>> the world health organization since the outbreak may be today over 25,000. the pandemic rages on in the u.s. with reports of increased. the white house could consider a fourth round of stimulus. china pmi stronger-than-expected. if volatile quarter from markets. good morning, good afternoon and

good evening everyone. i'm francine lacqua in london. thoseof the focus on deaths and infection. it seems europe may be stabilizing, i spoke to a number ,f experts think it's too soon if you look at the curve of the seems it's getting worse and we are also hearing did may get worse before it gets better. this is what your markets are telling you. i know we've been talking about the dollar almost day in and day out. a lot of the focus is on what's going on. let's have a at what equities are doing, gaining 2%. gaining, u.s. futures, dollar strengthening a touch. a debate over whether there's

ground for a rally given the continued spread of the coronavirus but today they are focusing on better-than-expected in the u.s.. treasuries also advancing. let's get straight to the bloomberg first word news in new york city. >> we begin in italy. be approaching a peak according to the world health organization. numbersees the smallest of new cases in almost two weeks. the nation setting to extend its current containment measures until after easter. here in the united states president trump says oil prices have fallen too far and called putin. according to a readout, both leaders agreed on the importance of stability in the energy market. this assent oil heading for its worst quarter on record.

the white house and congressional democrats preparing for a potential fourth round of stimulus. requests -- the proposal includes state aid as well as financial assistance in the travel industry. , the government is facing pressure to speed up testing. there was confusion after they said they hit a target of 10,000 tests a day. health department statistics showing on the thousand people received it. they say people are tested twice. there concerns the uk's falling far behind its european peers in testing for the virus. -- theyungry, the handed the prime minister the right to rule by decree indefinitely. saying the emergency rules pose

no threat to democracy but opponents disagree. into the spot, the global economy could be changed forever by the outbreak. saying the crisis will reshape investors policy, practice and consumer policy. he added companies are reevaluating the supply chain and reliance on air travel. he says i have never experienced anything like this. day onnews 24 hours a air and a quick take on twitter. this is bloomberg. francine: let's get more on the markets and what we will see in the economy as well. with the chief investment officer at generale. email we caught up on

where you were telling me the central banks need to do more, you're also mentioning the possibility mmt is something we could see in the future. have they done enough so far? not done enough so far. they will have to do much more. they are doing good things. the u.k. government made good announcements but it's short-term. they will have to double or triple what they are doing. peaking, newe is york city is peaking in terms of new cases. aftermath,s of the which is coming down the next six or nine months, you will have to see the government more involved. involved in terms of resources or hard cash to businesses? already seen a lot. >> hard cash, much more.

businesses are down, small businesses in the u.k. as well must be down 50 or 60 percent going into this month next month. talking about real bailouts air. you can come up with complicated , iemes which are positive think helicopter money is here, universal basic income is here. i think they will last longer than people think. it's very different from the u.s. approach. cash,s. saying here's spend it well and that may help with the consumption. you're saying i guarantee almost no business will fail. which approach is better? >> i think both -- let's take one step back.

i wasn't here for the spanish below. and 08, it and 98 was very different. smaller epidemic but as aggressive. 2003, my senses -- my sense is we are peaking now, it's going to go from how much possibility i get a serious illness to how do i maintain a job and get a job and i think as ,e go into the job conversation then you really have to have governments doing whatever it mean and that would helping businesses stay alive. europe has different schemes you run different in the nordics in the u.k.. but is -- they essentially mean

you have to guarantee me enough for me to exist for at least 12 months. three months doesn't work. it's just not enough time. in terms of recession and unemployment and productivity, how much worse will this be 208 and 09. job losses will be significant in the real economy. the unemployment rate as we see these numbers from people we see estimates coming up. it will be much worse. what i'm trying to say is recovery rates. i think china given how much they are spending and how effective the usually are fiscal spending will probably start to see some level of stabilization by the end of the year. when it comes to the u.s., probably the middle of next year or possibly the end of next year.

