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tv   Bloomberg Daybreak Europe  Bloomberg  March 13, 2020 2:00am-3:00am EDT

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matt: good morning from berlin. these are today's top stories. -- thursday.y >> the worst session since 1987 brings an end to the longest market on run as markets headed for the worst week since the financial crisis. the u.s. nears an agreement on a bill to combat level of the coronavirus. the ecb unveils stimulus to fight the outbreak but not enough to calm the markets. epidemic of the century. emmanuel macron says the ecb will have to try harder to
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combat the outbreak as france closes schools. new york city declares a state of emergency as the death toll approaches 5000. ♪ investors fear that emergency packages will not be enough to stave off a recession. that showed in european and u.s. sessions yesterday. saw their worst day of all time. wall street showed its biggest crash since 1987. here is a look at just how bad it was. drops, the likes of which i have never seen, on individual equity indexes.
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the dax is down 12%. the ftse in milan is down almost 17% in a one-day session. it seemed to all be sparked by donald trump's travel ban and then made worse by the ecb decision. jones look at the dow industrial average, the most famous global index. circuit breakers were set off again yesterday and this was the biggest drop. since 1987.nts the s&p 500 is down 9.5%, as was the nasdaq. doterms of price action, we see a bounceback in terms of futures. you see ftse futures are up more than 3%.
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the 10 year yield is gaining a little bit in terms of yields. crude still at 33.63. russia is doubling down on sticking with supply increases. but you can see it falling. gold is seen as a real safe haven, but when you have such massive drops and a market crash , you often see gold selloff because investors need to get liquidity to meet their margin calls. let's get over to maria, senior multi-asset strategist at state street, and laura cooper joins us on set from london. what caused yesterday's market
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crash? the market is correct in panic. -- gripped in panic. the market containment is still long to come. second, we want a quarter better response for policymakers. -- coordinated response from policymakers. matt: emmanuel macron does not think it is enough. the central bank here in europe is making matters worse with its decision. >> markets are certainly
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reacting negatively, but they are limited in their capacity to have that shock and moment. -- that shocking moment. we saw dual interest rates come through, so that is meant to propel borrowing through banks and that was quite a positive sign. but markets did not see the cut they were expecting, so this does pin on the need for broader fiscal stimulus. so we do expect to see more of that coming from the fed, because it's clear we are going to need to see monetary policy come from them. matt: why didn't lagarde cut yesterday? sure, yes,entirely it's a nice symbolic gesture -- matt: people were expecting 20
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points but it's all the same when rates are negative. it would be almost like an invitation for the italian government to start spending more aggressively and then have the ecb helping out with ecb spreads. to us, that was probably more of a disappointment. say isng i would like to what they have done is not nothing. not as much as the market expected, but in terms of , therting the economy tltro's and the banking measures, it is quite useful. time,l probably take some but it will be useful and work,
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it just takes longer. matt: christine lagarde said it is not her job to watch spreads. what do you think? from the fedscott was pretty much to protect financial stability and we know that we have this post connection between financial markets and we know all the perils. say it's not explicitly their job, but implicitly definitely. matt: when you look at the issues hitting markets, i get the feeling equity investors testingeenly aware that in countries like the u.s. and germany is not enough to spread the stem of this virus.
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ban, donald trump's travel seemed to royal markets even further, especially as it was not accompanied by real stimulus . what else needs to be changed? >> we will have to see the with sizableme in measures to try and contain this. the european commission is very focused on a single issue whereas we are not yet seeing the measures to mitigate the spread. as well as they had small business assistance, but that is not likely enough. creditly need to see injected into the companies and more testing kits. it's worth pointing out that the moves we have seen in the market
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point to significant, a brokenness because of this lack of liquidity and what is meant to be the world's most liquid did have toe fed come in with repo operations and is likely we will need to see further stimulus from the fed. this is really crucial at this stage. matt: thanks for joining us, laura. us, our guestth cohost for the hour. let's get the latest from asia and europe. juliette saly is in singapore, rick maria tadeo is in russell's. brussels. the asian session does not look good. it doesn't, but i wants to
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start with the remarkable turnaround. the government has come through with the suggestion that any congregation of more than 500 should not go ahead. it seemed to give a boost the government stimulus package earlier in the week. have a look at the nikkei closing, at one point down by 10%. it looked like it was going to pair those losses quite significantly but it has been sold off. india is one to watch, because after trading was halted. we also had circuit breakers coming through. those indices tumbled on the open.
