the ecb scraps limits on bond buying, giving it a huge arsenal despite coronavirus. trillions. passes a $2 rescue package, with the house set to vote on friday. the latest jobs data will be ugly as economists keep downgrading gdp forecasts. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: this thursday, march 26. i'm alix steel from new york. the rumor, sell the fact situation? in the bond market, an enormous amount of buying coming in in europe as the ecb truly does whatever it takes, wherever it takes. two year yield, just a huge move lower as you have money flying in all across the curve. oil continues to roll over. -- torket, strategists

market. in the we want to begin in washington, where the u.s. passed a record $2.2 trillion economic rescue package. the house will vote potentially on friday. going this is kevin cirilli. walk us through some of the highlights here. kevin: shortly before midnight, the senate, in a resounding 96-0 trillionsed the $2 economic stimulus bill. that puts pressure on the house of representatives to get this done quickly. there's been some comments from far-left progressives and far right republicans that they may have some issues with this version of the bill. i do not it is about that being enough to significantly stop this from being passed, based

upon my reporting. i can tell you that the likely vote will come friday, and president trump has said he is going to sign this virtually immediately once it lands on his desk. alix: thanks so much. as i mentioned earlier, europe really stepping up its effort to deal with the fallout from the coronavirus. the latest is the ecb started buying bonds, but released issuer limits, which means they can buy anything, anytime, anywhere. michael mckee joins us now. this feels like i whatever it takes for real this time. michael: that's the way it is being described by analysts. european countries want stimulus programs, but interest rates are a problem, so the ecb is stepping into ensure that they remain affordable. now they can buy as much as they their 750 billion euro

pandemicm, the emergency purchase program, or pepp. they probably don't want to use mario draghi's bazooka because that comes with conditions that countries don't want to accept. the ecb started emergency qe today, and that is sparking a rally in european bonds. the federal reserve, i proved that i can be more boring than even alix steel by sitting and reading the bill last night. here's what the fed is going to be doing. they're going to get $450 billion through the treasury for support and bond buying. they can leverage that in-one -- that 10-1. they can issue small business loans under the main street program. this is not the same as the sba program that is also in the bill. the companies come for their part, have five-year loans at

market rates. they can't cut payrolls as of march 24 by more than 10%. the question is who's still got people on the payroll. these loans through the fed must be repaid. finally, let's tease today's main circuits event. eight: 30 this morning, jobless claims. the previous record, 695,000 back in 1982. we've got a consensus forecast for 1,640,000. a lot of people think that is going to be low. citigroup says we could get 4 million today. alix: thank you so much, bloomberg's michael mckee. you will be sticking with me throughout the next couple of hours. i want to pivot to ecb, and apparently central banks are in talks for dividends until maybe the second half. there were talks about scrapping the dividend altogether to really help loans of liquidity. end with the markets. buy thened day buy

rumor -- i mentioned by the rumor, sell the fact kind of day. dani burger is here to take us through the details. the red,cks in snapping two days of gains. bonds are led today by european bonds. have the ecb scrapping its limits on its bond buying program and enacting emergency measures, one of the biggest regions to see bond yields fall, as greece is eligible again to be bought by the ecb. the ecb says it is not going to be playing catch-up with those yields, falling as much as 30 basis points. elsewhere, negativity and stocks are not as extreme as we have seen, but still, you have futures down less than 1%. european stocks down by 1.5%. ubs says in order for the positive momentum to continue to be carried on throughout the markets, there needs to be signs that the government effort to contain the virus are working.

in the meantime, the markets turn their attention away from the u.s. and instead focus on the coronavirus curve, focus on the damage to the real economy. we got that peak in the first high-frequency data with the jobless claims, set to add to the grim pmi we got earlier in the week. adding to that negative sentiment, floating around in markets as well, is just the breadth of fallen angels we started to get. downgrade after downgrade from on companies that have seen cuts to junk. ford,, honda, nissan, and out of to those. that it is clear that corporates .re under pressure technical analysis needs to be

thrown out the window because of the nature of this downturn. we can't really use those signals. instead, a lot of market watchers say we need to get a peek in virus cases before we can declare the market bottom is soon to come. alix: thank you so much. really appreciate that. just to pivot off of that as well come up in key china of deutsche bank -- as well, binky hisha saying he is moving price target. d has become the largest so-called fallen angel. the virus has really rocked to the car industry. ford has shut its factories all around the world. at the same time, moody's downgrading toyota, honda, and nissan. this was the fear, the fallen angels fear. how bad will actually get?

we will break that down over the next two hours. coming up, much more on your morning trade, news, and analysis on the markets in today's first take. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time for bloomberg first take. joining me from our in-house team of wall street veterans and insiders, mike mckee, amy and mckee, damian sassower, and with us on the phone is stuart kaiser, ubs securities head of equity derivatives research. i want to update you on some of the headlines you are getting,

setting the stage for the fact that this is really not a typical downturn, but that the fed will aim to support the economy, and the treasury down stop is the only limit on fed spending. getting the message out there that they are in the market in here to support the economy. what did you make of the fact that he was going on "the today show?" is trying torly he speak to medical america -- to speak to middle america. they may find a little confusing, a little wonky. he wants to send the message that the fed is on the job. part of the overall goal of telling people to government is on the job and things aren't going to be as terrible as they could be, he is pointing out that this is an unusual situation caused by the virus. get the virus under control, competence and business will return. the fed is in place to support the economy while this is

happening and help create a rebound when it is over. although we may well be, echoing what we've heard from economists on wall street. when you are looking at the rally over the last two days, what did we learn so far? obviously waslly a little bit overdue. there was complete selling pressure. i am still looking at the positives of the market. the funding market is still improving. in euro and pound, the base is now positive. that normally doesn't happen, so definitely there's a lot more dollars in the system internationally. the one area really catching my eye is the mortgage-backed market in the u.s., a $16 trillion market. we are starting to see mortgage reads get margin calls, starting to close their doors. these aren't just small reads. there's probably more to come.

