across the board. dow jones industrial average was up as 4% on the day. so as you about 3% or hear the closing bell you see all the major indices in the red to close out the there are some significant gainers. names like royal caribbean, a lot of consumer discretionary names that had been sold off so hard. 10% astion up about well. names, ahe large cap little more of a boost here. on theving downwards day. zoom video also down about 7.4%. still seeing a little bit of selling in the treasury market. 71, 72 basisabout

point. scarlett has been talking about selloff we have been seeking in oil. we were down but we are seeing crude dipping about 6%. scarlet: oil prices have been all over the map. eventshis week, the scheduled to taken place, the virtual conference call that is on thursday. friday, the g20 energy ministers meeting, where the u.s. and canada may start to play into the production cuts as well. as you were talking, i just down the up the dow smallest percentage move. it has been a long time since we saw the dow kind of close flat on the day. pretty telling. quite an amazing day.

we have been talking about this all day, the volatility. no one really knows where anything should be praised. still with us, we want to bring heinel, state street deputy cio. let's talk about the earnings season set to kickoff next week, earnings season that people are starting to dismiss already. i am wondering what your expectations are, what you are expecting to hear, and how much stock you will be putting into it? see awe are likely to decent earnings season. the firstnd that quarter was not really impacted particularly by the united states. earnings down very modestly,

nothing compared to the top-down estimates of the macro indicators. we are starting to see the ripple through affect us, whether it is company earnings or choices they are making about defense control. what they are given, in terms of how they are managing cash flow. cash flow is king and how they are thinking about longer-term and the ability to invest. we are also watching carefully any signaling action around things like dividends or buybacks. scarlet: i am glad you bring up dividends. in this kind of environment, a company would be hard-pressed to raise dividends if it is also trying to do right by its

workers. the optics are not great for raising its dividend. can we reasonably expect any company to do so? lori: i think you are right that it would be difficult for companies to raise dividends. the question is, are they in a position going forward to sustain them rather than short-term? in many cases, the investor base is reliant on that dividend three time. delicate balancing act. as you note, each company will have to look at its own situation. what is the sustainability of that dividend and how does that play off other factors? romaine: for longer-term investors and particularly investors who gravitate towards

safer portfolios, a little more focused on dividend, a little bit more focused on fixed income. what do you say to them when you see the possibility of these cuts. sovereign bond yields at or near zero. do you think this will all sort itself out? lori: a lot of investors do diffidencerms of the , appreciation. ultimately, the return game. at their cash flow needs. how do you think about what your short-term needs are, what kind of risk tolerance you have? all of those things are still basics that you cannot just throw out the window because you

have a crisis. of course, if there are clients ,ho do need that income stream we think selectively in the reaps market, there is opportunity. local currency debt looks pretty attractive here. careful have to be about not over allocating to any particular asset and balancing out your risk. scarlet: treading very carefully, in other words. lori heinel, thank you for joining us today. lori heinel is deputy global cio of state street global advisors. that does it for "the closing bell." next where miss?" is we will be speaking with the ceo of allstate. policy premiums, we will get into all of that. this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ romaine: broadcasting live from new york to our viewers worldwide, this is "what'd you miss?" i am romaine bostick alongside my cohost, scarlet fu. rallied at the open. they surged within the first 30 minutes. since then, a downward drift. the smallest percentage move since february 14.

let's get a global economic outlook with dana peterson. there is a lot of talk here about different leaders about how quickly they can reopen parts of their economy. there is this idea that because it was so easy to shut down, when we reopen the economy, things will go back -- not to where they were but that we will be able to see a recovery. it will not be like turning on a switch, it will be more of a process. do we have any sense of what that process will look like? >> it really will depend upon what industry we are talking about. for manufacturing, you can see a recovery asv-shaped the machines get rolling. in places like china where people are starting to return to

work. if you look at other sectors, for example sectors associated with services, in particular lavel services, you might see -shaped recovery. shopping, and restaurants, it will probably take some time. people worrying about becoming infected or affecting others. romaine: can you talk about how u.s. an -- how you as an economist look to model that. even as we do get up and running with regards to the economy, there are a lot of folks who probably will avoid concerts, restaurants, gatherings where they will be in close proximity to people. how do you account for that?

