nothing funny about this april fools' day. for millions, the rent is due and the check is not in the mail. america goes in search of direct income substitution. across the nation, it is not there. new york city like barcelona, ever-increasing deaths. the president is grim as dr. f auci whispers of 240,000 deaths. dr. hotez of the medical community as they race to find a vaccine. the central banker to the world act yesterday when will the internet -- acts yesterday. when will the international monetary fund need to act? this is bloomberg "surveillance." francine lacqua in her home, i in my home as

well. we are in a grimmer america and the trend we are seeing in this pandemic, what do you observe in london on this wednesday? iancine: more than london, wanted to give you context on the rest of the u.s. it is a different market in the u.k., many more homeowners and people do not live as much as in the u.s. paycheck-to-paycheck. in the markets, we do not know what will happen because all of the rent due in the u.s. in the credit markets, regulators are racing to deal with this. they have more than $1.5 trillion in outstanding debt, something we need to keep an eye on. tom: emerging markets front and center. right now, our first word news. viviana: president donald trump

is largely giving up his optimistic tome and warns -- tone and warns the u.s. to brace for one of the toughest wretches ever. the corona -- stretches ever. the coronavirus could kill 240,000 people. overw york, the death toll 1000, new york state reporting over 75,000 confirmed infections. that exceeds the place where the virus emerged in china. the top oil producers will try to stop the historic plunge in prices, president trump raising the issue with vladimir putin and mohammed bin salman. the saudis are planning to boost output again. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries.

i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. futures lower. yields are in with curve flattening. i want to focus on the stresses in the emerging-market. they are all different whether it is south african rand or turkish lira with recent record week as. -- weakness. em is indicating stress and oil under pressure as well. francine: i think we need to spend more time looking at oil. investors are taking this worsening coronavirus figure badly and trying to assess the impact the pandemic will have on corporate profits and dividends, with banks in europe saying they have postponed or scrapped dividends and buybacks stocks are down and a lot of the

pressure is coming from banks where u.k. banks are down 6% to 7%. wonderfulve had conversations with professionals in the medical community but of course what we do every day, economics, finance, and investment. we are thrilled to bring you abby joseph cohen of goldman sachs. i must start with your charitable commitment that also includes the hospital of your new york city. cornell andpdate on new york presbyterian and their many hospitals are doing in this most difficult crisis. abby: tom, good morning, and good morning to everyone else. i have the honor of serving as a member of board of overseers of cornell medicine, which is one of the leading hospitals in the united states. we are very fortunate in the city of new york to have a

handful of outstanding teaching hospitals, including mount sinai and a handful of others. what i would say is the hospitals in new york, while we often see the unfortunate situation in the public hospital situation here, the teaching hospitals in many cases were somewhat better prepared. governornell, as mohamed lahouaiej bouhlel has hascated -- governor cuomo indicated, cornell is working on the models so the preparation began early. what we are seeing in new york is great coordination within the state in which hospital resources are being shared. we see that certain hospitals are being turned into covid hospitals with patients who acquire other services being moved to different institutions. the physicians, nurses, and

everyone else involved while at cornell are working at full tilt , and basically are providing a good deal of information to the governor about the course of this disease, best ways to treat it, and of course the unfortunate data that many had projected our coming to pass. are coming to pass tom: we have seen here or there a cavalier moment of someone with substantial means running from the virus, running from the pandemic, trying to remove themselves from the struggle everyone is racing. -- basing. you will -- everyone is facing. you are a voice of wall street. what does everyone need to do to support main street under

duress? abby: a heavy question, but i will do my best. the basic spots ability of wall street is to provide capital and basice have -- responsibility of wall street is to provide capital and what we have seen is providing capital. ofated to the various pieces the school stimulus, they aim to make sure capital is flowing. the cost of capital, i.e. interest rate, has gone down, but the plumbing is working. one thing we are watching is things like spread and we are looking at various credit facilities to see what is happening there. our concern all along since the very beginning of this crisis in february, meaning for the united states, has been the availability of capital,

particularly for small and midsize businesses and also for individuals. this remains of notable concern. impact ise what the of the various packages that have been undertaken. we have already seen that the monetary policies may less is stimulus is- policy having the desired effect. the biggest economic kit on a monthly basis will likely be in the month of april. part of this has to do with the service industries that have already been shut down in a significant way, but this will be a rolling health crisis in the united states. while the first example of community spread occurred in new york, new york was not alone, and the doctors and public health experts looking at this believe the virus entered the united states likely in