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beenig picture has terrible for asian stocks and looks like the index is going to ,ound out the week down by 13% the worst week for asian stocks since 2008. as we look at similarities between black monday perhaps it is also black friday here. matt: let's get over to maria in brussels. so much hope was put into the ecb yesterday to stop this crash and the decision only seemed to exacerbate the drops in equities . what are you hearing? maria: that's exactly right. if you look at the move yesterday, it was brutal. what's really interesting is that press conference by christine lagarde which set my ,ob is not to narrow spreads
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though it has attention between institutions that need to work together. macron sayingel europe should do whatever it coronavirus,t the also saying i do not think what the central bank did is enough. he is also hinting he is is expecting more to come from central banks. the key is the italian establishment, very vocal and outspoken in their criticism today. italy commented that they were duty and saying that christine lagarde does have the to maintain stability in the european union. matt: thanks very much for that round up.
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we are going to continue to cover that reaction to the ecb. coming up, as ecb stimulus measures failed to appease to former we speak ecb chief economist peter print. and we speak to the ceo of the insurance firm reports full-year earnings at 6:30. ceo ofn we speak to the the world's largest carmaker. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> the spread of the coronavirus adds a new and substantial source of downside risk to the global growth.
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it will have a significant impact on economic activity. in particular, it will slow down production as a result of disrupted supply chain and reduce domestic and foreign demand. comprehensivea package of monetary policy measures. we will make use of all of the flexibilities embedded in the framework of the asset purchase program. i really would like all of us to join forces. in an ambitious and coordinated fiscal policy response is required to support businesses and workers at risk. that was ecb president christine lagarde speaking after the central bank held rates unchanged, instead, promising to
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buy more bonds and beef up a loan program. however, it did little to appease markets. investors dumped assets after the decision with shares falling the most in all-time. in a rare move, both france and italy hit out at the package emmanuel macron said the measures are not enough while italy's prime minister said the central bank's task is not quote to hinder but to facilitate. joining us now is the former ecb chief economist peter praet. was she like her point is not there to answer to markets but doesn't the ecb need to pay attention to markets when equity indexes are posting the biggest crash on record?
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peter: indeed, that is always in the minds of monetary policymakers. people quote the whatever it takes of mario draghi, let's not forget it was proceeded by the head of states and governments. had some wait until he signals from policymakers about the deepening of the union. what is different in the script of what happened yesterday is the signals from other authorities were quite weak. what we needed is such signals would have been given for the press conference of christine lagarde. you need a coherent response. in her communication, it was
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quite a difficult, because she did not have the signals mario had. that's a big difference. now they are trying to correct it. i hope the macron declaration will be followed by signaling from politicians. i guess berlin is one of the voices you are not hearing. we have reported that merkel's government is ready to abandon that black zeros, its policy of not going into deficit. when do you expect to hear from berlin? peter: things are moving rapidly. my understanding is that there will be a strong signal. i think it hope it will be followed by key countries like germany.
