francine: striking the deal, the u.s. agrees on a $2 trillion symbols package. brussels nears a bailout. finance ministers inched closer to unleashing aid for the countries hardest hit -- hardest hit by the pandemic. deaths in italy spike again. cases worst to come as top 400,000? president trump wants to reopen the economy by easter. but there are warnings of a longer shutdown. good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone. this is bloomberg surveillance, live from london. it has been an incredible 24 hours to redo it could have a bigger deal in terms of stimulus or support for each other for the nations of europe. but then you wonder what this lockdown means for how long, and interesting to see the two perspectives between what the residence as an what the governors say in the u.s., and a lockdown in india with 1.3

billion people. tom: it is nothing more than a states rights issue in the united states, the tension between the federal government and the 50 states. the size of the fiscal stimulus is extraordinary, way more than what we saw from president obama in 2009. just as importantly, the impulse of the fiscal stimulus over the short term is truly at a war-time level. francine: we are also getting some e flow figures. this is the month of march, german business confidence, and the index is 86.1 instead of the preliminary 87.7. march, i don't know whether -- it still seems quite strong. i know we will speak ahead of the if a in just a second. it is not having a big impact on the -- so the ifo march is holding on. if you look at current conditions, 93. this was for february, so it is backward looking, it does not

take into account a lot of what we saw. it will be interesting to see what the ifo president expects for the future. tom: let's get to the data right now before we get started. they did it is simple. after the huge market that we saw yesterday, we have goods -- good follow-through early in the morning in the united states. nevertheless, that followthrough off this deal, four or five hours ago. i want to point out oil. longleyer blas and alec have out a spectacular article today. i put it out on twitter and linkedin, and that clearly shows the delivery of oil will be way below the quoted price. oil with a two dollar or three dollar rebound, now a little bit south of their on physical delivery, really getting down to the low 20's on physical delivery. gold with that huge move yesterday, and a lot of talk back and forth about the why of gold up so big, but

nevertheless, there it is. francine? francine: first of all, looking a treasuries, treasuries are -- are stable. this is significant because the dollar really became the withncy around the world regards to stress. if you look at euro, it is up a touch today as region leaders look toward their own rescue package, which is why we are seeing a lift to european stocks, gaining 0.4%. yesterday was one of the best days on wall street in a generation. two things i want to watch out for first, wti crude oil claiming -- climbing toward $25 a barrel, and the bond yields, including the italian and german one. let's get straight now to a lot more on the german economy. i am delighted to be joined by the head of the iso institute.

thank you for joining us. first of all, when you look at the future prospects for germany, how bad do you think the recession will be? nowhat we see in the data is how the recession is hitting the german economy, really, so that is telling us the current situation is becoming worse, and the expectations are becoming a lot worse. it is a historic decline. this suggests we are heading toward a very sharp recession. the big unknown is the duration of the shutdown, so if this is just about a few weeks, that can be handled. but here is the great uncertainty. it could be two months, it could be more. and that would lead us a lot deeper into the recession. so i would say very serious. very serious,s but how does it compare to 2008? this is a health crisis. morphing into an economic crisis and will it also turn into a financial crisis? thanns: it is a lot worse

2008, and the reason is we are experiencing a real shutdown of the economy, and no stimulus can stop that parents stimulus packages can deal with the fallout, give money to people who do not work, but if people do not work for months, this will have a very serious impact. the key issue really is the shutdown, how can we limit it? if we cannot get out of it after a few weeks, i think this would be ok. if we can get-- out of it after a few weeks, i think this would be ok. if we cannot, that is a serious situation. weeks,ter the couple of has the austere reticence of germany been broken? there has been a multi-general reticence to perform any kind of budget or fiscal stimulus. has that tradition been broken? clemens: let us not forget there was a massive stimulus program

in the financial crisis in germany, and there is now an even bigger one. so there is no fundamental problem, i think, with not engaging in stimulus. but the debate here basically says it was good that we did not spend the money in the last year when the economy was relatively good, and everybody was asking for stimulus. it is good we did not do it because now we need to change things, and there is going to be a massive stimulus program this time. as i said, it is not going to help very much because we are shutting down the economy, and no stimulus program can stop that. francine: at iso -- tom: at iso, not only can you call recession, but what is the depth of the recession? clemens: the indicators are suggesting it is more serious 2008,he recession of 2009. we are moving into the unknown. there is huge uncertainty of the duration of the lockdown.

