tv Whatd You Miss Bloomberg April 3, 2020 4:00pm-5:00pm EDT
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you, kevin. as you just said, the bank of america in particular has really stepped in and done a fantastic job. bank of america has been unbelievable. i want to thank them. i want to thank all the community banks and the smaller banks that have been loaning a lot of money. paycheck. it is all about the paycheck. nobody would have believed it would have gone so well. romaine: we were just listening to donald trump at the white house, meeting with executives, talking about energy markets. trump saying he is going to get the energy business back up. they are also going to discuss the impact of the virus on the oil industry. week whenn amazing you put it into context of what we saw in the oil markets. we had that monster rally early in the week. we had that tweet out of president trump yesterday that some sort of deal would be
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brokered. weekrude about 13% on the but we can't go without pointing out we are down about 50% on the year. the dow, the nasdaq, the s&p down roughly 1.5% on the day. the big decline or is really the russell 2000. a lot of concerns about what the smaller and mid-cap companies are going to fair. we also saw a selloff in the financial space. the bank index down about 4.8% on the week. we should also point out, on the weekly gains and losses, the only three sectors that managed to close with gains this week was energy, consumer staples, and health care. also up about 2%, scarlet. scarlet: it is interesting how we've seen the gains that initially came at the open disappear pretty quickly.
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for all the talk that the data is backwards looking, the fact that it is friday and we have so much uncertainty i had of us with worsening numbers presumably means that investors don't want to be long heading into a weekend. now all eyes are looking towards the opec conference call on monday. certainly there a lot priced into oil right now on some kind of coordination to reduce production by perhaps 10 million barrels per day. inaine: let's bring gabriella. when we start to look forward hear, not necessarily in financial markets, but just to get a better sense of where the economy is going, is a little bit too presumptuous to start
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trying to find what that bottom would be in the economy, in the markets, when we don't really know how the data is going to shake out. we don't know how the earnings data is going to look. when do we get to a stage that we can be a little more comfortable and be confident that those projections are going to be sound? >> indeed, it is very difficult to make projections looking forward. especially for the next six to eight months before we truly get back to normal life. and i think that is especially true because indeed we don't quite yet have the full picture in terms of economic data, but crucially because we are talking first and foremost, it is all being driven by a health crisis. and we don't quite know how that picture will shake out either. there's a temptation to want to talk about shape.
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right now a lot of possibilities are on the table. we do need to be a little bit patient and see how the health issue involves before we can really be confident about the economic picture. one thing i will say because it is friday is that a lot of the fiscal and monetary response has been incredibly proactive and at least it takes some of the worst outcomes off the table. so at least there we can have a little comfort. but we still need more visibility going forward. scarlet: as we wait for that visibility, we are looking for the dollar continuing to strengthen. this week it is back to gaining once again. what does the dollar strength mean for the attractiveness, the appeal of the overseas markets. i'm thinking asia in particular where they've seen the worst of the pandemic and perhaps our
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earlier than us and getting their economy back to normal. >> absolutely. the first thing i always look at in the morning is the dollar. it tells us about risk appetite. and second, there have been some stresses over the past few weeks in dollar markets. it also tells us a little bit about the plumbing of the financial system. and recently it has settled in a little bit more, so it tells us that some of the initiatives the fed has been taking in terms of helping to that is bring the dollar down. but it is still rising a bit. risk appetite is still low here over the next few weeks. but we are starting to see more of that e.m. asia, especially international overall, and
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really markets that are set to probably rebound before the u.s. does here. scarlet: all right, sit tight for a second. we want to bring back in taylor riggs, who has another look at the weekend the day in markets. just going to say this is a day and a week that we all want to forget. so i'm just going to give you where we ended for the day and the week. on a daily basis, we were off 1.5% or so. that was much worse even an hour or two ago. it really is those small cap stocks getting hit the hardest as well as the stock index. muche sort of gauging how coming back online it really is for china. and the vix finally now down. i was with you guys less than an hour ago, saying that a lower vix means that is good.
