u.s. on lockdown. the moste country with coronavirus deaths. officials warn trials could year.a johns hopkins says the global death toll has topped 10,000. russia says it won't submit to the lled blackmail from kingdom. president trump says -- well, good morning, good afternoon, good evening. now, we have a full roundup of the markets. taylor, finally a little bit of after the central banking action in the last couple of days. u.s. deputy futures up. futures in europe up, and sandy berger was saying, watch ut for the triple witching hour, which may bring more volatility >> as if the markets didn't need that, right? given what a week it has

been. i think the 10% moves we've seen n any direction, 4% on an up day is a little bit of a sigh of relief on this friday. we begin with the highest toll from the coronavirus is in italy. china's ntry surpassing numbers. italian fatalities topping 3,400. lockdown nationwide continues. europe at the epicenter of the disease. france reporting a 41% rise in deaths. 28%., an increase of now, here in the united states to california and the governor newsom ordering the entire state to self-isolate at home. that's 40 million people. far the move is the most stringent measure in the u.s. to curb the spread of the virus, allowing people to leave their homes, but for

groceries and medicine. otherwise, social interaction is limited. businesses, by the way, not deemed essential are closed. negotiators of post-brexit trade talks are now isolation because of the coronavirus after showing symptoms of the virus, the chief negotiator david franz isolating himself earlier on thursday. mr. frost's counterpart nnouncing on twitter he tested positive for the disease. global news 24 hours a day on air. powered by more than 2,700 jurm journalists and analysts. bloomberg. francine taylor. this is what your markets are doing now. there's a little bit of a rally underway. say a little bit, because we've seen in the past where european stocks were up and and then we saw something that actually made them nervous, and we saw a reversal. i guess for the moment let's it. it's a good way to end a week

here we saw unprecedented volatility where we saw it down a couple of times, but when we government ot of intervention, government reassurance, government funds, of central y a lot bank action with packages. it wasn't so much on the interest rates. giving port to small medium size enterprises and being there for the bigger ones. stocks.ing at european 4.5% higher, and that's your dollar. up quickly. taylor, i'll show you some of the european bonds for the at 1.58, eld there taylor >> i wanted to do a board the week that was. it was a look at correlation. is equity seeing futures rising here, but then coming year yield also down to 105. bloomberg dollar index also coming off of record highs that saw eight straight days of strength. now a little bit of weakness need for rhaps the

cash and the dollar is lessening bit, and then as i have said before, vix at 65. elevated but feels less panicky than the 80 handle there on the vix. francine. francine: maybe where we're price panic is on the oil where we're seeing a lot of anxiousness. oil continues climbing after its single day gain. u.s. president donald trump says in the price ne war between saudi arabia and russia. that's rough crude markets. all of this let's go to our chief oil correspondent javier black. have covered the markets for at least 15 years, and we've never seen anything like it. hand you say russia won't cooperate with saudis blackmailing, e but president trump saying i can come in and do something about t >> yeah. russia is playing an interesting diplomatic game. trying to avoid blame as

having triggered this oil price war. f you read between the lines, the door is open on their own conditions and to do exactly what they propose about ten days vienna, which was not to cut production. about -- they are not talking about anything that will really change what is in the oil markets. this is the most difficult question today, but is there an ideal price of oil for saudi arabia? are they targeting something gain ould mean that they market share and put shale --ducers on >> probably prices for sure put says u.s. producers on the need, prices p are too low for saudi arabia. saudi arabia would like to have omething to continue growing, to continue expanding the economy. the main problem is that price it would be good enough for

saudi arabia is also good enough for the shale producers. to make a a needs compromise and will need to ccept lower prices than today >> sorry. go ahead >> i was going to say want lower than the , but lower past week. $70, and probably saudi arabia ill have to accept prices closer to $40 to $50. >> i ask you that same question, see what t around and that means for u.s. shale. what do they do? well, u.s. shale, as you were mentioning is in big trouble at moment. at current prices -- some of the producers cannot even cover their operating costs. that they can do is hope that there is diplomatic between russia and saudi arabia. perhaps brokered by president not, we are, and if going to see a lot of pain in exas, new mexico, oklahoma, north dakota, and we're going to see a lot of companies going out of business, and that will be in the best hope for the

