♪ haidi: a very good morning. i'm haidi stroud-watts in sydney, where markets have come online. taylor: i'm taylor riggs in new york. welcome to "daybreak asia"." hits aonavirus epidemic grim milestone, one million people infected worldwide, 50,000 people have died. europe remains in the eye of the storm. spain's deadliest day yet, while

germany sees the economy shrinking at least 5%. this, as fears of a virus follow-up could last for years. we hit our -- we will hear from ceo bill winters this hour. haidi: let's look at trading when it comes to australia. asia looking softer, potentially modest bump up after u.s. stocks saw the first gain in three days of losses. in new zealand, trading is dataway, retail sales is a point we will be looking at later to give us an indication, not super forward-looking, but at least how things stand in terms of the fed rate period, asia excluding japan looks like it has had a flat week so far. that is u.s. future. waitinghe bond market,

for the ava bond purchase, the aussie yield curve steepening ahead of the government announcing option plans for the coming week. we could see a bump up in primary activity, looking at the three-year yield to and the week below target after the central bank boosted liquidity and calmed down money markets. we are watching banking stocks after they cut fees, one retail giant invoking interim retail dividend to preserve cash, taylor, a common story with corporate's around the world. taylor: back in the u.s., the white house press conference on the virus outbreak is happening now. president trump says the paycheck protection program will start tomorrow. treasury secretary stephen mnuchin says interest rates on small businesses are being raised to 1% after lenders complained. . shery ahn joins us. what is the latest on the

paycheck protection program and the defense production act, because those orders went into effect today as well? we are talking first about a $350 billion virus relief program for small firms. loans will be forgiven if the funds are used for things like payroll costs and retaining and rehiring employees. secretary steve mnuchin explained he had to raise rates on those loans to 1% after lenders complained the previous -- was .5% was blown below their own cost of funds. mnuchin says the program for independent contractors is coming next week. president trump says he expects more orders under the defense production act, saying he invoked that order against 3m for the production of masks. when it comes to the oil market,

the president struck a more optimistic tone, saying the saudis and russia may cut oil by 10 million barrels. hes followed a tweet where talked about a conversation with mohammed bin salman of saudi arabia, who spoke with president putin of russia, but there was 10pticism about one what million barrels meant. in the meantime, president trump is doubling down and saying russia and saudi arabia both want to make a deal. taylor: we are getting headlines that the u.s. had their aa plus rating affirmed by s&p, the outlook stable, it is not rated comingt again, s and p out and affirming the rating on the united states at aa plus. the outlook has been stable.

ery, as we hear more about the press conference, what is the latest on u.s. cases and deaths? shery: we continue to see confirmed cases and deaths in the u.s. rise. in new york, more than 92,300 cases, more than 2300 deaths. pence,esident mike saying there have been more than 100,000 americans tested daily for the virus. already more than one million tests have been performed. mayor bill de blasio here in new york talked about changes in guidelines when it comes to wearing masks, encouraging new yorkers now to cover their faces when they venture out. mask guidances will be coming in days ahead. remember, there was a lot of holding back from the white house on telling the public to wear masks.

they weren't sure of the efficacy of the mask against the virus, not to mention they are worried this would take supplies away from medical health care workers. remember the days when our top story would be the democratic debates? seems like a long, go. lockdown andg how pandemic efforts are affecting the economy, but also the political calendar. we are almost forgetting that it is an election year. was just a few weeks ago that we would be reporting about democratic primaries. we are now seeing more primaries get postponed, not to mention the democratic national committee, just announcing its july convention will be postponed until august because of the outbreak, just as you said changing the fundamentals

of the 2020 presidential election. we are seeing lockdowns it 38 states, or stay-at-home orders, so we are seeing a big impact on the economic side of things. americans applying for unemployment doubled in record to almost 6.6 million applications last week. at least one million workers have lost their employer-provided health care insurance over the past two weeks. taylor: i thank you to shery ahn in new york. let's check first word headlines. ♪ the coronavirus hits and unwanted milestone is to -- as global infections top one million just four months after it was reported in the chinese city of wuhan. 15 -- 50,000 people have died of covid-19. ♪ china rejecting u.s. claims it deliberately downplayed the

coronavirus, accusing washington of seeking to shift blame for its own handling of the crisis. beijing insists it has been transparent, denying any attempt to underreport cases and deaths. the foreign ministry asked what the u.s. has done apart from barring arrivals from china february 2. spain mirror -- spain remains gripped by the contagion, 950 new victims, taking confirmed deaths above 10,000. thursday was the deadliest day in spain, health services stressed to a breaking point in the army facing its biggest ever peacetime operation. they should recognize that they should not repeat the mistakes made. look at stocks we

are watching in the aussie session. shares areer's trading slightly higher after announcing preservation of an interim dividend to preserve cash, also cutting by 20% in terms of the ceo and other senior executive salaries for three months, shareholders moderately liking this move because it is looking to save $150 million when it comes to retained cash preservation. mostpreservation is the prudent way forward for shareholder value. we are tracking australian bank trading, tracking higher after moody's downgraded the outlook of the sector to negative. citigroup expects westpac likely to cut the first half payout by 10% to 18% after a dividend clampdown. we are also hearing reports

these banks are really cutting back when it comes to fees charged to consumers and loan holders. coming up, more on the coronavirus including the long-term effects of a pandemic. we are talking decades, not just years and months, according to the san francisco fed chair who is with us next. taylor: plus, why a nobel economys is a v-shaped recoveries unlikely. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ investors are watching indicators to see how deep the covid-19 pandemic has affected the global economy, at least in the short term. over the longer term, the effects of the pandemic can last as much as 40 years, according to a new research paper from economists at the san francisco

fed and university of california davis. joining us is the lead author on the paper, oscar jorda, senior policy advisor at the san francisco fed. professor, great to have you join us. available, the data what do we know about longer-term impacts of pandemic crises on global economies? you.: good to be with the data is not that great on pandemics because there are not that many that have the reach that this one seems to be having. you have to go as far back as you can in history. we went back to the 1400 and try to examine the effects of pandemics on the natural rate of interest. longer runat in the -- in the short run we obviously understand the effects of

