tv Bloomberg Daybreak Asia Bloomberg March 29, 2020 7:00pm-9:00pm EDT
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haidi: a very good morning. markets have just come online. taylor: welcome to daybreak asia. here the top stories were following. markets bracing for another volatile week as u.s. futures crumble. traders are concerned that virus infection continues to rise, all could getin america as high as 200,000.
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peak fatality rates could come in the next two weeks. haidi: brent crude is at its lowest price in trading since late 2002. the australian markets have just opened. let's get straight to sophie kamaruddin. sophie: shares opening lower in sydney. we are seeing and struggling -- australian in vectors -- australian economy goes into hibernation. it should strengthen gdp 10% this quarter. as for new zealand, 14% quarterly contraction in the second quarter before rebounding as officials wrap up. buying corporate bonds from tuesday. off more than 2%. nikkei futures in chicago under
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pressure. analysts believe the economy is already in recession. japanese prime minister shinzo to fund the biggest ever stimulus package. futures sinking more than 2%. worries about economic growth and dwindling demand also playing out in the oil market. wti testing $20. flipping back, president trump is still speaking at the white house, where earlier he said he would extend the guidelines for americans to distance themselves from one another until april 30. i want to cross over to our bloomberg coanchor shery ahn in new york. -- peakths coming deaths in about two weeks. what does this mean for us? shery: this is interesting. president trump initially said
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he wanted to reopen the economy by april 12. now he is saying the social distancing guidelines will be extended to april 30. in fact saying we might see the peak extent of the virus during this period. take a listen. thate modeling estimates the peak in death rate is likely to hit in two weeks. so, i will say it again. the peak, the highest point, of death rates. remember this. is likely to hit in two weeks. shery: president trump is still optimistic that we might expect to see recovery by june 1. stil the picture is griml,. talking from dr. fauci potentially 200,000 deaths across the u.s. birxard also from dr.
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saying even with mitigation 160,000 80,000 to succumbing to the disease. taylor: are you there? haidi: in the meantime, president trump continuing to blast states. there are supplies but some are not getting through. what kind of accusation is he making here? shery: we have seen this growing tensions since the outbreak between the federal government and the states. between president trump and state governments. right now trump is saying states are stocked up with supplies, even though some of them do not admit it. we have seen an open and public feud between michigan governor gretchen whitmer and the president over the past week. this has subsided a little. president trump now saying the governors are happy with the job
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the ministries and is doing, although we continue to hear from individual states saying they're not getting equipment. the state with the fourth highest number of deaths, louisiana, saying they are going to run out of ventilators within a week. taylor: a lot of companies have come into line after the production act threat. what do we know about some of the companies helping to produce, whether it be ventilators or waiving copayments. what are some of these companies that are stepping up to the plate, if you will? shery: insurance companies have been put on the spotlight. the one company that has been at the focus of president trump's wrath has been general motors. now he is saying they are doing a fantastic job and is not
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worrying anymore. we saw an order issued on side at -- friday citing the production -- defense production act. despite we have seen gm trying to reassess some of their equipment. that of course takes days. we have seen them act, but we have the president implementing this order in order to move to actually make the products faster when it comes to negotiating. trump with these companies is now saying he may use this once or twice more. but for now he is happy some companies are coming in line after the threat of using that. our coanchorahn, in new york with us. meanwhile in europe, the death toll continues to mount. spain suffering its highest
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number of daily fatalities, even on the pace of new infections slowed. stephen engle tracking the development. when you look at the reported numbers out of europe, spain and italy versus the numbers we saw out of china reportedly, we are seeing a surge in deaths comparatively. is there any good news we are seeing? stephen: we have several governments and the health officials in the government's saying there might be a silver lining as far as seeing the peak coming. the region of northern italy around milan, the governor there saying they may be nearing the peak. that is good news for the area that has seen nothing but bad news. the number of deaths did fall for a second straight day in italy, albeit slightly. more people, 756 succumbed to this outbreak on sunday. that was down from 889 on
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saturday. there's still these very stark numbers. new infections down slightly for a second day in a row to 5217. but the magnitude of this, italy has 97,689 cases. 10,779 deaths. there might be some good news amid real morbid news in spain. new deaths were the most on record, 828, in just 24 hours. but new infections rising at a slower pace. but the government is warning about complacency. taylor: over the weekend and this morning moscow ordered people to stay at home as the coronavirus spreads. what is russia's new phase? has beenrussia adopting increasingly strict measures all week. we had all international flights stopped as of friday, and now we
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are hearing in moscow, they are ordering the 12 million-plus residents there to stay home starting today, monday. there's also a week long off work week. it is a bit of a confusing title. vladimir putin saying it is a work from home week, and others are saying it is a holiday. however, people are instructed to only go out for essentials. cases is about two thirds of the national total in russia, and eight deaths. but it might be just the tip of the iceberg as they have not had national testing. taylor: still ahead, singapore's monetary authorities policed to take unprecedented action in the next hour on its key policy tool, the currency ban. a preview, coming up. haidi: next, cumberland advisor
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hong kong will provide extra financial aid for businesses hit by the coronavirus. workerss are to protect but declined to offer details or a timeline. the government has banned public gatherings for more than four people and have moved -- closed movie theaters, gyms, and shopping arcades. the prime minister of singapore is painting a grim picture of the economic fallout from the virus. aviation and tourism are virtually dead in the city space, and disruptions to global supply chains are now having a direct impact on exports.
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42 new deaths in singapore sunday, bringing the total to about 850. indonesia is preparing to quarantine almost 30 million people in jakarta and surrounding areas as the death toll continues to rise. daily movement is already restricted and a decision on a full lockdown is expected monday. infections in jakarta account for half the national total, with 114 deaths, the highest in southeast asia. authorities want to prevent an exodus of people leaving the city. the philippines are further supporting the economy as policymakers try to contain the fallout from the virus. the central bank governors says much has already been done but much more can be done if necessary. they finalize the buying of $6 billion of debt from the treasury under a three month repurchase arrangement. renewables for another three months. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.