producers to see weaker u.s. shale producers go down. you, supply st for or demand? >> at the moment the biggest demand.de definitely even if we have a solution to we opec situation today, still are facing right now a massive drop in demand. i'm hearing from oil companies oil traders that demand is down at least 10 million barrels day. that's 10% of global oil demand. no going to be difficult matter what saudi arabia and russia do to offset that huge drop in demand. not driving, not flying. industries shut down. a big problem right now? all the , thanks for insight. bloomberg's chief energy correspondent. right now is union bank chief financial economist. chris, as always, thank you for unprecedentedthis

time. given what we've seen over the believe weeks, do you markets will stabilize thanks to willnment intervention, or central banks just be enough? we're yeah, i think starting to stabilize here. you know, a lot of times we hought -- we have -- we just did this 12 years ago during ehman, so we kind of know what to expect, what markets freeze up. dow -- when the dow stock index fell 36% lie to lefor the year, that was discounting a lot, and it's not what does the central bank have to throw at the economy, what is it going to be package from washington? it's stocks just get too cheap time, and i think at the moment 36% off the high for the year, that's a substantial to discount tries this coronavirus recession, if

you will >> okay. what does a coronavirus recession actually look like? i don't know how many jobs will lost, you know, what kind of we get.n will >> i guess the idea is coronavirus recession, it's like an illness. illness, you get sick and you get over it after two weeks. ow, we're arguing whether the forcing of industry and people to their homes. we're arguing whether that's going to be two weeks or 12 at the moment, but the idea is it's still temporary. to ink that's important realize. this is the quickest downturn in we've probably ever experienced. certainly in my lifetime from bottom. it's just collapsed because, on't forget, a month ago we created 273,000 jobs. hat's going to probably be

negative 200,000 next month. francine: the contraction in the economy. like?does the rebound look v, u, or l? chris: that's what we always trying to get , my sea legs back. economists love recessions, of course. i mean, they're really forced to guess at the future and asked a lot of questions. at the moment all i did was i put zero growth in the first quarter. get that until the end of april. -8% in the second quarter of year real gdp. hen, coming back 1% third quarter. 2% fourth quarter this year. slowly, but the important thing is we at least come back to 2%. erase the 8% drop necessarily very quickly, but we to 2% growth? > we trook at the fiscal stimulus. one person could get a check for

$1,200 or so. preliminary numbers that have been floating around. while that does help meet some fixed costs, consumers can't spend that money right now, so is that the right way to thinking about this? hris: if you have your smartphones i guess you have, but deliveries are slowing to people's homes. don't think the government knows what else to do. if you lose your job, there's stabilizers us -- like unemployment benefits that can be paid to you if you can line.nnen it's apparently very difficult deluge w because of the of unemployment. governments don't know what to do more than throw money at the problem. i would be a little bit concerned about how we finance if that's what it's going to be fiscal stimulus. a big number. ten-year push up treasury yields more than what's

going on right now if the fed it.sn't buy that's one -- that was one of the dangers about the tax cuts and jobs act. once you spend that money on nothing left.have we have a $20 trillion federal debt, national debt. pushing e can't keep that higher >> chris, thank you so much. we'll get back to chris there ufg union bank. coming up on bloomberg's open, a to ersation you don't want miss with mohammed al arian, hief economic advisor and bloomberg columnist. that interview 9:30 a.m. in new york. that's 1:30 p.m. in london, and this is bloomberg.

>> uber surged after telling billions it will have of dollars in cash. executive spoke exclusively to bloomberg about withstand ity to potential losses posed by the coronavirus? scenario -- the edge case scenario that we outlined assumes that will be ly the world down 80% for the rest of the and i think what we're seeing with hong kong is their hit, but once the health authorities get control of the situation, life does return, and when life returns, essentially returns. instantly in hong kong we've had

people going back to work, and work, go being bah to commuters start using our services that they always have, think if we assume that authorities, the cities, the governor, the president, all over the world decisions the hard and the necessary moves to ontrol the virus then eventually life will come back, and when life comes back and people start going back to work, they're going to start using uber. just like in hong kong we saw a deep trough and then a slow recovery. there's no reason that we won't see that even in the circumstance where you're down rest of the year, and we're still going to have $4 billion of cash. to have access to a $2 billion revolver. we think it's highly, highly, unlikely, but we wanted to make sure that our investors we are planning for the worst case or we're essentially calculating what the worst case is and then we're

