weeks. so yes, in terms of valuation, this is not where you find value, but you can find it within the sector, some with more discretionary exposure. consumer exposure has been sold off far more and that is where you would potentially find your opportunity but you have to take a longer term view because those businesses, you don't buy for one quarter earnings. you buy for five years and that is where you find attractive investment opportunities. taylor: portfolio manager jun bei liu, thanks for joining. we will have plenty more market >> very good morning. analysis ahead because we will be joined by foundation asset i am haidi stroud-watts in sydney. injapan and south korea open management cio at 9:30 hong kong time and a little after that, we will to morgan stanley's an hour. i am taylor riggs in new york. welcome to daybreak asia. managing director. this is bloomberg. ♪ set to track are wall street higher amid new hopes about the virus that president trump warned that the u.s. faces a challenging month ahead and a challenge for japan. there is concern that any rise

in infections or deaths could mean the tokyo economy could go in reverse. there is cautious optimism in europe. spain and italy reported a decline in infection rates as people are told to stay-at-home over the easter break. haidi: we are getting breaking news out of south korea. the latest reading of the impact of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic having on this explosive economy. of threetting a plunge point 8% when it comes to industrial production. that is actually better than the survey. we were expecting a contraction to the tune of four point 5% but 3.8 percent contraction, worse than a contraction we saw in the month of january. when it comes to the year on year number, 11.4% gained. a lot better than the 3.4% that

was surveyed and bouncing back well and truly from a contraction of 2.4 percent. seasonality issues will also be at play but we are expecting to it continued disruption when comes to supply chains, manufacturing, and overall industrial productivity and activity in korea as a result of this global pandemic and the impact on trade and demand. let's get straight to sophie kamaruddin in sydney. we have the 7% rally. are we seeing the continuation of the optimism today? sophie: we are seeing the relief rally fall. this after the best session for the benchmark. they unleashed record stimulus to support an economy. indicative of that downbeat mood. heads up. merge in australia shares suspended after asking the government for an $863 million loan. in wellington, keeping an eye on air new zealand shares, which are edging lower. taylor: let's get a quick check

of some of the latest business flash headlines. steep drop in revenue. version australia is the latest carrier to appeal for help amid the coronavirus, asking the the nzx 50 adding to monday's government for 863 million u.s. gains. dollars to help it navigate the the worst quarter for the crisis. last week, they furloughed 80% currency since 2014. corporateid hold it of its 10,000 strong workforce, saying it will only maintain a bond buying operation but no essential flight. bids were made. they sketch out a stimulus rival qantas says any government package which could see an money should go to the aviation additional ¥16 trillion. industry as a whole rather than to individual carriers. the chinese owner of volvo nikkei futures in chicago are nudging higher. we have seen the yen peaked back reported full-year earnings that above 108. missed estimates and predicted flipping the board to check in further challenges ahead as the coronavirus saps demand. on commodities, gold holding a two day drop. 35%llionaire posted a year low.m an 18 wti back above 20. decline in net income to just over $1 billion for 2019. sentiment does remain bearish as car sales were down by as much demand collapses. treasury futures are slipping as 96% and he is expecting tough e minis little times ahead for its global business. macy's is the sector furloughed the majority of its 130,000 changed. on that front, we will be watching fujifilm in tokyo as it

workers, starting april 1, all is set to start critical trials in response to the coronavirus outbreak. the iconic department store shut to -- the coronavirus. all of its outlooks two weeks ago -- outlets two weeks ago. taylor: more than one million and the workers will not be paid but will receive health benefits. americans have been tested for a small staff will stay on to the coronavirus. travel restrictions will remain help distribution and call beyond expiration dates and international law down would be centers. i want to get a check in on the unlikely. our daybreak coanchor, shery markets because as we know, ahn, joins us now. asian markets have opened up in some areas and going over in cases topping 777,000. australia, we did have the best gains yesterday on record, 7% gain, so those gains are 164,000 of those recovered. what do we know about the latest in the u.s.? shery: u.s. numbers look really extending. today, up 1.8% or so and that grim. follows the lead you have gotten in the u.s. in monday's trading global numbers for americans is at least 156,309 as of monday session where we were higher in about four of the last five afternoon. sessions, so you can see within deaths, 2990 to the futures market, trying to hold onto some small gains here overnight as we wait for the seven and counting. president trump now saying there opening bell tomorrow. are challenging times ahead for oil of course it does continue the next 30 days. to extend its massive losses ventilators are being sent to michigan, new jersey, and l.a. here as we were down to one of

the lowest points going back since 2002, really struggling to ford will produce 50,000 ventilators in the next 100 hang onto $20 a barrel or so. days. coming up next, an exclusive this is a key issue when it with james bullard. comes to really dealing with the medical services and the search he says the government's fiscal urge oft -- s support package has enough tools to help the u.s. economy get through this crisis. this is bloomberg. coronavirus patients in the ♪ u.s.. they are adjusting to the surge in patients. we have 66,000 confirmed cases of coronavirus. when it comes to stay-at-home order's, we are seeing those being expanded across the country. we are seeing maryland, virginia, extending their's to june 10. here's what president trump has to say about a potential national lockdown. pres. trump: we have talked about it. you know, obviously, there are some parts of the country that are in far deeper trouble than others. if we do that, we will let you know, but it is pretty unlikely

at this time. the question right now of course is will this be the end of it? while summer be the end of the coronavirus infections and the ofge of deaths -- the surge deaths we are seeing across the country? they anticipate the virus will strike again but the situation will not be the same. president trump saying the virus could strike again in the fall and that the united states would be prepared. in the meantime, as more and more states go into their own lockdowns despite president trump saying there will not be a national lockdown at this point, they are really starting to crack down on americans who fail at social distancing. shery: we have all seen those viral pictures of people congregating where they should not, where they are not really social distancing. they are starting to crack down. new jersey has more than 2000