really in terms of recovery time it depends on how much you spend and how effective you are at spending it. much about the realness of the virus, but how long it takes to come back. i know things are gonna change, we are doing all of that. i'm saying about people and unemployment levels, it's gonna take a lot longer than people would like and governments are going to have to spend. francine: what are the questions you're asking yourself as chief investment officer. some are saying you can go back and if government guarantees are strong enough nothing really changed that much. others are saying the way we work and shop, the way we buy things will be completely different even if we get back to normal. if you have a different approach

and you're off investing in different kinds of assets. think so. i don't necessarily agree with either. is is about getting people back into life and i think you can't extend that for a long. of time. pressure see a lot of in april for people to start to reopen. not in a 100% way. we have to get back to work and back to life. and so that's going to happen. in terms of what you invest in. you can take a look at markets today. market is pricing in a bad q1, the market is not pricing in a bad q2 or about q3. have secondts to

degree affects, you can have a more negative market. youd on everything going on could buy the stock market, but you have to be careful. thought weold that will come back to you to see what you're buying right now and the point for record lows. coming up a little bit later we will be talking about hand sanitizers and everything you need to keep safe. speak --hted to this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. i'm francine lacqua. i know a lot of you are working from home or surviving trying to make the most of it. worlde news across the let's get straight to the bloomberg business flash. shall says it doesn't expect coronavirus to have a significant impact on demand for its oil products but around oil prices it's creating uncertainties. facing a relatively minor impact it expects margins to be relatively unscathed.

its dividend by backward the advertising giant is clear the impact will wppease, in february forecasted a fourth year with no sales growth. the biggest month on record for u.k. grocery sales. there are key shortages and items including hand sanitizer and toilet paper. for the past 12 weeks, year on year sales have grown by the fastest rate in more than a decade. now to johnson & johnson. a more than $1 billion effort to develop a coronavirus vaccine. we will split the investment about 50-50. saying they could have early doses ready for emergency use as soon as january. saudi aramco thinking of -- it's pipeline unit. they may need the cash them in a

growing list of spending obligations. the company reaffirming its to make a and needs payment in its $70 billion acquisition. as the bloomberg business flash. we got some breaking news out of the bank of japan so let me do it before my producer is unhappy with me. the bank of japan's -- we saw some extra in from the boj also risk frequency for bond purchases. bank of japan is an interesting conversation with guests when you look at what they've done. a lot of people look me the ecb and bank of england saying they be they can take example from the boj. on to china, its manufacturing

activity rebounded sharply in march signaling the economy is bouncing back despite the slump in global demand caused by coronavirus. i think official pmi growth is around 52 up from the record low , 35.7 was back in february. china and the specter of inflation worldwide we are back with nikhil. if you look at the figures, they are much better. can the rest of the world use china as a template. how to deal with coronavirus, and if so with the damage to the world economy being much more limited than we are thinking. ishil: i think china particular to that. they have committed huge amounts of fiscal spending. pretty efficient at getting it

there into the right places. i think we will see let's wait and see. i don't think the chinese recovery is going to be a v-shaped rate we are going to take two or three more before they get to a stable place. i think it's going to be the same everywhere else because fiscal policy and monetary policy are very different in china as opposed to europe or the u.s.. look at theen you supply chains across the world, have they changed and will they change even more. i think they will but that is more of a conversation for a medium-term point of view. becausei changed simply in part unavailable. whether it's fears are still pretty prevalent, you see you go on the television in the u.s.

and people talk about 200,000 deaths. when you hear that stuff it scares people and to those the tell me 200,000 people are going to die, i say please show me your model. otherwise it's just scaremongering. all this has an impact. things will change, but for now it's more about how soon can we get back to a level of stable stability for us in our lives. francine: but does that depend on resources and these tests that show whether people have antibodies? if you have a large percentage of the population that aren't a danger to themselves or others as they go back to work and it could change everything. -- far away are we fit we are we from understanding that. nikhil: companies are doing the best they can in terms of

getting the antibody test. until we get a vaccine, nothing else really supplements that. you can test people into all the things, this is not enough test right now. theset to help get one of -- you've got a hope one of these comes up with a vaccine. in the meantime you can't stay hope thatare and immunity builds and you protect the vulnerable, the infirm and pretty much have everyone else in a way get back to work. francine: what does this mean for inflation? is it inflationary or deflationary? >> it's initially deflationary. it doesn't matter how much money government spends, i think you are looking at deflation in the near term and then people say inflation is coming and it will

