you see the last markets standing start to crumble, that could have contagion effects

even more so in other markets. romaine: just like that. katherine: if it was not going to happen yesterday, when is it going to happen? if this does cause a recession, if the contagion effect's tip us over into a recession, if those companies with weaker balance sheets start to not be able to -- what kind of headlines will move the market more? the number of deaths increasing like we have seen in weeks past, or fiscal stimulus. above about all of the and we just have to be vigilant. there is no quick resolution.

andnge of outcomes are huge significant. investors are incredibly skittish. the volatile nature to which that recovery happens, that will take a few weeks. this will take a few months to play out. scarlet: buyers and sellers have plenty of time. we want to thank our panelists. that does it for the closing bell. "what'd you miss?" is up next where we will be looking at how the virus will impact the u.s. education system. this is bloomberg. ♪

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romaine: live from bloomberg world headquarters in new york, i am romaine bostick. scarlet: i am scarlet fu. joe weisenthal is offered -- is off. romaine: turnaround tuesday. march madness. volatility continues to grip global markets as investors attempt to reprice a rebound. stimulus measures. voiceicans and democrats the need for quick action, but agreement on the details for what action remains elusive. school is out before summer. some universities and high schools are standing students home to prepare for virtual classes. scarlet: we turn to a bloombergs group.

president trump meeting with senators on capitol hill, telling them he wants a tax holiday through the election. dealing with the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. let's bring in bloomberg chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli by phone. we pretty much told you what we know. the details are pretty slim. but in terms of timeline, how quickly can anything happen? >> that is precisely the issue. all morning and afternoon, i have been trying to see precisely where a timeline is. they don't even know if they will be in session ahead of the recess because of all the fluidity. there is this open debate as to what is going to happen with the shale industry and whether or not there will be some kind of bailout. now, as the administration

tries to grapple with the economic reality of the coronavirus and the energy tomorrow, ir way, am told top making officials will be at the white house as they try to hash together some type of timeline. romaine: our thanks to kevin cirilli. for more analysis, we want to bring in the managing partner and director of economic policies. joining us from new orleans. we were just talking to our chief washington correspondent, this idea that washington is set to go on recess next week. this idea that congress and the fiscal policy makers in washington were getting their arms around this thing. is the market sort of overestimating?

>> i think that people have forgotten that congress needs to pass legislation to change any tax policy and the president cannot do that unilaterally. i have been speaking with staff for the past two weeks, obviously trying to figure out where they are with coronavirus, asking if i should use the current calendar to predict when a deadline exists? the answer i have gotten from leadership is they are getting calls from members saying, we don't want to be flying right now. we do not want to be in the crowded halls of congress. so let's disband. as kevin mentioned, maybe even theutside of session until easter recess. all of the conversations we are having is that any legislation would be weeks if not months away. scarlet: outside of washington until after easter.

is there any way for congress to conduct its business remotely or virtually? >> they can. they could call in if they wanted to. there are robust restrictions against that. i asked whether that would be suspended in the senate, where you have a lot of older senators and they are flying back and forth. suspending that requirement is you have opened those floodgates. sometimes, congress does not want to vote, so they have a hard and fast rule that if they are not physically in town, they cannot vote. romaine: you are dragging me down. political issue. talking about a life-and-death situation. this is really about the safety or the perceived safety of people like you and me. let's talk about some of the

policy prescriptions and assume that congress might actually want to get on a plane. what sort of policy proposals do you think would have the best chance of getting past? >> the pieces with the most support right now, the most cemented plans that have a lot of popularity in the business sector and congress is the plan that the democrats should be unrolling as soon as tonight. given the very problematic timeline we just walked through, they think they can have this finalized and ready by thursday. that plan would provide unemployment insurance benefits, which would be about 30 put in dollars for a year. -- $30 billion for a year. it would provide paid sick leave. it would create potentially expanded childcare tax credits to help those families that have to have more childcare.