these are highly leveraged vehicles. it is certainly a source of concern for me. alix: stuart come away in on that -- stuart, weigh in on that. stuart: good morning. is right.mian it sort of bounced around a bit, if that makes sense. earlier in the week, it seemed like credit and rates markets were more of the issue. we saw that pricing in the vol market. yesterday, treasury vols came in, treasury spreads fell, and the vix priced higher. i think you are seeing a spasm in the market as you play whack-a-mole trying to get this stuff under control. we will see how it ultimately plays out. luckily, equity futures markets are still working, and that has been a channel for a lot of

people to hedge all of these risks. alix: and i went to get both of your takes on this because we are also going to have quarter rebalancing at the end of march, and correlations are quite high across assets. how does that wind up playing into the market action we are seeing, regardless of the fundamentals? what do you think? damian: i think we are starting to see evidence of this today. the norwegian sovereign wealth fund announced they are going to be buying. if you just look at the $109 trillion market for investable debt and equities, it has come $11 probably now down about trillion, but it is largely due to the deterioration in market value for foreign, non-dollar-denominated equities. they've gone from $19 trillion to under $7 trillion in short order, and that is a real area if you are looking for pockets

of value and you think that dollar strength is going to wane a little bit. that is one area you might want to check out. alix: fair point. mike, can you weigh in on some powell headlines? it looks like he says we are not going to run out of ammunition. michael: he was asked if the fed had run out of ammunition, and if he was sorry that the fed hadn't raise rates farther to have more room to cut. he said no because the economy would have grown more slowly already. he says the fed has plenty of saying thatearlier the fed leveraged the treasury gety 10 to one so they can for trillion dollars or more to put into the economy. when asked if that means inflation is coming, he says he doesn't expect that. one other note, the fed chair was asked if the cure is worse than the disease, as the president has suggested. he said it is going to be up to the virus to dictate when the country should get back to work.

he said i'm listening to dr. fauci on that. alix: fair point. that is something we have been discussing the last couple of days too. in on, can you weigh quarter rebalancing? thean was talking about dollar, that you may see some pause and that longer-term. stuart: when that might start and how the margin might be putting a number on it is a little difficult. are $100 billion to $200 billion of equities out there to buy. we are already seeing that a little bit. pensions know they need to rebalance, and equities need to rebalance. i'm sort of on the fence a little bit about how large that number is actually going to be, and how much discretion there

will be given the uncertainty in the market, but it certainly is a long market. i think the street to some extent was trying to front run that a little bit. is a lot of short covering that we have seen -- is it a lot of short covering we have seen in the past few days? stuart: i think it has been sporadic. i think there are some investors who would rather be flat than have any directional view given view of money out there. interestt seen as much in out rate long positioning right now because the market is way too volatile. ten-day realized on the s&p is 120 5%. i think it is hard for a macro investor to take a directional view, so the sense is people have gotten themselves back to neutral, and they are waiting

one way or another to have the confidence to put money on. certainly there has been short covering in short pockets of time. michael: a couple more headlines out of the fed chair, suggesting that stepping back from economic activity, shutting the economy down is for the public good. he says he is not worried about any criticism from the president because he is totally focused, and the rest of his colleagues are focused, on doing what they need to do for the american people. there's no playbook for this. they are flying blind like everybody else, but they feel like, with the programs they have put in place, the economy can snap back once this is over. it is going to be over when the virus dictates it is over. alix: usually if powell is speaking on nbc, that is all we would be talking about in these 10 minutes. i feel like you and i haven't really even discussed it. what does that tell us about what traders actually need right now for clarity?

damian: don't get me started with the fed. i think he is absolutely right to be speaking to middle america, given that we are going to have a 1.7 million claims number today. it is just unprecedented. but taking a step back, for me, the administration is basically bringing in all of the old experts to manage some of the buying programs. they are really dipping back into 2008 here. i think a lot of that needs to be edified. are these really the right people to be managing us through this crisis? this crisis is different than 2008. i am still looking for simon potter from the new york federal reserve bank to help assist. i am sure mike mckee would agree with that. i would certainly like to see a steady hand at the new york fed guiding us through the markets here. alix: to end on that point, what did you make of the ecb removing the issuer limits for bond buying and how bonds are flying right now, yields dropping like

a stone, particularly in greece and italy? what does that mean later, with the moral hazard for unlimited debt and how we live our life now? damian: there's a lot of -- there's not a lot of european corporate debt out there. it is only a matter of time before they have to go into high-yield. the verdict is still out as to where the euro and the ecb sits with all of this. i do think they've made a lot of progress. the euro is rallying a little bit here. you are certainly seeing central eastern european countries outperforming. you are seeing a snapback in rupee.donesian the one area that has been quiet in this is china. where is the pboc stimulus? when is it coming? they need it, so to me it is all about china right now. alix: so we are going

full-circle on that one. exelon, guys. really appreciate it. stuart kaiser of ubs investment bank, you are sticking with me. thank you very much. any charts we use throughout the show, go to gtv on your terminal. you can browse the features and check it out, gtv . the fed chair jay powell's interview on nbc, the big headline, we are not going to run out of ammunition. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." jp morgan the derivatives traders making a hall in those inlent -- making a haul those violent price swings.

it is a snapshot of the way the coronavirus is shifting fortunes on wall street. at goldman sachs, even a price war halt can't save oil from its huge glut. an unprecedented collapse in oil demand. goldman seeing any agreement to freeze out or cut output will be too little, too late. bill ackman's fight against the market paying off. ackman bought $27 million worth of credit protections on several bond indexes as the likelihood of corporate default rose. investors, square capital management's ackman says the hedge fund generated $2.6 billion in proceeds. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. just to update you, federal reserve chairman jay powell just sat down for a live interview on nbc's "today show." he really tried to pass onto the american public that we will see

a vigorous economic rebound once the coronavirus outbreak has passed area he described all of the action the central bank is taking, and's and mortgages and car loans are among the areas where the fed can step in. he also said the fed is not going to run out of ammunition in this fight. he really wanted to drive that point home as well. pretty unprecedented for the fed chair to go out and talk to the american people so directly. coming up, a then versus now situation when it comes to electronic trading. we will speak to rick mcveigh, marketaxess chairman and ceo, about the difference from 2008 and what that means about trading volumes, as well as liquidity. in the markets, you are still seeing s&p futures off just a touch. it feels like the biggest winners of your the last couple of days are the big winners this morning, despite that stimulus plan out of the senate. you are still seeing very strong buying in the u.s. on the backend of the 30 year, yields

down by about eight basis points, but that has nothing on what we are seeing in europe. we are seeing a huge amount of money coming to the bond market. yields over in greece in the 10 year are down 45 basis points. the ecb has removed that issue were limit, so it is pretty much all buying, all the time. spread narrowing on the widening had seen. we will be back in a second with rick mcveigh, marketaxess chairman and ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪ these days you need faster internet that does all you

