this end of quarter does not look like the last quarter end. new year's eve 2019, climate change was all the range -- rage. 90 days later, a pandemic rages. worldwide, a primal scream for government assistance. the president's april hope has become june may be, millions will be furloughed, laid off, or fired. miami,, a doctor in five, commissioner shea, we really do not have time to mourn. londonin new york and and the somber and this of this tent hospital set up -- hospitals of this tent ,et up out bellevue hospital

this is a new york pandemic which frankly with the great chart the johns hopkins is doing and john von murdoch is doing, new york is essentially the mathematics of catalonia. francine: yes, and the mathematics of milan just outside of that. you wonder if we should've started preparing for this as far as resources and getting hand sanitizers and much needed medical equipment earlier. there is a pattern and we have charts charting that. wuhan and in china in then the epicenter was italy and it is slowly moving to other countries that will have to deal with similar fatalities. tom: some doing better, others less so as well. the economic ramifications to be

very clear, worldwide in the last 24 hours, the news in economic america is the furloughs to come. we saw that yesterday with a vengeance from retail. right now, with our first word news, here is viviana hurtado. viviana: the mathematics of the human toll in spain. yet.d its deadliest day fatalities,ing 849 bringing the death toll almost 8200. they have more than 94,000 confirmed cases. and democratse are preparing for a fourth of economic stimulus, including aid to travel and mortgage industries. nancy pelosi says state and local governments will need more help. in japan, the ruling party proposed the biggest ever stimulus package valued at $554

billion. one third would be fiscal measures. about 1/6 of the total would be handed out to the public in a combination of cash, subsidies, and coupons. in china, this month's manufacturing rebounded strongly , a sign the second largest economy appears to be restarting but it comes at a time when there is slumping demand from the rest of the world. services and construction in china are still shrinking. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: thanks so much. futures up nicely, a bang out day and close yesterday, futures with elevation. , jeff to focus on oil currie coming up with goldman

sachs in an hour or two, and i want to focus on the fact that boyle is trading in the tangible market at a lower price than the trading in the tangible market at a lower price than the quoted price. you have got to move the product and the storage issue is truly tangible. francine: i am seeing similar gains in futures. looking at european stocks treasuries. 1.7%, there is a raging debate in europe and a fight between italy and germany, and italy and the rest on these corona bonds. the other interesting piece of news from the ecb on friday, they were encouraging banks not to pay out dividends until october. yesterday, our important interview suggesting they could make that compulsory.

wti, something we need to keep an eye on, rebounding after touching an 18 year low yesterday. the we are going to look at economics and finance of investment of the bloomberg world, really focusing on jobs thursday, the claims data and onto the jobs report. the jobs report will not be as grim as the thursday data, we believe. our chief washington correspondent kevin cirilli is on the phone all day talking to the market he mocks. mucks.ety on the countless calls you take, what is the mood? i don't get that in the cable tv or big newspapers like guys. i am getting sterilized stuff. kevin: politics on pause? e.

i was speaking with so many different staffers and now that the bill has passed, yesterday was a day for them to take a deep breath and exhale and pivot towards the next 60 days. effectiveness is the threat i hear from the left and right, how effective is this economic stimulus going to be, and it is too soon for them to figure out as of now what the next round of economic stimulus will look like. tom: over the weekend, there was an uproar. when i go -- when i get angry with you, i will go, that eagles fan, and the governor of the beleaguered state of michigan with that woman, what is the relationship of the president with republican governors and those on the dark side? kevin: that is where this fight is headed. you identified the long-term political battle of the left and

the right. the left is going to push for there to be expanded access to mail in voting over the next couple of months, especially in red states. they will say republicans are not expanding that access, but republicans will say that democrats are not willing to try to allow for there to be some work that is going to be able to go on over the next several weeks. michigan ischigan, so incredibly important to the president's coalition as it relates to his reelection in november. francine: about the reelection efforts, how is coronavirus playing out? how popular is the president and how popular are his opponents? kevin: it has been a polarized issue, to answer your question, much like every other scandal we have seen.