pandemics quite well, there are massive effects on the economy. runhe longer run the, we -- effectswe found these manifest themselves decades after the pandemic ends. at the 20-year mark, interest rates were affected by about 1.5 percentage points in terms of returning to marginal levels. is whatnot to say that is going to happen in this pandemic exactly. -- of the opinion that the effects are attenuated by the fiscal response we are seeing and other facts are different from historical events obviously. but this is our working hypothesis so far as to how to fork about policy effects policymakers going forward in terms of fiscal and monetary policy. changeshe modeling

because when your paper was written, you were looking at 20,000 global debt sent we are up to 50000 and a matter of days and weeks. concern that central bank monetary policy isn't most effective tool to blunt something like this, what other options are there? compare back to stimulus efforts and monetary efforts during the financial crisis, what would you put in place? the monetary policy acts on three premiums, the liquidity premium con the term premium and the risk premium -- liquidity premium, the term premium and the risk premium. wethe liquidity premium, need a jolt in the financial system in terms of liquidity.

the way themium, central bank is reacting is by purchasing long-term assets which are safe investments. could in principle, and that is more expense book, act on the risk premium if it decides it wants to buy risky assets. there would need to be legislation to allow the central bank to do that. but clearly to me, the right response is a massive fiscal response that we are seeing in many economies across the world. and that is because we think the covid-19 epidemic is going to start to subside somewhat during the middle of the summer. over the can tied economy, and hopefully medical developments come online, more indicators come online, we are

then ito a vaccine, think the economy has a better chance of regaining its footing. if we don't provide that ridge to that point, then we run the risk of having increasingly more likelihood of a financial crisis. that is what we all want to prevent. i'm curious about your modeling on job losses that might become permanent. getshinking small business freaked out by all this and then is slow to rehire staff. and on the consumer side, we see how weekly jobs can be taken away and maybe the consumer rethinks spending behavior. do any models show what the permanent damage might be? although youactly, hit the nail on the head.

debte seeing that level of in businesses as one of the areas of concern going into the pandemic. are seeing businesses take a very risk-averse position by laying off workers, as opposed or takinghing experimental views about how they maintain their workforce. "panic" is being pinched by forecasts and they are not able to continue their operations, and may be leading businesses to fire more workers than they would have otherwise. you hit the nail in the head when you talked about consumer attitudes toward the aftermath of the crisis. that is one reason why think this pandemic is going to have longer-term effect. essentially after the pandemic,

our view is that consumers will tend to be much more conservative. they will try to boost savings, try to regain their wealth, those are going to be two factors pushing down consumption and boosting saving. that is one reason why you see this downdraft on the natural rate of interest in the decades that follow an epidemic. i think that is natural in any of these events. taylor: financial models tell us that when you print money, it leads to inflation. we can't get inflation if there is no job growth. our you -- are you worried we could become a japan-style economy with sustained disinflation? oscar: sure, that is one of the concerns. there is a great deal of uncertainty when you are in the middle of fighting a pandemic.

worrying about inflation or deflation becomes a little more secondary. the proper ensure function of markets, especially credit markets, so that as workers have to stay home, they at least have resources to tide them over until the can regain its footing. the same thing with businesses. businesses are in a crunch situation. if they can maintain their businesses until things come up, if they are unable to do that, the cascade of negative events could precipitate a much worse outcome. i have some confidence that given the duration of the closure of the economy, hopefully sometime in the middle of the summer this situation might not be as great as it could be, there is a great deal

of uncertainty. is in mymy in japan rate could goral below 0% while the central bank is one of the primary monitor -- primary monetary tools, which is managing the interest rate. if your interest rate is low zero with a 2% target, you are talking about a nominal rate that is just about 0%, and you don't have the headroom to lower interest rates the way we did 20 or 30 years ago. japan hasreality been illustrating the last 20 or 30 years. shery: -- haidi: the cap yacht at the end of your paper is the merge -- this is the first major pandemic we are seeing where members of society are surviving past 60. how does that affect consumer

demand on what the labor looks like?- labor market looks oscar: hopefully the pandemic want to have the death toll relative to the population previous pandemics have. tragicts are of course -- deaths are of course tragic. estimates when you compare them to the population of the world are going to be at a relatively contained level. it is true that most of the happening are mostly concentrated on older workers, older individuals. perhaps aspect that might not put as much pressure on the natural rate and in previous occasions. huge the other way, the

fiscal effort governments are putting on the table is posting economies, and that works in the direction of actually boosting the natural rate. taylor: we love your insights. from san francisco a month ago. there is no city like it. at theou to oscar jorda san francisco fed then day professor at uc davis. plenty more to come on "daybreak asia." this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ taylor: standard chartered ceo the winters spoke bloomberg about when the firm's suspended dividends might be back and when he sees recovery.

bell: -- : giving the uncertainty around the coronavirus, the risks that banks will take, it is important to be extraordinarily prudent. we are sitting with very strong capital ratios and liquidity and a very clean loan a book. regulators have taken the view that prudence should rule the day and i understand that perfectly. when can we get back to a more normal capital type strategy? we are going to see that the role of banks in helping the world recover from this tremendous shock is largely blown through, we could all speculate how that is going to be -- how long that is going to be, and we will see that the ability to turn to normal by the end of this year, but the

economic challenge will carry on for years. i don't think that means we wait for years before we can manage our capital. we have to let the dust settle a little. i understand the demands on bank balance sheets and i understand what the crisis has been. i hope we get clarity toward the end of the year or early next year, given the pandemic, i hesitate to offer a forecast. shery: is there something western governments can learn from the response in some asian countries? i don't know how you think our western governments are doing, and how they could do better. booksthere will be written analyzing what we could have done differently, what we as businesses could have done differently, could have forecast, things governments could have done, but i find it interesting listening to the debate now that we in the west,

u.k. or u.s., could not have done what the chinese date because we don't have that kind didociety -- chinese because we don't have that kind of society. we are doing with the chinese did, but are doing it too late, and are depriving people what are considered basics of liberty only weeks ago. >> 3, 2, 1. [laughter]

