america? createhis pandemic briefly depression conditions? claimso of jobless indicates millions of furloughed, laid off, and fired. no end to the shortage of dollars, capital fleeing from less-developed nations. dollars,the losses in pesos, lire, and rand. the trajectory of debts in new york city -- deaths new york and new york -- new jersey could be worse. i am tom keene with francine lacqua. give me an update on prime --ister johnson -- he is ill but give an update on his efforts. the most possibly interesting conversation i had in the last 24 hours on the u.k.

was with bill winters of standard chartered who saw first hand what was happening in wuhan. he said the u.s. and u.k. were too late in dealing with coronavirus. mr. johnson, who is still self-isolating at downing street, he has given up doing the daily briefing. he has given that to michael gove. unprepared andl we watch what comes next. the amount of traffic in london is still quite palpable compared to france and italy when they are in complete shutdown. , i drove around a bit yesterday and it is a 15% of what it once was. a lot of good conversation

today, jeffrey sachs will join us in moments. we are thrilled to bring you laureate michael spence of new ,ork city, and at 12:00 noon david westin in conversation with the vice president of the united states. let's get to the first word news. viviana: china accusing the u.s. of trying to shift the blame for its own coronavirus outbreak, responding to the report that china concealed the extent of the problem. the u.s. intelligence community reported that beijing underreported the total cases and deaths. providing for potential civilian use as many as 100,000 body bags. the military has half that amount and are looking to buy more. reserveowe -- the u.s. well allow -- will allow for an

absorb of liquidity. in the u.k., boris johnson's government is learning the cost of its coronavirus lockdown. about one million people planned welfare payments. it is highlighting that the package may be too slow to stop a big jump in unemployment. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. tom: i want to get to this quickly, equities, bonds, currencies, commodities, a rebound off a challenging april 1. go.n on the screen, up we bonds doing better. oil up to dollars. -- two dollars.

one of the things i am watching is the fragility of em economies. liquidity and solvency given a resilient u.s. dollar, and the demand for u.s. dollars. francine: treasuries flipping along with the dollar, oil surging after china unveiled plans to boost its reserves. they took advantage of a 60% plunge this year to add to stockpiles. european stocks were gaining half a percent and they are slowly in negative territory. it is pretty much flat with a little bit of red on the screen. tom: he is the liberal that conservatives respect because he gets out front of the debate, jeffrey sachs of columbia university, whether of decades or of david lipton on russia presently on sustainable energy

or possibly a decade ago, way out front on the changing demographics of society of america, jeffrey sachs has led economics. we are thrilled he could join us from columbia university. there is any number of ways to begin this conversation but i'm going to go all gary becker on you, laureate of chicago, and i look at the sociology of america, the idea of a rigid individualism and conservatism. is that belief harkin and back to the wild west, is it -- harkening back to the wild west, is that threatened now to a more socialized america? jeffrey: good morning. we are in a pretty dramatic moment, a frightening one. we have to understand that we need a society level response to

epidemic,is terrible so in one sense if we go it alone, the amount of suffering and death would be horrendously high. that is why just about everybody , including the administration now very late has come around to the idea that we need public health, not just private health. the absence of public health monitoring and contact tracing and identifying cases of this disease and taking it nonchalantly from mid july into march hasy led the united states into an utterly disastrous situation. now we need to get on top of this epidemic to contain it, and

that is the most urgent matter right now. tom: right. scoop jackson or hhs of minnesota. we have a set of democrats with a wide view of centrist and left and liberal politics. wideo they ensure a population of americans who were scared stiff? what can the democratic leadership do to reassure america it will get back to a fiscal responsibility down the road? , the $2 trillion came from the white house. it didn't come from anybody else , and the reason that it came was the incoherence of what would have been much smaller

costs of having containment policies and public health policies. this isn't about profit and spending. let's just make sure we're focusing on what needs to be done to end this epidemic without massive losses of life, and even what the white house is saying in terms of the number of lives they are projecting to be in the ominous press conference of a couple of days --, should be understand understood more clearly. we don't have to lose 100,000 lives in the united states in the coming few weeks. what we need to do is maintain this shutdown for several weeks, and in the meantime, dramatically build up a public health system of people who are going to be chasing down new

symptom cases, the contacts, doing testing and doing the things that east asian countries are doing now so they don't experience explosive exponential growth in the epidemic. everything we should be talking about now should be how to get the public health system working so that we are not suffering tens or hundreds of thousands of deaths. this is of course, in addition to that, are the front-line heroes of the health system treating people and that will happen because of all of the build up if action is cases. let's get this under control and talk about how to do that. francine: how do you do that? i am italian and i have read a number of reports that if you leave it up to hospitals, it is difficult because staff cannot get to work if they get infected.