that is a good question. it is much easier to forecast the downturn. with respect to how this is going to play out, it is really going to be determined by how comfortable people feel returning to activities like going to the movie theater, which will require more people than these small groups of 10 many officials are allowing. we are really going to have to watch various trackers like the number of people on the roads, the number of movie theaters opening, the number of stores reopening. not students can , because thatol will determine whether parents can return to work. scarlet: determining how the

rest of the world will behave when they adjust to things starting to normalize. there were a lot of questions whether china was truthful and accurate in its reporting, but when it comes to observing how the country is getting back on its feet, is there a model we can use and apply to what we think is happening here? dana: we are watching the number of recorded cases. in china, that number has already flatlined, which is great. we are also watching how factory activity is picking up. we have an activity tracker we are able to compare the last year. in most recent readings, china was back to the prior year's level. we are watching measures like pollution, the number of people ordering from restaurants. all of these things are very

important in seeing whether or not you will have the v-shaped recovery, the l-shaped recovery. most importantly, how quickly all this happens. see similar patterns? romaine: when we talk about the global recovery, is it going to be disjointed? china, obviously, the coronavirus outbreak happened before anyone else. they peaked for anyone else, then you had europe. when we talk about a recovery, are we going to actually see a significant recovery in china without necessarily seeing a recovery in some of its european, latin american, or african buyers. dana: we are expecting a rolling

downturn, then a rolling recovery. certainly, the worst of the coronavirus outbreaks for china and of asia was in the first quarter. when you look at the u.s. and europe, it is the second quarter. you should probably also see weakening throughout latin america, africa and the second quarter into the third quarter. we will have this rolling downturn, then a rolling recovery. when we look at our forecast, we ,o have a negative growth rate then a very strong negative rate of -6% for the second quarter. start to get a little bit better. the worst ofeally it in terms of the damage to the

global economy, we are expecting in the second quarter, certainly as the u.s., canada, and europe are experiencing the worst of it, these large economies that are significant shares of gdp growth. the ecb doing all it can to ease financial conditions across the region. they are expected -- they are accepting government bonds as collateral. there is a lot of talk that they will need to move toward issuing so-called corona bonds so they can bolster the recovery and member states can share data. do you think that will be a reality? g7 at a know that the remote meeting today. this is all part of the discussion. it seems for the most part there is not an agreement on whether

or not there will be financial backstops, but certainly there is discussion of a pretty sizable fiscal package. in germany, they said let's look euro200 to 250 billion package that would cover things like credit lines and also offer direct spending for coronavirus relief but also potentially guaranteeing loans to small and medium-sized firms. it seems like there is more of an agreement on those aspects. amaine: we only have about minute left. i want to get your thoughts on inflation or maybe disinflation, pre-much in the context of the u.s. with all of the spending going on to prop up the economy and potentially give us that recovery. dana: this entire scenario,

adding together the coronavirus pandemic plus the oil price, both of these things are heavily disinflationary in our view. first of all, oil prices dropping means that ultimately it will spillover into costs for other types of energy, spilling over and seeping into costs for goods and services. declineeeing massive for things like airline tickets, financial services. is disinflationary despite the fact that we will see quite a bit of spending at the government level and, indeed , even consumers are spending a lot on necessities such as food. romaine: dana peterson, citigroup global economist. coming up on the program, we will keep talking about what is going on with the economy. you will hear our conversation

from earlier with an economist at johns hopkins. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪

romaine: we are going to continue our conversation here about the global economy. alessandro rebucci from johns hopkins spoke to us earlier. : emerging markets have been hit very hard by the beginning phases of the crisis. we have seen outflow of capital

repatriating in the united states. the epidemic is just picking up in emerging markets. as we know, it lasts for about four months. the peak is for two months. emerging markets are much less capable of absorbing the health dimensions of the crisis. they will be put under extreme strain. we will start to see unprecedented activity and possibly widespread financial damages. ura worldor, authority in -- you are a world authority and real estate. it is diffuse, it is out there, not necessarily something we can touch. what is the leverage of the astem, are they exposed 1998? alessandro: the global levels of real estate is not as diffuse

and deep as in the united states. typically, emerging-market purposes -- purchases take place on a cash basis. leverage inect, real estate is not necessarily the most important problem. however, research shows that impacts can be extremely long-lasting. so, certain segments of megacities in emerging markets might be particularly damaged by the health invention -- the health damage and of the crisis itself. >> italy finds itself in a very difficult situation. economy already burdened with a huge amount of debt. perception in italy and whether debt is sustainable?