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faster speed, coverage, and free advanced security at an unbeatable value with xfinity xfi. can your internet do that? ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm alix steel. s&p futures down by around 22 points. not a lot of action after we saw

a monster today rally within the market. european stocks holding up pretty well as you have unlimited bond buying from the ecb. i want to take a quick look at the bank sector, not getting as much of a pop as you thought. in other asset classes, that is where you see the real buying. that is in the bond market over in europe. the italian two-year really one of the out performers in the bond market. you are also looking at euro-dollar. the dollar is around the lows of the session, adding some support. crude goes from bad to worse. no one anymore talking about opec cutting production because it is not going to help because demand is so terrible. redbacks getting pa within all of these companies, but mentally -- but many analysts skeptical it is going to last. if you are staying at home like me, that means you will go to

electronic trading platforms rather than your standbys in the office. joining me now is rick mcvey, marketaxess chairman and ceo. it is basically an electronic trading platform for global and fixed income. i want to get a read on the kind of activity you have seen the last two weeks. rick: certainly. good morning, and thanks for having me. it has been a trying time for all market participants in fixed income given the speed of the event we have been going through , but electronic trading is providing an important role in keeping the market connected and keeping it functioning. trading levels, interestingly enough, through all of this are running at all-time highs for corporate bonds. we are looking at numbers monster date in march and corporate bond numbers, as well as high-yield. alix: have you had any

difficulties keeping everything working? down onple, jp morgan some of its trading platforms, robin hood as well. rick: our technology team has done a phenomenal job staying ahead of the volume increase on the trading system. we have been there for our clients every step of the way. the trading platform is performing exceptionally well around the world. importantly, we have been able to help both our investor and dealer clients get set up to trade from remote locations and from home offices. we've helped over 10,000 users in the last three weeks get set up and chemically to market access as they've moved away from their main trading floors in new york and london. alix: do you think that is sticky? i feel like all of this cannot wait to get back into the office, yet there is no doubt that what we have seen in the shutdown will transform the way some people operate. is that some of

this will create a permanent behavioral change with traders. i think many people are seeing the benefits of electronic trading, and specifically marketaxess open trading through this event. i think they will realize that there is a better liquidity model, especially when volatility rises. people are getting more comfortable with the idea that they can work mostly and trade remotely. so i think most of these changes are here to stay. alix: but if you noticed in terms of liquidity? rick: liquidity has been challenging, but the good news is that the markets are functioning and trading actively. when you look at bait offer spreads, it is no surprise that given the steep increase in volatility, bid offer spreads have also increased given the level of risk in the market. when we look at both high-grade corporate bonds and high-yield, spreads are about four times

wider than you would expect, but trading volumes, whether you are looking at the overall market or the electronic market, are running at all-time highs. have you noticed any change in liquidity since the fed came out with all of their guns a blazing? rick: there has certainly been improvement in market conditions and sentiment over the last two days. i'd say the coordinated efforts you are seeing from central banks are having an impact as they inject liquidity anyway they can back into fixed income markets. certainly, the stimulus package will help as well. we are pleased to see the government efforts to get businesses in markets back on their feet, and the last two days have been much better in the markets after a very steep widening of credit spreads. we have seen some improvement over the last few days, and interestingly, the high-grade new issue market is wide open. we have seen $125 billion in new

issuance in the high-grade market just in the last six days, which is normally a very good month. there are very positive signs taking place this week. alix: do you have any read in terms of how this is -- oh, that is my kid on tv. [laughter] alix: do you have any sense in terms of what we see now versus back in 2008 as to the kinds of volume, the kind of trading? can you give us a sense of that? rick: i would .22 big differences. one, the speed of this reddit event is unprecedented. ofhad as much widening -- this credit event is unprecedented. we had as much widening in the past two weeks as into thousand eight. i believe that because of the advancements in fixed income and corporate bonds, trading volumes have gone up in this event, whereas they went down into thousand eight. i would point to the advancements in electronic trading, as well as the convergence of the etf market to the bond market, for bringing

disparate pools of liquidity into a central trading marketplace, which is helping the markets function through this very difficult time. alix: can you talk a little bit about opportunities you see as ceo, and terms of growing your business, m&a or consolidation at this point? there's a lot of turmoil, but a lot of high demand for your product as well. rick: we are going to continue to invest in mobile trading solutions for our clients. our biggest investment area has been our all tall marketplace, or open trading. that is making a big difference this time around because the banks has her own challenges what is going on in their loan books. this time around, the market has many different pockets of liquidity to lean on, as opposed to only relying on bank liquidity. the investments we are making in open trading are really connecting market participants around the world, both investors

and dealers, for trading in a very different way. i think that has been one of the primary reasons that the trading activity in the functioning of the market this time around is very different than it was back in 2008, so we will keep that investment up. alix: rick, really appreciate it. it was right to get your perspective. thanks to rick mcvey of marketaxess. stuart kaiser of ubs is still with us as well. how have you seen liquidity evolve? have we moved past that conversation yet? stuart: it's a good question. it does feel like the markets are a bit more stable and two-way. equity, i think you are seeing similar issues or challenges to the credit side, just maybe on a slightly smaller scale. bit offers may wind down a in the options market.