you treat this as a humanitarian crisis? in terms of resources, it is an infrastructure problem and who is the best person in the u.s. to deal with that? there is still 15% less traffic in new york, which means there are still a lot of people out there and you are in lockdown. jeffrey: i think first of all there is a need for people to understand the difference of the health of the hospital system and the public health system. wherespital system is people go with severe illnesses and where they are treated by heroes to keep them alive. that is being overwhelmed right now by the number of infections. the public health system, which we barely had for the last two months, and italy and europe barely had, is the system that says there is an epidemic.

we need to find every case, track the contacts, put people in isolation so they do not spread the infection to others. it is called containment policy. korea, what hong kong, and china after its initial wave have done to succeed. we don't have a functioning public health system in the united states. we have an emergency hospital response. we need to use the period of this lockdown, a few weeks, if it is successfully maintained, which will bring down the number of infections dramatically because most people who get infected will recover. most symptoms will be mild enough for a normal recovery as long as they don't pass the infection to others during this lockdown period. then you get dramatically fewer cases in eight or 10 weeks.

then we have better have at that moment the kind of public health system we should have had in january, february, and march, so that the fewer cases are tracked. they are in isolation. there contacts are tracked. we are able to end the konta -- lockdown with the confidence that cases will be isolated and traced more quickly so we can go back to daily life. if we don't have the public health system, we are condemned -- please, let me finish, because it is not properly understood in this country -- if we don't have the public health system, we are condemned to have this epidemic continue, or to have the lockdown continue because the only alternative to the lockdown is a public health

system that can monitor and contain the disease. we are not talking about this properly. the white house hasn't had a clue about this until this moment -- clue about this. until this moment, we need to implement dramatically scaled up possibilities knowing this painful lockdown will reduce the number of new infections dramatically, and have a new approach to it in a few weeks. r.g. g7 and g20 leaders sharing the right resources? arehere a free flow of -- g7 and g20 leaders sharing the right resources? is there a free flow of information? jeffrey: there should be better information sharing. there is a lot of success in asia right now.

that is true also of china, despite whatever reports. successs had a dramatic in bringing down this epidemic -- i am speaking to people all over china, not listening to press releases, but speaking to people involved on the front lines in the community. the number of cases has dropped considerably, dramatically. china has successfully contained this, although they are still at risk of further outbreaks. other countries in east asia like singapore or like korea or kong,apan, taiwan, hong are using containment methods that are very aggressive. everybody's temperature is getting taken. people are monitored coming in and out of buildings.

symptoms are reported more rapidly. people where facemasks routinely. the social distancing is maintained. cases coming in and out of the country are monitored. this is systematic public health we did not have in the united states from the time this new virus was publicly identified on january 11 until now, essentially. started to take this epidemic seriously, by the time trump stopped saying this is nothing, we were already in a deluge of cases. the containment possibility was completely overwhelmed. shutdown,dea of this which should be nationwide and sustained systematically for several weeks, is to get the number of cases down

dramatically to save the lives of his many people as possible of those who have been infected possiblemany people as of those who have been infected, but to use this opportunity to train tens of thousands for more than that of case managers taking temperatures, helping people isolate, insisting on breaking the transmission of the disease six or eight or 10 weeks from now because that is the way to stop the epidemic, rather than have it run through society. ,om: we are going to come back jeffrey sachs of columbia university. i want to mention michael spence will be with us later on bloomberg television and radio. an important conversation, the vice president of the united states, leading president conversationts, in

with david westin. good morning. ♪

♪ morning. keene,e lacqua and tom and with us jeffrey sachs. unfortunately only one question more. i have to go back to your youth and russia, and it is a different russia then you knew as you attempted to bring capitalism to that nation long ago. is it a rush of putin? what would you expect to seem -- see between saudi arabia and putin's russia?