december, so it is already widespread. it is just a question of whether those clusters are forming, and we see now they are throughout the united states when you talk specific the about new york -- united states. when you talk specifically about new york, we are one of many. governor cuomo has talked about why new york is so hard-hit and i hope the lessons we learn here get carried over to other major cities. one question i have are the rural communities -- if i could just finish. many people have moved into more rural areas. people who live in those rural areas full-time, one of the worries is the hospital systems in those communities may not have sufficient facilities for people who get sick there. francine: let me just jump in from london.

this is a health care crisis. it is turning into a possible economic crisis but central bankers and policymakers have done their best. is this a solvency crisis? difficult to know when the economy gets kick started again or gets back to work, so how different is this from 2008/2009? 2008/2009 was clearly a financial crisis on which something there was too much debt in many sectors around the world, and the banking system was not prepared. one of the things we are fortunate in the united states is that we have had an awful lot of tough love on our banking system for the past 10 years firm regulators, so the banks themselves are in much that her position than they were -- better position than they were. i will not speak about the position in europe.

in the united states, the banks seem to be in better shape than they might have been. the solvency issue we remain can learned about in terms of the intermediate -- concerned about in terms of the intermediate and long-term period have to do with the sme's, small and mid size, and the individual household. the plan will have some benefit, but those will be some second order effects on the economy. the near term obviously is very much a health crisis. this is an economic recession that has been brought about in an extremely unusual way. it was not brought about by financial stresses or excess inventory throughout the economy. instead, it was brought about by the demand shock created by the health crisis. sinceover my notes

january, the concern among investors was the shock to the supply chain because of the impact in china and throughout asia. that pales in comparison now to the demand shock. that demand shock is heavily concentrated in services, and we think from a time standpoint, april and may will bear the brunt of it because of the constraints on all of us in terms of whether we can get around, and what we are hoping is that when we get to the latter part of this year and some of those physical come sprain's -- constraints -- fiscal constraints compose -- imposed on us will start to go away the year on year numbers will look awful but we will look at the quarter on quarter numbers. a lot of the initial data we will be seeing will be wrong. the gdp data and many other

important factors and data that we look at are based upon sampling techniques, and those samples will be way off in this period. the initial data will probably be wrong. the most accurate numbers we will get on a real-time basis will likely be the labor market data. we are expecting those to look awful over the next several months. the unemployment rate, for example, the reported unemployment rate in the united states could get up to 15% in the third quarter of this year, number, the more comprehensive number including discouraged workers, people working part-time involuntarily, that could exceed 25%. that is the third quarter and we think that will be the worst. francine: we will get back to that, abby joseph cohen.

she stays with us and we will talk more about those employment figures in the third quarter and what more central banks can do. this is what is coming up on tv and radio. an interview with bill dudley coming up at 8:30 a.m. in new york. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ "surveillance," from london, from new york, abby joseph cohen with us. viviana hurtado will have the news. i may have a few questions for ms. cohen and then francine

wants to talk banking. i look at the equity market and it is not a time to look out ask months,wo years -- six two years, three years. look out five years and what do you do now if you are trying to create real wealth five years out? abby: that is an extremely important and yet difficult question. if this were a normal cyclical recession, as painful as those might be, i might be able to answer with more clarity than i can now. the reason for the hedge upfront, before i answer the question, is in a normal cyclical recession what happens is you go back to where you were. what we are expecting this time around is that some of the structural changes that were

already underway in the global economy will continue perhaps on steroids. we are also seeing that this health crisis is unveiling a number of problems and stresses within the economy that perhaps were hidden. let me give you an idea of what i have in mind number one, something i have -- have in mind. number one, something i have written about, the disparities in the united states by geography and income level as it relates to education, perspectives economic growth and gains, and so on. this economic crisis is pulling the curtains back from these issues as well, and i think that we are going to need as a country to think about what we have learned in terms of basically variations in access