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i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. taylor: aussie markets have lowered. u.s. futures also pointing lower. volatility,l the now is time to study the ship for investors. david kotok, ceo of cumberland advisors. i have been desperate to get your thoughts. you have a wide variety of clients who call you up and are desperate because we are in panic. what do you tell them to study some of the fears by not selling everything and going all cash? david: thank you. whoave had a few clients forced a liquidation. anymore,d not take it so me out, go to cash. allocations and off. after bonds sold
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in tax free, because the tax free market, very high-grade securities in the united states, became very attractive. it is so today. in the stock market we have cash reserves in the number of our styles. of course in a selloff the cash reserve is never large enough. but we have not reinvested it, and we say to the clients, let's stay the course with the risk. so, the risk has a composition, which looks beyond the valley. it looks forward a year or 18 months or two years, to the other side of the crisis. and that emphasizes the health care sector, it emphasizes sectors which seem to be buffered, and it avoids the trouble sectors, which is of
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course cruise ships, airlines, hospitality, the sectors which are being brutally hurt in this period. everything of course depends on testing, testing, testing. son on the antibody testing, somebody can be told you had it, you've got antibodies, you do not have to fear death anymore. and ultimately, treatment. there are several in the works, and vaccines, there are several in the works. and that is what we have to tough it out through. taylor: what are you waiting for in order to put some of your cash to work? david: we looked at the selloff, which was a waterfall, as we know. and we looked at the rebound, and the rebound was from a very oversold condition. it's not enough for us to deploy
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that cash. wehave the targets, and think the opportunities a year or two from now are very positive. but waiting to see the closer timetable of treatment, testing, and vaccine, is very important to us. it's getting better every day. new testings this procedure. arere are -- there several vaccines at work and in trial. every day that goes by, the news says it is getting closer. we want to get closer. haidi: the positive headlines, but it still feels very far away from something that is a solid hope that will be able to get workers back into the workforce and the economy back on track. i am wondering, without
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widespread testing, without more of a centralized approach to this, how easy is it going to be to be able to fully reopen an economy when we do not know, really, the true infection rates throughout the community? and committee transmission could still happen, because at the moment we do not have the tech knology to test immunity -- technology test immunity. david: you are absolutely right. the assumption that we can turn a switch in a month or two and everything will be ok is a faulty assumption in my opinion. i wish it were different. we have to sustain in the united jobss, 20, 30, 40 million are housed in small and independent businesses, and we have to do it until we turn this corner. prague -- the programs of
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masco fiscal -- of massive fiscal and monetary combined are trying to do that. think of it as, stay in business and do not go bankrupt loan, until you can turn this around and hold your labor force, don't lay people off. and that is the type of programming which is being developed in an enormous hurry. it's so important to preserve that turnaround in place, and that is the key challenge for policymakers. in your notes it says we have seen all the data when it comes to the drop in emissions, clearer waters in china and europe. you are saying the planet will be better for this at the other end because people will not want to give that up. as much as i would like to believe you, isn't it more likely we will see a ramp up of
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industrial activity as countries scramble to get back on track? david: that is the interesting question. i guess it depends on which economy in which government and which group of citizens. the evidence out of china suggests that the air pollution the higher death rates. and the evidence that smokers have higher death rates would be supportive of the danger of the pollution. on the other hand, you are right. look at priscilla, the president of -- look at brazil. fighting with his governors and calling them criminals because they want to shut down providences and protect their citizens. so i am not saying it's about governance, but i think there are a bunch of folks around the world who can look at the world and say, wait a minute, that may
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be something we now need to change in o. in our firm, we have taken and are holding a position in solar, wind, and water. three different exchange traded funds. and when we deploy cash reserves, we will rebalance and add to them. haidi: david, always great to have you. we will get more markets coverage just ahead. andrew sullivan joins us at 9:00 a.m. hong kong time. speaking also with fidelity' along with us as well. ♪
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outdoor public gatherings to two people and plenty more canonic stimulus as a number of coronavirus cases continues to rise. paul allen joins us now in sydney. new social distancing move -- rules are even more draconian. the fact they are going to be quite rigorously enforced. the premier said there would be $1000 fines for anyone gathering in groups of more than two outside who are not family members. the state of victoria announcing similar fines. that people are continuing to be complacent. across the street from me today there was a boot camp gathering in defiance of the incoming measures. we have also had public servants , clarity around their situation. the elderly told to stay at home. people were told only to go out
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for essentials and outdoor playgrounds, gyms, and skate parks all closed. we have had cases likely to top 4000 today in austria, 16 dead. but this incremental approach does seem to be working. the chief medical officer said the daily increase in austria has nownd 25%, and it tapered off to the midteens. mean forhat does it your fiscal side of things? paul: the government will step up. this will be the third major package expected later today. signaling this one will include wage subsidies of the sort we have seen in the u.k., denmark, and canada. modestly, up around 1%. but coming after days and weeks of severe losses, it is
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something of a welcome or spite. -- respite. retailers also announcing closures. the iconic department store myers has closed. the jobless rate expected to hit 1210. the government asking there be a moratorium on evictions from commercial properties, as well as rental properties. we have had the treasurer speak today as well about foreign investment. investment will be subject to review. priority given to any investment likely to support australian jobs. taylor: paul allen joining us from sydney. i do want to get a quick check of some of the latest business flash headlines. the main group says ceo has died from complications linked to the coronavirus, marking one of the first reported deaths among senior
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wall street figures. he was 56 and had been cfo since late 2007, following a 16 year career at morgan stanley. the news comes as thousands of traders deemed essential continue to head into the office every day. lenderchina's number two improving its defenses against potential losses from the shutdown and the economy at the start of 2020. net income rose to $38 billion. joint rivals -- they join reivals in seemingly weathering the storm. taylor: a top chinese refiner has reported employee earnings down almost 7%. net income slid to just over $8 billion last year from $8.6 billion in 2018. operating profit fell 44%,
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the president of the dallas fed said he expects u.s. unemployment to peak in the low to mid teens in the coming months. this as businesses hunker down amid the coronavirus pandemic. robert kaplan says he sees the rate recovering to around 7% or 8% of the end of the year. he spoke with bloomberg in an exclusive interview from dallas. proposalhe key to the from the fed point of view is there is a number of special purpose vehicles that are being created to implement these programs to buy.