jeffrey: the basic story for both countries is the world has changed decisively. they are petro states in a world that will be using less and less petroleum. this is the most basic point. dramaticallydemic accelerated what was already the underlying reality we are getting out of fossil fuels. butad to do so anyway, because of climate change we are doing so dramatically because business travel will be replaced by zoom and skype and other meetings online. , they are in some kind of short-term battle over a deeply depressed oil and gas thatt, but the truth is for both saudi arabia and russia , there is no future of an economy in fossil fuels, so they

had better get on to doing something else or diversified economy. russia has always had the potential to do that. it needs integration with europe, china, and understanding , both political and technical cooperation. that is what i have always recommended. saudi arabia is more complicated because it is not a diversified economy, it is an oil economy, but we are moving to a new kind of world. tom: appreciate the time today, and i cannot say enough about 'efforts on the education dearth of america. there is a lot to talk about. michael spence of new york university will join us. david westin with the vice

president of the united states at roughly 12 noon. who isup, a gentleman expert on the fiscal policy of this nation, jason furman of harvard university. we look forward to that conversation as well. please stay with us. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ this is bloomberg "surveillance," tom and francine

from london and new york. touch,uities rising a european futures were rising but are flat. they have gone back up some 0.4%. it is a rough start to the fourth quarter for risk assets as we look at the number of deaths in europe. two hours until the weekly jobless claims report in america, a grim number, one of the topics were our david westin in conversation with the vice -- topics for our david westin in conversation with the vice president of the united states. ♪

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they picked the wrong woman. just say "xfinity movie premiere" into your voice remote to bring the theater to you. ♪ viviana: you are watching bloomberg "surveillance." spain reported its worst day in the

coronavirus pandemic. in the last 24 hours there were 950 fatalities, putting the death toll past 10,000. spain has 110,000 confirmed cases. mcconnell hill, mitch would move slowly on considering a fourth stimulus bill. post" hethe washington would ignore the efforts by nancy pelosi to get talks going and is concerned about how congress would pay for another wave of federal spending. walmart will help the u.s. government procure surgical placing aald trump call directly to the ceo. the largest retailer does not sell gowns but some suppliers may provide them. donald trump may restrict flights from some cities hardest hit by the coronavirus, among

them new york and miami. he is concerned about causing more harm to the airline industry. global news 24 hours a day, on air and @quicktake on twitter, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. hurtado.ana this is bloomberg. tom: thank you so much. in first rate, top-tier economics it is typical to have an economic track. very few have the courage to go out and do policy first and one of those has been jason furman, who for decades has been policy centric about this nation, its debt, deficit, and underlying social economics. he is a former chairman of president obama's counsel of economic advisors at harvard. olivier blanchard

yesterday, peterson wants whatever it takes. now fromway are we whatever it takes? jason: the most important answer to your question comes from how people, not economic people, but if we have to spend trillions more to protect the economy from health measures, that is something we can do. can do that, but at the heart of it is an american and trenched fear of a debt buildup. d fear of a entrenche debt buildup. how concerned are we about our debt and deficit long after this pandemic is over, let's say fiscal year 2022? jason: in world war ii, we saw the debt go up by 60 percentage

points of gdp. that was worth it. it took decades to get the debt down as a share of gdp. we largely did that with economic growth. right now with low interest rates, you don't need that much economic growth to get the debt on a downward path once this is over, and i would worry about that after all of this is over. francine: when will all of this be over? i don't know how difficult it is to model. it is the impossible question, but what can we learn from asian countries that have dealt with this before the restaurant world? -- western world? jason: they bounced back relatively quickly. i am more pessimistic about the united states and europe where we have never seen unemployment

rates come down very quickly, so as unemployment rates go up, they come down slowly. backit be 2022 that we get to the gdp per capita we had in 2019? if that is the case, we should count ourselves lucky. francine: what kind of policies would you be for camping up or --nging -- amp being up amping up or changing? checks. will send through doors and the u.k. is making sure every business will have access to loans and grants. is this because we are in different cycles of these economies or different velocity? jason: some of the differences are not as big as they seem. countries pay the employee to pay the worker.