♪ taylor: we want to check with markets along with oil markets, and again in the thursday session in new york translating into weakness for the futures market. we are going to wait and see if some of the optimism continues overseas, australia opening 1.5 percent followed by new zealand --t .8%, singapore futures what goes up8%, goes down, you have futures

rolling over just a little, poised to open a little lower overall on friday, starting to get a lot of up and down days. we are starting to sift through how much economic damages temporary versus permanent. looking at the board, one thing that feels permanent is the price of oil, holding a $24 or so. in oil pricesjump thursday in new york after the president tweeted he seemed to get saudi arabia under pressure on board with cutting oil production by 10 million barrels to 50 million barrels a day or so. as we open oil trading again, the markets trying to assess how accurate they may be. the u.s.eadline, unveiled loan guidance for small businesses hurt by the virus. the small business association is set to open loans starting at

midnight in new york. there has been tons of confusion about what is going on, how small businesses can go to banks, how the loans will work. we are getting a few more details now from the government on the paycheck protection program and will bring you more headlines as we get them. italy is one of the hardest hit by the coronavirus in terms of infections, deaths, and economic damage. the e.u. commissioner for economic and financial affairs says each month of lockdown in italy will hit the economy. lesse lockdown is more or producing 3% negative growth each month. this doesn't mean that dr. the lockdown will finish, -- that after the lockdown will finish, that the rebound will be immediate. taylor: general atlantic senior

advisor michael spence says a v-shaped recovery is unlikely. he spoke to bloomberg from the lawn. michael: we are lying low, staying at home and only going out for essential things like going to the supermarket. are careful, you can probably stay safe. that is what we end most of our friends are doing. taylor: is there a sense of how and when things can go back to normal, and what normal looks like? mike: until recently we haven't had much sense of that because we didn't know how effective and when the lockdown would produce the desired effect. as you mentioned, we are seeing preliminary evidence that the lockdown is working to slow the spread of the virus, but we have

a ways to go. we are one case in the medical system, especially as northern italy is overwhelmed. so we have a ways to go before we get the rate of new critical cases down to a point that we can even consider a transition to a different regime. what i was talking about in the article -- go ahead. ahead, michael. say at: i was going to some point, the cost of keeping schools closed for a long time and the cost of keeping businesses from tailing that don't have customers now, restaurants, hotels, airlines, they get so high that you have to think through how you restart the economy.

justrong way to do it is declare victory and stop the lockdown. you need to carefully tailored that thend tracking world health organization and pretty much the entire medical establishment are saying is what we need, to deal with the virus when we get the numbers down to a certain point. things exactly the same you need to get the economy going. right now on the street, everybody represents the same risk. we need to transition to a regime where, when we go on the street, people think the reason that person is out here is that they are certified to be in a low-risk category, because we were talking the high-risk ones and treating and isolating them as needed. so the prescriptions for how to

get out of this in a sensible way from a health point of view of a goodortant part and relatively rapid economic recovery. taylor: does that mean it is going to be a slow opening up of the economy that we will be testing workers that will then be left to go back to work, go back to stores, go back to buy stuff, as that the prescription you are laying out? michael: yeah, but it applies to the demand side to. right now if the government said the lockdown is over, i don't see people rushing out to go to a restaurant. some will, but the majority will say that is way too risky. so the program is to systematically, in a labor-intensive process, reduce the risk for buyers and workers

at the same time. that was general atlantic senior advisor michael spence speaking with bloomberg. that numbers out of europe show the rate of the virus infection in italy slowed after three weeks of lockdown, the number of deaths rising again to 760. spain and france are seeing a rise in for tallies. let's get the latest from our reporter in hong kong. we are still seeing some of these deadliest days in places like spain. correspondent: the spain health ministry reports 950 deaths in the latest 24 hours, the most since the outbreak again. italy reached 13,915. say 5387 deaths here.

this political tally, a horrible figure of one million people and suggesting there would be an end in sight in it is expected that nations will provide liquidity for companies, that could happen later today. this is a debate over the so-called corona bonds, if you will, something the dutch and germans are dead against, as opposed to the italian and spanish and french. but if they do issue their own , it is raising concern in the debt markets of a rask -- markets obey mass exodus -- exodus by a mass investors, and that could be seen by some as stigmatizing

that country. ramp upre pledging to coronavirus testing to 100,000 per day in u.k., but that is less than half of that touted by his boss boris johnson. the health secretary is seeking to show the government is in control of the situation, because reports in the british media criticize ministers for doing too little too late in tackling the pandemic people are -- the pandemic. people are suggesting the national health service is unable to test the population, so there is not much like that the end of the tunnel. taylor: lockdowns continued to be deepened, russia extending orders for people to stay at home. what is going on there. haad: president vladimir a exnding his order to keep people locked down

until at least the end of the month, and he warned the spread of the pathogen has not yet peaked. they have a spread in moscow and have not managed to get the situation under control. that is coming from the russian leader. he said he is giving additional authority to regional leaders to get the lockdown done properly. elsewhere in europe, ports are going to be closed on the ninth of april. there are limits of passengers .n flights here in hong kong, we have in order that says bars and clubs have to close for two weeks. as of today, the city reported 37 new cases for totaling hong kong of 802. that is what we are as governments desperately try to stop the spread of this disease.

taylor: bloomberg markets coanchor rishaad salamat in hong kong. a quick check of first word headlines. hasfed balance sheet expanded a record $5.8 trillion as policymakers continue to purchase treasuries and mortgage backed securities. this scale is already dwarfing programs the fed took in the wake of the financial crisis a decade ago. new warnings that the u.s. is entering a sharper recession. some economists say gdp is headed for its worst decline in quarterly records going back to 1947. restrictions on movement have stalled the economy, with all projections expecting a severe gdp fall in the second quarter. however, forecasters see a rebound in the letter six months of the year. ♪ the captain of one of america's

top warships as been relieved of command as he appealed for -- after he appealed for help as the coronavirus swept his ship. the captain asked for his superiors to let suspected patients on his aircraft carrier off the plane immediately. as hisnow been replaced leadership is question. and oil sort on both sides of the atlantic for president trump suggested he has the key to resolving a standoff between saudi arabia and russia. the president spoke to leaders in riyadh and moscow and said he expects a solution can be found and that he would intervene if necessary. the kingdom is now calling for urgent talks between opec and its independent allies. next, beijingup and washington trading verbal blows over the extent of the viral outbreak in china.