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each of these special purpose vehicles requires approximately $10 billion to seed. bill willney from the be used to seed these various programs we have announced. >> the bill suggests two new programs from the fed. one for companies and one for the main street lending program you guys talked about. what is the difference between the two, and what is the main street program? robert: the details are still being worked out. but the long and the short of it is we would help lend to small businesses, but we would do it most likely through commercial banks. but we will provide credit support to those banks so that they can step forward and make loans that are appropriate. that they can do it with
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confidence that they have credit support. that program is still being developed and we are still working on the details. >> the need is immediate. how soon do you think you can start getting cash to companies? robert: i would think very quickly. to avoid careful setting exact timetables, but you can be sure that we are working furiously here at the theto put the -- to have teams in place and have the details, and you can have confidence we will do that. >> you will also have the ability to states and cities. give me an idea of how that would work. robert: primarily we have already announced we will be buying through another special purpose vehicle, the commercial paper of cities and states, municipalities. and that program is already well underway in terms of being forme
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d. it's going to be primarily through the purchase of commercial paper that's issued. >> some of this lending seems to put monetary policy squarely in the fiscal camp how. do you feel about that. ? robert: in this environment it is necessary. in that while it is unusual, and a number of these authorities are unprecedented, i think it is critical that we adapt to the reality on the ground, and we adapt to the challenge, and that is what we are doing. so in this situation it is quite appropriate. >> can you get out of this when it is all over? robert: yes. we'll obviously how -- have to work on how to do that in an appropriate way, but yes, i believe that we will. the country understands this is an unusual time, and the reason we are implementing these
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programs is either municipalities or businesses or other entities do not have cash flow because we have asked them to shut down. once they are up and running again and they have their own cash flow, we will be able to, i would think, withdraw from some of these programs. to makehe void, we want sure that these small businesses, large businesses, medium-size businesses and municipalities continue to function. that is critical as we do the things we need to do do social distance and quarantine in some cases in order to defeat this virus. taylor: that was dallas fed president robert kaplan. features, off about 1.3%. i want to transition to sophie kamaruddin. how is that affecting your asian market? sophie: drop 2.5%. early in the asia session,
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volatility had been so gripping. virus --t of the the u.k. and south africa had their credit ratings marked lower. and sterling for the first time this week. aussie shares edging higher. adding as much as 1.4%. resource dragging. given the continued slump in oil prices, coupled with travel restrictions in australia, puts the country's energy and travel sector most at risk. let's switch out the board for a quick check on the dollar. under pressure. if policy is eased. losses may be limited given that
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markets are pricing that in. haidi: sophie kamaruddin now. cranfield with us. seeing a nervous start for s&p 500 futures. it is quite clear that volatility has not come close to finding a bottom. mark: we have to get through the march quarter, plus people are looking ahead to what happens in can probablypeople be a bit more active in the markets. obviously the news flow we are seeing in the past 24 hours is not encouraging for risk-taking. the u.s. is now becoming the focal point of the pandemic. nervous of how much more of an economic impact that will have. we saw oil prices briefly below $20. down about 5% today.
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s&p futures with a pretty edgy start. signs that the usual risk off factors are coming back into play. as we get more economies revising their outlooks, the mood is not good as we start the new week. as we go into april, we will get a lot of data that will reflect some of the weakness. it will be a pretty ugly picture for a lot of countries, so people are really bracing for a slew. even though we are expecting bad things to happen, it does not mean to say it is fully priced in. taylor: when we talk about nervousness, the credit markets have seen a lot of stress last week. slowly coming off the widening off of the spreads we saw. credit markets, what other assets show you nervousness in these markets? mark: certainly credit is one
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space because the ratings downgrade was only just off. we saw mexico downgraded. a number of corporate's already have negative outlooks. it will probably pick up over the next few weeks. probably going to see particularly the energy sector very vulnerable. airlines as well. this slew of earnings and corporate downgrades continues to come in, that will certainly affect credit. something we are watching closely. we are looking at the government bond market. treasuries were not far away from the highs we saw from wall street. the central banks pumped more liquidity. government bonds will be very focal. looking for them for yields to grind lower. in the currency space, the yen will be in focus.
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some are calling it to go back to 101. the u.s. dollar is significant lower than where we are these days. these things will come back into the picture, and certainly it's ary edgy, not willing to come -- commit much either way. as sophie mentioned, singapore's central bank is preparing for what could be an unprecedented action to bolster financial markets and its economy. kathleen hays is here with more. what should we expect? kathleen: they are expected to down,wo steps and doubled as so many central banks have, in trying to look at the wreckage being caused by the coronavirus and do something about it. singapore is different. they have a currency ban. th singapore dollare, which they
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manipulate. because they are small and open economy, very dependent on exports. 40% of gdp is tied up in imports. so they have to fight inflation in this way. what they are supposed to do is set the slow of their currency appreciation against trading partner currency. that will give them some relief. they are also expected to re-center the ban by reducing the slope of it. it does not seem likely because the currency is trading at the weak side, so re-centering to support growth was not viable last year. it shifted, so they are ready to move. to put this in a more macroeconomic perspective, this move in the currency ban comes after a second virus fighting stimulus package, $8 billion. total stimulus is equal now to
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about 11% of gdp. they had a very bad number, down 10.6%. the prime minister concerned over tourism suffering, very important to singapore. about supply chains being disrupted. they are big exporters, exporting so much of what they make in terms of growth, revenue. it's a very important move, widely expected. step withto be in every other monetary authority around the world. also, the rbi. what have they done and what more ammunition is there at the bank of india? kathleen: that is what every central bank is asked. 75 basis points, 4.4%. his war on the virus. trillion, also
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offering a three month loan moratorium. he has gone to war against the virus. listen to what he said on friday. war effort has to be mounted, and is being mounted to combat the virus. using conventional and unconventional measures in a continuously battle-ready mode. indiann: of course the economy was already not doing so well. they cut their key rates several times. so you have to say yes, how much more ammunition do they move. this comes one day after the finance minister of injury announced a one point $7 trillion relief package for the core of india. there have been many stories about poor people who if forced to stay home, will die. giving them relief as well, which is so important. haidi: kathleen hays with us. osterholm.el