in the united states, you can furlough the worker and they will be paid effectively by the government, and can go back to work. the net of those is the same. the difference is the institutional infrastructure you had going into this. the united states did not have a paid leave system. that is the system european countries are using. did not have the same degree of state lending and the like, so we are having to invent new things rather than scale them up and repurpose them. we have room to tax in the future? we just went through a three year effort to do tax cuts and by any research, most of that gain went to the haves and the elites. be a responsible tax

nation 12 and 60 months from now? say,: you go to people and we did this extraordinary thing and we need to pay it back over 30 years, not right away. will people have the appetite? i don't know. -- which maye limit the degree to which people have a good feeling toward the government and its effort. tom: there is the controversy of a 30 year timeline from jason furman. i want to tell you about the morning, michael spence will be with us later on bloomberg, and then the vice president of the ,nited states with david westin

and in washington a press conference with the president and his medical team. tv is the place to see us on the terminal. a lot of other ways as well, on radio, on television, on the terminal on tv . this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ tom: good morning, bloomberg "surveillance." jobless claims at 8:30. our interview with vice president pence from columbus, indiana, a small city in

indiana. vice president pence, very timely with our david westin and the 12:00 noon hour. ,ith us is jason furman bipartisan but affiliated with democratic party politics and serving president obama in his chairman -- council of economic advisors. vice president pence represents a voice in america scared skiff -- stiff from another time and place of socialism, too much government, may be much federalism as well. how can we navigate this crisis and assuage the people represented by the vice president? jason: you know, this is an extraordinary time. the ideology you might've had before, this isn't the time for it.

if you love government let them go. fight about the regulations later. if you are worried about the size of government, do not worry about that now. fight about that later. people decided they will not do long-term policy now and they will do pride -- they will be pragmatic. there has been a lot of that involved, maybe not enough. tom: i know you don't do market economics, but a terrible statistic last week, another this week. asman and his team look for a 20% reduction in nonfarm payrolls over the next weeks. is that about where you are? jason: that is about where i am.

you go through the occupational categories and figure out who can and can't work, and you get something unimaginable. wencine: when you look at -- were talking before about more things the u.s. government could be doing, what do you think about the current delivery of aid? how is that going? how should we be looking at that? jason: i think the checks will go out quickly. they are probably the smartest part of -- smallest part of the response but the most useful. uninsurance -- unemployment insurance is stayed based and many of those are creaking under the huge strain they are under. bit -- smallmart businesses. to dohave no idea what noh those applications and

more on the incentive the banks have. prepare budgets, dramatic budget cuts to reflect dramatic revenue, those states need to get a lot more revenue than they got in the first three stimulus bills. francine: how would you do it? do you increase debt at a smaller level and write off that debt or separate debt? we are talking about the euro global traction, but how do you roll it out? jason: right now, i don't think you need to do something extraordinary. you issued the debt. and economies can buy the debt if they need to, but i don't think they need the policy of monetization as long

as they pay attention to the yield curve and explicitly manage the yield curve. that will mean endogenous they will buy what they need to buy. it is emerging markets that i much more worried about what their capacity is to deal with this. the imf will need to be a critical global backstop. we will need to think not just about our own countries, but about the world, which is hard when your country is being as affected as it is. francine: simon kennedy leads our economic coverage and was trying to figure out how fiscal policy will be changed forever from this. what do you think? jason: in places like the united states, we will hopefully get some more social insurance, which could have scaled up at the time of this crisis.

it may mean we are doing less of everything else because of the huge debt, and we will have to see where interest rates are. markets are not particularly phased by the huge debt issue. tom: jason furman, thank you so much, with harvard. we look forward to michael pence later and michael speaking with david westin. let's look back, a conversation with brian moynahan of bank of america. brian: what the federal reserve did is a lot of liquidity programs and state licensed markets. what congress passed is an effort to keep people employed so number one at bank of america , to the extent that we keep

people employed and keep cash in the household, that will be terrific, and keep the baseline growing. how do you help small businesses do that? that is the program they will implement friday. how do we get the money out quickly on behalf of congress and the president and the administration? they dealt a set of regulations that are out in progress -- process and have been published. we ask customers to be patient. we ask them to go back to their banking because the documentation, you work with those banks and we will have millions of customers come to us and go through in the program. they can continue to pay their employees, that is what the money is geared to do, and to cover some overhead. we are setting up shop and activating thousands of people to take the activations, a huge