but it may not come as fast as people expect. i think i would rather see glimmers. at this point is a glimmers of deflation and so we can talk about inflation. i think the fed has to do what they have to do. but let's not put the cart before the horse. after lockdown you will see a demand that's not gonna pick up soon. you'll see people saving their money within spending their money. so let's talk about inflation maybe later. thank you so much for joining us. chief investment officer. a lot more on your markets movement when it comes to the u.s. dollar, we also wrap up the first quarter in the markets. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is bloomberg surveillance. we will get the first quarter in the markets. this quarter have been staggering. off notlion was wiped even stimulus helped to stem the destruction we saw in wealth. global equities with the quarter had their worst run. digging into some of the region we saw worse than that, europe

fell by their most since 1987. it should be no surprise that within the sectors, energy did the worst with brent crude cratering with the worst quarter on record. 65% of its value wiped out. wells the supply shock as engaging -- with saudi arabia and russia engaging in a price war. the vix at one point in mid-march hit its highest level on record. it had its biggest spike in the quarter on record. francine: thanks so much. coming up we will have a full and wef the markets talked of the st. louis fed president. president.

francine: nearing a peak, the world health organization says europe's outbreak may be stabilizing. 45 days since the first coronavirus death on the

continent, today over 25,000. the pandemic rages on in the u.s. new york city reports a 16% increase in deaths in six hours. the white house and congress consider a fourth round of stimulus. and china pmi's come in stronger than expected. crude oil climbs from an 18-year low as a volatile quarter for markets comes to a close. well, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone. i'm francine lacqua in london. with your main stock movers, let's get to annmarie hordern. annmarie: i want to kick it off to the upside. shell out with an update, talking about the fact that they do not see the pandemic to hit them on the first quarter in terms of their oil product sales. will kennedy saying the worry will come in the next few months. from here out, demand is catastrophic, the second one on the board, up 6%. tell a fresh hitting a fresh record of more than 11%.

first quarter revenue was above .arket -- hello fresh bloomberg intelligence -- intelligence is saying that it may end up retaining this long-term as they get custom service. to the downside, l'oreal, down more than 2%. they are suspending 2020 guidance. they say a lack of visibility when the health crisis will end. they are seeing encouraging recovery signs in china consumption. lipstick effect. thank you so much, annmarie hordern. let's get to first word news with viviana hurtado. u.k. government is facing renewed pressure to speed up virus testing. there was confusion after it hit a target of 10,000 test a day, but only 7000 people actually received them.

they say that is down to people being tested twice. parliament gave the prime minister the right to decree indefinitely, putting the nation under his sole command as the vita -- as the crisis hits europe. the emergency rule is said to put the country under no threat -- the democracy under no threat. european central bank expects -- to fall in line to delay dividend payments according to the top -- if banks do not comply, the central bank will force them to do so. banks are reacting positively, taking responsibility. for is an important step sewing corporate responsibility for our economies.

complys decide not to with the conditions, we will decide about taking other measures. we can also take legal measures if need be. viviana: global news 24 hours a day, on air and at quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in i'm than 120 countries, viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. francine? francine: first of all, we have a little bit of breaking news out of hong kong. retail sales, the value dropping by the most on record as of february. on to the fed presidents. the st. louis fed president, james bullard, says the u.s. can afford adding trillions of dollars of debt to provide necessary fiscal support for the economy. he spoke exclusively to michael mckee. james: i did want to see pandemic relief. i would not call it stimulus, i

would call it pandemic relief. what i interpret the program as trying to do is to stabilize incomes, stabilize businesses as we work our way through this investment in our national health over the next couple of months here. on unemployment, we do have a blog on this. if you read the blog carefully, you will see that there is a way to bound the unemployment rate. it will be somewhere between 10% and i think the upper bound is like 42%. but that is because we are just identifying vulnerable workers isthis environment, and what going to happen is that those workers, some of those workers, are going to have to seek relief so they can pay their bills through this period. we expect the unemployment rate to spike, but let's call that pandemic relief. then they can pay their bills, and once the virus goes away, we will be able to return to

normal. hopefully, if this works inothly, and there is a lot the legislation, we will come out on the other end and get the economy rocking again. michael: but rent payments are due, mortgage payments are due, utility payments are due. will we have a problem with people not paying their bills one day? james: my sense is that we are in a crisis situation, but my sense is that everyone understands what is going on here now because obviously it has been the topic, number one, not just in the u.s. but around the world. i think people pretty much iserstand that the relief supposed to enable people to pay their bills as best they can. delays and be some things. you would expect that in a crisis situation. but by and large, i think there

are plenty of resources in this fiscal package to handle what we are going to go through here. michael: the main street landing program you guys announced is in the package. how is that going to work and when does that start? designthat is in the phase right now. i think from a firm's point of view, there are two ways to handle the crisis. one would be the traditional way, which would be to shut down temporarily and send workers over to the pandemic relief or unemployment line, and a lot of that is going to occur. that has already occurred, as we saw with the claims numbers last week. that is ok. the unemployment insurance benefit is beefed up, so they are going to get closer to 100% or maybe 100% of what they would have gotten had they just continued to work.