the likelihood is large that it will be worse than 2009. beyond that, we really don't know. it depends on how the economic develops -- how the epidemic develops. francine: worse in terms of unemployment or actual bankruptcies? clemens: worse on the gdp bankruptcies that will follow. here the government tries to hold against it, and stimulus programs can limit bankruptcies for some time, the same for unemployment. we will have short time work, so people staying at home be keeping their jobs, this will go into the millions, but we do not necessarily have these number of layoffs. we will have some layoffs, but again, if this is just about a few weeks, i think the number of layoffs will be limited. if it is longer, it will get worse. who will be most adversely affected? is it services, manufacturing,

or will manufacturing get back up as soon as it can? i don't know where you make the distinction. clemens: what we see in the data is that a couple of service sectors are badly affected. we know that hotels, restaurants, and we also see your factoring badly affected and how quickly will this change? the concern is that it will take time to get the value chains together again, to get everything moving. our economy is so interlinked, it does not help if german companies are opening up again but northern italian companies have to open up as well. the concern is that after the shutdown, we will need time to sort it all out. much,ne: thank you so clemens foos, the head of the ifo institute -- clemens fu is -- clemens fuest, the head of

the ifo institute. we will ask on the guest what the next package means for the euro area economy, where he sees the front line, and what it means for europe. this is bloomberg. ♪

pres. trump: i hope we can do this by easter. i think that would be a great thing for our country, and we are all working very hard to make that a reality. we will be meeting with a lot of people to see if it can be done. easter is a very special day for many reasons. >> i think the notion that we " in the "back to normal

month of april is absolutely inconceivable at this point. so i want to give people the truth because i think it helps us all to really get our expectations right. get to bloomberg first word news. we begin with the trump administration, descendent agreeing on a historic and massive stimulus plan. trillionor almost $2 in spending to boost the economy. most americans would get direct payments, small businesses would get aid to keep aid -- we get aid to keep employees on the payroll. it still must pass in the u.s. house. now to inpatient u.s. leaders with the economic shutdown. they have president donald trump's ear he wants to open up the economy by easter come as you heard. that is april 12. these officials still are having toward shutdown. indiana, massachusetts, oregon, west virginia. they are the latest order residents to stay home. the federal reserve tapping

blackrock in helping its massive debt buying program. blackrock will serve as an investment advisor. the firm is the world's largest asset manager. we end with the u.k., where bloomberg has learns tonight the british government plans to -- it is the government -- to close parliament temporarily. on march 31, parliament was already closed to take an easter break. global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in i amthan 120 countries, viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. easter is april 12 this year. to put that in perspective, many schools across the nation are framed out into late april. april 20, even further out than that. quite a statement from the president yesterday. let's do a data check. after that historic day yesterday that harkens back to

1933, a further lift to the equity markets. i am watching continued dollar weakness. many analysts are looking at dollar weakness, the ebb off that stronger dollar move that we saw the last couple of days. also looking at oil, again with a bounce, a risk-on feel, but a suspect feel about global demand. francine? francine: i am also looking at oil. i have chosen wti this time toward $25 a barrel. treasuries stable, the dollar, which ive looked at -- have looked at over the last two or three days. talking about the euro, it held up to gains as leaders seem to be moving toward their own package. i'm delighted to be joined by the euro group leader shortly. stocks in europe, over 4.5%

higher. if you look at bonds, they are stabilizing somewhat. coming up on "bloomberg surveillance," we will be speaking with mario centeno, the euro group president. also a roundup of all things coronavirus and stimulus related. if you are a bloomberg user, log on to tv . if you are working from home, you can follow us there. if you have a guest you want us to ask a question two, you can use tv and say ask the guest a question under that on the tv screen. mario centeno of the euro group coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." from london and new york, it is francine anton. and tom.s francine what conditions will be attached to the money? we are delighted to be joined by the euro group president. he is always on those very important g7 calls. mr. centeno, thank you for joining sp on the esm credit lines, what exactly are the obstacles at the moment to getting a consensus, which is so badly needed to make sure we get on with it? mario: thank you for having me,

and good morning. this is an important breakthrough that we made yesterday. add a be clear that to new european safety net, to protect our economy and cities from the economic crisis. having the esm firepower on board is of utmost importance. we are indeed buying some sort of insurance to be ready to use in case we need. weekthis mean quite a busy for us? we were not really able to close all the details around the proposal, but there is a broad, very broad support to use esm and to be ready to use it whenever we need. of course, one of the issues is unconditionality.