operational to make sure that we're ready really for anything. francine: we obtained a memo you sent to your employees earlier in the week where you scary, but itis is is not a full financial meltdown, saying that you are on incredibly solid financial footing and your costs are variable, and you can manage city, day ss city by by day in a way unlike any other company in the world. coronavirus is new, and a lot isn't understood. seen, is what you have ride-sharing safe? safe?od delivery >> i think that assuming that right steps are being taken, then absolutely, i do think it's safe. asset-like model, and we're seeing in hong kong, in taiwan, we know in china, for example, ride-sharing is coming back as well. if people get back to work, then ride-sharing is absolutely safe, variable cost nature

that we have makes our business resilient. on the other side, on food, actually seeing food especially in many countries restaurants are not shut down. holding in, d is and it's very strong, right? logistichis incredible it's -- ore than ever e actually think that the food business is a great stream diversifier so to speak. safe, and we s are think they're especially safe because we have the best balance heet >> what about the customers who are scared to get in a car and scared of getting the virus? who are afraid of driving passengers? would you put your kids in an right now?

>> i think these are deeply personal decisions, and it circumstance. i think you can't have

this is bloomberg surveillance. let's get straight back to chris to talk about what bond have been doing. it looks as if the controversial -- highly about tosial series is

be put to the test. is that right, chris? that bonds across the world have been shifting, are they expected to shift and chris: it's been difficult to tell. i mean, ten-year treasury yields were down at they lly 0.3%, and then bounced 1.25% roughly. o one is quite sure if there's rationale behavior going on there or if there's some sort of treasury etween futures and cash markets that cause it. move so market violently, it's usually because somebody has been stung, and losing a lot of money. a lot of people or one big player. what's t quite sure going on there. it's on everyone's lips at this point. the federal government trillion $1.2

additional debt offering by the the only auctions, and person who can -- is the federal it's ironic that fed chair powell in his former government organization studying fiscal issues and the federal government, and he didn't sound very much in favor of some sort of nod-nod-wink-wink partnership treasury and the fed to underwrite the treasury's treasury bond p yields from going higher. he sounded like we would never that, but in a way because of what they're doing right now and unspoken manner they billion additional treasuries thursday and friday after the latest statement week the federal reserve >> you are no longer going to because you wrote in

at those levels, no one cares. our thank you. we're closing in on three hours or so. in on . firmly holding the gains that we've seen overnight up about 4%. ten-year yield still continuing to come down. 1.01%. weakness, king finally, after eight straight days of gains. the bloomberg dollar index after record strength yesterday, vix, 65 still feels elevated but much lower than the 80.cky coming up on bloomberg day break america, conversation with laurie, rbc capital markets. this is bloomberg.

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francine: this is bloomberg. we have all of your market covered. we have a lot more things coming up. great exclusive interviews. for example, the spanish economy minister. now let's get straight to bloomberg. first with you in new york city with viviana. >> we begin with the highest death toll. it's in italy. that country surpassing china's numbers. fatalities now topping 3,400. nationwide lockdown continues. urope remaining the epicenter of the disease. rise. reporting a 41% now to president donald trump wading into the oil price war russia. saudi arabia and the u.s. president saying he could intervene and wanted to break the deadlock. as he faces calls from lawmakers to help the domestic oil industry. esterday seeing the biggest spike in oil on record. lowest ws, though, the

settlement price in 18 years. we end with pharmaceuticals. planning to donate six million malaria tablets to help u.s. hospitals. drug that's been touted by president trump as a potential treatment for coronavirus. the israeli company is one of world's largest producers of the drug. of phlorapin.form more than 2,700 journalists and analysts in more countries. this is bloomberg. francine, taylor? >> steve, to kick things off, i wanted to show a chart here a month ago we were all banging our heads against the wall because valuations were at record high levels. rankly, though, it has been a precipitous drop. we're in the fastest bear market ever. on valuation, does anything look attractive to you at this point? it's important to

just recognize that valuation bring the market down. valuation is probably not something you can look at right where really figure out the market turns. from the potential fundamental analysis to a lot of behavioral analysis in these markets well, i think at first one of the things that we want to think

about for equity markets is what is a functioning bond market? of credit? cost fair enough, again, you can get in the near own term and think about where this should be for a longer term which will be nothing ike this, but if you have credit markets that are not cost of oviding a true credit that are not showing us is, the cost for capital higher up in the cap structure, then you should be at least inpect about what's going on the equities market. again, none of this, again, how people move long-term portfolios. they will tend to make big this, butat times like in terms of just assessing what the value of equity should be short run especially, we're first looking to the bond market for some signs of any lity before making pronouncements. theteve, we're just getting

