tv Bloomberg Markets Bloomberg March 18, 2020 6:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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to ""bloomberg markets."." shery: i'm shery ahn and bloomberg's world headquarters in new york. we are counting down to china's major market open. paul: here are the top stories we are covering in the next hour. president trump invokes special powers to boost u.s. virus intervention and prevention as global infection cases top 200,000. the apb holds an inch -- an
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emergency meeting. a chinese pharma company wins approval for human testing of a vaccine. governments around the world starting restrictions to slow the outbreak. the virus threatens to weaken china's economy even further. our review of the latest for the slowest and the end of the cultural revolution in 1975. shery: let's get you started with a quick check of the markets close. it was another down day. the rebound we saw in the previous session, we are talking about the s&p 500 and dow and nasdaq all going down the s&p 500, every sector was in the red. energy was the biggest decliner. oil sinking to a 19 year low. when it comes to the dow, losses of about 36% since the peak in february. we continue our way down. we've heard about a second stimulus package coming from the trump administration. this was after the close ended
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during the trading session. we saw volatility circuit breakers also being. possibly another down day. asian stocks and futures trying to climb. we have taiwan, philippines, indonesia on tap. rate cuts expected with falling oil making inflation less of a headache for these policymakers. sharesr australian forming for the asx 200. keeping a close eye on australian banks as the government is considering loan guarantees. given the surging strike seen in the u.s. dollar, the yen is trading above 108. offshore yuan is at october lows. mounting risk for the chinese economy. keeping a close eye on cable, slumping to 1980 five levels wearing about a london lockdown adding to that pressure. we have the aussie dollar
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languishing by at 2003 lows, trading below 60 as we are waiting for the rba inter-moving announcement, which may bring it on top of rate cuts. -- aussie bonds are moving ahead of this. 10 year to a tenure high. trump'shis as president second virus relief bill has been cleared as lawmakers rushed to follow up with a package that will cost $1.3 trillion. republican and democratic leaders are working on the details of the scale of that proposal, which could include $500 billion in cash handouts and loans to the airline sectors. let's go to max, who covers health care, biotech, and pharma. give us more on the details, and more importantly, trying to get a hold -- starting to control
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this public health crisis. what do we know about the testing capacity in the u.s.? it seems we don't have our bloomberg opinion columnist. but as i mentioned earlier, we have seen these measures coming from the trump in order to try to handle the coronavirus outbreak. we are talking about a second major bill. this was passed by the house, already being passed by the senate. president trump has to sign it into law. what the measure will provide is paid sick leave, food assistance, not to mention, help for virus testing. haidi: the question for the markets is the missing fundamental, which is knowing when we are potentially going to see a peak in global infections. there is no indication we are close to having that certainty
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yet. let's get the latest on that part of the world. it now surpassed china in numbers of coronavirus cases and deaths as countries around the world struggle to cope. ecb policy makers an emergency call to discuss their response to the pandemic. let's bring in roslyn matheson on the phone from london. what is the latest when it comes to the situation in europe? >> we now have the news that europe has surpassed china in the number of confirmed cases of the virus and deaths. most of those still clustered in italy. including the u.k. and in paris, which sees ever more drastic decisions by policymakers, in terms of travel, blockades, and social distancing. the government now announced schools will in fact close. they had been holding out on
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that for some weeks, despite pressure to act. we also had the german chancellor using a very unusual tell address and -- television address calling on people to stay strong and invoking world war ii language, saying it is the biggest challenge to germany since. the british have said they have their government in essentially wartime footing. you see those rallying cries spreading across europe from governments and people to take action. shery: the german chancellor also backing down from their usual balanced-budget approach. what do we see, in terms of fiscal action? >> we see more stimulus packages coming up from individual countries, but also the prospect of more united action from europe as a whole. that's where it becomes paramount, because angela merkel is the one who had been reticent to allowing governments to bump the budget. the ecb governing council meeting tonight.
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it has finished, but we are waiting for the outcome. they will make an announcement about possibly asset purchases. we were told they were thinking about activating a bailout fund, which could pave the way for them to buy more bonds. certainly, we are seeing a shift in germany, which is paramount to allow countries to start to spend a lot more and dip into debt to do so. shery: our international government executive editor, thank you. let's get back to the u.s., the senate has cleared the virus as lawmakers rush for a package that will cost $1.3 trillion. we are joined by max neeson, who covers health care, biotech, and pharma. give us more details on what's happening with testing, that seems to be crucial in controlling the outbreak. >> the good news on that front
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is after weeks, where u.s. testing has been badly behind, we are finally seeing some of the regulatory changes, some of the efforts to bring private testing labs online and taking hold, the giving -- beginning to give us testing capacity in the tens of thousands. a long way to go on building capacity to test people we need. still seeing a lot of anecdotes and real-world evidence that people aren't able to get the tests they need. and the second thing that we will need to happen is giving people more outpatient, more drive-through options to get tested. we don't want people going to hospitals to get tested, especially if they are relatively healthy. what they will be able to do to remove risk of infection if they are not already exposed. haidi: the issue is with the testing lag and selective testing continuing to add to the cost of the virus, infections, and also uncertainties with the
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economy's economic outcome. how do you see the social distancing guidelines? our people following them? is it having that economic impact? >> it is too early to tell whether those measures are having an impact. it will be a wild before we actually know. the unfortunate thing about epidemics in general and ones where there is a testing lag, is the numbers we have now, the visible impact we have now, reflect the status of the outbreak. probably from one week or maybe a few weeks ago. the actual number of cases and the sorts of impact people might need to see to convince them to really take these measures seriously, that's only likely to come in a week or two ahead as we finally see the real world impact of that surge in testing capacity. i think it will be a little bit longer beyond that initial 15 day period that we will need to
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continue having these social distancing measures. that will have an enormous economic impact. we see restaurant groups, other employers beginning to furlough and lay off employees, because revenue is dropping to zero. that will be the focus of the next stimulus package to deliver direct economic assistance. that will be essential to help people financially, help mitigate the economic impact, and help people abide by those social distancing measures. shery: we also heard from vice president pence that u.s. doctors will be able to work across state lines. give us more details about what sort of preparations the medical community is putting in place as we anticipate this surge of cases in the next few weeks. >> that regulatory change may end up being very important. we already see a trajectory in new york state and washington unmitigated and will end up overwhelming beds and physicians
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available. having people coming in from less affected states will be very important. already, some measures are being taken to account for the fact that it will be very difficult to have enough beds ready, given the current state of the hospital system. there are efforts being made to build temporary hospitals to bring hospital ship up to new york and somewhere on the west coast. you will see more of these measures and involvement from the federal government as it becomes clear the extent to which -- the governor continually said in his press conference, the number of beds are unlikely to be up to the challenge. any measure to mitigate that impact will be received well. haidi: how much discrepancy do we see -- or disparity do we see, in terms of the preparedness and ability to handle potential worst case in areas when it comes to health care, as well as the economic outcomes, in terms of the different states? we know san francisco has taken a fairly different approach to
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other states have been hit by the virus. ofthere is a great deal variation with the executive, the willpower to take such severe measures, and beyond that, in health care systems between different states. you can point to california, new york, and washington as epicenters, but also places where there is a comparatively strong state role in the health-care system. states that have expanded medicaid that have lower uninsured rates. and in several cases, they have taken extra efforts beyond the federal level to make sure more people are insured and have health care coverage as the virus spreads to states that don't have as much of a safety net and haven't taken such stringent preparations or been as willing to act on social distancing. there may be an increased impact in those states. haidi: thank you so much for
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joining us. let's get a look at oil markets. we saw that capitulating overnight with risk appetite pretty much across all assets. this is what we are seeing at the moment when it comes to oil. falling to the 18 year low, down 24% overnight. we continue seeing investors in the markets wanting more out of government as to how they are handling the coronavirus outbreak and the detrimental global demand. let's get the first word news. a chinese pharmaceutical company says it won regulatory approval to start human trials of a coronavirus vaccine. they say the treatment has been developed alongside military scientists and will undergo testing on patients in wuhan. 215 thousand people have been infected by the virus. more than 8700 have died. frominy of the latest
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china suggests the virus will reduce the economy to its slowest growth since 1976. across the board slump in activity indicates an expansion of 3.4% this year. that would be the lowest since the final year of the cultural revolution. manufacturing and weaker sales also fell sharply in january and february. bernie sanders is insisting there is no truth in reports he's abandoning his bid for the presidency. axios said he was ready to suspend his campaign after joe biden's sweep of three major states on tuesday. the campaign tweeted the report is incorrect and sanders is holding facebook campaign ads. biden now has more than half the delegates needed to win the democratic nationally -- nomination. may also deal a blow to hong kong. and have repercussions for press freedom in the city. beijing says reporters involved would also be presented from
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working in hong kong, despite the mini constitution that includes press freedom and underpins the basic rule of the hong kong government. news, 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by blumberg, powered by more than 127 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. this is bloomberg. many: still ahead, with big-name players saying the current u.s. stocks slump is a golden buying opportunity, we speak to one value investor who is preaching caution. this is bloomberg. ♪
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about 25%. right now, we see 11%, which is coming off of the 18 year low. u.s. futures,to we are still down. still coming off the back of another selloff we saw in the s&p 500. every sector in the red. energy was the biggest decliner. oil, we see a little bit of rebound. take a look at asian futures. we see a little bit of a mixed picture when it comes to nikkei futures. down 1.5 percent. we have seen a divergence between the topix and the nikkei. as topix outperforming it the etf purchase target was announced. the boj has shifted to favor these topix link etf's. that seems it was one of the reasons we saw a little bit of a selloff on the nikkei and more buying on the topix. down, weeing futures