physical -- digital presence. are trying tous live day to day, week to week and get through this crisis, but some economists are talking about demand destruction being a permanent reduction in demand because of this crisis. is there a risk of that and how much? history, if you think about the throughput of the u.s. economy, with the amount of stimulus and fiscal support that is coming, the amount of 25%tary support, whether down in the second quarter and working its way up, the sheer amount of dollars in that is overwhelmed by the amount of support coming in the markets that is geared to help us come out on the others faster. if we mitigate the health-care

crisis, you will see on the others of this a rebound. as people have adjusted their second quarter down more because of unemployment, there will be a deeper downdraft, but most economists and eternal reversion believe a back to the economy gets back to the same size next year as it was prior to this, which is a pretty fast turnaround. francine: that was brian moynahan of bank of america. banks also scrapped their dividends after the u.k. regulator pushed them to free up more money to deal with the fallout from the coronavirus. i spoke with bill winters of standard chartered. more from that interview shortly. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ good morning, everyone. this is bloomberg "surveillance." earlier on we spoke about asia and the differences about asia recovering and europe. with asia seeing falling cases

of coronavirus, we turned to recovery. bill winters of standard chartered expects singapore to recover in the second half of the year. i spoke to him earlier on. bill: the bank of england took the view that given the uncertainty around this crisis, uncertainty in terms of financial requirements and the losses that the banks will take, it is important to be extraordinarily prudent even though we are sitting with strong capital ratios and a clean loan book. the regulators have taken the view that prudence should rule the day, and i understand that. when can we get back to something like a more normal capital type strategy? we are going to have to see the role of banks in helping the world recover from this

tremendous shock has largely flown through. we can all speculate how long that will be. i think we can see the ability to return to normal by the end of this year, but the economic challenge will carry on for years. i don't think that means we wait for years before we manage our capital. we need to let the dust settle, understand what the demands are on bank balance sheets, and understand what the cost of this crisis has been. i hope we get some clarity toward the end of this year or next year, but the way this pandemic is rolling out it does not offer much in the way of forecasts. anything is there governments can learn from the response of asian countries? i think there will be books written and a trillion hours spent analyzing what we

could have all done differently, what we could have been able to see and forecasted and things the government could have done differently. i find it interested does interesting to look at the debate now -- interesting to look at the bait that we could not have done what the chinese did because we don't have that society. we are doing it, we are just doing it too late. we are depriving people of what would have been basic civil liberties weeks ago because it is the right thing to do for society. francine: that was bill winters, chief executive of standard chartered. we have a lot going on in the markets. oil is on the move after china bought some strategic reserves because the price fell significantly, 60% from the beginning of the year. let's get to the bloomberg

business flash. is expected to announce voluntary buyouts to 161,000 employees. no word on how many employees they hope to cut. boeing has seen a sharp contraction in demand. 44% of the global airport -- aircraft fleet is parked. the government is suing all --, wanting them to unwind withjuul. vowing to defend the deal although it has written it out -- down over two thirds. year, the stock purchase was part of softbank's rescue of wework, but they notified that

conditions had been -- not been met. francine: this is what your markets are doing. we check markets every 15 minutes on bloomberg tv, a lot of focus on oil and what will happen in the u.s. at the open. we have a couple of data that the markets will latch onto, and we are looking at what is happening with certain stabilization in terms of infected cases and deaths. later today, david westin in conversation with the u.s. vice president david pentz -- mike pence. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ alix: claim pain.

economists see as much as 5 million people filing for unemployment last week. in the coronavirus blame game. the u.s. intelligence community says china wasn't transparent in the number of infections and deaths, while china says let's not make the virus about politics. the s&p now having its worst start to a quarter in almost 100 years. now a rebound back with some optimism in the oil markets. welcome to "bloomberg daybreak: americas" on this thursday, april 2. i feel like it has already been 10 years, and it is only the second day in the second quarter. we are seeing some kind of rebound. a big part of that is oil, as you have oil prices up by about 10%. maybe we are going to get some kind of deal from saudi arabia and russia. at least, that's what president trump thinks. not