this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ >> there is no question that had china been more forthcoming about the impact and scope and

nature of the coronavirus, not just to the united states, but to the world, that it would have made a different. taylor: vice president mike pence speaking to us earlier, but china is rejecting a u.s. intelligence report that it concealed the extent of the coronavirus outbreak. in turn, beijing is accusing washington of shifting blame for its handling of the pandemic. let's bring in lowy institute research fellow natasha kassem. great to have you. please explain how china is rewriting the history of the coronavirus and more importantly, why no one is stopping it. for chinese authorities, the covid-19 --break reports to a risk the covid-19 outbreak is a risk to chinese leadership. in the early days of the crisis, there was a focus on covering up

missteps, blaming failures on local governments and demonstrating decisive action the central government was taking. but that was very much a domestic message. it was countering scrutiny at home. the shift that we now see in china's messaging is the country abouts from the crisis is a key message for a broader audience, which is that they bought the world time to prepare for the pandemic, the virus may not have originated in china, that theory is getting airtime, and that china can help people wear their governments are unable to. that is the way the narrative is shifting. it is too early to say how successful that will be, but the success of china's rewriting of history will depend on how washington handles the crisis. but all these other countries are so deep in their own crises now, and in many cases not doing

a good job, they are simply not in a position to combat that message from china. taylor: let's assume we all get through the immediate danger. we come out of this. what is the prescription on your end to analyze how this happened and how china was able to control the narrative? it is going to be difficult to ever know what happened. the americans and others are saying china concealed numbers, and are looking at proxy measures to assess the true extent of casualties in wuhan and elsewhere in china. twohat, there are questions, the numbers and the concealment. there are numbers -- there is a difference between numbers deliberately faked for the rest of the world and then a country

struggling to gather information on a virus that was spreading quickly and that we knew almost nothing about. so deliberate underreporting, bed numbers are always underreported in china to protect their national image. and for the reasons we mentioned, that is quite unlikely because china wants to play up its successes compared to struggles in the west. but i also don't think chinese officials could have known the extent of the outbreak, and even now we are seeing local officials being instructed to not hide cases. but they know they are expected to ensure they don't have outbreaks again. any outbreak in any area brings huge political risks for officials, so it will be difficult for us to ever know what happened. and it does seem, based on behavior rather than what chinese officials are saying, that china is doing better and that we can see life returning

to some level of normal in china. it is hard to see how we will ever be able to go back and understand what happened, given the lack of transparency in china. we have lines crossing bloomberg from the people's bank of china. pb seo -- pboc officials are calling for global policy cooperation, according to a publication from "the china daily," so we will continue watching for details on what looksolicy cooperation like. you are giving credibility to the middle-of-the-road assumption that there was underreporting, that changes in methodology work confusing. having said that, we are still learning about the disease and the way infections happen, four months after it materialized in --wuhan.

it would have taken a massive underreporting, given that we know there is a robust online population in china that has been critical throughout this. i agree. we have seen a huge upsurge of people willing to criticize the government in china. although the sensor set machine is so effective, we have seen it struggle during this crisis, and the rest of the world has more insight into how many people in anda are on the ground, there are so many alleged coverups in china and we did find out about them because of journalists and because people find creative ways to express themselves online. i do believe the numbers are underreported, but i believe it is because a lot of people, when

they showed up at the hospital, health systems were overwhelmed and many people died at home without having been diagnosed or had any contact with the medical profession. if it was much, much larger than that, we would have found out. in some measures people are not pointing to of evidence -- as evidence of the concealment, i think are not credible. there has been reporting on the number of urns delivered for ashes in wuhan, but you have to account for all the people during that time that would have died anyway. another measure that doesn't make sense is the number of mobile phone numbers taken off-line. and it is really common in china, like other countries, for people to have multiple same cards in multiple numbers. i don't think that those proxy measures are very reliable. we have been healthily

cautious when it comes to data out of china, whether it be gdp or retail sales are now coronavirus numbers. i'm wondering on the other of this, what does china's standing look like on the world stage, with the proliferation of this theories, andacy the tendency to turn away from globalization and diversify away from exposure to the chinese economy? are they going to end up on a worse footing? natasha: it is not helpful to say it is too early to say, but my prediction would be not. many countries are now turning to china for medical supplies, emergency relief, particularly developing countries. we have seen china take significant steps in the pacific islands, africa, to prepare for

outbreaks in their countries. that answers how china is thinking outside its borders to have a lasting effect. so you will see larger countries, developed economies, thinking more about manufacturing. haidi: we will have to leave it there. thank you for joining us, low we institute of research fellow -- lowy institute of research fellow, thank you. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ haidi: let's get a quick check of his this flash headlines. electric, the coronavirus is at the eight -- is ravaging the aviation industry. engine manufacturing and other assembly will be suspended for about four weeks, this is the company plans to cut

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history vault, reading corner and many others. for more information on how you can stay connected, visit xfinity.com/prepare. ♪ taylor: good evening. japan and south korea have just opened for trade. welcome to daybreak asia. this hour, let's get you up to date. the coronavirus pandemic hits one people in fact -- one million people infected with 50,000 having died. washington keeps up the pressure on beijing, saying earlier virus

information would have helped. we hear from mike pence this hour. president trump jolts the bond markets by saying he has the key for resolving the price war between saudi arabia and russia. taylor: let's get a check on the markets. we want to start with japan just opening up for trade. the nikkei was setback for its biggest loss. start of that turning around a little bit. with on the back foot here plenty of options. those are expiring. you are getting dollar strength relative to yen weakness. traditional safe havens coming off of it. you are getting a small jolt here. i continue to be surprised to see the 10 year at 0%. program.d buying take a look at how things are

opening up in korea. a second weekly gain now. the korean won is among the biggest laggards in asia. some dollar weakness relative to the korean won. you had the vice finance sayingr this morning sentiment for bond markets has partially improved. they are continuing to look at steps to stabilize some of these financial markets. the focus continues to be on short-term money market funds and corporate bonds as well. look at how things are doing over in australia. the asx is being led higher by the energy sector. rallying as much as 10%. its biggest gain since october of 2008. the aussie dollar holding for a three-day decline. that's ahead of retail sales. you are seeing aussie dollar strength now relative to u.s. dollar weakness. byo getting a lift up to about four basis points or so.