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expect the rba announcement, policy announcement. it seems the central bank is also gearing up from quantitative easing. some big-name investors diving into equity. bill ackman is aggressively buying stocks, including hilton. bill miller says now is an exceptional buying opportunity. are they right? let's bring in one investor preaching caution. a portfolio manager for vale. company. great to have you with us. -- villareal company. great to have you with us. everyone is selling at the moment. how important is it to have a strong cash position? >> obviously it is a great situation to have a big cash position. we are fortunate enough to have suffered last year from the cash drag during a positive year. it's nice to have cash on hand right now as the valleys become
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more attractive. shery: what are you buying right now? now, are not buying right we still think there is more to come, when it comes to the downside. we are seeing really attractive opportunities. what we have seen, in addition to some of the companies you would expect to suffer, like hilton and the others, there is a number of companies that have absolutely no reason to have a pullback in here and yet are still suffering with the markets. there are interesting things that we are close on making purchases. haidi: can you tell me which names you are liking at the moment? those who still have strong fundamentals? >> one that really jumps off of the page is one that we actually own and have for several years. this is basically the global leader in contamination control. tend to besers
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health care, hospitals and such. their focus is infection prevention. if you look at that, you expect a company like this to potentially be rising in this situation. to the contrary, it is down 20% year to date. if it continues to pullback, it will be a very attractive yourtunity to buy something are not too worried about. lastsr the u.s. lockdown theer than people expect, hospitals are in high utilization, the focus on infection prevention is going to do nothing but increase. that is one where we think there is real opportunity. haidi: you take a look at the selloff, the range of selloffs, bonds, stocks, commodity, including gold. pretty much every currency, including the yen. if we see hoarding cash as the
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main strategy, what is really the missing fundamental or inflection point that investors would need to see to get back in? >> right now, there is such a lack of clarity. there is over 15 million restaurant employees in the u.s. i don't know what percentage of them will come out of this with their jobs, but unfortunately, i don't think it's close to 100. there will be layoffs, we are already hearing about that. folks will see the numbers shortly. what is the carry through impact of that? will those people have start paying rent, then landlords have problems. there really is the basic parameters of the situation being not clear. i think investors want a little more certainty. what is the size of this? we see the metrics in asia, some of those are encouraging, but
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u.s. investors are really looking at this situation trying to figure out which country's experience we should be looking to as a guide. there is a wide variety. that's what i think has us a little cautious on jumping in. ,ike i said, with opportunities there are interesting ways to take advantage. shery: we see incredible dollar appreciation at the moment. how does that affect your portfolio? >> it is positive for our portfolio. we are a u.s. only, or primarily u.s. investor, it works out fine for us. we are on the smaller cap side, so we are not a big importer or exporter where they are the bulk of our revenues in the u.s. so it is not a big factor for us. long-term, it is positive for us. haidi: thank you so much for
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dying us -- thank you so much for joining us. using that info on how to navigate these tumultuous markets. you can get a round up of the stories you need to know to get your day going in today's edition of daybreak. bloomberg subscribers can go on their terminal. it's also available on the mobile in the bloomberg anywhere app. customize those settings or you get the news, industries, and assets that matter to you. this is bloomberg. ♪
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shery: let's get a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. facebook is putting up covid-19 information page at the top of user's feeds, saying it will include a very fine material from trusted sources in a bid to counteract the potential spread of fake news. the data hub will include tips and best practices from the world health organization, the
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cdc. facebook has seen a huge surge in user activity. haidi: the phone that was once apple's biggest is turning bearish and running dark days ahead. wedbush slashed its price target the $400 to $335, saying coronavirus will have a major negative impact on apple for the foreseeable future. they also expect the 5g iphones not to be released later this year as planned. in hongop authorities kong confirm using high-tech to monitor travelers returning from abroad and living in quarantine. they have been issued to those in self-isolation since early february, and more recently for people flying home from overseas. cannot besay the bans removed and don't collect personal data, but those under mandatory quarantine remain a home. haidi: here are some asian futures we're taking a look. we are seeing a bit of a mixed
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that we can't do, but come in and see what we can do. we're here to make life simple. easy. awesome. ask. shop. discover. at your local xfinity store today. it is 9:30 a.m. in sydney. the market open is 30 minutes away. futures looking down again after all the volatile session selling on wall street. u.s. stocks down more than 5%. losing more than a percent at one point -- 8% at one point. they will extend their losses. looking at futures indicating downside of a further 2.8% at the open. 6.5%.ust about it is a day of reckoning, somewhat, for the rba, as they are poised to get started with unconventional ammunition when
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it comes to monetary policy. they are set to reduce the cash to .25%.% -- we will likely get details today about what qe means in australia. the rba will be holding their emergency meeting later this afternoon. the emergency rate cut and unconventional measures set to be deployed. paul has more on this. we are here much sooner than what the rba thought they would be. paul: there was a sense we would get here anywhere -- anyway this year, what with the bushfire, and the coronavirus brought it on. to the point where we have this meeting. normally the rba goes on the first tuesday of every month. away we go. .25%, that is a lower bound. he said he does not see any point getting the cash rate below that. likely to stay there for an extended time. likely to see bond buying, yield control, some see that
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perhaps the rba would boost swap activity and that would mean more lending of aussie dollars into the market. this would pretty much bring australia into line with other central banks around the world. the big four banks have been good at passing on the cuts to consumers. they are working on a plane of their own to support small businesses. haidi: just days after the first government fiscal stimulus package, we are here much sooner than i think the government would have liked. they are talking about the second package now. paul: that's right. one week after, we had the 17 billion aussie dollar package, 1% of gdp. 10 billion u.s. dollars more to come. the prime minister saying that is intended to cushion the blow for small business. people who find they have less work than they did before. the package can include things like deferrals on tax payments, changes to the way goods and services taxes reported, it might mean faster refunds as well. we have to get february job numbers in a couple of hours.
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5.3% expected there. low impact on the job numbers from the virus yet -- no impact on the job numbers from the virus yet. shery: all international services now suspended. paul: yeah, we had a feeling this was coming yesterday when virgin did the same and the government started urging australians not to travel abroad. the department of foreign affairs warning aussie's to come home immediately. here we are. qantas is following suit. suspending all international services. that will take effect from the end of the month, remain in place until may. qantas saying some ad hoc services might be available. freight continues as normal. it means profound changes for the staff at qantas. two thirds of the employees, 20,000 people, have been temporarily stood down. 150 planes have been granted. the staff encouraged to take leave if they have it. arrangements to take leave on half pay. bonuses have been canceled. senior management will not take any pay at all for the rest of
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2020. the february dividend is getting deferred until september as well. some big, big changes announced from qantas today. it will be interesting to see how that stock fares at the open, having lost more than half of its value in 12 months. shery: we will be watching. paul allen, thank you. let's get a check of other market assets. look at oil right now which is serving -- surging at the moment. this after 24% fall in the u.s. trading session. we are talking about lows we have not seen in about 18 years. the first time in four days that it is gaining ground. we have a flood of supply, not to mention, the price war going on between russia and saudi arabia. u.s. futures are still down. this after we saw another down day here in the u.s. with every sector on the s&p 500 in the red. energy was one of the biggest a geithner's. look at currencies right now. we have seen an incredible day for the dollar.
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the bloomberg dollar index reaching the highest on record under a little bit of pressure in this session. this as we continue to see the safe haven moves. the euro, steady at the moment. at thetish pound was weakest level in about 35 years. study at the 160 level while the aussie dollar is gaining ground. this after falling to the lowest level since 2003. we are expecting more measures out of the rba today. let's get you to first word headlines with ritika gupta. ritika: thank you, sheri. the senate has cleared an economic relief bill that would provide food assistance and financial help for virus testing. on 215,000ases touch worldwide with more than 8700 deaths. president trump brushed off warnings at the virus could mean u.s. unemployment soaring to 20%, saying that would be "an absolute worst case scenario."
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countries must isolate [indiscernible] if they don't, transmission chains can continue at a low level than -- then research once measures are lifted. ritika: the european central bank has held an emergency conference call to discuss its response to the coronavirus. as pressure mounts on board members to intervene and cushion the economic fallout. europe has passed china in the number of infections for the first time. thefficials are weighing bailout fund to stephen economy and the eurozone slides into recession. the u.k. is starting to adopt some virus measures deployed elsewhere around the world, having been accused of an inadequate response of far. prime minister boris johnson declined to rule out locking down london itself. the infection is blamed for more than 100 deaths in the u.k. so far. in the government has announced
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loans, grants and tax cuts to help business to survive -- businesses to survive. president trump has devote an act for antivirus masks and other protective equipment. he ordered a navy ship to new york as cases in the city nearly doubled. the president returned his team of -- in beijing, defending his use of the phrase the chinese virus by saying it was first seen there and he wants to be accurate. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. shery: thank you. asian stocks already at the lowest level since 2016. see more pressure on futures right now. let's turn to sophie for a check of the markets. sophie: jumping in the terminal for a check of how markets are shaping up. u.s. futures heading lower after their round we saw on wall street. that is on concerns that policy measures will not cut it when it
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comes to avoiding global recession. the rba will be front and center with qe expected from the australian central bank. ahead of the aussie shares could be looking to form a death cross with the four year low. qantas very much and focus as it halts all overseas flights. aussie dollar holding. testing parity against the kiwi. the new zealand economy and contraction for three straight quarters. with big liquidation slamming the forex market traders, not willing to that against king dollar. it did cap a seven-day gain. while dollar funding markets remain strange. switching out the board, with volatility running high amid the big liquidation in the vix futures curve signaling that the bear market will rage on. the curve, seeing conditions seen during the worst of the 2008 and 2000. 11 downturn.