people facing criminal charges. new jersey has faced more than 16,000 confirmed cases already. new york city's mayor, de blasio, announced there could be a $500 fine if people fail to social distance. we have seen charges filed pastor a florida because he held an important service in his church. given the standstill the u.s. economy is facing, it is no wonder that we are seeing more and more fallout from this locked down on the economy, on businesses. large retailers are already letting workers go. gap, macy's, being some of those big companies that are furloughing their u.s. workers. shery ahn, our coanchor >> welcome back to bloomberg daybreak: europe. we are waiting for japan jobless rate numbers that come out. in new york. the world health organization says there are signs that italy we know that the job applicant 145, is coming out at and spain may be nearing peak infection rates although it

repeats that reducing the number below the survey of 147. we are awaiting the jobless rate of new cases requires proactive measures. let's get to rishaad salamat up notfor february, which i am in hong kong for more on this. yet seeing, but again, we do know that the job applicant what is the situation? ratio is coming in at 145, down havingnd italy recently from a survey estimate of 147, their deadliest days. there is already a bit of down from the previous month of optimism that the infection rates may be stabilizing. asking: the who is 149. we will continue to wait for this japan jobless numbers and the jobless rate to come out, of itself a question. have we really seen the fruits course, when that happens. of this lockdown which started when it does, we will make sure to bring it to you. off in several european in the meantime, we did get some countries over the last couple breaking news i wanted to bring of weeks or thereabouts? across and that is new zealand has been extended the state of are those efforts bearing fruit? national emergencies. italy reported the smallest this is another seven days. number of new cases in almost this has continued to expand two weeks. they are taking a bit of heart from that. italy and spain are perhaps from the coronavirus outbreak, so you have a new zealand -- new approaching a peak. they are cautioning this will not go down by itself and zealand extending the national emergency another seven days. countries need to focus on the we are getting the jobless strategies and to really at the numbers coming in from japan so 2.4%e getting february at moment double down if needed and spain certainly announcing new for japan and that is in line restrictions on its population with market expectations, which

over the course of the weekend. as we know, italy has the is coming in at 2.4%. we should note this is being highest death toll from the reported by dow jones so virus, more than 11,000 fatalities, something like bloomberg is working to independently confirm these 102,000 confirmed cases. numbers, but according to dow jones, it does look that japan's this has political dimensions as well. february jobless rate coming in the prime minister, giuseppe at 2.4%, in line with market hise, is fighting to hold expectations, right in line there. society together. we have had all these pushes and president, james ever taking place in italy bullard, says the u.s. can well afford adding trillions of dollars in debt to provide since italy was created and we necessary fiscal support for the have the more poverty-stricken countries coronavirus related andh and the stresses shutdowns. he spoke exclusively to bloomberg's michael mckee earlier. strains. i did want to see pandemic holding the country together has become a top priority. police deployed on the streets of the sicilian capital. ngsre are reports that gai relief. i would not call it stimulus. i would call it pandemic relief. are using social media. what i interpret the program as trying to do is to incomes and under the strains businesses as we work our way of this pandemic. what we do have is doubling through this investment in our down, as i mentioned, in spain. national health over the next couple of months here.

second highest level of fatalities. spain battling this outbreak. on unemployment, we do have a we have the prime minister announcing plans over the blog on this. weekend for tighter if you read the blog carefully, restrictions. ordering those who work in nonessential services to you will see there is a way to bound the unemployment rate stay-at-home during the easter period. when does it all end? between 10% and the upper bound that is something the who is is 42%, but environment, and suggesting there is some light at the end of the tunnel. taylor: the yell group president was saying a lot of these financial strains could put the what is going to happen is that euro bloc in danger itself. what did he say? those workers, some of those rishaad: obviously, we are workers are going to have to seek relief so they can pay their bills through this period, talking about the euro finance ministers who released a letter so we are expecting the unemployment rate to spike but from the euro group president, let's call that pandemic relief marco centeno, cautioning the and then they can pay their bills once the virus goes away. budgetary costs of this pandemic we will be able to return to will be big and commensurate normal. hopefully, if this all works with the colossal shock of the smoothly and there is a lot in outbreak here as well. the legislation as well, we will be able to come out on the other end and get the economy rocking how do countries actually deal with the higher debt burden again. >> wednesday is april 1. which will result in battling this pandemic?

how do they pay for it all here mortgage payments are due, as well? utilities. bondsea is to have corona could we have a problem that people cannot pay their bills on wednesday? sense, of course, we are and that has divided the european union quite deeply here as well. what happens immediately after this crisis? in a crisis situation, but my sense is that everyone really nine member states are calling for joint debt issuance, running understands what is going on here now because obviously, it against angela merkel, the has been a topic, not just in german chancellor, categorically against this idea. the u.s., but around the world. i think people pretty much we are. these stresses and strains that the relief is against the backdrop of the economy a huge shock. for instance, we have german supposed to enable people to pay their bills as best they can. economic experts suggesting the some delays and german economy will shrink by something like 2.8% this year, even if they do allow the things. you would expect that in a crisis situation. economy to recover through the by and large, there are plenty summer period, so there we go. of resources in this fiscal package to handle what we are the worst recession for the global financial crisis is a given for many of these going to go through here. >> the main street lending countries. just how bad will it get is a program you guys have announced question that many are asking. is in the package. guys. how is that going to look and are still trying to when does that start?