a massive infrastructure spending package. the democrats rolled out a package back in december. they would love to see that implemented. tell you iscy i can not going to pass is the payroll tax cut. they are pushing a 0% payroll tax. i just did the math, the payroll tax cut to 0% would amount to a bailout bigger than tarp. i think the odds of happening would be very low. scarlet: i want to bring in some comments that the blackrock vice-chairman made today, calling for policymakers to step up. >> whether we have the u.s. leadership that we did have in 2008 to sort this out, that is the big question. concerns that the

sort of sits over the whole system. where is the leadership? where is the u.s. leadership? scarlet: you were in washington in 2008. when we talk about the different measures that congress could take, you did not mention anything about specific bailouts or rescues of industries. what is the appetite for something like that for, say, the airline industry or the restaurant industry? fx i would say it is extremely not -- extremely low. i think there are a couple senators, including one , whonent one from utah would tell you he does not want to take those votes again. specific sector bailouts are not what american voters are particularly inclined to endorse. you can see tax deferments,

small-scale steps targeted at those industries and their employees, but a wholesale bailout is not realistic. what could move the needle? are we waiting for some sort of impact to show up in hard economic data? are we waiting for other countries to do stimulus? is there anything here that would push things along a little bit faster? >> it is the correct way to think about it. the we go back to tarp and recession, it takes months, weeks, sometimes years to pass. we did not get the american recovery and reinvestment act until 2009. there are very slow-moving factors. complicating this is the fact

that the administration is trying to downplay how severe the coronavirus outbreak is. anle they are responding on immediate basis, trying to get ahead of the economic data, that is not how folks on capitol hill respond. it takes a long time to have a handle on the scope of the problem. tos will not be limited cruise ships. it will be a restaurants, anyone with seasonal retail workers. certain geographical locations will be hit harder than others. they are just not close to wrapping their minds around it, let alone developing a policy response. scarlet: will have more with henrietta talking a little bit more about the impact on campaigns and the primary in michigan. this is bloomberg. ♪ . ♪

nominee the democratic race for u.s. president. joe biden looking to widen his lead over print sanders -- over bernie sanders in the delegate count. kind of a biguess night. we saw the momentum that joe biden picked up. the question is whether he can continue that momentum and lock away this nomination. what are you hearing with regards to his chances? henrietta: an interesting headline just crossed that the republican mayor in michigan in the fourth largest city in the state has just abandoned

president trump and supported joe biden. i strongly suspect he will be the nominee. we have had 70% odds of that happening since january based on a couple of factors that are now long gone in history. what i -- when i encourage investors to watch right now is voter turnout. then larger in some states 2016. in some states, it is larger than 2008, which is a race that ushered president obama into the white house. that is the direction this is going. scarlet: the momentum is clearly on joe biden's side. showing here in blue 53% odds for a democrat winning. odds for a republican, namely president trump, coming down to 50%.

clearly, momentum is on the democrats side. his momentum peaking a little too early? the president has a lot of time to see the economy recover and make some good inroads when it comes to the market and livelihood. >> this is a pretty incredible game of chicken. you have the democrats very focused on coronavirus. in the aftermath of that daily job support, there were immediate concerns out of the fight in campaign, how do we keep this going? 36 hoursous showing in or so. coronavirus could either be something that helps the democrats or something that helps president trump if it really does evaporate, it could help with president trump's election, but we think it will be joe biden.

scarlet: thank you. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

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[ whines ] can your internet do that? xfinity xfi can because it's... ...simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] with i'm mark crumpton bloomberg's word news. vice president mike pence says insurance companies have agreed to cover co-pays for coronavirus testing drugs. the vice president made his comments today at the white house during a meeting with president trump and insurance company ceos. this comes as the administration tries to respond to the growing in the unitedd-19 states. the president says he does not need to be tested for the coronavirus, even after being in

contact with republicans who .ave quarantined themselves the president says he feels fine. he says there are no symptoms, no anything. the white house doctor said there was not a reason for him to be tested. trump: the biggest thing we did was stopping the inflow of people early on. other people mostly probably would not have done it until now. that has made a big difference. mark: mark meadows, the republican what that republican and north carolina, -- they said they entered self imposed quarantine. troops are heading to the suburb

of new rochelle, which has about 100 cases of the virus. governor cuomo says the national guard will seal schools, houses of worship, and other places. crews will also help clean surfaces and deliver food. on thursday, the census bureau will begin mailing out notices. there has been a u.s. census every decade since 1790. the results determine how many congressional seats each state gets and how federal spending is distributed. the united nations human rights chief expressed concern today over the arrest and detainment of political opponents in venezuela. and an one lawmaker assistant had been detained "without end of 2019

the intention being fully known." they have documented recent attacks on the opposition and journalists by security forces. venezuelan opposition president aido is backed by nearly 60 foreign nations. the opposition leader claims presidential power, saying that maduro wasicolas elected in a fraudulent vote. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i'm mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. romaine: banking and financial stocks having their best day since 2011. that is coming off one of their worst days yesterday. let's bring in the head of equity strategy. gerard cassidy.