let me be very clear, everyone agrees that in the short term conditionality is clearly related with the crisis, both in its health and economic dimensions. term, theg to longer dimension of conditionality that we need to make sure it is one in aputs all our economies stable path. mr. centeno, how would the credit lines be funded? still fine-tuning the details. esm money, and we are going to use the longest maturity is possible, and need it in the face of also what we

analyze, we evaluate the situation after the pandemic crisis is over. a lot of difficulties in our economies are popping up, and we need to allow for that. francine: is it too early to find consensus on corona bonds or eurobonds issuance? preparing quite impressive number of measures these days. at the european levels. ourselves curtailing of any possibility whatsoever, so nothing is being taken out of our way. time, ande step at a the sentiment i have is that everyone understands the risks the speed enough

in the response, the intensity, and the instruments needed. we have learned from the previous crisis, each was quite different, very, very different. intensity,e also in and now everyone understands tot it is impossible for us andthis morph into a long protracted recovery. instruments will be made available. i have that sentiment from the euro group. centeno, good morning from new york. i want to speak to you as the minister of finance in portugal and dovetail it in with your work at harvard university with harm -- with the great economist warrants cass. -- lawrence cast -- lawrence

katz. is it an opportunity for the smaller or more fragile economies of europe to reassert their part with the dominant economies like germany and the netherlands? well, we work in a very integrated economy. the single market develops to a level of integration that has no parallel in european history. it is important that to meaning of solidarity integrate society as ace pursuit -- has a specific meeting that today is being clearly put forward in the political divisions we are taking. -- in the political decisions we are taking. youral as the president of

group and also being finance minister of a small -- of euro group, and also being finance minister of a small economy in the last couple of years is to make sure that these level -- that this level of integration, that the level of interconnectedness in our sonomies do not fall apart, that we can really benefit from being in the european union. i believe we are all winners of this huge experience of building unionetary and economic in europe these days. and we have to continue that in the future. dr. centeno, thank you so much for joining us today. we greatly appreciate it come on the esm, and the crisis that we see in europe. we have got much more to come today on "bloomberg surveillance." television and radio. hugely, francine, a dynamic

moment in the united states. we look at the u.s., it is really quite amazing, tom. we are dealing with the same curves in terms of the steepening of the curves and how it is affected. but every country is doing it a little bit differently. today we had a joint letter from the fca, the bank of england, the lending on the back of covid-19. one of the interviews we are most looking forward to is the u.k. business secretary, alex sharma. policiesalk about the put in place. coming up shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: good morning, everyone, from london and new york, it is francine and tom.

the u.k. response to the coronavirus pandemic after the first full day of lockdown, parliament likely to be shut this evening. moreovernment has pledged fiscal stimulus then during the global financial crisis, so what measures are being taken to lessen the effect and alleviate the concerns of the businesses in the u.k.? i am delighted to be joined by alok sharma who joins us on the phone. thank you for joining us. the chancellor announced three packages and how to deal with the coronavirus. what sectors are you particularly concerned about? sec. sharma: i think it may be useful to unpack the measures you have said yourself. they are unprecedented in the scale of the response has been unprecedented as well. announced 30r

billion pounds of direct support for the economy followed up with a 350 billion pound package producing guarantees, loans, business rate holidays, as well as funding for small businesses. friday, we had the job retention scheme ensuring the government will pay 80% of a workers' wages , up to 2500 pounds a month. bills dued tax between now and june are deferred until the end of the tax year. offusiness will be forced their premises if they miss a payment in the next three months. that can be deferred. what i would say to you is the conversations i have been having everyday with business leaders across the u.k. shows people are worried about their business, their livelihood.

but we also sends is the response from businesses being that the government has stepped up and we are doing everything we can to support businesses and safeguard livelihoods. francine: on the trains, we have seen something being done, airlines we know are at the top of the treasury. what other specific sectors are you worried about? sec. sharma: the immediate retailis those within and hospitality and leisure. on the 17th of march as a part of the package the chancellor announced that all businesses within retail, leisure, and hospitality get a 12 month holiday from paying their rates bill, which is a big component of any fixed cost business. francine: are any of the packages being divided for

specific sectors? industry,k in this for example, what will you do for the self-employed? i don't know what packages you will give to individual segments of business. sec. sharma: as you have alluded to in your commentary, the where thean area chancellery is having detailed discussions. the self-employed as well, this has been raised by business organizations and in parliament as well, and it is absolutely something that we in government are looking at intently. understand the situation self-employed people face at the moment as a result of what is happening, and we are completely determined to find a way of supporting them. we need to be confident the way we provide that support is delivered in a manner that is