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karina: u.s. fatalities could top 200,000. dr. angeli found she said -- the europeanom space agency shall industrial missions falling as the continents lows during the coronavirus. including air quality. the images come as italy reports its second straight daily fall and the number of virus deaths. italy and spain remain the hardest hit nations in europe, with total fatalities between them topping 17,000. the u.k. government is warning the lockdown could last for months and the number of deaths
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is expected to rise. they also heard ministers are considering tighter distancing measures to control the outbreak if current rules prove inadequate. boris johnson remains in isolation after testing positive for the infection. japan is planning an additional budget to battle the virus with shinzo abe warning of a long battle at. people must remain vigilant ruled out the need for a state national emergency. the postponed olympics may be held july of next year. organizers are planning to make july 23, 2021 the opening date. global news 24 hours a day on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm karina mitchell. this is bloomberg. guest says it is too late to avoid a coronavirus disaster in the u.s. leaders need to level with the public and develop a strategy to
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prevent the worst. director of the center for infectious disease, michael osterholm joins us now. professor, great to have you. what does a unified national strategy look like? because in countries like in the u.s. and australia, you are seeing a real divergence in the approaches going from state to state and on a federal national level. michael: thank you. first of all it is really important to understand that everyone has now begun to realize that a plan of any kind has to be something that will last for months, not something that would just be a one time hit. this is not like an earthquake or a tsunami, where it is a short-lived hit, and then you recover. this has been a very big challenge to countries around the world to understand that, for example in the u.s., as bad as things are, we are just getting started. haidi: it also means finding what a middle ground is. in australia we have a
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government talking about a hibernation policy, incrementally shutting parts of the economy. moral question of what you do from a public health perspective, and the implications for the economy? which then becomes more of a humanitarian issue. michael: this is really at the very heart of what we need to be deciding today as far as national plans. we have to understand what it means to have coronavirus here in our countries. first, this is not going to get over with anytime soon. even those who suggested there may be seasonal changes in the disease, whether it is your winter, our winter, whatever. there's no evidence that will happen. this could roll on for six or more months. we are still seeing case transmissions in china five months into their outbreak, which they have done truly the most unprecedented population limitation requirements anywhere in the world. so you have to get prepared for
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that. your point is a really good one. we lockdown for eight, 10, 15 months more, until we may hopefully one day have a vaccine? that will not just because economic disaster, but we have a world that needs to have its people to pick up garbage, that take care of people in health care settings, fire, police, groceries, etc. we cannot just completely lockdown. on the other hand if we do not do dramatic things, we will overwhelm every health care system in the world. not just overwhelm it in the way with patients, but people who would normally seek health care, people with heart attacks, people with cancer, people were injured, they will also not get services. we need to find a middle ground. how do we release a segment of our population, particularly those at the lowest risk of having serious disease, to continue to operate the world as we know it, but at the same time shelter-in-place as much as we
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can those at higher risk of having serious disease and dying. and it is threading that needle with a rope that we need to do. taylor: when can we get to the point where you can isolate and quarantine the high-risk population while letting the other populations, who have either tested positive in recovered or tested negative for coronavirus, to support the economy and let those people get back to work and push us forward? michael: you raise a very important point, too. as more people become infected, two things happen. one is, first of all, once they recover, they are likely remove -- immune for the foreseeable future. they are the ones who can be interacting with anyone and not worry about getting infected or transmitting the virus to someone else. is -- if youing are not able to be infected or transmit the virus on, more people like that will slow down
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the virus spread. so clearly we have to understand what it means to be able to bring these people back into everyday life and use them as really very important members of the community to stop virus transmission and to live with it. i think the other point that really needs to be considered here is who is at high risk. and we are now getting data emerging out of the united states in contrast to what we saw in china. there we saw older men and women, primarily smokers who had the highest risk. in china over 70% of individuals 65 years older smoke. we do not see that in the u.s. or austria. but what we see is an epidemic of obesity. well over 45% of the u.s. population, men and women over 50, are obese. right now we have data coming out of new york in particular that suggests obesity is a major risk factor for also having a complicated infection, and one where you may be more seriously
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ill and die. one of the things we have to make -- look at carefully and make recommendations as to who we protect the most, we are not clear on that yet. we cannot use data from just one country because underlying conditions will vary in terms of problems and frequency in which they occur. taylor: i want to give our audience a lesson on utility theory. you maximize happiness and wealth as the most population you can. yet i read through your opinion piece and you say pitting human life against long-term economics presents a false choice. why? michael: it is a false choice because in fact the world's health is tied to economics. when there are downtimes, when we are in recessions and depressions, we see increased occurrences of serious disease, because people cannot financially access health care, or they are in a position of
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depression where we see more mental health problems occur. at the same time we have these problems is when we actually need to have people be able to be part of the everyday life of picking up garbage, or of making sure that in much appalled in areas that elevators work, or fire, police, etc.. there should not be a choice one way or the other, it is how do you integrate the two. dieave to learn to both with the virus and to live with it. how do we do with that -- deal with that in the most effective way, so in 18 months or so when we have a vaccine and come out of the situation, we have done the most good for the most people? that is what we need to really concentrate on today, really maximize both the health and the economy. they are one of the same in many ways. -- one in the same in many ways. haidi: to get that level of confidence so that we can reopen
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the globe, reopen the economy, we have to have a reasonable idea of immunity. withoutoing to get that very widespread standardized testing everywhere? michael: first of all, to talk about getting that immunity, which in fact is what you are stating, is we have to have a test to know. have you been infected and are you now immune? that's an antibody test. that is different from the swab that you are seeing now. we need to make sure we had the tests available. to make we do, we have sure they are produced in the kind of volumes that the world will demand. right now we are running out of testing reagents for detection of the virus itself, the throat swab. it is a real challenge for us to say even who is infected in my own home state of minnesota. we are very limited who we can test because we do not have
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enough tests available. why? hasglobal supply chain collapsed because everybody in the world at once wanted it. china contribution to reagent manufacturing, the chemicals we need for the tests, is substantial, and they have been down. so we do need to get these antibody tests available so people can know if they have been infected and now protected, but it will not come anytime soon. meaning it will not be tomorrow, next week, next month. but we do need them soon. was michael oser home. thank u.s. always. markets open -- that was michael oser home. f' ' sophie: sony in view.