that is one way to go, but if the firm goes in that direction, they might lose connection with their workers. another direction to go is to go to the small business administration, get a loan, which is ultimately forgivable if you meet conditions, namely that you keep your payroll more or less intact. so if you go that route as a firm, then you might be able to retain all your workers, and then when they start up occurs later, you will be able to have the same workers, and you do not have to go higher all over again and get your business ramped up again. that might be a better way to go for many companies. if companies decide to go that way, then we will so lower loan side.t and more was jamesthat bullard, the st. louis fed president. we have a headline from china that captured our attention. china reporting a symptom attic

coronavirus cases. that would probably mean they are testing a number of people that in the past they would not have. this is how i am reading it. but i could be wrong because that is the only way you are finding out if it is -- it is interesting to see how everybody is dealing with this and whether they are getting a feel for how many people have it without showing any symptoms. we will have plenty more on that shortly. couldg the peak in europe be turning a corner in the fight against coronavirus. experts,alk to many including the world health organization, shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: this is "bloomberg surveillance." a lot of focus is on the market, a lot of focus also on this over in europe coronavirus. a number of countries have been weighing in. this as the world health organization also says that the number of deaths and therefore stabilization in europe could be coming. let's go to brussels with maria tadeo. the focus a lot is on whether europe needs corona vons. -- corona bonds. countries are not quite ready for them yet. that is it. that is the debate that is happening in europe. countries like italy have been hit so badly by coronavirus, also spain.

there is worry that their economies are going to plunge in a way -- into a deep recession. say is they really are not able to deal with this alone as the health emergency, and they are going to need a european tool. the corona bond has been a redline for the germans, but there is a huge pressure both political and economic on the germans to change their thinking. until now, what they are saying is that they do believe a credit line from the esm would be sufficient. the point is the italians would tell you they could not take that. the spanish are playing hardball, given 10 days to come bridg -- alan to, bridge, and at this point no one is really moving. francine: what can you tell us about they locked in various countries, the fact that the

world health organization thinks that things are stabilizing? does it mean we stay in lockdown, or will the lockdowns be loosened up a touch? is reallymaria: that going to be the next debate here. we are already seeing voices, especially in italy -- i would point to matteo renzi, who is saying we opened the economy and doing it perhaps in april. reality is that a lot of people live paycheck-to-paycheck and they are going to need cash or going to need cash. italy may be stabilizing. there is suggestion that the lockdown may be extended until may. it is a similar story in spain, where the lockdown has been extended, and the government has put in more restrictions to business. we will probably see more friction in terms of when do we go back to business because it is really hurting people.

thank you so much, maria tadeo in brussels. coming up, we are speaking to an italian foreign minister who is now a french member of the european parliament. that will be an interesting conversation on corona bonds. chiefo speak to the executive of rankin bank keyser, to -- of course hannah and hand sanitizers. this is bloomberg. ♪ this is bloomberg. ♪

francine: good morning, everyone. this is "bloomberg surveillance ." we just talked about corona bonds and various responses from european countries. joining us is a member of european parliament representing president macron's group. formerly, he was working for the italian government. thank you for joining us. you have a unique perspective because you are able to work for one country and another.