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that is a bit what happened yesterday. i think the package of the ecb is quite strong if you think about credit and banking channels. i think the communication issue came about credit spreads and not sovereigns. markethe reaction of the and i can understand that. but to really have an action on sovereign spreads, you need a very strong signal from politicians about solidarity. not only the central bank can do it alone. even an asset purchase program has limited impact on spreads if it is not backed in general. it is not only mario draghi that did whatever it takes, it's the support of political bodies at that time. matt: absolutely. i heard a lot of concern
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yesterday about small businesses that only have enough liquidity to survive one month or two and are not sophisticated to access financial instruments like tltro's. what needs to be done to stave off a wave of failures in such businesses? >> seeing what was communicated yesterday in france, it is a benchmark of what has to be done in other countries. basically, you deal with government guarantees and the combination of central-bank provisions. are the banks of the sme's and government guarantees. none of these measures are being taken today. is ais lacking now coherent communication to the market as well as the national
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and european levels. was the unfortunate lack of strong signals vis-a-vis italy. italy has major shocks, other countries are in the same situation quite soon and i think the coherent response of government is something that was lacking. christine lagarde had this problem in the press conference because she started in an environment where the fiscal response was quite weak, actually. that has been the problem. matt: can i quickly ask you about the u.s.? is there concern that a fumbled response to this epidemic with measures such as a travel ban or a lack of testing equipment and preparedness turns it into a financial and economic crisis? peter: yes, i think it is a real
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issue. today is the chinese in china, the epidemic is more than it seems. sequence whereof it goes from one continent to the other. now, it is europe and the next would be the u.s.. that is the market perception. reaction,ave a strong we heard australia turn in the market quite rapidly. inability tois come with strong signals to control the disease. considerrkets would the relatively temporary shocks, these measures would be sufficient. if you go from one continent to the other, the crisis will stretch for a time.
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there is little that central banks can do about this. the signals we got from the u.s. it was too weak in most european countries. important, and is what is needed. matt: peter, thank you for your time. peter: was a former chief economist at the ecb. coming up, nowhere to hide. are failing when investors need the most. we have your chart that matters. this is bloomberg. ♪ matt: matt: matt:.
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i am matt miller in berlin. ,s global equities plunge hedges are getting battered as well.
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here with your details is dani burger. dani: simply put, bonds are supposed to mitigate losses, but if you had a balanced portfolio and own stocks and bonds, you are seeing some of the worst returns on record. i have the combined performance of the s&p 500 and the elongated treasury bond. it's our record losses around 9% yesterday and the day before more than 8%. essentially, diversification is failing. low at 1%rched from a earlier. one.e this it essentially says that what happens is if diversification fails and you sell everything, correlation rises. i'm going to guess is way
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up there. danny, thanks so much. dani, thanks so much. coming up, we speak with the generali ceo. ♪ hi! we're glad you came in, what's on your mind?
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can you help keep these guys protected online? easy, connect to the xfi gateway. what about internet speeds that keep up with my gaming? let's hook you up with the fastest internet from xfinity. what about wireless data options for the family? of course, you can customize and save. can you save me from this conversation? that we can't do, but come in and see what we can do. we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. ask. shop. discover. at your local xfinity store today. matt: good morning from berlin.
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daybreak.oomberg: black thursday, the worst wall street session and's 1987 brings an end to the longest bull market on record. global equities have their worst week since the global financial crisis. the u.s. nears an agreement on a bill to combat the economic blow of the virus. the ecb unveils stimulus measures to fight the outbreak, but none of it is enough to calm markets. and epidemic of the century. ecbnuel macron says the will have to try harder to combat the outbreak.
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new york city declares a state of emergency at the death toll approaches 5000. ♪ investors fear emergency packages will not be enough to stave off a recession. that showed in europe and in the u.s. sessions, as well as the asian sessions. broader european stocks saw their worst day in history and wall street had is worse today since 1987. here's a look at just how bad it was. the drops on the individual index rsis i have never seen before. fell more, the dax
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than 12%. thousands wiped out in a one day session. 3000 wiped out in milan. almost 17%.l jones industrial average fell 2352 points, a drop of 10%. circuit breakers are set off and won't allow much more this morning we do see stocks trading slightly higher in terms of equity index futures. asia, fore stocks in example australia turning higher and index futures pointing higher. example, posting
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futures up 3%. futures that i believe are up as well. joining us to discuss is bloomberg's juliette saly in singapore. off.t, you kick things you saw some big swings in australia. >> an absolutely wild day in asia as we woke up to wall street. herew a number of markets triggering those circuit breakers. today.trades all halted you can see the sensex is flat after being down more than 10% before closing lower. 3.4% korea only up by after being down before the circuit breaker was triggered.