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heads up. flow,oncern over cash airlines looking into a $920 million loan. toyota seeking a $9 billion credit line to two japanese banks. idk buying commercial paper and corporate bonds. set to provide $10 billion to banks . moon'stching president emergency meeting. ahead of singapore's decision expecting a corrective action today, which could see them lower to zero. good test recent lows. losses could be limited given the markets are pricing in this
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new york, i am taylor riggs peered welcome today break asia. asia-pacific markets bracing for a volatile week as u.s. futures tumbled. oil tanks again, wti falling below $20 at one point, right now its lowest since late 2002. america warned coronavirus deaths may top 200,000. president trump says it peaked for tally rates could come in the next two weeks. theoriginal epicenter of outbreak is getting back to normal. -- president trump says peak fatality rates could come in the next two weeks. wuhan eases months of restrictions. news are getting breaking when it comes to the singapore monetary authority. the singer poor central bank -- the central bank decision reducing the slope of the currency bound to zero and keeping the with steady. this is how sensually -- essentially, singapore conducts its unorthodox method of
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monetary policy through its tweaks to its currency. the headline, singapore reducing the slope of the currency bound to zero, largely aligned with expectations. we were expecting aggressive singapore the defective central bank in terms of countering the impact of the coronavirus, which has decimated ,ndustries including tourism and expert in services exposed in the singapore economy. also they see for cpi, seeing a contraction of 1%, or 0%. the mas at the moat -- the most optimistic seeing 0% inflation for 2020 saying the central bank has adopted 80 singapore dollar slope starting at the prevailing level. 2020 gdp is seen at a contraction of 4% to 1%. really dire expectations. then again, we have the mas matching the government expectations of the contraction
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of 1% to its worst of 4% to 2020 growth. changing the slope of the singapore dollar to 0% per year. uncertaintyficant when it comes to the depth and duration of the recession, saying the singapore economy will see contraction this year. that that sing dollar has depreciated to a level below the bands midpoint. in summary we are seeing detail from the statement. the adoption of 0% per annum appreciation rate for the policy band starting at the prevailing level we are seeing. no change to the width of the policy band. let's get market reaction now with sophie kamaruddin. sing dollar for the we have at the front foot this morning trading at one spot 4218. we are seeing a steep reaction to this update from the monetary authority of singapore as it eases policy reducing the currency band a slope to zero.
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more recession risk for singapore and the region. in japan we have analysts anticipate the economy there has fallen into a recession in this quarter. let's check in on the mood with the nikkei opening lower by 3.4% while the yen is gaining ground, strengthening further low 108. a lot of focus on more stimulus that may come through. japanese prime minister shinzo abe is expected to announce budgets after presenting a plan in 10 days. let's check in on the mood in seoul. we see losses for the kospi and the korean won. trading at levels last seen since 2011 anticipating liquidity support from the be ok. thus we have from that katie be an i dk looking at refinancing commercial paper and bonds looking at demand for refinancing. let's check in on -- the kddi. we are seeing aussie stocks
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adding .7%, one green spot across the board. the aussie dollar is under pressure tracking the losses we have seen in crude. brent off for more than 5% today, $20 per barrel. of u.s.eck out futures pe minis off 1% compared to an early drop of 2.5%. >> i want to get more reaction to the moves by the singapore monetary authority with ocbc head of treasury research and strategy joining us via skype. curious to get your thoughts and if markets are reacting to the singapore monetary authority easing policy, or the fact that now they are thinking the economy will enter a recession this year. what do you -- what stands out to you as what markets are trading off of? >> monetary policy easing was in line with expectations. we recently saw the downgrade of the official growth forecast last week.
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and the blockbuster resigns package. i think the statement reemphasizes it is fiscal policy doing the heavy lifting. policy --tory monetary policy easing is to be expected, it will become symmetric and not the main driver for trying to get off some of the -- it will be complementary and not the main driver for try to get off some of the downside risk for covid-19. it will continue to play a role in managing liquidity in the vigilance maintaining . this is a fairly measured but expected move. they are not too knee-jerk about it even though they did bring for the scheduled meeting by a couple of days. >> salina, where is the shock and? shock and awe. strategists say this was built and and they have not come up with anything to shock the
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markets. where is that? >> if you look at recent emergency moves by a lot of major central banks around the awed, the shock and policy seems to work better than fiscal policy and auditory policy. remember what happened to the fed. two emergency cuts and the response was fairly negative. -- fiscal policy and monetary policy. so they have managed expectations well and it did not come as a surprise to the market. the shock and all came as a surprise of the resigns package last week. at $40 billion if you draw that together -- the resilience package. plusit billion dollarys comes up $55 billion. so the shock and ore happened last week. for monetary policy that would like to have a calibrated and measured transition. they do not want to catch people by surprise. in that sense, they have managed
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market expectations well. statement, clearly saying there will be a recession for the singapore economy this year. theerms of not getting shock, there was not a one-off devaluation of the singapore dollar or a re-centering of the band. you surprised by this? does this leave the mis with more ammunition? >> i think there is ambiguity. if you read the statement carefully, they say they will start the zero from the current prevailing level. the current as was trading this morning was below parity. my sense is that it is a modest re-centering, lower and a sense. sense.-- lower in a we need to get clarity on this going forward. a could possibly have been one plus kind of a move meeting that they went to zero but they also reset a little bit. it is not clear yet.
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during that coronavirus. they show improving air quality in major cities from march 21 or 25th. that comes as italy reports a second straight follow the number of virus deaths. italy and spain remain the hardest hit in europe with total for tallies topping 17,000 between the two. government is warning the nationwide virus lockdown could last for months and not weeks. the daily virus briefing also heard ministers are considering tighter distancing measures if current rules prove inadequate. prime minister boris johnson remains in isolation after testing positive for the infection. >> japan is planning an additional budget for the next 10 days to -- in the next 10 days to battle coronavirus. the prime minister warning of a long battle ahead. he says people must remain is lent but root out the need for a stick -- must remain vigilant ruled out the need for national state of emergency.
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be postponed a liv-ex may held in july of next year. nhk says organizers plan to make july 23, 20 to anyone at the opening days. >> hong kong will provide extra financial aid for businesses had by the coronavirus. the chief secretary says the funds are to protect workers but declined to offer details our timeline. the government has banned public gatherings of more than four people and closed movie theaters , gems and shopping arcades. most of hong kong's latest infections are blamed on people returning from abroad. ♪ trump has extended social distancing guidelines until the end of april, going against his initial hopes of reopening the economy by easter eared the administration's top experts now say even with mitigation experts, modeling shows more than 100,000 people could succumb to the disease. think peaked deaths in
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two weeks and reopening april ,0, what do you hear about that potentially now being firmly the case here? shery: that was interesting, taylor, the president was aiming to reopen your economy by easter and he said that is extending social distancing guidelines to april 30. we had heard already from dr. , one memory of the task force, that we could see up to 200,000 deaths if the effects of the breaker not mitigated. we have already heard from dr. that we could see one had a 50,000 deaths if these meditation efforts fail. -- 150,000. right now we see 2300 deaths. the president saying that admitted april we could see the
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deaths and effects of the virus peaking. thate modeling estimates the peak in death rate is likely to hit in two weeks. so, i will say it again. the highest point of death rates. remember this. it is likely to hit into weeks. shery: president trump still expects the country to be on the way to recovery. we have also heard from individual cities like new york state. we have seen around 60,000 cases. new york city alone more than half those cases. mayor de blasio coming out and saying he has confirmed the $500 fine if people failed to social distance.