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. we are seeing moves in vix options i could suggest there is trepidation about false stages at these elevated heights. shery: -- haidi: let's get more on what we are watching is trading gets underway. this thursday session in asia with adam haigh. the terminal -- turmoil, one thing is clear, this dash for cash. it didn't matter if you were looking at equities or gold, nothing was safe. are there any spaces where you can still hide, and when does this led up, will it let up? adam: that's the big discussion at the moment. it remains a very difficult market to be in when people are liquidating positions or appear to be liquidating positions and wanting that liquidity. stocks continue to be under pressure. bonds, which had provided a safe haven in the early part of the equity route, and now not doing that because of this massive supply coming from fiscal policy around the world. that is making it very difficult. when people start to get stopped
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out in positions, it makes it more exaggerated, some of these moves. at the moment, the big dash for cash shown well in this chart about how we will get back to those levels we have not seen for many years now. just shows the appetite for cash at the moment. this heightened volatility is also leading to some of the things that sophie was talking about with the liquidity constraints you are seeing an fx markets, where there is not bid, for a trade, a trades to get done so prices have come off significantly. we saw the aussie, off of more than 3%. got smashed. the pound is very weak as well. a lot of these moves are getting exaggerated by this dash for cash. it continues to be the main market narrative, with people really now pricing the global recession but having great difficulty in determining whether that is just a one or
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two quarter event or something that is a pronounced downturn that lasts for a lot longer than they first might have expected. shery: adam haigh, thank you very much. bloomberg global markets editor. check out our gtv library for any of the charts we show you throughout the programming. gtv go on the bloomberg. still to come, the u.k. and u.s. breakout big moves to protect their economies. will he be enough for businesses? we will speak to the head of transatlantic trade grew british american business next. this is bloomberg. ♪ n business next. this is bloomberg. ♪
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fiscal stimulus package. our china correspondent selena weighing joins us now. compared to what the u.s. is doing, china has been more cautious on not overspending through this crisis. selina: yes, very different approaches between the u.s. and china on how to fight the economic fallout of the coronavirus. china central bank has been injecting money into the financial system, it has held off from interest rate cuts. they have been taking efforts to help specific industries. we just reported today that authorities are considering are relaxing some emission standards to provide relief for automakers. on the fiscal side, they are accelerating spending on infrastructure, lowering taxes, the 570owhere close to billion dollars of stimulus that china unleashed during the financial crisis. you take a look at the u.s., a stark contrast. the federal reserve cutting the rate by 150 basis points this month.
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the administration pushing for that more than $1 trillion fiscal stimulus. if you look at china, they are targeted cautious approach speaks to the ongoing concern about debt. given that china's debt load is almost three times the size of its economy. they may also be holding fire for the second quarter with falling global demand hitting the country. this disciplined approach is really being tested every day that a economists continue to downgrade their outlook, now forecasting that in the first quarter, china's economy will contract by 6%. this doesn't bode well for the rest of the world given china accounts for 30% of global growth, and just how quickly china recovers influences how fast the whole world can recover. haidi: in terms of good news stories, we were hoping for that out of tencent's results. is that what we got and what do we expect from trips.com? selina: we are not getting that relief yet. still seeing the corporate impact the coronavirus is having
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across sectors, across the board. tencent delivered disappointing results and cautions how the economic environment is dampening various business segments. the advertising business is being negatively impacted as their customers tighten their budgets. the outbreak has hit its payments business, sent so many stores and restaurants closed across the country. even though they picked up all of these gamers for millions of people in china staying at home and trying to find ways to spend time, it is unclear if that road is enough to offset pressure in other areas moving forward. if you look at trip.com, this is not a pretty picture, not surprising, given this is china's largest online travel site. it provides everything from hotels and flight reservations as well as package tours entering ticketing. analysts are expecting the company's first revenue and profit guidance to be severely impacted by the outbreak given domestic travel in china dropped sharply amid the lockdowns, travel bands, airlines slashing their flights.
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now our bloomberg intelligence expects the company to suffer from substantial multi-quarter sales losses because even as the epidemic stabilizes in china, the global spread means their outbound travel business will be negatively impacted. i also want to point out that their management has taken some extreme measures. their chairman and ceo are slashing their salaries to zero starting this month to help cope with the outbreak. haidi: extraordinary measures everywhere. thank you so much for that. . our china correspondent, selina wang, in beijing. the u.k. and u.s. are moving closer to lockdown. both governments are trying to find ways to keep this -- keep business in business. duncan edwards is the ceo of britishamerican business, a transatlantic trade group. we welcome him now. great to have you on with us. how do businesses possibly mitigate or prepare for a scenario that is so unexpected and so unpredictable? duncan: clearly, the first thing
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that is on the minds of businesses and our members and other businesses is the well-being of their employees, first and foremost. and secondly, on the well-being of their companies. over the last week or so, and more rapidly in the last few days, companies have been exercising their crisis management programs. they have been where they can, implementing their remote working policies and they. . have been looking at survival what do. . they need to do to manage their way through this extraordinarily difficult and global crisis? haidi: what is the cash flow situation amongst of the companies you have been dealing with? duncan: you hit the nail on the head. cash is everything here. obvious examples where cash is pretty much just dried up. the airline business, hospitality businesses, where
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cash comes in one day and is spend the next. businesses, itof is critical. but for all businesses and all of our member companies, they will be looking at ways to conserve cash over the next few weeks. of course, that has been a knock on effect, as suppliers to those companies are chasing payment, and so on and so forth along the chain. i think it is interesting for us. we have heard a lot about the stimulus that is being proposed and what has been and acted in the u.s. and the u.k. we need to hear more about how that cash gets to businesses. are as a means on who probably not such a high priority, or not so visible for government ministers. shery: have your members been consulted by governments both in the u.s. and u.k. when it comes to exactly what you said,
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dispersing those funds? duncan: i think the government is doing its absolute best to keep in touch with trade associations and the large businesses themselves. i think in both of the u.s. and the u.k., there have been meetings with senior representatives from business. look, i think the first priority the government has had, quite withly, is how can we work private business and business to actually manage the health issue? escalation of the infection rate? the provisionth of supplies and services that can help on the health side. that has been the priority. and quite rightly so. there is also, we know, through treasury teams on both sides, they have been talking about how to get liquidity to businesses. frankly, we don't have the answers yet. we haven't seen any results.
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we have heard about loans, we have heard about some potential holidays from payments. but none of that has been -- we don't have any of the details yet. this is moving so quickly. shery: we are getting the latest breaking news out of the ecb right now. the central bank in europe announcing seven hundred 50 billion euros for the pandemic asset program. the purchases will be conducted until the end of 2020. the ecb program includes all asset categories under existing ones, and they will cover private and public sector. securities 750 billion euros for this pandemic asset program. european leaders holding an emergency call as the euro area economy is sliding to its first recession since 2013. the ecb expanding eligible assets to non-bank commercial paper as well. duncan, as we see more and more
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measures coming, not only from central banks, but also from european governments in order to stem the pandemic, in order to gain control over the fallout on the economy, what are you seeing on the political side of things as we see perhaps president trump applying some travel restrictions toward europe without consultation with european leaders? are these some of the concerns that are being raised by your members? duncan: it is easy to criticize. i think all countries seem to be doing variations of the same thing. there is some increase in constraints around travel in europe, and the u.k., between the u.s. and canada and so on. you know, i don't have any political view about that. i think governments, you have to give them the benefit of the doubt that they are trying to do the best thing, they are trying to follow the advice.
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for businesses, on a practical level, we are all trying to work remotely. everyone is trying to do what they can. but some companies require physical presence of their management. that havefor sme's billed to business in the states from the u.k. and vice versa, where senior management is used to traveling to see the business, i worry very greatly about the long-term viability of many of these businesses. if they are not able to get to them if they, are not able to see their customers, it will be date -- it will be very difficult. as thejust quickly come ecb announces the 750 billion euro pandemic asset program, they are also saying that they would consider revising the limits to quantitative easing to any extent that is necessary, that they will not tolerate any risks the policy transmission. before we let you go, are you worried on when we get to the
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other end of this, that there is going to be an existential crisis when it comes to globalization and globalized trade? is there a concern that economies will look inwards? ? particularly when it comes to supply chains and the free flow of trade? duncan: i hope not. i think there is definitely a risk that people will say well, we should have been more self-sufficient, we shouldn't have relied on overseas supplies for these categories of goods, particularly medicines. i think we have to remind that the trade is not a zero-sum game. the whole world has benefited from this extraordinary evolution in trade over the last 30 years. huge numbers of people have been taken out of poverty globally. and we have to remind people that trade is a great driver of
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the prosperity agenda that -- of the prosperity that we have all the joy -- all enjoyed. we will be doing that and i know our members will be supporting us in that work once we get through this crisis. shery: thank you very much for joining us, ceo of the transatlantic trade group are britishamerican business. take a look at how currencies are trading. we have seen the dollar now at the highest level on record. there is a little bit of pressure as we got the news from the ecb that they are revising their qe limits. the euro jumping up 2/10 of 1%, while the british pound has recovered from the weakest level we have seen it for 35 years. plenty more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: good morning. i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney, where markets have just come online. shery: shery ahn in new york. welcome to "bloomberg markets: asia." our top stories this hour, president trump invokes special powers to boost u.s. virus prevention and global infection cases topped 200,000. the ecb holds an emergency meeting amid calls for faster action as the euro zone
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threatens to slide into recession. a virus vaccine developed in has won approval for human testing is the number of cases in europe over take that in china for the first time. deaths continue to soar in italy, rising for the most since the outbreaks began. shery: the u.k. toughens a response after being accused of an inadequate reaction. school is to close and the government is considering a lockdown in london. the pound plunges to the lowest against the dollar since 1985. and we have breaking news right now. moody's has cut occidental petroleum to junk. they are saying that occidental petroleum's august 29 continues to broaden the companies balance sheet and this compromises their financial flexibility to confront the collapse in oil prices. oil rebounding a little bit today but this after falling to the lowest level in 18 years. the ceo of occidental coming out
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and saying they will take aggressive steps to combat the oil crash and that the specifics will be coming in the next few days. for now, let us get a quick check of the broader markets. australia is open for trade. sophie: it has been a choppy week for australia stocks. no difference here for the start of cash trade. managing higher by .4%. likes of amcor jumping more than 8% this morning. checking in on the aussie dollar, nudging higher but staying below 60. qe expected from both australia and new zealand. the aussie kiwi -- reaching that 1985,e first time since when the accord was signed. the ecb popping on that qe bandwagon, potentially saying it will consider revising asset purchase limits. stock futures are nudging higher
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as much as 1.9% on that news. the euro trading above 109. an all time high. haidi. haidi: we are going to get more on this kitchen sink situation with ecb policymakers just wrapping up that emergency call to discuss their response to the pandemic. they are saying they will consider revising limits. we are getting news of the 700 50 billion euro pandemic emergency purchase program and taking a look at the statement, we did know that france, for example, was putting a lot of pressure for immediate action. we are seeing a bit of a reaction when it comes to euro-dollar. bloomberg dollar index hitting the highest level on record overnight as the dollar is remaining the sole asset standing. even the japanese yen no longer behaving much like an asset. we are seeing a little bit of a spike when it comes to
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euro-dollar as we get the ecb governing council announcing the 700 50 billion euro pandemic emergency purchase program. joins ustive editor now on the line from london. this was kind of the extent of what markets needed to see from the ecb. the potential for more qe. that'sd: right. that is what of -- one of the key things we are seeing from the ecb but we are also launching this temporary asset purchase program, a mixture of private and public sector of securities that will run through to the end of this year, known as the pandemic emergency purchase program. the interesting thing in all of that, a mix of public and private and it will be flexible which allows them to adjust the asset mix over time. there will be a waiver as part of this that allows them to buy securities issued by the government. it will also mean that they can