>> that is in the design phase work out the gravity. rishaad salamat it in hong kong. right now. let's get you a look at the i think from a firm's point of movers we are watching in the asxie session as we see the view, there are two ways to handle the crisis. with gains of just over 1%, extending the relief rally. one would be the traditional way, which would be to shut down ofare watching shares temporarily and send the workers over to the pandemic relief or wesfarmers, australia's biggest employer. unemployment lien, and a lot of stake in one of the that is going to occur. that has already occurred. leading supermarkets. we had the claims number last week. and that's ok. the total proceeds just over $1 billion aussie. the unemployment insurance jeffrey's saying they are benefit is beefed up, so they starting to see value elsewhere, are going to get closer to 100% building a war chest to pursue or maybe 100% of what they would an acquisition after the completion of the sale. have gotten had they just that is according to jeffries. continued to work so i think we will continue to watch those that part -- that is one way to stocks, but there's trading in go. if the firm goes in that direction, they might lose sydney. connection with their workers so still ahead, an exclusive another direction to go is to go interview with james bullard, canis now saying the u.s. to the small business administration, get a loan which afford adding trillions of

dollars of debt and it will not is ultimately forgivable if you meet certain conditions, mainly hamper future economic growth. that you keep your payroll more taylor: up next, tribeca or less intact. investment partners say equities round, you might could still fall further. be able to retain your workers, and then when the start occurs the heavy selling pressure is later, you will be able to have unlikely to be repeated. the same workers and you do not her market outlook is coming up. this is bloomberg. have to go hir all over ♪ again.- hire all over if companies decide to go that way, then we will see lower unemployment and more uptake on the loan side. haidi: that was james bullard, st. louis fed president. asian markets are trading. they are tracking their u.s. counterparts higher. what are you watching? sophie: australia stepped up stimulus. the asx 200 extending the rally that we saw on monday, the best session ever with a 7% jump.

we are seeing that extended by 3% this morning for the asx 200 while the aussie dollar is slightly under pressure but holding a seven-day gain while we see the yield curve bears steepening. it does bring total stimulus thus far to 64% of gdp. morgan stanley noting it does not avoid near-term recession but does allow some businesses and workers to enter a recovery down under. we are seeing nikkei futures in singapore open and higher as we digest the latest jobless numbers. the unemployment rate for japan came in at two point percent, as expected. .e are seeing the yen weakened markets assess prospect for more fiscal support. the small business loan program, that will be expanded to ¥40 trillion. in asia trading, u.s. futures paring gains. flipping the board, checking on sterling this morning, under

pressure, falling as much as .5%. fluctuations in the pound have made hedge very tricky indeed. after new zealand extended the state of national emergency by another seven days, the kiwi dollar has moved back below 60, hovering around that level but the nzx 50 remaining on the front foot, adding 3.3% this morning. sophie kamaruddin. how low can oil go? that is the key question facing traders. taylor: -- ritika: you are more, and i was watching "daybreak asia." shocked when wti had the 20 have i am ritika gupta. australia is heading for its briefly.vel deepest recession as measures to oil is selling for $10. what can you tell me? curb the coronavirus push business and consumers to the on the physical edge. bloomberg economics says gdp will decline by 10% in the first market in north america and it has to do with the facts that a three quarters of this year before showing a lot of these brokers received visible oil and are just happy gradual recovery. the government is pledging -- to to -- physical oil are happy to safeguard jobs. get rid of it at fire sale prices.

the tokyo economy might stall if one traded in canada, offloading at three dollars and change. there are several new virus let's go right to the charts to infections reported. japan has remained relatively explain what is going on. if you look at brent crude just free of the pandemic but there is concern that any rising cases over the last 30 days, you can see it has been taking a pounding on friday down bed, and will prompt authorities to order a lockdown and the closure of shops and restaurants. again, in the monday session, it a full shutdown in tokyo will be was down as much as 13% before the equivalent of freezing an closing down 9%. as mentioned, that is the lowest economy the size of canada's. price we have seen really since china is set to start publishing data on how many people are 2002 and then you look at west infected with the used intermediate, widely coronavirus without showing symptoms. local authorities are to track in north america. west texas intermediate dipped below 19, managed to close above and treat cases of so-called 20 and now that we are seeing asymptomatic infection. electronic trading open again, it follows domestic and international criticism of it has been off as much as 1% so beijing's figures on the a brief rebound that may have to outbreak. do with the farming of the local media say the data will be released soon. equity markets, but we also have than $10lling for less a lot of different developments. across key north american homes as the virus hit demand and first of all, inventory data out. more importantly, we have got leaves crude with nowhere to go. the u.s. concern now about the pandemic has sent futures to their lowest in 18 years with price war between russia and supplies backing up throughout saudi arabia. the distribution system.

we know that president trump was on the phone with president saudi arabia remains locked in a price war with russia and aramco putin, concerned about the volatility of the markets, and is housing huge supplies in we have learned since that call egypt as it prepares to flood that the u.s. energy secretary the market. global news, 24 hours a day, on will be on a call with his air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in counterpart in russia to discuss more than 120 countries. how to manage the volatility in i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. the prices. as president trump earlier said, haidi. he was not concerned about oil thank you. because it was a break for consumers, a tax break, he said. asian stocks look set to extend we are hearing he has changed his tune a bit and he does not the rally on wall street. australia are already joining want the energy market here in the u.s. to really fall apart, in. appetizing fore so he is actively trying to prop the coronavirus. our next guest says that potentially, that means some it up. i should point out that one of market stability for a few the big veterans in oil, with a weeks. joining us now is the tribeca portfolio manager, jim bailey. hedge fund, he talks about the i want to throw up this chart to prices continuing to grind lower as we see runs cut globally. get the conversation going. it is the end of the quarter and here in the u.s., they are being what a wild quarter it has been. cut in half after being cut in just taking a look at asset classes. half just a week ago. it is pretty easy to pick out all acrosseing shot

where wti crude sits on that chart, but treasuries have done north america. next 48 hours can be very well. , buthas done well as well really critical for prices. talk about inventory and an etf everything else, not as much. we have kind of bottomed out. that may pose a risk to some of these investors. su: the inventory data normally is that only for the next few weeks? how do you invest if you know comes out wednesday. we get a private report that more downside is likely to come? comes out later tuesday that jim: we talk about what a wild often is an early indication but month. traders are talking about a we have moved from the technical buildup of 4 million barrels in bear market into a technical bull market within the last few excess of original estimates. weeks. they are expecting a staggering certainly, we are seeing increase. and the big concern now, as bottoming in the equity market. mentioned yesterday, where do you put the oil? we have an incredible amount of opportunity in terms of good we are seeing traders getting quality companies at a involved, interested in discounted price. this, thek at arbitrage, where they are able to make money. infectious state, and most of we are seeing a rush between the economy are still in many major oil companies to get lockdown across the country, so supertankers to load oil off the gulf of mexico, which is a key it is hard to see equity rally area in the u.s., and take it to away on the basis that the asia, which up until now has infection rate is still getting worse and the employment numbers been the number one consumer for