italy was already experiencing difficulty to recover from the global financial crisis. effectively, it never recovered by growth was permanently it that shock. this new catastrophe will be and help ismaging, desperately needed from the european community, ideally from the rest of the international community. there is a lot of talk about options for financial rescue. considert is a time to .mergency help fund helped other european economies during the financial crisis. scarlet: that was alessandro rebucci of johns hopkins

university. full disclosure, the johns hopkins bloomberg school of public health is supported by michael bloomberg. let's get a check of your business flash headlines. exxon mobil targeting its best known shale assets for deep cuts. 30% to $23 billion. denmark's the second-biggest budget cut in exxon history. the largest share of the cuts will hit the permian basin in west texas and new mexico. deutsche bank downgrading general motors. analysts warning that gm will run low on cash if production shutdowns continue for months. they say gm and ford have only 15-17 weeks of liquidity to ride out the current editions. wynn resorts is the latest company to test out the credit market. they are looking to order $350 billion in unsecured notes.

it is the first such sale since open threend market weeks ago. that is your business flash update. it is supposed to be spring break right now for a kids in public school but it looks like increasingly everyone's summer plans will have to be put on hold as well. goldman sachs says it is shortening its summer internship program and delaying the start date. typically, these programs run 10, 11, 12 weeks. jp morgan said it is even exploring a virtual format if necessary. everyone will still get paid the stipend they were promised when they were given the offers, even if it is not the full 9, 10, 11 week period. romaine: it is not necessarily even about the money for a lot of these folks. it is really about the

experience, making the connections and jumpstarting their career. you wonder what it will be like to try to enter the workforce either as an intern or full-time employee in an environment like this. scarlet: something we will keep a close eye on. all right, coming up, we will talk with allstate ceo tom wilson about how the company is dealing with the lack of drivers and some of the money that it will give some of those drivers back. this is bloomberg. ♪ you doing okay?

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we're working to make things a little easier for everyone. download the xfinity my account app today. newlet: new york's rate of coronavirus infections tapered for a third straight day, stoking optimism that the pandemic may be reaching a peak in the state. >> we went from 53,000 hospital beds when this crisis started, governor's of the effort, we have 90,000 beds available. mean anything't unless you have staff. our superhero frontline

individuals are in there taking care of the sick, and the people , they icus in particular -- again and again. now we have a reserve of 7000 ofple, the outpouring volunteers in this country. several thousand people have been hired by hospitals because they stepped up. we feel good about that part. this applies company governor would say no hospital is going for a ventilator, which is so important, but that is also a concern of ours because any spike in a particular region could require a intense number of ventilators. needu county, they ventilators more than they did a week ago. we are constantly redeploying resources to make sure the hospital can handle the surge in

their area. >> lieutenant governor, you are at or we hope near the apex. we do not want to get ahead of ourselves, we don't want people to do away with social distancing, but the government taking about when and how we think about getting back to work. have you looked at what that plan looks like. is there a plan being developed for new york? lt. gov. hochul: absolutely. what the governor and i agree with is that it also comes down to testing. we do not want to declare that it is safe to go back to work unless we can test and find out. obviously, the first would be people who have already had the coronavirus and are healthy again. if wel only know for sure can have widespread testing

which, because of the number of issues at the federal government early on, the lack of testing capacity, as well as the basic supplies, we have had a shortage. if we can get the federal government to ramp up production of these necessary supplies so we can have rapid testing, there are opportunities for us to have resulted a doctor's office in 5, 15 minutes. we have to get to that point in order for us to feel confident not having a downward trend that will spike up again, as studying past pandemics. a six-month phenomenon where we lost 60,000 new yorkers. very proactive steps we have

been taking. i have been focused, as the chair of all the state regional economic councils, overseeing economic development, i have already been in contact with the ,tatewide chambers of commerce manufacturing and others, talking about how we jumpstart the economy once we start going full steam ahead. there will be a lot of small businesses that just may not make it. or theyd a lifeline now are gone forever. all the work in the state reduced unemployment, to increase jobs, we don't want to lose where we have gone. having the conversation literally as we speak. question,t specifically on testing. do you have a sense of how far we are away on required testing