sourceone trump campaign who told me they have the data from their rallies. massive trump rallies, that was a for the campaign in 2016 and this cycle for them to get voter data. they already have their data. someone said to me from the dnc, that is where this could be uncomfortable for biden because they don't have that ability. everything is on pause for this week, but a big question for the next couple of months that we will have to be answering includes what happens to the conventions, what happens to election day and access to mail in voting, and what will happen with those debates that bernie sanders and joe biden were scheduled to have. francine: i was going to ask you, what happens to the convention? if the lockdown continues, could

you have a convention by proxy? kevin: you could, and i think you could have a smaller scale convention. we are looking down midsummer. weekdent trump saying last he has every intention to go ahead with a convention. yesterday based upon my democrats,nd to some they were saying they are continuously reviewing contingency plans. tom: i have got to play the parlor game with you. we are all going nuts with this online distance learning of children. my brain is turning into a marshmallow. what is the likelihood of biden-cuomo? kevin: i don't see that at all. i will be careful, but i was speaking with a trump source yesterday who told me they don't see that happening either.

you should know what governor, said in a public appearance -- governor cuomo said in a public appearance in which he praised former vice president biden. i don't see that happening as of now, however it is an interesting political foil so to speak, that has emerged. to focus ono has getting new york out of this and biden has to focus on closing the nomination. tom: kevin cirilli spending the rest of the day watching every eagles-cowboys football game from 2006. kevin: only the ones where they won. tom: chief washington correspondent. interviewestion, our and conversation of the day, if you are concerned about higher inflation. mickey levy has had an extraordinary career, where he writes very terse, direct essays

on the state of our economics. let me cut to the chase, with great respect for the heritage of the shadow fomc cabinet in the late marvin goodfriend, should we fear inflation with its debt build up? mickey: not right now. yes, the feder is is pumping in huge amounts of what we call higher powered money. until that money is put to work in the economy, the answer is no. in near-term, because you have -- declining, you will have a deflation. tom: if the solution is a massive multi dollar income supplement during what is a is theandemic crisis, solution down the road to monetize that debt build up into

long-term bonds and basically pay off the pandemic over say 50 years? mickey: no, that is not the proper approach. clearly this fiscal package, i don't think of it as stimulus. i think of it as income support on the bottom is falling out of aggregate demand. it has to be unwound. the critical question is do we pay for this? absolutely, either in the form of higher taxes, lower government services, and even if it doesn't show up as higher inflation or higher interest rates, we pay for this one way or another. the answer is not to just monetize it, monetize it. inflationt show up in until we get all the high-powered money but to work in the economy. when we do see an acceleration,

that is when we have to be careful, and now the focus is on income support, getting us through this acute stage of the pandemic. francine: would everyone pay for it? there wouldn't be some kind of worldwide debt relief like we saw in times of war because what we are dealing with is quite warlike. a lot of heads of state have been talking about the invisible war we are fighting. mickey: when i say we are going to pay for it, what i mean is have a hugest decline in global economic through deficit spending and not have it be costly. one way or another, you pay for it either in terms of low will -- lower potential growth, higher taxes, lower government services. in a sense, this is like a war

but it is really a negative supply and demand shock. a real war like world war i and world war ii, you destroyed capital so there was tremendous capital building after that that added economic growth afterwards. following historic pandemics, you don't have that capital spend build and it takes a while for the economy to come back, for consumers to get their legs and feel confident enough to spend. i would not be surprised even over the next year if consumers are cautious, spending, but less. francine: thank you so much. we will get back to mickey leavy. -- leavy. -- mickey levy. coming up, and interview with jeffrey curry, global head of commodities research. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ francine: in china, manufacturing activities saw a strong rebound in march, indicating the worst may be over for the biggest slump in decades. to 52 after asing historic low of 35.7 in february. we are back with mickey levy. what can we read out of pmi's in china? does it mean we are over the worst and china economics

contemplate how the world should do it? mickey: i don't think we are over the worst, but it can be a dem -- a template. the pmi jumped up to 52 but it changed from 35. ,here was a slight improvement but things are still declining from the lower levels. you could point out in the chinese report that expert workers were extraordinarily weak, which is what you would expect. now that china is trying to get people back to work and most businesses are getting people back to work but there is not much going on, and global demand for chinese products is extraordinary. the rebound is going to be very slow. to seee: i read going defaults in china? -- are we going to see defaults in china? andalked about the pandemic