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implies that volatility is set to continue to decline. i wanted to recap where we are for the week. it was the best week ever for crude. this is all as trump is tweeting that saudi and russia were looking to cut about $10 million per day. thinks not huge when you about global supply, but given there is no demand, any sort of cuts are helping them. you did just hear from the president, convening energy leaders to talk about how to end the oil route. nail on thet the head when she was talking about the dollar. you are seeing a lot of dollar strength. a lot of pressures have eased a little bit. you are getting some strengthening more relative to the aussie dollar.
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you are still seeing some of these traditional safe havens really catch a bid. that falls into a massive weekend here for some of the emerging markets as they struggle from that stronger dollar. finally, let's look at some of the individual stocks we are covering. live nation is lower by 29%. this is after they got their price target slashed. giving upirlines is on flying overseas for most of the summer. kohl's is reporting that they are drawing down a $1 billion revolving credit line. and carnival cruise, we all know the story. they just continue to find it hard to get those ships out on the scenes. i think there is a broader question of when people feel safe to travel again. all these stocks really in the travel and retail industry under
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pressure. romaine: thanks to taylor riggs for that update. management asset global market strategist gabriella santos, we only have time for maybe one more question. i want to get your thoughts on the fixed income space. what strategy should folks be looking at when you look at how low treasury yields are and sovereign yields around the world? >> i think the strategy for us in fixed income markets right now is one of a focused still on quality and of security selection. it is still one where having overweight to things like treasury, mortgage backed securities, investment-grade bonds, is still one that makes rush, versus trying to back into high-yield and emerging-market debt. the other piece i mentioned is that security selection.
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it is not going to be all sectors, all companies that are going to survive this tough moment. we need to make sure we have companies with solid balance sheets low leverage. scarlet: thank you so much, gabriella santos for jp morgan. joining us by phone. we were hearing from president trump earlier, holding a roundtable with energy ceo's. he says we will get the energy business back up and he's looking at infrastructure package. the number floated earlier this week was around $2 trillion. he also mentioned that oil was trading at a $20 handle, that the government may want to fill some reserve areas. the energy secretary says the president should check out other areas to store oil. that does it for the closing bell. "what'd you miss?" is up next. we will be speaking with the quibi ceo herself.
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and on the week as well. the dollar gained and treasuries moved higher. that on monday's conference call between the oil producers. one of the catalysts for today's decline was the jobs report from march. u.s. unemployment rising at the fastest rate since 1975, hinting at the extent of the damage to the united states and the global economy. our next guest rights that a nationalized payroll could help. associate professor of economics and director of the economics program. for joining usch today. can you explain what you mean by nationalized payroll? i scarlet, romain. attempt to look at different approaches to addressing the coronavirus epidemic and the fallout in the labor markets.
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looking toward some of our european counterparts in terms of protecting payroll, i asked the question, what if we had the government simply underwrite the payroll and pay for a particular period of time. it was an exercise to look at the size of the budget that we whatpassed and looking at payroll is in the economy. it would have been enough to pay 100% of all wages. if we went the route of paying a proportion, 75 percent as in denmark or elsewhere, then we could have supported payrolls for longer. the idea is that it is far more difficult to create jobs once we are faced with these extraordinary unemployment numbers. romaine: talk about the potential ramifications for a program like that, specifically in an economy like ours and the
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way it is centered in our brand of capitalism. if you were to move to a program like that, like denmark, does that create disincentives for people to enter the workforce down the road? it will't imagine that create disincentives. it will create protection and safety and certainty that people are not losing their jobs and that they can return hopefully within a reasonable time. my main concern with such an approach in the united states was that our labor market tends to be very precarious. we have almost half of all workers earning a median average income of $18,000. we know that certain sectors, folks are overpaid. others are underpaid. if we were just to pay the payroll as it is, we might be
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underwriting some of these inequities. there are a lot of people who work in the gig economy or are self-employed. if we were to move to an approach like this that subsidizes the wage bill for employers, i think it is perfectly reasonable to expect employers going forward to provide some basic strong protections for their workers. those were the kind of considerations we might want to think about. the government is already providing enormous support to the private sector. i think it is not unreasonable to say, once we come out of this pandemic, do we want people to be working hand to mouth? would we like to have some safety nets a little stronger and more job security for all to mark -- all? scarlet: the political reality probably doesn't allow for any of this.