you have yield curve steepening ahead of the tenure auction. that will be the first set sail in two months. let's pull it all back. and take a look at where we are in the u.s.. a great day in thursday trading. futures losing some of the gains that we saw. we are off 3/10 of 1%. the bloomberg dollar index mostly unchanged. 10 year yields getting a small lift up in fields. brent crude coming urinalysis at the top of the show on oil hit it spot on. all the markets are fully looking at the wti and the brent crude market on any signs that those production cuts and the tweets we got from the president may come to fruition. let's talk about how this will play into market sentiments. margaret yang joins us now. i want to pick up on where --

all eyes on this developing oil story. of board call -- cold water on expectations that a deal would be made. if there is a resolution for output, how much of a benefit is that for equity markets? margaret: equity markets would definitely get a boost by rising oil prices overnight. we saw the u.s. energy sector rebounded overnight. that's the best-performing sector yesterday. however, i don't think that these uptrends in crude oil can last for very long and very significantly because it is uneasy for russia and saudi to reach a deal. if they could reach an output cut agreement, they would have done it in march. there must be some debt log between these two parties --

deadlock between these two parties. serious negotiation is needed to resolve this problem. joined oil u.s. industry needs to give some kind of concession. these three parties need to join the agreement to have a significant impact on markets. on the other side, global demand is falling sharply. the oil tankers are probably going to run out of space. that is causing a deep tangle in the oil futures curve. the november contract is trading at a much higher premium over the june contract in both of uti and brent. -- wti and brent. shortage of oil tank to store the oversupplied oil. this could be a technical rebound in oil. unless we see a material

improvement in the fundamental picture. i want to throw up some charts inrt -- these terms of looking at where you may want to invest in terms of the sectors and industries arranged from most exposed to the coronavirus to least. let's go through some. no surprises in terms of what these usual suspect areas are. airlines, auto suppliers. tesla and ev's would be a separate category. hospitality come oil and gas unless we have a resolution on the oversupply issue. of course, global shipping. moderates, property developers, metals and mining, that depends on a recovery in china. still chemicals has been a favorite for some of our guests as well.

finally coming getting to the chart that shows low exposure. these are some favorites for least exposed. i.t. services, construction and engineering, telecom, media. i'm wondering what your favorites are in terms of companies that not just have low downside exposure to the pandemic lockdown but actually potential upside exposure, not just through the next lockdown period but out the other side of this with sustainable fundamentals. margaret: i think that's a fantastic question. we feel that the coronavirus pandemic may last for an of time, sixod months or 12 months or 24 months. the technology sector is likely to outperform because people are spending more time on their computers, on their mobile phones.

entertainment, and travel leisure sectors will be under pressure. companies, those group of strategic importance to countries like singapore airlines, they are well backed by the government because they are just too important to fail. those companies will have some government support and are likely to bankrupt -- aren't likely to bankrupt. when it comes to technology on google, bullish apple. they are not only benefiting from this pandemic as people are shifting more online. reserves huge cash to retains them able their staff, develop the

technology and able to connect -- conduct m&a activities in the market comes to the bottom. they have the cash to purchase smaller companies for their future growth. those technology companies could -- with huge calf -- cash reserves are in a much better situation comparing to the brick-and-mortar sectors. in singapore, right now the and grocery store companies are showing resilience . commercial and retail rates are being heavily sold off. we will see a rental reversion and rental cuts of those sectors being badly hurt by covid-19. care names are outperforming. hear youascinating to

talk about companies with big cash reserves. i'm here in new york. we punish companies who are holding big cash reserves. we want them to do dividends or share buybacks. did you take a look at your asian world, how are you thinking about companies now with cash on the balance sheets? is there a similar pressure for dividends or share buybacks? could we see companies who are reporting cash now starting to outperform? margaret: those technology companies, even though they are cash rich, they are not very generous in giving dividends. investors are not putting hope on dividend payout. lucky for's pretty the technologies to own a huge pile of cash right now. withstand thiso heckling and won't have credit

trouble when we enter into a deleveraging cycle. companies,f those their leverage ratio is extremely low. their cash and fx is higher than their debt. they have little that. when we come to a key -- deleveraging cycle, they are less affected by the credit issues. other high leverage companies are at a disadvantage situation. i think the tech groups are going to outperform the other sectors in the mid-to long-term. taylor: that was cmc market analyst margaret yang. we want to get you individual stock movers in tokyo. softbank is one of them. they abandoned we work investors. they earlier agreed to buy shares from the x ceo. he has been pushed out of our

billionaire range given that softbank is not going ahead with this. they hinted that they will be talking with some of their lawyers to really look at this. softbank certainly getting a lift on this news. toshiba as well as making markets. toshiba said that it had a reported reply for a listing today. up at one point by 7%. supply waser it listed on tokyo's main board. honda said they were going to look at reopening some of their factories now in will. that had been shut down really given it was the ground zero -- the outbreak here for the coronavirus. the games play on for e-sports. we speak to the ceo of super league gaming later this hour.