to make the move to start opening up? lt. gov. hochul: we just don't have the capacity yet. if we could get the federal government to invoke the defense production act, we would be in a much better place. kathy hochul,was lieutenant governor of the state of new york. with travel restrictions and mandates to stay health, fewer people are traveling or driving. auto insurers are now returning some money to customers. allstate announced it would give back some $600 million. great to speak with you once again. you could start by explaining what prompted this decision to give back the premiums, and whether there is any historical precedent for this? i wonder if there is any event that served as a playbook for

you? we have been in the business for 89 years. typically, it is hurricanes, wildfires, things that are more concentrated. i have never seen anything like this. but we have seen is we know what works in those situations, which is act quickly. frequency of the number of see how farng, we people drive come out fast they drive. in the beginning of march, it was fine. data,a week's worth of this is different. we need to do something differently. we decided we should reach out to our customers and not wait for them to ask.

in the spirit of fairness, you are not driving, you should get money back. shelter-in-place payback, which is 15%. romaine: what is the general criteria? is this pretty much just a blanket for all of your customers or is there a certain threshold people need to meet to get that? tom: no threshold needed. if you are an auto insurance customer for us, you get 15% back. because theretate really is not that much difference in how much people are driving. we put a minimum dollar amount on it. appave it set up into our so you can put it into your checking account or just take it as a credit. we wanted to make sure that people have the money as quickly

as possible. we did it on relatively little data. new barriers we have to break down. we assume this will keep going for a while. we just thought it was the right thing to do. scarlet: our bloomberg intelligence analysts say that this shelter-in-place program will reduce your first quarter eps and affect the second quarter but that may be offset by a drop in auto traffic nationwide. does that sound about right to you? tom: yes. we have not seen a tremendous number of catastrophes. obviously, the frequency is down. we feel good about doing this because we are in a strong place. we felt it was worth taking the

risk going forward because our customers are doing this and we did not think we would start driving back the way we were. it will take a while to get back. the other thing we did was decided to tech people for their identity. free identity protection as well. scarlet: that is not limited to allstate policyholders either, is it? tom: no, it is not. can weed and said, what do for our customers? we thought, everyone is digital survey. you're a third-grader going to school online, you are working from home online. the number of phishing attacks is up about 600%. available,ake it free is free. this is not one of those deals you forgetign up and

to call us. this is for the rest of the year, you don't have to be an allstate customer, you can go to our website and get free identity protection. tos spirit, everyone has lean in and do something different because this is not like normal capacities. -- normal catastrophes. scarlet: i appreciate the data you were able to provide on the cyber threats we may face particularly when it comes to personal identity online. having said all of that, a lot of us are flying blind here. you alluded to that even when you put in the shelter-in-place payback program. what kind of visibility do you have or not have? the second quarter is very much up in the air. the second half of the year, how are you thinking about it?

tom: first, we are thinking the world will be different than it is today and nobody really knows how. when you get through that is working together and having trust. that is one of the reasons why we did this. and people will get back to driving. about a third of our time driving is spent going to work. a third for ahrens, it a third to see friends and family. i believe once we get through shelter-in-place, people will start going back. how much is unclear. if you're working at home five days a week now, you could say, i could work at home two days a week. we also don't know what is going to happen to accidents. we do -- sorry. we do have --

scarlet: go on, sorry. i was just saying, we don't really know about the type of monitors because, we do 23 million cars, a couple million which are our customers. we can see that, while driving is down, people are going a little faster. no one is onecause the road and they are speeding we also don't know what will happen to the homeowners business. if you are home, no one is coming your house and stealing stuff. because so many families have come together, people have moved out of places and there are empty houses. if we act quickly and make sure we are prepared, our customers will be fine. scarlet: prepare for all possibilities. tom wilson, thank you for

joining us. that was tom wilson of allstate. from new york, this is bloomberg. ♪

♪ romaine: chinese video streaming company calling as much as 13% is one point during early trading. wolfpack research releasing a port alleging the company overstates revenue and subscriber numbers.