but otherwise, things functioning quite well on our side, which you would argue is probably a necessary condition. if credit and mortgage markets are a little frictiony, you certainly need to be able to take down risk in other ways. theink bigger picture, question will be with the amount of money the fed is putting into the market, what does that ultimately due to liquidity and treasury markets? we need that influx now, but as of last night, over $500 billion in treasuries. the amount of money coming into the markets from policymakers is just immense right now. certainly that will help get things under control, but at some point, it will be a hindrance to markets given the absolute size of it. alix: i am so glad you brought that up. "the financial times" has been youg a great series, where have economists and world

leaders come in and write a piece. mario draghi said the loss of income by the private sector must eventually be absorbed on government balance sheets. much higher debt levels will become a permanent feature of our economy, a company by private debt cancellation, which means people aren't going to be able to pay back these loans. what do you think about that? stuart: mario draghi probably things he isthe speaking to his a lot of the changes we had post-financial crisis, where banks in particular can't take a lot of on balance sheets. the fed has been forced to be that buyer of last resort. so certainly, a lot of risk is being transferred to policymaker balance sheets in a way that, during the financial crisis, it wasn't. a lot of that went on two balance sheets. we saw the impact that had on bank balance sheets and share prices, thing of that nature. i think the nature of the crisis

is different this time. i think the credit markets are an interesting snapshot of that. we will see how it plays out. in terms of the long-term path for debt levels, we don't have a view on that. we are still trying to figure out all of the fiscal stimulus in new announcements and things going on. to that point, one thing i would highlight his we are already seeing fiscal stimulus at about 2.6% of global gdp. that number was 1.7% total during the financial crisis. in the last two to three weeks, we have already announced fiscal packages more than 100 basis points greater than what we saw during the financial crisis. that is all money onto public balance sheets, and i think that is probably to some extent what he is speaking towards. alix: two rounded out here because you are the derivatives guy, where can you still effectively hedge and protect yourself right now that isn't too expensive? stuart: it is a relative value

discussion in a world of volatility. we have been focusing on nasdaq as a way to do that, also that look euro stoxx more attractive than other parts of the market. the other area is the vix term structure, so owning volatility three to six months out. what we saw yesterday was the vix and the term structure rose about three points, but during the previous 45 trading days, those had been down 20 to 30 points. a little bit of what you might have seen yesterday was the market was pricing the policy input through the rates , butt and rates volatility what you did see is people coming back to the equity market, owning the vix, owning the vix term structure. nasdaq, focus on a little bit on europe, and the

middle part of the vix term structure. small-cap would be an area we would like -- small-cap will be an area we would like, but frankly, that is way too now.sive right alix: always good to catch up with you. really appreciate it, stuart kaiser of ubs. we want to give you an now. update on headlines outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with first word news. viviana: we begin with the largest economic rescue in u.s. history. the senate approving a $2 usingon package aimed at the damage caused by the coronavirus outbreak. giant loan programs were set up to help businesses. the house is expected to boat on the bill tomorrow -- to vote on the bill tomorrow. now to a tragedy and a very difficult choice, who to let die first. spanish doctors are being forced to choose because of coronavirus. intensive care wards are overflowing.

rules are leading younger live because they have a better chance of surviving. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: thanks so much, viviana. coming up, ubs ceo sergio ermotti finding new opportunities during today's volatile markets. plus, if you have a terminal, check out tv . you can click on charts and graphics, interact with us directly. scroll through and check it out. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." coming up in the next hour my david kostin -- the next hour my david kostin, goldman sachs chief equity strategists. ♪ viviana: you are watching "bloomberg daybreak." the giant rescue plan could provide boeing and its suppliers with at least $60 billion. the airplane industry would be eligible to tap a slice of the $450 billion package. boeing could also claim part of

fund for companies considered critical to national security. micron technology's predicting stronger than expected revenue. there's been a surge in orders for data center operators. with addedaling people working from home. warning -- wea end with a warning across the financial industry that onus is could drop 40% or more. alan johnson of johnson associates said a perfect storm is taking shape. he says a global recession and broader industry shakeup will crush bonuses. alix: thanks so much. that is a tough stat to take in if you work on wall street. it is time now for wall street beat. first up, jp morgan equity derivatives revenue swelled to $1.5 billion. ermotti' mati -- then,

s interview. we are still seeing different areas and pockets within these big banks doing pretty well on some serious revenue. sonali: that is for sure. we don't know how the trading desks are going to do come about $1.5 billion in equity derivatives is pretty good. it is about double what they typically make in that business, and about all of what a typical equity business with make in one quarter. jp morgan is a leader in this business. looking atdefinitely the numbers and saying, wow, who else is doing well? citigroup has been making money on equity derivatives as well. davis hasue michelle also pointed out that this team was still going into the office littleek, sitting a closer together perhaps.

they are still definitely working hard, and to your point, the bonuses are going down across wall street, but it doesn't mean they will be unanimously going down for everybody. alix: great point. we also caught up with sergio ermotti, the ceo of ubs, to talk about some opportunities he sees in credit. here's what he had to say. >> there's a large pool of cash that has helped investors to manage the in an effective way. we do see people taking advantage of new opportunities. for example, it is time in our point of view to move to credit. if you look historically from a risk-reward point of view, there's not many times in history where credit has been priced so attractively, and therefore, we see people taking a bed of that -- taking advantage of that. alix: what did you make of the interview? ermotti joins a few

other we are seeing. the strains on the credit market have not completely let up, but there have been some let ups. it is a lot easier to find liquidity and find bids for some of these assets. i think now that the stimulus package has been coming into fuller form, people are knowing where they can place bets safely, where there is safety and what will survive versus what will be left struggling at the end of the day. scott minard of guggenheim says he is already selectively looking for opportunities in these markets as well. when you look at ubs and sergio ermotti, they have a huge client base of high net worth individuals where they may be a little bit underweight some of these credit securities, and they can afford to take some on in their portfolios. alix: talking about the opportunities, there's also the downdraft. investec said they may see the value of their assets down 40%, yet these are guys with a lot of dry powder. sonali: it reminds me back in

2008, a lot of companies were trying to go public around that time, and right after that period, massive losses on these markdowns. it doesn't look horrible yet. the first thing we have seen is apollo saying they might see 15% to 20% markdowns in the first quarter. investec is making this prediction for into the second quarter, so they believe this pain is going to keep bleeding through, as a lot of people do. investeclet's see how long these markdowns last into the year and how willing they are to use that dry powder and pounce on cheap opportunities when some of their portfolio is really struggling in other places. alix: thanks a lot. really appreciate it, bloomberg's sonali basak. it is really a tale of two hotels. k, the posh four

seasons hotel will provide free nurses to doctors and and will not except new bookings. bijou isher side, the offering customizable care with add-ons such as in room coronavirus testing. doctor visits and when he 47 nurse care -- and 24/7 nurse care. that nurse care will cost you $4800. talk about the severe have and have-nots of the world. coming up, we look at the historically large divergence in today's trader's take. if you are jumping into your car, tune into bloomberg radio heard across the u.s. on sirius xm channel 119 and on the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: time now for trader's take. joining me is damian sassower of bloomberg intelligence. you are looking at bonds and stocks of em. damian: that's exactly right. obviously, we've gotten smashed. the msci index is off 20% year to date. but what we are looking at here is what kind of yield you can expect from each of those asset classes because em yield has compressed quite significantly. it is only 113 basis points, the tightest we have seen ever. what that means is as central banks locally continue to cut rates, driving down yields, they are becoming less attractive relative to equities. we were mentioning earlier on the show the deterioration in market value for nondebtor equities has fallen off a cliff, from $19 trillion to under $7