fair for the vast majority of the workforce. onk is continuing at pace that and i hope we will be able to come forward with further measures. in terms of self-employed, we have ensured that income tax payments due at the end of july normally, those due at the end july 2020 will be deferred and that will benefit over 6 million people. tom: you are one of the few politicians that actually understands the mathematics, with your work in physics a few years ago. with the exponential realities london,ogy, where is the united kingdom, and the nhs in 10 days? sec. sharma: one of the things we have been clear from the

front is that we are led by the toence so we listen closely our chief scientific advisor and the chief medical officer. the decisions we are making are based on scientific advice. that is why you have seen the announcement that the prime minister made monday evening where he said to people that you home and it is about protecting nhs and saving lives. tom: this is important, we are seeing this with the density overlaid the exponential functions in new york city as well. what can you -- and i don't mean cane disrespectful -- what you do about the underground trains packed in london? that buttresses up against the mathematics.

sec. sharma: if you were on the streets of london or a city in the u.k. now after the announcement monday evening, there has been a marked difference in the sense that far fewer cars on the road, you hardly see people on the streets, and i think that is the response from the british public to a serious issue. to prime minister asked them step up and they are doing that. isterms of tube travel, this an issue the prime minister has been raising in terms of reduced services with the mayor of london, and this is a massive form of transport for london. my colleague in the transport sector is speaking to the mayor of london and we are working to ensure there is appropriate timetables to ensure it is safe for those who are able to go to work. what we are saying to people is you should stay at home.

if you are able to work -- and lots of people are able to work from home -- you should work from home. it is only if your workplace is open and not categorized as one of those businesses that should not be open and there is no other way of conducting your work that you should be looking to go to work. this is about telling our population to stay at home to protect the nhs and save lives and livelihoods. francine: hugely important message. the chancellor said yesterday the government will not be able to save every business. rents,re iconic british -- brands, are there some that you will not let go under? sec. sharma: i think what is important is that we step forward and provide a package of support that is available in certain sectors where they are

particularly affected with this, and step forward and provide support across the whole of the economy. -- i spoke to businesses and business representatives in the hour or two after the chancellor made that statement on friday, and i had positive reaction, and there are many people telling me the jobs that were on the brink were being saved as a result of the job retention scheme the government was announcing as well as the other measures. thatmpletely understand this is an immediate issue for businesses, for individuals, and that is why we are working at pace. announced the business interruption load to 45 for businesses up million pounds. you can get a 12 month interest free loan for up to 5 million

pounds. we understand the pace this needs to move that and we are responding. francine: this iconic british brand, what do you tell them? do you view them differently from something less iconic than a john lewis? sec. sharma: this is about saving johns across the economy and that is what our packages are designed to do. i hope that every business will look carefully at the full package of measures that are being announced and see whether they can take advantage of it. every day, i have a range of conference calls with business representative organizations, individual businesses large and small, because we are determined to get the message out that we will do whatever it takes to support business. i hope the measures we put forward demonstrates that clearly. business secretary,

thank you so much, very valuable conversation with business secretary alok sharma. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news. viviana: the trump administration and the u.s. senate reaching a historic rescue package to help the u.s. economy battered by the coronavirus. it teased up almost $2 trillion in spending and tax breaks. small businesses will get aid to keep workers on the payroll. the trump administration debating a temporary deferral of tariffs on imported goods. a three month delay is being discussed but domestic trade associations are pushing back, saying it could hurt u.s. businesses. in italy, the second deadliest day of the coronavirus outbreak, 743 deaths reported but active

cases rising the least in a week . that is an indication the restriction of movement is slowing the spread of the coronavirus. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. francine: thank you so much. we will have plenty more on europe and the u.s., conversations with virologists and experts on the rate of infection and how to slow down and save lives. also, an exclusive conversation out of berlin with the german finance minister olaf scholz. possible esmabout and lifelines of businesses and what shape a recession in europe would take place. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ good morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance," from a very different new york and different london. we thank all of you for being with us. , a real indication against em currency, and more follow-on from that today. for those of you just joining us , we have an agreement in washington with the senate. to bring youed jeremy stretch linking the economics in this moment into the litmus paper of the global system, the foreign exchange market. which currency pair is the most

that matterss of to you? jeremy: we have seen some rebounding in the emerging markets but in the context of raised currencies, those have been incredibly big in the last couple of weeks and we can see some stability coming through into market sentiment and a degree of rebound in the dollar commodity currencies. we have seen the aussie and kiwi making gains and that puts some additional votes on the canadian side. thoseory is relevant to currencies that are cyclically correlated and continue to be monitored closely. tom: without getting into the weeds, so much of this is about