oil. then it is to the etf check out continue to track lower, so on this basis, you can say that the and oil fund. we have seen almost $2 billion equity, although it has found a bottom, it might go up and down pour into that fund, 1.8 billion and a little bit directionless to be exact. for the next few weeks. need to take, you a lot of investors use this as a way to ride short-term price at least three to six months reversals but if they stay in view. too long, a lot of industry you know good quality business, analysts are warning they could with good balance sheets, will really get hurt because of what is called contango where you thrive in this environment. the government has stepped in. have a difference between central banks stepped in with a short-term and long-term prices lot of stimulus as soon as we and you have a decline in get the early sign of news that profitability that can be a things are getting better and people can get out and spend for losing trade for many. back to you. the stimulus. you so much for those share prices will recover very quickly, so it is almost a that. su keenan from new york with the case of just buying a good latest on this destruction of qualit and wait for the demand and the crude markets. recovery. coming up next, the japanese severe is facing haidi: what are you referring at this point? are you going to stay overweight consequences. circumstances because of the when it comes to health care? ongoing coronavirus pandemic. he will break down the latest we are trying to work out what a retail sales numbers and the post-pandemic economy and industrial production data, up spending trends and behaviors next. this is bloomberg.

♪ really look like. will there be a greater focus and investment across health care sectors? -- across health care sectors? jun: absolutely. we have long held overweight. it is structurally growing and also very defensive so it has thoseood combination of characteristics. with the post-pandemic world, there will be structurally higher demand for amount of those services, for ventilators, testing facilities, and demand for health services. we think the businesses will do well. it is important to continue the overweight position in this space but of course, they have done very well. there's also other companies that have been sold off. once we move past the pandemic, some of those really cheap businesses or good quality businesses will potentially do a lot better than what the health care businesses will deliver on the six month. taylor: your comments echo

similar comments where goldman sachs is looking at companies with reasonable payout ratios, where a healthy balance sheet can have a high dividend yield even as companies cut dividends. where specifically are you finding those companies with reasonable payout ratios with high dividend yields? australiancross the market, for example. a high dividend yield use your resources, material companies, and then across and financials. ,f course, on these two bases the economy continues to we can because of the shutdown. the resources businesses with ritika: this is "daybreak asia." very attractive. they have performed quite well relative to the financials so i am ritika gupta with the first these are where you will find the yields but for me, i have a word headlines. president trump says the u.s. should see infection rates strong preference for quality peaked but the country faces a businesses that deliver structural growth. challenging month ahead. i tend to use those

opportunities to find companies more states impose restrictions that will deliver significant as virginia and maryland are growth at a very discounted issuing lockdowns. new york city said the rate of price, and many of them have u.k. -- new cases is slowing. been sold off significantly, and that is where i find my people have been infected with opportunities. are you being 37,000 fatalities. opportunistic on tech right now? the world health organization see is a coronavirus infection rate in europe is starting to do you think valuations have come down enough for that to be ease off as spain and italy are attractive? jun: i have always liked tech. reporting a similar rise in cases. madrid is ordering people to if you look at the performance of tech adjusted for the stay-at-home over easter while rome is extending its own lockdowns or early april. the who continues to urge countries to step up isolation efforts to halt the spread of the virus. >> everyone has talked about the curve up and everyone talks about the stabilization. the question is, how do you go down? and going down is not just about all and let go. to get down from the numbers, not just stabilize, requires a redoubling of public health efforts to push down. ritika: millions of migrant

workers continue to leave towns and cities in india as the virus lockdown ravages the economy. the benchmark stock index fell on monday and is poised to see its worst quarter ever amid fears the government's response may not be enough to -- three months decline of more than 30%, surpassing the for june, 1992. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am ritika gupta. this is bloomberg. taylor? taylor: japan's jobless rate in february came in at 2.4%. we are still awaiting industrial production and retail numbers in just a few minutes. here to provide an outlook is just the loop, economist for -- the jobless rate numbers, that is a backwards looking view. what data point are you looking at to give you insight on the forward view of how damaging

this coronavirus could be on the japanese economy? >> yes, looking at the jobless numbers, i think -- we do expect to see more weakness in jobless numbers in the months ahead because just as we saw the massive increase in jobless claims in the u.s., the labor market situation in japan is concerning. retail, transportation, they are facing a higher risk of temporary or permanent layoffs. sales forturn industrial production numbers, we expect to see more contraction. we expect to see a drop of 3% in the month of february and also for industrial production by about 4% year on year in february as well. taylor: talk to me about those retail sales. here in the u.s., we are having a heavy debate about the retail sales in the shift now, and that has been a total death of some

of these brick-and-mortar companies who do not have an online presence. what does that mean for your world in japan as you take a look at retail sales and the shift to e-commerce? jessie: looking at the retail sales in japan, the retail sales face a sharp contraction after the hike last year. declininges have been since the sales tax was hiked from 8% to 10% in october, and also given the current coronavirus situation, consumers are cautious about spending, so we think retail sales are likely to face more pressure down the road, and yes, when we do see a trend that retail sales are shifting to online, the digital sales, that will help to support some of the declining sales due to the offline channels. how damaging ultimately is the postponement of the

olympic games? in most other economies, we are talking about demand delayed is not a man that will be replaced at the end of all this, right? demandcause chinese -- delayed is not demand that will be replaced at the end of all this. a unique situation. jessie: yes, i think while in the at the delay olympics is much better than a cancellation, just before the coronavirus hit the economy, the bringcs was on hold to more to japan's economy and helping to increase consumption and tourism revenues. however, looking at the current situation, even if we proceed ahead with the olympics, it will not probably bring the influx of tourists we hope to see. we think a delay of the olympics