bank of russia dropping forward action guidance from its statement. imagine that because the situation includes if not 100% but, steve, e, overall, we heard from a number of european governments, and the one with the president acron, the first one to say no business, small or big, will be allowed to fail under these circumstances. to have a similar pledge from the u.s. if this?nments can afford >> i think that there will be an operational question as to how done.can be i mean, some businesses are ndividuals, and in the case of the united states i think we could manage a macro-policy response. can we really manage a high micro-policy response? the economy changes fairly ynamically, and demand for particular goods or services from any and every business, you so much change and

loss in usual times, so it a rhetorical to say that nothing should be affected by the virus, but i don't think that that practically can be done in the united states. it's not to say that a stimulus help, and it is very much needed. i mean, focused fiscal policy sort of like an insurance policy, a disaster make sure thatwe short-term furlows in employment don't become long-term we ployment is exactly what need. we need the boldest action imaginable right now. think it's terribly realistic to say that nothing will change. in an economy like the united states. do you know how bad it gets? is it a couple of months, or do you have to wait until the end of the summer? about the impact that this pandemic and pathogen companies? think, know, it's i

again, the worst of the decline right now. i think people could be rebounding from is quite d declines possible. all the have to have virus cases. travel, tourism, hospitality, these things will be remarkably depressed. they can bounce back, but how ar does that get back to where we were previously in a short period of time is the question. certainly think financial markets first, again, will find the bottom before the economy just think we have

to take right now very, very you know, how severe the services slump will be. in china we've seen the economy get 5% smaller than the period. annualized rate of decline in the economy was large double-digit rates of decline, that appeared at first just centered in the manufacturing sector and production, and it widely much more spread, but when people think about the stability of the economy because of its services sector, it's exactly that, which is plunging right now. again, shelter in place, self-quarantine. of things are preventing sales at restaurants, occupancy.ism, hotel these things have utterly plunged, and it employs a very share of the population. that are 6 million employed in the united states. 10% that work in

restaurants and hotels > steve wieting, chief investment strategist. our thank you. this is a through black swan set of events. announce this into the bond market, which is coming up on bloomberg. a conversation with td securities head of rate york, gy, 9:00 a.m. new 1:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪

>> when you shut down an economy n a pandemic, you have mass layoffs, and a lot of small and midsize businesses that could be shuttered. the goal ought to be to keep the economy going. that's why you need to have some aid to businesses to keep their workers in place.

not a ballout. it's just a mechanism for funding workers and you need to individuals pport who do lose their jobs. during this >> that was professor of economics and finance at the columbia graduate school of speaking to bloomberg's david weston. david joins us now. as he said, away, check for collars 1,000 is people are considering. you don't need the checks if you keep people employed. what are your thoughts? > he was a chairman of the economic advisor for george w. bush when he was president, and has had some experience. grants instead of loans. they can't repay the loans. is that even within the realm of possibility?

is in the realm of possibility. if you look up on capitol hill, they're rushing to see how much money they can get out the door, provided they can actually get together and make a decision. they've got issues just getting people in a room right now. i think both grants and loans the table. hubbard, he to glen said loans might do the trick. you have to get money out right now. for example, he is suggesting we give ke why don't them a guarantee from government hey can take to their local bank and get to cash right now ather than waiting for the treasury to cut checks? of how you echanism would bring cash to the people? place when it works? >> both very good questions. are they ready? sense are they inclined to do it, and the other is a mechanism to do it. i think on the one hand all are ations are the banks

ready to step up. they want to step up and do the rick, and the fed has made it easier by relieving some of the capital requirements. the question is the mechanism there? on the weekends in the hamptons, a lot of people and the he hamptons, banks were limiting the amount of cash you could take out of he atm >> thank you so much. david weston, balance of power i'm looking forward to this week's episodes. well, today's episode. it's a daily show. straight to the setup. that is, of course, raging through what central banks can what it means for the banks. as always, thank you so much for joining us. i know you also created a setup so you can really assess the and also you t, measure how many people are sick and how many people are infected so how many people have died far. is there a pattern, and if there is that pattern what does it like for the world economy

two months from now? see, first, our --rantine and >> globally based on that experience. some caveats. so far the impeer cal evidence and that's the ame size as people and -- people are tracking what you want. a way is re fwhoshg every other european country since the first outbreak track y announced we can day one for the pandemic, and track.in little in a way about two weeks ago we across allrning sign european countries in the u.s. to say this is how many days you

have before you need to lock down. cases, 400,000 people. case 400,000 ne people. months later, and of spreading has been pretty much -- we think the u.k. is about seven, eight days, land, and wend the three, you know, it's four days behind, and now you have france six, seven days, and have about two weeks we've had quite insane week on the market. given the infections and, of atrse, the deaths are always the forefront of our minds. we saw governments saying that either help ually with -- or even consider taking part in some of the countries that go under.