to health care, variations in access to employment, and so on. number two, we will see an acceleration with regard to use of technology. while many of us who are urban dwellers have benefited from good access to the internet, what that has done to our work lives and so on, we basically see that lots of financial services firms in the united states at least were able to switch many of their employees pretty easily to telework. that is not true for many urban areas where instead of 99% broadband coverage they have 60% coverage. those are issues. i think we are also going to see -- and i think this is critically important and not yet adding enough attention -- the way we think about different countries may also be affected

by this crisis. so as was discussed previously on the country -- on the program this morning, the weaknesses in europe have become more obvious and so has the strength in china. tom: abby joseph cohen with us of goldman sachs, we will continue. we have much more coming up, some important guests, and on this continuing medical crisis. as you heard from abby joseph cohen, we are seeing that. as well, large institutions adapt and one is bank of america we are thrilled to bring you a conversation -- bank of america. we are thrilled to bring you a conversation with brian moynihan as his bank is overwhelmed. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ "surveillance," from new york and london. market, futures are down, not going to call it dramatically. yields are in, curve flattening oil, with the headlines we years being, need to for -- headlines we are seeing, we need to frame

oil at $20 a barrel. up therats how he set equilibrium theory of going down well into the teens if not lower. dare i say, he mentioned $10 a barrel at one point in the conversation. what you see?- francine: -- what do you see? stocks down,opean euro extending strong pmi readings. drop is posting a record in terms of the index. dollar climbing with treasuries. a bit of movement when it came to yen, so there is a

to the markets of a haven as president trump warned the strut -- spread of the virus is worsening. rbs and lloyds candles outstanding dividends -- canceled outstanding dividends and buybacks is after -- buybacks. this is after we heard from regulators of a similar stance. go to tv if you are a bloomberg user. , andan watch tom and i follow the comments from our guests. -- ifn also ask guests you click on the little blue line, there is the ask the guest question. ♪

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or just say help into your xfinity voice remote. we are working to make things a little easier on everyone. download the xfinity my account app today. ♪ --they are varies to bring, they are very sobering, 100,000 people. a lot of people have thought about it, ride it out and think

of it as the flu, but it is not the flu. it is vicious. as the experts are predicting, we are going to start seeing some real light at the end of the tunnel, but this will be a very painful, very, very painful two weeks. new casese number of begins to level off, the secondary effect is less hospitalizations, less intensive care, and less deaths. the death and the intensive care and hospitalizations always lag behind the early indications that there are less new occasions per day. we saw in italy, and we are likely seeing -- i don't want to jump the gun -- we are seeing little inklings of this in new york. we have got to brace ourselves in the next few days to a week or so.

we will see things continue to go up. becauset be discouraged the mitigation is working. telling donald trump reporters the coronavirus would simply go away but he has dropped that optimistic town, warning the -- tone, warning the u.s. to brace for difficult weeks ahead and the coronavirus could kill as much as 240,000 americans. in italy, factory output took a hit last month, factory pmi falling to its lowest level since the recession in 2009. all of italy is in lockdown. the industrial heartland is one of the first places to see a surge in cases. paymentson in rent coming due, many renters warned they will not pay, and that has property owners and companies

looking for solutions. many agree the pain will spread. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. we welcome all of you worldwide, francine lacqua in london, tom keene in new york. kevin cirilli joining us. the rent issue is front and center. every conversation i am having is it has been an abject failure of washington to simply substitute for income, to let people pay a portion or all of their rent let's begin -- rent. let's begin with the mood in washington. our politicians aware they did not cut a check for this month's rent? kevin: yes, they are.

i interviewed mark calabro you and he said that fannie mae and freddie mac were taking steps to mitigate some of the financial pressure on individuals for this particular month. fannie mae and freddie mac have -- they haveisely withdrawn the ability to do evictions and a host of other financial leniency's, but the public has not been educated on this and that is where the significant pain will be lying. francine: meaning what? if people cannot pay their rent, they do not have anyone to turn to? or is it people have been forgotten? kevin: both. that is a good question. when i speak with lawmakers on both sides of the aisle, and

yesterday, it has increased the pressure for there to be another innd of economic stimulus the month, six weeks ahead. however, right now we are in the fog of this crisis as the president said yesterday, and the economic data as it relates to housing has not been able to come in yet. tom: that is all well and good and i am hearing it where we have institutional, almost technocratic processes in crisis. what we need like the united kingdom is to admit that we have x millions of people who need a check cut for their landlord. is there any discussion of that in washington? kevin: no, right now there is not, but i hear your point. beyond that, the checks that the and democrats and