is much better than a cancellation. we see anuld immediate reduction in the sales tax? jessie: we figure that will be politically very difficult because hiking of sales taxes is an important step to achieve the long-term goal of restoring fiscal balance. if we cut immediately and then want to raise it again, that will be very difficult and practically very difficult as well. taylor: we want to wait for some of those numbers to come out. retail sales and industrial production. within retail sales, month over month, a survey is calling for a drop of 1.7% on a year-over-year basis. a drop of 1.5%. we have numbers coming out on industrial production. month over month, getting .4%, better than the survey, which was flat, but year-over-year,

you are seeing a drop of 4.7%. that is an improvement from the survey estimate of a drop of 4.8 percent. both of those numbers are in decline from the prior months and the prior year, so you are seeing a few numbers come in better than the survey. within the retail sales month over month, you are seeing a gain of .6%, better than the survey estimate, which was looking for a drop of 1.7 percent, and year-over-year, you are also seeing an improvement in retail sales of 1.7%, better than a drop here of about 1.5% so let me try to come to you for some initial reaction. we have given you a very cool 10 seconds or so to sift through these numbers. overall, the key takeaway is it does look a little bit better than some of the survey estimates. does that give you any hope that they are doing a better job of managing through this than perhaps many economists had estimated?

jessie: well, we have to bear in mind that this number is for the month of february, before japan imposed more stringent containment measures such as school closure and quarantine measures, so we do expect to see more data points in the months ahead, and looking at industrial production, it has been under pressure due to the trade tensions last year. it has been declining for several months, and now, given the coronavirus disrupting the supply chain, we do think that the industrial production is likely to go under pressure further in the months ahead. retail sales, due to the conscious sentiment among consumers and businesses, we think it is probably -- there is probably more weakness to come. what does this mean for wage growth in japan? if we look at the broad

macro picture, lower aggregate demand will fit into the labor market and that is less likely to result in a higher unemployment rate. also given the risk that some of them are facing, the temporary or permanent layoffs, that is weighing on the wage growth as well. thank you so much for anning us, jessie lu, economist at continuum economics, talking about japan. of course, investors will be watching out for other economic data due to drop later, including china's pmi rating. we will have in-depth analysis with barclays. ♪

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taylor: -- almost 5% rise year-over-year. the coronavirus has hurt the chinese economy but the economic fallout on the mainland will be limited. to lender has made efforts dispose of nonperforming assets worth $17 billion last year. i want to check in now on some of the asian markets and talk a lot about australia, which had a 7% gain last year, posting one

of the best gains we have seen. you have seen some of that optimism around the virus, the flattening of that curve filtering through as some of the other new zealand and nikkei futures starting to come online. those are also up 3%, 1.6 percent or so. and that again continues here in the u.s.. futures up slightly again, just another day. coming up on the next hour of daybreak asia, we will preview china's pmi data due out later this morning. the chief china economist joins us. plus hong kong's secretary for commerce and economic development also joins us later. all of that, next. this is bloomberg. ♪

todi: a very good morning

you. asian markets have just opened for trade. taylor: and good evening from new york, i am taylor riggs. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: asia." are set to track higher. president trump warned the u.s. faces a challenging month i had. japan fears and escalation and the infection rate but the economy appears to be standing up well. retail sales beating estimates from last month. numbers oneports people with a virus but no symptoms. haidi: we are just getting breaking news crossing the bloomberg. another grading on the new zealand economy. the new zealand business confidence rating coming through

for the month of march. a negative reading of 63.5. reflecting the current business conditions taking place in new zealand. looking at a pretty higher situation fromre their previous month. in february there was a fall of 20. march, a negative reading of 63.5. the state of emergency has been extended another seven days. allvel for locked down with nonessential business and economic activity at a standstill. let us get straight to the market reaction. >> the japanese open -- stocks diverging. the nikkei 225 adding 0.25%. the jobless rate coming in at 2.4%. the pickup in japanese factory output. that increases likely short-lived.

we are watching a two-year debt option. track equities. prospects for a stimulus picking up. information on the cost be adding more than 1%. the korean wan is also gaining. another supplementary budget is in the works to support households. 7.1 trillion one to help the economic strain due to the outbreak. another indicator of the strain on the economy. hecking in on the antipedes. kiwi assets. heading higher adding 3.25%. the kiwi dollar holding around 60. numbers weearlier saw. -- foret for the first

the worst quarter in some time. and the confidence numbers out of australia not looking great. despite the record stimulus package, the aussie dollar holding study. just checking in on u.s. futures. edging higher. the dollar is holding gains. brent and wti edging higher. wti backup of $20 per barrel. taylor: i just want to get some more information on the markets with marc cranfield joining us from singapore. march madness. currencies,he dollar strength and the funding issues it has put on a lot of the asset classes we have seen particularly emerging-market currencies, how has that easie

ed in recent days? >> i think you will see optimism improving. [indiscernible] part of the dollar strength we -- part of the dollar strength we saw in previous march madness [indiscernible] currencyl, the biggest will have a huge shift. calmer conditions will prevail. although the dollar might not be as strong in april, it will not be equally soft against some of the currencies. we will see a shifting to the big currencies.

the euro. the swiss franc. maybe the yen. most currencies will do slightly better against the dollar. the shift will be towards the big currencies. this typically happens as you come out of a crisis period. wait somell have to time to catch up. we are trying to flatten the infection curve but the yield curve as well. to continue.he rba where is the curve headed? >> we have been looking at the mid-sector of the australian curve. --would not be surprising