we have central banks. what's the worst case scenario? it's a recession? given?recession a can we get off of something? see, first of all, i would concur, but first of all, pandemic was 1918 of a real size, and i think no one seen it. secondly, no computers can actually go back because there's data. i think we have, first of all -- secondly, what we can solve 2%peerically is we have about loss. full lockdown. it takes china two and a half, months of full lockdown or gdp this year will be minus four, five. i think you can apply this number ballpark to all the affected, but go in, so gold shelter has paid off. does it mean for europe?

this year guarantee the infection. the issue is going to be v-shaped, l-shaped, u-shaped, or as i do believe, w, v shape. the reason i say that is the pandemic, but the first lockdown, you -- then prepare and step up your own hospital, and then the vaccine spreads again soosz you economy.opening the you know, nature is stronger. result, i do expect about zero. so, central bank action will be -- i think here policymakers are actually demonstrating an understanding, first, you fully do not grasp the risk of the pandemic. people with u have chiropractor diseases filling your ic units, i can tell you wakens very bank

fast, and i think here people on worlding in the g10 super fast. the bit more worried of .merging markets i want to talk about a potential -- it'sbound that weave relatively healthy >> first, the state of economy was good and strong, but remember, for ten years have been as good as it gets. if you y you have -- earnings, ples of margins. to buy.left asset ly there was no classes offered. sell.eek nothing left to

it was within a month you have 180 degrees. this is going to be a permanent issue. are going to get lots and we'll have delay. if you have savings, you can two, three or months. if you don't have savings, that gets more public. believed in a way europe given the universal ealth care system, flatly higher staging rate more widespread. less inequality. should be able to with stand the shock. through athink you go 2008 scenario. now, in some industries, you know, i traveled the world. correct the airlines have spent 95% of cash flow over the years, and now they are

taxpayers bail out? no. bailout, the government should give a check --they did for >> tweeting about that. he lines are buying back $50 billion. $55 billion buyback. coming up, oliver bloom, chairman and ceo on day break. by sales expected to deline about 10%. this is bloomberg.

let's get back to chief officer and founder of -- when do we start figuring better?when things get does it have to be lack of infections? for themost resolved it moment in two months. the rest of the world, can we pattern?hat see, first, aye not

been in china. have been to hong kong and then singapore. i think the asian track record will be better than the european and the u.s. track record. the issue is, one, we ultimately person.trace every it's a track. think what we will see here is i expect the slowdown in new cases. deaths, but in new cases infected in the next week within italy. if that happens, which is world health care system. i think at that point the world down ee that you can slow new cases. then out of china we have seen 35% conomy is back

basically within eight, ten weeks. hat sort of thing will happen to the rest of the world. i'm also -- market of the credit analysis that weave been talking about, we're looking at double b credit spreads out here in the widening to 750 basis points over treasuries. given your outlook of what's pandemic, whatthe do you do in the credit market? well, i think this is stay uber high quality long, and we keep any level short. i think out of this crisis -- i to be extremely high. jump to the fold so much for joining

us today. a difficult time for everyone. now, this is what your markets are doing. there's quite a lot going on. hat i would say, markets stabilizing, actually, on the up after all the central bank action. this could change. danny berger was talking to us about triple -- quadruple action, which may add a lot more volatility to the market. the other story that we need to do a lot more on is, of course, going on with oil. vladimir putin, the president of he will not g submit to what he sees as saudi oil price blackmail. means is that the price war that's royaled global energy markets may possibly continue. we'll have plenty more on that. mohammed el-erian shortly. this is bloomberg. when you move homes, you move more than just yourself.

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the fifth-largest gdp in the world powers down. president trump signals he could intervene in a price war between saudi arabia and russia to help support prices, while texas talks about shutting some production. quadruple witching could cause wild swings in markets, with s&p 10 day volatility the highest the highest- since 1987. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak." i'm alix steel. i've never meant it more than today, thank god it's friday and the markets are closing. s&p futures are up by about 3%, the best day in years for a lot of global equity markets. s&p may be found some kind of base. made a tighter low and a tighter high within a broader range. that could be a good thing. dollar index looking at coming

off