republicans have promised will not hit people's bank another week. donesely what the u.k. has , and in contrast the united states, they are a world apart. it comes at a time when the administration, democrats and republicans alike, in taking that additional week to pass the legislation they let go of a public onucate the the resources and tools they have at their disposal. francine: thank you so much, kevin cirilli, our chief washington correspondent. a really important conversation. president trump saying he would meet with saudi arabia and russia in the goal of stopping this historic oil plunge. notia saying they are

looking to meet with saudi arabia. joining us on the phone is kevin book. always great to speak to you on the phone. what amount of pain can russia and saudi have? this is about market share and comes at a time when the world is on halt, on hiatus, so they don't want any oil. dowdy low enough to get arabia and russia talking? -- saudi arabia and russia talking? kevin: $10 survives anywhere in the world, but if you look at the foreign exchange reserves and tolerances of the both countries, it is not an economic -- explicitly on capitol hill, it may be more quietly in washington against saudi arabia, and some firmer pressure on sanctions in venezuela, hinting

at what could happen to russia. direct engagement is as much a factor as reality. entire point.e the longer this goes, the more everyone will be focused on a workout in the end. francine: who will win in the end? who will win market share? who will come out triumphant? kevin: it is an open question. , will it be in opec victory, the answer is probably yes. shutdowns of higher marginal cost reduce or's are starting to happen, but in the near term, the long skidmark in the field patch, it takes a while to shut back in and when things start

back up, it can take a while too , so victory will be measured at the margins, the high-margin producers. clearview are wonderfully wired into the washington zeitgeist some of us of a certain vintage remember -- zeitgeist. some of us of a certain vintage remember midland texas. how is the permian basin going to do? what do you hear from their political representatives and the energy industry about the future of permian basin and $15 or $20 or $25 a barrel? kevin: if you look at the differential relative to the wti benchmark in oklahoma, we are looking at a deeply inverted, particularly after it turned out the petroleum reserve for did

not go through in the last stimulus package. they are asking for a range and saying this is important as an economic all supplier. fieldhing from the spr still not out of the opportunity, but whether there is a production credit or direct intervention to keep operators solvent and functioning on a cash basis, and keep jobs intact and prevent bank failure as a broader systemic risk. the pushing across the board from washington, they are getting some receptivity. the question in terms of what the next stimulus fight might look like. tom: what is it going to look like? what is going to be the energy battle in pelosi 2? kevin: the last time, time was

the principal constraint so it ended up on the cutting room floor. it was a site between green btus and fossil energy and nobody wanted to take the fight if you go back to 2015 when the oil export ban was lifted, that was a big watershed moment, and intervention that was a trade you can measure in btus, oil and gas had to give up a lot to get a deal on exporting oil. they gave up green energy market long-terme years of extensions. look for a simple gambit today. i think stakes will be measured in green btus. tom: focusing on oil and washington, west texas -- in washington, west texas intermediate in the $20 a barrel range.

a conversation with true policymakers, we are thrilled to bring you olivier blanc hard, who has written a piercing essay on whatever it takes. stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ viviana: you are watching bloomberg "surveillance." finalizing aric $21.4 billion sale of its biofarma business, bringing in much needed cash and bolsters the ceos effort to chip away at a massive debt load. the latest blow to xerox's attempt to stimulate growth,

they dropped their hostile takeover bid for hp, blaming uncertainty stemming from the coronavirus pandemic. -- the offeralue undervalues the personal computer maker. that is the bloomberg business flash. tom: thank you so much there are people -- thank you so much. ofre are people at the pulse corporate america, people speaking with corporate officers in an original crisis. jonathan cromwell has been around for ages, distinguished, and frank aquila joins us now who drives forward so many of their conversation. what are you and your senior partners hearing when you speak to your client? frank: good morning, tom. the conversation is fairly