[indiscernible] they will be buying a lot of bonds. specifically targeting the yield , 0.25%. what we will see in the coming --ths is the aussie dollar the treasury curve is being influenced by a number of issues. surprisingt be too for the aussie dollar to go to a flatter level. marc cranfield there in singapore. it did not take long at all for japan and the international olympic committee to come up

with a new date for the summer olympic games. less than a week after the games were says -- were postponed because of the outbreak, we have a new date. later, year to the day july, 2021. we will get you more details on that as they come to us. this is bloomberg. ♪ we do have steve engle with the latest on this. steve: yes. more to come. we will try to get steve after this. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: you're watching "daybreak asia." president trump says the u.s. should see infection rates heat in the next two weeks but says

the country faces a challenging months i had. more states imposing restrictions including virginia and maryland. new york city says the rate of new cases is slowing. more than three quarters of a million people around the world have been infected. the world health organization sees signs that the coronavirus infection rate in europe is starting to ease off as spain and italy report slowly rising cases. rome is extending its own lockdown through early april. the who continues to urge people to step up isolation efforts >>. everyone has talked about the curve. everyone talks about the stabilization. the question is, how do you go down? go down -- going down is not just about a lock down and letting go. to get down from the numbers, not just stabilize, requires a

redoubling of public health efforts to push down. >> australia is heading for its steepest recession in 90 years as efforts to curb the coronavirus have pushed the economy to the edge. the government is pledging the equivalent of 80 billion u.s. dollars over six months to save jobs. oil is selling for less than $10 across key north american hubs. the pandemic has sent futures to their lowest in 18 years with supplies backing up throughout the distribution system. saudi arabia remains locked in a price war with russia. and saudi aramco has huge supplies in egypt. as it prepares to flood the market. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries.

this is bloomberg. haidi? we are not just getting on reported coronavirus cases effort fatalities out of china. china reporting 48 additional coronavirus cases for march 30. and one coronavirus death on the same day. are important. china has been struggling an increase in late placing restrictions and the shutdown when it comeitontinues to struga second wave of imported cases. it is a little bit of an increase on the day prior but we are looking at potentially the change in methodology for accounting cases. china is coming under increasing criticism.

let us get some more context. our china correspondent tom mackenzie joins us now from beijing with the latest. what do we know about the pressure that china has come under internationally about how they count the cases? and the pressure to maintain this trajectory of a recovery? tom: there is domestic pressure and international pressure now on china to be more transparent in how it is accounting for the number of cases. crucially, china does not count those that test positive but who are asymptomatic. to the very different likes of singapore, south korea, and japan. they include everyone that tests positive in their official count. they have come under international pressure but domestic as well because we have seen cases reported in certain

in thees not included official daily count. that is raising concern domestically that may be, as it releases some of the pressure to get the economy back on track, will allow these asymptomatic people into the population contributing to the second wave. on monday, there was a meeting chaired by the premier. he called on local officials to trace these cases and treat them and to crucially be transparent and open about how they account for them. there have been reports in china that we will potentially get these when that there are reportsna, it comes down to how and if local officials will implement this.

struggle is getting the economy back into gear while accounting for these asymptomatic cases. they could account for 30% of as cases or maybe as many 43,000 people. it is significant. we expect the change in methodology from china to add transparency. taylor: we are also awaiting the data which will give us another glimpse into the chinese economy and itself. what are we looking for? tom: we expect to see a rebound according to the survey. look at manufacturing pmi for march, 44.8% is the estimate. that has been a contraction below the 50 line but well above the record low we saw in february, 35.7 for manufacturing pmi. nonmanufacturing, we expect to see it pick up as well.

construction. the manufacturing pmi outlook is looking pretty wobbly according to bloomberg economics. you look of the demand picture in the european union and the u.s. where you see lockdowns in place to contain the virus. is demand for chinese goods expected to fall off a cliff. it means manufacturing pmi may start to weaken again. but when it does come out at 9:00 local time, is expected to be an improvement on the february record lows. services could also look week areuse many people here cautious about going out. social distancing remains in place. a lot of people working from home. construction could be relatively strong going forward because there is a focus on expanding infrastructure projects at the local level. those numbers expected at 9:00 local time. haidi: we will be waiting for

that. tom mackenzie, waiting for the china pmi out of beijing. our next guest, let us get her perspective on these chinese pmi numbers and the return of economic activity. ubs chief china economist, dr. tao wang. the first thing is getting people back to work from quarantines. in the past month or so, the government has been working on or removing some of the mobility restrictions and getting people that to work and getting factories open. the data we have been tracking includes property sales and

urban trafficking that has all shown a steady improvement especially in the last few weeks. that point of view, industrial production is probably 80%, 90% act to normal. other activities are back to normal as well. going forward, the new headwinds is the external shock given the global situation. the export orders will still be weaker. cautiouse will be more in their normal consumption behavior. in terms of the other additional acts we have seen how much more do you expect from the pboc? ingenuity. the

they have to have more than other central banks. dr. tao wang: they lowered the repo rates by 20 boys -- by 20 basis points yesterday. considering what other central banks have done, the pboc has still been quite cautious. providing liquidity to the market has really helped with expectations. since then, partly because china things under control and partly because of the recent development of what is going on internationally is very new to them, i think they have been very slow in reacting. is thatimportant thing the fiscal policy in the current environment is more powerful in both helping people get back to

work and reducing the net impact on income and lower employment. and also stimulating growth. as a result, i think china's monetary policy has taken a back step if you will. they do have more room so we do think there is a bit more cut that could come through. and more importantly for china, more liquidity and increased lending support in the coming months. fromr: what can we glean the recovery we are seeing in china folding over to any sort of u.s. recovery as well? i am here in new york so we are eager to see the recovery in china. any implications for here in the u.s.? dr. tao wang: sure. i think the appearance of china and other asian countries like that either you do a