trillion in just a few months. longer-term, how to something like that play out? damian: it means you are going to want to look and pick. those companies operating emerging markets that stand to benefit from the crisis, i think cyclicals are lagging. it has been tech and health care leading the way on the rebound, but eventually, cyclicals need to participate here. that would go for alibaba, tencent, semiconductor producers , all of those equities based in korea and china would benefit from this. alix: really appreciate it. good stuff. coming up, moments away from the boe rate decision. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ alix: welcome to "bloomberg this thursday,

march 26. we are just a few seconds away from the latest boe rate decision. overall, you have equities a little bit softer today. is it a buy the rumor, sell the news? you are seeing a broadly weaker dollar. people write and hero around the highs of the session as you have euro did -- cable rate and around the highs of the session as you have a big bid. vote -- theysly announced emergency lending facility for banks. 11.13oday, there was billion buying on banks. this is andrew bailey's first real boat, but yet, no real change. they already did all of the work they were necessarily going to do.

i just want to check on what is happening with the cable rate yet just give me a second to pull it up on my terminal. you are looking at around the highs of the session at 119. qe currently unchanged, so the pound able to hold onto those gains. michael mckee, bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent, is with me as well. we weren't expecting that much. anything you're going to be statement? in the michael:michael: we're just looking for an economic assessment at this point. they go through the minutes, and we will get those headlines. as you point out, just a week ago, the bank of england lowered rate to 0.1%. this is really an assessment rather than a policy change kind of meeting. the bank of england is saying in its minutes that it can expand asset purchases further if

needed, but apparently right now, they don't think they need to. it has been only a week. we shall see. they are saying they will monitor the situation closely. that doesn't really tell you a whole lot because that is their job. the liquidy facility you talk about this morning is a repo operation the bank of england is doing. we haven't seen need additional qe buying in the last couple of days, but we expect that will be coming fairly soon, and they hope that will keep a lid on the interest rates in england as we are seeing the fed try to do here, and now the ecb with its pep program in europe. alix: i am glad you brought that up. i was reading an article today basically saying if everyone is having stimulus and everyone is easing, no one is really easing and having stimulus. how do you look at that? michael: we are seeing rates go

down across the world. in the u.s., we are seeing rates much lower. they can't let rates rise given how much the government is going to have to borrow at this point. given the fact that a lot of sba and the fedsd .re going to make the periphery countries have seen rates rise based on poorer economic conditions, so the ecb with its bond buying program expansion how saying it can buy as many as it once from those countries push those spreads down and keep the rates low. the bank of england just trying to keep rates as low as possible in order to stimulate the economy and keep the economy going. the thing that you see is nobody is worried about inflation. the u.s. government is going to spend maybe as much as $6

trillion, and jay powell on "the today show" today said we don't have an inflation problem. if you asked somebody 10 years ago, they would have looked at you like you had two heads under those conditions. alix: totally, although i have seen jeff currie warning of an oil rate shock. also with me as barry knapp, ironsides partners managing partner, and simona mocuta, state street global senior economist. basically, at some point, you are going to see higher public debt levels that will become a permanent feature of our economies and be accompanied by private debt cancellation because there would be so much loss of income that these private sector companies just cannot pay it back. what do you make of this as related to, say, down the road years?w months, a few

barry: well, i think we reached a major inflection point. i tried to write about five macro themes i thought would persist as long as the decade. one of those was over the last 30 years, we had this massive labor supply shock. the entrance of china and the soviet bloc into the industrialized world increased the supply of industrialized labor from 750 million workers basically 2 billion by 2010. all of that labor supply and the demographic changes, that really diminished or increased the demand for capital. we reached an inflection point somewherebor supply 5, 7 years or so ago. you can see that in all of the demographic curves. d bige still haven't ha

demand for capital. i think that is over. ofhink over the next couple years, the demand for capital would go up because we didn't have as many buying as we once did, but this incredible rush to provide all this relief means there is going to be demand for capital. most capital goes to fund government debt and deficits as opposed to private sector investment, that could be a real drag on productivity going forward. fortunately, most of the productivity enhancing investment is capital lite. it is software, research and develop and. that would be the thing i would look for overtime, is if governments are monopolizing the capital that is out there, that could check clearly be a drag -- that could clearly be a drag on productivity over time. alix: totally. we all used to laugh at modern monetary theory come about how

do you look at that in the longer term implications? simona: you just said what i was going to say. for a long time, modern monetary theory was more of an intellectual debate for and investors. i was just at the national association of business economics conference in month or so ago, and there was a session on monomer monetary theory -- on modern monetary theory. i think we are experiencing andy a test of if it works how this works down the line, but i think it is clear we see from policy, from central banks to governments that the rules we played by so far are going out thedoor, and now this is a house is burning situation. we will do everything we can to stabilize and deal with the consequences later. alix: just reading some of the headlines from the boe, one in particular says that the boe does see risk of longer-term

damage to the economy. many firms see the crisis as worse than 2008. i know we are still digging through with the repercussions of the virus, but what are the long-term impacts to the global economy? simona: i think it is hard to tell right now, but structurally, we probably, both as individuals and companies, realize that there are alternative ways of doing things. in some cases, these could be positive changes. you have more flexibility in terms of how you operate. but it may also bring realization that not all expenditures that we are seeing as absolutely necessary are really absolutely necessary. right now we are operating on a much thrifty year -- much thriftier environment in terms of travel, etc. that is where i am looking at at least one of the long-term

dislocations, that maybe not all business travel needs to happen. barry, what do you think? how does that inform medium to long-term investment decisions? barry: i think in terms of the good and the bad on the other cited this, the bad is what we were just discussing come of the amount of bad capital that is going to have to flow through the public sector, but the good is, back to my five macro themes , one of the themes i am very convinced about is that technology innovation adoption is coming to the health care sector. my view was if it didn't come to the health care sector, we were going to have a giant takeover by government in this country, but that they were going to have to adopt technology, deliver those services much more efficiently. this whole coronavirus is going to turbocharge that.