the flow of money from japan out or in. what do you see in terms of where people want to put big money? is it still everybody to the big dollar? jeremy: we have seen a funding squeeze or funding strain which led to an appreciation of the u.s. dollar. the dollar had been making good gains. callse seen margin demanding additional pressure on the dollar. if we can see an easing of strains, dollar-yen is a different scenario which is why the yen is under pressure, but if we can see an easing in dollar funding strains and some degree of stability, and no large falls in the equity market

we can see some degree of correction in the valuation of the dollar. the dollar index will be heading back to the threshold. the inherent uncertainties in the u.s., and we continue to see a degree of differential discussion between the president and the medical community in terms of the outlook and outcome of the u.s. response, then we probably will see the u.s. dollar easing. what is thestretch, significance of the huge move in gold we saw yesterday, people talking about $1700 an ounce? jeffrey curry and the team at goldman reaffirms their gold call. jeremy: we have seen gold coming under pressure because when there is margin calls, it was

opportune for many to liquidate holdings in terms of gold, but now we are in a world where effectively opened qe from the sheetse balance adjustments from any number of global central banks, and those embarking on qe continues to grow, that would imply that commodities such as gold will remain well supported and the to that degree are liquidity inspired and will encourage the gold price to drive even higher. francine: good morning from london. we are expecting a package from euro leaders. we were talking about possible corona bonds. what do you see euro doing from here? jeremy: the eurozone has the relative safety net. we have seen year up and or the

euro being -- europe and/or the euro being hit hard. it has become the epicenter of the crisis, but from a euro perspective, if we can see movement in terms of a coordinated fiscal response across the eurozone, and that has been a concern for the markets over the last weeks, this lack of coordination, but if europe can show a coherent response in terms of utilizing esm, that shows we found a flaw in the recent lows and we probably can and will see a gradual grind higher. be sufferingwill from collateral damage from the virus so it will not be negated. we will not see the euro roaring, just grinding over time. so much, thank you jeremy stretch stays with us. another conversation you don't want to miss, we will speak to

the university of chicago finance minister raghuram rajan at 6:30 a.m. in new york, 10:30 a.m. london. we will talk about the virus, what kind of recession we will lockdown, l, and the in his india. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ good morning, good afternoon, and good evening. tom and francine from london and new york. let's get back to jeremy stretch. we had an unprecedented move by india, 1.3 billion people in lockdown overnight. we are hearing from emerging markets that have health systems that are not as advanced as many places in the west. what currency moves will you see in emerging markets if the pandemic takes hold in those regions? those: you have to hope areas with less-developed health systems that are least affected by the crisis, because the

ramifications of the pandemic coming through those with little ability to offset that by health care systems could be traumatic to say the least. clearly, if we see concerns inut the scale of the virus some of those em nations, inevitably you would see those currencies coming under pressure. i think it is the case it is to instituteent some degree of lockdown process to preclude those worst-case scenarios playing out. the human costs and the economic costs for those nations. tom: can foreign-exchange be committed with everybody working from home? can you do that? jeremy: good question. that is something the market is wrestling with this week as we speak at the moment.

we are increasingly dislocated where individual trading teams are normally in one location and dealing with sales and/or clients over a disparate basis, but we are very much dislocated, so the trading systems are being tested, but thus far are holding up relatively well. it will be the case that some of those on the client side are finding they have to look at their policies in terms of trading outside of the normal confines of the market. that is possibly where we are seeing some degree of initial dislocation as london deals with this lockdown over the course of the last 24 to 48 hours. tom: jeremy, thank you so much for being with us, really most interesting with two days in a row of dollar weakness.

much more to speak of, including the legislation. the $1200 check everybody is getting, maybe it is not everybody getting a $1200 check. we will see. the data showing all sorts of movement in advance of that historic day yesterday, the biggest move since 1933 by some measures. everyone adjusting to many stimulus is, including in the united kingdom worldwide. we are thrilled to bring you "surveillance," christopher verrone on catching the knife in the dark. ♪

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time level of investment." it is somewhere in the vicinity of 1100 obscene pages. washington has a deal. the $1200 check is in the mail unless you are a single nurse in brooklyn making $99,000 a year. you get zero. the markets adjust, financial crisis over. tomorrow's millions of jobless claims may tell a different story. there is no room at the hospital . new york city builds two beds in hells kitchen. this is bloomberg "surveillance." we are under a "surveillance" lockdown. to take thef ways story this morning, we will get to kevin cirilli on fiscal stim