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down bya is remarkable, 8% at one point. the australian government came through with measures to calm sentiment. they're saying any congregation should not go ahead and you saw a turnaround in the afternoon session, the wildest swing on record. thanks very much. you are looking at currency market volatility. what do you see? >> usually, we see market volatility be much more elevated but that's not what's happening. hurt eme war really currencies the most but this virus seems to be having a concentrated impact on developed markets. then we have central banks
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pushing around market currencies. it means that g7 volatility is higher than em. volatility is only a 2018 high. interesting indeed we typically see during a market crash, gold sold off because investors need liquidity. annmarie: you know it is bad when even golds setting -- selling off. given these concerns about liquidity and a recession, you can see it clearly. investors are looking for came dollar, bedding it is only -- the only true safety net. can see how quickly we saw gold selling off.
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thanks very much for your time. we are going to continue to keep a very close eye on the developments in this market as futures point higher. the global head of fundamental equities. seniorith us is maria, multi-asset strategist at state street. with you and what you make of yesterday's crash and how markets will behave going forward. markets eventually will go up again. the first question to ask is how far more will they come down. question ishird whether it really holds the key to all the other answers.
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what i believe we are going to need is policy action. but policy action not from central banks. the ecb has shown that whatever they do, the market expects. policy action we need is really from government. for fiscaln waiting policy for 10 years and it has to come through. it is not policy reaction we need, but policy prevention. we are not seeing widespread testing for the disease or ,nough health care support availability in hospitals. i'm very worried about the ability of u.s. authorities to respond to this.
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to thatget in reaction is a lot of closures of school and economies. the more we get that, more we are closer to a recession and that would mean a poor showing for global equities. u.s. tested roughly 11,000 people during the entirety of the outbreak well south korea is testing tend to 20,000 people each day. frankly, it looks like the u.s. and germany don't have enough tests either. geta, do you expect that we , butind of policy reaction also prevention we are seeing called for? >> i suspect so. describe is we can
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reaching some sort of riot point. markets are forcefully pushing policymakers to do more and more . if we look back to previous , when there was a successful resolution of prices, it did take time. it is not done on the first day and it takes time to fight the crisis. get somethingll similar to what we had in china. to prevent the crisis, draconian measures were taken and they i think we so far probably go down that road, the question is when. writing -- in this
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rioting state and we will continue to see some downside but until we see some containment, they will probably be an opportunity to buy. boris johnson said he does not expect a peak for 10-14 weeks. the u.k. is spending a lot of money. is that how long it will take us to see a market bottom? >> it really depends on what will happen going forward. there are two events i am concerned about that will potentially bring markets to new lows. the first is on the high-yield credit side. energy in the united states is case in point. the second is what happens with the spread of the disease, particularly in the u.s..
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see those two elements out there, then i think there are better points to enter for the market. matt: thanks so much for joining us. us guest cohost stays with for the hour. we are going to be speaking to the ceo of generali and just moments. they have come out with full-year earnings and a dividend of $.96 a share. operating profit is rising 6.9% to 5.1 9 billion, almost in line with estimates. they say they cannot reasonably estimate the midterm impact. ceoll nonetheless ask the what he expects from these developments and how he sees the
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situation as it is now. don't miss that interview. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> i think given the violence and dislocation in the market, i would think that in the s&p 500 easily have another 10% down. >> you can make an argument there will be a decent floor. across asset investing is back in a state where there are opportunities. >> what is rational for every fund manager becomes irrational for the market as a whole. it is going to get worse before it gets better. some of our top guests reacting to the market turmoil.