the government letting steam out of companies before this happened. what happens six months out? mickey: things were quite weak going into this crisis, and then the markets fell out. the sameincurring types of huge declines in economic activity. in coming months, it will be able to build up gradually, but what is -- with what is happening in europe, japan, around the world, exports are extraordinarily weak so chinese , it will be a long slog to get exports back up. ont means it will be slow importing consumer and durable goods. a critical piece of data to follow is global trade volumes and they will decline as much as

they had probably in 2008 and 2009, 20%. tom: that is a really important insight, to look at the aggregate of the trade worldwide . it has been an amazing chart for 12 years. we will continue this conversation on bloomberg "surveillance" and bloomberg radio. the many ways to see us on radio or digital product, including bloomberg.com, those podcasts we love putting out. on television, if you have a terminal, tv , it is a productive way to move through your working day at home watching and learning from bloomberg tv. this is bloomberg "surveillance account ♪ "surveillance." ♪

♪ good morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." from our homes in new york and london. we thank all of our technical team. they have jumped through huge hoops to make this work. i am an amateur and just to see the science, francine and i are lobbying to make this a permanent fixture, like our data check. francine: im not. -- i am not. blas suggesting oil

south. francine: i am not lobbying to make this perfect because does permanent. -- permanent. oil yesterday at an 18 year low. demand is being sucked out because of the coronavirus but timely is the market share fight between saudi arabia and russia with the u.s. getting involved to lower the price and make shale producers close down. tom: what is interesting about marketstle, rbc capital wrote an essay about the tensions trying to get russia back to the table, and it does not seem to be successful so far. the other thing we are looking at is the labor economy in america. trying to gain out those james

bullard numbers, 25 percent, 30% unemployment, michael mckee speaking with dr. bullard yesterday in st. louis. francine: it was a good interview, and a number of things we went through. treasuries advancing, dollar climbing for a second day. wti rising after a three-day slump. yen, we had a couple of movement from boj, yen sinking at the end of the fiscal year adjustment. tom: a timely conversation, mohamed younis will join us from gallup to look at the mood of america in this terrific crisis. ♪

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what is so america, different of the gallup organization with their heritage of polling is it is less about the horse races, the governor's race, the primaries and all of that, and more, the mood and emotions of america. no better time to speak to their leader then now, mohamed younis. what have you done in the last week to ascertain the mood of america in pandemic? mohamed: what we have done under the leadership of our chief methodologist's operate panel data to have real-time feedback data coming in every day on the challenges americans are facing, and the future they are projected to be dealing with in ,erms of jobs, workplace, lives children at home, remote learning.

we have been digging deep and expanding our horizons, talking to leaders from the white house to local government to various -- the health-care industry, the transportation industry, trying to understand the challenges people are facing, what we need to be tracking, and what it tells us about the future. americanspercent of have this evident desperation of fired, andayoff, or they are waiting for the safety net to come? what portion of america has that emotion this morning? mohamed: that is a great question. as of last week, which is when this settled in for most people, 29% of employees said their employer was cutting jobs, reducing hours, or freezing hiring. that has been rising, and we

will be reporting on the latest data as they come in. upexpect that number to come . 52% of the employees say their financial system -- financial situation has been affected by cutbacks at work. that being said, americans are overwhelmingly currently in support of the rescue package that was passed over the weekend. most small businesses tried to figure out how to take advantage of that. 77% of americans approved by the package that was support by bipartisan support, which is higher than most rescue packages we have seen in the past. francine: do you and citizens actually blame authorities for deaths? in italy we saw a couple of

should haveg people dealt with this before. inl we have similar reaction the u.s. and will that be against president trump? mohamed: that is a great question and that is what we will be tracking. americans are pretty satisfied with the actors involved in this challenge. for thet ratings are media, 44. elected leaders are around the 60% mark and president trump get 60% for his handling of the crisis. that predates his attempt to fast-track coming back to work. the highest approval ratings are really for health care workers and institutions that citizens rely on locally. theof americans approve of role hospitals and health care providers have played in this crisis so far. the other thing that should be

stated is americans expect the disruption to be prolonged. disruptions to last a few months, not a few weeks. getting back to the point on jobs, one third of the 170 5 million workers in the u.s. are basically out of the game as of one paycheck, so they do not have a cash buffer to last two to four weeks. 60 million americans are waking up figuring up -- how to pay rent. we have been tracking fears from every crisis to the right 2000ssion to 9/11 to the eight crash. americans have been impacted by the quickness and at the highest rate, and are the most focused. we ask are you following covid? 9/11 is the only event that