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buy commercial paper from the nonfinancial sector and that is a real asset to show that they are trying to support the private sector in all of this tidedlow companies to be over through the months ahead. they don't have any customers. they are trying to keep their stock bonds and pay them without any money coming in, and that is a real signal from the ecb that we are seeing now. that is a real concern that even if you promise lots of money into an economy, if people are not spending or not able to go out and spend, then it doesn't really matter in terms of the benefit to the broader economy and that is a strong signal that we are seeing now from the ecb. seeing the markets are reacting with the euro and the british pound also jumping. how much will this latest action from the ecb satisfy the markets and also, how much will it do to the economy? this depends on whether a demand
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can be spurred as we are heading towards the first recession since 2013. rosalind: you are seeing a slight bounce and some of the markets including stock futures on the back of this. it does add to the body that we are seeing all around the world. fiscal packages from governments, big actions by central banks around the world to cut interest rates even further, to flood the market with liquidity, but as you say, the key point again is there can be all the liquidity in the world in the market but unless people are outspending and businesses are having money come in the door, then in the long run, the hit will remain simply an action to allow businesses to stay in operation perhaps for some months until that demand comes back in from the public sector but that is really why you are seeing only a fairly small reaction in the market because even though it is designed to support the public sector, there is that real question mark over demand when
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you see countries in full thatown talk in the u.k. london could go into a full lockdown as soon as this weekend for an extended period. mathieson, thank you so much for joining us from london, our executive editor. take a look at the euro right now. we continue to see more upside for the currency. we were down and moving against the u.s. dollar. a little bit of a jumping. intraday session. this of course coming off the back of weakness in the euro, not to mention the british pound, which fell to the weakest and 35 years against the dollar. we have seen incredible surges for the dollar. the bloomberg dollar index touching the highest level on record. for more analysis, let us bring in our bloomberg and strategist mark cranfield. give us your take on what the ecb has done today and whether or not this is a big enough
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place of floor under the markets. is very large, very important, and it might not be the last word from the ecb. although the numbers of very big and they have been very specific mentioning things like commercial paper, it does show that they are willing to do whatever it takes and if this does not initially work, there will be more in the pipeline. they will adjust this. the markets have been waiting for a while the ecb to step up. there's also talk that japan is ready to do more in terms of government stimulus as well. the ecb has been relatively quiet. of course, they missed the chance to lower rates as well. this is a very big step. it's a reminder of what they did during the debt crisis in the last decade. eventually, they came in and they stabilized the markets. the bond markets in europe, not to mention the equity markets, has become very unruly.
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the ecb measure here is a very positive sign. it could well help the euro and european stocks to have a decent day today but it will not be the last thing. they will assess this. they will see how well it is received in the markets. they will see whether the funding issues do you start to calm down. if they don't, they will come back with more. the numbers will get bigger and bigger. the most important thing is they are starting to act and it might not be the last word. haidi: we now turn to other central-bank decisions throughout the day including the rba with their emergency meeting. it is kind of a day of wrestling because we know they are going to get that. we are expecting to hear more details as to what qe could look like for the rba and we are getting news of another record injection in their daily market of 12.7 billion aussie dollars from the rba. is the risk really skewed towards disappointing? the rba had slagged those meetings. they certainly put
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themselves in a difficult spot. they indicated that they would prefer to bring the cash rate down to a level something like 25 basis points and then target yields in the bond market. difficultis quite a balancing act to achieve. it could well be that the market is not satisfied and they try and drive the market rates even lower. and we do know that the futures market in australia can cope with negative yields on the money market rates. it could be that the market pushes even further and tries to get the rba to even think about something like the ecb has which is a negative cash shield. the job of the rba is quite difficult. trying to keep bond yields in a tight range is not that easy. you can ask the bank of japan. it is a difficult job. from time to time, you have to expend enormous amounts of money . at the end of the day, the rba
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has to decide whether they are half ofilling -- the bond market like the bank of japan does. it may need tweaking as they go along. they can revisit with new tools in the future. haidi: thank you so much for that, bloomberg mliv strategist mark cranfield with a look ahead at what the ecb has just done and what the rba could do. we are now hearing from the ecb's christine lagarde saying that extraordinary times require these extraordinary actions. there are no limits to their commitment to the euro. we also see that bounce in the euro in response to these developments at the ecb. christine lagarde saying there are no limits to ecb commitments to the euro and they are determined to use the full potential of all of the ecb's tools including of course the $750 billion pandemic preparedness package. the senate in the u.s. has cleared its second package aimed
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at providing relief in the face of the coronavirus pandemic. let's go to greg sullivan in d.c. how quickly can this get through? >> the senate have cleared that package of aid for president trump's signature. virus testing, shore up unemployment security, bolster food aid. ofre is also -- tens billions of dollars to help them make their way through the coronavirus response. there's also this paid sick leave provision in there that would help companies with fewer than 500 employees shore up there paid leave and that provision actually -- divisions between republicans and democrats. democrats want a more robust paid sick leave and republicans worry it would incentivize companies to lay off workers ahead of time so that measure has passed to president trump for his signature, so clearly, a lot of work happening with
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coronavirus response. shery: even before the signature is on that bill, we are seeing lawmakers rushing for another proposal. what can we see there? democrats are and negotiating framework for another bigger stimulus package. we know the white house has significantly wrapped up that figure two a $1.3 trillion request. that request would include directi $500 million in payments to american citizens and that would also include some loans to distressed industries such as the airline industry and other industries that are actually hurting from the coronavirus. so of course, those details are still being hashed out. a lot will depend on what congress is willing to put into the legislation but that does seem to be some momentum on both sides of the aisle to try and get something done. at least from the white house perspective, something big. shery: thank you very much for
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that. we have an alert crossing the bloomberg right now. nissan will be suspending their u.s. output starting from march 20 to april 6 because of the coronavirus outbreak. we have seen many companies suffering from this virus outbreak. we have seen qantas being one of them. let's turn to sophie for a check of the markets. [no audio] shery: it seems we do not have sophie at the moment but let's get you some other headlines with the first word news with ritika gupta. of the closer scrutiny latest belief data from china suggests economy is growing to its lowest since 1976. across the board slump in activity indicates expansion at 3.4% this year.
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that would be the lowest since the final year of the cultural revolution. also the year mao zedong died. many fracturing and retail sales fell sharply. a chinese pharmaceutical company says it has won regulatory approval to start human trials of a coronavirus vaccine. treatment has the been developed alongside military scientists and will undergo testing on patients in wuhan. 250,000 people have been infected by the virus. more than 8700 have died. china's decision to slash accreditation into u.s. journalists may have consequences for press freedom in the city. beijing says reporters would be prevented from working in hong kong despite press freedom and emigration that underpins the basic law. the hong kong government said the city still enjoys a free press. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than
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2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. haidi. haidi: thank you. coming up, the global bond rally is gaming steam -- gaining steam. we will doub discuss that with our guest. shery: qantas is standing down most of its staff. more on australia's national carrier. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the peak hit back in december. the carrier announced a two thirds of the 30,000 employees will not be working. it will suspend overseas services from late march until at least may. keeping the focus on australia jumping, we had a rebound injection -- repo injection by the rba. excess cash piling up their accounts. we are seeing mortgage-backed security markets basically stalling and that may diminish the impact of an rba rate cut. we are watching out for that emergency meeting from the rba today. let's get you a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. an activist investor has named two nominees for the board. they want him to change direction. the ceo left last month after slumping sales.
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slow tod has been too tackle lackluster performance and claims the invention played a role in him losing his job. facebook is putting a covid-19 information paid at the top of users feed, saying it will include verified information from trusted sources in a bid to counteract the potential spread of fake news. the data hub will include tips and best practices from the world health organization and the u.s. centers for disease control and prevention. facebook says it is seeing a huge surge in user activity. the firm that was once apple's ull is turning bearish and warning of dark days ahead. price targets setting the coronavirus will have a major negative impact on apple for the foreseeable future. willpects the 5g iphones not be released later this year as planned. there is plenty more to come here on "bloomberg markets: asia ." this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: the bank of australia will hold an emergency meeting this afternoon with an emergency rate cut and unconventional measures is set to be deployed. we have gotten here much sooner than i think the rba would have liked. what are we expecting? >> we were expected to get here this year anyway with the bushfires, the ground, anemic growth, but here we are in mid-march and an emergency meeting, which is very unusual. we will hit that lower bound. phil lowe said he can see no point in going beyond that so that means unconventional measures and plenty of conjecture about exactly what that means. pretty likely we are going to see some bond buying, a yield curve control, and some analysts swapxpecting forex activity boost as well, anything to get more liquidity into the market. the big four banks have also been passing on the rate cuts for the rba -- that the rba has
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been making. they are working on a plan of their own to support small business. they are working on delayed repayments. small business, restaurants, pumps, sentiments have all been taking a real beating. haidi: what are we expecting from the government? days ago, we had the first stimulus package. we were expecting that to tide us through until budget. it does not look like it will last until then. paul: no, and since the government reacted last week with a $10 billion package, the australian government response looks a little bit on the weak side. morrison said they are working on more. we may hear more today but that will be aimed at cushioning the blow for small businesses, supporting people that might had less work than they before. we can also see some deferral of tax payments, some changes around goods and services to allow small businesses to get refunds a little more quickly. have not had much of an impact
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in the data. we have february the jobs later on today expected to hold that at 5.3%. a backward looking number does not take into account what we have seen in the past couple of weeks. shery: what are we seeing in terms of the aussie economy? where are we at? where are we headed? paul: sounds. recession now forecast for the first time in almost 30 years, first time in a generation. that is pretty much a given. you would find it difficult to find anyone who thinks that a recession now is not going to happen in australia. we have had news from qantas today as well ground and 100 50 aircraft, suspending all international travel and this follows a similar move we had from version australia yesterday. no choices in this matter because we have had the government say that australians should not travel abroad. that advice is in place indefinitely. the department of foreign affairs urging australians to get home as soon as possible because travel will become more
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difficult so qantas taking this incredible move and you can see the profound response of the share price. qantas losing almost two thirds of its value over the past year. 20,000 employees will be stowed down temporarily, about two thirds of the workforce. there will be changes to leave arrangements. some staff may be able to take leave on half pay. bonuses have been canceled. senior management now will not be taking any pay at all for the rest of 2020, and the dividend that was promised this month will be deferred until september. who knows what will happen beyond that. this is the fifth the time now i believe qantas has cut capacity so there could still be plenty more to come. shery: paul allen in sydney, thank you very much for that with an outlook on the aussie economy. as we wait, more measures coming from the rba. of theet a quick check markets. especially in the currency markets. we have seen a clift reversal
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when it comes to the euro, which is jumping .3%. we are weakening against the u.s. dollar but this of course coming after the ecb's latest measures of 750 billion euros as part of that pandemic asset purchase program. christine lagarde saying there are no limits to that ecb commitment to the euro. in the meantime, a little bit of question for the bloomberg dollar index which earlier today reached a record high. at safe haven demand really propelling the u.s. currency. the aussie holding steady. this after we saw the biggest plunge to the lowest level since 2003. we are still below that 60 u.s. cents level. coming up next, the coronavirus is expected to weigh on consumer prices in japan. february numbers are out on the other side of the break. we will speak with bank of america's head of japan economics -- this is bloomberg. ♪ when you move homes, you move more than just yourself.