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fellrday, the dow jones the most since 1987 on black monday. the stoxx 600 index here fell the most ever. as italy moves into total lockdown mode, generali reports full-year earnings, saying it cannot estimate the impact of the virus in the near-term. however, the firm says it is in a strong position to face the virus after posting full-year profits. discuss is the ceo of generali. let me get your assessment of the situation as it is now. we are already far into the crisis, certainly in italy. how does it look? i think the situation is
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quite serious. it's something all of us need to take seriously. at the same time, we should avoid any kind of panic. governments are taking the necessary steps, especially the italian government with the first one in europe taking andng measures to contain limit the contagion. efficient it will be and slow down the number of as you know, france took more important measures to limit the contagion as well. expert.an
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i don't think we are reaching the peak of the contagion, but at some point we will. implement the decisions being taken by the government's. health and insurance issues aside, the you expect the economy in europe falls into a recession? crisis face not only a from the coronavirus in terms of the human cost, but also a financial and economic crisis? short-term, there is a negative impact, especially on retail and tourism. airlines, definitely.
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governments will have to take significant decisions to sustain the economy, the small and medium companies could be in trouble. so the short term problems will of theed by the support governance. medium-term and longer-term, if the virus crisis does not last too long, if we implement with discipline the efforts to reduce contagion, quite soon we could start recovering. definitely, the growth of european countries and others as
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well out of europe will be impacted by the coronavirus crisis. matt: let me ask about your business. plan to grow earnings per share percent annually. policyll have dividend that has not been changed. when we see things like the mobile world congress canceled or soccer matches being held in the stadiums -- in empty stadiums, does not want you -- does not that make you want to revise targets down? results are very solid and make us in the position to cope with this challenging environment.
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it is too early to measure the 2020t on our business in our business is very solid. our business is very resilient, because what people are not moneynow to invest their they will do later. so our business can be delayed, but it will not be reduced. by the way, the portfolio is still there and still producing strong earnings and strong results. concernedery much about our target. reason as of today to change our targets. going to look carefully at the impact of the crisis and
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update our strategy, if needed. but looking at our strategic and it is still very valid i'd consider it that we will be able to reach our targets in 2020. obviously, we need to support our people and our sales distribution. as i said regarding the new there is a delay on the business and may jeopardize our ability to achieve our target. matt: thanks for your time. ceo of generali talking to us about the situation. know get what you need to today. the global market losses were unprecedented. joining us to discuss is dani burger. the: yesterday alone,
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world's richest 500 people lost $331 billion. that means they are headed for a nearly $1 trillion loss. was the lvmhosses chairman who lost 9.5 billion followed by jeff bezos. this ends the decade of soaring stocks that really helped these wealthy amass those riches. but the pandemic fears obliterate are those gains. mobileahoma fracking lost half of his net worth from that drop in oil. but how did the wealthiest react? privateseen a spike in jets and an exodus to secluded homes. further taking a look at the wealthiest, you can see that as well on your bloomberg.
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coming up, a flat or a loft year? that is how one strategist is describing the s&p 500 for 2020 as some indexes fall back to levels we saw them. your morning call is next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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matt: this is bloomberg daybreak: asia europe. maria from state street is still with us. what should we expect? you have made it clear you want to see some kind of policy reaction from the governments in europe. how long do you think that is going to take? the more markets rise, the more they collapse, the we get.
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markets are forcing policy outon to be increasingly coming. matt: a little later, annmarie hordern will show us the last year. seen marketsu have fall down to levels commensurate with the end of 2018. what does this kind of wealth due to investors and animal spirits? 401(k)s,le look at finding they've lost 33% of their retirement savings, how they react? >> you probably get to campus. there is despair and agreed. the famous quote, you buy when there is blood in the street.
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given the very huge moves potentially coming with the big selloff and lots of policy response, is probably going to get very disproportionate. matt: thanks very much.
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anna: good morning. welcome. we're live from our european headquarters. time anna edwards alongside matt miller. matt: good morning. today, the markets say is the storm over? futures show signs of yesterday's brutal route is easing, but europe as a whole looks mixed. the cash trade is an hour away. ♪ matt:

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