garnered americans' attention more. the critical death rates and infection rates are the metrics that come before the curve, the worry, the fear, and the social distress. we are trying to track those. we are always looking for nonpartisan partners to do that at a granular level. to find out what we are learning, we are reporting on all of that and we are hosting a weekly webinar to the public. francine: what does it do to the democrats? how popular is joe biden right now? mohamed: so far, we have not seen a huge impact on that. the rescue package that was passed was more supported by 80ocrats than republicans, 1% of democrats and 76% of republicans. early to think

about what this means for the election. americans have clearly shifted their focus. .hat will shift back what is key is how the president will handle coming back to work for americans. we see a partisan divide -- at least we did in the past two weeks for people taking the situation seriously and people feeling the need that the quarantine was needed and not overkill. prolongs and as the president has extended the self-isolation and quarantine, it will be interesting but early to draw any projections of what this could be for november -- could mean for november. tom: we hope to get this out on podcast today and we will see if we can do that given the challenges of new york city. mohamed younis with gallup.

yesterday, the news out of retail was extraordinary. our single best person with a security analysis of the pulse of retail is oliver chen. we are thrilled he will join us. right now in new york city with our first word news, here is viviana hurtado. viviana: the mortgage markets and trade industries may get aid. the government compiled lists from agencies totaling 600 billion dollars. nancy pelosi says states and localities will need deeper help. goldman sachs forecasting in the the economy will shrink at an annualized rate of 34%. revising its midyear jobless forecast from 9% to 15%.

crude is wrapping up its worst quarter on record. of is down 65% since the end december. donald trump he is concerned and spoke to vladimir putin about the market share battle with saudi arabia. in the u.k., there is rising pressure to speed up coronavirus testing. 10,000 tests are being carried out every day according to officials, but the actual rate is 7000 per day. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. worldwide, we had earlier the spanish headlines of real challenges in madrid and catalonia. coming up, we will look at retail america with oliver chen

from cowan. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ morning, everyone, bloomberg "surveillance." thank you for being with us from your homes, tv out on the terminal. we greatly appreciate your attendance in this crisis. he charm of oliver chen, lives the spirit of retail and the in-store experience. he is great at walking into a store and sizing it up differently than the way i would size it up. acclaimed moment

when oliver chen went down to soho and walked into glossy a -- and said, this is going to be a big deal. the headlines of the last 24 hours are not surprising. it is furloughs. let me ask the basic question. do those people get to go back to work at some point? .liver: we hope so the point of the furlough is to keep people on staff but take a pause because liquidity is a problem. for department stores, we think they have five to eight months of closures before it becomes serious. the big question is what the pace of recovery will be. l.lett bv, you, or u, or l.it be v,

for the threeood major players? i know everything is shuttered. there have been the plywood stores of chicago and the rest of them as well. is this good for those three major european players, for them to consolidate further? oliver: what we are seeing in this evolution is getting bigger. like and wen we love walmart and target as well. consolidation is happening and helping for the well and low capitalized. scale matters and there will be smaller brands that will get taken out. we will see that unfold, unfortunately. tom: what will we see in smaller retail? of lexington

avenue and 59th, to my right is bloomingdale's, sephora, and to , and right aiery next to it, american eagle. how do those smaller platforms do? oliver: what is problematic is y have a eagle and aer place in the mall. 25% to 30% of the malls in the u.s. are in a difficult place and macy's was closing malls. we will see a lot of pain. lvmh, ais owned by great sector. macy'sgdale's is part of , employees are furloughed and are doing their best with online sales, but clothing is a difficult category.

as consumers stock up on goods and as 40% of households are looking to be prepared for what is happening, walmart, target, costco, those have been beneficiaries. as we think about curbside pickup and how do you shop without seeing or touching somebody, that was already happening with generation z, so this is accelerating the no contact list, zero checkout experience. those are discretionary stores and those numbers are not doing well online either. as americans think about hierarchy and needs, food and beverages and wellness and nourishment, it is much more important than the latest pan ties. toncine: when you come back

what you were saying, we are going to see pain in re-fall -- retail, will we see default? oliver: it likely could happen. we have seen a real survival mode, so capitalization has been critical. defending dividends, andrchases, cutting capex expenses and furloughing workers , retailers are taking every step they can to stay alive, and the key is cash management and managing inventories. the vendors are not well-capitalized so as retailers cut orders, one problem is planning for fall deliveries. fall deliveries may be an issue because of the capitalization and network capital and managing cash tightly, so our liquidity reveals quite a bit of liquidity of $1 billion to $2 billion.