just doing virtual doctor visits and the like, really using knology to test better, i think this could stop the 30 year decline in health care sector profit margin that has gone on since 1990, reversed that, and really make that sector, which has been one of the biggest drags on productivity in this as everyone knows, we spend more per capita than anywhere else in the world and we don't get better outcomes -- that could be a real big beneficiary out of this. i think we have also broken a 50 year monopoly on the price of oil. opec and russia is gone. oil is going to be determined by supply and demand over time. that is actually going to stabilize the return on capital and make it a much more investable sector on the others of this. those are the two i would .2. again, just generally, the technology innovation, some of

the things the guest was getting out about getting so much more productive. you could drive a lot of productivity gains by just people being able to operate from their homes at times. add to that,ld education is an either sector -- is another sector where we can harvest productivity gains, alternative measures of destruction can bring down cost on the long-term that i think would be a benefit on society. barry: totally agree on that. alix: hang tight with me. we've got to go to a quick will break that all down. barry knapp of ironsides partners and simona mocuta of state street global. downgrade ratings earnings in just about a month.

-- this isomberg ♪ bloomberg. ♪

alix: david kostin of goldman sachs is slashing his estimates for s&p growth for the third time in the last month, expecting earnings to decline by about 3% and the s&p to end the , witht around 3000 potential more hiccups on the way. joining me on the phone is david kostin, goldman sachs chief u.s. equity strategist. i have never seen someone have to downgrade their earnings forecast so quickly. what is your visibility right now? david: it is an excellent question. it has been challenging, the swiftness with which all of this has played out on a real-time

basis. you are correct. at the end of february, we made our first cut. we saw things were slowing. and then in early march, and then last week, we reduced our estimate significantly. we are looking for this year and 2020, about 110 dollars in earnings for the s&p 500, down 33%. that is a significant decline obviously. are assessing a rebound. the key driver is that we are still in the first quarter, and we haven't even begun the second quarter, which is likely to be the most significant contraction in the u.s. economy that we have really ever seen in a single quarter. as a result, that is really the driving force. we've got earnings down 15% year-over-year in the first quarter -- actually, down over

123%, literally a loss across u.s. publicly traded companies in the second quarter. a decline of around 21% in the third quarter, and then up in the fourth quarter. that is generally the passively the -- the path of the equity market i anticipate. before we specific ideas, does the stimulus that is going to get passed in congress change how you view or have to model earnings. we were anticipating, along with our economists, a meaningful amount of stimulus. this is certainly at the higher end of that range, almost 10% of u.s. gdp. that is tantamount to about 2% of the overall economy, so that is a big, important stabilizing mechanism that we incorporated

in our analysis. , there have been moves in different areas of the financial markets, commercial paper being a particular one. that has given us more confidence that ultimately, the economy will be growing in the second half of the year, and a renewedct get growth in profit and business. i think the issue is many companies literally have no revenue coming in in the second quarter, or substantially reduced revenue. this is why at the end of the day, there's a lot of small businesses at risk. there are many dislocations happening, which is taking profit level down for this year. it has come to the most significant discussion point with portfolio managers in is how does, which one assess a normalized or run rate of profit that companies can generate?

one of the ways we did this was to look at a margin of safety. if you are a fund manager or investor, we have a margin of safety when you own a stock. this is an old approach that ben graham, father of value investing, looked at. timate, let'sn es adjust it to a particularly low level that we think is as low as you are going to go. this year, we have a model of course, but let's look into 22 anyone. let's -- look into 2021. let's reduce that earnings estimate by 20%. first of all, analysts are typically 10% too high. that will take us down another 10%. then we compare it with where those stocks traded at the bottom of the market in march of 2009 and say if i am buying at a lower evaluation, some of them

are trading on this a dusted -- this adjusted valuations approach at 14 times earnings. that would be a margin of safety. that is the approach of choosing stocks that i think it is appropriate at this particular juncture. alix: what happens when all of the sudden buybacks are being taken out of the market? david: from a magnitude point of view, it has certainly been a key component of the equity market over the last 10 years, and terms of corporate repurchases. that equated to somewhere between 1% and 2% accretion. if you look at the level of earnings growth in terms of dollars and then looked at the earnings-per-share growth, the difference between that would be affected by the buybacks, and that would enhance earnings .rowth by 1% to 2%

as a result, the underlying growth will become clear, and it turns the magnitude of earnings-per-share up and the buyback is not that material in terms of the trajectory of profits into next year. that is how i think about that. david, really great to catch up with you. go ahead. david: i was going to say, dividends have become a key issue. how many companies are going to be able to maintain their dividend as opposed to either suspend the dividend, you see a number of companies choose to do that. they are making the distributions, and that is an area we would be focusing on at this time. alix: david, really appreciate

you jumping on the call with us. much more coming up. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." jp morgan equity derivatives traders are making a haul amid violent price swings. pruner -- it is a snapshot of the way the coronavirus crisis is shifting fortunes on wall street. goldman sachs is warning even a price war halt can't save oil from a huge glut. the lockdown of countries around the world causing unprecedented collapse in oil demand. any attempt to freeze or cut output will be too little, too

late. ford has become the largest so-called fallen angel. s&p cutting the auto maker to junk at a time when the coronavirus is rocking the car industry. 's --ow grading ford s&p downgrading ford's credit b+, and says it may cut further. alix: thanks so much, viviana. barry knapp of ironsides still with me. how do you look at the fallen angel story that is so prevalent right now? barry: you know, it has been a fascinating one. my broader perspective on fixed income markets and credit markets in particular was if youth think about where we were last week, for me, there were two really prevalent issues, and they weren't even in credit so much. they were in the fact that as

rates started to rise, it was really being led by real rates, which is the part of the treasury market that the fed generally tries to push lower. inflation breakevens were just collapsing. part of that is expectations of deflation and deflationary risk, tippart of that was securities. that was a real significant issue. more importantly, the mortgage market was behaving terribly. as you know by the beginning of this week, bloomberg was filled with stories about liquidation, mortgage reads not being able to make margin calls and the like. when the fed expanded buying programs, you saw that the stuff that they were buying rallied sharply. investment-grade credit, for example, rallied sharply. since then, high yield has performed and behaved really well. even this morning with s&p down

contractors only five basis points or so wider. bbb's, this story about going to high-yield, potentially swapping those indices is problematic, but the market is behaving pretty well. really that the fed is -- with their programs. alix: that is a really great perspective. i really appreciate that. knapp of ironsides sticking with me. just a few minutes away, the initial jobless claims, your high-frequency weed on -- high-frequency read on how bad this is going to end up being. this is bloomberg.

alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." we are seeing risk off really developed in the market. the s&p has taken a leg lower

down by 2%. you are seeing a bid coming in the dollar bouncing off the low of the session. it continues in the u.s. as well as everywhere in europe, particularly italy and greece, the hardest hit nations there. how bad will it be is the real question. at 3.2 claims coming in .illion well, well, well above estimates. morgan stanley had the biggest estimate with 3.4 million for the week before. obviously claims soaring. really jumping from the week before. pretty brutal, 3.2 million. the final read on the fourth quarter gdp, coming in in line with estimates. retail estimates for february coming in late, knocked down by -.3.

the jobless number, 3.2 million. our economic policy correspondent is with me along with barry knapp. mike, is it as bad as everyone was thinking? mike: yeah. there is no question about that. the forecast was as high as 4 million. this is close. the frustrating thing is we are, because of the lockdown in washington, d.c. we aren't having the lock up that we usually do so we aren't getting as usual. i would like to see the raw totals because these are seasonably adjusted it is probably a lot more than 3.3 million. an interesting note this morning saying every one million increase in jobless claims equals a percentage point in the jobless number, the overall

jobless number. we could see the march payroll report in april go away high. let me see if i've got the raw here.s i don't. these are seasonably adjusted numbers at this point in terms of the data that has come out, but that is a huge number. jump, 3.2s a record million. can you weigh in? how bad is it going to get in the jobs market? going to geterm is bad. i think we need to take a step back saying what do we make out of these numbers? i often joke with my colleagues that typically the initial claims are one of the most boring releases to talk about, but this is not normal times. you are seeing numbers that you have to look twice at the screen

to make sure you saw all right. how long will they last? way that i would interpret it is the uninsurance program was already in place. individuals and firms had knowledge of it. it was natural to activate it as what isiate response to going on to the shutdowns and declining revenues companies are experiencing. i don't anticipate a month from now we will see numbers of the same magnitude. is spiking extraordinarily high, but i would expect the improvement to be quite dramatic as well in a few weeks. anx: i think that is interesting point. we had a headline 20 minutes ago that said walmart found 25,000 workers when they wanted to hire in one week. we had a massive stimulus coming down which some say should

flatten the curve of initial jobless claims. is that what you are getting it? simona: it is that. it is essentially the issue of how long will the shelter-in-place and shut down order be effective? it is going to be very difficult for the economy to survive at rate. we have to do it in the moment. we have to do it perhaps for a month or little more than a month. let's not kid ourselves. the stimulus package is not the substitute for the real economy. now that you have social distancing, monetary stimulus, the next debate will have to be how do you bring people safely back to work? discussionis not the for today, but certainly it will be the discussion a few weeks from now. those people who have filed for unemployment, many more will still file, they will slowly

come back. that is where the focus needs to be. yhe stimulus and the mone transferred from the government is not the substitute for the economy coming back on its own feet. is this employment subsidy program part of the fiscal stimulus? are wend of tick up going to see so you slow the new filings? we don't know yet. alix: on the flipside, how much worse is it going to get when you have the companies having to shut as well. the caterpillar is withdrawing its financial outlook for 2020 will step we have seen many companies in many sectors do that. it is running the majority of its u.s. operations, but it is impacting its supply chain. what is your take? barry: i said a couple of things

about what happened and the industrial side of the economy. the fact that claims were this high, it has a silver lining in as much as it means unemployment insurance systems didn't break down. there were reports of the system being antiquated and not being able to work the way it was supposed to work. point 2 million claims applies these people were able to get these benefits right away. it is misunderstood or underappreciated, the amount of turnover that takes place in so many of these economic sectors. hospitality, 40 percent of that workforce turns over every quarter. these are people accustomed to being out of work for some time, then going back to work. i think the economy is more dynamic than people expect.

the other guest is right, i'm not sure she was necessarily implying this, but if we are talking about a shut down and redo bring people back -- [inaudible] having connectivity issues. hold onto that thought. did you find the non-seasonably adjusted number? michael: we have a funny statistical quirk, if you can laugh at anything in these numbers. the raw numbers for the week were 2.9 million. the seasonal factors pushed that up to 3.3 million. the total number is slightly less. numbers,n the total the percentage change from last week, jobless claims went up 1053%. it blows everything away.

toshows the immediate damage the economy. so many people had trouble getting to their unemployment insurance office, in person, on the phone, or on the computer, we should see another significant number next week as well. anecdotally a lot of people tried to get on the website and couldn't do that. the s&p after the non-seasonably adjusted number, that is interesting we are down by 28 futures. the s&p you are wrapping up your thought about how we are going to see this evolve? barry: yes. i'm not sure where i cut out, but the point i was trying to make is leisure and hospitality, the retail sector, they get 40% of their employees to turn over every quarter. the employees are often out of work.nd then re-find

the issue is the duration of the shutdown, the timeline. or asked about caterpillar, pointed out caterpillar and the issues there. the manufacturing pmi's this week were better than expected. supply chains may respond a little better to the shutdown then people thought. get theind we can industrial side of the economy to trade flowing sooner than people thought. it comes down to the length of the timeline, which is why looking at those curves and seeing when the rate of change of new cases slows is critical to this dynamic. alix: go ahead. simona: i was going to say i agree with the idea there are areas of the economy that can withstand this shock better than

others. it is the exact opposite situation then 2019 when any fracturing was hurting and services were doing ok. situatione covid actually places manufacturing, construction at an advantage services. it is probably easier to coordinate the social distancing arrangement which allows these industries than a bar or restaurant. to end with you. we talked a lot about the economic, government impact, etc. what is your top way to invest right now? barry: sure. i guess i begin, and i listened to your segment with david kostin, who was a competitor of mine, then i was a client of his, so i know his work well --

i went through and i tried to frame out based on all of this cycles forward. where the s&p downside was. i think we were pretty close to the vicinity of where the stock market should go to. what i did in particular on monday, what i told clients to do over the weekend and i acted on on monday, i bought software stocks and the health care. i think those will be winners on the other cited of this. this created a bit of a fire sale. i think this will be a short recession. is right withn his earnings trajectory and they will improve in the fourth quarter, the stock market typically bottoms six months before earnings. we are where the timing low should occur as well. buying on weakness is the right thing to do. alix: i really appreciate it.