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even the democrats are unable to agree on much when it comes to what kind of solutions they can offer longer-term. on the your take payments made to individuals and families who are making less than $75,000 a year? to much aid does that offer the real economy? pavlina: it is short-term aid and if we are strictly focusing on unemployment insurance and these payments, we will need to be passing several such large packages to carry forward because we will have very high unemployment rate. once unemployment reaches these highs, it just doesn't come down on its own quickly. my concern is the following. what are going to be the other dominoes that fall? when we see mass unemployment, we are already seeing states losing revenue. freezeseeing them try to
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expenditures. that will have repercussions on pensions, on the public education system. there will be halting of sectors that suffer the consequence of this mass unemployment, and basically the shortfalls seem to be accelerating faster than we can estimate them. we need to find a better way to stop this avalanche. the government's, whatever the package they passed next, will need to start thinking about more direct measures. perhaps directly paying some of the bills that states are responsible for. the component for state support in the last packet was very small relative to what the shortfall is likely going to be. really: all right, thought-provoking things here. when we finally do get that book, we will be sure to have you back on to talk about that. director of the
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countries as well as raise humanitarian issues. the ceo spoke earlier with bloomberg's michael mckee and taylor riggs. >> we continue to do everything we can to fight covid-19 and support health care workers here at home. we've ramped up production as quickly as possible. we saw this early in january and ramped up production capacity. we are working to expand that. we are focused on delivering as much as we can in april. the narrative that we are not doing everything to maximize delivery in our home country is false. is not doing 3m all it can to fight price gouging and unauthorized reselling is absurd. we have been at the frontlines of leading this. , for all itse is framers that have dedicated so much time and effort in the fight here, it was disappointing
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to hear that overnight. tell exactly to what the white house is talking about, but in this case it seems the president would report that you are selling some of these masks to canada and latin america, which i understand has been a common business practice for you. circumstances, we produce about 19, 20 million respirators a month in the u.s. goes to industrial customers and a portion goes to canada and latin america. in a crisis like this, we double that output and shift to 90% , onlywo health care supporting key industries like pharmaceutical, manufacturing, or food production. we continue to support canada and latin america as part of our strategy. this covid fight is like nothing we've seen. we are trying to do everything we can to bring capacity into
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the u.s. while we still serve canada and latin america where we are often the sole supplier of health-care workers in those countries. we have expanded our capacity. agreemente just got to forget -- to export n95 respirators and we are stepping up and we are bringing more production online in june. we will get up to 50 million plus. we are a net importer into the u.s. even though we continue to serve canada and latin america. 10% of ourthan normal production. it becomes a humanitarian issue that we have to try and balance and at the same time maximize everything we can bring to the u.s. scarlet: mike, is their price gouging in these masks? how far down the supply chain
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are you able to control pricing? gouging, we are manufacturing respirators. we sell those two distributors. in the health-care care crisis, we sell through half a dozen large, reputable distributors. we work with them to get product where it is needed. the comment about triage, that is what we are doing. shipng with fema to directly, but also working with our distributors. prior to covid outbreak, we were selling 90% to industrial distributors and they are selling to a broad range of customers. some of that has ended up in resellers. those resellers are where this unethical behavior of price gouging is taking place. never have not and would increase prices for our respirators during this crisis and we don't sell to the highest
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bidder. we sell through these authorized distributors or the government. jyond that, we go with studio -- with doj and state ag's. we authenticate products. areook to make sure we calling out those price gouging resellers. we are doing everything we can to help law enforcement take that on and we have a supply chain that ensures, and we monitor this every day, is this really a strong and effective way to get the product to the is disappointing and unfortunate that resellers are taking advantage of this situation. 3m,let: that was the ceo of mike roman. coming up the dollar surge means paying for emerging markets. what could bring relief? we will bring that question to
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let's talk emerging-market assets. coming off their biggest quarterly loss since 2008. now beginning the second quarter with another week of losses. joining us now to talk about emerging markets, we want to bring in emily weiss at state street in boston. let's start out on the dollar liquidity issue. it seemed to be a big source of the strain we saw in e.m. equities and with currencies last week, last month. now that those issues seem to have been tamped down a little bit, does that give central banks and some of these nations a little more capacity with the