they were a man of many hats. banks, talk about obviously the business model is predicated on borrowing at lower rates and lending in higher long-term rates. i know that is a simplification. but have seen that gap narrow between short-term and long-term yields. what are you seeing? wellthink you summed it up i think it is very straightforward. banks take in deposits and make loans. they obviously like to fund those loans with lower cost deposits and higher-yielding loans. today, the flat of the yield curve. the industry does better in a steeper yield curve environment. you saw the 10 year rise.

yesterday, we saw the plummet in the 10 year bond yield. that really very important we do have a steeper yield curve. again next week and we start to see the long end , that curve creep up would be positive for the bank's margins. the yields on the loans do better for me steeper yield curve. scarlet: so, steeper yield curve generally better for the banks. we know that mortgage rates are starting to come down. that should in theory spawn a wave of mortgage refinancing. is it too early to put together numbers on what that means for morgan stanley, wells fargo, bank of america? a veryink you identified

interesting development. refinances in residential mortgages are off the charts. they cannot handle the volume. there are so many calls coming in. what does that mean for the banks? that means the revenues will be very strong probably well into the second half of the year. we are starting to see wider spreads develop because the banks cannot handle the volume, so they are raising the rates slightly higher than they would have. you have to remember that the larger commercial banks. america,, bank of morgan stanley, the trading volumes in equities are very high. the derivatives business is very strong.

it is challenging for the margins, but there are feet-based businesses benefiting and see that show up. scarlet: bloomberg reporting that jp morgan and citigroup have each added nearly half a billion in revenue from that this year. romaine: i feel like some of this could balance itself out. onn you look at the values some of these stocks, valuing financials at below what the value is. do you think it is a little extreme that the stocks got oversold here? >> i do. we are not in the camp that is calling for a recession. we do anticipate that in the second half of the year, the u.s. will snap act. investor and you

think we are heading into a recession this year, then the stocks may not be oversold. we are in the camp that this coronavirus works its way through the united states as everyone expects, then the economy benefits from the pent-up demand that will be created in the second half of the year. scarlet: we know that executives are heading to washington tomorrow. what is the message they need to send and what is the message mr. trump will likely hear from them? x they are going to say to the president, because of this increased volatility, there is an assumption that there could be some liquidity issues. the markets are functioning very well. the pipes are clear.

the money is running through them. there are some folks who are concerned that because we have these enormous swings in our market, that there will be a liquidity problem. i think they will offer voices of encouragement that the system is working. it is very volatile. but as we work through this period, we will look back and i thek be really pleased with way the market and banking system handled this volatility. romaine: thank you for being with us. coming up here on this program, we will be talking about the xerox-hp takeover. we will talk to one of those xerox nominees, coming up next. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

♪ romaine: time for a look at what stories are trending. aboutal users are reading occidental, which has cut its dividend. the company trimmed its quarterly payout to 11 cents from 79. a story on joe biden, who pushed back on a michigan voter who challenged him on gun rights. the voter said that he is trying to take away our guns. by then talked about his own ownership of shotguns. onre is an online petition

the future of coachella and whether that should be canceled. the music festival takes place in palm springs, a popular retirement community. the fire -- the virus is dangerous to the elderly. the u.s.let's turn to dollar. the greenback surging against on japanese yen as they bet fiscal stimulus. deutsche bank chief strategist wrote that the currency move is, "unlikely to be sustained once we get new details of the plan. for more on the dollar and it's strange weakness of late, we have been seeing a risk off move. we saw the stampede into treasuries. on top of that, you have an oil

shock. and dollar has really not seen the strength. >> there is an inverse berelation so this could great for the dollar. in the u.s., people by dollars as a shelter. the fact that you have seen a different attitude this time is because people need to rethink the notion of american exceptionalism. the state sorted out its banks in a way that the rest of the world did not and was therefore able to normalize monetary policy. romaine: people have tried to rethink american exceptionalism before and they have usually been wrong. what is different this time?