, mobilityckdown restrictions combined with testing and isolation or you do testing aggressively and isolate without having to lockdown. the most important thing is getting the new case under control. in china's case, they locked down first and then tested aggressively. if it was positive or suspicious of being positive, they were isolated or quarantined. after that, it is easier to get activities to reopen again but it takes a few weeks. u.s., especially new york, they are putting in place very strict mobility restrictions. within a few weeks, that will hopefully get new cases under control and the economy can get back to normal. of chinabs head

economy, dr. tao wang, thank you. i do want to bring in an alert we are getting on soon communications. they are accused of disclosing user information. this all came out after the new on zoom's reported privacy practices. we are all conferencing in. on zoom being sued on privacy accused of disclosing user information. this is bloomberg. ♪

long fort did not take japan and the international olympic committee to come up with a new start date for the summer olympics less than a week

after the games were officially postponed. tokyo 2020 will be held about a year to the date later. stephen engle is watching developments and this quick speculation or this quick decision, july 2021. japan was pushing for something else? >> there was some speculation that there could be a possible spring start next year. japan wants to get the games going. loseoc does not want to momentum of the olympic movement. it made more sense after the ioc and japanese leaders talked it would be economically feasible as far as the virus as well as logistics. they will do the game exactly a 23, 2021he date, july until august 8. it was originally scheduled this

summer to begin on july 24. athletes who qualified will keep their spots in the game. ticket holders will be able to use them next year. sponsorship rights have been extended. the big question though will be the many japanese domestic partnerships -- will they expire? they spent a record three point $3 billion on domestic partnerships. that is the big question? in the meantime, there is more international criticism without the world health organization has handled the virus outbreak. there has been criticism about its approach to china and the availability of data from china. now, it has to do with taiwan. >> it all had to do with an interview with hong kong's rthk.

he was awkward when asked if the world health organization would consider giving membership to taiwan. it was a little awkward as the line went dead. they feel they have not been truthful. haidi: our chief north asia correspondent, stephen engle in hong kong. much more to come. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: breaking news crossing the bloomberg. china should not set a gdp

target for 2020 according to local media. it would've been placed around 6%. distraction ofe any economic forecasting putting that way out of whack in terms of expectations. lowered interest rates on loans extended since 2015. the pboc is moving into a stronger phase of its countercyclical movements. strong words even that we had that gdp target set every year like clockwork when they had the meeting of the parliamentary session which has also been delayed as a result of the coronavirus related shutdowns. is a legitimate voice within the central bank in china saying they should consider not setting the gdp target this year. let's take a look at how the markets are phasing. , just belowyuan

seven. the latest developments that we got. that it is fiscal year end in japan. the nikkei 225 fluctuating this morning. adding 0.2% at the topics is moving lower. the dollar is stay in firmer on month and demand. addedeven basis points ahead of a two-year debt option. theie bond futures easing earlier drop as the rba and announced plans to buy more long dated that. kiwi dollars swinging back to gains of up 60 but they are having the worst quarter since 2016. new zealand extending the state of emergency. -- the aussie

dollar holding a seven-day gain above 61 as we get more indicators of sluggish household and business confidence. being led higher by samsung. the government indicated economic support would be forthcoming for households. firm isfood delivery one of the most exposed of china's internet companies. the fourth quarter numbers beat the highest estimate. they cannot fully determine how much the pandemic will hurt business this year. for more, we bring in david dai from sanford c bernstein. take a look across the multi-businesses. what worries you the most? what is the most exposure here to the coronavirus? one that is exposed

is [indiscernible] a mixture of businesses. you have to physically go into the hotel or consume in the store. taylor: if the company cannot forecast the hit to revenue this year, how are you analyzing this company given the lack of information you are getting from these companies? david: the company does not want to give very specific guidance given the uncertainty. of good analysis of the company and also we do a lot of underground research. our current understanding is that the food delivery business is recovering pretty well and the hotel business is on track to recover though the pace of

recovery is a lot slower. i am stillar basis, very optimistic especially for the second half of the year. haidi: do you anticipate there will be consumer behavioral changes coming up on the other side of this that will continue in the longer term to benefit delivery names like meituan? david: during a situation like this, what you would expect is on mine take more business from offline. on my in other industries is high. for food delivery last year, on average, every user ordered one meal every two weeks. there is a lot of incremental additional order frequency.

md for other businesses that eituan runs also has increased. a lot of that is going to carry on even after covid-19. how scalable is that part of the service? across every sector, we have seen that diversification is one of the few things these businesses can do well at of the current situation. is that something that the company can do better at? david: good question. scale this is a pure business. ,he only reason it is popular and other delivery companies are at, is because they have

bigger scale and more density than anyone else. the delivery cost is much cheaper than anyone else in the world. lowersult is they charge delivery rates than other companies and they are more profitable than other companies. businessbility of the -- during covid-19, things will work the other way around. , people will9 order more for delivery which will increase the density and tuanr cost and enabling mei to make more profit. delivery, there will be other deliveries like flowers in medicine. david, thank you for

joining us. david dai, senior analyst from hong kong. we will stay with hong kong in terms of the recovery that we are hoping to see. we will be speaking exclusively to the hong kong secretary for commerce and economic development. will be joining us live. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: this is "daybreak asia." to start publishing data on how many people are infected with the coronavirus without showing symptoms. local authorities are being told to track and treat cases of asymptomatic infection. this follows domestic and international criticism. local media says the data will be released soon. u.s. jobless rate expected to set a record for the second week. the figure may double from last week's 3.3 million. it is seen as a more cogent barometer. week's number was already more than quadrupled the previous record. inlions of migrant workers

india as the virus lockdown ravages the economy. the benchmark stock market index fell on monday. the government's response may not be enough. it is set for a three-month decline of more than 30%. there are growing fears that the tokyo economy may stall if there are new virus infections reported. japan has remained relatively free of the pandemic but there is a concern that a rise in cases will cause of authorities to order a lockdown. a full shutdown in tokyo would be the equivalent of freezing and economy the size of canada. global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. this is bloomberg. hong kong will introduce

a second round of financial assistance. let us discuss all of that with edward yau, hong kong's secretary of commerce and economic development. great to have you, secretary. how quickly or of effectively you see any kind of economic recovery taking place in hong kong given that economic activity sentiment is at such depressed levels? and were already trending that way with the social unrest. to bedward yau: i think very candidate, it may not be the time to talk about this with the global pandemic going on. i believe the common challenge for the whole world including hong kong -- we know how wide

the epidemic is hitting. but it has yet to be known how into thevirus will cut individual and global economy. that is the biggest challenge for all potential bankers and government are facing. it is a test of resolve as well as resources. that point, we have seen that 10,000 hong kong dollar cash handout to people in hong kong. how does the government imagine this will help stimulate demand or growth given that the city is potentially under largely lockdown? are lookingyau: we at a situation on the daily basis. twonth ago, we launched major initiatives. budget.the new

including the 10,000 hong kong dollar cash payout to every hong kong resident. entire budgetary injection is over 200 billion u.s. dollars equivalent. , we set up anme epidemic fund. in addition to helping medical professionals fighting the battle in the forefront, we are also supporting 8-10 sectors including retail, traveling industry, conventions and exhibitions. handoo provide a helping to the struggling industries.