pence vice president mike tries to ease concerns about u.s. coronavirus testing. a surge in unemployment claims. our interview with the ve -- bp is next. this is bloomberg. ♪

taylor: a clarification on toshiba. said that they were looking to apply for a real estate on the tokyo stock exchange. we are getting reports that toshiba is saying that they have not applied for that listing at this time. we will continue to bring you all of these reports as they come. haidi: let's get the latest when it comes to the coronavirus outbreak. worldwide cases have reached a total of more than one million infections and counting. our chief north asia correspondent stephen engle

joins us out of hong kong. this is a bleak milestone we have hit four months after the virus first made itself known in china. stephen: that's right. it is such a quick spreading of this coronavirus. we are seeing now, the united states continues to be the biggest source of infection, the epicenter. nearly 23.6% of all those cases are in the united states. u.s. has 238,820, three times china's reported numbers. nearly a quarter of all the world cases. the numbers are grim. italy, 115,000 cases now. spain, 112,000 cases. germany, 84000 and counting. all of those countries have more cases than what china has reported at 82,000. new york state has more cases

the china has reported. reported inections the state of new york in the last 24 hours. at this current rate, the state says it has about six days left before running out of its stockpile of ventilators. about 350 cases per night need ventilation. the state says it has 2200 ventilators stockpiles. that is becoming a very critical time frame, six days. speaking of which, the president has issued an order using that korean air -- korean war era defense act, the defense production act, to speed up production across the country of ventilators. he's been found take -- facing mounting pressure to use that act to get the states and hospitals much-needed supplies. taylor: we are hearing about more restrictions in hong kong.

what we know? stephen: they have seen a secondary wave of infections, now up to 802. another 3070 cases in the last 24 hours. 30 of those 37 had orders -- oversee travel. the government has ordered bars and pubs to close completely for 14 days starting tonight at 6:00. the food and health secretary here says more than half of the 132 locally transmitted cases between march 19 and april 1 had visited bars recently. she called those establishments very high risk, including one of the newest infections in a six-week-old baby who had been taken to a pub. that was an impetus for the government closing down those establishments. one of the new indications out of china, nearly four out of five people recently tested in china have no signs of

infection. this being reported by the bmj journal citing china's national health commission. that stokes concern about the numbers of silent carriers. taylor: chief north asia correspondent stephen engle. vice president mike pence told bloomberg that more than 100,000 americans are being tested daily for coronavirus. the government tries to ramp up its lagging response to the outbreak. you is thatn tell because of the public-private partnership we forged with these vast commercial labs that your missionaries -- listeners know well, we are now testing over 100,000 americans a day. but a very significant breakthrough happened this weekend. speed,moving with record the fda approved abbott

laboratories point of care test. it literally is a 15 minute test that people can have administered at their local doctor's office. we are in the process of thousands ofhe avid laboratory machines that are around the country. we're making sure that we are distributing those, not just to areas that are seeing an impact today, but we want to distribute those. they are making 50,000 tests a day now. we want to distribute those areas where we can do what you testing surveillance that would allow states that currently don't have a significant outbreak to be forewarned and forearmed and p able to do the contact tracing that would limit the exposure and spread of the coronavirus. the last point is in answer to the other part of your question. we literally are tracking every

cases day the number of that are coming out, where they're coming out. we have already received a briefing this morning county by county, state-by-state analysis. that is informing our coronation -- coordination. not only with the strategic national stockpile but with health care distributors around the country, about where we are sendingourcing and everything, all the supplies are health care workers need. we are focusing where the brakes are. we're working closely with governors to support the request , whether it be for personal protective equipment or field hospitals. we will continue to do that around the clock. >> let's talk about the personal protective equipment and ventilators. you are coordinating and encouraging. is there consideration being giving -- given to centralizing

the allocation of these? government -- states are having to bidding against each other. should we have a central location? it would be under uf the task force to decide where they go. signed the president national disaster declaration a few weeks ago, he stood up fema as the alize cornet to of our nation's -- lead court nader of our nation's response. fema has been working through its regional administrators and governors to process requests not just from the national stockpile but we are also working with distributors around the country. we are directing them in many cases where we need that personal protective equipment to go. we established with the president an air bridge. it will be about 51 flights from all over the world bringing in supplies for health care

workers. we already were wheels down sunday at jfk, monday in chicago. we were landing in miami last night. those flights are going to continue to come in literally around the clock. what we are doing their is we are taking -- there is we are taking 19% -- 90% directly to the need where hospital workers are requesting personal protective equipment. use theway that we can strength of the private sectors distribution system and the direction of our logistics team at fema to meet this moment. as we track the initial outbreak, the seattle area, washington state, then california. is the epicenter and -- greater new york city area. we are working with distributors

to bring the supplies and, increase production here at home , and directing them to where they are needed most. that was the vice president of the united states speaking with us. plenty more to come on different asia. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: reliance industries has one board approval to raise more than $3 billion through non-convertible ventures. the company says it will seek placementprivate basis. agreement would have helped but it halted as oil collapse.

exxon mobil has lost its top credit rating from ladies after the agency said the collapse of oil prices makes cash flows even worse. the rating comes down to aa one, the second-highest from aaa and the outlook is negative. exxon is unlikely to regain the top rating over the medium-term even if prices recover. the downgrade follows a similar move. taylor: sticking on some of those oil markets. you are seeing crude repair some of the big surge that they had on thursday. this comes after trump has said to be eyeing a global oil cut of 10 million barrels a day. he says he's working with saudi arabia and russia to work on that. will continue to monitor that. still ahead on bloomberg television, renewable energy companies turning to maskmaking. we speak exclusively to the founder and ceo of envision group.

opportunities in wind and digital energy. this is bloomberg.

haidi: we are getting the latest retail sales numbers crossing the bloomberg for australia. , a beat retail sales for that month on month number. 0.5% gain when we were looking at a survey of expectations. it does bounce back from a horrible january. inhad that 0.2% contraction january. out --wharton to point important to point out we had a rebound from the bushfires but

what is to come is an increasingly broad and national shutdown of nonessential businesses. most retailers across the country have either closed or are only trading online. this is a good rating for february. a modest be. for march, those numbers will be increasingly more horrible. taylor: speaking of relatively good numbers, wanted to take a look at hong kong's pmi data we're getting. 34.9,coming in at a that's better than the prior number of a 33.1. a small improvement here for hong kong pmi's coming in at 34.9. that's relative to the prior month in february of 33.1. it's not doing well in singapore. their march pmi is falling to a record low of 33.3 that is down from february at 47. we are seeing that drop down from 47 to a 33.3 in march.