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haidi: where are we out when it comes to the amount of testing and testing kits? shery: we are now hearing from president trump the testing volume is one of the reason we are seeing such high numbers of u.s. cases. -- has u.s. has a past surpassed every other country in the number of confirmed cases. we are seeing 65 thousand coronavirus testing per day for americans. public health officials saying we need to see 150,000 to be able to test all these people. over the weekend i received an of the few places here in new york where you can get testing, saying they can still only test at risk patients who are a symptom addict -- a symptomatic. there is no elective testing even for people who think they may have been exposed to the virus. haidi: we are awaiting the latest infection numbers out of china after the country sealed its borders.
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-- to most foreigners on saturday. bloomberg's tom mackenzie joins us from beijing. china has reported infections commit back into the country. tom: that's right and that was reemphasized of the weekend when they pointed out the number of confirmed quota virus cases, 54, all of those were imported cases. that was on the 27th. on the 28th, they sealed the borders largely to foreigners entering china as a wait to try to reduce the number of imported cases. it should be stated that the cover minutes all says 90% of those imported cases are chinese nationals who can still come into the country. but it is more to go now to return to china. the number of flights have been cut. we heard students studying abroad have been pressured to
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stay rather than return to china. that is an indication of how far they are willing to go, officials, to keep the number of confirmed infections here as low as they can. other headlines over the weekend, we got a visit from president xi jinping to a port city, signaling, according to the she want state news agency state newsgua agency that getting economy is a priority. and visiting a manufacturer. we got lines out friday from the politburo. china's top leader suggesting they may increase the deficit ratio to ramp up stimulus and may issue sovereign bonds as well. so still us will be increased even if you do knock it back to the 2008-2009 levels. that was the line from the pboc. -- rather the politburo. president xi jinping emphasizing the need to get the economy back
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on track. in terms of imported infections officials continue to try to get those as low as possible, as we had to the national people's congress that could take place in april. corporations are hoarding on debt levels to try to increase cash flow to get them on the other cited this virus. our surging debt levels from corporations now sustainable? tom: that is a key question. this hasst four years, one of the main priorities for officials here, raining and corporate debt. it is below that 163% debt to gdp at a corporate level from 2016, the peak in 2016. so they have had success in writing and corporate debt levels but it is likely now
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according to analysts that those corporate debt levels will increase because we have seen credit tabs open support for state owned enterprises and local government debt level as well. the support for corporate, soa and private companies from local debt issuance. how far that will go is going to be a? -- a question. according to moody's to maneuver. you see the pboc being relatively cautious in its support and it's easing for the economy. they have not pursued aggressive rate cuts we have seen from the fed and other central banks. they have not come down the path of asset purchases. they are being cautious. there is now an acknowledgment among officials that corporate debt levels will have to go up as they try to support the economy and, crucially, keep the numbers of unemployed and jobless numbers as low as possible. in february, 8 million people unemployed, that is having an impact on consumer debt level.
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merchants bank noting eight tickets up in nonperforming loans of consumer debt. that calls into question the ability for the retail sector to bounceback if consumers here are struggling with debt. mackenzie joining us from beijing. next, indonesia is looking at locking down its capital to curb the spread of the coronavirus. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> we are getting the latest numbers out of china when it comes to coronavirus infections. weeksve seen the trend of , additional recorded cases coming from imported cases. china saying they have had 30 one additional cases march 29. and for crown virus deaths nationally. we have seen a significant and dramatic rounding down when it comes to the number of reported cases reported fatalities, stillg in mind we are
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seeing a struggle with these imported numbers hence stricter arrivals of individual -- international visitors to china. turning to the rest of asia. nations, india and indonesia, restricting personal movement as migrant workers to both nations tried to return home, raising a prospect of further spread of the virus. we are tracking the developments -oure and joins us now correspondent joins us now at of hong kong. there was skepticism that they had not reported cases at the beginning but concern is starting to ramp up. >> this is a large country. 264 million people, and archipelago, so yup the threat of isolated customers on various islands, in particular jakarta and the area around west java is seeing a spike in cases now. we have seen jakarta under a
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state of emergency for days now already. they are now mulling perhaps a area, west jobt up. a decision from the government, according to the west job in -- west java governor could come today to lockdown 34 million people. there are not a lot of cases reported right now. what they are trying to do, like india, is to get ahead of the these, dare iin say, to coney and measures. so the numbers do not spike like in the united states and china. measures.an confirmed cases, more than half the national total of 1285. there has been more than 100 parted deaths, the most in southeast asia. >> we think about that and in
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india there federal government is seeking to quarantine migrant workers as well to prevent the movement of people across borders and do their part in contending the coronavirus among the south asian nations. prepared forntries what could be an economic slowdown? are they ready for what is coming? >> there's an economic damage there is health damage and there's the health care system in india, not set up to handle such a sharp rise in cases. the public health care system in india is dilapidated at best and overburdened. what you are seeing now is narendra modi, the prime minister last week and post a national lockdown -- imposed a national lockdown of 1.3 billion people. it has never been done anywhere in the world, that many people. now they are considering a possible quarantine of migrant
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, in the big cities, whether new delhi or mumbai. i goods and their families, since the order came down from the federal government, have been in mass exodus getting out of the big cities back to the countryside. and transportation has been closed down in many places of india. so you have this mass migration of people trying to get out of the big city. the government is trying to prevent that. like indonesia, but with a much bigger population. have a relatively low caseload and death toll so far. beforey to keep that their public health care system and the economy are overburdened. cases, 271024 deaths. >> how she correspondent, stephen engle, thank you. updates,tinue to track
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♪ the mas get a look at decision, what are we seeing in terms of sentiment at the start of the trading week? >> markets were pricing in that move from the mas. dollar gaining ground this morning. asian stocks mostly lower, japan leading the decline while the yen is extending gains below 108. 225, a the nikkei company has filed for bankruptcy. fujifilm dropping 12% as japan
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is set to try and antiviral drug. eoul,t the kospi -- in s the cost be losing. in sydney a bright spot -- in eoul, kospi losing. in sydney a bright spot with the aussie rising. early in the asia center the as aian loonie falling sub-$20 oil becomes a reality. and credit rating downgrades underway for the g7 and em space with the round hitting an all-time low by moody's. after a easing downgrade by the account friday. -- by the u.k. friday. >> as governments continue to grapple with the global impacts of the coronavirus, wto director