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shery: breaking news out of japan. we are seeing now consumer price inflation. the national headline inflation year on year accelerating 0.4% for the month of february. this is a slowdown from the previous month and also missing estimates. when it comes to the core cpi, that will be excluding fresh food. year on year, a gain of 0.6%. a deceleration from the previous month but matching estimates. 0.6 percent growth, which is also a estimates but deceleration from the previous
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month. we continue to see the downside pressure on prices. lower energy prices is one reason we have weaker demand on travel accommodation. remember, the coronavirus outbreak hitting the japanese economy in the month of february. not to mention that there are downside risks going forward. we are seeing a stronger japanese yen closing risks for prices. the headline inflation at the moment, year on year growth, 0.4% for the month of february. missing estimates of slowing down from the previous month. bank of america's head of japan economics global research joins us on the line from tokyo to dissented the numbers. not that surprising that we are seeing this slow slowdown in japan. how badly will the economy be hit by the coronavirus outbreak? >> i mean, it's going to be hit really hard. guess the silver lining, if you can call it that for japan,
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is that, you know, the country has been sort of curtailing activity on the services side ever since the end of february when prime minister abe announced nationwide school closures and also recommended almost a quad -- because i -- quasi-ban. it has been nowhere near what we saw in china and what we are about to see in europe and the united states. for the services industry, it is bad, but it can be a lot worse. what we worry about is that as the united states and europe place restrictions on activity, we are going to get that very sharp drop in external demand and with financial markets being so volatile, i think that will weigh on sentiment on capex, so overall, this is a very strong headwind for japan. growth is going to be suppressed. the only question is how long does this shock persist? shery: we are hearing from local
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media that the government is mulling more stimulus measures. right now, they are reporting the government and the ruling party are planning over ¥30 trillion stimulus. this of course on top of measures we have seen in the past. we have heard that they are perhaps even considering cash handouts of around ¥12,000. i wonder how much all of these measures will work, especially the cash payments in a nation of savers. i think there's a lot of numbers flying around about potential stimulus. i am not sure we are going to get the $3 trillion package. as we always warn investors in japan, you need to pay attention to the actual spending that the government is going to do and i think the next round of measures will be bigger than the first two that we had, but not sure about that scale. cash handouts, that is something that the government did during the global financial crisis. it handed out basically ¥12,000,
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a little over 100 u.s. dollars to each adult, and it looks like they are looking at that again. we think that is the correct measure because right now, what is very important is to stabilize incomes and then we can worry about stimulating spending and consumption later, 12,000,t is going to be which is the numbers that have been floating around, that is very small, and i think it's not going to be enough to cushion the blow on sentiment, so we are paying attention to how much that number evolves. it is the blows to sentiment that could potentially mean the longer term dragged even if the virus itself and the outbreak passes its peak. we know how much of a battle just getting the nation out of that deflationary state of mind was. and i don'tutely, think -- again, the baton is in fiscal. we await that. i don't think the third package
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will be the end of it. during the global financial crisis, we saw multiple fiscal packages, and i think it is important that the government be aggressive on this because we need something quite strong in terms of signals to turn sentiment around. what do we expect when it comes to the yen? along with a number of safe haven assets in the market, it is just not behaving as such. there's huge amounts of volatility. what would you be watching for? izumi: there's a lot of questions about why dollar yen has not fallen, why the yen has not strengthened in this kind of risk off environment. the yen actually has strengthened against a lot of currencies. it is just that the dollar is so strong right now because global trade being pretty much at a standstill as a result of simultaneous declines in activity all across the world, u.s. corporate's are bracing for a shot in activity and declining
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cash flow. there is a hard scramble for cash and that is why, as you mentioned earlier, we see the dollar index moving up. that is one of the reasons that's keeping dollar elevated. we do think, you know, going into the new fiscal year, that the risk is that dollar yen goes lower and the yen strengthens further, but i think right now, the focus is just on the dollar shortage. it has surged in the month of march when really the corporate bond market in japan was an oasis of calm before. what are investors now realizing that they did not think of before? markets? the bond shery: in the corporate bond market in japan. it is surging 70 plus basis points so far in march. japan,the situation in there is a lot of volatility. that is true across all markets.
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we are seeing what is driving that volatility is lack of liquidity right now. -- backstopjapan this. on mondays policy meeting, they announced a temporary ramp-up in their corporate bond purchases and commercial paper. this is something that a lot of major central banks are doing across the world, including the ecb and the fed. we think that will be a very important backstop. how much distance do you the central banks have in this situation, as unprecedented as it is, and how much more can we expect on that front? izumi: it is extremely important. we think one of the most important decisions that the fed announced in conjunction with other central banks on monday was this enhancement of the
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dollar swap lines. the bank of japan conducted its first operation under that onanced facility i think wednesday, and we had massive take up, 32 billion u.s. dollars almost, which is by far the highest since the global financial crisis, so that has helped ease a little bit of the pressures on dollar funding a little bit, but i think, you know, i still think there is a shortage of dollars, so yes, i think you will see continued strong take up for that facility. haidi: izumi, thank you so much. izumi devalier from bank of america. we will get more on how each individual economy will fare with the coronavirus crisis. guests join us later on bloomberg markets. let's get you a look at how japanese markets are faring at the moment.
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sophie kamaruddin is taking a look at the trading session for us. sophie: let's check in on nikkei futures in singapore, pulling up the board as we are waiting to see whether the doj will provide more stimulus given the stress we are seeing in funding markets. nikkei futures in singapore opening higher while we have the yen staying above 108 in the face of that strong dollar. jgb futures indicating losses for cash trade. we wait on boj meeting minutes. jgbpening pressure for the curve. traders wait and see if we can see more unscheduled bond buying from the japanese central bank. let's switch out the board to check in on aussie stocks this morning. we are seeing the asx 200 trade higher by as much as 3%. around the 5000 level as the formation is in the making potentially. aussie and kiwi bonds extending the global selloff on rising kiwi bets from the rba and the rbnz. the kiwi dollar sliding against all g10 peers with grim economic forecasts.
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news of an economy detracting. limits said there was no to its commitment to the common currency, announcing a pandemic emergency bond buying program which also have seen treasury in u.s. futures spike this morning. shery. tuned for more markets coverage. we have interviews with the thai stock exchange ceo and the founding partner. but now, let's go to ritika gupta for the first word headlines. ritika: the senate has cleared and economic relief bill that would provide paid sick leave to -- virus testing. it touches on 215 thousand worldwide with more than 8700 deaths. president trump brush off warnings at the virus could mean u.s. unemployment soaring to 20% , saying that would be "an absolute worst case scenario." control the epidemics.
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, test,es must isolate and trace. if they do not, transmission chains continue at a low level and then resurge once measures are lifted. president trump invoked the defense protection act. he also ordered a navy hospital ship to new york as cases in the city nearly doubled and the president returned to his theme of blaming beijing for the infection, defending his use of the phrase "the chinese virus," by saying it was first seen there and he wants to be accurate. the u.k. is starting to adopt some virus measures deployed elsewhere around the world, having been accused of an inadequate response so far. schools will be closed on friday and boris johnson declined to rule out knocking down london itself.