finally, japan is getting some final numbers that are coming in as well. a small improvement on the total composite side. the march reading is a 36.2. that's better than february with 35.8. the services number also coming in slightly improved as well. 33.8 relative to the previous month at 32.7. a mixed picture with singapore looking to bear most of the front of this. we are seeing small improvements here within the hong kong pmi numbers. let's get more on those australian retail sales numbers. su-lin ong. events have really overtaken the usefulness of the data points that we are getting. we know that february was meant

to see a recovery. we saw that in the numbers. how debt -- how bad does it get for march given the national shutdown su-lin: -- shutdown? su-lin: the data is dated. nevertheless, the split when we look at some of the components of retail sales give us a sense of what we might see in the month of march. retail sales and total growth at 5.5%. there was a strong increase for food retailing. it is a key component of overall retail sales. 40% of total retail. that's likely to reflect increased expenditure, particularly in supermarkets. you can see as well some weakness in discretionary spending, cafes, restaurants, take away in the month of february and other retailing as well. we are starting to see early signs of what the virus and social distancing measures are having on retail sales.

stills -- we will see much more of it in march and april when much stronger social distancing measures came into play. particularly the shutdown of nonessential retail. it will be interesting to see what will happen. i expect again in march we will see significant strength in food retailing, supermarkets in particular. we are seeing bigger falls in the likes of catholic -- cafes and restaurants. it will be a mixed picture. overall, we are expecting to see more weaknesses going into the months ahead as social distancing measures come into full force. i'm curious how you are modeling the medium-term and longer-term expectations of what the potential recovery looks like.

is it and i'll shape in the sense that some output and productivity is really lost permanently? what is your best case assumption? that socialcertain distancing measures will be in place for 90 days at the middle. -- minimum. su-lin: a lot of the focus is on what the economy in the past has looked like when we come out of all this. i don't think there's any dispute we are in recession at the moment. the question is the depth and duration. the discussion around, is a v-shaped or u-shaped is the right discussion. it's really about the trajectory of growth on the other side. at the moment, the way we see things is that it's probably -- we think in terms of the reverse pick. the best way to describe that is the first half of this year,

especially q2. we think we will get a little bit of a bounce back and recovery later in the year as the social distancing measures are lifted. you look at it it of pent-up demand around late q3 and q4. we will see a bit of a bounce in activity. the same for us. we also think that growth will be fairly modest thereafter. stronger activity later in the year will not be sustained. we say that for two reasons. it is a fairly subdued outlook. australia was actually pretty weak going into 2020. growth was subject. -- sub trend. there's a reason the reserve bank cut rates last year. it was a soft economy to start. a number of structural headwinds, elevated levels of household debt, low productivity, all of that will

still be there when we come out the other end. we expect that to hamper the recovery and the pace of growth. that will especially be the case when up limit levels have abated as well. it's a reversed tech. a big drop in output but it recovers, a bounce, and fairly modest growth after that. we don't think we get back to pre-covid output levels until well beyond 2021. taylor: here in the u.s., we just passed the third stimulus package. we are eyeing the fourth and fifth already. it is clear that the third package was not enough. i translate that over into australian. are the fiscal packages you have seen enough? su-lin: we've had three fiscal packages in australia, each larger than the last.

in particular, the third package , very large package. $130 billion. that's about 6.5% of gdp. quantity,o much the while anonymous. it's probably the quality of measures. of all the three packages, we argue that the quality of this one was probably the best and has been fairly impactful in the economy. it will go some way in tempering the expected rise in the anaplan it rate over the next few months. the introduction of a wage subsidy, a variation of some of the other similar measures around the globe, tailored more for us trillions. -- australians. we think it will be hopeful. will it be enough? there's quite a lot of stimulus in the cistern at the commonwealth level. the last package, the measures were particularly good. it looks to be enough for now as

all those measures flow through. i would make the additional observation that the state in australia are also delivering fiscal stimulus. a lot of it very much targeted at businesses. that will be helpful. we know as well that if it's not enough, if the virus takes a turn for the worse, if australia has additional issues as they go into the southern hemisphere winter, authorities will step up as needed. at this juncture, probably enough. the door will remain open to further support if needed. economist andief head of australian and -- research. i want to bring you headlines. after theysing 70% are making a compound for a flu treatment. it is being touted as a potential coronavirus treatment after receiving a request from the japanese government.

they will start producing a compound that is typically used for flu treatment after a request by the japanese government to help solve the coronavirus. stocks clearly rising across the board. coming up next, sports leagues around the world are being canceled. e-sports continue to operate. -- bel be disagreed week speaking to super league gaming incorporated chairman and ceo. this is bloomberg. ♪

haidi: watching daybreak asia. let's get you the latest first word headlines. .e are watching the coronavirus global infections have top one million. the latest figures say 50,000 people have become -- succumbed to covid-19 so far. we see it within 20 nations of the -- only 20 nations in the world remain free. the u.s. has the most reported cases at more than 230,000. shutdowns and supply chain disruptions from the virus have pushed u.s. jobless claims to a record. more than 6.6 million people apply for an employment benefits in the last week. that is more than double the total for the week before.