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potential economic fallout? emily: unfortunately right now there's a few headwinds that emerging markets are facing. there's collapse in commodity and thesubdued trade, somewhat stronger dollar that was maybe unexpected. the dollar had had a pretty significant surge towards the middle of this quarter and has moderated a little bit since. that has been helped by the point that you mentioned. the fed coming into make sure that liquidity was addressed and that dollars could get to every corner of the globe. 's herculean efforts have not been in vain. there's still a lot of other factors that are continuing to weigh on emerging-market equities and currencies. that will continue to be an issue headed into the second quarter of this year. extent can what
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central banks and emerging markets address this by cutting interest rates? emerging-market central banks face a delicate balance. there's only so much room they have to run. luckily they do have more room to cut rates than most banks had coming into this year. but we've seen that amid this backdrop. to anmakers have turned address response. almost more like what we would see out of developed markets. we have seen rates drop significantly. real rates are now negative and a surprising number of countries, some of whom weren't typical low yield or's, but now expanding to turkey, india, brazil, all having negative real rates. when we look at how these cuts will provide support for households, that is a positive, but there's still other things to consider.
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you mentioned several nations there. whenever we talk about e.m., we tend to lump it into one big basket. can you talk about some of the nations and regions that might have a better chance to recover from this faster than others? emily: i think that is definitely a key way of looking at it. the way that this pandemic has unfortunately unfolded has been a gradual spread throughout the globe. it did notably start in china and had the first few cases outside china in the asia region. when we are looking at the areas that we are hoping that as china appears to be coming out on the others this recovery after its own version of the pandemic, that that will create staggered timelines. so areas like latin america and
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emerging europe are only starting to encounter the pandemic in their regions. whereas china and the rest of asia, their data is going to be especially important as we get a better sense of how that recovery is evolving and how quickly that can come through. there's a chance for a relative value story there. scarlet: that would suggest avoiding latin america for now since they have yet to see the pandemic take hold in their area. one thing that you say might help the latin america markets, particularly in mexico, is if there is some kind of agreement among the opec nations, allies, and other oil-producing nations. how much would that help with something like mexico? emily: it would be a help for a lot of these emerging-market countries. this oil issue has come at a
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really inopportune time. any sort of deal that can be reached between opec-plus and its members at the meeting that has been scheduled for next monday would be helpful in terms of addressing the supply-side issue that we are seeing in oil markets. there is still a lingering demand-side issue, which is that there isn't a lot of global demand. while it will provide some relief, we haven't seen a massive reaction in a lot of those emerging-market currencies. scarlet: good stuff. appreciate really your taking time to break it all down for us. now let's turn to mark crumpton and our first word headlines. mark: the world organization is
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warning countries not to ease lockdowns too soon. the who says lifting restrictions to quickly could lead to a resurgence of the disease and the economic impact could be even more severe and prolonged. global health officials conceded slightly on guidelines for wearing masks, saying there has been a healthy debate on the matter. there are new estimates on the financial vault of the pandemic. the asian development bank predicts the crisis will cost the global economy as much as $4 trillion. japan is bracing for what anicials feel will be exclusive surgeon coronavirus cases. japan haveases in more than doubled in a week. prime minister shinzo abe has come under pressure to declare a state of emergency. abe told parliament the situation didn't get warrant emergency declaration, but said
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he wouldn't hesitate when the time comes. the british people will hear from queen elizabeth this weekend. buckingham palace says the queen has reported a rare address to the public about the pandemic. it will be broadcast on sunday. apart from her annual christmas message, the queen has made only a handful of special broadcasts during her reign. she addressed the nation during the gulf war and after the death of princess diana. global news, 24 hours a day, on-air and quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. in new york, i am mark crumpton. this is bloomberg. ♪
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the president has been in touch and on the phone with saudi arabia and russia. he's been on the phone several times. other people in the administration have been talking to their counterparts in both countries. so we do that independently in america's interest. yesterdayent told me and he did subsequently tweet this out, that he believes that russia and saudi arabia will move away from their argument