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the infection is blamed for more than 100 deaths in the u.k. so far and the government announced loans, grants, and tax cut to help businesses survive. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. haidi. haidi: thank you. coming up next, crude may be up in asia trading but it is coming off the 24% drop in new york was the worst fall in 18 years. that is not even the worst decline we have seen this month. the roller coaster does continue as we see the extreme volatility in the crude market. we will take a look next at what it would take to stop it. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi:haidi: we are seeing west texas crude trading higher in the asian session, but of course, that follows on the back onthat 24% plunge in prices wednesday overnight. we saw oil prices falling to the lowest in 18 years. to chart the volatility and future of oil prices, i want to bring in jim thornhill. is this just kind of a -- we are continuing to hear the pumps saying they will flat out. is there anything that could put an end to this? jim: it continues to be a roller coaster ride for oil. very sharp rally this morning, but as you mentioned, the market did collapse by 24%, so we still are well down on that. anything i don't see that really can point to a sustained rally at this point. part of the reason we came down so sharply yesterday was the saudi's doubled down on the price war with russia, which of
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course started with that failed opec meeting earlier in the month when they failed to agree on production cuts to combat the demand impact from the virus. ofil we get some sort compromise on that front, it is hard to see any rally being sustained in the current demand picture that we are seeing. but having said that, it is extremely volatile. it's not going to be a straight line down. we will see the technical bounces after such big moves, so not wholly surprising. it would be a brave investor who stepped in and went along oil at this point. shery: even though we see this outbreak occurred in demand and the ongoing price war between saudi arabia and russia, until these two issues get resolved, will be see a meaningful and fundamental move higher? jim: no, i don't think we will. what we will see is a continuation of this extreme
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volatility, but the broad trend will be lower and calling a bottom is almost impossible at the moment. there is very little value in holding a long oil position when the two factors you mentioned are still in play. we have had analysts coming out and saying it could go below $10 a barrel. inhas been down there before times past. we could see a return unless there is a material change in that supply and demand outlook. at the moment, neither saudi arabia nor russia are blinking in this price were. to some, it is kind of incredible given the unprecedented demand we have seen. senior official in russia said they would like to see prices higher, which if you read the room could perhaps be taken as an indication that they might like to see some sort of compromise, but you know, we are some way from that yet i think. thornhill, our sydney
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energy reported, thank you very much for that, joining us with the latest on oil. we will have more analysis on the energy markets when we are joined by the founder and chairman of fge. if you are watching from sydney, that is at 1:40 p.m. will temporarily suspend their u.s. production. of course, we continue to see policymakers, businesses, trying to really grapple with the fallout from the coronavirus outbreak. we have seen nissan also suspending some of their u.s. -- as well. gold going through the wildest price swings since the 2008 financial crisis as global markets convulse on fears of the coronavirus. from stringer joins us now melbourne. david, of course, we would typically expect gold to go up
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on safe haven demand, but the need for liquidity really not allowing that to happen. david: absolutely. as you say, that really has not been the case. we have not seen gold act in that haven. certainly as this prices has begun to deepen but it has been quite a wild ride in the last couple of days. we have seen gold rally over the weekend. snapping a saw gold losing streak. even just yesterday, early trading in asia, gold extending those gains before it tumbled again as we moved into the u.s. open, and it closed yesterday, down about 2.8%. quite volatile this morning. not so pronounced, but certainly has been swinging again this morning. there is certainly expectations that that will continue. thean look at things like
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etf volatility index that is a gauge of expectations for the price swings, about double the session. it is now at the highest level since november, 2008. certainly an indication that investors are expecting gold to thatnue to swing in volatile fashion. as you said, look, it is kind of mainly about people liquidating those positions in gold, the rush for cash over asset classes. stronger dollar and lower inflationary environment. are this wildns tried to continue. as global economic growth just grinds to a halt, what is it looking like a cross at the commodities complex? david: absolutely.
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overnight, it is often seen as a barometer with global growth. certainly another indication of ineduced demand, but even things like palladium and platinum, we are really seeing that read through for things like the automobile sector. to the worst start of the year for 2013. seeing the headlines crossing harley-davidson. in the past hour, we also had big automakers in the u.s. and europe talk about temporarily suspending some production. palladium, platinum, both used in pollution control devices. the prices of those have been cratering. add to that things like -- possible relaxation of standards. that is why the outlook for
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those quantities continues to look pretty bleak. across the board, wherever you look, there appears to be an impact for the virus. seeingght spot is we are -- really hold out. prices remain pretty robust mainly because the steel mills in china are getting back to work and things are looking a little brighter. that's really interesting that you are starting to see iron ore show some resilience. one piece of good news for australia. david stringer in melbourne, and we are seeing spot gold jumping back above 1500 now as the dollar see some weakness. let's take a look across the rest of the currencies because we did have the bloomberg dollar index surging to a record high overnight. we get the kitchen sink situation from the ecb as well. .50 billion euros
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the willingness to be dedicated to more qe entry support the euro, and we are seeing strength in euro-dollar and we are also seeing a bit of a recovery in sterling as well after that traded at the lowest level since 1985 overnight. also, a bounceback for the aussie. lots more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪
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haidi: let's get you a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. qantas and its budget armed -- suspend all international flights from late this month following a call by the toernment for people not travel abroad. two thirds of the company's employees will be -- temporarily. virgin is also grounding its international fleet to 2.5 months and cutting domestic
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tenacity and half. the world's biggest long-haul airline is looking at grounding the bulk of its 100 15a380 superjumbo's as the coronavirus -- dubai-based emirates has cut 20 of planes from its service and delays the delivery of more from airbus. emirates has stopped flying to a quarter of its usual destinations and is encouraging staff to take leave. two of india's most high-profile airlines are considering groundings, too. seen traffic slumped as much as 30% in india. its national flights hit by travel restrictions. at the indian venture of singapore airlines, it is considering delaying delivery of its first batch of boeing seven dreamliner's. dreamliners. shery: let's turn to sophie for what to watch. on nikkeit's check in
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futures in osaka this morning, getting more than 2%. while you have the asx 200 easing its earlier advance of 3% as markets assess policy responses by central banks, you have the euro and u.s. futures climbing on the ecb's stimulus boost and jumping into the terminal as markets speculate that boj may add more bond buying. etf purchases unleashed thus far, prompting a shift. outperformance in the underlying benchmark, capping its worst seven-day slump since 2000. the past seven sessions, since 1992. this is the wrong chart, but just talking about king dollar. dislocations in the markets continues, haidi. haidi: sophie kamaruddin. stay with us for more of our markets coverage later on throughout the course of the day. we will be bringing you
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rise. to jumping in new york regain some of wednesday's dramatic loss. the number of cases in europe overtakes that of the mainland. italy rising the most since the outbreak began. >> in the united states, we continue to see more virus cases. right now, we have seen the first coronavirus case among new york's prison population. we know that here in new york, governor cuomo saying that there have been 2382 cases. jumpwill be an exponential from only 1000 the previous day. the first virus case among new york's prison population. >> let's get a quick check of the markets as japan and south korea come online. sophie? >> we are seeing upside for the nikkei 225 five by more than 2%.
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staying below 17,000 points. the topics gaining ground as well at the start of cash trade. traders will be waiting to see if the boj may see more bond buying operation. the 10 year yield off by two basis points this morning. let's check in on south korea this morning. the cost be edging higher by 1.6%. retreating an touch after reaching an all-time high overnight. we have the euro just holding around 109, adding as the ecb provided support. as qehave that in focus bets are on for central banks around the world. the rba is in focus today. .he asx 200 up the aussie dollar staying below 60 while we see kiwi stocks under pressure.
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the kiwi dollar also on the decline as the rbnz is on focuses well. let's check in on bonds this morning. deepening across the aussie and kiwi yield curves. the 10 year yield for u.s. treasury is off by four basis points this morning. gold hovering around 5000 bucks announce. oil, brent gaining ground. let's get you caught up with the first word news. ritika gupta in new york. >> the senate has cleared and economic relief bill that would provide paid sick leave, food assistance, and financial help for virus testing. infection cases touched on 215,000 worldwide. more than 8700 deaths. president trump rostock warnings that the virus could mean u.s. unemployment soaring to 20%, saying that would be an absolute worst-case scenario.
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>> countries must isolate, test, treat, and trace. if they don't, transmission chains can continue at a low level and then research -- resurge once physical restrictions are lifted. >> the u.k. is starting to adopt u.k. -- measures from around the world. schools will be closed from friday. doris johnson declined to rule out walking down london itself. the infection is blamed for more than 100 deaths in the u.k. so far. the government has announced loans, grants, and tax cuts to help businesses up drive. -- survive. with data from china suggests the economy will read death be reduced to a slowing growth since 1976.
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the lowest since the final year of the cultural revolution. manufacturing and retail sales fell sharply in january and february. china's decision to slash accreditation for u.s. journalists may deal a blow to hong kong. it will have repercussions for press freedom in the city. they would be prevented from working in hong kong despite the city's constitution that includes press freedom and immigration. it underpins the basic law. the government says the city still enjoys a free press. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. >> i'll take it from here. thank you. we are getting a quick check of oil prices as we continue to see that surge. the first rise in four days.
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this coming off 18 year lows. the bti up now 60.5%. this after we saw that followed more than 20% in the previous session. when it comes to brent prices, they are recouping some of those losses we saw in the past session. gold is also gaining ground. we have not seen this volatility in gold prices since the financial crisis. >> with europe and the u.s. unleashing support measures for their economy, central bankers in indonesia, the philippines, and taiwan are meeting amid growing pressure for similar moves. let's get more from our reporter in singapore. more cuts just coming from all of the central banks. >> that's right. originally, today was supposed to be much busier.