>> what is different this time is the belief for tangible fear that we will see monetary policy going back down. on have seen the japanificati of europe. there is now a tangible fear of the europeanization of america. shale is a big reason why the region has outplayed the rest of the world. to bring that into question, plainly there is more reason to fear for the future of shale than there was a week ago. much stronger in the eyes of the european banks, but

we are below book value, a sign that people are nervous about it. romaine: the book value, that is actually lower than where we were during some of those issues during the financial crisis. i am told this is not a financial crisis. trade-off we thought we made in 2008 in return for a more dynamic sector that won't make as much money, it will be safer. america has not had the extreme problems that the eurozone has had. the reason we are seeing that kind of volatility, including a big jump today, greater volatility and negativity toward the dollar seems to be because the big notion of american exceptionalism is coming into question.

scarlet: this does not happen month and years. the trade might be accounting for the dollar weakness as well. john: true. part of the reason you would unwind the euro carry trade is because american rates are going down. that makes you less likely to hold dollars. it is a technical factor but it is tighter very much iia fundamental one. fundamental to a one. today's deals report, xerox is in the market trying to raise cash for the biggest hostile takeover in years. kim, one of the 12

nominees to go on the hp board from xerox. what will you do differently from the current members? >> i have no comment on what i do in terms of the operations of hp. think wei would do, i would engage with xerox on a discussion of whether accommodation makes sense. >> they rejected the offers. they have given detailed reasons why. do you think they were wrong to reject? kim: yes. i think they have not done due diligence on xerox. they hasn't -- they have not engaged. i think they can find out, what with the capital structures look like, the value? all of those things are up in the board. the things they said be

damaging about this bid, do you disagree with them? leverage on the company. kim: xerox believes that we would still be investment grade after the transaction. if you look at xerox predictions, in 2023, the 2x.rage would be >> what about the characterization of xerox as a company that needs the deal to survive. >> i have said comments myself but i never meant them when i said them. it is not a desperate company. it has management that is quite skilled at negotiating desperate times. i would not call the current times at xerox desperate times. total shareholder return in the

last year of almost 100%. i think this team knows how to manage. theoretical situation, you get onto the hp board, do you get excited about $24 per share? kim: i would have to be inside hp to get a sense of that. but i would say, as a shareholder, $18.40 in cash, that is higher than before the announcement, and half the company. i think it is a no lose. >> let's talk about the cash piece. do they have the financing? would that change in this market? >> i think xerox confirms that they are still in the.

>> if you look from the outside, bearing in mind the complexities of running a business like that, what gives you the confidence that you would indeed be a better director? i don't want to personalize this. they are all capable people. >> you will have to replace one of them. kim: probably the weakest. it is clear that i have a different philosophical approach. if i would insist that hpv -- that hp be run differently. i would say, they have made an overture, looked to engage in discussions, and industry that needs consolidation. >> deal at all costs? kim: it can't be. when you go on a board, you have

a fiduciary responsibility. you are on the board, which represents the owners. a bit of a string puller here, what engagement have you had personally with him? >> zero. i met him 30 years ago. i have not spoken to him since. i don't think he can pick me out of a lineup. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

earlyt: school is out this year for some students. harvard tells students not to return after spring break because of the coronavirus. they are looking to transition to virtual classes for all courses by march 23. i feel like the schools that have figured out online learning have a leg up in this.

>> stanford did this last week. it is very robust on their website how to do this for students, teachers. harvard i expect is the same way. as you get down the food chain to smaller colleges, they may not be as equipped but if this were 10 years ago, they would be in trouble. a lot of professors are already doing these online courses. the discussions are in the classroom with the professor. romaine: how about some things like hard sciences, things were you need labs? is figuringverybody it out right now. i think it is a tough decision to make. part of college is going to clubs, attending sporting events. they are making tough decisions, trying to be proactive rather than dealing with students

coming down with this. scarlet: of course, there are students in colleges and they will all stay-at-home, driving their own parents crazy. if you have college campuses empty and a lot of college towns. >> you look at some of these colleges, they are in small towns. that is what people love about them. the local deli, the local businesses that really survive on college kids. maybe they are hosting a sporting event or conference. romaine: what about those sporting events? obviously, the ncaa tournament is supposed to kick. ask that is under discussion. will they play with no spectators? decisiont is a tough

for everybody but they have to do what they think will keep everyone safe. scarlet: thank you so much. that does it for "what'd you miss?." liver tech is next. this is bloomberg. ♪ tv just keeps getting better.

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♪ emily: i'm emily chang in san francisco and this is "bloomberg technology." the head of the u.s. centers for disease control says the time is past to contain the virus in certain states. signals the president stimulus may be coming, but when and for whom. and president bush's former comers