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and allow market forces to loading, and instead of up the markets that are already oversupplied, that they will pull back. we will see how that turns out. the president said that oil prices have gone up quite a bit since that statement. i see no reason why these discussions with president trump and putin and mbs will not bear fruit. i think they will. i think flooding the market with oil on top of the pandemic was a very poor decision by both countries. andi think the president his negotiations will bear fruit. >> will the united states be part of those production cuts? dictate oil policies to our oil and gas sectors. they are smart businesses. the u.s. is still the number one
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energy producer in the world and we expect to remain so. we don't dictate. i think, as you would guess, oil companies, seeing a decline in price, are going to pull back in production. but we don't dictate those decisions. the government doesn't dictate those decisions. >> i know you've got a busy morning. but as a final question, on a day when these small business loans are going down, when americans are struggling to pay the bills, can you communicate to a broader audience why there is such a big focus on the oil market? first of all, we have -- i'm looking forward to the meetings today with the oil producers. i myself have done a number of conference calls with the oil and overall energy sectors.
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let me just insert this. the degree of public and private government and public and private partnership was unparalleled. we have worked with any industry and the president has seen them in person or done conference calls and the rest of us have done conference calls. aint number two, energy is key part of our economy. tremendousart of the economic growth we had. it is important. getrists, people who heating fuel, gasoline prices, all that is key parts of american life. but i will say this. regarding any collusion attempts by other countries in or out of opec that seem to be doing damage to american interest is
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something that president trump will get engaged with right away to protect the american economy. we talk about paycheck protection for small businesses to avoid layoffs. this is just general economic energy. we have to stand up for american interest. energy is a key part of the economy. to me it is an american operation. that is what we are concerned about. scarlet: economic council director larry kudlow with bloomberg's jonathan ferro. markets in freefall, another down day today. the broader question, what does this mean for the tech and media and entertainment industry. quibi launches on monday. it is the brainchild of dreamworks founder jeffrey katzenberg and meg whitman, former ceo of hp and ebay and also ceo now of quibi. but i'mget to quibi,
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just dying to know your thoughts on the international crisis. you also ran for governor of california. what is your take on just how long and deep this recession is going to be? thank you for having me. nice to hear your voice. i think we are in unprecedented times. no one has seen anything like this. i think no one really knows how long quarantine or shelter-in-place will be. no one really understands the economich of the setback. but it is very real. there's a lot of people really struggling out there. unemployment claims were sky high this week and the week before. we just need to think about each
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other and helping everybody and helping each other. but doing the right thing to contain this virus, which is a true pandemic. what do you think this means for the tech industry and media and entertainment industry, which you know even better? you've got a company like netflix. the market cap of netflix rivaling disney, which had to close all its theme parks. meg: media is a highly diversified category. there's many different parts of media. and clearly the traditional movie business is on hold for right now. i live in l.a. now. virtually all the movie sets are down and production has ceased. some production is still happening at people's homes. the theme parks, broadway, all of that is shut down. but the streaming services, netflix, disney plus, others
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have a lot of customers and people watching right now because people are at home. all sporting events are not happening right now. so there's parts of it, the entertainment business, that benefit to some degree, and some that are hurt. so it is a mix. emily: so what is the mix or where does quibi fall in that mix? you are launching monday. people are glued to their devices. we are devouring more content than ever. but at the same time, you can't advertise in a big way during march madness for example. what does this mean? the first question we had to ask ourselves was, could we launch? our entire employee base
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like everyone is working from home. we aretech perspective, a cloud-based service. google cloud is our major partner. we can launch virtually. havein the day, you had to a network operation center and a data center. we second question is, do have enough content? we have accelerated development of contact. we didn't know exactly what we would need. we have enough content to last us through most of the fall of next year. so we then said, we can launch. should we launch? we are not health care professionals. we are not first responders. but we thought, what we do is entertain, inform, and inspire. we thought we could bring a little joy and levity to people's challenges.