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we had the fed and the boj overnight that would've been poised to decide on thursday in asia. taking emergency action earlier this week. the philippines waiting until today. no less urgent is the virus response. indonesia itself is in a sticky spot. is the worst across the agent currency back. of pressure to focus on currency stability. we do see a rate cut in indonesia, probably 25 basis points or 50 basis points if you are going with the minority in the survey. a lot of pressure to respond. philippines central bank governor earlier this week did say that at least 25 basis point cut was on the table for today's decision. also seeing a cup there. relatively less exposed economically is the philippines to trade and tourism channels. they are being no less pressure
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to respond in some way and make sure they can keep it -- liquidity flowing and businesses healthy and the community healthy. in taiwan, emphasis for a cut. they're looking to cut down to 1.25%. that's new the record low during the global financial crisis. they are also dealing with the same pressure. their economy seems to be relatively healthy compared to the rest of the nation. >> how much policy space will buffer -- or buffer do these areas have? >> in the case of taiwan, rate cuts can solve everything. .hey have an aging society savings are getting crushed when the rates are lower. they are flush with cheap money. the rate cuts further are not going to help as much. we're looking at ways that central banks looked to other tools. a lot of macro prudential measures. the bank ofks ago,
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korea was are getting for more targeted business measures, long relief, that sort of thing. liquidity injections are very targeted and sharp instead of the blunt tool of the interest-rate cuts. we will be looking at those in the days ahead. at the same time, even with those pressures, even with a focus on other tools and the currency stability issues with king dollar raining, they will have to look at more interest cuts were they can. some banks are already at like -- record lows. there's a danger of getting to the zero lower bound. they will have to see what they can do on that front while pushing a kitchen sink approach to this virus response. >> thank you so much for that. of course, we are continuing to take a look at the positive market reaction we are seeing from the ecb. we heard earlier from christine
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lagarde saying that these are its ordinary times calling for very measures. that's their willingness to expand quantitative easing as well. this new temporary asset purchase program. surprising both private and public sector securities. that will run through at least until the end of 2020. you can see on your terminal now, this is a look at what global central banks have done to counter the coronavirus. we are getting the rba emergency cut later on today as well. let's bring in jpmorgan asset management chief asia strategist . does this help? we've seen the short-term cutters bounce and markets resuming their misery. ultimately, the missing fundamental is where and how the global outbreak of infections will peak. there's no central bank back can give us that answer at the moment. >> i think it's important to recognize the limits of monetary
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policy. the objective right now is to be sure of the functioning of financial markets, as smooth as possible. there's a general recognition that rate cuts are not necessarily helpful to support the economy. thehe opera continues and central bankses, are applying measures to ensure a smooth functioning of financial markets. these moves are not necessarily aiming at trying to stabilize or revive the economy while the opera continues. >> in terms of extra very measures that christine lagarde alluded to, we know that this latest asset purchase program includes greek sovereign debt as well as commercial paper. that is something new and out of the fed playbook. is that controversial? is it particularly helpful? >> it does help to free some of
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the -- we have seen in various commercial papers or the bond market. ecb that perspective, the is taking a creative stance when it comes to where they can help more. from that perspective, they have been very aggressive in the government bonds market in europe. including some of the corporate bond market. expanding that program to cover somedoes help to unfreeze of the liquidity challenge these we've seen -- challenges we've seen. i would expect central banks atoss the world to look starting qe. central banks will have to take a more multi-pronged approach when it comes to stabilizing the financial systems. early to bell too talking about opportunities that
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we may find, whether in europe or elsewhere? tocentral banks are starting approve measures on fiscal policies and monetary policy. in the u.k., the government will be providing support. paid sick leave and income support. we've seen similar proposals being brought up in the states. the governments and central banks are cutting -- catching up in the right way and dealing with the financial system as well as addressing the direct fallout. that said, the session continues to rise in europe and the united states. it may be too early to call. we have to see when the infections stabilize. that's when the market will feel more comfortable to explore opportunities in the market. >> if you are staying defensive in this market, where do you go?
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we have seen traditional safe havens seeing incredible volatility. been as volatile as emerging-market equities. the last three days have been exceptional. before that, we warned that gold price does move against interest rates. his volatility is something that investors have to be mindful of. at this moment, there's a fair amount of dislocation. treasury markets and other traditional safe haven assets. the u.s. dollar clearly is there. investors can find some degree of protection. i believe in the medium to long bonds justign provide some value when investors are seeking protection despite the volatility we've seen in the last few days. investorseally seen stay in cash over the next two sessions.
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what we do need to see to big up things in asia and em? >> the development of the infections in europe and the states, once we start to see some of the measures that government is implement a having an effect when the case of infection start to slow down or top out, that would be a very important signal for investors to reconsider or review that allocation. at the same time, as government and central banks rollout more measures trying to smooth out some of the liquidity situation in various markets, that would be helpful to soothe market sentiment. management,asset thank you so much for joining us today. we have plenty more insight to the market uproar with our guests. >> we will have plenty more to come on daybreak asia. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> the ecb has launched an extra emergency bond buying program worth 750 billion euros in the latest attempt to calm markets and protect the euro zone economy such a volatile recession for the first time since 2013. let's bring in the deutsche bank hisf economist for reaction. great to have you with us again. is this christine lagarde's whatever it takes moment. she said that these extra very times are calling for its ordinary measures, but they will support the euro, but they will expand qe. what more can they potentially do? real impressed -- were you impressed? .> it is impressive you don't do major policy
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decisions on midnight on wednesdays. it shows you how serious they are in terms of trying to stabilize things. what is important about this is that there are two elements to the virus and the impact it has on the economy. the virus on its own is having an impact that when stores are being closed-end workers don't get paid, we will see layoffs and challenges, that will mean that the virus itself is creating problems for the economy. , forimportant link companies to stay in business. there's this added issue of financial markets. it's a whole different dimension that really doesn't have anything to do with the problems of the virus. this package starts to address the second issue, the knocked down affects from what is happening in the financial markets. it will likely be successful in common things down. the magnitude, we can debate. it depends on how long the virus will be here. it is something that will be very targeted at calming ducats my own -- markets down.
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>> president trump has signed that second virus relief bill. this is part of that $1.2 trillion package that the president is pushing. we have seen the house and senate passed those bills. now the president has signed them into law. the measures will include paid sick leave, food assistance, financial help for virus testing. , were the bill was signed saw lawmakers working on another proposal. all of this could actually cost the u.s. about $1.3 trillion. let's get back to you. we continue to see these fiscal measures coming up from u.s. and european nations. how important is it that these funds are actually dispersed quickly and they reach people sin? -- soon? >> it is absolutely critical. we need to get the money into the hands of people who will spend it. if you send a check to a household, and when we saw that
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in 2008, it took two months. fiscal policy has to challenge that it takes time before the things they vote on the in dish open the economy. it's targeted at trying to calm things down in measured markets while the get all the fiscal packages and initiatives -- there are several phases to the fiscal initiatives. it will begin to kick in and support consumers and companies. implications,e even legally? more significantly, the economic implications of the inclusion of commercial paper in this announcement. thatat's important about is that the ecb is essentially saying, there was a lot of discussion about qe. they are basically saying, we
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can buy any asset at any time of any size. significant. it's an attempt to try to say that the knock on effects from the information system, it's not as if the virus is not bad enough on its own. the turbulence in the financial system that central banks are trying to calm things down. that will not directly help consumers or corporate in terms of avoiding layoffs, situations where you think about whether consumers will get paid. it is trying to keep the financial system open to keep the wheels spinning so that funding is available so that the financial system is supported in terms of corporate that need cash including on commercial paper programs. the short answer is that it is happel -- helpful in the sense of trying to reach the ultimate goal of making sure we limit the
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negative impact on the economy as a result of the virus. >> as we have policymakers on the financial and economic side doing what they can to inject some normality and function into very dysfunctional markets at the moment, how concerned are you on the health care side? i've seen your modeling for hospital beds in the u.s. in the scenarios we are projecting for the pandemic spread. how concerned are you? >> as such, the problem is that there's a limited amount of hospital beds in the u.s.. around 100,000 intensive care that. there's about one minute -- million hospital beds in total. there's a strong limit to how many people can be treated. about 70% are already occupied. the answer is, it's all about limiting the spread of the disease. this is what markets are grappling with at the moment. when we begin to see a flattening out?
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there's a lot of encouragement in conversations we had in new york about what we have seen in china and korea. also japan in terms of flattening out the virus curves. we have not seen that in the u.s.. the fear is that the virus is still out there and we sold don't know how many people have it. we don't know how big the problem is. in that sense, any discussion about capacity of the health care system becomes quite important. >> what's the risk of this outbreak exacerbating some of the inequalities that we see in the health care system and socially with paid sick leave being available to some but not to others? >> a very important aspect of this discussion. look across income distribution. people with low incomes tend to have less paid sick leave and less paid leave generally. the consequence of that is that if there is less paid sick leave and you get sick, that means
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that you will need to go to your work to get paid. on top of that, if you don't get paid to stay home, even if you are sick, there's a risk that you have no other choice. in that sense, the risks are magnified for those groups who don't have paid sick leave. that's why an important part of the package today is trying to target the specific problem of paid sick leave to make sure that groups across the board have more paid sick leave. -- inis a higher risk of countries that have less paid sick leave. there may be more spreading of the virus. people don't stay home because they can afford to. -- can't afford to. it is important in the current situation. >> how will this affect the labor market? secretary mnuchin was talking about 20% unemployment rate here in the u.s.. >> this is really important. tonight in new york, we don't have the data yet. we get that tomorrow morning.
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jobless claims. some states have already normally-- connecticut would have 3000 jobless claims. it is now around 30,000 and jobless claims. that is a tenfold increase. one risk is that the end rate goes up. it could be quite a surprise to the upside. it measures how many people show up at the anaplan in office and ask front of limit benefits. , wehat starts to go up would have a very difficult situation. not only are we seeing the economy be weaker on the consumer side. we are seeing more people lose their jobs. that would be a vicious spiral. fiscal policy is trying to address this. ecb packets will not address this directly. they should try to address this as quickly as volatile -- possible. we are trying to flatten out the recession curve in terms of the
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negative impact on the economy of the virus. >> thank you so much for joining us. deutsche bank chief economist with us. let's take a look at the currency situation across the region. we have this liquidity crisis hitting fs positions. few people wanting to bet against king dollar. a little bit more across other currencies. the bloomberg dollar index hit the highest on record. we are seeing strength when it comes to dollar-yen. still awaiting that fixing later today. that rebound in the aussie dollar didn't last long. we are trading at 5768. that's what we are seeing when it comes to trading in the long as well. this is bloomberg. ♪
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♪ >> we are getting the latest labor market numbers out of australia. this is for the month of february, well before the coronavirus took effect. 26,700 in terms of the number of jobs added to the economy in february. that's better than the expectation of over 6000. the unemployment rate actually getting lower to 5.1%. we had seen a gradual grind
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their when it comes to the unemployed rate. participationn -- staying steady. full-time employment seeing an additional 6700 jobs. part-time, 20,000 jobs. let's get more analysis from our economists. we look at the numbers for february, this will take a huge hit coming into margin beyond. >> that's right. we might not even see the march side of it. the survey is in the first week or two of the month. we see the rolling dislocations and social distancing beginning to ramp up with an australian's economy, we will be seeing those impacts coming through in april figures. when we are looking at this as policymakers, they have to be taking a bit of a guess as to how bad it's going to be.
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we have some announcements already about staff being furloughed by qantas. our large supermarket chains, given the precautionary buying or panic buying that has been occurring, they have been ramping up their staffing to try to keep the shelves stocked. it will be a mix. we can safely assume that we will be seeing, over the course of the next couple of months, some big declines coming through. it depends on how high that an employment rate is. that is where we are looking at things. good figures today but this is history. we have to be looking forward. policy has to adjust to this rapid shift. >> we are probably expecting the outbreak to create distortions in the labor market as well. what would the rba be thinking about as they go into this urgency made -- emergency meeting?