the numbers come one day before the u.s. official payroll numbers. they are expected to show a monthly decline for the first time since 2010. the fed's response to the coronavirus fallout has been -- seen the balance sheet expand to a record. total assets rose more than $532 billion in the week through april 1 with the scale dropping the program in the wake of the financial crisis. markets were jolted on both sides of the atlantic mr. president from suggest that he has the key to resolving the standoff. the president has spoken to leaders in riyadh and moscow in the past two days, saying he things a solution to be found and he would intervene if necessary. the kingdom is calling for urgent talks between opec and its independent allies. taylor: the coronavirus is

having a huge impact on the world of e-sports. events being postponed and leaks moved online. there are also some positive. our next guests viewership has spiked in the past few weeks. 100,000 new registrations. setting records online. joining us now from los angeles is an hand -- ann hand. great to have you. interesting to see the number of increased users that you are seeing. how do you expect to turn that into increased revenue and profit in the coming months? ann: yeah, absolutely. we have seen a 20% increase in our user base doing much. that compares to a 7% increase on the prior month. seenu mentioned, we have the current march numbers, over 200,000 new users on our platform. it was exciting for us. we are able to really solve a

different way for people staying connected. gaming has a lot of social and community building. it translates into revenues to full. more players engaging in the league, pushing their game three through it. more opportunities to monetize the gamers themselves. we have all kinds of ways for them to upgrade their gaming experience. there is a direct to consumer angle. the more people that we have engaging the platform, that widens our eyeballs and inventory. right now, when you see how much advertisers are struggling with a lot of canceled events and activations to redirect those marketing dollars and reach people, especially that elusive millennial gamer right where they are around the passion of the game they love, we offer a marketing channel for them. taylor: i spent six months in san francisco. i was shocked at the increase pressure on a lot of these startups to turn a profit. to translate that revenue growth

and the bottom line growth as well. you have gone public in a volatile environment. what has it been like, being public in this environment? what has been the increasing pressure to start to turn a profit? ann: it's a great point. we launched the company on nasdaq over a year ago. , we are a microcap company. we thought that there was a lot of thurston desire for the public markets to participate in e-sports. being a guy in title and location agnostic company, wide range of gamers we speak to. you can play in all kinds of locations. most important right now, you can play from the comfort of your home. that said, absolutely. small-cap, it is tough. they want to see not only that quicker topline growth but also that path to break even and profitability. we pointed the investors last

year to some essential kpi's. if you believe we are doing this these,nd we meet or beat the revenue streams will inevitably flow. no different than the way that facebook really focused on user acquisition out of the gate. we were able to material beat those kpi's. we have looked at 2020 as the year of modernization for the company. in these dire circumstances that we are in, we always knew that gaming was somewhat recession resilient. the explosive growth that we are already seeing in the last 30 days, the pretty significant increase in our advertising sponsorship pipeline is telling us that we have a real opportunity or window here. gaming is already bigger than tv. it is three times the global film box office. if people are isolating at home, their enthusiasm and interpersonal engagement in

gaming will continue. how much retention of these numbers we're seeing from working from home, from self-isolation, how much of that will be retained once we get out of the pandemic immediate threat? ann: i mean, it's interesting. in some ways, these are very sticky customers. i don't expect to see these levels dropped off. if anything, we are getting to critical mass here. we have over one million kids right now, 500,000 monthly unique's playing in our youth digital form. week, we just hit the highest number of viewership ever on our instagram and tiktok channels. we heard -- hit 30,000 views in the market -- 30 million views

in the much of march. here's a hard reality. live sports as we know it is over for now. for some kind of undefined time, whether it is your high school tennis team or wimbledon, whether it is a pickup basketball game or the nba season, there's not a lot of ways for people to connect anymore with live sports. yet there is one that emerges. that is that notion of the one sport that is ritual, competitive video gaming. personal --s at the professional level or the ways i can now help the youth soccer league across america, or maybe help a professional league connect to their fan base. are gamers and they are not growing out of it. competitive gaming done safely at home can be a way to create connectivity for those kinds of sports fans and for those

advertiser dollars, even at a time when they can't get out and play the other sports that they love. how real is a concern about addiction or government oversight about this? ann: that's always been a huge tenant for us from the earliest days of our brand promise. a very family-friendly brand. we have a pretty high line on sportsmanship and code of conduct that we enforce. our youth product has always been couple compliant and is beloved by parents. it's a safe gaming forum. parents are allowed to create private service for their kids and control who is being invited into that server. you think about right now, the 12th, 14-year-old who wants to stay connected to their friends or on their neighborhood block.

we have different porters -- portals as a way for them to stay safe. you know exactly who your kids are playing with. great to have you on with us again. super league gaming chairman and ceo. let's take a look ahead. we will be assessing the impact of the coronavirus and the impact on the indian tech sector. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ china starbucks rival stocks plunged more than 80% after the company said it is investigating claims of fabricated sales. su keenan has the developing story. we are talking about hundreds of dollars in sales. [inaudible] filing, they are questioning 310 million sales. that's a large amount. the filing shows that the engaged in what they are saying was an appropriate conduct.

they said that certain expenses were also substantially inflated by fabricated transactions during the same time. that's a quote from the filing. verify onors did not withthere was any problem the actual numbers but said that they are looking into them. again, if you look at the chart, there was a decline, 81% drop of trading. close, all of that had closed down 26%. it is the biggest one-day drop in the company's history. it was a very successful ipo in may of last year. you had pretty big hedge funds involved. haidi: the players in this, two

well-known short-sellers have been going head-to-head on twitter about this. what is the latest drama there? su: that is what is fascinating. you have to well-known short-sellers that engage in a feud on twitter about the company packaging rate. you had muddy waters capitals ceo. he came out on top. [inaudible] dinner 31st, he tweeted that he had a short after receiving an thatributed report indicated that there were some alleged accounting issues and that it was a broken business model. a manurs later, you had coming out in defending the claiming that his

business was on fire in china. fast forward what we have going on now. clearly, muddy waters came out on top. in any event, there will be more to come on this one. back to you. taylor: su keenan in new york. before we handed over to bloomberg markets the china open , let's get you a look at how markets are trading at the moment. we are seeing japan's nikkei figures, upside there. 7% of 1%. south korea, the cost be holding its head above water. asx now falling into negative territory. despite a retail sales beat for the much of february. taylor: coming up, we will have more insight on moss but that market prospects with wendy lou.

that's it from daybreak asia. our markets coverage continues as we look ahead to the start of trade in hong kong. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ reachedm milestone is in the coronavirus pandemic, one million people have been infected worldwide. 50,000 have died. >> president trump jumps the oil markets -- jolts the oil markets by saying he has the key to a fight between saudi arabia and russia. he may even intervene. >> a bitter taste for shareholders as the company admitted