iqiyi came out with a statement and i will quote some of it. the company believes that the report contains misleading inclusions and interpretations relating to the company. that is according to the report. joining us now, the founder of wolfpack research, dan david. we appreciate you being here. very societally, what is the -- ccinctly, what- su is the basis behind this? >> first, i would like to acknowledge and thank everybody, our first responders on the front line of this covid virus that have been helping us all. our thoughts and gratitude are with you. ground year of on the due diligence, it is committing fraud. its ipo.t prior to

the chinese credit reports, basic due diligence that firms are not doing these days. byy overstated the revenue 260%. in 2017 prior to the ipo. post-ipo, they got that whole to take out of. grow intoot able to it. what they do and what we are known for his on the ground research. in wenzhou, surveys and beijing, and found that their users are about 40%-60% less, and that they share revenue with some of their partners and take all of that revenue and show it as all their revenue. scarlet: is that unusual? is that something that other

companies do in china? dan: commit fraud? it has happened quite often. in the past 10 years, we have been responsible of delisting over a dozen china-based companies for fraud. no one has gone to jail. no one has paid a fine. you have the coffee situation that just kind of came out and fell apart this week. she get to this conversation, today, cal close education, who muddy waters research, one of our affiliated in 2018 ase on committing fraud, just reported employee wrongdoing and fraud in their numbers. that is two this weekend the tide is starting to turn again. so, no, unfortunately it is not unusual.

romaine: when you look at these companies, block and coffee obviously had a massive selloff. once they came out and admitted they had found regularities. right now, we are at a stage where the company is denying your report, saying there is nothing wrong. i guess, as a short seller and someone making a bet that your research is right, what is the process you are taking? how much downside do you see and can that materialize itself if you do not get some sort of admission out of the company? dan: i think it will materialize. i have been doing this for a long time. leadmade china hussle, the protagonist in that film. -- i think the bet here,

and most of the people who traffic in these names, active managers, are not really betting whether i am right or wrong. i think they know i am right. they are betting, is the government going to act? will they do an independent investigation? the becomes the primary -- binary trade here. a year or two ago, that stops happening. it is happening more and more now. we are having that kind of relationship where we are demanding that investigations happen. if you look at some of my allegations, they are very straightforward, very easy to that. if there is an independent investigation here, the downside is unlimited. romaine: muddy waters, where they part of this? how did you work together? dan: we have stated we are

affiliated with muddy waters from the foundation of wolfpack research. it is inow difficult china, the breath of this work took a year to do. we were happy to have an affiliated firm to be able to shoulder some of that responsibility. other'st affect each that we are able to -- we are able to vet each other's conclusions. if we are calling somebody a fraud and we are wrong, that is a very different thing. romaine: dan david, we appreciate you taking time to be with us today. stay tuned, we will be back in a moment. this is bloomberg. ♪

bostick,i am romaine scarlet fu joining me virtually, and joe weisenthal joining us by phone. joe, what are you watching? peopleviously, a lot of in the market have been encouraged over the last few days by some of the bending of the curves. soon, attention is going to focus on, ok, we start to get the case counts down, but what is the actual plan for resuming economic activity? soon, we might have some examples -- of course, the epicenter of this whole crisis, wuhan, now having officially come out of lockdown according

to the rail authorities. aso, austria, which has done alsoy good job, they are plans bybout their reopening certain this is gradually including -- certain retailers. soon, parts of asia and soon with europe, we will see what is feasible. a lot of people will be looking at, can these companies return to some semblance of normal life or does that create a second wave? scarlet: the u.s. is behind austria in terms of opening up some of its economies. reopening the economy is not like a switch. it is going to be a process. it willreopening's and

be reflected in the data. -- rolling reopenings and it will be reflected in the data. joe: austria plans to start with small retailers, hardware stores, then if there is not worsening, more shops. then, schools, restaurants, and hotels. this will be a long process. a, did not have a huge number of cases to begin with and b, have been fairly effective at testing. we have a lot of cases in some of our major cities, particularly new york and elsewhere. austria, which is fairly ideal, perhaps something to aspire to, but it has been

contained. it is just a long way off. we will see how that sort of starts to sink in during earnings season. forlet:, from new york, romaine and myself, that does it. ♪

♪ welcome to "bloomberg technology." i am emily chang in san francisco. stocks surged this morning on hopes that the pandemics reaching its peak, then sunk back into the red by the close as new york state and the u.k. reported a jump in daily deaths. 850 reported in the last 24 hours in the