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what are you expecting for how qe looks in australia? >> there's no doubt, there was likely to be a cut mirroring what we saw earlier in the week with other central banks. next stepses to the for policy, inflation targeting is gone. this is for central banks. for the rba, it's about making sure that we target financial stability and support fiscal policy. that will be some form of unconventional policy. bond buying to some degree. we don't think the rba will be announcing a fixed amount of buying. they will be announcing what looks like it's going to be a yield curve control, tightening levels of yield across different points in the curve. we can see the way australia's others,ket, like some .as been preparing itself bond buying will be targeted at
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the short end. uncertainty, market participants are clearly not comfortable at the moment in the 10 year or the yacht -- longer bond yield. even as we are counting down to the rba announcement, it may be causes or tips their hand or hat to doing something further out the curve. that will be the only thing. i think we will see something to support the functioning of credit markets and lending of banks. along those lines, following the rba, we anticipate that there might be announcements today from australia's banking around some of the capital measures that have been imposed on banks in recent years. perhaps lessening those to help whether -- weather the next few
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months which will be quite difficult. >> thank you very much. it's time now for another market check. >> let's take a look at aussie assets this morning. little reaction in the australian dollar. staying below 60. the data we just got his history. -- is history. 200, off session lows after giving up a earlier gain of 3%. out bonds. the 10 year yield rising to a july high with the curve steepening ahead of the rba update. checking in on the broader move. stocks looking mix in asia with a relatively modest move. the kospi reversing its earlier gain. the yen holding about one away. u.s. 10-year gilts nudging lower by four basis points. check out crude.
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70% asping as much as central bank some lease more stimulus. the ecb commitment to supporting the economy, driving risk on moves. dax futures fighting. futures rising as much as 151 ticks. with the latest on the market, let's get you to ritika gupta in new york for the first word headlines. >> the european central bank is willing out the heavy artillery after an emergency conference on the coronavirus. it's launching a purchase program worth 750 billion euros. christine lagarde saying she's committed to the euro. europe has passed china in the number of infections for the first time. eu officials are weighing a bailout fund as the eurozone slides into recession. president has invoked the defense production act to boost masks andantivirus
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other protective equipment. cases in new york nearly double. the president returned to his theme of blaming beijing for the infection, defending his use of virus."se "the chinese the u.s. stock exchange will shut its rating for temporarily next week and moved a fully electronic working. an employee tested positive for the coronavirus. the floors will pause for monday as will trading in san francisco. the new york stock exchange boss says the markets should remain open and accessible. the chinese pharmaceutical company says it is one regulatory approval to start trials of a coronavirus vaccine. they say the treatment has been developed alongside military scientists and will undergo testing on patients and lujan. 250 people have been infected by
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arrivals going into new zealand. the country has one of the lowest numbers of infections from coronavirus. below 30 as of now. we are expecting the rbnz to join the rba into considering quantitative easing sooner than it would've liked. it's expected to make that historically to qe sooner than expected. there markets are increasingly becoming stressed and dysfunctional. let's get you a quick check of the latest business flash headlines. qantas will suspend all international flights from late this month following a call by the government for people not to travel abroad. employees will be shut down temporarily. virgin is also grounding its international fleet for 2.5 months. it is cutting domestic capacity
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and half. world's biggest airlines is looking at grounding the bulk of its 115 eight 380 superjumbo's. the coronavirus ravages travel demand. emirates has cut 20 of its planes from its service. it plans to delay the delivery from more -- of more from airbus. it is encouraging staff to take leave. two of india's most high-profile airlines are considering grounding planes. slump ass seen traffic much as 30% in india with its international flights hit by travel restrictions. qatar a is also considering delaying the delivery of its first batch of boeing 787 three miners. dreamliners. >> trip.com is projecting a
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first potter -- quarter sales slump. it expects revenue to fall by half compared to the same time a year ago. stephen engle joins us now from hong kong. another business getting hit by the pandemic and all these travel restrictions we are continuing to get. >> absolutely hit hard. trip.com is no domestically in china as the largest online travel services provider. there are two sides to this story. i will get to the second half of the story. that is guidance. earnings beat the streets handily. they had a fairly good revenue and earnings picture on the fourth quarter. it is the forward guidance for the first quarter is what we are looking at. that's a projection for a 45-50% decline in first-quarter revenue. that might be an optimistic outlook given the quarantines
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and the closing off of borders around the world. china, which it provides the services four. they are not traveling, very few people are traveling. revenue will go down. in the fourth quarter, pretty good set of numbers. accommodation revenue, reservations, 12% up. transportation ticketing, up 1.6. package revenue, up 11%. corporate travel revenue, up 34%. all these numbers are going to look very different when the report for the first quarter. the top executive as well as the ceo in the last couple weeks have announced they will not take a salary for the for seeable future and all top executives taking cuts to their salary. >> what sort of belt-tightening measures are we seeing so far? my work and we expect? >> their conference call started
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at 8:00 your time. -- new york times. we are waiting to see if they can get guidance on what kind of further cost-cutting they will do. this is the statement that james went put up the company last week. it was seen by bloomberg news. saying that domestic academic situations is entering a relatively stable stage. that's good. internationally, it looks more bleak. she says we must take a rational view and prepare for a long-term fight against the epidemic. that's a global view as well. is the ticker code in the united states. 35.5% year to date. it's about half the price it was a year ago. not surprising. u.s. stocks down in the month of march. >> thank you.
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>> let's stay with earnings. tencent delivered disappointing result. a difficult advertising environment in 2020. voicing caution about have a contraction in china might affect its businesses. joining us now is senior director. great to have you with us. this is quite surprising. we thought tencent would do well with all these chinese people at home, playing games. what happened? >> yeah. as a lot of people spend time at home, they spend more time online. we have seen people spend about 20% of their time online more in february this year than one year before. ,hey are doing more videos entertainment, social, gaining. they are in the scope of $.10 business. business.'s
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because people are not going a lot of the off-line businesses are being impacted like restaurants, entertainment, off-line entertainment, recreation, hospitality. businesses can be negatively impacted. as businesses are facing this they may beme, reluctant to spend advertising. that can also impact tencent's revenue. prospect depending on which sector you are looking at. >> are we going to see belt-tightening measures? so far, costs have swelled to ure new users and to challenge its rival. >> yeah.
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it is very controversial. movie free of a charge to all of its users across all the video streaming platforms. they hope that it would increase advertising revenue and help increase user acquisitions. i think we need to unpack the long-term prospects, whether this would turn to write -- financial results. it would take some time before this impact will show up on its earning report. expect itckly do you to recover its payment business? >> for tencent, in china overall, we have passed the peak of infection. a lot of businesses are returning to normal operation.
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are slowlyants, they opening. for retail business like ,upermarkets and grocery, those more than 90%, are open. tencentthat would help to recover some of the mobile payment business. looking into the second quarter, i think that china would slowly get back to normal. that would also help improve its earning prospects. >> how long is the runway to growth for the classrooms business? eventually, schools are going to have to reopen. do you expect to see any permanent shift in the strength of that market and business? >> yeah. now, the classroom has been lifted as one of the official platforms for online
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schooling. depending on the arrangement it or theh the government financial education, how much they will become been sated for providing this platform. this can have some positive impact. on the other hand, i think for people, for the students and teachers using this platform, they use it for free. hope thatncent can they can retake some of those users after this pandemic so that they become increased user base so that it can also help increase its advertising revenue. i think that's probably this underlining they are looking for after this outbreak. >> we are all looking for silver linings right now, army -- aren't we? we will get more analysis on tencent and the chinese tech
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♪ >> trading activities will be conducted remotely. david ingles joins us now. it has been an extraordinary few days for that market. >> one of the first things to know, it's been extraordinary. the philippines was shot. the shipping carefully -- came fairly abruptly. i got notice from the exchange at midnight. the following day, things were already shut. yesterday, fx markets opening up. consider a couple things. how southeast asia traded tuesday and wednesday, down over 5%. parts of the equity market for southeast asia.
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the other thing i want to point out is that the market has been capitulating in manila. people stuck in their position. there is selling pressure that would've built up to begin with. it's going to be very volatile at the open. surge in the u.s. dollar that we had overnight, that doesn't bode well for emc em's in general. people start to liquidate their positions in favor of simple cash. certainly want to watch. drawdown has been substantial for this market as well. you want to watch when things open up at the same time the china cash market opens up. >> would support coming from more central-bank action expected today, we already have the ecb action. >> well telegraphed already.
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the narrative early this week was 25 basis points. that has now shifted. we are speaking with the central bank governor. they are leaning towards 50. i would imagine markets are not trading. that will come in the afternoon. any incremental help that would have been brought was priced in a coup takes ago. go, he is saying that one of the things that actually worrying about markets right now is the rates market is not actually functioning properly. liquidity issues, what have you. that is preventing the markets inm actually pricing and -- the uncertainty and using the rates market as a hedge and safe haven. in other words, you're getting a lot of price action.
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it might not be accurately reflected in the price. one to watch as well, perhaps one of the reasons why yields have remained elevated. developing story on the back of the news coming out of central banks the last 12 hours or so. >> our bloomberg markets inc. shirt. -- let's get a quick preview of what to watch. >> tencent very much in focus giving -- given its earnings. product on the watch as they posted higher net profit in 2018. they cut their dividend on fire is concerned. could see more stroke low schuurs and restructuring. we areg in on what seeing on the ecb stimulus boost. stock futures gaining ground.
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checking in on asian assets. we're seeing the kospi move deeper into the red. samsung down 3%. nikkei easing as well. cash handouts are still at an idea stage. on what focus still central bankers may do as well as governments to unleash fiscal and monetary policy. that's it for this hour of bloomberg markets asia. our coverage continues. stand by for bloomberg markets the china open. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> ultimately, you filled a development that became the biggest opponent in new york at that time. that's the time warner development. >> i was motivated, like most people, you want to do something impactful in life. >> you decided to build something bigger which became the biggest real estate development in the history of our country. >> by building a live workplace environment, right in the middle of new york. >> how come your team isn't in the super bowl? >> that's a good question. >> would you fix your thai place? >> people wouldn't recognize me if my tie was fixed but ok.
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