expenses are between $400 million and $500 million, and online can often be lower margins. it is critical, and people are really just trying to stay alive. i know in italy and athleticse of the makers have repurposed into hand sanitizers. are we seeing similar efforts in the u.s.? oliver: that is what is happening. contacts and vendors are thinking about how do they work with factories to make masks and other items? it is time for the industry to come together and focus on .umanitarian ideas

luxury goods are emotional in nature and this is a crisis. i applaud these efforts in rethinking retail in terms of how these companies can be the most useful to society now. people happening, and will forever change as consumers in rethinking brands and community. chen, thank you so much, with cowan. a nice update on american retail and some of the immense challenges forward. we will continue an important stirs.ew from cal there view is important. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ this is surveillance." we spoke to james bullard, and he said the u.s. cannot afford all of the debt it is accumulating to fight the coronavirus and says it will not

hurt growth in the longer-term. he spoke exclusively to michael mckee. want to see i did pandemic relief -- i will not call it stimulus, i will call it pandemic relief. what i interpret the program is trying to do is stabilize incomes and stabilize businesses as we work our way through this investment in our national health over the next couple of months. on the unemployment, we do have a blog on this. if you read the blog carefully, you will see there is a way to bound the unemployment rate between 10% and the upper bound is like 42%. justis because we are identifying vulnerable workers in this environment and what is going to happen is that those workers, some of those workers will have to seek relief so that

they can pay their bills through we expect theo unemployment rate to spike, but let's call that pandemic relief, and they can pay their bills. once the virus goes away, we can return to normal. if this works smoothly and there is a lot in the legislation, we will come out on the other side and get the economy rocking again. michael: may 1, mortgage payments are due, rent payments are due. when peopleroblem cannot pay their bills? are in a crisis situation but my sense is everyone understands what is going on, because obviously it has been the topic number one, not just in the u.s. but around the world. that thederstand

relief is supposed to enable people to pay their bills as best they can. there might be some delays and things. you would expect that in a crisis situation, but by and large, there are plenty of resources in this fiscal package to handle what we are going to go through. michael: the main street lending program, how will that work and when does that start? mr. bullard: that is in the design phase right now. i think from a firm's point of view, there are two ways to handle the crisis. one would be the traditional way which would be to shut down temporarily and send the workers to the pandemic relief or unemployment line. a lot of that will occur and a lot of that has occurred. we saw the claims numbers last week. that is ok.

the unemployment insurance benefit is beefed up so they will get closer to 100% of what they would have gotten should they -- should they have continued to work. if the firm goes in that direction, they might lose connection with their workers, so another direction is to go to the small business administration to get a loan which is ultimately forgivable, that you meet certain conditions, that you keep your payroll more or less intact, if you go that route you will maintain most of your workers and when the startup occurs later, you will have the same workers and do not have to hire out again and get your business ramped up again. that may be a better way to go for many companies. then we will see lower

unemployment and more landside. -- loan side. francine: that was james bullard from the u.s. fed. this is what u.s. indices are doing in terms of fluctuating a touch. in europe, stocks are holding onto the gains. the market meltdown we saw last week has continued to spread given the spread of the coronavirus, because markets are focusing on the stability of the numbers and what authorities have been doing. china reported stronger than expected manufacturing data. european corporate spreads are easing, they yen down. ♪

♪

alix: second-quarter growth pain. goldman sachs sees a 34% decline in the second quarter with a stronger rebound in the third quarter. if the worst over? china march pmi skyrockets higher, while officials worn doesn't mean every thing is back tomorrow -- everything is back normal. we will speak to scott sheffield, ceo of pioneer natural resources, and jeff currie of goldman sachs. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: americas" on this tuesday, march 31. congratulations. we made it through a terrible first quarter, and we could be ending on something of an up note. futures dipping into positive territory after the first quarter since 2008. yields down by about three basis points, but in europe, still seeing some selling.