thank you for your patience helping to break down those numbers. so, just to recap for you initial jobless claims hitting a record 3.3 million. as mike pointed out on a non-seasonably adjusted better better, they were 2.9 million. overall, terrible, crushing estimates. caterpillar withdrawing its financial outlook for 2020. they see the impact spreading to their supply chains. coming up on the program, making sure delivery goods are staying safe. how delivery ceos keep track of the freight market and how it is holding up. remember, any cards we use throughout the show are on your gtv. check it out. this is bloomberg. ♪

viviana: coming up later today in an exclusive interview with marathon asset chairman and ceo. viviana: you are taking a live look at bloomberg daybreak with your business flash. we begin with sergio and monty who says clients are starting to invest again. he said those with cash are looking at the credit market. glades on to say he is

banks are not part of the problem. they are trying to be part of the solution. a warning across the financial industries. bonuses could drop 40% or more. "a perfect storm is taking shape." he says a global recession and a broader industry shakeup will crush bonuses. alix? alix: thanks. it is time for the bottom line. we will look at sectors worth watching. our focus is on the critical part of an industry keeping products going in the u.s., trucking and logistics. inightwaves is a transport logistic data company widely considered the go to for information on the freight market. i want to pivot off jobless claims which were significantly weaker. what have you done in terms of hiring/laying off staff/pay? ahead.we are full steam

we made slight reductions earlier this year to the cyclical nature of trucking, but right now we are getting demand for data services. companies are trying to figure out what's happening right now. the historical models are breaking down.real-time information is far more important to companies involved in relief and recovery projects. we are dealing with health care providers. grocers are really important. even fema, we are coordinating data analytics for the federal government and helping them figure out what happened to the supply chain. this is unprecedented. alix: can you give us some insight into what has happened to the supply chain? craig: we have actually seen more volume in the freight market in the last two weeks than we have ever seen. volume from mid february to this week is up 32%.

we are seeing a massive surge from mid february. if you look at the last peak in 2018, the volumes are up 15%. that was the big record. that was a point when freight was in superhigh demand. evene seeing a surge greater than that. how sustainable is this short-term and long-term, and what happens to the freight economy once the pre-ordering of grocery items and consumer packaged goods slows down? that is what we are monitoring right now. alix: i want to touch on something you've said. we are seeing this huge jump in freight volume. what are logistic issues we are coming up against if any? craig: the traditional supply chain models have completely broken down. trucking company networks are

completely disrupted. there is no air freight capacity. the airlines shut down cargo and their networks, so that is impacting cargo flow. there is so much demand across the transportation network in unusual spots, spots not getting the kind of volume they are getting. it is completely disrupting the network for these transportation companies. they have to act on the fly. they have to respond to peak demand and disruption from their usual routes. that is placing a concern. the concern is the truck drivers. these are individuals driving and having to coordinate these efforts at a time they are also concerned about their own health. if we are watching anything, it is really concerned about the health of the drivers, making sure win states and governments implement these state at home,

stay in place rules and laws, they are considering the fact that truck drivers are necessary to the health of our economy and the health of people. alix: we also have a question from a viewer asking, what is the effect of truck stop closures in some states? can you give us some insight into that? craig: the commercial truck stops have not closed. they have shut down their restaurants so drivers cannot drive in -- dine in. that is creating some strain because they can't drive their truck through a drive-through window at a fast food place. that has impacted them. where we see closures is rest stops. state government owned rest stops. the rest stops on the side of the highway. they have shut down. pennsylvania did that and there was an enormous amount of backlash from the industry. we, other editorial outlets, and

resources responded to that and brought light to the facilities being necessary to drivers to be able to sleep, rest, and pull over so they aren't on the highways when they aren't driving. alix: is that limiting their productivity and time? craig: the government has basically -- the traditional logging rules, the hours of service which mitigate the hours drivers can drive -- the relief.nt has provided if you are involved in any type of relief project related to the covid-19, grocery or medical supplies, you are not required to adhere to those hours of service rules right now. they have provided relief. the question is driver health short-term and long-term. what happens to drivers as they, some of them, inevitably get

exposed to the virus or start concerned.wey are seeing places like california, washington, and new york where drivers are not willing to go into those areas. we are seeing rejections , freight companies rejecting loads into those markets. alix: thank you very much. i really appreciate it. you will have to come back. we want to look at the future of the industry after this is over. slogg up, it is a long into inflationary transition. don't are heading out, forget to tune into bloomberg radio. this is bloomberg. ♪

alix: it is time for technically

speaking. you're looking at deflationary trends starting with bond yields. >> it is important to remember the trend in yields was down before covid hit. the white line is a 30-year break even overlaid with the bond yield. the bond yields are for the first time ever below the 30-year breakeven. inflation. fear of expect any uptick to be fleeting. that leads us to the next chart of crude oil. trend down.bout a goldman had a scathing report saying it is going to get really brutal and we are going to have this locations in price. it's going to get bad. mike: one simple way to look at crude oil is what was support for the last 10 years is probably resistant. two thousand 2008, 16, resistance around 30.

20 should be support. look at bond yields. there is no time of resistance. in crude oilsslog and bond yields at lower plateaus. producers'usic to ears. coming up in the open with jon ferro, the academy securities head of macro strategies. you are seeing s&p futures off the lows of the session by one percentage point. initial jobless claims begging the question how much bad news is baked into the market? 3.3 million initial claims. this is bloomberg. ♪

jon: from new york city for our audience worldwide, good morning. this is the countdown to the open with 30 minutes until the opening bell. equity futures recovering now 1% on thene third of following the first back-to-back gain since the middle of february. treasury yields are lower by seven basis points. foreign exchange, another day of dollar weakness. that is your price action. we begin with the big issue. behind every economic data point is a story of many people's lives. that is no different than the initial jobless claims that came out 30 minutes ago. i said this morning we have to realize behind the number 3.2 8 million jobless claims there is real economic insight -- economic and psychological pain that i know many,