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general spoke to international and sing international bodies are doing their part to do with the disruption. he spoke to bloomberg from geneva. how long the crisis lasts. very much need to be adjusted if you are looking at along. of disruption. that hopefully will not be the case. in china things are beginning to pick up. asia, thatuntries in could be the situation as well. if you do not have a long-term disruption of supply chain, you could be in a position to recompose them and get back on track. but that is like i said, we do not have control of that. depends how long the crisis will last. the director general, there's been a crisis of confidence in multi-lot --
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director general, has there been a crisis of confidence in multilateral organizations? not think the questions have anything to do with that. it balances our inability to coordinate at the government levels. it is not international organizations. -- i do not think the crisis has anything to do with that. i think the crisis is about our inability to coordinate at the government level. it is not the international organizations. on the contrary, international organizations are being as supportive as possible. i frank lee do not think we are seeing any of the -- i frankly do not think we are seeing any of the facts like right now. for example the disruption of the global supply chains. or the downturn of the economy. it has nothing to do with
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protectionism or isolationism. at has nothing to do with that. it has to do with the fact that the economy completely shut down. you have a demand shock. that is what it is. down at the going level it is going down now because people are being protectionist. generalwas the director of the wto. let's stay on supply chains. greatg us to discuss is happy with us. we are starting to see -- great to have you with us. here in australia we are seeing new measures on increased scrutiny when it comes to foreign investment. is there a concern that with the closure of borders, physical as well as relating to trade, that we had already started tilting before the coronavirus outbreak, test started building before the that we arehs --
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seeing this turn from a crisis of multilateral trade or globalization? covid-19 outbreak continues to disrupt global supply chains with real consequences for businesses and consumers and the global economy. while this started out as a supply-side issue with upstream disruption, with many industries, like the shut out of china and disruption of tier one and tier two suppliers. this is quickly turning into a demand-side shock. we are seeing consumers who are stockpiling and panic buying, which is creating some spiking in demand as well as a shift it to different purchases. the shut downto of borders, there has been a lot
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spoken about in the press. transfer oft individuals in passenger traffic. the supply of goods and ability to move goods from a global supply and trade point of view becomes a fundamental backbone. that infrastructure very much exists. there may be pockets of disruption. but companies are putting the right measures in place, most companies i am speaking with, to mitigate this. from demandstion and supply is in supporting that. >> i want to focus on health care. that is your area of specialty. has a surprise you, the problems that have almost been universal and hospitals and health care professionals being able to access protective gear? thehere is no question foremost priority, from a health point of view but also from a
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supply chain point of view, is to ensure the ability of radical supplies, medical devices, buccal products, protection equipment, masks, etc., which are critically necessary to provide care for people who are currently infected and are likely going to be infected over the coming weeks and months to come. based on predictions we are seeing for the number of infections here in the u.s. and globally, there needs to be a wholesale supply chain ramp up. to make sure that we have tests in place and the equipping exists in order to be able to do it. it has been fashionable for medical professionals to talk about flattening the curve, moving production down from a supply chain professional point of view it is equally critical. we need to think about smoothing out production, making sure there is the right level of
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support and supply. to make sure the spike of demand that will exist in hospitals for key ventilators, the ability to provide ppe as well as the tests, exists, to be able to manage and support that. >> what are the long-term impacts of this? mightinking a company, it be more expensive to manufacture their products in america but it helps protect against some of the downside risk and unknowns we have seen pop up when your manufacturing plant shuts down in china. what are some long-term changes you think could become a reality? >> that is an interesting perspective to think about, what are the ramifications that start to fall out from this? particulate from a supply chain but also on a global basis. -- particularly from a supply chain but also on a global asis.
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-- global basis. supply chains were designed to optimize for cost competitiveness. this pandemic is underpinning that need for companies to reorient their designed to be more risk competitive. change wee overall see. how that starts to manifest and the shape it starts to take will be interesting. who arecompanies investing in technology, leaders we have been speaking to around adapting their ability to be able to secure resilience for, for instance, finding alternative sources of supply. redundant sources of supply. that crates more costs but also smooths that out. -- that creates more costs but also smooths supply. additionally there are changes
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that will never go back. this dynamic around how employees are interacting in a work from home environment very well will require new ways of working and governing and may be to stay for some time. consumer demand as people experience shortages in different in ways -- in a differ way. or fulfilling supply through e channels that worth your march additional retail. there are a lot of different spikes -- channels that were through traditional tell. spikes and ongoing changes we will to adapt as professionals for some time to come. kearney, thanker you. want to bring an update on some moves we are seeing in the markets. shares of softbank falling as much as 10% at one point after one of the companies they back, a satellite operator, oneweb, filed for bankruptcy. this is one of the first
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the lowest since 2002. bloomberg su keenan joins us with the latest traders are concerned about this being unprecedented territory. what are they saying about a $19 handle on crude? >> the concern is we could go lower from here. this is a pivotal week. we are seeing an unprecedented 1-2 punch, a complete collapse in the mound as you have billions of people around the world literally shut in. -- collapse in demand. you have planes grounded, complete lack of demand. and then midweek we have the expiration of that-- collapse at between opec and its allies, opec plus, to limit output. we are preparing for a price war between russia and saudi arabia, who have both indicated all bets are off and they will be producing possibly at full tilt. we look at brent crude being
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traded in london. as mentioned it fell down 7.5% in the first minutes of trading. it has come off its low. but that is a significant decline on top of friday's seat declined. if we look at new york -- friday steep decline. if we look at new york traded west texas intermediate we had a similar decline after the start of electronic trading when it dipped below 20 which it is not seen in a long time. traders are saying be prepared, this could be the worst orderly decline in 30 years. for west texas intermediate. we are seeing an oversupply, there is another question. where to store all the excess crude? particular concern traders say they have not had to deal with before. so you have the just sticks causing the market to seize up. inside io -- the logistics