if the virus continues to spread and the economy is put into a need to do we will more. the chief executive has announced that we are looking into another phase of economic relief. hopefully to focus on the provide industries and some injection to boost the economy when we are able to talk about bouncing back. you have been mentioning the pending recession on the horizon. what type of recession are you prepared for to the extent of the drop in the duration of that recession? what are you prepared for at this point? sec. edward yau: that is the hardest question to answer, not just hong kong but globally. how long will the pandemic go on? we are seeing that in our part of the world, we are into the

second wave where we are seeing some returnees from overseas countries adding to the number of confirmed cases. thereing the economy, were difficulties encountered by most of the people in these industries. retail, traveling, hotels. they will definitely be moved to the bottom because global traveling has almost stopped. the second would be for those in the supply chain because of the cutting of many of the logistic arrangements. thise are also coping with by looking beyond the horizon. there will be certain parts of the world that will be able to come out of the epidemic slightly earlier.

the containment policy and social distancing policy. in that.o join hopefully, we can regain some momentum and restart the global supply chain and resume business. take the convention and exhibition industry. we are a premier in the industry. many exhibitions are held in hong kong. at the moment, nothing can be done and yet we are injecting money into these major industries. and providing relief. --n the time comes, we hope there will be major concessions given to relaunch this. we are focusing on this. this is in the medium-term. weentioned this because

haven't planning ahead. steps need to be done for this industry for instance. hit and wer is being need to cast the net wide in helping all businesses. taylor: in terms of casting the net, we have talked about economic relief. what about efforts for medical supply relief? this is a global supply chain issue. what are the efforts underway in that aspect? sec. edward yau: hong kong is trade a lot. the protective equipment for the medical staff as an example. , they focused on production centers. at this time, it is important for the world to share.

hong kong has been part of global sorting. we are also embarking on something used to help ourselves. an incentive for local production of surgical masks which are needed for the medical staff in hong kong. chainsseeing supply reestablishing in hong kong so we can help in the gap. in some of the universities and production houses in hong kong are also embarking on some renewable surgical masks. demand on reduce the surgical masks. these are small moves that in a difficult time, we have to find ways to help ourselves. globally, i believe it is the same. whether it is individual resources or more there will

need to be a lot of help to be shared by all of the economies around the world. edward our thanks to yau, hong kong secretary for commerce and economic development. do not miss our exclusive interview with the hong kong secretary of food. if you are watching in new york, 10:30 p.m. this is bloomberg. ♪

taylor: a video communications platform that has brought a of users is being sued over privacy concerns. with morejoins us now details. what is the latest? >> we are hearing that a user has used zoom which has become synonymous with teleconferencing. the user is suing zoom for illegally collecting user information and sharing it with third-party companies such as facebook. we have heard from media reports in the u.s. that zoom has updated its ios app in order for this to stop on friday. we have seen now criticism this collection of information and disclosing of

personal information without properly informing users. of course, teleconferencing through zoom has become a staple for the u.s. to do business. we have seen their cfo talk about bolstering capacity in order to manage this unprecedented demand. what are we hearing in terms of analysts' outcries? in stocke seen a surge prices because investors think one of the rare winners during this coronavirus outbreak could be zoomed adding users exponentially. morgan stanley raising the price raising the$105 -- price target from $90 up to $105. videoconferencing has become zoom.mous with

jp morgan filing data from utopia saying daily active users for this company are up by a 78%gering three edges -- 378%. our coanchor shery ahn in new york. here is a closer look at zoom which has been one of the huge success stories in this pandemic outbreak. accord are or of most investors would like to forget this. let us bring out david ingles from hong kong. top of yourhe agenda heading into the rest of the asia session? -- like like this month we have lived a lifetime already. the next couple of

minutes, we will see the pmi numbers coming out from china for march. we are coming with the lowest reading on record. flattering but will not tell the whole story. 44.8 will take you back to the lowest in record. still contraction. is its important to note seems manufacturing is coming back online faster than you are seeing in services. we have a story on the bloomberg today that talks about as china opens up, it is struggling to get the shoppers back in the streets shopping again. you have a lot of these sub the supply chain disruptions. raw materials. export orders. perhaps more forward-looking than the actual headline number. we will want to watch in about five minutes from now. taylor: outside pmi, what else

should we be on the lookout for? david: we are on watch for a possible deposit rate cut. they have given us a clear sign. look at the chart. the market has priced it in. the yield gap between the china three-year and the when your deposit rates is the narrow -- and the one-year deposit rate is the narrowest it has been in years. putting yountials in favor of going long on the hong kong dollar right now. and it is the end of the quarter. volumes remain low. don't we wish we could put this quarter behind us. thank you, david ingles. other big some of our

guests coming up on bloomberg daybreak: asia. including the chairman of -- corporation. that is it from "daybreak asia." market coverage continues as we look forward to the start of trade in hong kong, shanghai, and shenzhen. ♪ awesome internet.

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...simple, easy, awesome. [ barking ] >> it is not :00 a.m. in singapore, beijing and shanghai.

we are coming down to the opening of trade in hong kong purity china is to publish new data on people with the virus but new symptoms. it follows domestic and international criticism of the leg beijing has reported the crisis. japan -- the economy seems to be surviving. last months of retail sales and factory output beat estimate.