24/7.nt, the proverbial what we're hearing is certainly a focus first and foremost on liquidity, secondly looking at what they need to be doing to aheadheir business moving to the extent that they need to be doing things to deal with their clients, to deal with employees, and really looking at all the various aspects. there is certainly a great deal of foreboding as to what is going to come next year. tom: what we see right now and certainly on this april 1 with americas.re two it seems to be business as usual

for corporations while so many of america, main street america need a direct income subs duchenne right now -- substitution right now. how can corporate america explained to washington the urgency of aid to the people of this nation? frank: i think corporate america understands it in some ways better than washington because they recognize that -- recognize the knock on effect as people stop paying their landlord, people stop paying other bills, and that has an impact on the landlords whose top paying their loans -- who stop paying their loans. it puts the banks in a precarious situation, so i think corporate america in many ways understands the fragility of the american economy and the weakness of consumers far better

than some of our elected representatives do. francine: give me a sense of u.s. that m&a in the was about to happen, will it be postponed, delayed, or canceled? frank: deals that were signed and announced by and large will continue on and will happen. geust heard the news about closing their transaction with danna her. r. danihe the ones i am working on are moving at a pace that may be a little bit slower to complete just because regulators are working remotely, so they take longer to get approvals. deals that were not announced fall into three categories. one third roughly get put into abeyance and do not happen, one

third get put into bay and -- into abeyance and come back, and one third are moving along slowly. the will be substituted -- ones that don't happen will be substituted by deals where because of liquidity issues, companies will decide to sell themselves. companies will decide to sell businesses and assets that are non-core. we will have a very weak first half in m&a, but at some point in the second half you will see a couple of months that will be very strong as that pipeline moves forward. francine: is there a danger that when we come out of this, the economy kick starts, if companies are about to fail they get taken over and this is the

bad kind of m&a that comes out of desperation? frank: a lot of what we saw in 2008 and 2009, there is certainly that possibility. one of the factors with respect to the government stimulus packages around the world is that fewer companies will be of that sort of desperation. that is at least the hope. francine: thank you so much. talking to usuila from sullivan & cromwell, mobile head of m&a. , ahave more on central banks fantastic conversation later on with bill dudley. also later on, the qualcomm chief executive joins us at 5:00 p.m. in new york, 10:00 p.m. in london. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ good morning, good afternoon, good evening. this is bloomberg "surveillance." shao me reported a 27% year on year jump in

third-quarter revenue, thanks to robust internet service and business overseas. we heard from the president. most of shao me stores were closed and offered shorter shorter hours- with less customer traffic. it to oure compared advantages and online travels and we have seen smartphone shipments rebounding quickly and march 2020, shouting -- showing the rib resilience -- showing the resilience of smartphone demand. we have opened two stores in china so we see recovery. right now, the smartphone market

isifically is 80 -- specific 80 -- specifically is 80% to 90% of normal demand. this is what we are seeing. our manufacturing capacity has also recovered close to 90% already. >> the increase you have seen and some of the internet nervous his business, how much of a thet was that to you given coronavirus pandemic? traffic, content driven online namesot and -- video and online games reported sonic growth. our advertising business could potentially be impacted if

customers decrease their budget. some increases, some decreases, but overall we grow our international business. that was the president aomi speaking to taylor riggs. presidentocus on what trump said yesterday, the market will get kick started later than expected and the number of horrific deaths he was talking about we saw pressure on european stocks. american futures falling as investors take worsening coronavirus figures badly and assess the pandemic's impact on corporate profit. dollar climbing, yen catching a bid. speaking of dividends, a lot of

companies in the u.k., especially banks, halted dividends at the request of the bank of england. cancelingnd lloyds outstanding dividends and buybacks and saying there would be no payment in 2020. stocks under pressure after that announcement after the bank of to lenders's wrote asking them to cancel dividend payments and supporting the wider economy. tomorrow, an exclusive conversation with bill winters on this subject. he is with standard chartered. ♪

♪ wipe -- dny pummeled.

a helluva bad two weeks. president trump gives his assessment of coronavirus in the u.s. as deaths climb in new york city. firms like hsbc scrub dividends and payouts. "elcome to "bloomberg daybreak on this wednesday, april 1. i'm alix steel. it looks like we are opening up to a very difficult new cycle marketery difficult open. we had pmi across asia, as well as in europe, but really, it is the overall negativity and just how bad things can get, particularly in the u.s., putting a lot of pressure on equities. the solution is go ahead and buy bonds. bond yields trending really close now from that record low.