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we've had to pay that a number of things. you mentioned march madness. one of our sections was march madness. the ncaa final game is supposed to be monday, the day of our lunch. we were big buyers of the nba finals. so we had to pivot to more digital, linear tv. we had a launch that was supposed to be physical that now has to be virtual. we originally had a two week free trial. we moved to a 90 day free trial. we've had to do a lot of thinking and being flexible and agile. and i'm super proud of our workforce. you've got to tears of subscription. it is a paid subscription service. one of those is ad free, but one carries advertising.
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i'm curious whether consumers will sign on to this when they are financially stressed. we've got 10 million people that lost their jobs and predictions that the ad industry is going to plummet as well. that facebook and google will lose upwards of $40 billion in ad revenue this year. we: it is one of the reasons made the service free for 90 days. give people a chance to experience quibi for at least the next 90 days for free. we will see where we are. -- i thinkon the there will always be demand for entertainment. is we recognize that there an entirely different change. but we still felt it was the right thing to do to launch. have 10 ofsers, we the best advertisers in the united states who signed on to be launch partners.
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they are already to launch. yearis all locked in for one. we will see about year two. world will be the like in the fall? we have to cross that bridge when we come to it. we are relatively small. our advertising revenue in year one was $150 million. i'm certain we will be affected, but we feel good about our advertisers and our year one, and they are helping us to build the platform as well. i think we are good for year one and we will have to see what happens in year two. emily: you don't own any of the shows you have, as i understand. there are some contracts where they could go elsewhere. when it that model seems everyone else is going the other way and wants to own their content? meg: we wanted to put forth a
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deal that was really good for the creators. we pay the cost of production plus 20%. we license it to our platform for seven years and at the end of seven years, the creators own their ip. ,or our movies and chapters after two years, they can reassemble that movie into a longform movie and sell it into another window. we think there's two profit pools. the creator and the platform. we said, we are a new company. we think it would be fantastic for the creators to own their ip because then they would bring their breast projects -- best projects to quibi. if you go back many years in hollywood, the networks didn't own their ip. they were prevented from doing so by regulation. it is only in the last couple
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decades where the studios and networks own their ip. so we are going back to what worked well and number of years ago. we could not be more pleased with how hollywood has responded. stars, writers, producers, talent, who have signed on to be stars with us. emily: i know a lot of people are looking forward to seeing what you've got on monday. we are all desperate for new content, so we will be watching. meg whitman, ceo of quibi, thanks for joining us. we will be back after this quick break. this is bloomberg. ♪
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it says its april flight schedule will be below original plans by about 80% and that 30,000 workers have applied for leave, but it needs more than that. it is cutting merit and hourly based ground worker hours. we are starting to get some pre-announcements. with the embattled airline industry coming out and saying that second-quarter revenue will be down, burning more than $60 million cash per day. and this is really going to be the issue going forward. when can these airlines actually bounceback in terms of getting people flying again and how long that takes is going to determine how much cash these companies have. right now these types of numbers are probably going to get the same types of numbers out of most of their competitors. scarlet: and a reminder that you
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♪ emily: welcome to "bloomberg technology." i am emily chang currently sheltering in place in san francisco. another down day for americans. this is americans file a record number of job claims. within 10 million people in the u.s. have lost their jobs in the last two weeks. we are standing by for the daily white house press conference where the virus task force would give us an update. this is the number of infections in new york state have surpassed
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