how essential are corona bonds right now, and will they tear europe apart if we do not get them? >> they are essential because we have to multiply by 10 the financial economic answer to prepare the economic recovery. have two suspend the implementation of rules. 40have provided almost billion for the region for the virus. it is very good but not enough. we have to organize and budget our response, which is not only on the national level but also with the new european plan. bond, strictly related to the necessary economic recovery after the emergency is over to get out of the crisis. you feel like

certain countries, especially the nordic ones, like germany and austria, whatever agree to it? so far the member states have agreed to it because there were nine leaders, and now according to my information, there are already 15 governments who supported the approach. so basically what we have to do pressure germany to have a common response in the area. why are they reluctant? one is for psychological reasons, but they are wrong germanywe do not want to pay the french debt. we have to give a guarantee for the nation of new bond which do ize.mutual l

the second point, it is an illusion. illusion that the virus hits differently, different parts of europe. unfortunately that you -- unfortunately, as you very well know, the virus is a global issue. the only difference is -- it starts in italy, then went to spain, now hitting france. and when will it hit the other countries like germany and the net -- and the netherlands, i think we will realize we need new recovery measures, such as recovery bonds or new budgetary instruments to have fresh resources. francine: are you disappointed that europe is not speaking with one voice? because the virus has hit a friend countries at various times, should we have a united lockdown? would that be the best way to deal with it? and how can you make sure countries are passing on vaccine information and research? sandro: on the second point,

they are doing so finally because there is -- we have cooperationstrong on this. to pool the effort in the reserves for the last time. on the other site, the europe of the european central bank, the europe of the european donation has already answered the plans that the europe and show -- the european central bank has launched. what we are disappointed about is the europe that doesn't exist, this meeting between governments, where they have to where oneunanimity, or two countries can block europe. this is exactly why we also have to reform europe, totally failing once again. but does it actually mean that if we do not have a united europe on this, that

europe could disintegrate? is this actually a make or break moment for europe? sandro: yes, it is. europe is at risk. , sinceiked in the moment the second world war, we have never faced such an important and deep crisis. you must secure the crisis and also keep in perspective already now, especially in the media run, deep social economic crisis. and at least the eurozone, not provide with a common answer. this is why we have to insist in the negotiation with the germans, because we do not want at thate -- it is moment. to nationalistic attitudes, or it can -- we are pushing for the second one. francine: thank you so much. too short time. joining us from paris, sandro gozi.

the company says it has a balanced out look on demand with respect to the virus outbreak. this is a consumer goods company that says it is selling less products but selling more of the antibacterial stuff. joining us is lakshman narasimhan. thank you so much for joining us . you have a pretty balanced outlook. can you be more specific about performance in recent weeks? where is the strength, and where is it not? for havinghank you me on. we do have a balanced outlook. just a month ago, we just started strong, very strong in some places, but at the same time we are working through a whole bunch of other challenges across the globe. -- we have a

portfolio that we believe is well-positioned. it certainly fits against these global trends that are underpinning what we are seeing onund us, and we are focused ensuring that we can execute against that. so just in terms of demand -- francine: i'm sorry, i cut you off. i want to talk about new roof and sales. there were reports that the drugs affectedry coronavirus p have you seen a big dip in demand? lakshman: we have seen no information or evidence that supports that position. it is a position that has been underscored by commentary from the who as well as from the

european medical association. cash regulatory bodies have put out statements that essentially say that there is no evidence against that, and we have not seen it either. we continue to see strong growth , but again, it is hard to abstract from a few weeks where the information as to what the underlying trend is. on a brand like that. francine: talking about what investors are asking at the most at the suppliers -- is it shutting down part of the supply chain, is it efforts to have more of the antibacterial stuff? what do people want to know from you? lakshman: we are really interested in hearing short-term how we are responding to this crisis globally. ,e have been at it for a while

as you mentioned publicly. one of our largest factories is in hubei province. and we have five factories in china that has all come back on and are working as hard as they can to meet the demand of consumers. so they want to understand the short-term, how we are responding. importantly, what they really want to understand is our long-term growth story and how we are going to unleash the potential of this company to deliver long-term shareholder value. and to do the right thing by the consumers, ensuring that -- francine: thank you so much for joining us. this is bloomberg. ♪ awesome internet.

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europe's outbreak may be stabilizing. 45 days since the first coronavirus death on the continent, today over 25,000. the pandemic rages on in the u.s. new york city reports a 16% increase in deaths in six hours. the white house and congress consider a fourth round of stimulus. and china pmi's come in stronger than expected. crude oil climbs from an 18-year low as a volatile quarter for markets comes to a close. well, good morning, good afternoon, good evening, everyone. depending on where you are in the world. i'm francine lacqua here in london, working from home, day 12. tom keene is in new york working from home as well. we look at markets through the terminal, look at breaking news, and a full roundup of what dollars do throughout the day. tom: at the end of the quarter, without question, the most somber end of quarter from december of 2001. really extraordinary.