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causing the market to seize up. in saudi arabia some not wanting to load oil onto tankers because there's no one to take it. in the u.s. we are seeing rags shut down in the permian basement in west texas and mexico. -- oil rigs shut down. one company setting two thirds of all rigs in north america. and we are seeing the case of rigs being shot at double what we saw last week which was extreme. >> su keenan in york. let's get you the first word headlines this hour. the prime minister of singapore is painting a grim picture of the economic effects of the virus. aviation and tourism are virtually dead in the city state. disruptions to global supply chains are having a direct impact on exports. cases bringing the total to 850. >> indonesia is preparing to
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current -- to quarantine 30 million people as crown of our steps continue to rise. deli movement is already restricted. a decision on a full account is expected monday. infections in jakarta account for half the national total with 114 deaths, the highest in southeast asia. they want to prevent an exodus of people leaving the city. the philippines support the effects ofcombat the coronavirus. much is being done but more can be agreed upon if necessary. debt from the treasury being brought under a three-month purchase agreement renewable for another three months. coronavirus to the consumer demand has been negative. on the consumer
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sector in asia, a bain & co. analyst join us from asia. a huge change in demand as people are hoarding. other other positively as seen in the retail space? partner melanie sanders from melbourne. -- bain and company partner. we are seeing a huge surge in demand as people are hoarding, stockpile buying. other other positives we are seeing in the retail space? >> it is a mixed picture. of seeing ackdrop lot of organizations stand down large workforces. there are some trends of consumption patterns we are seeing. one is the one you mentioned, stockpiling panic buying as people rush to stock up on deli essentials -- on daily essentials. takee also seeing people
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on a range of buying patterns online for social distancing. and as people have adjusted to working from home, schooling from home, living from home, there has been a range of different categories we have seen take off in sales momentum. office supplies, educational supplies, indoor sorting equipment, solo sporting equipment, home-improvement. a range of categories that people are starting to buy. on the other things we are seeing more luxury and discretionary categories, from chocolate to luxury purchases declined significantly. how likely is it that once we get to the other end of this that consumer buying behavior is likely to change permanently?
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>> it is hard to know. place is like china where we would say they are way ahead of us in terms of adjusting to a new coronavirus normal. it is unclear. we do expect we have seen an increase in the adoption of online. i expect we will see that sustain, post cover 19 situation. - covid.eing-- post we are seeing the substitute away from cash to digital payment as retailers prefer to use that. fromve seen a move away consumer discretionary categories to consumer staples. is that willee probably sustain after we start to see social distancing measures ease. so we will expect to see retail
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services, beauty services, going out and dining, those cabarets take off again. categories take off again and some suppressed demand around scratch neri. consumer trance we have stashed around discretionary. abateect to see this while hassles are under distress but also as social values have evolved a little bit during this coronavirus. . long-term impacts you mentioned. if i'm a company and provided online services and some brick and mortar, if this has increased the adoption of the consumer to go online. has this accelerated or solidify the process were companies can a longer just be brick and mortar? you have to have an online presence and have it more so then retail physical presence? >> i certainly think it has
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raised the stakes. absolutely. you will see a lot of omni-channel bricks and mortar retailers rushing hard to make sure their online presence, their online capability, is robust. those that were more prepared are feeling more comfortable at the moment. we are also seeing consumer brands rush to get onto marketplaces where we work with a number of marketplaces around the world. us a lotts are telling of activity of brands now trying to find a new route to market even the bricks and mortar is troubled. >> thank you. partnerand company melanie sandals from melbourne. hong kong's government will introduce a second round of assistance for this is his taking hit from the coronavirus. a preview of what else to watch as markets open in hong kong and mainland china. this is bloomberg. ♪
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>> u.s. futures tending to rollover a second day after a drop of 1.5%. we turn it over to sophie kamaruddin to see how it is affecting asian markets may online. >> take a look at asian stocks, heading lower. the aipac index, the end of the worst quarter for global shares since 2008. looking at sharp decliners in the benchmarks in tokyo, toyobo and stock -- toyota and softbank. softbank earlier by as much as 10% as a portfolio company oneweb filed for bankruptcy and toyota under pressure as it closes plans. plus the carmaker is said to be taking a billion-dollar credit
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line from two japanese banks. among the stock data in asia we signingmonwealth bank -- the carmaker said be seeking a nine by dollar credit line from two japanese banks. among the stock daters in bank we have commonwealth bank climbing with aussie lenders. outceo says cba can help for long time before tapping capital markets even as it faces higher loan losses in the near term. fujifilm shares rising 12% with japan said to try out its antiviral drug for coronavirus. let's check in on currencies. a major forex. south africa's rand leading the drag there, this after moody's downgrade countries credit rating to junk on friday. the mexican peso extending losses in the wake of its downgrade we saw last week.
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and the south korean won extending its decline .8% against the greenback. you have sterling under pressure in the asian session. this after fitch's move to downgrade the u.k. credit rating on its fiscal imbalances. the japanese yen edging higher, trading stronger, below 108 yet again. this as we see risk aversion and caution in global markets. kamaruddin in hong kong. let's get a quick check of the this is flash headlines. london'sof one of famous hotels has fetched less than expected. the ritz is changing hands for less than $1 billion. one of its former owners having threatened legal action if the price were so low. the ritz belonged to that reclusive billionaires bar and the sale has been mired in family squabbling with the heirs compete for control. -- barclay. >> chinese electric vehicle
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an attempt to diverse by revenue sources as demand for cars stalls. the warren buffett act company sells compete cars but will also offer competitors the batteries, powertrains and lights. -- sells complete cars. it has been china's leading maker of alternative energy vehicles for six years. ♪ has signedocean wide a framework agreement to sell its san francisco property project for over $1 billion. mainland private equity firm honey capital will take over after an earlier dealt with another buyer was terminated. whichean land center plans to house san francisco's second-highest office tower has been idle for months. ocean wide will book a loss of $75 million on the sale. let's get china open a look at markets trading so far monday morning as we set up for another week of an inevitable
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volatility. the nikkei seeing downside of four. the kospi trading lower. in australia we see upside of 1.5 -- 1.25%. we see a stimulus to counter economic him packs of the virus. new zealand seeing negative sentiment. taylor: will have more market coverage ahead. plus we will speak with fidelity's and ubs. this is bloomberg. ♪
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